Thursday, October 24, 2013

David Didn't Wait for Goliath to Die of Old Age

In a sense, a Taiwanese sense of inevitable victory is a good thing psychologically given their position next to a hostile leviathan bent on their subjugation. But I do hope they understand that they need to hold their island democracy until the correlation of governing forces turn their way. Otherwise, Taiwan could have a long interregnum between democracy as a subjugated province of autocratic China.

This is interesting from Strategypage:

Taiwan has been the major target of ... Chinese economic and international pressure for decades and remains independent and defiant. China considers its efforts to regain control of Taiwan as successful. Slow but steady brings eventual victory and resistance is futile. The Taiwanese are also Chinese (at least culturally, ethnically it’s a different story) and believe the long game favors them. That’s because the Taiwanese believe democracy will outlast the communist police state that rules China. Recent history would seem to favor the Taiwanese, but the Chinese communists have much to lose if democracy gains a foothold in China and are determined to hang on to their power and wealth. That is growing increasingly difficult as the corruption and mismanagement so typical of communist police states continues to anger Chinese.

How comforting will it be for generations of Taiwanese living under Peking's rule to hope that their grandchildren will benefit from the inevitable defeat of the communist police state.

If Taiwan can't build a military sufficient to deter a Chines invasion or to resist Chinese pressure, Taiwan needs to go on strategic offense using their own ability to influence the mainland to lessen the burden on their democracy outlasting China's police state by shortening the reign of that police state.

When all alternatives but one have been ruled out, the last one left--no matter how unlikely it seems--is the one you need to pursue, no?