Damn the Drones. Full Speed Ahead!

The Red Sea Production of Resolve Theater continues. America pretends to deter murderous enemies. Our murderous enemies don't play along.

CDR Salamander is correct:

Since the orgy of rape, murder, torture, and kidnapping that rolled out of Gaza into Israel a little under 10 months ago, the United States Navy has led a halting international naval force, interestingly called Operation Prosperity Guardian (OPG), into the Red Sea to - well - guard prosperity, I presume.

A lesser included mission in OPG, intended or not, is to demonstrate the deterrent power of Western sea power against the quasi-piratical Houthi forces attacking international shipping passing to and from the Suez Canal.

The funny thing about deterrence is that if you don’t do it properly, or worse balk at it, you create exactly the opposite conditions from what you wanted. 

In the last Weekend Data Dump I had several entries on the Red Sea Resolve Theater:

Huh: "The Houthi forces who have been attacking shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden lack a center of gravity, making for deterrence by U.S and partner forces difficult, the commander of U.S. naval forces in the Middle East said in a webinar." Really? Don't deter! And of course they have a center of gravity.

And:

Huh: "U.S. forces have launched roughly 800 missiles and seven rounds of air strikes against the Iran-backed Houthi rebels that have controlled Yemen since November in what has become the most sustained military campaign by American forces since the anti-ISIS air war[.]" Sustained? Prolonged? Whatever.

And:

About that center of gravity the Houthi supposedly lack: "Speaking at a virtual event on Wednesday, Vice Adm. George Wikoff, commander of Naval Forces Central Command, said the Houthis are well armed and have strong and consistent supply lines into Iran, 'and are looking for a reason to use it.'"

Protecting sea trade is important. But we won't.

As I always say, using force isn't counter-productive. Ineffective use of force is counter-productive. That might as well be the Navy's mission statement.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: I'm now on Substack, with The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

China Turns the Amphibious Warfare Ship Dial to Eleven

Where does China anticipate using its new large amphibious warfare ships?

CSIS reports that China will launch a new, huge amphibious warfare ship in 2025: 

Following its launch, it will require several months, or even years, before it is fully commissioned into the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN).

The vessel is poised to become the largest amphibious assault ship in the world. Its flight deck measures approximately 260 meters by 52 meters—equivalent to nearly 13,500 square meters, or the size of three American football fields.

The Type 076’s impressive dimensions surpass those of the US Navy’s America-class LHAs and the Japanese Izumo-class helicopter carriers. It is also significantly larger than its Chinese predecessor, the Type 075.

In the big picture, America's inability to match China's ability to build warships scares the Hell out of me.

More narrowly, I suspect this is for peacetime power projection or missions not related to landing on Taiwan. As I noted in this post about China's carriers, China has more need to be able to evacuate its people abroad during a crisis without relying on the kindness of strangers.

While it could be used to invade Taiwan, China already has a gargantuan assault platform stationed off of Taiwan's coast.

UPDATE: China's new, huge Type 076 amphibious warfare ship has a catapult for launching aircraft? Huh.

Just what is this ship's purpose? I'm going to guess China wants a America-type ship that's bigger and badder--because that's how China rolls--for peacetime power projection despite the lack of local air bases or the availability of supporting ships from the PLAN or allies.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: I'm now on Substack, with The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

The Hamas War Becomes a Side Show

A rumor of broader war spreads in the Middle East as Iran feels compelled to protect their proxy Hamas. 

Is this the reason for the delay in Iran's telegraphed strikes on Israel?

Iran is likely trying to expand divisions within Israel and between Israel and the United States ahead of a possible Iranian drone and missile attack. Three anonymous senior Iranian officials speaking to Reuters on August 13 claimed that Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah would refrain from attacking Israel if it reached a ceasefire-hostage agreement with Hamas.

We'll see. But Iran isn't the only actor.

Sh*t got real: 

Secretary Austin reiterated the United States' commitment to take every possible step to defend Israel and noted the strengthening of U.S. military force posture and capabilities throughout the Middle East in light of escalating regional tensions. Reinforcing this commitment, Secretary Austin has ordered the USS ABRAHAM LINCOLN Carrier Strike Group, equipped with F-35C fighters, to accelerate its transit to the Central Command area of responsibility, adding to the capabilities already provided by the USS THEODORE ROOSEVELT Carrier Strike Group.

Additionally, the Secretary has ordered the USS Georgia (SSGN 729) guided missile submarine to the Central Command region.

Iran wants to support their proxies. But America might really disapprove in a cruise missile barrage sort of way. That's one problem with client groups (or states). 

And sure, that dynamic applies to America, too. Sometimes they drag you into war rather than insulate you from war.

If Hezbollah and Iran seriously enter this war, a new phase of the Last Hamas War begins. Much as in 2006 when the original Hamas fight was forgotten when the Hezbollah front opened.

Speaking of that 2006 Hezbollah front:

Israeli reliance on poorly understood and controversial Effects-Based Operations (EBO) and Systemic Operational Design (SOD) warfighting theories, and a nearly singular dependence on air power, were root causes of Israeli problems. Additionally, after years of counterinsurgency (COIN) operations in the Gaza Strip and West Bank territories, IDF ground forces were tactically unprepared and untrained to fight against a determined Hezbollah force that conducted what was, in many ways, a conventional, fixed-position defense.

That was basically my view at the time. Let's hope Israel moved on from air power tunnel vision. I think math rules out an air-only campaign, but you never know what political pressures force leadership to believe.

We've been easing into this new phase for a while now. I think I'll call that transition right now. Even if shooting doesn't start between when I wrote this Wednesday morning and when it publishes Thursday. The trend is strong enough. 

UPDATE: Is Iran having second thoughts about a day of missile rage?

"Currently, Iran even sees a chance in the Doha negotiations to gain more by seemingly delaying or suspending their response. The Iranians are essentially on a path of lowering expectations. A total war, which could ultimately be chaotic, could create severe problems for them with a faltering economy and potentially collapse it, as well as threats to the regime itself," Rabi added.

Huh. 

UPDATE: Is this a sign that Israel is prepared to shift gears to wreck Hezbollah in southern Lebanon?

IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said about 56% of Hamas’ estimated 30,000 forces have been wiped out since Israel waged war following the Oct. 7 massacre.

UPDATE: Six of the hostages Hamas took on October 7, 2023 are coming home the hard way:

Israel retrieved the bodies of six hostages from the Gaza Strip, the military said on Tuesday[.]

UPDATE: Is the main event raising the curtain?

Israel and Hezbollah exchanged rocket fire on Wednesday, underlining the risks of a widening Middle East conflict amid US efforts to resurrect flailing ceasefire talks over the war in Gaza.

UPDATE: Fear is the beginning of wisdom:

There appears to be growing criticism of Hamas in Gaza, with some people even posting angry rants against the group on social media. 

Hamas will only lose its appeal if we allow Israel to crush it. Then Gazans will fear being associated with Hamas. Wisdom will require rejecting Hamas.

A premature ceasefire will rescue Hamas. That will make Gazans fear Hamas more than they fear bombs. In that case, wisdom means publicly praising Hamas and promising your children will be happy martyrs for their fight.

UPDATE: The curtain is going up for the main event:

Israel launched a wave of airstrikes across southern Lebanon early Sunday in what it called a preemptive strike to avert a large Hezbollah rocket and missile attack. The militant group responded, saying it fired hundreds of rockets and drones to avenge the killing of a top commander last month.

Both sides halted the heavy exchange of fire by mid-morning, signaling no immediate further escalation.

But it isn't really started until Israeli ground forces move in and head for Baalbek. 

UPDATE: Did Israel's wave of strikes preempt a big escalation? If it did, Hezbollah's rocket-launching capabilities are being overstated. Or maybe Hezbollah doesn't want to die for Iran on this hill.

UPDATE: Good, if true, as they say: "The Hamas terror group’s Rafah Brigade had “collapsed” as a result of the Israel Defense Forces’s ongoing offensive in the city in the southern Gaza Strip[.]"

UPDATE: The West Bank is not safe territory: "The Israeli army announced on Friday that during a large-scale military operation in the northern West Bank, it killed the leader of the Palestinian Islamist organization Hamas responsible for the city of Jenin." 

UPDATE: A sign Gaza isn't the main front now?

Israel has agreed to a temporary pause of some military operations in the Gaza Strip to enable a polio vaccination campaign there, a senior State Department official said.

UPDATE: Hezbollah was hammered with apparent pager bombs. Israeli intelligence will now profile men with one hand visiting Israel.

UPDATE: Hezbollah went to Plan B with walkie-talkies. Are they exploding, too? Tip to Instapundit.

UPDATE: After throwing Hezbollah command and control into chaos, this makes sense:

Israeli sources reported on September 19 that Israeli officials are deciding whether the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will conduct an offensive into Lebanon. Hezbollah will almost certainly not cease rocket fire into northern Israel, which will necessitate an Israeli operation if Israel hopes to achieve its stated objectives in northern Israel.

Although in general it has made sense for a long time. Notwithstanding Hezbollah bravado:

Hezbollah is ready and waiting for the IDF to invade its territory, leader Hassan Nasrallah dared Israel in a speech broadcast on Thursday. “Israel’s foolish Northern Command leader talks about a security zone inside Lebanese territory – we are waiting for you to enter Lebanese territory,” he said. “We are waiting for your tanks, and we will see this as a historic opportunity.” His speech was originally planned to go live on Wednesday but the live-stream was cut off by a second string of exploding devices in 24 hours.

Hezbollah knows that after the October 7, 2023 Hamas murder and rape invasion, Israel isn't going to emphasize nuance if it goes north. And as the article notes, it would have made sense to time an invasion to take care of Hezbollah business with the disruption caused by the pager attack. Perhaps Israel has another operation in their pocket.

UPDATE: Hmmm:

Israeli jets carried out a strike Friday targeting a building in Beirut's southern suburbs, the main stronghold of Iran-backed Hezbollah, killing and wounding several people and causing considerable damage, according to witnesses and media reports.

And:

Israeli warplanes, under the direction of Israel Defense Force intelligence and Northern Command, struck around 100 rocket launchers and other Hezbollah infrastructure in Lebanon, the Israeli Air Force and IDF said Friday.

Is this a subliminal start to the war, trying to do as much damage before unambiguously beginning a drive north that will prompt Hezbollah to attempt to order mass rocket attacks on Israeli bases and civilians?

Remember, Iron Dome can't stop the rain.

UPDATE: Fighting seems to be escalating between Israel and Iran-sponsored Hezbollah in Lebanon. 

Does this telegraph approaching open warfare or is this chest-beating and flinging poo to intimidate the other side?

UPDATE: Hmmm:

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducted a large-scale airstrike campaign across Lebanon on September 21 and 22. The IDF announced on September 21 that it targeted over 400 rocket launchers, thousands of rocket barrels, and other military infrastructure in at least two waves of airstrikes across southern Lebanon. An Israeli military correspondent reported that the strikes targeted short- and medium- range rocket launchers within firing range of Haifa and other northern Israeli towns.

Does Israel think strikes will compel Hezbollah to withdraw north of the Litani River?

Or is Israel in a subliminal shaping operation? That is, is Israel ramping up preparations to launch a ground invasion (a long-term raid, really) using escalated tensions as cover? I recall that America used an elevated strike pace supposedly enforcing the no-fly zone over Iraq to shape the battlefield for Operation Iraqi Freedom for many months. Is this what we are seeing?

UPDATE: More and expanded strikes:

The military said it was expanding the airstrikes to include areas of the valley along Lebanon’s eastern border with Syria. Hezbollah has long had an established presence in the valley, and it is where the group was founded in 1982 with the help of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards.

Interesting that Israel is reaching up to the Bekaa Valley, which I see as the end point of a potential Israeli raid-in-force. 

Is the civilian casualty claim true? Hard to say. But if true, we all know Hezbollah uses human shields by putting their military targets next to civilians.

Hezbollah is shooting back but it isn't a large-scale barrage that has been their ultimate threat.

UPDATE: We're getting close to agreement on this being the war:

A Hezbollah leader declared an “open-ended battle” was underway as both sides appeared to be spiraling closer toward all-out war.

If that leader is correct, how long will Hezbollah let Israel have a free hand in pounding Hezbollah rocket and missile assets? 

I started this post recognizing the downgrading of the Hamas front. It seems Israel is on the cusp of making the Hezbollah front the main effort in a serious manner.

Unless Hezbollah backs down and retreats north. Will it? Can it? Would Iran allow it?

UPDATE: This post started in recognition that Hezbollah was rising above Hamas as the primary threat. Since then the shift has become more apparent. It is shifting faster:

Israel set new war objectives for Lebanon on September 16. Accomplishing these objectives would require the IDF to undertake a second major military campaign in Lebanon as part of the October 7 War. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced on September 16 that returning Israeli citizens to their homes in northern Israel would be a new Israeli war aim as part of the October 7 War.

The scope of Israeli strikes in Lebanon against Hezbollah targets illustrates this:

But until Israeli ground troops move north into Lebanon, I won't start a new post to mark the big shift to a new phase of the war.

UPDATE: Sh*t got real:

The U.S. asked Israel over the weekend to take steps to ensure the safety of Americans in Lebanon if the U.S. were to evacuate its citizens as fighting escalates between Israel and Hezbollah, two Israeli official and one U.S. official told Axios.

UPDATE: Additional thoughts on Israel's expanding assault on Hezbollah.  

UPDATE: Wrecking Hezbollah command and control would certainly buy time to destroy rocket and missile sites from the air, and if necessary move in troops to capture the launching sites:

The Israeli military said on Tuesday it killed Hezbollah's rocket chief in a "targeted" strike on a Beirut suburb.

Also, I assume the Lebanese Health Ministry is no more trustworthy on civilian casualties than the Gaza ministry run by Hamas. 

UPDATE: When a terror group sends a symbolic message rather than launch what they have to kill as many civilians as possible, you know they fear a full-scale war with Israel:

Israel intercepted a missile fired by Hezbollah near Tel Aviv on Wednesday, an unprecedented attack by the militant group that reached deep into the country’s commercial heartlands and marked a new escalatory step in the conflict between the two sides.

To me this says Israel has time to keep hitting Hezbollah targets with fires before it must send troops in to stand on the ground of the rocket- and missile-launching sites. 

UPDATE: Sh*t got real:

Israel's military chief told troops to prepare for a possible ground offensive in Lebanon as heavy Israeli airstrikes continued for a third day and militants targeted the cities of Tel Aviv and Eilat.

Either a bluff to get Hezbollah to withdraw north of the Litani River or really getting ready to invade in what I assume will be a large, lengthy raid to tear up Hezbollah infrastructure all the way to the Bekaa Valley. 

UPDATE: Bluff or telegraphing?

Dimming hopes for a cease-fire, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Thursday that Israel plans to continue striking Hezbollah “with full force” and will not stop until all of its goals are achieved.

If Hezbollah stopped firing rockets at Israel and evacuated southern Lebanon as the UN supposedly insists on, there's be a ceasefire. 

UPDATE: As long as Hezbollah is sending signals, Israel seems determined to destroy as much from the air as possible while it has the luxury:

The Israeli Defense Forces launched a strike on Iran's Hezbollah headquarters in Beirut Friday with a target of eliminating the group's leader, Hassan Nasrallah. 

No word on results.

UPDATE: More on Israel's efforts. Israel exploited the pager and walkie-talkie attacks to hit Hezbollah leadership meeting in person. And exploited that confusion to mount an aerial attack deep into Hezbollah-occupied Lebanon territory to degrade Hezbollah's rocket and missile force (and I assume other targets). 

So far, Hezbollah has not responded by unleashing its arsenal on Israeli civilians with a mass attack. Does that mean Hezbollah is incapable of doing that? Or does it mean that so far Hezbollah would rather endure air attacks than give Israel a reason to send in ground troops?

UPDATE: Huh: 

Israel’s prime minister has warned Iran there was “nowhere in the Middle East” that Israel could not strike after troops were ordered to prepare for an invasion of Lebanon.

Will Iran stand down and let Israel destroy Hezbollah lest Israel go for the jugular in Iran?

Hezbollah might need to take the spear to let Iran make the final dash to nukes. 

UPDATE: Television news on September 30th states Israeli troop have entered Lebanon. If I had to guess, I'd say troops are cutting lanes through border obstacles and essentially creating bridgeheads inside Lebanon to pass mechanized forces through.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm now on Substack, with The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Is Maneuver Dead?

Do long-range precision fires and persistent battlefield surveillance make ground maneuver impossible?

Well, that's certainly a future:

The Army may need to rethink its traditional emphasis on maneuver warfare in the face of new weapons and other technology that will make tomorrow’s wars “increasingly lethal,” the service’s Training and Doctrine Command says in a new report. ...

Part of the shift is due to the increasing importance of fires, a term most frequently associated with the use of indirect fire like artillery, rockets, and missiles, but which may also refer to drones and other assets. These weapons will “be the center of gravity, making protection a priority and maneuver difficult,” according to the report. 

These changes to the battlefield “may require a reassessment of our approach to maneuver, fires, and protection,” the report added.

Maybe. I've certainly asked that question:

Are fires and and surveillance now dominant over maneuver on the battlefield with precision and persistence added, respectively, to the equation?

And I can go back eight years:

The old infantry phalanxes were rectangles of men who fought shoulder-to-shoulder in an interlocking formation that pressed into an enemy phalanx to slash at the forward edges and ultimately shove the enemy formation back until it lost cohesion and could not stand it's ground in the "push of shields."

Could we eventually see a joint force in a theater function as a giant phalanx of swarming robots with persistent surveillance and long range firepower called in to support the battle in mortal combat with an enemy theater-wide phalanx?

Lanchester's Square attrition models might rule the battles, with the winner being the last one with functioning robots surviving on the battlefield.

If so, our strategy of using quality to overcome quantity will no longer work if our enemies have qualitatively equivalent robot swarms directed with an equivalent command and control system with an equivalent surveillance network.

Will we then have wars of attrition based on robots rather than men locked in combat? 

I mentioned the UAV aspect of such a phalanx, too. 

It is a future. But I don't assume this is our future. Ukraine's recent surprise incursion into Russia was not a war-winner, but it showed possibilities. But if maneuver faces a bleak future, something will be conceived in equipment or tactics that helps break the phalanx--again. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: I'm now on Substack, with The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

First Line of Missile Defense

American F-22s deployed to CENTCOM. They are potentially the first line of missile defense above the enemy launch sites.

Interesting:

Air Force F-22 Raptors are now in the Middle East “to address threats posed by Iran and Iranian-backed groups” against Israel and American troops in the region, U.S. Central Command announced Aug. 8. 

In my view--and not only my view, of course--of a layered anti-missile defense in depth, these planes are the first line that can, while inside enemy territory, shoot down ballistic missiles while they are launched and slowly building up a head of steam in their ballistic path.

F-35s could do the same or actually bomb the launch sites. Which is useful if the enemy launches sequentially rather than in a single pulse.

And for the cheaper drones? While not something that can be operating in enemy air space, guided rocket trucks could push the defensive belt forward quite a bit.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: I'm now on Substack, with The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

The Winter War of 2022 Detours into Kursk

The Kursk Kerfuffle has excited observers over the last week. Just how large is it? What is its objective? Does Ukraine have reserves to carry it out?

Russia continues to attack inside Ukraine. But the big news is Ukraine seizing the local initiative inside Russia's Kursk province.

Initially Ukraine's attack begun last week seemed like a very well planned and executed raid by a reinforced battalion task force. Then reports of multiple brigades involved popped up. And then talk of enough brigades for a couple Ukrainian corps (which are large divisions from an American perspective) popped up. The most recent assessment I heard is that it was a brigade operation supported by elements of three other brigades. This story identifies the likely brigade:

Analysts said the vehicles involved, including U.S.-supplied Stryker armored vehicles, pointed to the 22nd Mechanized Brigade -- one of Ukraine’s more battle-hardened units -- as leading the charge.

ISW reports Russia is rushing troops to the area but they are atomized, under-strength formations that lack proper command structure to organize their fight.

But the fog of war is still thick.

First of all, it isn't driving on Moscow. Put away your World War II porn. Even if Ukraine had a force as large as their summer 2023 counteroffensive, such an advance would culminate just from the need to detach units from the advance to protect the flanks and supply lines of the troops advancing toward Moscow.

Second, if Russia ever uses nukes, that would be the reason to do it. Although you can never tell if using tactical nukes on Ukrainian troops inside Russia would freak Russians with power out so much that they overthrow Putin and end the war.

So what is it? 

A spoiling attack to end Russia's threat to launch a large offensive this year?

A thunder run to tear up Russian infrastructure and inflict damage on a major part of the Russian army and its shake its morale?

A Trenton and Princeton operation to bolster the morale of Ukrainian troops with a decisive if smallish victory before pulling back to positions along the border--possibly with a buffer zone inside Russia?

An effort to roll up Russian units on the border to gain a long buffer zone inside Russia and hammer Russian troop morale?

An effort to divert troops from Russia's dangerous Avdiivka salient?

One suggestion is that it is for "Trump-proofing" Ukraine by providing Ukraine with a bargaining chip to trade to Russia for some of Ukraine's land back in compelled negotiations. If so, Ukraine may be taking a needless risk. Leaders of our allies seem needlessly panicked about alleged Republican isolationism. They should keep calm and carry on: 

Republican reluctance to fund Ukraine is understandable given the incompetence of the Biden Administration so far in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict and how obstinately it has refused to secure the border with Mexico.

Decisions made in panic mode can be bad ones. If this motivation is true, Ukraine may have simply stuck their hand in a hornet's nest to allow Putin to rally Russian troops to expel the so-called invaders. 

I also heard that the Ukrainians simply attacked a weak point in the Russian defenses. If so, it makes talk of geographical objectives inside Russia a distraction. Ukraine just wanted a win. Wherever they could get it. But is it a raid to inflict losses on the Russians or intended to capture and hold land?

It's very unclear to me. I doubt it is a large operation. But if this is big and intended to be lasting, that certainly makes up for the early war lack of a strategic reserve to strike back after Russia culminated in late summer 2022:

Ukraine, if it has the reserves, could rip Russia's army a new a-hole. Ukraine is attacking on the Kherson front. Let us hope that we don't have a replay of this tragic conversation in 1940:

Churchill asked General Gamelin, "Where is the strategic reserve?" which had saved Paris in the First World War. "There is none", Gamelin replied. 

The Ukrainians have been smart this war. I cannot believe that Ukraine has not built a strategic reserve. Even at the price of asking outmanned and outgunned Ukrainian troops to desperately hold the line in the Donbas.

As it turned out, Ukraine had no strategic reserve when Russia culminated in fall 2022. Four Ukrainian brigades did make a big advance in Kharkiv; and other units later compelled the Russians to pull back across the Dnipro River on the Kherson front. But nothing decisive was achieved. And by the time Ukraine did have such a reserve in summer 2023, it was too late. Russia had recovered and dug in.

Has Ukraine managed to accumulate a strategic reserve by taking risks on the front that has allowed Russia to grind forward? That would be good. I've long wanted a big counter-attack to eliminate Russia's Avdiivka salient. It's at least an option. Or did Ukraine make a bad decision in a panic that needlessly exposes its few reserves?

Or maybe Ukraine is making the best decision it can with an American government that it rightly believes will abandon it. They've seen Afghanistan. They may remember our premature departure from Iraq in 2011 and not be overly reassured by our return in 2014. And they may have read about South Vietnam. I don't see that. But I could be wrong.

But Ukraine's operation sure caught my attention. And as ISW notes, it may have really caught the attention of the Russians who may decide they must defend their ill-manned border north of the main fronts to prevent Ukraine from carrying out a similar operation in the future. That will put further strains on Russia's ability to mass forces inside Ukraine.

UPDATE (Monday): I don't know why I'm seeing talk of Ukraine "invading" Russia. This is much smaller than Russia's "special military operation" inside Ukraine so it barely counts, right?

UPDATE (Monday): Well, he also ordered the capture of Kyiv in three days and all of Ukraine in three weeks, so ... :

"The main task of the Ministry of Defence is now to drive the enemy out of our territories and ensure reliable border security," Putin said when opening a meeting on the crisis, Russian news agencies reported.

Oddly enough, that's been Ukraine's hope since February 2014. 

UPDATE (Tuesday): That's good:

Ukraine said on Monday it had not seen any sign of a buildup of Belarusian forces near their border, contradicting a statement from Minsk that it had sent more troops to the area.

UPDATE (Wednesday): So a buffer zone to be given up when the Russians no longer fire at them?

Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi said the cross-border operation was aimed at protecting Ukrainian land from long-range strikes launched from Kursk.

I don't assume this is a definitive statement of the objective. 

UPDATE (Wednesday): Ukraine's push into Russia near Kursk looks like what I hoped the Ukrainian summer 2023 counteroffensive could have achieved--if it had taken place in the fall of 2022:

[A German former general writing about the World War II eastern front] said that it was always better to counter-attack Russian advances quickly with whatever could be scraped together. Waiting to gather forces just gave the Russians time to dig in. Delay was asking for defeat. He was talking about tactical operations. But if you look at the 1943 German Kursk offensive you see the same thing on a larger scale. Apparently little has changed in 80 years.

UPDATE (Thursday): Ukraine's deep drone strike campaign continues:

Ukrainian drones targeted four Russian airfields Wednesday in the largest such attack of the war, as Kyiv’s troops advance further into Russia following their surprise cross-border incursion that has left the Kremlin embarrassed and scrambling.  

Also, it seems like Ukraine's ground advance on the Kursk front is slowing down. Whether it's from Russian resistance or the limits of what a single reinforced brigade can do, I do not know.

UPDATE (Thursday): Hmmm:

Despite Russia pouring in reinforcements to counter the now eight-day-old invasion of Kursk, Ukraine is continuing to try and expand its footprint there, pushing to the north and west.

Just what objective is worth driving deeper into Russia? And how many brigades does Ukraine have in reserve?

On the other hand, if Ukraine was planning to end what is basically a raid, it would want Russian troops in a static, defensive posture while Ukraine pulls back to fortifications either inside Ukraine or just inside Russia.

UPDATE (Friday): The objective is still unclear and Ukraine's strength is uncertain: "Estimates of the number of troops operating there range from 5,000 to 12,000."

UPDATE (Friday): Endorsed:

Even in the boldness of the current incursion, the Ukrainians must be ready to accept when the spread of their military forces has culminated. They will inevitably reach a point where, if they don’t shift to the defensive—either in Kursk or back in Ukraine—they risk catastrophic defeat in detail.

UPDATE (Saturday): Ukraine pulled back from either a raid or an attempt to test other Russian defenses:

The Washington Post reported on August 15 that Ukrainian personnel who participated in cross-border assaults into Belgorod Oblast stated that Ukrainian groups conducted mechanized assaults near the Kolotilovka border checkpoint (on the international border northwest of Belgorod City) on August 11 and advanced up to roughly 10 kilometers in the area.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: I'm now on Substack, with The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

I started regular The Dignified Rant: Evolved posting on Substack. Please subscribe. I will continue posting here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022.

Ah, we've gotten to the point of poverty and oppression where Venezuela under Maduro isn't "true socialism."  Socialist countries built on looting what free markets created always start out promising.

So all those Arabs are cool with letting Persian Iran fight Israel to the last Arab? "The commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has threatened Israel with a broad counterstrike from allied militias in the region." Israel will make them pay.

Putin's Nuke Monkey strayed from his usual mass murder talk: "Former Kremlin leader Dmitry Medvedev issued threats on Sunday to former Russian political prisoners who were released into exile as part of a prisoner exchange with the West." How conservatives forgot why we must defeat Russia escapes me. 

I'd rather Germany build the capacity to capture Kaliningrad, but sure: "The Philippines and Germany agreed a new defense deal Sunday as Manila seeks to bolster its diplomatic support to counter Beijing’s vast maritime claims in the South China Sea."

Guam to get its first Virginia-class nuclear-powered attack submarine. This class will eventually replace the five Los Angeles-class boats that have been home-ported there.

Russia has to pay for its war on its own. And while China denies it, China sells munitions to Russia. I think China refused when it seemed like Ukraine would win. After Ukraine's 2023 counteroffensive failed, China wants to hedge its bets with military aid. Western failure to help Ukraine win has consequences.

Via Instapundit, does Mexico have any level of control in northern Mexico? "The Mexican army acknowledged for the first time Friday that some of its soldiers have been killed by bomb-dropping drones operated by drug cartels." Paging General Pershing. I mean, eventually I'll be right ...

Even the "most advanced air wing" in the Navy won't do much from a burning--or fleeing--hulk. Although it is nice to see the capabilities of the AIM-54 Phoenix restored by the AIM-174B air-to-air missile.

Sh*t got real: "A published US Army intel analysis makes the key observation that any future 'Large Scale Combat Operation' with either Russia or China is expected to happen in either the European or Pacific theater, areas requiring a massive, secure and extended logistical effort." Make it so. Okay Navy?

Sh*t got real: "Buoyed by an increase in recruiting, the Army will expand its basic combat training in what its leaders hope reflects a turning point as it prepares to meet the challenges of future wars." Fort Wood is one of two bases that will get additional basic training companies. Ah, the Demons of E-3-10!

The U.S. wants "more M109A7 Self-Propelled Howitzers (SPH) and M992A3 Ammunition Carriers[.]" The God of War is pleased. 

Conveniently near the South China Sea: "Northern Australia played host to two major multilateral military exercises in July — and the U.S. Marine Corps was in the thick of the action for both." It was a long journey for the Marines.

Another long journey: "The Pentagon’s joint program office for the missile defense of Guam is waiting on fiscal 2024 funding to be reprogrammed from elsewhere in the budget to help pay for its efforts to build an architecture to defend the key U.S. territory in the Pacific." Very long.

The "coup" is disbelieving fraudulent election results: "Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro told military brass and soldiers yesterday that his government is 'pulverizing an attempted coup.'" Nobody will help Venezuelans. Only the people of Venezuela can save themselves. Will troops shoot and kill civilians?

The host is dying but the parasite won't be denied: "Pakistan's jailed former prime minister, Imran Khan, who blames the military for his ouster and 12-month-old imprisonment on what he calls trumped-up charges, said on Sunday it would be 'foolish' not to have 'excellent' relations with the army."

SPOILER ALERT: The shoal is indisputably in the Philippines' EEZ: "China's coast guard said it was monitoring Philippine patrol and fishing vessels that have gathered around the contested Sabina Shoal, citing China's 'indisputable sovereignty' over the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea."

Say, about that "siege" of Gaza: "Israel Defense Forces discovered a large tunnel that is big enough to allow vehicles to pass through on the border between Gaza and Egypt, officials said Sunday." Yeah, Israel isn't giving up that border. 

I respect CDR Salamander and have linked to him a number of times. And when he defends the value of our carriers against critics by citing Navy deployments in the current Middle East crises, I agree with him. But he's really defending the power projection role. The sea control role is the problem and weakness.

Last week I wondered how we convinced Russia not to further arm the Houthi. Is this our side of a bargain?

That seems like a big deal: "Myanmar’s military regime acknowledged Monday it had lost communications with the commanders of a strategically important army headquarters in the northeast, adding credence to a militia group’s claims it had captured the base."

If we ever have to attack Russian ground forces given half a year to prepare, we'll need more: "On Thursday, the Army test-fired a Mine Clearing Line Charge from a specially rigged M113 personnel carrier."

I'm old enough to remember being excited about that brand new carrier, first of its class: "The USS Nimitz (CVN-68), the U.S. Navy's oldest in-service aircraft carrier, is preparing for one of its final deployments before decommissioning in 2026."

Axis of Weasels: "A Yemeni drone specialist who had traveled to Iraq to train other Iranian-backed fighters was among those killed in a U.S. airstrike near Baghdad last week[.]" Weasel Prime should be in our cross hairs. But too many in our government think the mullahs are our friend.

Released rather than turned over for prosecution? "[The UN ended its investigation of Israeli allegations that UNRWA] in Gaza, participated in the Oct. 7 Hamas invasion of southern Israel after determining that nine of 19 accused 'may have been involved in the attack. The nine have been fired [per the UN.]"

India isn't spending enough on defense to cope with China while nuclear-armed Pakistan nips at its ankles.

Ukraine's strategic warfare campaign inside Russia. 

Ukraine's Black Sea War.

Anti-immigrant feelings--in South Africa.

The Air Force will link its aircraft to the DAF Battle Network. Good. Options expand when sensors and shooters are separate.

Another Iran-sponsored attack on America: "The Iraqi security official told Al-Ain News that five missiles launched by armed groups supported by Iran targeted Ain Al-Asad airbase, where the international coalition forces led by the United States are stationed." 

Right back at you, Ivan: "A top Russian official told Ukraine on Tuesday that the longer it waited to enter peace talks, the tougher the terms would be for its people."

Ah, mullah-run Iran: "A Pakistani national with purported ties to Iran was arrested last month on charges he plotted to assassinate former President Donald Trump and multiple other public officials[.]" We'd destroy Iran's navy if we were a serious country. But no. Tip to Instapundit. 

I'd say Palestinians need to change and reject Hamas, but the world is changing to accept Hamas: "Hamas considers these dead civilians as involuntary martyrs to the cause and continues to show a callous disregard for the many Palestinian civilians killed as Hamas pursues its own goals."

Corruption really undermined China's ability to invade Taiwan or fight for any duration. Lack of spare parts and inoperable missiles are highlights. The new car smell was misleading. And Xi did not know. But it might be good enough for CCP work. China's problems are no reason to ignore our problems.

Good: "The U.S. and Australia announced new agreements on basing and building weapons together Tuesday, part of an attempt to cement the Biden administration’s strategy in the region." More here. It includes the beginning of U.S. Army prepositioning of equipment and materiel.

America can't let its military or allies run out of ammunition. Roger that. 

Those seem like obvious objectives for a separate Space Force: "US Space Command’s top priorities for fiscal 2027 include 'space fires' to enable 'space superiority,' and 'enhanced battlespace awareness' capabilities, according to its top officer, Gen. Stephen Whiting." I will patiently await SMOD.

The Army will complete its air and missile defense strategy by October 2025. Actual air and missile defenses to follow?

At least Turkey hasn't yet submitted a formal bid to join Hamas' genocidal war against Israel: "Turkey on Wednesday formally submitted its bid to join South Africa's genocide case against Israel over the Gaza war at the International Court of Justice (ICJ)[.]"

Fail Britannia.

Israel caused China to fail in its effort to make Hamas the leader of the Palestinians? Which would have strengthened Iran. Fascinating complements to America's weird efforts to crown the Palestinians the Queen of the Victim Prom and elevate Iran's regional role.

America is still being urged to pivot to Asia and away from Europe and the Middle East to protect Taiwan. The endless pivot to nowhere can't continue without dismissing the need to defend Taiwan. That said, obviously we shouldn't have a "no retreat" policy that wins or loses a war with China at Taiwan.

More American bombers to deploy to Australia: "The U.S. is finalizing an agreement to increase its aircraft presence, particularly its bombers, in Australia, part of a raft of developments the two countries discussed during the U.S.-Australia Ministerial Consultations on Aug. 6."

Huh? "Preparing to help defend Israel from attacks by Iran, the Houthi rebels, and the Lebanese Hezbollah, the U.S. Navy is deploying a large number of warships around the Middle East. The problem is that these deployments are incompatible with the effective deterrence of China." Um, cutting off its oil?

Sh*t got real: "Some 'single' soldiers who ship out to South Korea will now need to spend two years on the peninsula rather than one, the Army said in a recent force-wide message."

When futurists write they often insist that while the nature of war doesn't change, the character of war--how it is fought--does. True enough. But so often their future sure seems to slide easily into the nature of war. Where bad leadership doesn't count. It does. Really. I have a post scheduled on the article discussed.

Russia's Orlan-10 drone lives on despite sanctions and age.

Via Instapundit, is California, the fifth largest economy if a country, going broke? Dunno. But its financial problems are interesting when you consider that a comparable economy--Britain's--also has the burden of $80 billion defense spending, too. Or maybe Britain is in worse financial condition. Just interesting to me.

Britain: We don't need a Constitution to protect the rights of citizens. We have tradition, you upstart colonials! Also Britain. Now it only has a long-standing tradition of existence. For now.

A freedom of navigation operation in the South China Sea with American, Japanese, Australian, and Philippines warships.

Oh? "Surrounded by deep waters east and west and weak neighbors north and south, America is largely invulnerable to attack." Only because we work at it. We are largely invulnerable because we prevent enemies from mobilizing the resources of Eurasia. Remember when Europe wasn't friendly?

As long as manned carrier aircraft aren't obsolete, large reusable drones for carriers are fine. And may extend a carrier's reach to increase their survivability.

A three-hour tour. In orbit. Tip to Instapundit. 

Until Gaza: "The U.S. Army, every few years, would break out a series of pontoons and boats and practice creating a pier where none existed before to land vehicles and cargo. It usually went pretty well, and it almost never generated any attention." But did political considerations override operating standards?

Anti-access/area denial: "In June, Romania announced an estimated $2.7 billion expansion and modernization project at [Mihail Kogalniceanu Air Base] that includes construction of a new runway, a guard tower and additional hangars to house existing and future equipment." A Black Sea Turkey Shoot.

Huh: "The Houthi forces who have been attacking shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden lack a center of gravity, making for deterrence by U.S and partner forces difficult, the commander of U.S. naval forces in the Middle East said in a webinar." Really? Don't deter! And of course they have a center of gravity.

That's a good sign despite Iranian influence: "Five individuals were arrested in connection with a rocket attack on an air base in western Iraq earlier this week that injured four U.S. troops and a defense contractor, the Pentagon confirmed Thursday." Iran's influence is a reason to fight harder--not retreat.

The war on Russia's trucks: "The Ukrainian war on Russian supply trucks continues. NATO supplies area-attack missiles to attack lots where Russian trucks are parked. Ukrainian partisans and civilians rarely miss an opportunity to sabotage Russian trucks."

#WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings: "Since the Cold War began 75 years ago and ended 23 years ago, Russian disinformation efforts have sought to portray NATO as an evil and duplicitous plot against Russia." That's working out just swell. 

When people worry about a full-scale war between Iran and Israel, what do they mean? They lack a common border so any war is via the air, infiltration, proxies, or abroad in third countries or international waters.

An additional American military aid package for Ukraine. Good. But still no additional armored combat vehicles.

Mission accomplished! "Russia has already lost in Ukraine." Not so fast, sparky. Yes, Russia's military reputation is as tattered as its military. And NATO is alerted. But Ukraine can still lose, too. And if Ukraine loses, Russia will recover faster.

Huh: "U.S. forces have launched roughly 800 missiles and seven rounds of air strikes against the Iran-backed Houthi rebels that have controlled Yemen since November in what has become the most sustained military campaign by American forces since the anti-ISIS air war[.]" Sustained? Prolonged? Whatever.

About that center of gravity the Houthi supposedly lack: "Speaking at a virtual event on Wednesday, Vice Adm. George Wikoff, commander of Naval Forces Central Command, said the Houthis are well armed and have strong and consistent supply lines into Iran, 'and are looking for a reason to use it.'"

The world is going from flinging panties at USVs to flinging money at them: "The uncrewed surface vessel (USV) market is on track for explosive growth, with projections indicating it will reach $2.5bn by 2034." I say they aren't silver bullets, but part of a complete breakfast!

The enemy of my enemy is my friend: "Crew of Philippine and Vietnamese vessels blasted a boat with water cannon and simulated a search and rescue on Friday, in the first such joint exercises between coast guards of two countries that have faced off with Beijing in the South China Sea."

I doubt this is a diversion for the Kursk operation: "Ukrainian special forces conducted an amphibious raid on the Russian-occupied Kinburn Spit in the Black Sea, killing about 30 Russian soldiers and destroying six armored vehicles, Ukraine's military intelligence said on August 9." Just business as usual.

The Houthi have switched to suicide USVs. China only pays a quarter of the elevated insurance rates of other civilian ships transiting the area.

Making battlefield mistakes at the speed of AI.

This time for sure for intervention in Haiti! "Parts of Port-au-Prince are showing signs of life again: On the once-desolate Boulevard Toussaint Louverture, a young couple could be seen hugging one recent afternoon. Down the street, a group of men danced as Bob Marley’s 'One Love' came on the radio."

I assume the objective is range rather than speed: "The U.S. Army is slated to begin evaluating a hypervelocity projectile for the service’s artillery systems in 2025 ... as a potential munition for eliminating cheaper targets, rather than using high-end missiles for the same mission[.]"

No worries. The fire is global and will melt the Arctic: "U.S. Coast Guard presence in the Arctic has taken another hit. Icebreaker Healy suffered an engineering compartment fire at the end of July during its annual summer Arctic patrol."

As we watch the Houthi target practice in the Red Sea continue, Yemen's civil war is unresolved and jihadis still have sanctuary in Yemen territory. 

This alarms Europe--not intimidates it: "Russia planned a series of assassinations and attacks on facilities involved with manufacturing weapons and munitions for Ukrainian forces. Americans and European intelligence nations detected these plans and did so early enough to disrupt Russian efforts[.]"

Russian vehicle losses force Russia to improvise. If they work, they work.  

As war between Iran and Israel in Lebanon where Iran's proxy Hezbollah is dug in and prepared to bombard Israel looms, this 2008 U.S. Army Combined Arms Center paper on the 2006 war might be of interest.

Don't Be the Poor Dumb Bastard

Nobody wins a war by dying for their country. Make the enemy die for their country (or cause).

Israel wants to avoid paying with blood for first contact with the enemy:

When Israeli armored personnel carriers roll into combat zones in Gaza, at times they are missing a traditionally key feature: personnel.

That’s because for months now in the Gaza conflict, the Israel Defense Forces have reportedly been using and iterating on unmanned versions of multiple vehicles as technology has improved enough to put the platforms into combat situations while keeping more soldier out of harm’s way.

This objective was my reason for writing an article for Infantry magazine advocating a partially manned infantry fighting vehicle (IFV) in the advance to contact. I didn't want to risk infantry when they are "spam in a can" before they deploy and become hunters. Although Israel may just be throwing armored chum in the water to draw enemy fire. Which is a much less complex mission.

My proposal kept the crew in the IFV to fight and used reachback for the operators of remote weapons stations added to the IFV for additional firepower. Maybe we're getting closer to purely remotely operated vehicles.

As long as we have a robust and secure battlefield internet. And don't concentrate all the remote operators in one tent, of course.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: I'm now on Substack, with The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Honey, I Shrunk the Air Force

Drones flying low over the battlefields in large numbers have moved from reconnaissance and targeting to direct strikes and now to fighting other aerial drones. The progression is remarkably similar to manned aircraft. I assume drone capabilities will continue along that path.

The next step is putting weapons on drones to shoot down other drones:

Ukraine has developed a drone that can intercept and destroy other drones. This is achieved using FPV (First Person Viewing) operated drones to detect the enemy drone and destroy it by colliding with it.

Huh, anti-air drones, as I advocated in Army magazine six years ago. Although I didn't consider ramming as the air defense drone's weapon, preferring reusable drones. Ramming may just be an expedient until weapons are mounted. Although maybe ramming will be the most cost-effective means, as FPV suicide drones are for ground attack.

Seriously, how long before drones lead to the creation of miniature versions of air forces?

Drones in all the domains will eventually just be one more weapon in a combined arms effort. 

Indeed, the drones might fight low-level air campaigns in the "brown skies" just above forward combat units that look like "blue sky" Air Force campaigns with specialty drones for ground attack, recon, electronic warfare, intercepting enemy drones or protecting friendly drones, and maybe aerial refueling. You might even have recovery drones to pick up downed UAVs.

Funny enough, the Air Force will seemingly evolve into large, expensive drone force as pilots become optional and then rare. And then gone. Maybe then the Air Force will unify with whatever Army drone branch there is to use the disposable brown sky drones to scout for and work with the expensive blue sky drones that stay well away from ground-based air defenses.

The Air Force traditionally has an "Aim High" focus. Somebody needs to Aim Low, too.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: I'm now on Substack, with The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

That's One Expensive Plane Ferry

When 100,000 tons of sovereign American territory isn't enough, land bases beckon.

Navy planes on land, eh?

About a dozen F/A-18 fighter jets from the Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier have flown to a military base in the Middle East, as part of the Pentagon’s effort to help defend Israel from possible attacks by Iran and its proxies and to safeguard U.S. troops, according to a U.S. official.

Navy mini-AWACS aircraft are part of the deployment.

Defenders of carriers (and I'm a defender with caveats) like to say that carriers eliminate the need for land air bases. At best they reduce the need. As the calls for more carriers to keep carriers forward deployed, I will ask again why, in the absence of an available carrier, the Navy can't employ land-based aircraft squadrons and wings without carriers?

Sure, nobody can deny America the use of our carrier planes. But gaining support sufficient to allow use of allied air bases is surely both valuable for the mission and a good indication we have support. With land bases Navy planes can deploy without an expensive carrier ferrying the planes.

And at least land bases can't be sunk. Runways can be repaired much faster than damaged carriers can be.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: I'm now on Substack, with The Dignified Rant: Evolved.