Friday, October 22, 2021

Smash, Grab, Hold, Talk, Hold

We shouldn't be talking to Russia over Ukraine. We should be punishing Russia and helping Ukraine bleed Russia for occupying Ukrainian territory. 


Negotiations with Russia over Ukraine seem counterproductive to me: 

The best we can say about the recent visits of U.S. Undersecretary of State Victoria Nuland to Moscow with top European officials Ursula von der Leyen and Charles Michel to Kyiv was that these high-level meetings ensured the status quo in the longstanding Russia-Ukraine conflict.

The talks ensure the status quo? That's BS. Putin would conquer Ukraine if his military was good enough and if he had the money. The talks don't restrain Russia. The talks preserve Russia's gains. 

Further, this is no misunderstanding that can be solved by splitting the difference. Russia invaded and dismembered Ukraine in 2014 and continues to kill Ukrainian troops. Russia annexed Crimea and occupies eastern Donbas via hand puppet proxies masquerading as separatists. 

The only good news is that a lot of people in the Donbas may now be sick of their wish to be ruled by Russia. Crimeans might not be as happy, either. Getting what you wish can be a learning experience.

My view is that the best thing Ukraine can do is dramatically reduce corruption so Ukraine isn't just a smaller and weaker version of corrupt Russia

Also, Ukraine should charge Russia rent for sitting in Crimea. Unleash the lawyers on Russia and individual Russian leaders behind the invasion or companies profiting from the conquest.

Indeed, the eastern Donbas might be so wrecked by now under Russia's de facto rule that Ukraine should demand concessions from Russia to take it back.

As a deterrent against further Russian aggression, I think Ukraine should increase their ability to wreck the Sevastopol base complex:

Ukraine should strengthen their defenses across from Crimea in the narrow isthmus and behind that shield deploy artillery to bombard the Russian troops who hold that neck. Let's see if Russia can do a better job of knocking out rockets and artillery than Israel has when up against Hamas or Hezbollah.

Ukraine should gather up and deploy--with air defenses to protect them--long range missiles to strike Russia's Sevastopol base--the big prize of Russia's Crimea conquest.

After those measures are taken, talks might be good to ensure the status quo in Ukraine's favor.