Russia's military operations in Crimea and on Ukraine's border suggest the country's poorly resourced armed forces have made improvements in recent years but would struggle to extend operations in central Europe and elsewhere, experts say. ...
"When I think of the Russian military, I think corrupt, conscripted and decrepit," Thompson said.
Of course, I think it is good because it includes a number of points I like to make: Crimea was not a real military operation (but it was an effective operation); Ukraine is weak and close to Russia, making Russia's military threat credible; Russia's decent armed forces are limited, which limits Russian objectives in a real military campaign; and Russia's military is not good enough to push West into Central Europe where more effective NATO militaries will oppose them.
But I keep going back and forth on what Putin will do in eastern Ukraine.
Objectively, based on my own back-of-the-envelope calculations, I think Russia would have trouble defeating a Ukraine that resists, if you include the pacification that would have to follow a seizure of the Ukraine's eastern bulge.
But Russians are pretty good at calculating correlation of forces. They may judge differently. Whether or not I am right or they are right would be irrelevant to the decision to invade.
And Russian nationalism might push Putin to invade if violence breaks out. Putin might not want to invade, but his political survival might rely on not resisting that nationalistic outpouring.
Russia still seems to hope for a subliminal invasion that rides their Spetsnaz operations to a separatist coup followed by a fake referendum in eastern Ukraine followed by a request to Russia for fraternal assistance to defend eastern Ukraine (followed by eventual annexation).
Until the last few days, it seemed as if the Russians were failing to simulate an uprising the way the Russians succeeded in Crimea. But the last few days seem to show a renewed Russian effort to achieve that Potemkin Secession:
The new seizures in Luhansk, 80 miles east of the centre of the rebellion in Donetsk, suggest that the separatists are continuing the pattern of occupations that has spread across eastern Ukraine over the past month.
If Ukraine cannot manage to counter this renewed Russian effort by retaking eastern Ukrainian cities and government buildings with their own assets and using minimal force, Russia may yet manage to take the east while denying that they are invading Ukraine (whether the Russians deny that their operation is an "invasion" or whether they deny they are moving troops into "Ukraine"--likely both).
We need to bolster Ukraine's ability to retake the east from Putin's subliminal invasion, resist a Russian invasion, resist a Russian occupation of Ukrainian territory, and potentially retake Crimea.
This effort (assuming Ukrainians are ready to fight for their country) exploits the fact that while Putin boasts that his military is freaking awesome based on the Crimea Operation, his military is largely corrupt, conscripted, and decrepit. He shouldn't want to put his boasts to a real test.
