A rumor of broader war spreads in the Middle East as Iran feels compelled to protect their proxy Hamas.
Is this the reason for the delay in Iran's telegraphed strikes on Israel?
Iran is likely trying to expand divisions within Israel and between Israel and the United States ahead of a possible Iranian drone and missile attack. Three anonymous senior Iranian officials speaking to Reuters on August 13 claimed that Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah would refrain from attacking Israel if it reached a ceasefire-hostage agreement with Hamas.We'll see. But Iran isn't the only actor.
Secretary Austin reiterated the United States' commitment to take every possible step to defend Israel and noted the strengthening of U.S. military force posture and capabilities throughout the Middle East in light of escalating regional tensions. Reinforcing this commitment, Secretary Austin has ordered the USS ABRAHAM LINCOLN Carrier Strike Group, equipped with F-35C fighters, to accelerate its transit to the Central Command area of responsibility, adding to the capabilities already provided by the USS THEODORE ROOSEVELT Carrier Strike Group.
Additionally, the Secretary has ordered the USS Georgia (SSGN 729) guided missile submarine to the Central Command region.
Iran wants to support their proxies. But America might really disapprove in a cruise missile barrage sort of way. That's one problem with client groups (or states).
And sure, that dynamic applies to America, too. Sometimes they drag you into war rather than insulate you from war.
If Hezbollah and Iran
seriously enter this war, a new phase of the Last Hamas War begins. Much as in 2006
when the original Hamas fight was forgotten when the Hezbollah front
opened.
Speaking of that 2006 Hezbollah front:
Israeli reliance on poorly understood and controversial Effects-Based Operations (EBO) and Systemic Operational Design (SOD) warfighting theories, and a nearly singular dependence on air power, were root causes of Israeli problems. Additionally, after years of counterinsurgency (COIN) operations in the Gaza Strip and West Bank territories, IDF ground forces were tactically unprepared and untrained to fight against a determined Hezbollah force that conducted what was, in many ways, a conventional, fixed-position defense.
That was basically my view at the time. Let's hope Israel moved on from air power tunnel vision. I think math rules out an air-only campaign, but you never know what political pressures force leadership to believe.
We've been easing into this new phase for a while now. I think I'll call that transition right now. Even if shooting doesn't start between when I wrote this Wednesday morning and when it publishes Thursday. The trend is strong enough.
UPDATE: Is Iran having second thoughts about a day of missile rage?
"Currently, Iran even sees a chance in the Doha negotiations to gain more by seemingly delaying or suspending their response. The Iranians are essentially on a path of lowering expectations. A total war, which could ultimately be chaotic, could create severe problems for them with a faltering economy and potentially collapse it, as well as threats to the regime itself," Rabi added.
Huh.
UPDATE: Is this a sign that Israel is prepared to shift gears to wreck Hezbollah in southern Lebanon?
IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said about 56% of Hamas’ estimated 30,000 forces have been wiped out since Israel waged war following the Oct. 7 massacre.
UPDATE: Six of the hostages Hamas took on October 7, 2023 are coming home the hard way:
Israel retrieved the bodies of six hostages from the Gaza Strip, the military said on Tuesday[.]
UPDATE: Is the main event raising the curtain?
Israel and Hezbollah exchanged rocket fire on Wednesday, underlining the risks of a widening Middle East conflict amid US efforts to resurrect flailing ceasefire talks over the war in Gaza.
UPDATE: Fear is the beginning of wisdom:
There appears to be growing criticism of Hamas in Gaza, with some people even posting angry rants against the group on social media.
Hamas will only lose its appeal if we allow Israel to crush it. Then Gazans will fear being associated with Hamas. Wisdom will require rejecting Hamas.
A premature ceasefire will rescue Hamas. That will make Gazans fear Hamas more than they fear bombs. In that case, wisdom means publicly praising Hamas and promising your children will be happy martyrs for their fight.
UPDATE: The curtain is going up for the main event:
Israel launched a wave of airstrikes across southern Lebanon early Sunday in what it called a preemptive strike to avert a large Hezbollah rocket and missile attack. The militant group responded, saying it fired hundreds of rockets and drones to avenge the killing of a top commander last month.
Both sides halted the heavy exchange of fire by mid-morning, signaling no immediate further escalation.
But it isn't really started until Israeli ground forces move in and head for Baalbek.
UPDATE: Did Israel's wave of strikes preempt a big escalation? If it did, Hezbollah's rocket-launching capabilities are being overstated. Or maybe Hezbollah doesn't want to die for Iran on this hill.
UPDATE: Good, if true, as they say: "The Hamas terror group’s Rafah Brigade had “collapsed” as a result of the Israel Defense Forces’s ongoing offensive in the city in the southern Gaza Strip[.]"
UPDATE: The West Bank is not safe territory: "The Israeli army announced on Friday that during a large-scale military operation in the northern West Bank, it killed the leader of the Palestinian Islamist organization Hamas responsible for the city of Jenin."
UPDATE: A sign Gaza isn't the main front now?
Israel has agreed to a temporary pause of some military operations in the Gaza Strip to enable a polio vaccination campaign there, a senior State Department official said.
UPDATE: Hezbollah was hammered with apparent pager bombs. Israeli intelligence will now profile men with one hand visiting Israel.
UPDATE: Hezbollah went to Plan B with walkie-talkies. Are they exploding, too? Tip to Instapundit.
UPDATE: After throwing Hezbollah command and control into chaos, this makes sense:
Israeli sources reported on September 19 that Israeli officials are deciding whether the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will conduct an offensive into Lebanon. Hezbollah will almost certainly not cease rocket fire into northern Israel, which will necessitate an Israeli operation if Israel hopes to achieve its stated objectives in northern Israel.
Although in general it has made sense for a long time. Notwithstanding Hezbollah bravado:
Hezbollah is ready and waiting for the IDF to invade its territory, leader Hassan Nasrallah dared Israel in a speech broadcast on Thursday. “Israel’s foolish Northern Command leader talks about a security zone inside Lebanese territory – we are waiting for you to enter Lebanese territory,” he said. “We are waiting for your tanks, and we will see this as a historic opportunity.” His speech was originally planned to go live on Wednesday but the live-stream was cut off by a second string of exploding devices in 24 hours.
Hezbollah knows that after the October 7, 2023 Hamas murder and rape invasion, Israel isn't going to emphasize nuance if it goes north. And as the article notes, it would have made sense to time an invasion to take care of Hezbollah business with the disruption caused by the pager attack. Perhaps Israel has another operation in their pocket.
UPDATE: Hmmm:
Israeli jets carried out a strike Friday targeting a building in Beirut's southern suburbs, the main stronghold of Iran-backed Hezbollah, killing and wounding several people and causing considerable damage, according to witnesses and media reports.
And:
Israeli warplanes, under the direction of Israel Defense Force intelligence and Northern Command, struck around 100 rocket launchers and other Hezbollah infrastructure in Lebanon, the Israeli Air Force and IDF said Friday.
Is this a subliminal start to the war, trying to do as much damage before unambiguously beginning a drive north that will prompt Hezbollah to attempt to order mass rocket attacks on Israeli bases and civilians?
Remember, Iron Dome can't stop the rain.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
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