Weekend Data Dump

Don't forget the NORAD Santa tracker for your little ones!

Repairing damaged credibility is hard: "In the aftermath of the chaotic exit from Afghanistan in August, when the U.S. clearly signalled it has little appetite for foreign wars, the challenge for an administration still in its first year is to indicate it will act if red lines, which Putin likes to test, are crossed." And restoring credibility is dangerous.

The White House panicked over a map of China and Taiwan.  I'd expect China to do something like this--not America.

Top military and intelligence people didn't have the decency to resign in protest before or in shame after the Afghanistan skedaddle debacle. So fire them. If such massive failure isn't punished, we'll get more.

The poor have no heat? Let them burn cake! Tip to Instapundit.

Hahahahahaha! "DeSantis budgets $8 million to transport illegal aliens sent to Florida to places like Delaware and Martha’s Vineyard[.]" Via Instapundit.

Morocco buys Israeli.

Since 2014, I've certainly pointed this out when writers wonder if Russia will invade Ukraine: "In reality, of course, Russia has already invaded Ukraine." Why the West is shy about that is beyond me.

Winter is coming. And Ukrainian reservists are preparing: "If Russian forces do invade, they will be up against a much more formidable opponent than the ragtag army they faced in 2014."

Collusion. 

The left has not been any less nutball crazy since Trump left office.

Despotism: Legally purchased yet illegally possessed. Welcome to China. When everyone is a criminal, anyone can be sent to prison. Why would anyone visit China?

I enjoyed how Senator Klobuchar joined Jake Tapper in complaining about Senator Cruz not wearing a mask while sitting next to Klobuchar. Klobuchar is wearing her mask pulled below her nose. What's the difference? Although she was better than the chin-mask guy behind them. Tip to Treacher.

To deter Russia from invading Ukraine, it is unrealistic to expect Turkey or Georgia to take the steps suggested. Nor will NATO conduct an act of war--which is what a blockade is--to deter war.

What does "ending" the Korean War do for our security? I don't understand the recent fetish with "ending" wars that keep going.

Teach women not to rape? Someone had to be beaten with the clue bat. But get a clue, she did. 

Someone died "with" and not "from" the Omicron variant of the Xi Jinping Flu. How long before it is "near"?

The Left: "Health care is a human right!" Also the Left: "People who didn't get vaccinated shouldn't be treated!" So, what treatment do we deny to smokers, the obese, bad drivers, and rock climbers?

China has more territorial ambitions and financial problems.

An Iranian rocket is preparing for a ICBM test space launch.

Special operations.

China has a way to go to make their spaceplane operational: "They conceivably could also be used to attack enemy satellites, aircraft, or ground targets from orbit, striking faster than ground-based missile systems and/or eluding standard defenses due to their speed and maneuverability. Thus, the line between spaceplanes and hypersonic orbital gliders grows thinner." About those ground targets.

I think the Biden administration's push for a nationwide electric vehicle recharging system is a massive gift to the upper middle class--subsidized by blue collar workers--who buy the subsidized EVs. 

I've stated I was only worried about the pandemic for the first couple months when uncertainty was high. Upon reflection, I was worried when stores were opened up again that first summer. But I faced that worry and went back into them. And then went to Las Vegas. I wore masks. But I did face my fears. And I'm glad I did.

Once again I say Californians can enjoy what they vote for. Via Instapundit.

The United Arab Emirates halted talks over buying F-35s. America was concerned about the UAE's ties to China. Indeed. I still don't know why the UAE needs F-35s when Iran is their likely foe. Maybe this just makes France--which just inked a deal for French fighters there--feel better about the whole AUKUS submarine deal.

A "systemically racist" country sure requires a lot of fake hate crimes to maintain that fiction. Tip to Instapundit.

The French elites are still jerks. But at least they aren't stupidly suicidal.

Getting closer to a moat and draw bridge to battle gang smash-and-grab pillaging. Vote for this and you'll keep getting this.

The Democrats have gone even more nuts. To be clear: 1) Capitol Building riot bad. 2) It was not an insurrection. And 3) Democratic attempts to portray the riot as an insurrection are worse than the riot. Democrats went nuts and stayed there. Tips to Instapundit. How can the damage be undone? Seriously, just how was the so-called insurrection--that used no firearms--supposed to work?

Swarm attacks and defending against them: "The U.S. Army and Navy know enemy robot swarms are a threat. They are developing high-powered 'microwave cannons' that can burn drone 'brains' and protect armored units and Navy ships from swarm attack." But, as I explored in Army magazine, what about protecting the infantry--who can't carry around microwave cannons?

Where your entertainment can get you killed.

Ted Galen Carpenter has an apparently limitless ability to abandon victims to predator nations. His ability to rationalize Russian aggression and paint Ukraine as the dangerous party is the most recent example. It's fine to argue against intervention. But Carpenter is a special kind of awful person.

Yes, stop hyperventilating over Russia's "new" "hybrid" warfare tactics. It is neither. We risk analysis paralysis by elevating what Russia did to mythic proportions.

Is an American loitering anti-radiation missile project going to be revived? This weapon that goes after enemy air defenses played a role in Tom Clancy's Red Storm Rising, if memory serves me.

This is possible because Iraqis search for and kill jihadis every day: "The U.S. and its allies are stepping up efforts to counter the Islamic State group in Africa as U.S. forces wind down their combat role against ISIS in Iraq." Afghanistan doesn't do this since Biden's skedaddle debacle.

The Estonian defense minister gets the threat of Belarus yoked to Russia, to NATO, "particularly at the eastern borders of Poland and the Baltic states[.]"

The Biden administration is holding back additional military aid to Ukraine yet says it will send more aid in case Russia invades. Having learned nothing from Afghanistan, our Smart Diplomacy® wants to make sure another enemy gets piles of American weapons after our ally is defeated. 

Our military will focus on competing where it makes sense, to avoid dissipating our power to resist China and Russia. Focus? Oh really? "President Joe Biden's nominee for the vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff told the Senate 'gender advisers' for combat troops are critical to the United States' success[.]" That moron is unworthy of leading our military.

Ukraine wants American air defense missiles to deter a Russian invasion. I'm surprised Ukraine hasn't been able to update its Russian-designed air defenses.

The United States will build more M-1A2 tanks.

Russia may add intermediate-range nuclear missiles---that they probably already deployed--to threaten Europe to counter a potential missile threat that NATO denies. Which is an admission of Russian conventional weakness, of course. 

Romania is in the market for 32 used Norwegian F-16s.

Denmark and Norway will join a European multi-national corvette project. Good. Defeat Russia in the Baltic Sea.

About an Israeli air strike inside Syria during the spring: "According to current and former intelligence and security officials briefed on the matter, the June 8 strike was part of a campaign to stop what Israeli officials believe was a nascent attempt by Syria to restart its production of deadly nerve agents." A chemical weapons program? Wait. What?

Throw Ukraine and Georgia under the bus to get peace for our time? Just stop. No buffer zone can satisfy the Russians. Help those willing to fight Russian aggression to remain free. And offer Russia the chance to flip and join forces to resist China.

I always dropped money into Salvation Army kettles. Every time. It wasn't a lot, mind you. But once they went full racist, to Hell with them. Let them get money from the woke they appeased.

Russia denied invading Ukraine and a lot of the media still goes along with that fiction: "Moscow has cultivated close ties with pro-Russian rebels controlling swathes of the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine but denies being a party to their seven-year war with Ukrainian government forces." FFS, people. Russian troops invaded the Donbas to take it for their AstroTurf  "rebels." "Factbox," my ass.

The Taiwanese say they are ready for any Chinese effort to get around their amphibious lift shortage because "the nation's military strongly defends ports and airports, and they will not be easy to occupy in a short time. Landing operations will face extremely high risks." I hope that is true because I think going for ports and airports is how China will invade Taiwan. Also, can Taiwan's logistics really outlast the difficult Chinese logistics effort?

To Hell with those selfish children of the upper middle class who want blue collar workers to pay for their obscenely expensive but useless college degree loans. I do not feel sorry for them and I have contempt and anger for people who support their money grab.

Democrats vow to beat "Big Meat."

To be fair, Biden must think it is pretty funny to get a tough question from the media.

Ukraine defends its massing of troops as defensive in light of Russia's threats. True. Honestly, as long as Russia occupies Ukrainian territory I think bombing the Kremlin would be defensive, really. Not that I favor that. But let's get real.

I went without things and saved money to allow my children to go to college. The idea that I should also pay for the children of the upper middle class who took out student loans that they don't want to repay is an outrage.

Huh: "New German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said on Tuesday Russia would face 'massive consequences' if it invades Ukraine." Perhaps that is true. But with Germany's nearly non-existent military and its appetite for Russian energy, Germany won't be imposing those consequences.

Some in Britain are worried about their small fleet that lacks offensive power: "When ships do get to sea they act like porcupines – well defended herbivores with limited offensive capabilities." The ships must protect the carrier at sea. Making the Royal Navy a one-hit fleet. Although I now concede the fleet makes sense in light of Brexit. But for fighting peer enemies, it has problems. 

Adam Schiff joins in with all the other leftists in staging a fake hate crime. The man is a few fries short of a Happy Meal, to be sure.

For all the talk of a Russian-Chinese united front, "China has never recognized the annexation of Crimea, for example, nor does Russia side with China on its expansive claims in the South China Sea. They have also stopped short of binding themselves in a formal treaty alliance, preferring to maintain their ability to act independently and flexibly." That's because each would relish the other going to war with America while they avoid eye contact when the other asks for help.

It is shameful that Democrats falsely claim Republicans threaten democracy. It's a "big lie." And really, when you see what the Democrats don't see as a threat to democracy it is hard not to ascribe their concerns as projection.

Well, it looks like Democrats want to elevate the Palestinian issue above all else--again.

Bastards! When I had plumbing work that included replacing shower fixtures, I kept my ancient single-head shower head that rivals a fire hose in its power. But more important, it is a lesson for how government regulations can twist the private sector into defending perverse incentives. Tip to Instapundit.

Re. Senator Warren: "A sane world would recognize that she doesn’t have the talent to be an unpaid intern at Tesla or SpaceX and tell her to stop barfing up nonsense."

Sometimes I see maps of Michigan that completely leave off the Upper Peninsula. I feel as if evil forces--perhaps Canada or maybe Wisconsin--are trying to strip away this territory. 

The people in Russia's provinces feel neglected: "The government doesn't care much about people outside of Moscow and St. Petersburg." Moscow siphons off the wealth of the Far East. If this keeps up, China won't have to conquer that territory.

As if you didn't need your own lying eyes to reject Dana Milbank's insane "research" that the media has been more biased against Biden than against Trump, here's a deeper look. The dishonestly of our media is astounding. Tip to Instapundit.

Once again, Trump did not say drink bleach: "'Supposing you brought the light inside the body, which you can do either through the skin or in some other way,' said Trump to William Bryan, the undersecretary for science and technology at the Department of Homeland Security. 'And I think you said you’re going to test that, too. Sounds interesting, right? And then I see the disinfectant, where it knocks it out in one minute. And is there a way we can do something like that, by injection inside or almost a cleaning, because you see it gets in the lungs.'" But Democrats believe the news industry that told them this lie--and keeps telling them this lie. A longer quote is even more obvious.

Just in time for jihadis who can now set up shop in Taliban-run Afghanistan, America cuts off a long-standing source of intelligence on jihadi activity.  

What should America do to keep Afghanistan from collapsing? Well, we did that until we lost the war with our stupid policy. I say we let our enemies who plotted and cheered our defeat pay for this mission.

China: "The U.S. Defense Department is newly concerned about China’s further military buildup near the demarcation line across its Himalayan border with India, a senior defense official told Foreign Policy, after Beijing deployed long-range strategic bombers to the area last month in another apparent warning to New Delhi."

Huh, I remember the last time Germany and Russia targeted a country stuck between them. Ukrainian military industry suffers from a: "Russian embargo on spare parts and components [and] Germany’s de facto embargo on substitute components from NATO nations[.]" Maybe the Germans are right about not being trustworthy enough to have a powerful military. Back to the article, the author raises the point that Ukraine has a good military industry but needs foreign help to fill capabilities gaps. Something I've mentioned. It's damning that nearly 8 years after Russia first invaded, NATO hasn't filled those gaps. 

Recreate First Fleet to resist China in the South China Sea? Great, another headquarters. Maybe if we focused more on leaders less interested in woke policies and more interested in training our sailors not to run into other ships or undersea mountains, maintaining our ships, and building ships that can fight and survive--under budget--we'd be better off. But I'm just spitballing.

Well, this is true: "Part of the problem is that Russia’s current position vis-à-vis Ukraine is the result of actions the country has taken since 2014. If Moscow hadn’t intervened in Ukraine, the country’s political orientation could have developed differently. Instead, nearly eight years of Russian aggression has made a pro-Kremlin agenda anathema to most of the Ukrainian population and much of the political elite." Will nobody in Russia tell Putin he's effing up royally?

Democrats are in deep doo doo, polling-wise.  But it is 11 months until November 2022. I thought the January 6th riots might destroy Republican chances in the 2022 elections. But 11 months later, here we are. Although I believe Democrats shot themselves in the foot by insisting a brief riot was an insurrection. Republicans could very well shoot themselves in the foot the same way on some issue.

Enjoying what they voted for--good and hard. I just don't care any more. Via Instapundit.

The Mask Maoists think it is okay to take off masks for photographs. It's like a 5-second rule for the Xi Jinping Flu virus, I guess. 

America abandoned Afghan women it once hailed for defying the Taliban. Maybe our vice president will be assigned to find the root cause of their problem. Tip to Treacher. Once more, with feeling:

I don't know what triggered the Little Ice Age, but I do know it wasn't mankind's fault by burning fossil fuels. But if it happens again, I know we'll be blamed. Tip to Instapundit.

Officially, this is satire: "It was a somber day for white-hooded members of the Ku Klux Klan as they received news that their organization was disbanding, since the progressive Left was accomplishing all of their goals with unparalleled effectiveness." But how do you interpret the facts any other way? "Racism is in good hands," indeed.

Another place where America abandoned locals who killed jihadis every day.

Chinese aerial refueling. Fortunately, Taiwan and their F-16s stand between China and the Pacific.

Well, yes: "Is America vulnerable to another Battle of the Bulge today?" Surprise is rarely the result of hiding what you are preparing; but of targets convinced that there is a benign explanation based on the target's rational and not enemy rational. As for the Bulge, the Allies over-relied on Ultra intercepts of German Enigma communications--which Hitler did not use while preparing the offensive. There were no car keys under that street light.

A war for Taiwan would be longer, wider, and uglier than either China or America think. Because a war over Taiwan is about more than Taiwan. Although I think it would be likely that China does not strike American bases to avoid bringing America into the war quickly, in the hope that China could conquer Taiwan before America even decides to intervene. And yes, nuclear escalation is possible.

Circumstances have changed. Why don't policies follow?

Will Meta's Horizon World need its own cyber criminal justice system? If so, would that be practice for e-states?

I've mentioned my initial wariness about Trump because of his past liberal stands. I thought Democrats lost an opportunity to work with Trump over Republican objections. And Democrats did move that way (sadly, the video embed died) until they decided on fake Russia collusion-based Resistance. Which forced Trump to become surprisingly (to me)--and happily--conservative in his policies.

Good news from Florida Man's poop.

Hey, you effed up. You trusted the Left.

The French, too, are shifting their army to focus on conventional warfare. The flip side is reducing their forces in Africa in the battle against jihadis.

The Russians don't want their Soviet empire back now. But they do want to stake out its perimeter for eventual recovery. #WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings Unless we can come up with an agreement that only agrees to peripheral Russian demands that Russia can pretend is a glorious triumph of Russian diplomacy, we should reject this. A faux triumph might allow Russia to face reality in the east.

The Army announced its next brigade rotations to South Korea, Europe, and Iraq.

Taiwan has quietly made rapid progress on building its own submarines. The first may be in service by 2024. With subs, Taiwan can fight a blockade of Taiwan, blockade Chinese ports, and be a threat to Chinese invasion flotillas. And--by using American torpedoes--even provide plausible deniability for early American intervention with submarines. It's a fascinating story. Could it have influenced Australia?

When speaking of Russia's 2014 invasion of Ukraine, why is Crimea only mentioned? Why go along with Russia's lies that it did not invade the Donbas later in the same year?

Is the National Guard getting tired of being an operational--used instead of active units routinely--rather than a strategic reserve--called up only during major conflict to supplement the active forces--of the United States active military? That's certainly one reason why I got out many decades ago when that practice started.

SOUTHCOM: "The U.S. military's new Southern Command Gen. Laura Richardson said Friday she is focused on strengthening military relationships with South American countries despite fraught politics." I repeat my advice to build The SOUTHCOM Queen.

The French are looking to bolster arms sales to India.

Guam--America's "forgotten" territory--is America's new front line against China. Let's go deep into the TDR archives for that breaking news.

Despite Qatar having close ties with Turkey, I don't see how Qatar's recent actions in the eastern Mediterranean Sea help Turkey. Qatar's support won't matter over the Libya deal; and Qatar's deal with "Greek" Cyprus is not helpful to Turkey.

Are we nearing the end of the Xi Jinping pandemic? It is over two years from the start in Wuhan, China. The Spanish Flu burned out after two years. If this pandemic burns out in the next few months, we will know that our public health professionals did not shorten the pandemic even with vaccines. Perhaps lives were saved. But I'll wait to see the net losses between lives saved from the virus and lives lost from the lockdowns. We talk of "long covid" effects. What about "long lockdown" effects? Especially for children of the poor and blue collar workers. And if the pandemic does not burn out soon, is that the result of being engineered in a lab or just bad luck?

According to the Wall Street Journal, America left behind "60,000 Afghan interpreters who had applied for SIV visas remain behind in Afghanistan, 33,000 of them are cleared for vetting." That's on top of the 14,000 American legal residents and citizens left behind in the skeddaddle debacle. Which supports my view that the military just packed into the planes whoever was close just to pad their numbers to claim a massive "success" rather than sift for our friends only. Lord knows who we evacuated.

Is the Biden administration preparing to cave to Russia over Ukraine? I hold open the hope that we are preparing a pretend concession to flip Russia to free them to face their true enemy China.

I doubt that China and Russia are coordinating their aggressive stances. Both have had aggressive stances for decades. At any given moment both have been doing this at the same time pretty often. The two are frenemies with temporary benefits. I think the author's contention that Russia does not fear China and so is happy to supply China with technology is stunningly blind to the appeasement involved.

My impression of Democratic and Republican approaches to "gerrymandering" Congressional districts is that both are willing to push the limits of the law to their benefit. The difference is that when Republicans lose out they tend to follow the rules to do better next time. Democrats are more prone to changing the rules when they lose to benefit themselves. And that includes creating so-called "nonpartisan" redistricting commissions that trend leftward over time.

Isn't Seattle getting exactly what they've said they wanted? The crime is surely narrowly focused geographically. But the scum will expand their range as the pillaging opportunities in the initial problem zone fade. The 2022 "summer of love" is going to be amazing. Enjoy!

All your 5G information are belong to us.

It was a complete joy to go to the theater to see the latest Spider-Man movie with my daughter. I'm so over wearing a mask that I didn't even notice whether other people were wearing masks.

A private group went into Afghanistan to rescue 39 Americans and legal residents (via Instapundit). Things only governments could do are migrating to the private sector. How long before there is warBay? I used to write more about privatized warfare (collected here for 99 cents, if you are interested).

The Fuck-Up Fairy controls the policies of Democratic-run cities. The woke are few in number but the rest of the normal Democrats fear them too much to tell them to ef off. Tip to Instapundit.

Look, Trump said at least one thing that has roots in anti-Semitism. But his overall statements were pro-Israel and pro-Jewish. Honestly, I've heard plenty of Democrats say the same thing about Congress. I'd be happy if the increasingly woke-dominated Democrats displayed such low levels of anti-Semitism.

Well yes, Democrats were a mass army of useful idiots for Russia to undermine American faith in democracy.

What is their major malfunction? These three retired flag officer morons are worried about "a coup succeeding next time"?  What was the Trump coup attempt last time?  FFS, could these stooges show some urgency for untwisting their panties, getting their heads out of their butts by supporting this fantasy and outrage (via Instapundit), and stop trying to make things worse?

To be fair, Senator Blumenthal doesn't know a lot of things. But his excuse that he didn't know the organization he addressed is communist is less credible than the British guy who "accidentally" fell on a 57mm round.

Wow! The Lions crushed the Arizona Cardinals. That's gonna hurt in the morning.

My latest view is that while I'm done with masks--and have been since late spring--unless required and I must go inside that place, I will get a booster shot. I wasn't worried about Delta. Perhaps Omicron is more mild. But I'm not sure. And since Omicron is very transmissible, it is probably good to reinforce my vaccine to make sure when I get Omicron that the effects will be less. And I'll get the Johnson and Johnson vaccine. I don't see the reason for the panic over rare side effects. I survived one shot of that and I'd rather go home with the one who brought me to the prom rather than risk a different vaccine. If Omicron was far more deadly, or if I had developed health issues, my vaccine choice could have been different. Also, there is a transmission path from me to people in poor health who I don't want to see risk even a mild variant. We'll see. I have time left before my scheduled appointment for more news to affect my decision.

And Now For Something Completely Different

What is best in life? To meme your enemies. To see them driven insane before you, and to hear the laughter of their women!

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                          I regret nothing!

 

 

 

    

Outsourcing the Solution to the Final Solution?

Has Israel really failed to fix or work around its aerial refueling tanker shortage for a strike on Iran's nuclear facilities? And does Israel really believe the Biden administration will help with aerial refueling?

I get a "when near, appear far" vibe from this story:

While stressing that no decision has been made about military strikes, Israeli defense sources tell Breaking Defense that they are hopeful American mid-air refueling capabilities can be secured in case ongoing nuclear talks with Iran break down for good and Israel feels forced to take military action.

With Israeli Minister of Defense Benny Gantz and Mossad head David Barnea in Washington today for meetings with American officials about Iran, and the talks about a new nuclear agreement seemingly on the rocks, Israeli military planners are taking a realistic look at the holes in their war plans and hoping to find supplemental capabilities from the US.

More than a decade ago, I read that Israel needed the equivalent of 100 aircraft sorties to launch a strike on Iran's nuclear facilities with a hope of success. But Israel couldn't put 100 sorties over Iran at once.

So I looked at ways to reach 100 strike sorties without 100 aircraft. 

And I added to my speculation a few years later.

Basically, if America had too few tankers for a critical mission we'd probably buy more tankers. But Israel isn't nearly as rich. Although given the importance of preventing Iran from getting nuclear weapons, that could be a high priority nonetheless.

Israel is now seeking more aerial refueling tankers.

The fact that Israel says it still lacks sufficient aerial refueling capabilities could very well mean that Israel has in fact thought outside the box as I did. And no doubt infinitely better.

Israel also has more options now, including better bombs, cyber capabilities, local assets inside Iran, and anti-Iran allies in the Persian Gulf.

So Israel must have ways to carry out a sufficiently powerful strike if the threat is existential.

The fact that Israel is telling America it needs aerial refueling simply cannot mean Israel expects America to provide that capability. Surely the Israelis understand that Democrats' odd unrequited love for the Iranian mullahs rules out helping Israel. The Democrats truly believe Iran under the mullahs is one deal away from being a responsible regional power.

Yet this part of the story seems off, too:

While Israel has other, more complicated options for how to pull off a strike, getting American refueling support is viewed as the best way forward.

After more than a decade of looking at the problem, aerial refueling is still the best option?

Remember, outsourcing that capability means America has a veto on Israel's actions in an area that strikes directly at Israel's "never again" convictions. America has a lot of influence over Israel when push comes to shove because of Israel's reliance on American long-term support. But the long term matters little if in the short term Israel is nuked. 

So I don't believe Israel thinks it needs a green light to conduct this kind of mission, as the story states. Israel would rather not strike, but surely they have a plan to strike. But is a revolution to overthrow the mullahs going to take place in time?

And no, I don't think Iran under the nutball Shia jihadis can be deterred from using nukeswith any reasonable certainty.

So it makes more sense to me that Israel's request for American aerial refueling is a smoke screen to make America thinks it has veto power over an Israeli strike. Or at least to make Iran think America has that veto power.

UPDATE: So who thinks Israel is waiting for tankers?

In late 2021 the United States halted its efforts to get Israel two KC-46A aerial tankers as soon as possible. The reason given was the growing backlog of late deliveries to the U.S. Air Force. Israel suspects the Americans are also trying to make it more difficult for the Israelis to carry out a massive air attack on Iranian nuclear facilities.

I don't see many hands up.

There is No Free Cyber Lunch

Cyber operations will be part of war but they will not replace kinetics in war. And cyber attacks could provoke a kinetic war.

Sure, the cyber domain is now a part of war:

But cyber operations are unlikely to be decisive on their own. For years, airpower enthusiasts were predicting that strategic bombing would replace the need for traditional ground operations. We’re still waiting. Airpower alone has never won a war (as distinct from contributing to victory). Events are normally decided on the ground. In the same way, future wars are unlikely to be decided in cyberspace alone.

The real danger of cyberwarfare is not that it will replace kinetic operations, but that it will incite them. The line between war and peace is reasonably clear when dealing with tanks, warships and aircraft, but it is grey when dealing with malware and online bots. If countries feel safer engaging in conflict behind the veil of anonymity provided by the internet, the risk of a catastrophic miscalculation increases.

I reject the idea that cyber will replace kinetics in close air support. Cyber domain operations are one more part of joint operations and not a replacement for any or all of the other domains of war. 

One day, like air power is a powerful factor in fighting for the sea or land, cyber power will be a powerful factor in fighting for the air, sea, and land. But it is too new for that level of influence.

The Israelis certainly demonstrated how kinetics can trump cyber warriors:

Israel’s response marks the first time that a country has used immediate military force to destroy a foe’s cyber capability in an active conflict.  

As I noted in that post about enemy hackers:

If you know where they are, just kill them. Dead cyber operators can't hack. Israel realizes this. Do we?

This is a reality I've frequently highlighted.

So while cyber can have an effect, my old advice remains valid--when you Twitter a king, kill him:

In the past I've noted that we can't get so caught up in the mystique of cyber-warfare that we forget that a JDAM dropped on an office building filled with enemy hackers is probably a more straightforward way of dealing with their offensive efforts than equivalent hacking back at them.

And don't think cyber attacks on the supply chain will avoid retaliation even if they seem like the perfect attack method (via Instapundit). If a country hurt by a severe cyber attack thinks their cyber operations to respond to enemy cyber operations are weak or judged ineffective in effects achieved, the cyber target will use kinetic means to retaliate.

And then the kinetics start exploding. Which we'll need luck to live through.

Casting a Giant Bear-Shaped Shadow

Too many people write that Russia has reason to be worried that NATO will invade Russia. No buffer zone is enough to satisfy that kind of paranoia. Enough is enough. Russia is too weak to justify so much fear.

 

I don't care if Russia has been invaded from the west in the past. Germany twice in the 20th century; France in the 19th century; and Sweden in the 18th century:

Russia sees itself as vulnerable, particularly from the west, where the most dangerous threats have historically originated. Belarus and Ukraine are the heart of Russian fears. The Ukrainian border is only a few hundred miles from Moscow and is therefore a major threat when in the hands of enemies.

So what? We're supposed to validate this paranoia by treating it as reasonable? Sure, understand their paranoia. But only for the purpose of dealing with a paranoid Russia--not for catering to it. No amount of buffer territory will end that kind of paranoia. I mean, seriously, Russia?

Vladimir Putin stressed that the responsibility [for the Ukraine crisis] should not be shifted onto the shoulders of Russia, since it is NATO that is making dangerous attempts to conquer Ukrainian territory and is building up its military potential at our borders," the Kremlin statement said. 

The Russians shouldn't be allowed near sharp objects. That take on responsibility is sheer lunacy! What is their major malfunction?

Russia really needs a beating with the clue bat. Regardless of their past actions, today the Swedes, French, and Germans are practically toothless. They have no capacity or appetite for biting into such a large carcass as Russia. I don't buy the justification for Russian paranoia that at any minute the Western Europeans will rouse themselves from their torpor and arm up to conquer Holy Mother Russia.

What little NATO has done was provoked by Russian actions (and insane nuclear rhetoric):

Only in 2010 did Nato, belatedly, change its strategic concept to include the defence of its eastern members. That followed a cyberattack on Estonia in 2007, the war in Georgia in 2008 and a menacing military exercise in 2009 in which Russia rehearsed an attack on the Baltic states and a nuclear strike on Warsaw.

Even then Nato’s response was mainly on paper. Only Russia’s attack on Ukraine in 2014 eventually prompted the deployment of small tripwire forces in Estonia (led by a British contingent), Latvia, Lithuania and Poland.

This is exactly right:

We should tell Putin that his complaints are nonsense. Instead, we negotiate with ourselves about how to appease him.

Russia is fairly weak in conventional military power considering its huge borders. And I honestly wonder if many of Russia's nuclear weapons work. We don't have to surrender or give ground to every Russian threat.

We should tell Russia that the West will conduct mutually beneficial trade if the Russians play nice with other children. Flipping to the West would benefit Russia. And be good for the West.

But if Russia does not act responsibly, the West will help whoever Russia invades so they can kill Russian troops; and will sanction Russia until it contracts to the Grand Duchy of Moscow. 

And then Putin will say "I knew they were out to get us!"

#WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings 

UPDATE: The Russian government certainly isn't bracing their people for a large war:

Russian media content targeting the domestic audience predominantly portrayed the idea of a Russian military operation in Ukraine as “Western hysteria” (Gazeta.ru, December 6). Similarly, Russian officials dismissed any concern about a potential armed invasion into Ukraine, pointing out that Russia had the right to deploy its military forces anywhere on its territory (Kommersant.ru, November 22). 

Sure, Putin claims much or all of Ukraine is actually Russian territory. But that legal fiction doesn't prepare Russians for body bags flowing back home.

UPDATE: Ukraine can inflict significant casualties on the Russians even if NATO doesn't intervene because "Ukrainian Armed Forces are far better trained, equipped and resourced, and are more motivated than they were in 2014[.]"

UPDATE: Will Biden throw Ukraine under the bus to get peace for our time?

The Kremlin said Thursday that Russia submitted draft documents outlining security arrangements it wants to negotiate with the United States and its NATO allies amid s piraling tensions over Ukraine.

Tensions Russia created, I should note. It's worth a shot (from my last data dump):

Frenemies. With Temporary Benefits

Russia and China are not allies. They just have more immediate targets. For now.

That's not a sound basis for alliance:

A big supporter of Russian aggression is China. In large part this is because China is also an empire trying to reclaim lost territories. That some of those territories are currently Russia’s Far East (areas bordering the Pacific) is not officially discussed in Russia or China but is no secret to many Russians and Chinese. That is a problem for another day as currently Russia and China support each other’s imperial ambitions in Ukraine and the South China Sea and help each other out to deal with any associated problems, especially the UN or economic sanctions. 

That is, China likes Russian power focused on NATO, far from Asia. Which keeps some American power in Europe. And if war breaks out between NATO and Russia, America and Russia are weakened. Making it easier for China to get its objectives in the Pacific and in Russia's Far East.

And Russia likes Chinese power focused on the sea, away from Russia's Far East. Ideally America and China go to war and seriously weaken each other. That would secure the Far East and make it easier to regain the empire in eastern Europe.

Each country's focus allows them to warily turn their backs on each other. But no trust is involved.

Russia essentially aimed China at America. But Russia's usefulness to China as a fire sale for Soviet technology is running out.

And I think Russia is loudly aggressive toward NATO in part to hide Russia's appeasement of China to secure its Far East while Russia tries to move past post-Soviet Russian weakness.

But Russia has fewer than five more years of that ceasefire. 

So who strikes first? And "striking" could mean Russia getting its head out of its national butt and defecting to the West's side. 

What could Russia possibly gain from alienating NATO by invading Ukraine when China looms over Russia?

UPDATE: Highly related:

The traditional Chinese name for their country is Zhongguo, which is usually translated into English as “middle kingdom”. But a more literal and accurate translation is “everything under the heavens.” Until the 21st century this mainly meant adjacent land areas. But now China points out that “everything” means the South China Sea, portions of India and the Russian Pacific Coastal region. The Zhongguo tradition also means China does not have allies, just powerful trading partners (the West in general) and client states like North Korea, Pakistan and others who deny the status, like Russia. That has always been the Chinese outlook and it hasn’t changed. 

How long will China let Russia remain in a state of denial?

The Northern Plights

North Korea can kill. But it is past its prime when it could win. 

North Korea's army is starving:

The growing number of North Korean soldiers sent to the Chinese border to increase security have become a threat to civilians living nearby. ...

This breakdown in security and discipline throughout North Korea has been going on for over a decade. That trend accelerated in the last two years because of escalating food shortages. It has reached levels of hunger and privation not seen since the 1990s famine that killed about ten percent of the population.

This deterioration means that options to reduce North Korea's ability to kill with nukes increase. To hunt down North Korean nuclear weapons, "the U.S. has changed the composition of its small force to include an attack helicopter brigade and more artillery units." 

Unless the North Koreans put short-range nukes close to the DMZ, this implies South Korean and American ground forces are heading north in case of war on a broader front than I earlier suspected. 

I assume that's what an updated operational war plan will address:

At their annual Security Consultative Meeting in Seoul on Thursday, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Republic of Korea Defense Minister Suh Wook will announce new strategic planning guidance “to start the process of developing a new operational war plan,” said one of the officials, who briefed reporters traveling with Austin to Seoul.

“The DPRK has advanced its capabilities. The strategic environment has changed over the past few years,” the official said. “It’s appropriate and necessary that we have an OPLAN that is updated.”

Just as significant as North Korean nuclear progress, North Korea's conventional capabilities have rotted away. I'm only joking a bit when I've noted:

If the South Korean army completely collapses in the face of a North Korean ground invasion, the North Korean advance will grind to a halt as 13th-century poverty-stricken peasant soldiers of the North Korean army stumble into the ruins of a 21st century fairy tale stocked with consumer goods and Choco-pies that will still be more appealing than a new gray apartment building back home.

Especially since North Korea's war reserve food supplies may not exist. Did the fall harvest allow Pyongyang to rebuilt that reserve?

But we've been moving away from desperate defense to save Seoul to operating north of the DMZ for a while. Indeed, I noted the look north in 2003 (find "operational plan" in the massive recovered "post").

Weekend Data Dump

This is where our limited shipbuilding money is going: "A ship, especially a warship that has a lot of problems, is often referred to as a cursed ship. The USS Ford, the first of the class, has become a major disaster rather than a more effective new ship design. The number and severity of problems are certainly cursed at often enough by those who built or now serve on the Ford. It was not supposed to be that way." But you know how I feel about even a perfectly working Ford.

When GPS is down.

Ambitious: "Classified American intelligence reports suggest China intends to establish its first permanent military presence on the Atlantic Ocean in the tiny Central African country of Equatorial Guinea, according to U.S. officials." American bases tend to be where we support allies. China's base is more peacetime presence.

This is the most amazing fluffing of Kim Jong-Un that I've ever read. North Korea's nukes are primitive and it doesn't have ICBMs. And North Korea's conventional military is rotting away. Although I admit that the editor's choice of headline is far more misleading than the article's assessment--overly optimistic about North Korea's capabilities though it is.

Tar. Feathers. Bankruptcy. Tip to Instapundit.

I thought the UAE decision to buy French Rafale fighters was a matter of the UAE coming to its senses about what it needs to fight Iran. But apparently the UAE still wants the F-35. Unless we develop a stripped down special export version without sensitive technology that is not electronically linked, I would not sell F-35s to the UAE.

This abandonment of work is kind of horrifying, but the fact that a majority of people in developed countries--which were made developed by capitalism--think capitalism "does more harm than good" is a failure of our education, leadership, and society rather than a problem of free market capitalism. The left likes to claim freedom from work will unleash poets and artists. But it will just unleash Doritos and living in Meta's fantasy world while some imported laborer wipes away the drool of the couch-blob. Via Instapundit.

Plan B: "Russian President Vladimir Putin lauded India as 'a great power' on Monday as he arrived in New Delhi to bolster military and energy ties with a traditional ally being courted by Washington." Russia needs to keep India friendly for the time Russia needs to pivot to confront China. Also, it would be sheer idiocy for America to sanction India for buying Russian weapons that will face China. Never underestimate the damage Smart Diplomacy® can inflict.

Their residents are getting exactly what they voted for. What's the problem? "Usually at this time of year, San Francisco’s luxury stores are decked with holiday garlands. Instead, they’re boarded up after widespread 'flash mob' looting turned Union Square — the city’s most fashionable shopping district — into an area resembling a blighted neighborhood in Detroit." But give Detroit some credit for not putting up with this BS now. Tip to Instapundit.

I assume that is true: " Several U.S. defense leaders said Saturday they are worried that a confrontation with China over Taiwan would lead to a wave of significant cyberattacks against U.S. critical infrastructure that could disrupt day-to-day life." I think such attacks on America, Japan, and Europeans would occur before America intervenes in order to deter America with a brief shot across the bow: "The message to the West will be look at Taiwan and what we can do and look at how we penetrated your security. Don't mess with us."

Ukraine expresses its confidence in fighting Russia. But it is horrifying that Kharkiv is a major source of Ukrainian weapons. If Russia wants a very geographically limited war, capturing Kharkov would be a prime objective.

Japan is a serious (number five) military power. Russia is second only because of nukes. And if those don't work, ranking fourth might be generous. Neighbors should not worry given the small Japanese army, geared for home defense.

Omicron is the man cold liberal Xi Jinping Flu variant:

 

Via Instapundit, A one-in-a-million shot, doc! I've mentioned precision mortar rounds. But I had no idea of the advances in accuracy. Duck and cover, dude. Duck and cover. [Although the 57mm size confused me. It should be 60mm if a mortar round. Later I read it was an anti-tank round. Which makes sense.]

Of course the media lies for Democrats. They're just proud of it, now. I dumped CBS in early 1984 when they lied about the economy to hurt Reagan. I moved to NBC and then ABC. Then I went to cable. It wasn't until 2004 that I finally dumped CNN and MSNBC over their war coverage, even though I knew they were biased well before then. It got too much. Now--for 15 months--I avoid television news because it has all gotten so toxic, even if some of it is reacting to the other side's toxicity.

The United States won't send a delegation to the Chinese winter Olympics. After Tibet, Xinjiang, Hong Kong, the Xi Jinping Flu, and general human rights violations and aggressive behavior toward neighbors, the saga of a Chinese tennis player finally broke the camel's back. But not enough to boycott the Olympics themselves.

Missile defense in Alaska: "The U.S. Missile Defense Agency has finished installing radar arrays and wrapped up military construction for the Long-Range Discrimination Radar (LRDR)." And for space domain awareness, too.

It's about time Hispanic people treat the woke-created "Latinx" as the N-word.

The sun's energy output has an effect on Earth's climate? Who knew? But it is just a model. Tip to Instapundit.

Will destroying Turkey's currency destroy Erdogan's neo-Ottoman ambitions?

Build Bottlenecks Better? Tip to Instapundit.

Is an Israeli strike campaign on Iran's nuclear facilities their Plan B if they can't help the many enemies of the mullah regime overthrow the regime?

I had some hopes that our SSN fleet could carry the load of battle while our surface Navy fixes itself (and while the carriers stay out of the way lest they get sunk). Well, we're screwed. 

An American no first use nuclear policy closes the nuclear umbrella over our allies and exposes them to conventional attack and conquest. If Biden "restores our international relations" as he promised any more they will be walking funny for a month.

China matters less to the global economy: "Should, for example, its campaign to reduce massive corporate debts, particularly in the property sector, end in a meltdown, the effects will be global and inescapable. But lesser tremors may no longer be so consequential. It may be that when China stumbles, the world no longer falls with it."

Good: "Israel on Tuesday announced the completion of an enhanced security barrier around the Gaza Strip designed to prevent militants from sneaking into the country."

Australia is stepping up: "Australia and Papua New Guinea have completed first steps and begun major refurbishment of a navy base built by U.S. forces on Manus Island, Papua New Guinea, during World War II." I think I mentioned this but it bears repeating.

China's flights into Taiwan's air defense identification zone looks like practice for war. I certainly thought the flights looked like practice aerial interdiction of Pratas Island to isolate it from Taiwanese reinforcements or air operations should China attack the island.

From the Missing the Forest Because of the Trees files: "EXPLAINER: What's behind Russia-Ukraine tensions?" Um, because Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014, captured Ukrainian territory, and continues to wage war on Ukraine?" An "Explainer," indeed. Don't over-complicate this.

The Japanese and Americans practice for the Battle for the Senkaku Islands.

The only question is what leftist group faked the so-called Patriot Front demonstration. The demand for hate exceeds the demand.

If Biden wants to warn Putin against invading Ukraine (again), maybe he should hand Putin another list--of countries Putin can't invade in Europe. It's called NATO. And maybe quietly warn Putin that his actions make Ukrainian inclusion on that list more rather than less likely.

I repeat my old offering to get around the nonsense of banning "Christmas" office parties by offering you the acronym C.H.R.I.S.T.M.A.S. You're welcome. At my last job I was lauded for it but nobody dared use it.

Ethiopia. Ethnic groups. And the government military is doing better than the media stories make it look.

I do worry that America is bolstering Hezbollah even as we think we are bolstering the ability of the Lebanese government to resist Hezbollah. Are the French exploiting our appeasement of Iran in Lebanon?

Well: "Presidents Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden set out their opposing positions on Ukraine in a video call on Tuesday and agreed that Russia and the United States should keep talking, the Kremlin said." [My apologies for the typo in the cartoon. I meant "What if" and not "What of". Oops. And then the shame pushed me to fix it.]

As I've long advocated, the Ukrainian defense minister understands Russia's weakness: "The human cost for Ukraine would be catastrophic, but Ukrainians would not mourn alone. Russia would also suffer massive losses. Images of coffins returning to Russia from the front lines in Ukraine would spread like a virus across social media and would soon prove too much for even the Kremlin censors to contain." Putin's Russia is no Stalin's Russia. Their weakness should not be a mystery.

Regardless of the short-term results of the Ukraine crisis, Ukraine needs to defeat corruption to be strong enough to defeat Russia.

If this report is true, the only difference between America and China is the scale of abuse by the ruling party. If the Chinese Communist Party starts using this in its propaganda to deflect from its multi-generation genocide of the Uighurs and Tibetans, don't say we weren't warned.

Flaming Christmas tree. Well, the tree was dressed all slutty twinkly. Probably deserved it. Tip to Treacher.

Acceptable collateral damage: "With the demand for nickel [to build electric cars] skyrocketing, the Rio Tuba mine is now on the brink of expanding deeper into the rainforest, adding almost 10 square miles to its current footprint. Local environmentalists fear that it will wipe out the forest’s fragile ecosystem ... ." I've long said I suspect electric cars have a higher carbon footprint than ICE cars measured over the life from production to disposal. Tip to Treacher.

Does Russia have the logistics to support a deep or lengthy campaign inside Ukraine?

Perhaps Ms. Erin Aubry Kaplan should build a separate but equal Little Free Library just for white people. She says she didn't dislike the couple personally--but naturally disliked them because of their whiteness. The new anti-racism looks suspiciously like the old racism. 

I certainly hope this is a worst-case outlook and that more cautious decisions will be made. But check ammo and double the guard just in case.

David Brooks is just goodlife for the woke, now. Seriously, he must be suffering from a head wound to argue that voting for today's woke Democrats is the best defense of conservatism.

It's a strange white supremacy, indeed. Tip to Instapundit.

Let's hope neither Xi nor Putin (via Instapundit) sees domestic problems as a reason to start a "short and glorious war" to shore up their rule. We can look forward to elections to solve leadership problems. Xi and Putin know that pressure release doesn't exist in their countries. Putin's pandemic problem will at least end regardless of what he does. What about Xi's economic problem? And grant me that it is justice that Russian propaganda designed to undermine the West inflicted collateral damage at home.

How is this different from cultural ethnic cleansing? The question is rhetorical, of course. Tip to Instapundit.

Once again, I'll remind you that it is a crime against grammar to think "liberal minded" is a synonym for "open minded." But yeah, keep blaming our divisions on conservatives.

Iran is why the Yemen war can't be "ended" despite the Biden administration's efforts. 

Syria was basically Russia's Spanish Civil War 2.0 for providing its military with combat experience and for testing weapons.

Wait. Is this the secret weapon to shrink the federal government? "Joe Biden will order the federal government to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050." Tip to Instapundit.

If Russia invades Ukraine, America's initial ground response to eastern NATO countries could be a an airborne, Stryker, and armored brigade, backed by artillery and helicopters. I suppose you would be able to tell if this is a diplomatic signal if the units are spread out from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea rather than massed.

Via PJ Media, murder capital title still up for grabs: "At least 12 major U.S. cities have broken annual homicide records in 2021 -- and there's still three weeks to go in the year."

Basically, the American troops in Iraq will not be called combat troops by the end of this year. After Afghanistan 2021 and Iraq 2011, I don't think even the Biden administration is foolish enough to actually withdraw our troops from Iraq (again) where they help Iraqi troops kill jihadis every day and keep an eye on Iran.

Would Russia try to control all of the Black Sea coast of Ukraine to link up with Moldova, where Russia still keeps hope alive hope for regaining that corner of the former Soviet empire?

I'm going to guess that Putin is bluffing an invasion of Ukraine in order to get Biden to bless the Nordstream 2 Baltic Sea pipeline that will increase Russia's ability to freeze Ukraine without cutting off natural gas to NATO Europe. But it will be portrayed as a great victory for Smart Diplomacy®. God help us, but the Biden people might actually believe they engineered a victory over Russia.

Bangladeshis are lured to Libya where they become slaves. Please alert the 1619 Project.

The British evacuation from Kabul mirrored the American mission in its apparent priority for numbers of people evacuated rather than looking for and prioritizing getting friends out.

The American Atlantic fleet commander vowed "we will own the Atlantic[.]" Well, the Chinese are still far away and the Russian blue water fleet is a dead man walking.

Good. But I wonder what percentage of Iranian weapons we actually manage to intercept before they reach Yemen.

America is shipping Javelin anti-tank weapons to Ukraine. Good. Although I think it is a sign that we believe Russia won't invade. Otherwise we might not have done something so "provocative".

Yes: "'Without question, bolstering Taiwan's self-defenses is an urgent task and an essential feature of deterrence,' U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Ely Ratner told a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing." And he said don't focus on a year for when China is a threat because it is now.

The Marines are willing to shrink the force to get Light Amphibious Warships to move company-sized anti-ship elements of Marines around. I'm unhappy with the LAW concept and would like to see amphibious planes supplement better ships.

I know a number of Republicans don't like Trump. I can understand that. Truly. But it can't really be possible for them to say Biden was a better choice--or, God help us, Hillary!--can they? And you know what? I don't believe Clinton read the text of her victory speech that existed on election night. She's plotting something and not (only) wallowing in her well-deserved misery. Tip to Treacher.

Governor Newsom says that if Roe v. Wade is overturned that California will pay to bring women to California to get abortions. I have no problem with that. That's what a federal system allows. And if California voters are fine with using their taxes for this, who am I to complain on their behalf? Heck, California already pays to attract criminals, the homeless, and illegal aliens. Bounce the woke rubble.

I refuse to have an Internet of things. Via Instapundit.

Why isn't being convicted of orchestrating a fake hate crime an actual hate crime itself?

The problem of having deadly enemies inside a country with higher priorities than fighting those deadly enemies.

How can Democrats and their media allies say conservatives don't care about the January 6th riot? I was horrified. About the riot. But then the Democrats started calling a brief riot an "insurrection." Which is stupid, as my updates began to convey. The most well armed segment of the population took zero firearms to their "insurrection?" So yeah, I reject calling January 6th an "insurrection." And I'm mad at Democrats for this charade (with a nod to the simulation for the player's number).

This warning not to panic about China by assuming strength without weaknesses is correct. But I don't worry China will replace America as a global power. I worry their power could dominate within 500 miles of China's shores--which would cripple our power in the western Pacific by potentially destroying our allies. And this is an excellent point: "And we need to remember that Beijing spends as much on internal security as on external defence, which should tell us a lot." But while that is true and significant, it is a little bit misleading.

Ukraine's troop morale seems good. But it isn't totally fair to say Ukraine is short on weaponry. It is absolutely true that Ukraine lacks air defenses and naval forces. Ukraine is much smaller than Russia. But Ukraine can fight hard. And Russian air power probably won't be as effective as feared all across the front as the fight drags on. If Ukraine wants to correct its problems it needs to defeat corruption so it isn't just a smaller version of corrupt Russia.

The Great Woke Hope failed spectacularly. And turned out to be old hates dressed up as love. Yet somehow the Left thought this would all work.

The Army is thinking about an Arctic brigade combat team for operating and surviving in extreme cold. Wait. What? Isn't the Arctic warming and melting?

Member of NATO don't need to wait for NATO to act to take action: "The Czech government approved a plan Wednesday to deploy 150 service members in Poland to help guard the border with Belarus."

Star "wars." Let's hope our sun remains exceptionally inactive until we can endure these events. Via Instapundit. 

Finland wants the F-35. I guessed Finland would want the Swedish fighter. Sometimes I wonder if countries under threat want the F-35 to make sure America intervenes in their defense to prevent enemies from getting their hands on the plane.

While Putin may win a concession from America without the intent to invade, I don't think it is fair to say Biden threatened only sanctions if Putin invades Ukraine. As I noted in the first update in this post, Biden seemingly limited our reaction to sanctions for anything short of a Russian invasion of all Ukraine. I don't think Putin includes that in his options. So the Biden threat may be meaningless. But triggering military responses might depend on definitions. Tip to Instapundit.

Artificial intelligence can apparently confidently ef up based on poor intelligence data at lightning speeds. 

Our media is garbage and employs garbage people.

It's hard to argue he's wrong: "And progressives—I count myself as one of them—do ruin cities. Or, at least, they put in place policies that cause profound harm to the people living in them." Tip to Instapundit.

Ukraine has too few Javelin missiles to be a significant weapon in a war. The missile was useful to deter escalation in the "frozen" conflict on the Donbas low-level war of attrition. We should be sending more and training Ukrainians to use them.

Don't be silly, it was never REAL communism. Remember that the war initially looked like a stalemate in defense of a poor autocracy. It took time to become a victory of democracy and free enterprise:

Have a ball: "Since early 2021 Russia has been visibly improving its Tartus naval base and nearby Hmeimim airbase." This is just for justifying Russia's conquest of Crimea. I'm not sure what the point is. Russia wastes money away from the Baltic region and gives Mediterranean NATO states something to do in a war.

21st century America: The left can only hear "dog whistle racism" so must resort to making up hate. Who believes any of that crap any more? Certainly all the illegal aliens don't.

It sure is starting to look like Putin is trying to extort concessions from NATO with his threats to invade Ukraine: "Russian President Vladimir Putin has urged the West to provide guarantees that would preclude NATO from expanding to Ukraine or deploying troops and weapons there. Putin brought it up during a video call with U.S. President Joe Biden this week." Does Putin know he is too weak to win a war or does he want to increase his low chances of victory by getting the element of surprise?  Also, stuff happens.

In theory this kind of thinking big to deter China from invading Taiwan sounds reasonable. In the real world almost none of the world even recognizes Taiwan as a country. The UN sure doesn't. And the UN has failed to deter aggressors since its creation.  But I'm to believe the world would give up benefits of trade with China for years or decades to punish China for capturing Taiwan? That just isn't credible.

Is Biden getting ready to throw our eastern NATO members under the bus for "peace for our time"? Putin may get a free advantage in Ukraine and a bonus fracture inside NATO because of Biden's Smart Diplomacy.® Heck, will Biden throw Ukraine under the bus in a play to get an empty Nobel Peace Prize? 

Fear is the beginning of wisdom: "As Violence Arrives in Rich Neighborhoods, Liberals And Ex-Radicals Buy Guns And Mobilize To Oust Progressive D.A.s[.]" It's all fun and games until the effects can't be dismissed as Fox News propaganda. Ah, the clarity of experiencing what you inflicted on the poor in distant neighborhoods you never saw. Tip to Instapundit. And to repeat:

Effing Russians: "Moscow denies planning to attack Ukraine and accuses Kyiv of its own allegedly aggressive designs." Yeah, those Ukrainian bastards might want to retake some of the land Russia stole from Ukraine in 2014. Not that I'd want to go to war with Russia over Ukraine. But I would supply Ukraine with what it needs to send body bags back to Russia on a scale sufficient to make Putin's life Hell.

I have no idea who Oliver Darcy is. But he may be a moron.

People on the left imagine they figuratively escort minority school children into the schools. But they have become enamored of the Twitter Red Guards who send people to toil in the rice paddies: "When 'the left' becomes the party of wealthy elites and state security agencies who preach racial division, state censorship, contempt for ordinary citizens and for the U.S. Constitution, and telling people what to do and think at every turn, then that’s the side you are on, if you are 'on the left'—those are the policies and beliefs you stand for and have to defend." The left isn't "cancelling" awful people. The left became awful and are cancelling decent people. I've long noticed that. More people are noticing.

"Warning": "The G7 on Sunday said time was running out for Iran to agree a deal to curb its nuclear ambitions[.]" In practice, the G7 is adopting another policy:

We're gonna need lots of Doritos. Tip to Instapundit.

When people stop pretending they have a currency. Our government leaders seem to appreciate this less than their leaders.

When money is on the line, the truth leaks out: "In its response to Stossel’s defamation claim, Facebook responds on Page 2, Line 8 in the court document (download it below) that Facebook cannot be sued for defamation (which is making a false and harmful assertion) because its ‘fact checks’ are mere statements of opinion rather than factual assertions." [emphasis in original]. Via Instapundit.

Sadly, Army lost to Navy in their football showdown. Congratulations Navy.

I've been debating whether to get a booster shot given the apparent harmlessness of the rapidly spreading Omicron variant. I'm scheduled. Isn't it safer to get the Xi Jinping Flu now? Omicron blows past the vaccine. But I'm technically in the more dangerous group despite my good health. And I survived the initial vaccine. Perhaps it is best to get the booster despite this variant to make the Omicron infection too weak to hurt me? All I know for sure is that I can't trust my doctor to give me honest advice on the risks.

The media template has long been clear. If there is a racist hate crime, all Republicans are at fault for the crime; but when a racist hate crime is shown to be a fraud. all Republicans are at fault for noting that fraud. Also, the media wonders why only Democrats trust them at all. Or they don't wonder and simply enjoy the profit from preaching to the choir.