Cue the "Bad Luck"

Colombia votes for "bad luck" by choosing a "former" Marxist to lead them.

The Axis of El Vil gets a new member: (tip to Instapundit):

On June 19, Colombians elected former Marxist guerrilla Gustavo Petro as their next president.

We spent decades helping Colombia defeat the major Marxist insurgent group that began fighting in 1964 (although violence goes back longer).

And then Colombian voters reward the Marxists after that long effort to defeat them and a close-up view of Venezuela under their kind of rule? WTF? 

But after getting the main insurgent group to agree to stop fighting, this 2022 outcome was the effing peace plan, after all:

I can't find an article I read that did give me pause about the deal. I think it died as a saved tab in a Windows update restart.  Amnesty is one thing, but the deal that our government also pushed also had the Colombian government paying for FARC radio stations to enable the rebels/drug dealers to transition to a legitimate political party.

Why should the government (and people) of Colombia pay to have the rebels wage war by other means, I wondered? By all means, the amnestied rebels should have the freedom of speech that other Colombians have, but why subsidize that which the government fought for so many decades to defeat?

Colombians narrowly rejected the deal. The "revised" deal did not go to the voters. Which was probably the major revision.

Which worried me five years ago:

A rose by any other name: "Colombia's FARC former guerrillas relaunched Friday as a political party, changing their logo of rifles for a red rose after disarming to end a half-century civil conflict." I hope that Colombians aren't fooled by a bunch of "former" narco-communist terrorists wearing suits.

But the Colombians were fooled. Let's see how long the peace deal terms protecting opposition groups in statute last under a new "former" Marxist guerrilla.

Still, maybe this time they'll try that "true" communism I hear so many great things about. But when Columbia runs into a horrible string of "bad luck" the way Venezuela did under communist lunatics, we'll know it wasn't the "true" version, after all.

NOTE: My most recent war coverage is here.

America Can and Should Reinforce NATO

Even with China the main priority for America's military, America needs to--and can afford to--reinforce Europe.

Lord knows I'm not the first to jump up and defend Biden. But these complaints made a couple weeks ago about American planned deployments to Europe are off base. 

Unfortunately, [while the corps headquarters and additional American Army brigade are good,] President Joe Biden's other pledges are seriously misguided. These include an increase in the number of Navy destroyers stationed in Spain from four to six, the deployment of two additional F-35 squadrons to Britain, and the stationing of additional air defense units in Germany and Italy.

A couple F-35 squadrons will pose a great threat to Russian air defenses and lines of supply. And additional Army air defense systems are needed in Europe to protect prepositioned equipment and bases for NATO reinforcements flowing in to the east. 

We are far away. Our reinforcements have a long way to go to get to eastern Europe. And even European forces would have to battle through Russian air and missile strikes. We need to defend these lines of communication and supply.

And keep in mind that the air defense asset going to Italy is part of the unit going to Germany. So just one unit. 

Two squadrons and a single air defense unit are not depriving INDOPACOM of assets. There are limited bases in the Pacific for Army and Air Force assets to battle China. They are crowded enough already.

Also, two missile defense destroyers had best not be the difference between victory and defeat in the Pacific. One, they are needed in Europe for mobile missile defense. Two, they can sail to the Pacific if needed. 

As to the NATO 2% of GDP goal being undermined by these small American deployments, Russia's bloody and war crimes-filled invasion of Ukraine killed that worry. 

Technically NATO states have until 2024 to meet that goal. It is true that some--perhaps most--won't make that deadline. But the trend is going up. Russia's invasion will accelerate that. I don't think America will be left holding the line even though American forces are critical to knitting NATO's combat power together.

America must not lose Europe. And a relatively modest American commitment can help Europeans hold it. 

NOTE: My most recent war coverage is here.

The Winter War of 2022 Gets Shaped for Future Operations

Russia's operational pause ... sort of ... continues despite being formally ended while Russia degrades Ukraine's strength until Russia can resume a ground offensive. Ukraine shapes the battlefield for a real counteroffensive with deep strikes on Russia's command and control capabilities, and strikes Russia's artillery ammunition supply. 

The map above shows my worry and my hope from early on. Neither has happened yet.

Russia failed to carry out an encirclement in the Donbas, although it did complete the conquest of Luhansk province at great cost. Russia's offensive, with everything scraped together for a narrow offensive in Luhansk province, has seemingly culminated.

Ukraine paid a heavy price, too, trading space for time. It has launched counter-attacks but has yet to begin a counteroffensive that could achieve decisive results. Can Ukraine do that before Russia repairs its ground forces?

As this analysis from the Dupuy Institute puts it (tip to Instapundit):

You either have the aggregated combat power to move forward against your opponent or you don’t. If you don’t, then you halt and rest. Of course, your opponent also gets to rest. Which army is in more need of rest, which army is receiving more new and modern equipment, which army is receiving more new trained troops?

From last week we see the two sides sparring for position:

Ukrainian forces have struck at least three Russian military sites in southern Ukraine as they intensified their counteroffensive in the region, while Russia maintained its shelling of towns and cities in the east, south, and center of the country.

The Russians have been pounding Ukraine for months now. Ukraine's effort is both new and small:

“Russian forward ammunition dumps are quite possibly the most unsafe places in any war zone,” explained an American army handbook published in 2016. Munitions were not stored safely, it noted, and many dated from the Soviet era, close to their expiry dates, creating “a tinderbox ready to explode”. “Priority targeting of these areas will cause a serious logistics strain on the Russian system,” it concluded. Ukrainian generals are now putting that theory to the test. 

The Ukrainians are attacking key targets and not just supply dumps, using unguided rockets to pave the way for the GPS-guided rockets:

Can Russia defend, disperse, and conceal those targets? Can Russia destroy Ukraine's weapons inflicting the damage? Can Russia continue its firepower-intensive operations with successful coping mechanisms?

And if Russia can't cope sufficiently, can Ukraine exploit that success with an operational victory that destroys Russian units and liberates territory in large chunks?

Oddly, according to this ISW update, Russia's operational pause was prematurely ended. Formally, anyway. Is this political pressure from Putin on his military? Is it a "use it or lose it" decision in the face of Ukrainian attacks on Russian ammunition dumps? It certainly isn't because Russia has restored their ground forces to fighting trim.

And then there's the volksgrenadier  volunteer battalions that Putin ordered formed to replace his army's losses. Expensive, ill-trained cannon fodder doesn't seem like a war-winning combination.

If Ukraine can't seize the initiative, Russia will eventually resume its offensive. Which may not be enough to conquer Ukraine. But it may be enough to solidify Russia's control of what it took this year. Which will allow Russia to recover and resume the war from more advanced position in the future if Russia is willing to endure the casualties again.

ISW updates continue here.

Weekend Data Dump

Sending in the robots.

Russian artillery usage. Lack of training and equipment limits their potential. Ukraine is beginning to target the Russian ammunition supply that enables Russian operations.

Meanwhile in space: “A Space Force X-37B reusable space plane surpassed 780 days in space July 7, eclipsing its prior endurance record.”

Russia’s doomsday nuclear torpedo. To avoid our almost non-existent missile defenses? Get real. Our ASW capabilities are far greater than our missile defenses. I imagine we’d drop torpedoes on Poseidon and destroy them all. I’m just not worried.

Developments in Russia. Also, America recognizes the Russian Kerch Strait bridge as a legitimate target.

I'm starting to have some sympathy for the Red Guards during China's Cultural Revolution who sent the university professors to the farms to do something useful. Too many professors pile up words and arcane jargon to hide the fact that they are highly partisan morons.

Erdogan is in trouble?

Another good jihadi: "An American drone strike killed the leader of the Islamic State in Syria on Tuesday, U.S. Central Command announced." Funny how losing the Afghanistan war didn't end the war on terror.

Massive firepower is a traditional method to make up for poor quality troops. Russia has been doing this since their troops retreated from their Kiev offensive. Will Ukraine break Russia's ability to use massive firepower?

HUMINT.

How bad off is Russia if getting Iranian weapons is a big deal? And if true, how is it that Iran can provide "hundreds" of drones and we've committed to only a dozen HIMARS?

Peace is their profession.

Australia is developing a strategy to oppose China based on long-range strike weapons, a nuclear-powered submarine force, and A2/AD capabilities "in cooperation with the United States[.]"

Does South Korea's decision to buy 20 F-35As imply a South Korean light carrier and a blue water navy is pushed back? 

Biden lost the Afghanistan war and now claims (falsely) that American troops aren't fighting in CENTCOM any more. Worse, the administration is condemning Afghanistan resistance to the Taliban. Jihadis will build their sanctuary there and we'll live to regret it. What is wrong with this administration?

Practicing American-Australian logistics.

Why would anyone read what this lying asshole has to say about foreign policy? Truly, he is a repulsive man.

The Navy exercised "innocent passage" in the South China Sea in a low-key challenge to Chinese territorial claims. 

As Russia's offensive pauses to rebuild ground power, tentative signs of Ukraine striking back.

Canada releases important equipment to enable Russia to export energy to Europe. But don't blame Canada too much. America and Europe backed that decision.

Russia ordered regional governments to organize volunteer battalions. The stripped down "battalions" of 400 men must just be light infantry cannon fodder with little in the way of heavy support. With little training, can they survive long in combat?

A tragic inability to distinguish between news and propaganda. Tip to Instapundit.

Using the S-300 air defense missile as a surface-to-surface missile. That isn't the only SAM that can be used that way.

Thanks California!

I think our country would be better off if about half of our professors had to learn to code or make half-caff cappuccinos.

Interesting information on the Ukraine War.

China is developing the H-20 stealth bomber. I wonder what its anti-ship capabilities will be. And by all means beef up Guam's air defenses.

Belarus ruler-for-life Lukashenko found that submitting to an Anschluss with Russia was necessary for his personal survival. But his people have complex reactions to that now. Was that a bad bet when Putin is eager for Lukashenko to join his war on Ukraine?

I'd be encouraged except that Biden thinks a deal with Iran is the means to do this: "U.S. President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid signed a joint pledge on Thursday to deny Iran nuclear arms, a show of unity by allies long divided over diplomacy with Tehran."

Inflation. Tip to Instapundit.

So, Nigeria is fun.

I'm sure I'd puke up my gutsy if I watched.

Too many of America's combat aircraft aren't combat worthy: "They are likely grounded due to maintenance problems, lack of spare parts, or just general wear and tear." Pray our enemies are in worse shape.

Hello China: "The Australian government is set to announce the design for its first nuclear submarine in the first quarter of 2023, ..." And it wants a faster timeline to deployment.

Well, we're aware of Pacific island nations, at least. It would be nice not to have to fight for them again.

I'm happy about this (via Instapundit): "Democrats are becoming the party of upscale voters concerned more about issues like gun control and abortion rights." And: "Republicans are quietly building a multiracial coalition of working-class voters, with inflation as an accelerant." I used to at least admire Democrats for being pro-blue collar and pro freedom of speech and personal liberties. They lost that. So it is good that Republicans pick that up--and more. I don't like the isolationist component of the Republican evolution. Democrats remain supportive of foreign wars or helping friends fight common enemies only when a Democrat is president.

Cruise missiles are also a threat to the American homeland. Thoughts on that issue that don't rely on more fighter planes.

A pair of B-2 stealth bombers rotated into Australia for training. There has been extra Australia news lately.

Here we go: "The Royal Air Force’s experiments with drone swarms show they can overwhelm enemy defenses, and the concept would be ready for action in a war, according to the U.K. military service’s chief of staff." I'm worried about defending the "brown skies" over our forward troops, as I explored in Army magazine.

Air power has not been heavily used in the Winter War of 2022. Ukraine needs to preserve an air force that forces Russia to defend against the threat. And Russia is unwilling to risk expensive air power for this war when artillery and missiles can compensate for cautious air use. But in dire straits, they'd each burn their aircraft as Israel was forced to do in the early days of the 1973 war in the face of strong air defenses.

This means "reduce": "French President Emmanuel Macron said on Wednesday he wanted a 'rethink of all our (military) postures on the African continent' and had asked his ministers and army chiefs to work on it."

Our enemies likely can't believe their luck to have (via Instapundit) an administration willing to fire troops for refusing to get a shot for what has become a cold-like Xi Jinping Flu virus. Our leaders think there are many substitutes for victory. Not content to thwart a good military in battle, now they want to create a poor quality military. FFS.

I've been puzzled about the status of Snake Island. It was clear that Russia retreated from it under fire. But Ukrainian occupation was unclear until I eventually read that Ukraine did land troops. Which seemed rash to me and as exposed as Russian troops were. Apparently Ukraine planted the flag and got the heck out of Dodge.

The United States really has no method for calculating relative combat power. I've noted our weakness. And here's a post working on the 3:1 rule that is so often mis-used.

It's easier to survive your tank's destruction if there is no fire. Surviving means you can get a new (or repaired) tank. So accept that tanks die. But protect the crew.

I mentioned this in a prior data dump. I guess we're that stupid.

Hamas reminds us they exist: "The Israeli military attacked what it said was a Hamas military site in the Gaza Strip early Saturday in response to a pair of rocket attacks overnight."

The Powerline Week in Pictures. 

Ukraine uses SADARM 2.0.

Hostage-taking on a grand scale: "U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has accused Russia of forcibly deporting hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians from areas it controls in the east and south of the country to Russia."

The United States may train Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16s and F-15s. 

Belarus is hanging around the edges of the war. Talking tough. But I can't imagine Lukashenko willingly attacking Ukraine with his weak military and divided country. His talk of a "big war" may justify his keeping out of the war to be ready for that big one.

Our woke senior military leadership under woke civilian orders has effed up a wet dream (via Instapundit): "The general public’s declining connection and trust in the nation and its institutions paired with the elites’ incessant culture war targeting the very Americans who traditionally served in the highest numbers spells trouble." Our enemies can only marvel at their luck. As I've observed:

 

No longer a useful idiot. Spreading the official "truth". Via Instapundit.

Ukraine gets its first MLRS, the original tracked version of the more recent HIMARS.

Europe faces a cold winter yet the West seems bizarrely unwilling to figuratively open the spigots on fossil fuel energy production and infrastructure expansion. Europe can't replace Russian energy in the short run, but maybe we can make the difference between freezing and surviving.

Is China's economy really headed for "free fall"?

LOL! "The world, Blair said, was at a turning point in history comparable with the end of World War Two or the collapse of the Soviet Union: but this time the West is clearly not in the ascendant." I don't think that former prime minister's pessimism will age well. 

Satirical Russian cartoon skewers Russia's justification for invading Ukraine. Satirical--for now. 

Green suicide. Well, murder-suicide. But I've made no pact with the nutballs. Via Instapundit.

I've expected a Ukrainian counter-offensive on the Kherson front for months. The Ukrainians say they will attack there. The Russians seem to expect an attack there. Which makes me wonder if Ukraine will attack there.

And Now For Something Completely Different

I know, that you're following another blogggg. Don't care, 'cause I read you, blogger, that's no lie...  I read you more than I did, when you were memed. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

The Return of History Accelerates

Russia's aggression in 2008 and 2014 began the resumption of history supposedly ended when the West won the Cold War. Russia's full invasion of Ukraine this year has accelerated it.

Russia is pushing in to Europe, Germany is standing up, and America decided to come back in:

The U.S. will add air defenses in Germany and Italy, increase the number of F-35 squadrons in the United Kingdom and put additional warships in Spain, President Joe Biden announced Wednesday as NATO’s summit in Madrid got underway.

Biden also said the U.S. Army’s V Corps headquarters in Poland will become permanent and a new rotational brigade will operate out of Romania, giving the military a boost in the strategic Black Sea region.

Some of Biden’s announcements could have referred to plans that were already in the works, but the addition of air defenses in Germany and Italy appears to be a new measure.

The Department of Defense outlined what America has been doing to reinforce NATO, including ground forces:

[An] Amphibious Readiness Group and Marine Expeditionary Force [they meant to write a Marine Expeditionary Unit]. DoD added a Corps Headquarters, Division Headquarters, Infantry Brigade Combat Team (IBCT), Armored Brigade Combat Team (ABCT), High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) battalion, and multiple enablers to the existing Corps Forward Command Post, Division Headquarters, and three BCTs already stationed in or deployed to Europe.

And even more countries are seeing the value of NATO as history returns:

Late on June 28, the leaders of Finland, Sweden, and Turkey signed a trilateral memorandum on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Madrid, paving the way for the Nordic duo to join the military alliance.

The United States began hedging as Russia revived its imperial ambitions by preparing to return to Europe in case of war. And America decided to add Army unit sets in Europe to speed that up. Russia has shown that NATO can't wait that long. So America is getting that corps in NATO I've long wanted (starting on page 15). The headquarters, at least. That will help.

UPDATE: Putting V Corps headquarters in Poland was enabled by establishing logistics in the east, which was a logistics desert until NATO worked on it after having the problem exposed in the first Ukraine crisis.

NOTE: War coverage continues here.

Build the Ability to Keep Shooting

In this article, lessons for the Army from the Winter War of 2022 are offered. They are reasonable and I've mentioned some of them. And the one about depth of the fighting force is particularly important.

You can't just be good in the first week of war. You may need to fight better in the first month or first year. And that means sustained resupply and rebuilding depleted units with troops and equipment again and again:

Russian and Ukrainian forces have both sustained crippling losses of units, equipment, and personnel during the past four months, and will likely continue to do so until the war ends. Staggering losses of troops and materiel will be an unavoidable characteristic of any future high-intensity conflict. That means that the Army must figure out how to weather steep losses in soldiers, aircraft, and armored vehicles of all types while continuing to fight effectively. 

Yes. I submitted an essay on this last year. I really need to revise it and resubmit elsewhere. And I have addressed the issue of dealing with high loss rates for tanks. And a year ago I noted why we can't build F-22s and what we should learn from that:

Basically we ended the production line, supply sources, and skilled workers for the plane and can't easily (or cheaply) rebuild that. Which may be why it may seem like I'm screeching like a tween girl at a boy band concert when I report that the F-16 and F-15 production lines are continuing. If we find ourselves in a lengthy conventional war, those older and proven planes will be major sources of replacement for losses of our stealth planes.

I started out that submitted essay with a British quote about dealing with 19th century Somali bandits: "Shoot on sight, shoot first, shoot to kill, keep shooting".

It is too easy to focus on the technology to enable the first three while forgetting the boring industrial base, logistics, and mass training of troops to conduct the last key part.

UPDATE: Related thoughts on the financial and industrial foundation to wage war.

NOTE: War coverage continues here.

The Digital Camp Followers

The Winter War of 2022 has created an interesting logistics network that relies on private donations to supply needs identified by units in combat. Both Russia and Ukraine do this, but Russia's refusal to admit it is in anything but a "special military operation" hinders motivation to help. But be careful with this development.

Ukraine especially is turning to private groups for logistics help to keep their army fighting:

Civilian assistance for the military effort has been a feature of Ukrainian resistance from Day 1 of the Feb. 24 invasion, as ordinary folk dropped everything to help and raided their bank accounts to equip hastily assembled new units. From modest beginnings, including telephone hotlines for donations that were immediately overwhelmed with calls, crowd-funding initiatives have matured into well-oiled machines. They have online payment systems and slick websites explaining their needs, and volunteers applying their expertise in civilian fields — logistics, technology, purchasing, electronics — to help get supplies into troops' hands.

This extends to Ukrainian models sending (tasteful, I'm told) nude photographs to donors. 

In the past, civilian "camp followers" trailed an army and provided support services to the troops. This included sex workers, which eventually twisted the meaning of "camp follower" to just that aspect. 

This modern digital camp follower program in Ukraine that supplies even weapons is a step up from what Americans did during the Iraq War. And it is beyond what I projected with direct intelligence support in the field. Although I suspect that happens in Ukraine, too. But perhaps not as organized as the logistics effort.

And this type of effort opens up new angles. Like celebrity commanders and units that compete for this logistics support. Film your exploits, get them out to the public, and directly appeal to civilians worldwide for support. And even recruits.

Hints of this potential problem are already evident (from the initial article):

The foundation run by Prytula, the TV personality, prioritizes its aid for units in combat hot spots. Unit commanders list their needs and locations on an online form.

That would be a damaging development that the government would need to suppress and harness for the entire military. For now, the hotspots and units in need might be obvious. But that could easily move into who is more popular because they are gifted at self-promotion.

But for now, it is a way to keep the people in the war effort for the survival of Ukraine and make needed contributions to fill gaps in the government supply effort. In a way, the Ukrainian army is swimming in a digital sea.

NOTE: War coverage continues here.

Twenty Years at Blog

So today is my twentieth anniversary of blogging under The Dignified Rant banner.

I started on Geocities on July 12, 2002. Which eventually became Yahoo!Geocities. My blogfather was James Lileks, who celebrated 25 years of The Bleat this year. I planned numerous categories of writing subjects, from foreign policy to home life. I wondered if I could manage to update it once a week.

Hah!

Originally I didn't even have hyperlinks. I had main subject pages with archives pages behind them. I moved an article off the main page as I added new material. And when I did add hyperlinks after I started to get links from Instapundit, it was a complicated process of double posting to the main subject page and the subject page archives. The hyperlink went to the archives duplicate. Eventually I'd delete the main page version.

It was the digital equivalent of a wax tablet. Held together by duct tape.

Then I moved national security-related posts to Blogger. And then moved everything when Yahoo!Geocities was shut down. I eventually managed to salvage my old archives after Yahoo!Geocities went under.

Yay. Future historians rejoice.

I tried to mine TDR for compilations of posts on subjects. I only did one and it was too much work for the effort. I don't have a tip jar but if you want to support my work, feel free to buy my one and only product in that series. It's here. Buy it often if you want! I freely admit the formatting is crappy. I didn't know what I didn't know. But it looked great on my screen before I uploaded it. And I'm not going to reformat it. But it is an interesting topic if an old take on the subject.

But I will say that writing the blog kept me learning. And occasionally I turned topics I blogged about into published articles. 

My posting went up over the years, especially after I moved to the Blogger platform. Eventually, I felt I had to limit my posting. It seemed excessive, even to me. As time went on, I moved from limiting myself to 3 posts per day, to 2 posts, and now 1 post. This forced me to suppress the impulse to immediately blog about an event lest the world not see my immediate take on the issue.

I'm much better, now.

Indeed, I'm generally posting one or two weeks ahead. That's pre-Internet speed.

As my children got older, I stopped blogging about each in turn. On the original site I added coding to prevent search sites from indexing those posts. My compromise once on Blogger was to stop blogging when they each got to the age when I figured it would be social suicide to have posts about them online. I never mentioned them by name, at least. So now I hardly mention them. But they grew up over the time of this blog from wonderful children to fine young adults. And I have a record separate from boxes or digital files of pictures with no dates to place them in time.

Blog traffic started very low. I can still remember being happy to have at least one page view each day of a month! Over time, traffic went up to reach 100 per day. But it was a slow slog without ever really skyrocketing.

And then the Blog Die Off happened. 

Twitter's sweet meteor of death and social media in general crushed the blogosphere. My traffic, which fell by about 80% by the time I hit bottom, was no exception. Last year traffic recovered substantially. I don't know why. But I'm still not anywhere near pre-Twitter levels. We'll see if I can maintain that momentum.

I contemplated adding Twitter and social media to bolster TDR, but ultimately could not bear to enter that cesspool of intolerance. I don't regret that. 

I've tried hard to post with integrity. I have my views on politics. Which are mostly pretty obvious. But I can set that aside to comment on the national security issues of the day. I may be wrong on an issue, but I base my analysis on my education, experience, and ability to synthesize information from different sources. Don't expect me to be a cheerleader. You won't find my positions on issues changing to support "my" party in power. I've offered honest takes. Sometimes I find older posts that approach a topic from the same angle despite changes in the people on top.

I have never allowed post comments. You can check out my sources and methods section if you want to know why.

Here are twenty posts over the last twenty years, chosen from page views and other factors, in no particular order:

1. Ready. Set. Go.
2. Avert Your Eyes Puny Mortals!
3. Guiding the Objective Force Through a Desert Storm.
4. Anbar Anvil. I actually got an email from a Marine officer in Anbar province who was pleased that I understood what was going on with the Iraq surge offensive in Anbar. I was heartened by that.
5. Getting What We Deserve.
   
6. That's Their Story and They're Sticking To It.
7. You Didn't Lift That. 
8. Collateral Damage.
9. When the Ford Was Still a Blueprint.
10. The Spartans At Least Had 300.
11. Readiness Defined.
12. Great. More Housing Vacancies.
13. Um, Remember Pearl Harbor?
14. Woke Lips Sink Ships.
15. And Now For Something Completely Different.
    
16. Vengeance.
17. Catch-1619.
18. Smells Like Woke Spirit.
19. Spongespine Spandexpants.
20. They Can Always Just Eat More Pie.

Although this excludes pre-Blogger posts. I don't have statistics on them and most are just in mass monthly "posts" after I recovered them. Tragic, I know.

I'm still not suffering from solo blogger burnout. I have grown weary at times. So far I get over that soon enough. But I have adjusted my content over the years. Perhaps that is the key.

So there you go. This got longer than I intended. But it is a twenty-year retrospective! And now you know what my former students put up with and what my children endured when they asked me a history question.

Thanks for reading! We'll see how long I keep this going. I honestly never thought I'd be going this long.

UPDATE: Thanks to Instapundit for helping the celebration along (although yes, I did send word to Vodkapundit about the glorious event). Which is nice given that Instapundit first linked an entry even before I had hyperlinks.

NOTE: War coverage continues here.

The Winter War of 2022 Gets Mass Produced

Russia is grinding down Ukraine's army, inflicting heavy casualties even as Russia endures casualties to achieve this. Does this mean time is on Russia's side? 

Russia began an operational pause to regroup its ground forces.

Ukraine is struggling to push manpower into the fight even as Russia struggles, too. But Russian material superiority is making up for the manpower deficiencies so far. Russia slowly advanced while killing and destroying. Is this going to break Ukraine? 

Ukraine’s troops now face a Russian force that has shifted strategy from the hasty, single-axis attacks that characterized the early weeks of the war. Now there are no more attempts at pincer movements but instead slow but inexorable advances, preceded by massive artillery bombardments—a few kilometers every day all along the front from Izyum in the north to Zaporizhzhia in the south, tightening the noose on a fragile Ukrainian salient protecting the road network that links Kyiv to the east.

Or will Russia expand its objective from the shrunken Donbas goal to make its gains commensurate with its losses? And can that broader objective be obtained?

Do read all of the article.

We still don't have a good handle on casualties on both sides. The author says time is not on Ukraine's side. Although he also says Russian casualties aren't likely to halt Russia, at least in the short run. Which implies that time isn't necessarily on Russia's side.

Still, the author is right that this could be a war of endurance. But does Russia's 3:1 advantage in population and vastly greater GDP mean Russia has the endurance?

On people, you'd think so. But the Iran-Iraq War suggests otherwise. Iran had three times the population while Iraq had the money to build material superiority. Iran had far higher willingness to fight and die. But after years of relentless Iranian offensives, during which Iran lost twice as many troops as Iraq, Iran's morale broke. It was not so simple to say Iran could suffer 3 times the casualties. Indeed, one would have thought superior Iranian fanaticism would make the casualty endurance higher than 3:1. But that did not happen.

Can that experience apply to this war? 

Like Iran, Russia has a 3:1 advantage in population. But Russian morale as a conqueror, that is clearly not liberating people from Nazis, is not superior. This could break Russia before Ukraine. Just how do we define the transition from the short run to the long run?

What about GDP and defense spending? You'd think Russia clearly has the edge with a 9:1 GDP advantage. 

But Russia is under Western sanctions that will harm Russia's ability to go to war production levels. Russian Soviet-era stockpiles will run low in time--or reach the material and ammo almost more dangerous to Russian users than Ukrainian targets.

And Ukraine is being supplied by the West, which has an immensely greater GDP advantage than Russia's advantage over Ukraine. So you can't just count the value of the arms and services provided to Ukraine when comparing the economic advantage. You'd have to count the research and development and logistics value on Ukraine's side of the ledger that provides the weapons, supplies, and services.

So when you compare the scientific, industrial, and military effort on both sides, is Russia really superior in material?

That depends on how much of the products of the Western military-industrial complex is funneled to Ukraine. I can't rule out that the West will end up trying to give enough to defeat Russia but fail to fine tune its effort enough to deprive Russia of victory.

Certainly, the problem of plugging Ukraine into the Western military procurement and logistics system to take advantage of Western weaponry is immense even if the West reduces the limits on what is provided. Perhaps too difficult in the short run. But only if Russia can exploit that problem.

Russia may well be able to grind down Ukraine. That was my view before the war--a partial and ugly win by a Russian military not nearly as good as Russian propaganda portrayed--that left most of Ukraine independent. I was right that the war would be neither short nor glorious for Russia.

The question now is amazingly whether Russia wins. Russia initially performed worse than even I suspected and the West has armed and supported Ukraine more than I hoped. Russia could find itself the victim of that process. 

And until we see one side ground down and breaking, we may not be able to predict it.

ISW updates continue here. 

UPDATE: Per the ISW update, Russia's operational pause seems to have been prematurely ended:

The assaults are still small-scale and were largely unsuccessful. If the operational pause is truly over, the Russians will likely continue and expand such assaults in the coming 72 hours. The Russians might instead alternate briefer pauses with strengthening attacks over a number of days before moving into a full-scale offensive operation. A 10-day-long operational pause is insufficient to fully regenerate Russian forces for large-scale offensive operations. The Russian military seems to feel continuous pressure to resume and continue offensive operations before it can reasonably have rebuilt sufficient combat power to achieve decisive effects at a reasonable cost to itself, however. The resuming Russian offensive may therefore fluctuate or even stall for some time.

The pressure to advance will mean Russia has less chance to succeed. But will it preempt a Ukrainian counteroffensive?

Weekend Data Dump

Iran likes to boast of non-existent wonder weapons. Here's another.

The T-72, its modifications, and whatever the heck Iran is doing with them.

Ukraine rebuilds its navy. And yes, Ukraine did reoccupy Snake Island.

Russia is continuing the war rather than declaring victory. Ukraine has inflicted losses and purchased time. Has the West sent enough to allow Ukraine to exploit those achievements?

Putin seems to have ordered an operational pause after taking Luhansk province. Yet Russian forces continue to attack. Ukraine is striking deeper into Russian rear areas with new weapons. I wonder if that will provoke Russia into premature resumption of a ground offensive--if they even actually pause.

Destroy NATO (to build a future, perfect alliance, naturally) because opposing Russia isn't grand enough? I'm so old I remember when the lack of a unifying threat was proof NATO should be ended. Nobody ever gets their perfection after destroying the imperfect that offends them. Some people just want to see NATO burn.

Ukraine speaks of bleeding Russia's army and exploiting that to liberate territory in the south. Ukraine can't wait too long to do that. Can Ukraine prepare before Russia repairs its army enough to hold its gains?

I reject this kind of Decline Porn. Even aside from rejecting most of his litany of failure. Russia is declining. China is peaking. India is stalled. The proto-imperial European Union is weak and fragile. Who replaces America?

Our Navy command structure sank one of our capital ships. This shocks ... who?

Is Putin going to shift to taking Odessa? We'll see if the Ukrainian counter-offensive there begins first. Or if Donetsk province is easier to shift to because the Russian troops are already on that front.

As naval surveillance systems proliferate, a sensor-strike net will bring down the naval behemoths.

Suppressing actual or potential dissent in Russia.

A South Korean defense agency supports 20 more F-35As.

A Stryker brigade will rotate through South Korea instead of a tank brigade--which will leave its equipment in South Korea. Makes sense with higher demand for tank brigades in Europe.

Who goes where on NATO's eastern front.

From the Euro "Well, Duh" files.

I'm so old I remember when our intellectual and moral superiors in the Biden administration said the Taliban 2.0 would be reasonable and eager to get the approval of the sainted international community.

The multi-faceted campaign for Kherson.

Ukraine can defeat the Russian army and win the war if the West sufficiently backs Ukraine. I certainly expected Russia to grind out an expensive win before the West could even decide to support Ukraine. But Putin screwed up. And even with a retooled and narrow offensive, Russia is taking heavy casualties to make its slow advances. Talk like this threatens to be a self-fulfilling prophecy. Let's not panic "face the facts" and force Ukraine to lose. Russia may hold Ukrainian territory when this is over. Minimizing that is an important objective. Whatever that turns out to be, if enough Russian troops die achieving it Russia might shrink from invading again much as Finland survived after being defeated by Russia in 1940.

The Congressional Research Service report to Congress on Ukraine's military performance.

I certainly hope Ukraine can knock the damn thing down.

Congratulations. And good luck with an aggressive China so close. FFS, the Philippines isn't "squarely on the frontlines of Great Power competition between the U.S. and China." The Philippines is the frontline of China's subliminal push to annex Filipino territory. How long can the new Marcos pretend he can negotiate away the push?

Interesting. Are we really sending too many people to prison when in the past the vast categories of people who are now in prison would have been held in other institutions not called "prisons"? Tip to Instapundit.

Yes, the federal bureaucracy is too powerful. Many years ago, Michigan had JCAR, a bicameral legislative committee that had to approve agency administrative rules. Often, agencies withdrew rules to address JCAR concerns that they did not reflect the statutes as enacted. So there were few proposed rules rejected. A record some used to wrongly claim the committee was just a needless rubber stamp. Somehow the Michigan Supreme Court ruled the process unconstitutional as a "legislative veto." Which always seemed ridiculous to me. But I'm not a lawyer.

American recruiting problems. Get woke, get broke defeated.

Russian brutality is stiffening Western resolve to help Ukraine defeat Russia.

Former Japanese prime minister Abe was assassinated. He began rearming and was a good friend to America.

With Russia forced to focus on Ukraine and Turkey under financial pressure, does Libya have chance? With an assist from the UAE.

Prime Minister Johnson resigned. He got goofy on domestic policies. But he finished Brexit (I hope). And was strong on Ukraine.

America’s new ICBM design runs into a problem.

Russia is in an operational pause to repair ground forces. But that doesn’t mean all quiet on the Russian front.

Defending Guam. And projecting power from it, of course.

January 6th: THE MUSICAL.

Americas is sending four more HIMARS and 155mm ammo, among other things, to Ukraine.

France to increase its defense budget.

Yeah, I worry less about Chinese carriers than other vessels. The Chinese carriers might be red herrings for a distracting SINKEX.  

More? How about "any?" So far I've only seen evidence that the J6 Democrats and their goodlife "Republicans" are delusional.

Week in Pictures.

Covid is now basically no more lethal than the usual flu viruses.

Conservatives celebrate America on July 4th even though only the Supreme Court and toeholds in higher education and the news media are friendly. Leftists control nearly everything and couldn't celebrate July 4th.

From the joint working group on the bloody obvious.

Vying for Allie’s in the economic war.

Japan can build warships. Why can’t America do a good job?

Gulf of Mexico pirates. What fresh Hell is this, now?

I don’t think Putin’s army can cash the check he’s writing.

One hates to say it, but by fighting so hard for Luhansk province Ukraine has given Russia a huge repair job.

Russia's offensive worked at all because of its massive artillery use. Is the U.S. Army paying attention?

"Green" EVs. 

Consider that some portion of those who disapprove of Biden's performance do so because they think he hasn't been leftist enough.

And Now For Something Completely Different

You see it all around you. Good memin' gone bad. And usually it's too late when you, realize what you had.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
This is a repeat.

 

 

 

 

 

Russia Should Not Be Appeased

Does the West need to provide Russia with a generous "off ramp" to end its war on Ukraine? No. engineering a ceasefire that "saves" Ukraine by giving Russia some of Ukraine will eventually be described as a Western betrayal that denied Russia's glorious military all of Ukraine.

French President Macron is only the most visible proponent in the West of that idea:

Macron, who had been widely criticized for recently declaring that Russia shouldn’t be “humiliated,” doubled down on that notion. He said that the harsh terms imposed on Germany after its loss in World War I had been “a historic mistake” that “lost the peace because [France] wanted to humiliate Germany.” The implication is that if Russia is not treated with leniency now, it will commit far worse crimes in the future, just as Germany did in World War II.

The author rightly points out that this assumes Russia loses the war. 

So sure, trying to get Russia to accept a generous face-saving retreat now risks taking steps that undermine the Russian defeat that is assumed. Cart, horse, and relative position, of course.

And the author writes we already saw what Putin did with a Western decision to let Russia keep what it took from Ukraine in 2014 and 2015--another much bigger war this year. Yet this time, for sure?

Seriously?

But let's take the history-based worry at face value. Was Germany humiliated after World War I, paving the way for the next war? 

I think that is a completely wrong way to frame that issue, as I explained prior to Russia's invasion of Georgia:

Russia isn't a part of the West because Russia's leaders lately have been a bunch of a-holes. Right now I'm glad we've pushed NATO east as fast as possible. Russia has a lot further to go if it ever rebuilds its military and that alone will deter the Russians. I seriously get an eerie inter-war feel for the whole situation.

You know, the common wisdom is that the Treaty of Versailles was too harsh on Imperial Germany after World War I, which led to the rise of Hitler. When you compare the occupation, dismemberment, and de-Nazification of Germany after 1945 which created a prosperous and democratic allied Germany, you have to conclude that the Allies weren't nearly harsh enough in 1918.

And since 1991, we've treated the Russians with kid gloves, and now they too think they've been betrayed and deny they were really defeated in the Cold War. Now the Russians pretend they were being reasonable and just voluntarily gave up their empire. Of course, occupying Russia and de-Commiefying Moscow was never going to happen. We didn't have much choice at the time since Russia still had lots of working nukes. But the result has been a Russia that increasingly acts like they want to be our enemy.

We need to defeat Russia. We started to do that and must finish it without worrying about humiliating Russia:

Don't let the Russian military claim it was "stabbed in the back" by failing to help Ukraine defeat Russia's invasion clearly and drive it back. And if you are worried about "humiliating" Russia by helping Ukraine defeat Russia's invasion, that's all on Putin. He can end that worry by withdrawing from his gains made this year while he still has an army willing to fight and die for him.

Any Western deal that gives Russia a partial win will eventually be portrayed by Russia as a stab in the back denying Russia their deserved complete victory.

That will guarantee another war. Perhaps directly against the West to take away Ukraine's source of weapons and support before turning against Ukraine again.

If you want an "off ramp" for Russia in a policy of defeating Russia's aggression, be prepared to offer phased ending of economic sanctions of Russia as they restore peace with Ukraine. Outside of weapons-related sanctions as long as Russia chooses to be run by the paranoid hostile nutballs that plunged Europe into war.

And in that area, as I've suggested for some time since the 2014 invasion, I'd even explore the idea of leasing Crimea to Russia on a long-term basis. I'm not sure Ukraine wants its pro-Russia (and often actual Russians) people back inside Ukraine. Why not lease the peninsula to Russia, which concedes Ukraine owns it and the mineral rights in the waters off its shores?

As dangerous as defeating Russia may seem, that is the safest outcome in the long run.

NOTE: My latest war coverage is here.