For reasons I will lay out shortly, the window of vulnerability —the decade of greatest concern—begins in less than 24 months. If some currently unintended event does not provoke a military confrontation before then, we have until 2020—the deadline that Xi Jinping has given the PLA to be ready to invade Taiwan. From that point on, we can expect China to strike.
I think that China has long had the ability to invade and conquer Taiwan--if China is willing to endure the casualties.
What China is now gaining with the naval build up the analyst describes is the ability to hold off the American military until China can conquer Taiwan. That is something new.
And even if America builds naval and air power to be able to defeat China's mostly concentrated fleet that will isolate and invade Taiwan, how long will it take America to gather our globally deployed forces to fight and then beat the Chinese fleet? Just having American superiority at a higher level of forces because of the time it would take to gather superiority of forces could be sufficient for Chinese ambitions.
Which means that the issue must be affected by Taiwan.
Remember, China doesn't have to defeat America to conquer Taiwan. China just needs to slow down American's military rescue until China can conquer Taiwan.
So the Taiwanese need to react to the trends of increased Chinese ability to invade Taiwan while holding off America's rescue mission by making sure that Taiwan can fight and hold off the Chinese for as long as it takes for American (and likely Japanese) to reach Taiwan and contribute forces to repelling and defeating--and ejecting, lest a stalemate pave the way for the next round of fighting--the Chinese invasion.
Can Taiwan do this?
Taiwan's president said Sunday her government will step up security measures to respond to military threats from China.
This is long past due. Taiwan's submarine ambitions--which I've long supported--may finally become a reality eventually. But will Taiwan get a significant sub force in time to make a difference?
Why the Taiwanese don't wake up every single day worrying about what they will do that day to make Taiwan harder to conquer is beyond me.
Taiwan spends way too little considering the growing behemoth across the strait that wants Taiwan and is willing to go to war to get Taiwan.
So yeah, by all means Taiwan should step up security measures. Now, please.
