China may not snarl at Taiwan as their charm offensive proceeds, but the teeth are bared nonetheless:
More than 20,000 Chinese soldiers, sailors and airmen carried out a boisterous joint-operation exercise this month, with Taiwan as the apparent simulated target of a Normandy-style invasion.
Code-named Mission 2013B, the exercises are the third installment this year of a series of military drills. Participating in the exercise are ground troops from the 42nd Army of the Guangzhou Military Region command — the military’s crack force that was the main fighting unit during the Korean War and the 1979 invasion of Vietnam. ...
Another emphasis is to commandeer and mobilize large civilian transportation assets including the regional railway, highway and civil aviation systems and industries that will participate in future operations.
It is interesting that civilian transportation assets didn't include shipping. That's the obvious civilian asset needed for an amphibious operation when China's naval amphibious forces aren't big enough to do more than assault the Pescadores Islands (or other small islands unrelated to the Taiwan dispute in the East China Sea or South China Sea). Otherwise, China's dedicated amphibious lift is only big enough for supporting roles rather than being the main effort.
So except for assaults on the Pescadores to open up a staging area for attacks on the main island or the mouth of the Tamshui (or Tamsui) River north of Taipei in support of a major airborne drop around the capital, I don't expect a Normandy-style invasion.
No, I expect those unmentioned civilian shipping assets to be the means for the landing of the bulk of China's invasion force on Taiwan.
As I recently noted, Taiwan expects that China's force modernization progress means that by 2020 the Chinese will be able to hold American forces at bay long enough for China to conquer Taiwan.
That's always been the basis of my thinking about China's invasion threat, of course.
So there are choices to put off that date.
We can improve our ability to quickly penetrate China's anti-ship assets that could keep us away. That's AirSea Battle.
Taiwan can improve their ability to fight so they can hold as long as it takes for us to reach Taiwan with effective support. Could this include unofficial American air power?
Taiwan can deploy their own nuclear deterrent. If people in the West fall over themselves justifying Iranian and North Korean efforts to go nuclear, how could they reject Taiwan's case?
Taiwan could seek to overthrow the communist government in China so that China no longer wants to invade Taiwan.
Or we could deploy our forces back to Taiwan so they are there to begin with. That would have to be accompanied by a Taiwanese declaration of independence, I think. This would lead to war, so I don't think we would do this.
