The Winter War of 2022 Fails to Avoid an Ugly War

Ukraine's valor allowed them to survive Russia's initial invasion without being defeated and conquered. But we're past the valor stage and going into the production stage of war.

Strategypage paints a picture better than the visible results:

Russian use of poorly trained troops and shortages of supplies and modern weapons means the Ukrainian forces are more effective. This has helped the Ukrainians succeed during their current counteroffensive in southern Ukraine. That means Russian forces are facing better trained, equipped and led Ukrainian units which advance against even prepared Russian defenses because the Russian troops defending these fortified zones are equipped with less capable artillery and shortages of ammunition.

Ground isn't being taken in significant amounts. But yes, Russia is losing troops and equipment. And some of the terrain gained is potentially significant. There are stories of a Russian unit being destroyed, of retreating Russians being fired on by Russian artillery when mistaken for Ukrainians advancing, and of Russia thinning out its front to bolster the units facing the southern Ukrainian counteroffensive.

I admit that it feels like Ukraine has finally ground down and hollowed out the Russians enough to begin to significantly push Russia's ground forces back. At some point, Russia's army problems could cascade and lead to a break in Russia's line. If Ukraine can exploit that, Russian morale could collapse on a significant part of the front. 

"Could" and "if" are doing a lot of work in that scenario, of course. But unless Russia can run the clock out by buying time with their fortifications and troops' lives, I suspect Ukraine could achieve that. I'm more uncertain of how much Ukraine could exploit any break because of lack of time and possible lack of reserve units. 

Early in the war I hoped Ukraine could pounce on Russia's huge mistakes of the initial invasion:

The result has been a demoralized Russian army suffering huge casualties that lacks replacements or reinforcements; and an energized Ukrainian population. There is an opening for Ukraine to counter-attack and inflict a major battlefield defeat on the Russians while they reel from the failures. If Ukraine has the units, weapons, and supplies to exploit this moment.

But all that could change if Ukraine can't exploit their edge by ending the war, either after a major victorious counter-attack or simply at the negotiating table before Russia can fix their failures.

Yes, Ukraine did exploit that for local counteroffensives that liberated significant territory. But it took until June 2023 before Ukraine began its long-heralded big push. Yet despite giving Russia time to regroup, Russia's military could still collapse under pressure; but in the long run has the size advantage. Especially in a long war of attrition that looks nothing like magical future war--as I discussed weeks before the war. So as a general rule it's hard to argue against Russia's size advantage. But does that advantage necessarily lie with Russia in this war? 

As I addressed in this post about Russia's population and GDP advantage leading to victory, 

On people, you'd think so. But the Iran-Iraq War suggests otherwise. Iran had three times the population while Iraq had the money to build material superiority. Iran had far higher willingness to fight and die. But after years of relentless Iranian offensives, during which Iran lost twice as many troops as Iraq, Iran's morale broke. It was not so simple to say Iran could suffer 3 times the casualties. Indeed, one would have thought superior Iranian fanaticism would make the casualty endurance higher than 3:1. But that did not happen.

And the West's vastly superior GDP is arming and supporting Ukraine. Maybe Russia has the long-term advantage. Perhaps even probably when you factor in doubts about NATO willingness to support Ukraine for the long run. But I don't assume so. 

I worry Russia may run out the clock on the time Ukraine has to break some defenders and fully exploit it before Russia's army can recover. I don't know how long Ukraine's troops and people will be willing to start over from scratch in new offensives. I had hoped Russia's ground forces were ripe for collapse last autumn. But Ukraine lacked the ability to launch a big strike after the small but successful Kharkiv and Kherson counteroffensives. Pity. 

UPDATE (Wednesday): The length of time it took Ukraine to build a strategic reserve to launch a sustained counteroffensive surprised me, as I expected early in the war:

Let us hope that we don't have a replay of this tragic conversation in 1940:

Churchill asked General Gamelin, "Where is the strategic reserve?" which had saved Paris in the First World War. "There is none", Gamelin replied. 

The Ukrainians have been smart this war. I cannot believe that Ukraine has not built a strategic reserve. Even at the price of asking outmanned and outgunned Ukrainian troops to desperately hold the line in the Donbas.

So far the repercussions aren't fatal. But it certainly has a tragic element given the failure to be able to exploit Russia's failure.

UPDATE (Thursday): Ukraine's recent attacks on Russian forces in the Crimean Peninsula feel like shaping operations designed to push Russian naval and air defenses east. Could Ukraine be preparing a Kherson front offensive? 

That would exploit Russia's thinning of troops, fewer fortifications, and longer Russian lines of supply. This offensive would require underwater bridges in place supplemented by pontoon bridges built after the attack begins. The river crossing would be supplemented by airmobile and amphibious forces. And we'd see a surge of special forces, partisan, and air attacks. 

That's what I'd want to do. Does Ukraine have the capabilities?

UPDATE (Saturday): This article notes the recent increase in Ukrainian attacks on Russian targets in occupied Crimea. Why?

Military experts say it is essential for Ukraine to keep up its attacks on targets in Crimea to degrade Russian morale and weaken its military.

Hmmm. If the purpose was only to degrade morale and weaken Russia's military, I think targets closer to the front would be more productive.

I have to believe Ukraine's attacks are considered essential for something more specific.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

Weekend Data Dump

Monday was 9/11. I don't forget the date, whether the original here in America or the Benghazi sequel. After losing the Afghanistan war--needlessly--the jihadis still want to kill us. Our government is more worried about Trump supporters. So I assume the jihadis are plotting to kill us, figuring they can pursue us out of Afghanistan. So yeah, I remember 9/11. Because our Islamist enemies haven't forgotten. 

Well it's not as if Brandt murdered someone with an evil gun! Ah, justice.

Got back from a fun trip to Vegas with a couple friends and apartment-mates from college. Nice restaurants, Mad Apple show, much gambling and drinking. My gambling is a Vegas only thing, but I do enjoy it with the glitz of the Strip. And I can say that introducing Blackjack after fully learning the rules made it a better experience. Maybe I'll try to figure out the mysteries of Craps--which to me looks like a Black Hole for money--for next year.

Australia a provider of security and not only a consumer: "The [U.S.] Navy recently rearmed a warship with a missile at a port in southeast Australia, a sign of its increasing logistics options Down Under."

I assume the vast majority of the operations were recon or support for local allies: "U.S. troops have conducted 308 missions against the Islamic State group in Iraq and Syria so far this year, including 36 missions in both countries during August, according to U.S. Central Command, or CENTCOM." Still, the war on terror isn't over, is it?

Just in case things get hairy in post-coup Niger, America is moving "personnel and assets from Air Base 101 in Niamey, Niger’s capital, to Air Base 201 in Agadez, a facility in the central part of the country[.]"

G20 to counter China's Belt and Road trade routes. Italy pulls out of B & R; and India and Saudi Arabia back the new initiative. But it is just a plan. We'll see. But so much for the notion that China "flipped" the Saudis. Tip to Instapundit.

I assume Biden will declare it a national park and end that hope: "A world-beating deposit of lithium along the Nevada–Oregon border could meet surging demand for this metal, according to a new analysis." You doubt me? Tip to Instapundit.

I imagine the whales would rather take their chances with oil production than offshore wind farms.  Tip to Instapundit.

Remainer throne-sniffers pine for imperial glory--within someone else's empire. Yeah. The proto-imperial EU yearns to remove the prefix. That is not in America's interest.

Factional fighting inside Lebanon's largest Palestinian "refugee camp". It's a city. You'd be hard pressed to find anyone who fled there. And it is a base to dominate the host, Lebanon.

Trying to integrate space-, cyber-, and electronic warfare in ground combat operations. Let's hope the Army assets integrating, analyzing, exploiting, and distributing all that information aren't missile magnets.

Will the M1E3 be lighter without losing protection?

This author, for one, welcomes arguments with "Europe." Don't worry, he says! Appreciate the differences! Feh. Europeans are fine. Let them disagree and make their case. But as I always say (and I know it gets tiresome), always check the Definitions Section where "Europe" means the anti-American, proto-imperial European Union.

Of course, the major difference is that 22 years after Pearl Harbor, the Japanese were our ally and not trying to murder us. God help us all. I mean, what the actual F. And now I find out he already added injury to insult. The Taliban can only conclude Biden is paying reparations after losing the war, no? I can't argue with the Taliban on this issue. Tips to Instapundit.

Britain is upgrading its tiny tank fleet to the Challenger 3 model.

That sounds belatedly prudent: "NATO nations have agreed to a new action plan for bolstering the alliance’s industrial base, as governments scramble to restock their weapon arsenals while simultaneously sending military aid to Ukraine." This need was apparent early. Well before the war, in fact. And I'm glad it is a NATO rather than an EU project.

Spongeworthy: "The Swedish government said Monday it wants to increase its defense budget by 28%, putting it on track to reach the military spending target 2% of gross domestic product set by the NATO alliance, which the Scandinavian country is preparing to join." Sweden is meeting (tip to Instapundit) my requirement to be a producer and not just a consumer of alliance security.

The entire "fleet": "New Zealand’s Defence Ministry has issued a request for information to replace nearly the entire naval fleet, which currently includes nine ships in six different classes." The fleet's flagship is a replenishment vessel. Still, good. 

Interesting: "The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on September 11 that Belarus plans to create its own private military company (PMC) out of Wagner Group fighters who remained in Belarus."

Ukraine took control of the Boiko Black Sea offshore oil platforms that Russia had taken in 2015.

Xi wants power above all else. Maintaining the CCP monopoly of political power is the primary objective. And Xi is the party. This structure could help us if Xi is risk-averse abroad to maintain power--or hurt us.

The actual assault on "our democracy". Remember, our democracy requires rule of law. Fauci in prison orange would be a good start to upholding the latter. Tip to Instapundit.

Shockingly unclear on the concept of public relations stunt. PRO TIP: Long EV trips are easier with armed federal agents to get to the head of the recharging line. Tip to Instapundit.

I never dreamed that our own government would twist and expand powers intended to protect us from foreign enemies into an assault on Americans: "The government wants to collect tens of millions of tweets and cross-reference them with geolocations and credit scores, not so that it can protect Americans from Islamic terrorism or domestic extremism, but in order to exercise power." And worse, private entities willingly serve as accomplices for the assault on Americans. That was a failure of imagination--or perhaps common sense--on my part. When jihadis strike us at home, will the thug bureaucrats who decided our freedom is the enemy pay a price? Tip to Instapundit.

Will Russia defy Chinese concerns and trade nuclear missile technology for North Korean ammunition?

Ukraine will produce the Swedish CV90 which can be made in a lot of variants.

China is weakening. It's past strategy hit its limits, including: "Over the last 40 years, and particularly in the two decades straddling the turn of the millennium, China built its economy by exploiting its massive labour force." I noted some time ago that putting the most efficient peasant into the least efficient factory will dramatically increase GDP.

Not gonna lie. I'm not at all upset with Senator Tuberville holding up flag officer promotions to support rule of law. Heck, that's one way to get a needed purge. If Biden wants to promote them, I'm suspicious. Civilian oversight is a bitch, eh. 

The planned M1E3 Abrams weight "might" be reduced by 10-15 tons with a smaller turret using an auto-loader. It's still an evolutionary design. Will the eventual Abrams replacement continue that path? And is that really the right choice?  We'll see if my thoughts on the issue get published.

Taliban 2.0 have waged a "systematic assault" on the Afghan people. Why the article would say "including women and girls" if they mean "especially" is beyond me. Also, the Taliban 2.0 hate the West: "Two years after Joe Biden’s botched withdrawal from Afghanistan and 22 years after 9/11, top Taliban leaders are still encouraging jihad – even as the White House continues to send pallets of cash to the country." Tell me this jihadi hate doesn't shock you.

Forward line of defense: "Australia and the Philippines agreed to joint patrols in the South China Sea on Friday as the two countries elevated their ties to a strategic partnership."

One problem with debating now and declaring that we will defend Taiwan is that Taiwan may use that kind of clear guarantee to do things that provoke or tempt China to attack Taiwan. 

No doubt this kind of predictive tool has advanced greatly from the days when you could predict war based on pizza deliveries to the Pentagon. But it can lull you if the enemy knows what you are measuring.

Good: "The U.S. Air Force is finding ways to increase the number of airfields it can take off from in the Pacific—and wants more money to build out airfields and rebuild overgrown WWII airfields." Add baskets!

Th F**k-Up Fairy has a vacation home in Yemen. 

The F-15EX will have continental air defense missions duties; conduct high-volume strike missions; and be able to carry hypersonic missiles. I wonder if the plane has frontal stealth that the Silent Eagle proposal used.

Russia's defenses could collapse at some point on the front. But it is difficult to predict when or if that will happen. It could happen. Russia's army has cracks. But Ukraine has to hit them hard enough to shatter them. And soon. I worry Russia may run out the clock on the time Ukraine has to break some defenders and fully exploit it before Russia's army can recover. I don't know how long Ukraine's troops and people will be willing to start over from scratch in new offensives. I had hoped Russia's ground forces were ripe for collapse last autumn. But Ukraine lacked the ability to launch a big strike after the small but successful Kharkiv and Kherson counteroffensives. Pity.

Will Russia's regions declare independence? Yes, Russia is an empire--with largely contiguous conquests rather than the classic overseas colonies. I guess it depends on how Russified the regions are.

Good Lord: "More than 5,000 people are known to have died and thousands more are missing after devastating floods swept through the Libyan port city of Derna." Flooding is the last kind of disaster I expected in Libya.

Tar. Feathers: "An outraged parent and gun rights groups are speaking out against an Alabama elementary school that suspended a first-grader, reportedly for making a finger gun." In elementary school my neighborhood looked like an urban warfare training center in use. We had lots of purchased (I had an M-16) and created weapons (nobody sold light machine toy guns, so I built one complete with bipod). We built a wooden M-113. We had shooting rules and used homemade smoke bombs to cross gaps without being seen and shot. What the Hell has happened? Tip to Instapundit.

Mere border walls are for wussies: "Two land mines exploded early Wednesday along the Lebanon-Syria border wounding three Syrians trying to illegally cross into Lebanon, the Lebanese army said in a statement Wednesday."

Truth in advertising: “Beware of Democrats, the enemy of the working people.”

Part of this depends on how quickly Sweden can replace donated planes with new planes: "The Swedish government is considering donating Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine to help it fight Russia, Swedish public radio (SR) reported on September 12, citing unnamed sources."

White House: Lovely little news organization you have there. It would be a shame if it was throttled for peddling "disinformation."  The funny thing is, certain media didn't need to be told to support the White House.

We can't possibly be allowed to hear arguments that there is no climate crisis. After all, how can governments justify "climate emergency" lockdowns and powers to radically restructure our economies and indeed societies (at great cost to the plebes while the wealthy carry on as usual) without stoking crisis-induced mass hysteria? Climate activists demand we obey them and admonish us to "Go and emit no more."

The retreat was allegedly panicked and in chaos: "At least 27 Russian soldiers in Donetsk attempting to retreat from their positions were killed by friendly fire from their comrades, according to a Ukrainian lawmaker." But clearly there was no collapse of the front. This is only significant if this reflects a lot of Russian units on the edge of doing the same. 

From the "Well, Duh" files: "The main ingredient in popular over-the-counter decongestant found in pharmacy aisles under familiar brands like Sudafed PE, Vicks DayQuil, Theraflu and others isn’t effective, according to advisers to the Food and Drug Administration." That was apparent the first time I tried it. I stopped wasting money on it early on.

Taiwan and Japan are shadowing the PLAN's Shandong Carrier Strike Group that is operating in the Philippine Sea.

A U.S. Navy mine warfare ship visited Japan's Ishigaki Island which is quite close to Taiwan.  The Okinawa government protested the first visit from a Navy ship since 2009.

The Dutch Navy is adding Tomahawk missiles? When did it lose them? Because I thought it had them before.

And now for something completely different:
I get annoyed with Democrats for suddenly and fervently opposing Russia. And I get the quest for Republican legislative leverage. But I don't get conservatives seriously trying to undermine Ukraine's ability to defeat Russia's invasion. Will enough do to Ukraine what Democrats did to South Vietnam just because a Republican was president then? I say welcome the Democrats to their belated conversion to stopping the Russians and get on with winning. Don't be the party that loses Ukraine.

China worries Taiwan could cripple its invasion logistics like Ukraine hammered the Russian invasion. China is looking at this and hopes to win quickly before its logistics can be hammered. Is that a fantasy plan? Or do we have to go to the Definitions Section for what "win" means?

This is a major reason the original 2015 Iran nuclear deal is toothless: "The U.S. and three European allies have threatened Iran with another resolution at the U.N. nuclear watchdog's board demanding action on issues such as explaining uranium traces found at undeclared sites, but left open whether or when they might follow through." Iran can stretch out any questions for years. How is this preventing Iran from making progress toward nuclear weapons? Spoiler Alert: It isn't and was predictable. Although even I underestimated how long Iran could play these games.

Whenever doubts about the F-35 creep into my mind I remind myself that the Israelis like them: "Israel recently ordered another 25 F-35s. Israel already has fifty, organized into two squadrons." Of course, the Israelis confirmed that the networked, massively computerized F-35 could be hacked. That worried me. I hope that is fixed. And that we never get complacent, assuming it is fully secure.

Discussing Ukraine's strike on Russia's navy in Sevastopol. This is good. But unless it helps Ukraine's army march into Crimea, it will in the end just be an embarrassment for Russia that doesn't matter.

Was Xi Jinping too worried about what might happen if he leaves the country for the G20 meeting? "There are signs of turmoil in Chinese domestic politics." It's the first time he's missed the high-profile gathering. Before the G20 there was a meeting of actual and retired CCP leaders. Xi faced an unusual pre-planned "reprimand" from the "retired elders".

Interesting: "The U.S. military has resumed counterterrorism missions in Niger, flying drones and other aircraft out of air bases in the country more than a month after a coup temporarily halted all those activities there, the head of U.S. Air Forces for Europe and Africa said Wednesday."

China's defense budget is more like $700 billion per year rather than $300. The earlier estimates never seemed plausible to me. 

Ukraine's suicide-drone war against the Russian Black Sea fleet. Some people are overly impressed. FFS, this is not a Dreadnought Moment. That arrived with networked-anti-ship missiles. Anti-ship missiles are better than what are basically slow, surface, guided torpedoes. Stop throwing panties at USVs, people! Heck, wouldn't missile-carried torpedoes do a better job?

Keep out: "A joint U.S.-Swedish military exercise this week in Sweden’s archipelago in the Baltic Sea sends a strong signal of NATO’s resolve in the face of Russian aggression, defense officials from the two countries said."

Again, don't try to tell me the Iraq War created the Iranian threat to Iraq: "Iran continues to be the main threat for neighboring Iraq. There are many reasons for this, some of them quite ancient." The Iraq War has helped Iraq resist Iran by empowering the Shia majority. If you are that worried about Iraq--and not just to score political points for last decade--defend Iraq.

Starlink. And Starshield is coming.

The Navy is edging toward seeking more base access in the Philippines.

Russia's war to capture Ukraine's natural resources. Add in Ukraine's people given Russia's bad demographics (yes, Ukraine's demographics are bad, too; but adding Ukraine--and not Russia's mass kidnapping of Ukrainian children--resets the decline to a higher level).

AOC (D-Ditzville) was unavailable for comment weeping.

Is a new war between Armenia and Azerbaijan imminent? Could Iran pounce, too? Uh oh: "Azerbaijan’s military is building up its forces near Armenia and has painted its vehicles with “war markings” similar to ones used by the Russian army before it invaded Ukraine." Unless Russia is willing to nuke Azerbaijan to protect its client, Armenia, war is coming. I suppose Russia could try using its air power, which is little used in Ukraine. We'll see if Armenia has an answer to Azerbaijan's 2020 effective use of aerial drones.

Eielson Air Force Base in Alaska will get a small nuclear reactor to power it.

Is America sleepwalking through a BRICS-led change in geopolitics? I think the author is using old information: "As regards China and the U.S., there is today approximate equilibrium, but the relative trajectory is clear: China is ascending and the U.S. is declining." Is China still rising?

Assessing China's new 054B frigate.  

Is Putin going to throw masses of mobilized men into the meat grinder to win the Winter War of 2022? Or he's going to send future POWs to the front when they surrender en masse, I suppose.

We've already seen that the demand for white hate crimes far exceeds the supply. Now we see that the demand for "systemic racism" exceeds the supply. But trust the science! Two decades of "extreme negligence," “incompetence” and “false results” in Eric Stewart's research. Hey, it paid well. Tip to Instapundit.

In regard to Ukraine's successful attack on Russia's navy in Sevastopol harbor, are my worries really out of line? the Russians have been at war for more than a year and a half! It's not like it was a Sunday morning attack during peacetime. I mean, when missiles in shipping containers are a thing and civilian traffic is routine? And let's not even get started on hypersonics.

I keep hoping we are living through Peak Stupid and that things will get better. But sadly, Democrats--"dangerous zealots with titles before, and letters after, their names"--think they are brilliant.

This isn't actually piracy. It's grand theft: boat. But perhaps the headline is just premature the way things are going in California. Tip to Instapundit.

At the very least there are grounds for an impeachment inquiry. Tip to Instapundit.

For the life of me I have no idea why the White House would put its fingerprints on what it would get anyway: "Biden White House spokesperson Ian Sams sent out a letter to news organizations Tuesday, giving instructions on how they should cover (or non-cover, as it were) the Republican impeachment inquiry[.]" Via Instapundit.

I had assumed the Russians deliberately missed that British recon aircraft flying in international airspace over the Black Sea a year ago. Good grief: "An unarmed RAF surveillance aircraft, operating in international airspace over the Black Sea, was fired on by an incompetent – or deranged – Russian pilot. The first missile failed to achieve target lock; the second fell harmlessly into the sea." But for faulty missiles, we would have had a very dangerous direct Russian attack on a NATO military asset. While NATO doesn't want war. Russia can't handle a larger war. Has Russia corrected potential communications and personnel problems that led to a shooting incident?

Good Lord, Libyan flood deaths could be 20,000.

INDOPACOM air commander: "Compared to the capabilities of the U.S., and those of its allies and partners, the general says that the J-20 does not constitute a 'dominating aircraft at this point' — a statement which is broadly in line with insights he made on the type last year." The J-20 is a frontal-only stealth plane, if my understanding is correct. Along with other weaknesses.

Having a common potential enemy does wonders for relationships: "India will be serving as a future maintenance hub for U.S. Navy assets in the Indo-Pacific, according to a joint U.S.-India statement issued last week on the sidelines of G20 in New Delhi."

Turkey is gaining strength in the Black Sea. Turkey has a long history of losing wars against Russia when Russia dominated the Black Sea and bordered Turkey. Will this development lead Turkey to re-embrace NATO or reinvigorate its efforts to restore a soft Ottoman Empire?

LOL!

 

Russia and China look at future war. Although Russia might want to spend a little more time on next month's war under the circumstances. I haven't read it yet but don't want to forget the link.

I recently found an old draft post that I have no idea why I did not publish. So I scheduled it for publishing. [HERE] I should go through the 100+ draft posts I have to see if any other ones could be published.

I suppose that's good: "The U.S. Air Force has developed a method of launching AGM-158 JASSMs (Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile) from C-130 transport aircraft." I guess we ended that persistent shortage of air transportation our power projection needs require. Woo.

No new mask mandates. I agree with this: "Yes, well-fitted, high-quality masks appropriately worn can decrease the spread of respiratory viruses, but that doesn’t mean mandating them is important or that they don’t cause accompanying harm." If you want to wear a mask, wear it. But don't pretend a mandate will stop the spread in the general population. I don't need or want to wear one at this point. Tip to Instapundit.

The Abraham Accords still have a chance for making the Middle East a less violent region. Or at least focusing the violence on real threats to the peace.

What happens if Ukraine becomes a nuclear state again. Ukraine had nukes when the USSR broke apart, and gave them up for Russian promises not to invade and American and British promises to prevent Russia from conquering it. Unlike North Korea and Iran, Ukraine has demonstrable need for nukes to survive. If Ukraine doesn't enter NATO--and if Russia doesn't recognize the real threat to Russia--Ukraine will have tons of incentive to become a nuclear-armed state again. Although the risk is that the prospect of Ukraine going nuclear will give a myopic Russia incentive to mobilize and conquer Ukraine before it can go nuclear. 

Journalism dies in wokeness. Tip to Instapundit.

I think an indicator of adulthood is the ability to avoid yelling out or even reacting when your cat is puking up her food on the carpet because you know any commotion will just get her to move and puke in multiple places.

Spare parts: "You can add 'industrial-size' 3D printers to the list of items the U.S. has provided Ukraine to help it combat Russian forces."

Interesting: "Two cargo vessels were headed to Ukrainian ports on September 16, the first to use a temporary corridor to sail into Black Sea ports and load grain for African and Asian markets[.]" Will an international escort flotilla be needed for the "humanitarian corridor"? 

Idiocracy: Credentialed Morons Edition: "the damage has been remarkably self-inflicted, reflecting the reckless growth of a set of progressive dogmas, tough on police and permissive toward criminals and vagrants while imposing ever more burdens on what is left of the middle class." Effing up a wet dream since the 1990s [ADDED:]

Lemonade: "North Korea is converting 400 of its 1950’s era MiG-17 and MiG-19 fighters into cruise missiles." I suggested Israel do this with their ancient A-4s and other old planes to generate sufficient strike sorties to hit Iran's nuclear weapons infrastructure.

The awful 2015 Iran nuclear deal suffered from the complete inability of the West to compel Iran to even pretend to follow its provisions, as the Iran-IAEA agreement compliance illustrates: "The United Nations nuclear watchdog on Saturday condemned the 'disproportionate and unprecedented' move by Iran to withdraw accreditation from several of its most experienced inspectors." The IAEA will yell "halt" again (a new resolution), even more loudly.

So editing for length is white supremacy? Face it, if the essay length was a minimum, that would be racist, too. Actual racism can escape consequences in the fog of BS racism charges. Tip to Instapundit.

Disaggregate to Survive; Aggregate to Fight [FROM THE TIME CAPSULE]

NOTE: While looking for an old post to update with a chart I recently found (that troop density post linked in the body below), I discovered this 2018 post in draft form. I have no idea why I didn't publish it. It is possibly more relevant now given the stalemate in the Winter War of 2022. So here it is:
____
Winning battles requires massing killing power. When muscle power ruled, massing killing power meant massing troops. Archers, javelins, and catapults made the massing a little tougher but the basic equation held with combined arms to counter those killing options. As gunpowder increased range the troops had to spread out to survive the ability to mass power via firepower. That firepower range and now accuracy is increasing and so disperal to survive must continue its long historical trend.

As This essay by Robert Scales is pretty good. And dispersing while remaining a cohesive unit is the natural response to increasingly accurate and long range fires capabilities. But details remain to be filled in:

The challenge of disaggregated forces is to maintain the ability to mass fires and maneuver from dispersed positions. It can be done. Late in World War II, the Wehrmacht perfected the ability to assemble attack formations on very short notice from scattered clusters of small units. Disaggregation is made more feasible thanks to the micro-electronic revolution. Huge and vulnerable Cold War communications nodes can now be replaced with small discrete facilities, easy to hide and relatively invulnerable to detection. Thanks to the network, yesterday’s air defense and surface artillery complexes are much smaller and capable of operating as discrete (in some cases individually emplaced) weapons. Dispersed formations can only be kept cohesive and capable of massing on demand if a robust cyber network ties them together. Dominate the cyber spectrum and maneuver at will. Lose it and suffer the consequences of defeat in detail.

Just as fronts once covered by a man standing a yard from his compatriots were replaced by strong points with the ground in between covered by direct and indirect fires, units may have to break down further. In theory this is possible given that troop density has dropped dramatically. But the increase in firepower has been accompanied by increases in persistent surveillance.

On defense the dispersed forces holding the front need to be mobile to avoid enemy precision firepower. And they need to be able to dig in deep when they do stop.

On defense disaggregated forces need the ability to fire in sufficient volume to destroy and slow enemy units entering the larger gaps. But they also need to be mobile to avoid counter-fire in the face of persistent enemy surveillance.

How will logistics and support formations enable the dispersed and constantly moving combat units continue the fight?

Will units--even support forces--that aren't mobile, armored, with active protection systems, and under the umbrella of defensive systems that shoot down missiles and shells be able to survive in that environment?

I just don't see fragile aircraft surviving over the battlefield. If ground forces are easily targeted, even aircraft hugging the ground will be visible. I don't think speed will provide protection in the face of persistent surveillance and precision weapons unless aerial movement is only done rapidly in gaps in enemy surveillance before the enemy can reform their surveillance over that part of the battle area.

To move the front forward, you have to mass to gain superiority over the defenders. But massing must mean massing effects rather than troops lest troops die in large numbers due to the factors that disperse the defense.  Fires and cyber directed at the main effort to break the enemy "line" will be how mass is achieved.

Will the force-to-space ratio get too high to allow maneuver even with shrinking numbers of soldiers in armies? Is there a limit to the range of weapons cheap enough to equip platoons and companies with to allow ever wider dispersal?
____

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

And ... Yada, Yada, Yada ... the Taliban Returned?

Winning a conventional war punches our ticket for the the next problems of defending the battlefield victory--including fighting to establishing rule-of-law governance, ideally with democracy. But those fights are qualitatively different than the major combat operations that got us there and it is folly to pretend they are the same.

Does America think of war as ending when the enemy is dispersed on the battlefield?

In a relatively rapid set of major combat operations the U.S. rid Afghanistan of the Taliban government and routed al Qaeda. When those operations were completed, in the minds of many, the war was over. What followed, by definition, was “not war.” Thus, U.S. strategy and attention lost focus, and the war dragged on. Ultimately, the U.S. withdrew, and the Taliban returned. [emphasis added] 

The author has a point that defending the win after major combat operations end doesn't end the struggle. But that misses the point that we really did win the war, with local allies helping us kill jihadis every day. For nearly twenty years! 

Don't "yada yada yada" the important prerequisite for the Taliban returning to power of America screwing the pooch and snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

I think the problem isn't so much a lack of strategic "focus" but demanding so much of our actual victories that we redefine them into defeats not worth defending at much lower cost than it took to win on the battlefield.

I mean, I agree with the author's basic point, really. I was pushing for rule of law in Iraq early on. The end of major combat operations was not the end of the fight as far as I was concerned.

But what follows major combat operations is a different job requiring different methods and very different rules of engagement. And pretending that is not true does us no favor in maintaining focus.

But sure, when the Winter War of 2022 "ends," the problem of Russia trying to control Ukraine does not end. We'll need to maintain focus on that.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

Making Pursuit of the Perfect Be the Enemy of Good and the Ally of Evil

Killing jihadis is good enough for American government work. The real solutions take generations to take hold. But the jihadis want to kill us right now.

Military support for African states is counter-productive? 

“Military action might suppress the problem of terrorism, but it will not relieve the underlying conditions that feed it,” according to the report. “Only improved governance can address these grievances, which means good governance is the foundation for long-term stability.”Military support for African states is counter-productive? "“Military action might suppress the problem of terrorism, but it will not relieve the underlying conditions that feed it,” according to the report. “Only improved governance can address these grievances, which means good governance is the foundation for long-term stability.”"

“It’s time to flip the script,” argue the report’s authors. “US policy in Africa has for too long prioritized short-term security to the detriment of long-term stability by prioritizing the provision of military security assistance. Yet this strategy has neither produced security in Africa nor reduced threats to the United States and its interests.”

Oh, BS. This isn't one or the other. And worse, it ridicules the achievable in favor of pursuing what is beyond our capacity to change in any time frame to be useful.

Sure, we need reformed Islam and/or rule of law that reduces corruption. But that's the long run. 

In the short run a lot of 9/11s can happen if we de-prioritize what can be done now. So yeah, suppress terrorism tomorrow by killing jihadis today while working for the long run. I mean, it's not like AFRICOM gets a lot of resources to over-militarize our policy.

Letting the quest for the perfect be the enemy of the good enough is no way to defend America.  

UPDATE: It strikes me that arguments like this are the foreign policy version of sending social workers instead of police for 9-1-1 calls for help.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

The Big Flashing Potemkin Sixth Fleet Display

America's newest carrier, Ford, sailed in the Mediterranean Sea under full publicity. Once, Sixth Fleet was focused on the Mediterranean Sea. That fleet is long gone. But it is convenient to reinforce the idea that the phantom fleet still exists.

Look at this!

The USS Ford is operating on deployment in support of the US Navy's 6th-Fleet Command, a division which oversees US Naval activity in many parts of Europe. Interestingly, however, by operating in Mediterranean waters near Greece, the USS Ford places itself with an ability to project power into critical parts of the Middle East and even the Black Sea. 

I noted long ago that the Sixth Fleet is gone. Well, Sixth Fleet is now the fleet that covers all European waters rather than only the Mediterranean Sea. And African waters in the west, I think. If it wasn't for missile defense destroyers assigned to the fleet it would be pretty scant. The Mediterranean Sixth Fleet exists mostly by assigning to it transiting warships going elsewhere.

This high profile sailing by Ford maintains the illusion that the mighty Sixth Fleet is over the horizon patrolling those waters:

After the Cold War, the once massive American 6th Fleet in the Mediterranean Sea disappeared. Except for a command ship the fleet just had transiting warships on the way to CENTCOM or on the way home. Their presence kept alive the image of a powerful fleet. And when Sixth Fleet was expanded to cover all of European waters, the small American naval presence even outside of the Mediterranean enhanced that image whenever the fleet number was mentioned.

But really, local European NATO states are sufficient to control the sea. 

And let's not even delve into the question of whether Ford is a waste of resources. 

Anyway, when someone tells you that America should demote Europe to focus on Asia, tell them, "Your wish is granted!"

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

The Strategy Fairy Grants Your Asia-First Wish!

Critics of helping Ukraine defeat Russia are claiming American involvement  in the war should be limited to focus on China. WT actual F? Are these people not paying attention? This is exactly what America is doing!

Abandon Ukraine to support Taiwan? 

Russia is no threat to dominate Europe — it cannot even subdue Kyiv, let alone threaten Berlin, Rome or Paris — so U.S. involvement in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict should be limited. On the other hand, a China in possession of Taiwan would come to dominate first the Indo-Pacific, the region from which much of the world’s future growth will emanate, and then the whole of the Asian continent. This would be nothing less than a geostrategic disaster for America.

Yet another entry in the Goldilocks War syndrome:

Some people will just never support the war we are in right now. It doesn't matter what the war is at the moment.

They will cover their opposition by saying they supported a past war that we won (or even a lost war) even when they opposed such wars at the time. Just listen to those who now claim that they supported the Gulf War or Afghanistan campaign or who even respect the soldiers who fought in Vietnam. It's just this war in Iraq they oppose.

They may even say that another problem is more severe and must be met first--possibly with force--before waging the war in question. North Korea and Iran spring to mind. But you can always be sure that if the issue they once said is more important comes up, there will be another problem that must be dealt with first.

Whether too hot or too cold, the question of a war to defend us is never just right. 

This is an approach to effectively helping our enemies that used to be practiced by the left:

I've long expected the "good war" in Afghanistan to become the new "bad war" once we achieved victory in Iraq. Even before the Iraq Surge began to show signs of progress, anti-war types giddy over their apparent progress in losing the Iraq War in the spring of 2007 even let this goal of losing in Afghanistan too slip out.

The line of thinking for these formerly pro-Afghan War types is that it is regrettably too late to focus on Afghanistan now. Sure, they've long argued we are "distracted" by Iraq from winning in Afghanistan, but they can hardly maintain that position now that we have stomped our enemies in Iraq, now can they? That might mean they'd have to support an actual war we are fighting right now!

I guarantee that if we abandon Ukraine that in another 5-10 years, these same people will say we need to abandon Taiwan to support Poland and Romania. Because Russia is much closer to Berlin, Rome, and Paris. And really, an amphibious assault is the most difficult operation to carry out and so a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would surely fail.

With a bonus "Let the Russians get the Baltic states 'back'" argument thrown in to make it a complete entry in the "understanding Russia" genre'.

Further, it is absolute unrealistic bullshit to frame aid to Ukraine as taking away money from Americans at home. American aid to Ukraine is responsible for less than $114 billion (per that author) of America's $32 trillion national debt.

Which is 0.36% of the total. 

Aid to Ukraine is a rounding error of our budget problem.

Yes, as the author is essentially arguing, Europe is the economy-of-force front while Asia is the main front. And this is exactly how we are treating Europe since we won the Cold War:

No American fleets roam the Mediterranean Sea or guard Atlantic supply lines. Aircraft don't darken the skies of Europe. The Army doesn't possess a multi-corps army to hold back the enemy. You want reduced American power in Europe to focus on Asia?

Done! 

That author says America must "acknowledge limits, make strategic choices, and set priorities." And this Asia-first approach is exactly what we are doing by helping Ukraine fight Russia--all to make sure Russia can't grow enough to make Europe a more significant front.

So yeah, the Strategy Fairy grants that author's wish. 

This author explains the basic weakness of that initial author's advice:

The West has had a choice since the 1990s of confronting Russia now or later. It has always chosen to delay, and faced a much worse threat as a result. 

Yeah. Because Russia is less of a threat every mile further east it is.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

Co-Dependency in Action in the Compassion-Industrial Complex

Humanitarian nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) have proliferated so much that they have become the logistics arm of civil wars and insurgencies. 

First of all, humanitarian aid is skimmed off to directly support violent factions operating where the NGOs work. 

Second, violent factions will demand protection money not to attack the NGOs. And even if the NGOs try to buy local muscle to protect them rather than pay protection money, the violent factions will intimidate or lure the guards into the violent faction.

Third, the humanitarian aid will be a good means of smuggling weapons into the fighting area.

And violent actors count on that societal safety net that is left after siphoning off aid to directly sustain their war to make their endless fighting tolerable by the people affected by war.  

Note how Yemen has played out for an example.

You could throw in UN peacekeeping forces in that safety net enabling low-level persistent warfare. Although the article says the benefits of peacekeeping missions are "positive and well established." Maybe. But I'm not so sure if it doesn't instead enable fighting to drag on in forever wars--or forever disorders--which inflame and entrench hatred.

Once NGOs were useful when they figuratively parachuted into a crisis and then packed up and left when the crisis was over. Now the NGOs are an industry. They exist to exist. So they never leave. Is that because the problem can't easily be solved or because the NGOs inhibit solving the problem?

NOTE: The image was made from DALL-E.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

From 9/11 to Fortress America After a Brief Stop in the Winter War of 2022?

Twenty-two years after the September 11, 2001 bloody terrorist attacks on America that fanatics on a mission from Allah carried out, America seems to have moved on to other threats that require only talking and preparing; with an aversion to facing current actual threats with action.

The Winter War of 2022 rages on. America's defeat in Afghanistan seems all but forgotten. I fear Americans would like to forget Ukraine, too, in order to "prepare for China," and just add another defeat so soon after America's skedaddle debacle out of Afghanistan.

Yes, the war in Europe inconveniently goes on.

Russia still attacks Ukraine in the east where its logistics are best; and defends in the south where Ukraine is counterattacking and making major efforts to cut Russia's longer supply lines to the Dnieper River and Crimea.

I want to stop Russia now because their "need" for a buffer in the west has no limits.

But the real focus is now on Ukraine's Western backers, especially America. Whether by design (seeking a nuanced "peace" without victory) or incompetence (how is it possible that is takes so long for America to send tanks and fighter planes to an ally at war for its very life?), Ukraine was denied the weapons to win after the Russian offensive culminated twice--once later in 2022 when its initial invasion was halted and smashed up; and the second time after the winter of 2023 depleted its hastily mobilized manpower.

It is odd. We knew we couldn't settle into Fortress America after 9/11 and went "over there" to minimize the need to fight them "over here." Especially given the worries right after the 2001 terror attacks, we've been amazingly successful. 

But after nearly blowing Iraq by withdrawing in 2011 (and I have doubts about whether we are willing to oppose Iran to maintain and expand our 2014-2017 win in Iraq War 2.0) and actually blowing Afghanistan in 2021, Americans increasingly reject opposing our long-time enemy Russia (remember the Cold War?) in Ukraine where other people are willing to fight and die to do the job for both them and us.

Yet the idea that Ukraine should be abandoned to pivot to face China is strong. Even as there are many who say whether or not China owns Taiwan is none of our business. 

UPDATE (Tuesday): Yeah:

Continued Western commitment to Ukraine cannot be guaranteed. Political constituencies in Europe and the United States are questioning long-term support for Ukraine. So far, such voices remain in the minority, but they are multiplying and becoming louder.

Remember, by helping but then abandoning Ukraine, it will be difficult to deter or defeat a future aggressor on another campaign area who will believe that in time we will falter again. 

Russia will be weakened to buy time in Europe to prepare. That's something. But China or another aggressor--and a future Russia--could be encouraged to strike.

UPDATE (Wednesday): Ukraine struck Sevastopol, apparently with sea drones and missiles:

 "We confirm a large landing vessel and submarine were hit. We do not comment on the means (used) for the strike," Ukrainian military intelligence official Andriy Yusov told Reuters after the attack, which took place early Wednesday.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

Weekend Data Dump

Not sure what to think about this: "Iraq's prime minister on Saturday inaugurated construction work on what is slated to become the first railway line connecting the country to neighbouring Iran, a major political and economic partner." Is this just an Iranian ploy to improve transportation to Syria?

Is the news too good to check that some tiny rocks recovered from the ocean may have come from outside the solar system? Tip to Instapundit.

This graph from the TDI illustrates the issue of firepower versus troop density trends that I occasionally mention:

Poland chooses the AH-64E. The Apache remains America's attack helicopter of choice. Attack helicopters seem like 21st century cavalry. Vulnerable to ground fire but valuable for pursuit or to rapidly react to and mass against enemy penetration of your own lines. Would the Army want helicopters if it had the money and responsibility for all flying objects that support the Army in combat?

Why do leftists hate people so much? I mean, they clearly want to punish us for our carbon sins. It's just a bizarre religious cult at this point. Now go and emit no more. I never expected to live in a utopia. I sure didn't expect dystopia, instead. I say, Helll no.

The Israeli assault across the Suez Canal in 1973. Can Ukraine do the same across the broad Dnieper River on the Kherson front?

More APCs, IFVs, and BFIST vehicles for the Army.

The standard Cosmology model is being undermined by data. Whatever. They can do what so much of the rest of "science" is essentially doing, convert to Astrology.

SpaceX works. So obviously the government will unleash Catch 22 and sue them for failing to obey all the sometimes conflicting laws until SpaceX submits and retreats into mediocrity.

I noted this exact thing last week: "At least a few people seem finally to be catching on that the basic idea behind 'homelessness' advocacy is to exploit an issue that brings forth great human empathy to generate vast taxpayer funds and then to not solve the problem." That author says the activists have a different welfare state objective. But it conveniently employs the activists, no? And the ill and/or addicted are still mere props. Tip to Instapundit.

Cities are hot? "A new study published in the scientific peer-reviewed journal, Climate, by 37 researchers from 18 countries suggests that current estimates of global warming are contaminated by urban warming biases." The science is never "settled." Via Instapundit.

Ukrainian air defenses continue to shoot down Russian drones attacking their country. Remember early in the year when a charge from the big Pentagon "leak" was that Ukraine would soon run out of air defense missiles?

Winning: "Russia's war on Ukraine triggered a massive brain drain, and the toll it will take on the economy is coming into clearer focus." Based on PPP, Russia's GDP could soon fall behind Indonesia's. I think PPP is over-used but it is a real trend. Tip to Instapundit.

Ukraine's attacks inside Russia are clearly moving from propaganda efforts to strategic warfare against military capabilities: "Ukraine said it carried out a drone strike on a factory on the outskirts of Moscow that manufactures microchips used in missile production, in a symbolically significant strike."

I assume this is a Russian effort to make sure the Chinese know the Russians aren't the worst ally China has: "Russia's defence minister has proposed to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un that their countries hold a naval exercise, along with China[.]"

Our moral and intellectual superiors in the federal government want to take away our stuff while they continue to use them (because they need them and we don't). This sounds so familiar. Oh yeah, "He has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harrass our people, and eat out their substance." Luckily, we can still vote them out. Can't we? Won't we?? Tip to Instapundit.

Interesting: "Researchers believe they’ve discovered the world’s largest asteroid impact crater in New South Wales, Australia."

It's kind of pathetic for Russia to seek help from North Korea: "Kim Jong-un will travel to Russia on an armoured train to sign a possible weapons deal with Vladimir Putin, according to US intelligence officials." North Korea will get food.

Australia wants unmanned naval vessels to scout for Chinese nuclear submarines in order to guide Australian attacks on them--including Chinese nuclear-armed subs that pose a threat to Australia. They'd be a force multiplier for Australia's future nuclear attack subs.

Is the Navy really being arrogant in downplaying unmanned vessels in favor of big carriers and nuclear attack subs? I'm already on record about the carrier part. Although I don't think it is "arrogance" at work. Tradition, sure. And perhaps conflating sea control with power projection. Or maybe just an unjustified belief that the latter is the biggest job in this age. Or too much faith that the carrier can't be hit or sunk. Which is both wrong and irrelevant. I do want more, cheaper ships. Ideally fighting networked. But I'm a little nervous about the robustness and security of a network needed to use unmanned ships successfully.

"Hiding" makes it sound like its actively avoiding us. We just can't find it. If it exists. Tip to Instapundit.

Smart Diplomacy®: " Iranian negotiators achieved another victory over the Americans by obtaining $16 billion for the release of five hostages and promises to reduce their nuclear weapons deliveries. Israeli officials are appalled at the continued gullibility of the Americans when dealing with Iran." Gullibility? No. Unrequited love. And the love of their life can do no wrong.

Grain War.

Massachusetts has called up the National Guard to deal with migrants taking advantage of the state's sanctuary cities. Troops!? Why isn't the state sending social workers? Tip to Instapundit.

Living in his own private Idaho. Meanwhile in the real world, the time bomb I've worried about is going off: "Net interest payments on America’s debt soared from about $350 billion in 2021 to nearly $800 billion today on an annualized basis." Via Instapundit.

Another case of changing definitions to alter perceptions of reality: "A large percentage of “active shooter” incidents are thwarted by armed citizens who sometimes don’t even fire their weapons, but those cases are no longer counted under President Joe Biden’s pro-gun control policies." Tip to Instapundit.

Are strategic nuclear torpedoes legal? If you are nuking a city I'm going to say you don't care. North Korea and Russia have them. For North Korea it may make sense to evade missile defenses. So Japan will need to beef up ASW detection between North Korea and Japan. But for Russia, what's the point? Unless their ICBMs don't work. 

Finally: "Japan’s Supreme Court on Monday dismissed Okinawa’s rejection of a central government plan to build U.S. Marine Corps runways on the island and ordered the prefecture to approve it despite protests by locals who oppose the American troops’ presence." The Marines want to move from its current facility that is a passive war crime waiting to happen.

Russia's faux alliance exercised on a small scale in Belarus. 

The U.S. may draw down the extra ground troop presence it sent to eastern NATO to reassure allies as Russia prepared to invade Ukraine.

The U.S.-China mil-to-mil contact freeze may be thawing. I don't think most of that contact helps us.

The Navy plans for a simply awesome DDG(X). I assume this will be cruiser-size. And I suspect it will become too expensive to build with the Navy's record. Network-centric warfare recedes into the future with these plans.

This was around when I went to basic training for soldiers who couldn't pass the initial push-up test: "A remedial course designed to prepare potential Army recruits for basic training will become a permanent part of the service’s strategy in overcoming its sagging enlistment numbers, officials said." The Michigan Guard had a different program I went to in 1987 before I went to basic that was a mini-basic that showed you what it was like. That was extremely useful and got me to get ready for basic training.

Sweden brings geography and an advanced defense industry to NATO. And capable air and naval power that can help allies from Norway to Finland and south to Poland. Sweden is only the most obvious example of how Russia has created enemies with its paranoid preemptive hostility.

Allies in the South China Sea.

Huh. True? If true, isolated or the first of more?

Quantity: "The Pentagon committed on Monday to fielding thousands of attritable, autonomous systems across multiple domains within the next two years as part of a new initiative to better compete with China." Multiply that by 10--monthly--if the Winter War of 2022 is anything to go by.

Armata not ready for its close-up.

This is one reason I've wanted us to help Ukraine win faster rather than later: As Ukrainians get used to the war and the sense of imminent peril recedes, corruption creeps back in.

The firing of Ukraine's defense minister was more about strategy than corruption. And let's face it, despite Ukraine's brilliant attrition of the Russian invaders, the porcupine strategy failed: "The hope was that a discouraged Moscow would simply reconsider its campaign. That didn’t happen[.]" Do tell. But what will the shift in strategy be?

Our media no longer subtly reflect the dominant culture. It is now the "agitprop" shock troops of the dominant (leftist) culture. The dominant culture is mostly social media, media, and societal elites. The news industry committed suicide when it went from blue collar "reporters" to elite-educated "journalists". I hope it isn't a murder-suicide plot with America. But hopefully the disconnect with real society means it is fragile and can be popped when people notice the emperor has no clothes. Tip to Instapundit.

People don't seem to like Assad when he is no longer standing between them and jihadis (he helped unleash to do just that): "Anti-regime protests are gaining traction in Syria with demonstrators calling for the overthrow of the regime, and the protests could expand during the coming weeks. "

Climate scientist: "To put it bluntly, climate science has become less about understanding the complexities of the world and more about serving as a kind of Cassandra, urgently warning the public about the dangers of climate change. However understandable this instinct may be, it distorts a great deal of climate science research, misinforms the public, and most importantly, makes practical solutions more difficult to achieve." The left destroys all our trusted institutions. Tip to Instapundit.

Via Instapundit, cardboard drones challenge advanced weapons. I was on the threat of small drone swarms many years ago in Army magazine. And I warned about small drone threats to air bases before that. Although I assumed aircraft shelters would preclude direct attacks on the planes.

Xi Jinping is trying fascism to retain CCP control under him: "In the last few centuries, China had endured periods when independent warlords ruled portions of a divided China and the communist Chinese feared this might happen again." Like I said, all of the above.

Australia joins the HIMARS club.

Tanks are powerful mobile, protected, firepower: "Yet as powerful as they are, tanks can be stopped; even unarmored ground troops armed with the right weapons can kill the largest and best protected tanks dead." Killing tanks is fun and easy. And even the best protected could be taken out of the fight.

Kamikaze naval surface drones. They can be part of a balanced breakfast, for sure. Just don't fling your panties at them, okay?

Will the U.S. restore air defenses to CONUS? "The U.S. military has begun a new formal effort to explore options for how to better defend the homeland against the threat posed by ever-more advanced Russian and Chinese cruise missiles." Well, CONUS is no longer a sanctuary.

Bloomberg Economics "now forecasts it will take until the mid-2040s for China’s gross domestic product to exceed that of the US — and even then, it will happen by 'only a small margin' before 'falling back behind.'" I've long noted potential Chinese obstacles to surpassing America.

Deterrence: "The U.S. military on Wednesday launched an unarmed Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile from California in a display of the U.S. nuclear forces' readiness."

Poland will buy hundreds of American Naval Strike Missiles. That will totally isolate Russia's Kaliningrad exclave. I wonder if some of Poland's existing anti-ship missiles will find their way to Ukraine.

Huh: "Armenia said on Wednesday it would host a joint military exercise with the United States next week, a development that Russia said was cause for concern."

No, it hasn't. But update your Newspeak Dictionary to use "climate breakdown." 

If energy is rationed, the wealthy and well-connected will get permission to use more.

Leftists charged for violence? That's a good sign. Well, let's see if there are serious convictions.

Mostly ammunition for Ukraine from America.

Upward revision of British GDP statistics undermine "bitter clinger" Remainers who still reject Brexit from the EU.

Ending the Abrams M1A2 SEP in favor of the M1E3.

Science! Wait. What?

The new 6.8mm M7 rifle and M250 light machine gun.

I noticed an older post of mine that the Winter War of 2022 is potentially validating: "When anything that emits--including the act of moving under surveillance--can be attacked and killed, a war of movement becomes nearly impossible while the enemy capability to see and shoot across the battlefield seamlessly as the Combat Lethality Task Force is pursuing remains intact."

The DOD intends to release its new Chinese defense report in mid-October.

Will Germany and France build a new common tank?

Are Western allies denying Ukraine new armored fighting vehicles? Maybe Ukraine just needs ammo. I can't rule out subtle pressure on Ukraine to win with what they have or cut a deal with Russia to end the war without liberating territory. 

Wow. Syrians protest Assad. Seriously.

Guilty liars (tip to Instapundit): "In what has become an annual tradition, Democrats and too many journalists are marking back-to-school season by trying to insist with a straight face that the COVID-era school closures from the autumn of 2020 all the way through 2022 were a bipartisan phenomenon, perhaps even mostly attributable to Republicans." TDR has exclusive video of the media effort to excuse what the teacher unions did and move on from the lockdowns that crippled a cohort of children:

 

India and America are more than friends but less than allies. Ukraine has gained from that kind of relationship, eh?

Yeah, we're clearing out our older stuff to avoid depleting our best stuff: "Ukraine has officially received nearly $100 billion in military aid. That number is inflated because many of the weapons and munitions were obsolete or, in the case of munitions, near or past their 'use by' date. The older weapons were still useful against Russian forces."

FFS, that ship sailed inflamed long ago with a pyromaniac Russian captain: "Allied leaders should resist these calls to embrace the 'NATO lake' strategy, which would further inflame NATO-Russia tensions within a particularly thorny flashpoint. The security of the alliance may depend on its approach to the region." Pacifist Europeans have reacted to Russian threats in the Baltic--not caused Russian hostility. And what does claiming "military suzerainty" even mean? That's not a legal concept. It's a concept of defense. What nonsense is that author peddling?.

Ukraine uses information as a force multiplier.

Desperately seeking North Korean ammunition and weapons.

Biden plans to secede from America, excluding Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas. Question: If a border between those states and America can be closed to illegal migrants, why can't the American border with Mexico be secured? And why aren't those migrants being kept in "sanctuary" states and cities? Tip to Instapundit.

Major loss of life in earthquake in Morocco. Good Lord.