A rumor of broader war spreads in the Middle East as Iran feels compelled to protect their proxy Hamas.
Is this the reason for the delay in Iran's telegraphed strikes on Israel?
Iran is likely trying to expand divisions within Israel and between Israel and the United States ahead of a possible Iranian drone and missile attack. Three anonymous senior Iranian officials speaking to Reuters on August 13 claimed that Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah would refrain from attacking Israel if it reached a ceasefire-hostage agreement with Hamas.We'll see. But Iran isn't the only actor.
Secretary Austin reiterated the United States' commitment to take every possible step to defend Israel and noted the strengthening of U.S. military force posture and capabilities throughout the Middle East in light of escalating regional tensions. Reinforcing this commitment, Secretary Austin has ordered the USS ABRAHAM LINCOLN Carrier Strike Group, equipped with F-35C fighters, to accelerate its transit to the Central Command area of responsibility, adding to the capabilities already provided by the USS THEODORE ROOSEVELT Carrier Strike Group.
Additionally, the Secretary has ordered the USS Georgia (SSGN 729) guided missile submarine to the Central Command region.
Iran wants to support their proxies. But America might really disapprove in a cruise missile barrage sort of way. That's one problem with client groups (or states).
And sure, that dynamic applies to America, too. Sometimes they drag you into war rather than insulate you from war.
If Hezbollah and Iran
seriously enter this war, a new phase of the Last Hamas War begins. Much as in 2006
when the original Hamas fight was forgotten when the Hezbollah front
opened.
Speaking of that 2006 Hezbollah front:
Israeli reliance on poorly understood and controversial Effects-Based Operations (EBO) and Systemic Operational Design (SOD) warfighting theories, and a nearly singular dependence on air power, were root causes of Israeli problems. Additionally, after years of counterinsurgency (COIN) operations in the Gaza Strip and West Bank territories, IDF ground forces were tactically unprepared and untrained to fight against a determined Hezbollah force that conducted what was, in many ways, a conventional, fixed-position defense.
That was basically my view at the time. Let's hope Israel moved on from air power tunnel vision. I think math rules out an air-only campaign, but you never know what political pressures force leadership to believe.
We've been easing into this new phase for a while now. I think I'll call that transition right now. Even if shooting doesn't start between when I wrote this Wednesday morning and when it publishes Thursday. The trend is strong enough.
UPDATE: Is Iran having second thoughts about a day of missile rage?
"Currently, Iran even sees a chance in the Doha negotiations to gain more by seemingly delaying or suspending their response. The Iranians are essentially on a path of lowering expectations. A total war, which could ultimately be chaotic, could create severe problems for them with a faltering economy and potentially collapse it, as well as threats to the regime itself," Rabi added.
Huh.
UPDATE: Is this a sign that Israel is prepared to shift gears to wreck Hezbollah in southern Lebanon?
IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said about 56% of Hamas’ estimated 30,000 forces have been wiped out since Israel waged war following the Oct. 7 massacre.
UPDATE: Six of the hostages Hamas took on October 7, 2023 are coming home the hard way:
Israel retrieved the bodies of six hostages from the Gaza Strip, the military said on Tuesday[.]
UPDATE: Is the main event raising the curtain?
Israel and Hezbollah exchanged rocket fire on Wednesday, underlining the risks of a widening Middle East conflict amid US efforts to resurrect flailing ceasefire talks over the war in Gaza.
UPDATE: Fear is the beginning of wisdom:
There appears to be growing criticism of Hamas in Gaza, with some people even posting angry rants against the group on social media.
Hamas will only lose its appeal if we allow Israel to crush it. Then Gazans will fear being associated with Hamas. Wisdom will require rejecting Hamas.
A premature ceasefire will rescue Hamas. That will make Gazans fear Hamas more than they fear bombs. In that case, wisdom means publicly praising Hamas and promising your children will be happy martyrs for their fight.
UPDATE: The curtain is going up for the main event:
Israel launched a wave of airstrikes across southern Lebanon early Sunday in what it called a preemptive strike to avert a large Hezbollah rocket and missile attack. The militant group responded, saying it fired hundreds of rockets and drones to avenge the killing of a top commander last month.
Both sides halted the heavy exchange of fire by mid-morning, signaling no immediate further escalation.
But it isn't really started until Israeli ground forces move in and head for Baalbek.
UPDATE: Did Israel's wave of strikes preempt a big escalation? If it did, Hezbollah's rocket-launching capabilities are being overstated. Or maybe Hezbollah doesn't want to die for Iran on this hill.
UPDATE: Good, if true, as they say: "The Hamas terror group’s Rafah Brigade had “collapsed” as a result of the Israel Defense Forces’s ongoing offensive in the city in the southern Gaza Strip[.]"
UPDATE: The West Bank is not safe territory: "The Israeli army announced on Friday that during a large-scale military operation in the northern West Bank, it killed the leader of the Palestinian Islamist organization Hamas responsible for the city of Jenin."
UPDATE: A sign Gaza isn't the main front now?
Israel has agreed to a temporary pause of some military operations in the Gaza Strip to enable a polio vaccination campaign there, a senior State Department official said.
UPDATE: Hezbollah was hammered with apparent pager bombs. Israeli intelligence will now profile men with one hand visiting Israel.
UPDATE: Hezbollah went to Plan B with walkie-talkies. Are they exploding, too? Tip to Instapundit.
UPDATE: After throwing Hezbollah command and control into chaos, this makes sense:
Israeli sources reported on September 19 that Israeli officials are deciding whether the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will conduct an offensive into Lebanon. Hezbollah will almost certainly not cease rocket fire into northern Israel, which will necessitate an Israeli operation if Israel hopes to achieve its stated objectives in northern Israel.
Although in general it has made sense for a long time. Notwithstanding Hezbollah bravado:
Hezbollah is ready and waiting for the IDF to invade its territory, leader Hassan Nasrallah dared Israel in a speech broadcast on Thursday. “Israel’s foolish Northern Command leader talks about a security zone inside Lebanese territory – we are waiting for you to enter Lebanese territory,” he said. “We are waiting for your tanks, and we will see this as a historic opportunity.” His speech was originally planned to go live on Wednesday but the live-stream was cut off by a second string of exploding devices in 24 hours.
Hezbollah knows that after the October 7, 2023 Hamas murder and rape invasion, Israel isn't going to emphasize nuance if it goes north. And as the article notes, it would have made sense to time an invasion to take care of Hezbollah business with the disruption caused by the pager attack. Perhaps Israel has another operation in their pocket.
UPDATE: Hmmm:
Israeli jets carried out a strike Friday targeting a building in Beirut's southern suburbs, the main stronghold of Iran-backed Hezbollah, killing and wounding several people and causing considerable damage, according to witnesses and media reports.
And:
Israeli warplanes, under the direction of Israel Defense Force intelligence and Northern Command, struck around 100 rocket launchers and other Hezbollah infrastructure in Lebanon, the Israeli Air Force and IDF said Friday.
Is this a subliminal start to the war, trying to do as much damage before unambiguously beginning a drive north that will prompt Hezbollah to attempt to order mass rocket attacks on Israeli bases and civilians?
Remember, Iron Dome can't stop the rain.
UPDATE: Fighting seems to be escalating between Israel and Iran-sponsored Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Does this telegraph approaching open warfare or is this chest-beating and flinging poo to intimidate the other side?
UPDATE: Hmmm:
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducted a large-scale airstrike campaign across Lebanon on September 21 and 22. The IDF announced on September 21 that it targeted over 400 rocket launchers, thousands of rocket barrels, and other military infrastructure in at least two waves of airstrikes across southern Lebanon. An Israeli military correspondent reported that the strikes targeted short- and medium- range rocket launchers within firing range of Haifa and other northern Israeli towns.
Does Israel think strikes will compel Hezbollah to withdraw north of the Litani River?
Or is Israel in a subliminal shaping operation? That is, is Israel ramping up preparations to launch a ground invasion (a long-term raid, really) using escalated tensions as cover? I recall that America used an elevated strike pace supposedly enforcing the no-fly zone over Iraq to shape the battlefield for Operation Iraqi Freedom for many months. Is this what we are seeing?
UPDATE: More and expanded strikes:
The military said it was expanding the airstrikes to include areas of the valley along Lebanon’s eastern border with Syria. Hezbollah has long had an established presence in the valley, and it is where the group was founded in 1982 with the help of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards.
Interesting that Israel is reaching up to the Bekaa Valley, which I see as the end point of a potential Israeli raid-in-force.
Is the civilian casualty claim true? Hard to say. But if true, we all know Hezbollah uses human shields by putting their military targets next to civilians.
Hezbollah is shooting back but it isn't a large-scale barrage that has been their ultimate threat.
UPDATE: We're getting close to agreement on this being the war:
A Hezbollah leader declared an “open-ended battle” was underway as both sides appeared to be spiraling closer toward all-out war.
If that leader is correct, how long will Hezbollah let Israel have a free hand in pounding Hezbollah rocket and missile assets?
I started this post recognizing the downgrading of the Hamas front. It seems Israel is on the cusp of making the Hezbollah front the main effort in a serious manner.
Unless Hezbollah backs down and retreats north. Will it? Can it? Would Iran allow it?
UPDATE: This post started in recognition that Hezbollah was rising above Hamas as the primary threat. Since then the shift has become more apparent. It is shifting faster:
Israel set new war objectives for Lebanon on September 16. Accomplishing these objectives would require the IDF to undertake a second major military campaign in Lebanon as part of the October 7 War. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced on September 16 that returning Israeli citizens to their homes in northern Israel would be a new Israeli war aim as part of the October 7 War.
The scope of Israeli strikes in Lebanon against Hezbollah targets illustrates this:
But until Israeli ground troops move north into Lebanon, I won't start a new post to mark the big shift to a new phase of the war.
UPDATE: Sh*t got real:
The U.S. asked Israel over the weekend to take steps to ensure the safety of Americans in Lebanon if the U.S. were to evacuate its citizens as fighting escalates between Israel and Hezbollah, two Israeli official and one U.S. official told Axios.
UPDATE: Additional thoughts on Israel's expanding assault on Hezbollah.
UPDATE: Wrecking Hezbollah command and control would certainly buy time to destroy rocket and missile sites from the air, and if necessary move in troops to capture the launching sites:
The Israeli military said on Tuesday it killed Hezbollah's rocket chief in a "targeted" strike on a Beirut suburb.
Also, I assume the Lebanese Health Ministry is no more trustworthy on civilian casualties than the Gaza ministry run by Hamas.
Israel intercepted a missile fired by Hezbollah near Tel Aviv on Wednesday, an unprecedented attack by the militant group that reached deep into the country’s commercial heartlands and marked a new escalatory step in the conflict between the two sides.
To me this says Israel has time to keep hitting Hezbollah targets with fires before it must send troops in to stand on the ground of the rocket- and missile-launching sites.
UPDATE: Sh*t got real:
Israel's military chief told troops to prepare for a possible ground offensive in Lebanon as heavy Israeli airstrikes continued for a third day and militants targeted the cities of Tel Aviv and Eilat.
Either a bluff to get Hezbollah to withdraw north of the Litani River or really getting ready to invade in what I assume will be a large, lengthy raid to tear up Hezbollah infrastructure all the way to the Bekaa Valley.
UPDATE: Bluff or telegraphing?
Dimming hopes for a cease-fire, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Thursday that Israel plans to continue striking Hezbollah “with full force” and will not stop until all of its goals are achieved.
If Hezbollah stopped firing rockets at Israel and evacuated southern Lebanon as the UN supposedly insists on, there's be a ceasefire.
UPDATE: As long as Hezbollah is sending signals, Israel seems determined to destroy as much from the air as possible while it has the luxury:
The Israeli Defense Forces launched a strike on Iran's Hezbollah headquarters in Beirut Friday with a target of eliminating the group's leader, Hassan Nasrallah.
No word on results.
UPDATE: More on Israel's efforts. Israel exploited the pager and walkie-talkie attacks to hit Hezbollah leadership meeting in person. And exploited that confusion to mount an aerial attack deep into Hezbollah-occupied Lebanon territory to degrade Hezbollah's rocket and missile force (and I assume other targets).
So far, Hezbollah has not responded by unleashing its arsenal on Israeli civilians with a mass attack. Does that mean Hezbollah is incapable of doing that? Or does it mean that so far Hezbollah would rather endure air attacks than give Israel a reason to send in ground troops?
UPDATE: Huh:
Israel’s prime minister has warned Iran there was “nowhere in the Middle East” that Israel could not strike after troops were ordered to prepare for an invasion of Lebanon.
Will Iran stand down and let Israel destroy Hezbollah lest Israel go for the jugular in Iran?
Hezbollah might need to take the spear to let Iran make the final dash to nukes.
UPDATE: Television news on September 30th states Israeli troop have entered Lebanon. If I had to guess, I'd say troops are cutting lanes through border obstacles and essentially creating bridgeheads inside Lebanon to pass mechanized forces through.
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