Subtracting Our Morality Won't Divide Our Enemies

Appeasing either Russia or China by adjusting our foreign policy surrender victims to them will earn us contempt and shame--not friendship. 

Splitting Russia from China as this author wants would be great. But the author blames America for their close relationship:

Some fear these developments signal an emerging power bloc in Asia bent on contesting American influence. Yet leading officials and commentators often fail to understand how the United States itself helped create the conditions for increasing Russo-Chinese alignment. Military cooperation between Moscow and Beijing is not simply an inevitable convergence of like-minded authoritarian states, as the popular narrative suggests. It is also a direct response to American muscle-flexing in the region.

I'm in favor of splitting China from Russia. But blaming America for preparing to resist two aggressive states is ridiculous. America is in no way responsible for pushing them together. Indeed, pretending that Russia and China are allies ignores the brutal reality that Russia is a vassal of China forced to bow more deeply every day.

A vassal that China refrains from helping significantly. Shouldn't American help for Ukraine be pushing China to arm Russia under that author's theory?

But for splitting the two, why would China turn against its vassal? Sure, China might pounce on an easier target, but China won't be a friend if we stand aside and bless that move. Strengthening China at Russia's expense is not in America's interest.

Clearly, Russia is the obvious target for flipping. But how does Russia safely escape bitch status deepened by invading Ukraine? Russia is more vulnerable now to China deciding to exploit Russia's troubles. Russia has reason to fear how much China might demand.

To truly split Russia from China, America and Russia need a common enemy for solid motivation. China is that foe. But for now, Russia pretends NATO is the main enemy. And Russia is trapped in that position as long as it insists on invading Ukraine. 

But as that author implicitly reveals, Western advocates for splitting Russia and China seem to focus on throwing Ukraine under the bus. But Taiwan or some other Asian victim will do in a pinch, too, for some. 

Offering concessions to awful governments to gain their favor won't work even if you move beyond the moral bankruptcy of doing that.

NOTE: The image was made from DALL-E.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

In for a Penny, In to Get Pounded?

Sending Secretary of Defense Austin to Africa may hold the line with our remaining allies and buy time. But ultimately resources are necessary to stabilize Africa.

Symbolism is nice: 

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is traveling to Africa next week to shore up U.S. defense relationships with allies during a time of heightened bloodshed across the continent and growing influence in the region from China and Russia.

Resources are better. (quoting an earlier 2020 post of mine):

We need to be careful in allocating combat resources to our unified commands. With the small numbers involved, will reductions in AFRICOM in favor of EUCOM or INDOPACOM provide significant reinforcements to the latter two regions?

Or will those transfers simply cripple AFRICOM's ability to defend our interests and prevent big problems from emerging in Africa?

It would be hard to argue that resources pulled from an already thinly resourced economy-of-force front effort in Africa make any difference in Europe, where Russia continues to invade Ukraine.

And given the scale of Russia's threat to European peace, it would be hard to argue that strengthening America's African efforts would make any difference in Europe. Or in Asia for that matter. 

Problems are definitely emerging in Africa that AFRICOM has not been able to stop. Russia is more than happy to stoke unrest in fragile states to impose pain on America for supporting Ukraine. As the Pentagon's Africa Center for Strategic Studies argues (from the initial article): 

Russia “typically relies on irregular (and frequently extralegal) means to expand its influence -- deployment of mercenaries, disinformation, election interference, support for coups and arms for resources deals.”

So I'll again advocate my force multiplier suggestion for The AFRICOM Queen joint and inter-agency power projection platform that was published in Military Review over seven years ago. It isn't a platform for the interior problem states. But it may hold the line near the coasts at a lower price, freeing resources for the inland states being undermined.

Or maybe we hope symbolism is equivalent to action. Which will work out just swell, I'm sure. 

UPDATE: Related: "Hundreds of Islamist militants riding motorbikes have attacked a town in south-western Niger, killing 12 soldiers, the defence ministry says." It's a mission from God.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

Macron's Game of Thrones

Macron wants to be emperor of Europe. And when you play the EU game of thrones, you either win or you get a cushy senior appointment in the EU apparatus to assist the next would-be emperor.

France's Macron has ended his pre-war outreach to Russia that Putin's invasion didn't de-rail. He is now taking the lead in Europe on opposing Russia. With an added emphasis on expanding the European Union:

The French president has now picked up the mantle as one of Ukraine’s strongest allies, pledging support “until victory,” seeking to lead on issues such as NATO membership and military support, just as Europeans fret that U.S. support is flagging, with increasing concerns that a potential Donald Trump presidency could deprive Ukraine of its most important ally.

And:

Beyond the war in Ukraine, France is now seeking new allies, wants to lead on enlargement and is war-gaming how an enlarged EU would work. There is frenetic diplomatic activity behind closed doors in Paris and beyond. 

Macron is clearly betting on America backing off from supporting Ukraine in favor of over-pivoting to Asia at the expense of Europe: 

As a US shift to China is inevitable, France seems to be the only state that is vocalizing the importance of "strategic autonomy." 

"Strategic autonomy" means turning the EU into a rival military alliance to weaken NATO and eject American influence from Europe.

With his failed outreach to Putin, Macron has an eye on using another crisis to advance EU integration--that is, stripping the prefix from the proto-imperial EU project. With Macron sitting on the throne, of course.  

Eastern edge NATO members should not rely on Macron's promises of EU security guarantees.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

Supplying Two Wars

Rather than focusing on force structure, I think we should have a Two-War Production Strategy as a hedge against two wars. Deploying more troops than we can sustain is far more dangerous than having too few troops.

This author wants a two-theater standard for military preparation and rejects the call to abandon defense of anything outside of INDOPACOM:

Proponents of this theory also assert that the United States is so bereft of the economic sinews of power and military capability that we must abandon our European allies, as well as long-time Middle Eastern security partners, and concentrate America’s military power solely on deterring a cross-strait invasion and defending Taiwan.  From the standpoints of U.S. grand strategy and military analysis both assertions, however, are without merit. 

I agree the Atlantic and Pacific must be defended. Europe is an economy-of-force front, but it is an important  front.

Africa is lower down in priorities, but still a front.

And the Middle East still requires our attention to defend the gains we've made since America had to escalate its role and commitments during periods of major threats to stability and Western prosperity. This is the more visible part of the Global Troubles to keep jihadis from threatening America at home.

The two-front standard is interesting because in some ways it is misleading, as I explored in this post.

The standard is based on World War II when America focused on Germany while also going on offense against Japan, and committing lesser forces to deal with Italy. 

Remember that America initially wanted to focus on Germany first while holding Japan at bay. But American production mobilization was so great that Japan could be dealt with as well. But even then America had to transfer lots of European Army divisions to the Pacific after defeating Germany in order to prepare to invade Japan.

Rather than build up our military size now on the assumption that war is looming, I'd focus on making our defense industry able to be the Arsenal of Democracy, which the Winter War of 2022 has exposed as hollow. Do that and make sure our troops and troop leaders get realistic training and benefit from other readiness measures. And for God's sake fix whatever is wrong with our senior leadership. That will make the force we have fully capable.

Readiness in materiel and leadership/training is hard to maintain but easy to squander.

If we repair our defense industrial base, readiness, and leadership first, expansion of our military forces to global war standards could be done when threats become more active and imminent. We could expand to the limits of our revived industrial capacity. If we reverse that we risk having an impressive-looking but hollow military. Which is a problem.

I have suspicions that the people who say we have to focus on China to the exclusion of all else are composed of too many people who have the Goldilocks Syndrome of seeking excuses to avoid dealing with the current military problem that Russia poses in order to save resources for the "real" threat that is looming.

UPDATE: This is timely. One of my most satisfying moments when I worked for the University of Michigan graduate library was when I was asked by a staff member in another division if Jomini's The Art of War was a significant work that should be retained. We really didn't know each other but he was aware of my military interest. I told him it should definitely be kept. I assume the Internet means such decisions are no longer reliant on such informal connections.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

All Things Under Heaven--A Little at a Time

China at least isn't shy about informing us that it has more territorial ambitions.

China's subliminal expansion begins with new maps: 

China has told India to "stay calm" over a new Chinese map that Delhi says lays claim to its territory."

India protested after Beijing released the map showing north-eastern Arunachal Pradesh state and the disputed Aksai Chin plateau as China's territory.

Beijing responded by saying its neighbours should refrain from "over-interpreting" the issue.

Nepal isn't happy, either.

I've mentioned that Chinese approach to expansion. 

And India isn't the only upset target:

The Philippines, Malaysia, Taiwan and Vietnam have rejected as baseless a map released by China that denotes its claims to sovereignty including in the South China Sea and which Beijing said on Thursday should be viewed rationally and objectively.

China added another dash, too. To muddy the waters with an irrelevant change for analysts to obsess over?

We all know where this is going, right? Space Force, you've been warned.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

The Winter War of 2022 Digs Russia's Grave

Russia isn't looking like it can win more than a Pyrrhic victory. But the fate of Ukraine still hangs in the balance as Russia defines the extent and scope of its defeat.

Ukraine continues to hold the initiative across the southern front. In the east, each trades punches but the Ukrainians appear to have the edge. And in the bigger picture, are forcing Russia to react. While it feels like Ukraine is hollowing out and stressing Russia's ground forces, Russia still holds a line despite being pushed back a bit. If Russia's army can be cracked as it is leveraged out of its apparent main line of resistance, Ukraine might get big gains. But it may have to wait until the autumn or winter. 

Or Ukraine won't get that victory.

Russia seems to rely not on reclaiming the initiative in battle but on outlasting Western resolve to support Ukraine. That might win the war, but the bigger picture appears bleak for Russia.

Yeah, Putin effed up: 

Russian President Vladimir Putin has scored a "huge own goal" with the war in Ukraine, according to CIA Director William Burns.

He was referring to Russia's losses at the front, international sanctions, the expansion of NATO and Russia's growing dependence on China — something that has escalated in recent years and may well become one of the enduring challenges Putin's government has created for Russia.

The risks associated with this final point, the deepening dependence on China, are substantial — and breaking free from it will prove to be a formidable task.

I suspect Russia extended its appeasement of China five years in the belief that a short and glorious war against Ukraine that broke NATO would allow Putin to pivot to face China. 

Now, China might pick apart the carcass of a broken Russia too weak to be a useful pretend ally. Putin is finding it sucks to be Mussolini in the drama.

And nobody wants Mussolini to be their champion.

But just because Russia is effing up, that doesn't mean it can't make short-term dangerous gains by defeating Ukraine--thus eliminating a major army in Russia's path--and absorbing Ukraine--thus adding Ukraine's territory and some of Ukraine's military power to Russia. Given many decades when NATO oddly doesn't invade Russia and instead imports its natural gas again, Russia could recover from the mistakes while retaining the asset of Ukraine.

Although I can't rule out that--like the Russia-Finland Winter War of 1939-1940--Russia won't conclude that the price Russia paid for what it gets in this war is too high a price to risk paying again given other potential threats to Russia.

Imagine what Russia could have achieved if it had moved through Belarus and hit NATO from Estonia to Poland instead of attacking Ukraine? Would NATO have been able to halt an attack that Russia clearly could sustain for a couple years? And halt it without using nuclear weapons?

At least NATO got a wake-up call on logistics.

By arming and helping Ukraine, the West has started to "take Vienna." For God's sake, take Vienna. And maybe Russia will get a hard enough whack with the clue bat to claim victory and get out of Ukraine.

UPDATE (Monday): ISW notes that Russia is expending a lot of effort counterattacking to hold their positions in the south despite having prepared positions to fall back on further south.

Russia may be doing this to buy time for .. something unclear. Waiting for reinforcements? To build fortifications?  Or perhaps Putin needs to portray Ukraine's offensive as futile even if it costs Russia excessive lives and equipment. This could be for undermining Western support or undermining domestic opposition to Putin's conduct of the war.

Can Russia's ability to hold every inch of its conquests outlast Ukraine's ability to attack? ISW doesn't know:

The Ukrainian counteroffensive is in an extremely dynamic phase and ISW is not prepared to offer any confident forecast of events despite recent positive indicators.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

Weekend Data Dump

I agree: "Ukraine's defensive and counteroffensive operations in the Bakhmut area since summer 2022 are an operationally sound undertaking that has fixed a large amount of Russian combat power that would otherwise have been available to reinforce Russian defenses in southern Ukraine." Unless classified information comes out to convince me otherwise, I think the Pentagon criticism of Ukraine's defense of the city is wrong.

Axis of Weasels: "Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, three West African Sahel nations ruled by military juntas, signed a security pact on Saturday promising to come to the aid of each other in case of any rebellion or external aggression."

And this is still taking too long: "Production of 155mm artillery rounds crucial to the war in Ukraine is years ahead of schedule, according to Pentagon acquisition chief Bill LaPlante." Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a wake-up call to our defense industrial base.

The military isn't woke--just the flag officers: "Army Gen. Mark Milley pushed back on claims from Republicans that the military is 'woke' and as a result not prepared to take on modern threats, saying he’s 'not even sure what that word truly means.'" He doesn't know his enemy, clearly. I've suffered a near total loss of confidence in our senior military and civilian leadership atop the military.

Russia's wartime production problems.

Poland is buying Naval Strike Missiles, which will bounce the rubble: "The Russian Baltic Sea fleet is small and many of its ships are disabled by lack of maintenance. The two naval bases are at Leningrad and Kaliningrad."

To be fair, Iran has to restore its inventory to meet the obvious demand. Tip to Instapundit. 

The fossil fuels industry should refuse to allow its products to be used in harm California until the lawsuit is settled: "'The companies that have polluted our air, choked our skies with smoke, wreaked havoc on our water cycle, and contaminated our lands must be made to mitigate the harms they have brought upon the State,' California’s suit says." Give them what they say they want. Good and hard.

Scratch Chicago off of my vacation destinations list.

The EU throne sniffer party in the wings: "The man who wants to be our next prime minister seems to think that the EU is the answer to all of the UK’s problems – even in an area like migration."

Huh: "We know there's ice on the Moon – what's less clear is where it came from. A new study suggests that waves of electrons, arriving indirectly from Earth and the Sun, are contributing to the formation of frozen water on the lunar surface."

India's naval shipbuilding. Their shipyards are apparently good enough to service American warships under a recent agreement. But the capability is held back by India's "notoriously corrupt and incompetent defense procurement bureaucracy."

The vital work to clean up corruption in Ukraine seemingly continues: "Ukraine's government has dismissed all six deputy defense ministers and the state secretary of the Defense Ministry[.]"

Huh: "U.S. officials with dementia may pose a national security threat, according to a study funded by the Pentagon."

Steadfast Defender: "NATO’s largest military drill since the end of the Cold War is being planned for 2024, bringing together more than 40,000 troops for an exercise stretching from the Baltics to Poland and Germany, according to alliance officials." History did restart, after all.

Germany will provide additional military aid to Ukraine: "The new aid will include munitions, armored vehicles and training for thousands of soldiers, as well as warm clothing for the winter and mine-clearing equipment[.]"

Easy advice when your own survival isn't on the line: "Saudi Arabia, the EU (European Union) and the World Bank are all urging Israel to accept a peace deal with the Palestinians that includes an independent Palestinian state. None of these proposals address the Palestinian demands that Israel must be destroyed before there can be peace." Easier still if that is the point.

Body positivity is killing people with obesity. I'm so old I remember when skinny models were a dire threat to the health of women. Tip to Instapundit.

Armored shoot-and-scoot capabilities in action. 

Dueling battle networks.

The Cartel Colony? How on Earth does something like that even get started? And allowed to continue? Tip to Instapundit.

Hmmm: "A Chinese blockade of Taiwan would likely fail and a direct military invasion of the self-ruled island would be extremely difficult for Beijing to carry out successfully, senior Pentagon officials told Congress on Tuesday." Please define "extremely difficult." I also assume a blockade would take too long and give America too much time to react to be a Chinese Plan A. Or Plan E, for that matter.

Dulling Taiwanese reaction.  

The Obama and Biden administrations have been major buyers and suppliers: "The Islamic Republic of Iran has generated a massive windfall of up to $15.7 billion for illegally seizing American hostages as part of a ruthless hostage policy that has been fine-tuned since its 1979 revolution, according to new a think tank report." Reagan was guilty, too.

South Korea is providing Ukraine with two K600 minefield-breaching armored vehicles.

What exactly happened to the F-35B our pilot was "forced to eject" from? Was it an ejection system malfunction? I will lose my freaking mind if the plane was hacked.

Countering Battlestar Crimea: "U.S. military officials on Tuesday marked completion of a $34 million upgrade to a strategic base in central Romania where more than $100 million is being spent on initiatives aimed at extending the U.S. Air Force’s reach in southeastern Europe." NATO is making Russian possession of Crimea irrelevant for power projection roles. This might make it easier for Russia to accept losing the place. Although for Ukraine, agreeing to let Russia keep it might be a way to launder reparations for invading Ukraine.

Of course a liberal veterans group is against Senator Tuberville's hold on military promotions to flag rank. I say there's more than one way to inflict a decimation on untrusted senior officer ranks. 

Generative AI could write military"battle plans" but shouldn't execute them? Hmmm. If plans can't be executed at the speed the plans assume, is there a point to having AI plans?

Russia's faltering defense industry.

I appreciate the concerns of conservatives over arming a corrupt Ukraine. Oversight at some level (let's not interfere with using the weapons in a timely manner) is justified. But corruption doesn't mean Ukraine has forfeited its right to freedom. Russia is more corrupt. Hell, Chicago is more corrupt. My bottom line is that America has a vital interest in keeping Russia from dominating Europe and that keeping Russia as far east as possible means American money rather than troops is the price we'll pay. And FFS, spending money to hold off Russia is the least of America's spending binge problem:

What the actual F: "The Chinese Communist government has infiltrated more than 500 kindergarten through 12th grade classrooms across America, with CCP-run programs strategically concentrated around U.S. military bases, a panel of experts testified before Congress on Tuesday." Recall that the Russians seem to have persuaded Wagner commanders to call off their brief revolt by threatening their families.

Never say the Iranians aren't great negotiators: "Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi on Tuesday said the U.S. must 'demonstrate in a verifiable fashion' that it intends to return to the 2015 nuclear deal, adding that the country has a right to nuclear energy." Contrast that to our habit of offering concessions until our enemy is afraid of pushing their luck by continuing to say "no." Iran acts like a deal is a favor to us! When in reality a deal is a shield to help Iran get nuclear weapons and protect the regime itself.

I was assured Taliban 2.0 wanted the respect of the international community: "The United Nations is calling on the Taliban in Afghanistan to reform the way it treats prisoners, citing more than 1,600 human rights violations in a new report." I know. Shocking, right?

This applies to all the services, with the exception of Space Force that for now remains a rear echelon force for this issue: "Fielding simple and easily repairable weapons and equipment should be a priority for outfitting Marine forces operating within the East Asian first island chain."

Say, here's three people who welcome their new insect overlords. And I find this a particularly silly framing for urging America to give up trying to stop China's rise: "it was an act of remarkable hubris for a 250-year-old Republic (with one-quarter of China’s population) to believe that it could transform a 4,000-year-old civilization to its liking." Well, after 250 years, the 4,000-year old civilization is trying to catch up. So there's that. Despite the ancient Chinese secret. Resistance is never futile. 

Ukraine needs to outsource its own weapons production beyond practical or political reach of Russian missiles: "The basic deal, as envisioned by Ukrainian government officials, is that foreign companies would get access to cheap and innovative Ukrainian designs while Ukraine would secure arms factories in countries safe from Russian missile strikes."

I've got good news and bad news. The good news first: "Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley told reporters that 'to date, Ukraine has liberated over 54% of Russian-occupied Ukraine and they continue to retain the strategic initiative.'" That is progress despite the recent line of contact stalemate. The bad news is that the 46% still held is a jumping off point for future conquests if Russia holds it when a ceasefire is implemented. The worse news is that the amount of territory Russia holds could represent all of a smaller target for an invader. Like Taiwan. And then look at the small NATO Baltic states that also used to be part of Russia and the USSR.

Americans across the board are disillusioned and critical of our government, yet: "The elections of 2018, 2020 and 2022 were three of the highest-turnout U.S. elections of their respective types in decades[.]" I've long said lower voting percentages  at least in part reflected confidence in the system to do a good-enough job. As the stakes for winning elections for an increasingly powerful and activist government goes up, motivation to vote rises. And polarization. So bravo.

A tiny air force: "The Estonian army will soon stand up a unit solely dedicated to loitering munitions, drawing on lessons from the Ukrainian war, the battery’s prospective commander told Defense One." Which leads to a question for the U.S. Army.

Israel unveiled the new Barak main battle tank, featuring AI and better situational awareness and sensors.

The British get a new assault rifle.

The next American tank will be an evolved MBT: "The U.S. Army has decided go with a radical redesign of its M1 tank that will result in a lighter 59-ton M1E3 tank with a smaller three man crew and a smaller unmanned turret containing an auto-loaders for the 120mm main gun as well many other items currently not found in the M1 manned turret."

I've long been a supporter of Taiwanese submarines. Behold: "Japan's Nikkei news service reported: 'Taiwan's long secretive plans to make its own submarines will be revealed in October' when a domestically made diesel sub appears in the port of Kaohsiung. It'll be the first of eight." 

U.N. secretary-general: "Our focus here is on climate solutions – and our task is urgent. Humanity has opened the gates of hell." You don't even have to squint to see how climate change is a new religion. Now go and emit no more. 

I've warned about this consequence repeatedly: "Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman warned that if Iran acquires a nuclear weapon his kingdom would have to get one too." Add in Turkey and Egypt, too. But Democrats can't see the problems of Iran going nuclear. Because Democrats looooove mullah-run Iran.

Good: "The U.S. Navy is investing billions of dollars to revamp its Cold War-era submarine detection system in the Pacific Ocean as China bolsters its own navy and becomes more belligerent."

Why would any company risk selling products in California with all the legal traps the state is setting? 

Russia isn't as isolated in Europe over its invasion of Ukraine as one would hope. American opposition is at least mostly based on the cost and risk of direct war. 

San Francisco's government is perplexed that car break-ins are rampant despite massive public surveillance. And it wants car owners to step up to make their cars less of a target. One, the crooks know nothing will come from being recorded in the act. Arrest, let alone conviction--let alone prison time--is highly unlikely. Like many government actions, the surveillance network doesn't deter crime. It erodes the privacy of law-abiding citizens. Second, maybe there is hope. As long as the city wants civilians to take action, let me suggest a tool that already exists--the Second Amendment. I look forward to the city "arm up" campaign. Tip to Instapundit.

More American military aid for Ukraine to sustain its counteroffensive.

Somalia outlasted the willingness of the international community to sustain peacekeeping contingents there. 

Shocked and awww: "The senior Russian military leadership is still in shock over the catastrophic losses they suffered since they invaded Ukraine in early 2022. These losses are a military secret in Russia but widely distributed and discussed in the West." Some writers insist Russia has a large reserve army poised. I worry because that's what I'd try to do. And the USSR would have done it. Others say that is false with no evidence for such an army. So reports like this reassure me--until my worries build again.

The U.S. and Vietnamese coast guards will increase their cooperation.

Sadly, their purpose isn't to halt the flow but to keep it from producing ugly pictures as the flow increases: "An additional 800 active-duty troops were ordered Wednesday to deploy to the southwest U.S. border as the daily number of migrants crossing has more than doubled this month, according to the Department of Homeland Security." Democrats actually believe this is Trump's fault as Biden laughably claims. But don't dare claim Biden lies. To be fair, Biden probably believes Trump keeps hiding Biden's car keys.

I'm 100% sure that this is the administration's intent: "According to the latest Rasmussen Reports survey, 72% said that they are concerned that 'America is becoming a police state.'" I'm far less certain that the government will get away with it. But pretty certain our loss of freedoms will ratchet up to some extent. Ironically, the rising police state has little interest in stopping actual criminals in its zeal to criminalize and catch political opponents. Tip to Instapundit.

I keep telling myself the Abrams tank and Stinger air defense missiles were called failures when they first appeared: "F-35s are available to fly just 55% of the time, and 73% of replacement parts have to be sent back to suppliers because the Pentagon’s maintenance depots are inadequate, according to a new congressional audit on the troubled upkeep of the fighter jet that is the world’s costliest weapons system." When they fly, pilots love the plane.

These light division troops pose no offensive threat to Russia, if the Russians try to persist in their BS fear of NATO: "On Wednesday the Army announced that about 3,400 soldiers with the 101st Airborne Division’s 3rd Infantry Brigade Combat Team will head to Eastern Europe this fall, as will 200 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division Headquarters."

Is civil war coming to the West? If so, I blame elites who deliberately sow division for political purposes while demonizing dissent from the consensus and denying outlets for that dissent within the political process. 

The empire strikes back: As a first step before or perhaps instead of invasion, Russia tries to gain influence in the eastern NATO states.

The U.S. is reaching out to the former Soviet republics in Central Asia as Russia is focused on fighting Ukraine. We can't be fully engaged everywhere. So I don't see this as a major diplomatic effort. I think it has more effect scaring China into making bigger efforts to replace Russian influence. I love it when a plan comes together.

Russia is killing the goose that lays its only golden eggs. Ah, government "help". Tip to Instapundit.

Yes, it isn't a matter of "can't"--our left-dominated institutions have decided not to protect our border. Because they think citizenship is unearned privilege that must be undermined.

Ukraine apparently struck the Russian Black Sea Fleet headquarters in Crimea. The attacks sure are increasing. Is this all a prelude to a big strike on the Kerch Strait bridge?

Navy surface drones are in Japan to practice working out there. Note that the vessels have equipment in shipping containers on their decks. Expand that, eh?

China's subliminal invasion of the Philippines continues.

Alarming movements: "Recent Chinese military movements around Taiwan were 'abnormal', the island's defence minister said on Friday, flagging amphibious exercises in addition to drills Taipei has observed in the province facing the island." If China acts rather than just dulling Taiwanese reactions to a higher level of activity, I'd guess Pratas Island is the target. 

The next time a pandemic virus is released from a Chinese lab, it may be more genetically targeted. Tip to Instapundit.

Ideally, Ukrainian factories producing Western weapons could make up for any reductions in Western arms support for Ukraine.

Russia's ground forces have been crippled in its invasion of Ukraine. But Russia still has power to threaten us: "A failed state with thousands of nuclear warheads would be a dangerous combination." But does Russia have thousands of working nuclear warheads? Is that an island of efficiency in a swamp of failure?

Our military needs to focus much more on achieving victory rather than predicting outcomes: "But I can tell you that it will take a considerable length of time to militarily eject all 200,000 plus Russian troops out of Russian occupied Ukraine. That's a very high bar. It's going to take a long time to do it." General Milley is supposed to be a military leader and not a political science professor. Try to win, okay?

Celebrate sex workers and assisted suicide but sperm and plasma sellers are bad? Whatever. Tip to Instapundit.

The North Korean cyberwar efforts. Early in my blog I mocked the notion of such a backward country doing this. Now they are a threat.

When you have to fight for sea control: "USS Pinckney (DDG-91) is the first of the Burkes to get SEWIP Block III, which is a revolutionary electronic warfare upgrade for these vessels, that you can read all about here." Is it revolutionary enough--and effective enough--to make the carrier a predator rather than prey? Until counter-countermeasures are developed, of course.

Why our generals can't think. Well, all flag officers, I assume. It's plausible.

Is Britain going to make us lose our key base at Diego Garcia? And potentially make it possible for China to get it?

I actually don't like the talk of Ukraine achieving a "breakthrough" of Russia's main fortifications line. A breakthrough is punching through the defenders with open roads ahead of you as the enemy scrambles to reform a defensive line or counter-attack. What Ukraine has done is "penetrate" the Russian fortifications belt. That makes it easier to break through Russia's line. Which hasn't happened. Ideally, add a "yet" to that.

After cutting back on the caviar and conferences during the Trump administration, the Clinton corruption machine just got refueled. This stinks to high Heaven. The "administrative costs" alone will enrich for decades the Clintons and the partisan hacks who orbit them. Plus whoever gets the contracts will owe the Clintons big time. But look! Squirrel! Menendez! (Who will be replaced with another Democrat.) I thank God at least once a week that Trump kept Hillary! out of the White House. This development is a reason to investigate and prosecute the Clintons--not to punish Ukrainians desperate to avoid being conquered by Russia.

Conveniently timed science to support the president's reelection campaign? Tip to Instapundit.

The left undermines institutions it doesn't control. 

The effort to paint General Milley as the savior of the republic is nauseating. Tip to Instapundit.

Russia has ordered the production of more modernized tanks. Good luck with that.

It would be nice if all of that debris could be used as raw materials for new stuff, saving us the massive cost of sending new stuff to Mars.

Russia's foreign minister would prefer it if Ukraine and the West just accepted Russia's conquests: "'If you insist on the battlefield, OK, let’s decide it on the battlefield,' Lavrov said at a news conference at the United Nations, days after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy denounced Russia’s 'criminal' war in a speech to the General Assembly."

Ukraine's naval victory without a navy. Well, it's certainly A2/AD in action. It helps shield Odessa from hypothetical Russian amphibious landings. It compels Russia to pull assets from the rest of the war to defend a Russian rear area. And it may even allow Ukrainian grain exports. What will Ukraine do with that advantage offensively while it lasts? Or is another effect desired?

The Aerial Drones are Everywhere

Direct-fire close combat is hard enough without making the tip of the spear responsible for their own air defense. The reaction to our expensive stealth fighters sweeping the skies of enemy aircraft is cheap enemy drones hugging the ground in the brown skies above the ground fight. It will take cheap drones to battle these threats.

One lesson that the Winter War of 2022 is demonstrating more clearly because of the duration is the problem of attack drones:

[The] states of the West have to find a way to conduct ground combat in an environment where they will be subject to frequent air attacks—something they have not had to do in generations, but that Ukraine must do now.

Such a review must incorporate the effects of the new-era meshed network of civilian and military sensors that is making the Ukrainian counteroffensives some of the most important and deadly battles in the modern age. The proliferation of drones, connected to modern digitized battle-command networks, allows for both militaries to rapidly identify and target each other’s forces. Current Western doctrine has not adequately adapted to this new environment.

They are cheap and getting much better:

“Now, we're seeing UAS able to loiter longer, with longer battery life that can reach farther distances and have increased payloads. They are hardened. They use 5G,” he said. They are faster, and can be used in swarms to overwhelm defenses, he added.

This problem of constant and swarming drones is why I advocated combat air patrol drones in this 2018 Army magazine article.

Clearly, units at the company level and below need a better means of controlling their own brown skies airspace. Yet rather than burdening lower-level units with additional ground-based air defense gun and missile systems, air-to-air combat UASs would provide better air defense than either high-flying advanced fighter aircraft or distant higher-echelon air defense weapons that will have difficulty identifying and tracking small aerial threats--let alone engaging them--before the threats strike and return to enemy positions.

Why do I want air defense drones rather than hand-held defenses?

Much as Army units carry out their operations unaware of the battles taking place in the blue skies that keep enemy aircraft away from the battlefield, units maneuvering and engaging in direct fire can't afford to be distracted by fighting for the brown skies above them.

Let's lift the burden of air defense from our forward ground combat units focused on making it through the last 100 yards to destroy enemies or holding off enemies that approach that close to kill them. Combat air patrol drones are the answer.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

Is the Super Carrier the Apex Predator or Doe-Eyed Prey?

Will somebody explain why we should spend so much effort to preserve a weapon that is supposedly vital to win the fight?

Giving more thought to protecting carriers at least explicitly recognizes their vulnerability and implicitly recognizes the cost of building vulnerable ships that could be spent elsewhere. But this effort over-estimates their offensive value in sea control campaigns to justify protecting them.

How can carriers contribute to the fight when they are evading attacks all the time?

During multiple iterations of a 2022 Center for Strategic and International Studies war game, at least two U.S. aircraft carriers were sunk and their air wings destroyed. If a carrier somehow managed to flee the second island chain unscathed from the war’s initial salvos, it would have to continue operating (or hiding) outside the second island chain until U.S. submarines and bombers cleared out China’s “carrier-killer” platforms.

Based on these war games, contemporary navalists are now coming up with ways to defend strike groups. Strategists should also be thinking about how to make them force multipliers. The U.S. Navy’s 11 aircraft carriers rack up an annual $13 billion in operating costs alone. For that kind of money, U.S. taxpayers deserve more than 11 wartime liabilities.

The kill chain may be harder to break than even I thought. And the author wants the carriers to "go dark"--avoiding emissions that could lead to detection by China and a hail of missiles. Sure, the author wants better passive sensors to make sure going "dark" doesn't mean going "blind." But as the expression goes, nice work if you can get it.

But I doubt that all the efforts spent to get the carrier in the fight is worth diverting assets from carrying out the fight without carriers:

The question of whether large aircraft carriers deserve to be the center of our future naval strategy is a fundamental question that has not been adequately explored. Network-centric warfare signals the beginning of the end for the United States Navy's large aircraft carriers. They will lose their value as an instrument of forward presence and become valuable targets that, if struck, will encourage an enemy at the outset of war by apparently demonstrating that American technological prowess can be nullified and beaten. In the long run, large aircraft carriers will add little to most offensive missions and will absorb scarce resources and assets simply evading attack rather than striking the enemy and contributing to victory.

I wrote that in 2000. And here we are thinking more about how to hide the carrier rather than using it to find and kill the enemy. I'm thinking we reached "the long run."

Ships and planes directly defending carriers could be used to attack the Chinese fleet and invasion flotilla. Going dark under less than ideal hoped-for conditions takes both the carrier and its escorts out of a network-centric battle, no? 

Doesn't everybody see this? I feel like I'm taking crazy pills.

Yet this author gives a full-throated defense of carriers for fighting China for control of the seas. He is confident we can break China's kill chains; says Japan couldn't sink many in World War II; counts on their mobility; looks forward to new carrier aviation capabilities ... one day; and says sure, carriers can be sunk (which is at least an improvement over writers who argue carriers are too hard to sink to worry too much)--the question is whether we lose them to achieve our objectives.

That last is an excellent point. Victory and not efficiency is the proper metric. And I do respect that author.

But I strongly believe the resources needed to protect carriers--or build as many as we have--would be better spent on other assets--in the Distributed Maritime Operations (the latest term in a series for network-centric fighting concepts) he cites in defense of big carriers--to sink enemy ships. And given their public image as a symbol of American power, video of one or more carriers burning will be a public relations disaster at home and abroad even apart from the loss of so many sailors, aviators, and Marines and the treasure wasted on the carrier and planes.

Maybe we should admit that carriers are a useful power projection asset and not a sea control asset against a peer enemy. And then make our fleet composition decisions accordingly.

Also, that CSIS war game series had a serious defect in how it defined victory in a Taiwan scenario.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

An Invasion Force Sails On Its Stomach

China is looking at logistics lessons from Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

China is looking at Russia's logistics:

In this Chinese analysis three different stages of the war are identified pertaining to logistics. These are, in chronological order, the pre-war buildup and initial attack; a second phase that essentially corresponds to the period after the abandonment of the northern front; and the current situation as it has evolved in 2023.

Nothing is that earth-shaking--if China learns the lessons.

What this Chinese exercise makes me wonder is whether China is refraining from sending ammunition to Russia to avoid getting sanctioned. What if China isn't supplying Russia because China has looked at what it has and decided it needs everything it has and more to invade Taiwan in the next several years. 

Yes, the article writes, China will likely try to seize airports and ports quickly to sustain their offensive. I agree, with an emphasis on the ports for logistics and the airports for getting troops on the ground to help take the ports; and also goes right for Taipei to seize or disrupt the Taiwanese government. That's been my assumption for a long time.

If China is worried about logistics perhaps we should be more interested in disrupting Chinese logistics. The Chinese did note that Ukrainian irregulars managed to hit Russia's inadequate supply effort hard. But the Chinese supply line is going to mostly be a sea one with a supplemental air resupply with helicopters flying from China and aircraft at captured airfields. This is a different kind of effort than Russia's.

Naval historian Julian S. Corbett a century ago wrote of naval power (in Principles of Maritime Strategy):

Naval warfare does not begin and end with the destruction of the enemy's battle-fleet, nor even with breaking his cruiser power. Beyond all this there is the actual work of preventing his passing an army across the sea and of protecting the passage of our own military expeditions. 

The war will be decided on land. My basic template for invasion assumed China would sacrifice a lot of older ships (now in their coast guard)--including a carrier--to get an army ashore.

So perhaps rather than only thinking about sinking Chinese warships as the metric of success, Taiwan and America should be looking at ultimately sinking the supply ships and damaging the Chinese ports and airports that would sustain an invasion force (despite my doubts America could sustain that effort, assuming China accepts losses of lots of ships).

Of course, a Chinese army that is flung ashore even with reduced supplies could hang on defending with air support from China until Peking can engineer a ceasefire if Taiwan lacks the weapons, troop training, and morale to engage in an offensive to drive the invaders into the sea. 

So America will have to protect the passage of our own expedition (pay attention to our logistics!) to help Taiwan and--if necessary with American forces--a ground offensive that drives the PLA into the sea (in Military Review).

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

Killers Gotta Kill

Jihadis clearly think that conquering Afghanistan was just the entry ticket to their next objective--killing people around the world. I assume America is high on their aspirations list.

Huh: 

The Taliban’s military victory in Afghanistan has emboldened various militant groups in the region, many of which were displaced before 2021. This triumph has granted these groups the freedom to move across the region with complete impunity.

Wait. What? Our retreat from Afghanistan wasn't a great accomplishment? 

We are helpless to effectively deal with jihadis over there now? 

And wait a second! What?

UN officials supervising aid deliveries noticed al Qaeda training camps in several as well as Islamic terrorists moving about openly in many parts of the country. Suicide bombers are being trained and indoctrinated for use outside Afghanistan. Some are being sent to Western countries where they can hide among the many Afghan refugees fleeing IEA rule.

Jihadis hate us and want to kill us?

Every day I'm shocked, shocked to find out that jihadis want to kill us. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

War Returns to the Caucasus

I suspect Azerbaijan wants to finish off the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute once and for all while Armenia's protector, Russia, is busy; and before America can decide Armenia is an ally rather than a subject of sympathy.

Here we go again: 

Azerbaijan on Tuesday launched a military operation against the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region and demanded the total withdrawal of Armenian forces from the disputed mountainous territory as a precondition for peace.

I bet Azerbaijan wants this to be a war limited to capturing the disputed breakaway region. And Russia would probably appreciate Azerbaijan winning quickly:

A contingent of up to 2,000 Russian peacekeepers — installed after Moscow negotiated an end to large-scale hostilities in 2020 — has apparently not acted against Azerbaijan's current military offensive.

Azerbaijan has also benefited from military support from its traditional ally Turkey, which has increasingly filled a big-power void in the South Caucasus as Russia has focused its resources on the war in Ukraine.

Baku says the aim of the current mission, which began Tuesday, is to "disarm and remove" Armenian forces illegally operating inside the enclave and protect ethnic Azeris living in the region. Armenia's Defense Ministry denies its troops are operating in the area.

We'll see if Azerbaijan's drones are as effective this war. And if the exclave's forces can resist an Azerbaijan onslaught.

And while Russia might prefer a quick defeat of Armenia that relieves Russia of pressure to act, will Russia instead go all-in to defend their ally, Armenia, to avoid losing other allies who see no value in Russian protection? Russia in theory has its air force and nukes free to bombard Azerbaijan targets. Nukes seem unlikely. Unless Russia thinks sending a message to NATO via Azerbaijan rather than Ukraine is safer. 

Much may depend on whether Armenia cooperates and concedes the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh without trying to extend and expand the war. 

UPDATE: Azerbaijan wants a localized war:

Azerbaijan has demanded the total surrender of the “illegal” Armenia-backed regime in Nagorno-Karabakh as its troops reportedly breached defensive lines in several places.

Will Armenia and Russia agree? Are they capable of disagreeing?

And as I wondered before the fighting started up again, will Iran intervene to help Armenia?

UPDATE: Background information on the conflict to the present time.

UPDATE: Russia decides a role in moderating the defeat is its best option:

Azerbaijan on Wednesday announced it had halted its military operation in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh, after separatist Armenian forces agreed to lay down their arms and hold reintegration talks.

Baku and the ethnic-Armenian authorities in Karabakh said a deal was brokered by Russian peacekeepers to stop the fighting a day after Azerbaijan launched an "anti-terrorist operation".

Will ethnic Armenians flee to Armenia?

UPDATE: Yeah, the world abandoned Armenia. But to be fair, Armenia put its reliance on Russia. And while the demographics may give Armenia moral arguments to hold Nagorno-Karabakh, the legality says Azerbaijan owns the territory. 

Like the status of Crimea, this jumble of territory and people didn't matter when the USSR existed.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

Breaching Taiwan's Wall in the Strait

I'm concerned that the quantity and quality of weapons that Taiwan deploys is the least of Taiwan's defense problems.

Yeah, I'm fully on board this assessment: 

U.S. leadership has been wasting its scarce political capital, trying to convince Taiwan to improve the relevance of its armaments purchases, when it should instead be focused on resolving Taiwan’s crisis of self-confidence, which will impact more immediately on Taiwan’s will to prepare and fight.

I'm very worried about Taiwanese resolve to fight hard if China invades. And I see a recent CRS summary states:

Civil defense preparedness is insufficient, according to some observers, and Taiwan’s military struggles to recruit, retain, and train personnel. At a societal level, it is not clear what costs—in terms of economic security, well-being, safety and security, and lives—Taiwan’s people would be willing or able to bear in the face of possible PRC armed aggression. 

And if the Taiwanese lack the will to fight or even to spend to prepare to fight, some Taiwanese may go to Plan B to survive the conquest. This is something that keeps me awake at night. 

[If China invades Taiwan, it will] "rely on treason within Taiwan’s astonishingly lackadaisical armed forces to win quickly." 

And winning quickly may only require getting ashore intact and defying efforts to eject the PLA. I don't think that the Taiwanese are island Israelis. Or even Ukrainians.

Indeed, it is this problem that makes me extremely hesitant to sell advanced weapons to Taiwan: 

But if Taiwan starts out believing they are doomed, I don't care how many fancy weapons Taiwan buys or develops. Taiwan will lose. And lose before we can even begin to make a decision to intervene.

Because if China believes that Taiwan's troops and people will crack as soon as a significant Chinese force makes it ashore, the price China would have to pay plummets tremendously.

And worse for Taiwan, the moment we think that Taiwan won't use weapons we sell them, we will stop selling Taiwan advanced weapons to match China out of fear that China will simply capture large amounts of advanced American weapons technology.

And we'll have to consider attacking Taiwanese ports, airfields, and army depots as Chinese troops fan out over the island to turn as much of what we provided into piles of junk rather than allow the Chinese to examine them at their leisure. Remember the British in World War II and how they viewed the Vichy French fleet.

China's best weapon against Taiwan is a Taiwanese belief that China can't lose a war with Taiwan. Sadly, we can't sell Taiwan the kind of resolve they need to survive so close to China.

A decade later, I still worry China could capture Taiwan exploiting that weakness. Indeed, one reason for advocating the use of American Army troops to drive the PLA into the sea (in Military Review) was that it would bolster the Taiwanese to know real help is coming even if the Chinese get past the anti-ship and air defense missiles to land on Taiwan. This help will take time to arrive--even after America builds the logistics and transportation assets to move the units to Taiwan--so Taiwan needs the determination to fight even when things look dark until that help can arrive.

We can build on Ukraine's resistance--assuming Russia doesn't win in the end--to bolster Taiwanese resolve. Because if Russia still wins this war--perhaps because the West falters in supporting Ukraine--Taiwan will lose all hope of surviving.

Because I've long worried Taiwan can fight hard with long-range weapons and shoot at the Chinese until China gets a significant ground force on the island. At that point Taiwanese troops could collapse:

I sometimes worry that Taiwanese troops will fold if the Chinese actually make it ashore in any strength despite the modernization effort taking place in the Taiwanese army. I sometimes worry I don't worry enough.

With a long quote about the fall of Constantinople to illustrate my worry.

Have a super sparkly day. 

UPDATE: Hmmm:

If Taiwan becomes a concrete porcupine -- with trained soldiers, modern weapons and reinforced bunkers supported by air and sea assets delivering sea mines and missile strikes -- Beijing will never take the island.

"If" does some heavy lifting in that advice. And that first element is the hardest conditional statement of all.

Remember, Constantinople had a massive "concrete" porcupine wall with impressive counter-siege weapons. But once the attackers in small numbers made it past the wall, the technically proficient but poorly motivated defenders collapsed.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.