What is China doing with its very large and persistent aerial missions into Taiwan's air defense identification zone? Is this a prelude to some type of Chinese military action?
The Chinese Communist Party says that Taiwan is "an evil force the mainland must crush." (Via Instapundit.)
The curtain of preparations for a comprehensive military struggle by the Chinese mainland has obviously been drawn open. The PLA’s military drills in the Taiwan Straits are no longer limited to declaring China’s sovereignty over the island, but to implement various forms of assembly, mobilization, assault and logistical preparations that are required to take back the island of Taiwan. Without giving up efforts for a peaceful reunification, it has increasingly become the new mainstream public opinion on the Chinese mainland that the mainland should make earnest preparations based on the possibility of combat.
The Chinese military flew 16 warplanes over waters south of Taiwan on Sunday as the United States expressed concern about what it called China’s “provocative military action” near the self-governing island that China claims.
China sent 38 warplanes into the area on Friday and 39 aircraft on Saturday, the most in a single day since Taiwan began releasing reports on the flights in September 2020.
Does this bellicose language and display of aerial might telegraph a major attack on Taiwan by whipping up the Chinese people to support an attack?
Or is this simply a means of distracting with nationalist rage the Chinese from mass and seemingly random power outages?
Or is it a matter of appearing near Taiwan when actually far because China plans to assault someone else? Could Japan, the Philippines, Vietnam, or even Russia be the target for actual military action?
Or maybe it will be Taiwan's small Pratas Island? That's my bet if China intends to fight for something. A small, easily isolated Taiwanese island unlikely to hold out long enough to tempt America to intervene.
A live-fire training exercise, really. With political gains if it works out cleanly. And China's recent air shows of force south of Taiwan might be practicing an aerial interdiction of Pratas to prevent reinforcements or interference by Taiwanese air power.
China is making a lot of military noise. What is the message behind it?
UPDATE: It's getting twitchy out there. Two American and one British carrier, plus a Japanese aviation vessel with U.S. Marine F-35Bs are exercising in the region; the Taiwanese vow to defend themselves; and America expresses its concern and disapproval of China's aerial show of force.
Adjust your pucker factor accordingly.
UPDATE: The Taiwanese really do seem to be taking the latest Chinese threats very seriously:
Taiwan's Foreign Minister warns his nation is preparing for war with China and urges Australia to increase intelligence sharing and security cooperation as Beijing intensifies a campaign of military intimidation.
Tip to HotAir, via Instapundit.
UPDATE: I agree that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan now is unlikely. The information that weather restricts invasions to April or October is interesting. Does it really "restrict it to" or is it "much easier for" those months? As for China needing up to 2 million troops to successfully invade? I think that is BS. I assume it is based on looking at Taiwan's active and reserve ground force and mis-using the 3:1 rule to reach the figure. Remember, Germany crushed the opposing forces to conquer France in a lightning campaign with about the same number of troops committed. Tip to Instapundit.
UPDATE: Related thoughts.
