Friday, October 18, 2013

Imperial Overstretch

I never bought the idea that America could succumb to the problem of imperial overstretch--when the costs of maintaining an empire exceed the benefits. But what if the empire isn't overseas?

The idea never made sense to me. Most basically, we aren't an empire. And throughout the post-World War II period we have reduced our overseas presence when circumstances allowed it. We just haven't had an empire that we felt compelled to defend despite escalating costs. In the post-Cold War period, our overseas commitments have declined further.

As to the burden of our military efforts, as a percent of our GDP, our military spending continues to decline rather than increase.

And our defense spending continues to decline as a percent of our spending which is moving heavily toward non-defense spending.


In what world is our defense spending the primary burden on our finances?

If there is imperial overstretch, it is the federal government's conquest of American state and local governments. Can this empire be maintained when our deficits have been well over a trillion dollars every year since President Obama took office?

The president believes he "won" the government shutdown battle. Another such victory and we will be undone:

The Republican Party may be frustrated by its inability to halt the growth of the welfare state. But congressional Democrats will probably soon find themselves equally frustrated by their inability to get voters to pay for it.

Take comfort that our republic survived before the federal government was the dominant force in domestic spending.

UPDATE: I should note that when the final numbers are in, the 2013 fiscal year that ended in September will end up with a deficit of less than 700 billion dollars. But that number is not huge only by comparing it to other Obama era deficits. Worse, the projections indicate that deficits will eventually climb again. So unless spending is kept under control for decades on end, don't pop the champagne (on the expense account) yet.