Weekend Data Dump

NOTE: Oops. I posted this a day early.

FFS: "A first group of six Ukrainian pilots is not expected to complete training on the U.S.-made F-16 before next summer, senior Ukrainian government and military officials said[.]" This kind of peacetime thumb-up-your-ass complacency is unacceptable. We could have jump started this a long time ago.

Red Flag adapts to the "pacing" threat: "One of the U.S. Air Force’s largest combat training exercises this summer focused on an expanded battlefield to prepare for threats posed by China and North Korea, a training officer said recently."

The good NATO news: "Germany will own NATO's second largest helicopter fleet with the 60 Chinooks it announced it was buying last month, German Air Force Chief Ingo Gerhartz was quoted as saying on Friday." The bad NATO news: Germany will be able to airlift its entire tiny army.

Hell, I welcome nearly-disarmed New Zealand's realization that it needs a defense strategy and force design principles. 

Good Lord, how high will the final casualty count be? "The death toll in Maui, Hawaii has reached 93 as the devastating wildfires become the deadliest in US modern history."

China has long had a problem of whether it would grow old before it grows rich. That is, can it afford to take care of its growing legions of the elderly. Recent trends and data seem to make that problem more real. We also can see that the Wuhan Flu Covid-19 virus--engineered in a Wuhan, China bio lab--is mostly lethal to the elderly. I assume I'm late to the game in noting this. But I don't visit the wilder parts of the Internet. And I may have raised this before. But is it out of line to wonder if the Chinese Communist Party was working on a virus to "solve" that problem of taking care of the elderly with too few working-age people by getting rid of the elderly and blaming it on nature? After all, securing CCP rule is the highest priority of the CCP. You might have to break millions of already cracked eggs for that lovely monopoly of state power omelet.

Endorsed. Trump was screwed in 2020 by a host of factors and actors, unfairly demonized from 2016 to ... well, now. But the important part going forward is not validating that Trump was screwed and how badly he was demonized. If he's nominated, I'll vote for him. But he is getting old. And he already changed the terms of debate. That may be his most important achievement. If he is the Republican nominee I fear he'll just be a two-time martyr when the election is done. The important part now isn't compensating Trump for 2020. The important part is winning in 2024. And I think the unfair demonization of Trump has alienated him from the vast middle of the electorate. That's jarringly unfair. But it is the reality. If Trump can't see the promised land, so be it. Tip to Instapundit.

Early in the Winter War of 2022, this metric was used by some opposed to sanctioning Russia to prove that Western sanctions weren't working: "The Russian ruble has reached its lowest value since the early weeks of the war in Ukraine as Western sanctions weigh on energy exports and weaken demand for the national currency." My definition of "working" has always been to make things harder for Russia--not to win on its own.

Ukraine could still succeed without air superiority. My view is that if you have good ground-based fire support, that is sufficient as long as you at least nullify the enemy air force. Mind you, air superiority is great if you get it. And we do rely on it to make up for less artillery than Russia uses, for example.

“Yes, kid, I’m afraid it is.”

We're from the government and we're here to help.  

Please form an orderly line to show me on the doll where Joe Biden touched you. Tip to Instapundit.

A very futuristic idea! I give it a month--six weeks, tops--before every one of them has their tires removed and they're being used as homeless pods on the city's sidewalks. Tip to Instapundit.

Remainers said the 2016 Brexit vote would permanently settle the issue. Until they lost. I believe the issue will only be finally settled if Remainers manage to get another vote and win it.

Putin hates Ukraine's anti-corruption efforts. Ukrainian corruption allowed Russia to dominate the country until the 2014 revolution. I should correct my prior statement that failing to eliminate corruption just dooms Ukraine to being a weaker version of larger corrupt Russia. I should say that at best that is the result. Although I did recognize that. Of course, Russian corruption isn't making Putin's war any easier.

Actual Resistance to a tyrant. It probably won't make a difference. But who knows?

Did Russia manage to smuggle or make modern optics to produce new tanks?

The Baltic Sea is not becoming "ground zero" of the Winter War of 2022. This is a land war. Ground zero is actual ground. The naval struggle may grow more important, but it will never be ground zero.

Another round of American military aid to Ukraine.

Israeli natural gas could go to Europe. If I recall correctly, Europeans shunned Israeli gas before Russia invaded Ukraine.

Small suicide drones: aerial snipers.

New vaccine for Eris variant of Covid-19. Not many are expected to get it. Perhaps our public health and medical establishments forfeited their credibility by misleading us on Covid issues, eh? I might have gotten it except that I started with Johnson and Johnson. That's out and I'd rather not start a new type with unknown side effects. And I did survive a mild infection of Covid. I'm still healthy. I expect I'd survive another. Your mileage may vary. Tip to Instapundit.

And it works against China, too: "The United States, Japan and South Korea are expected to announce plans for expanded military cooperation on ballistic missile defenses and technology development in the face of growing concern about North Korea’s nuclear program[.]" China deserves this after using their little pet psycho to threaten us all these decades.

But this contradicts what the Democrats and the media constantly tell me! "A new report out of the University of Chicago shows that millions more people favor using violence to keep Donald Trump from the presidency than those who would use it to put him back in the Oval Office." Violence is okay. But nobody would rig and election to stop him? Tip to Instapundit.

Well, bomber-like planes with the right weapons: "Under a new proposal, Japanese C-2 planes would use the American Rapid Dragon system to quickly convert them from long-range transport jets into bombers. The postwar government banned bombers as weapons of aggressive warfare, but military pressure from its neighbors is pushing Tokyo to reconsider." Well, a peace constitution isn't a suicide pact.

But I was assured the victorious Taliban 2.0 was more enlightened than the original! "The Taliban view their rule of Afghanistan as open-ended, drawing legitimacy from Islamic law and facing no significant threat, their chief spokesman said in an interview marking the second anniversary of the Taliban takeover of the country. He also suggested a ban on female education will remain in place." Being on a Mission from God opens up lots of policy options.

Options against Iran's naval forces. I'm of the view that if Iran starts something at sea we should take the opportunity to sink everything of theirs that floats.

Reaction follows action: "Reality has set in on both sides of the Pacific with respect to Communist China. The Philippine Star is reporting that joint U.S.-Philippine coast guard patrols will take to the sea by year’s end."

Some people sure appear motivated to get Ukraine to lose their war against Russia's invasion. If Ukraine gets tired of fighting, believing that is not an acceptable cost, surely everyone will rethink their policies. But stop trying to help Russia win. 

Russia displays captured Western weapons, claiming Ukraine is running out. Question: Why does the British armored vehicle shown in the article have a desert paint job? Who knows how many of the weapons came from the current battlefields and how many came from Russia's lost-and-found bin? Indeed, how many came from Russia's 2008 war against Georgia?

That SOB isn't "cancelling" student debt. He's making other people pay the debts of student loan recipients who earned a degree! If you you get the product you should pay what you owe. Biden probably assumes he gets 10%. Let's go Brandon.

Hawaii: "The Pentagon put Army National Guard Brig. Gen. Stephen Logan in charge of a multi-pronged military response to the deadly Maui wildfires, synchronizing Guard and active duty troops as they ferry supplies, put out any new fires, or do anything else federal emergency responders ask."

Northern Strike exercises at Camp Grayling highlight the Michigan National Guard-Latvia partnership.

Is Somalia as a state not quite as hopeless as I think it is?

 9/11 terrorists in custody may not face death penalty. Dude, that was like 22 years ago! And if our government thinks it was fine to lose the war we launched after terrorists killed nearly 3,000 of us at home, why should the families of the victims care about the fate of the killers? Get over it. Biden did.

China's subliminal invasion of the South China Sea continues at Triton Island: "China appears to be constructing an airstrip on a disputed South China Sea island that is also claimed by Vietnam and Taiwan, according to satellite photos analyzed by The Associated Press."

Ten thousand Ukrainian civilians have died in the war. Not going to lie. I thought it would be much more. But the nature of the fighting--rapid overrunning of territory and people with little fighting followed by slow frontal assaults that allow time to withdraw civilians from the front--have reduced the toll.  Nor is there much of an insurgency behind Russian lines. Which I assume is deliberate to avoid needless deaths while Ukraine's army fights to liberate them.

Welp, Russia carried out the most brilliant information operation ever to undermine Ukrainian morale and sustain Russian morale. There isn't another explanation, is there? Please be a joke.

The Army's MRIC mobile Iron Dome. 

Russia is depleting its large open-air armored vehicle storage site (nearly 4,000 armored vehicles) in Siberia: "It was eventually noted that in early 2023 that 40 percent of the armored vehicles stored at Vagzhanovo had been removed after being refurbished enough to make them operational and sent to Russian forces in Ukraine." Every day more of Russia's dwindling military power is sucked west. That might be a problem for Russia.

America's bone yard: "Over 4,500 aircraft are stored at AMARC, and 500-2,000 spare parts orders are filled each month. Not just for American military aircraft, but for those of allies as well." Of course, concentrating all our old aircraft in one place in case of a world war relies on the continental United States being a sanctuary. That's an obsolete assumption.

Buh bye: "The US Navy officially decommissioned a warship with a reported cost of $362 million this week after less than five years of service. It was meant to serve for 25 years." I'd be fine with this if the ships were being put in the mothball fleet to be resurrected in war as expendable anti-ship vessels during a major naval war. The ship wouldn't have to live long to serve well. But the story says she will be put up for foreign sale. Unless that is disinformation. Fingers crossed. 

Has Putin ordered a repeat of the Bakhmut offensive at Kupiansk with 100,000 troops and 900 tanks and other weapons massed in the east? But without the prisoner cannon fodder? Can regular Russian army troops willing to advance with that kind of suicidal approach? 

DARPA looking at how to plan infrastructure on the Moon. Via Instapundit.

Ukraine requested more training for Abrams tank units until their new tanks arrive. At some level I assumed Ukraine would send experienced troops to the new units getting Western equipment. I made a major assumption failure. Perhaps the NATO view was that troops without experience in Soviet/Russian style combat would not have to be untrained before being trained. But that's not working in practice, it seems. But I'm open to that NATO view being right--just not right enough.

Putting the force in Space Force: "A new unit activated recently at Peterson Space Force Base, Colo., is the branch’s first-ever targeting squadron, designed to scope out adversary space capabilities and present options to the joint force on how to neutralize them."

The U.S. does not support the resistance the Taliban in Afghanistan. Why? "'The country was at war for 44 years,' the [State Department] spokesperson said. 'We do not want to see a return to conflict in Afghanistan and we hear from Afghans that they don’t either.' Odd how that aversion to conflict didn't break our until after we abandoned our Afghan allies and snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. So this attitude makes perfect sense: "The only reason Afghans aren’t standing up against the Taliban right now is the perception that the Taliban are supported by the U.S.[.]" Samefully--and against our interests--America decided to lose that war.

Will Niger's neighbors reverse the coup or accept it? "West African defense chiefs met Thursday to discuss the crisis in Niger after coup leaders there ignored their deadline to step down, leaving the region’s countries with few options in their effort to restore democratic rule."

The Hawaii fires were not caused by climate change. Human officials effed up. Tip to Instapundit. Carbon is the new Devil that can be blamed for everything. Like I said, Climate Change is a religion: "And last but not least, they have their Devil: Beelzecarbon. In all it's forms, seductive though it may be with air conditioning and all that." Now go and emit no more.

Water to fight a Hawaii fire was held back until it was too late to contain it because an official had concerns about ... equity. FFS, we're just too stupid to survive, aren't we? Tip to Instapundit.

Mali hoped booting the French out and bringing in Wagner would help the regime survive without uncomfortable questions about government corruption and authoritarian rule. Instead, Russia is sucking money out of Mali to fund its war on Ukraine while Mali shrivels and dies under jihadi pressure.

OUT: Claiming elections were stolen defends our democracy. IN: Claiming elections were stolen threaten our democracy. Tip to Instapundit.

Well that would make too much sense! "The Pentagon on Thursday reiterated its denial that US forces fighting the Islamic State group have moved to cut off the Iran-backed militias' access to a key border crossing between Iraq into Syria." If we do it will just be part of a choreographed pretend clash that a nuclear deal with Iran will "solve". All hail Smart Diplomacy® in action!

The Biden administration told young Russian men they could flee here rather than go to war in Ukraine. Welp: "The U.S. has deported nearly 190 Russians since the beginning of October 2022, almost three times as many as were removed during the entire prior year." They effed up. They trusted us. Truly, Smart Diplomacy® is friggin' awesome. 

While there is some reality related to the author's suggestion, it is strategically insane to deliberately put more crucial American industry in Taiwan close to China to ensure America will fight China to avoid losing that industry! Rather than deterring China it may induce China to invade to capture that vital industry. FFS. Strategery.

I can't say this is wrong: "The U.S. intelligence community assesses that Ukraine’s counteroffensive will fail to reach the key southeastern city of Melitopol, people familiar with the classified forecast told The Washington Post[.]" Still, the leak says Ukraine can push to withing "several miles" of the city. But where were these assessments before the counteroffensive started? We helped Ukraine wargame their options. Or this is disinformation to lull the Russians. Could go either way.

Biden's willing media accomplices. Fact-checkers need not apply.

Corruption exceeds compassion: "At least 1,400 people have starved to death in Ethiopia's northern Tigray since food aid was suspended because it was being stolen, an official has said." Good Lord ...

This just feels staged: "Iran's foreign minister met Saudi Arabia's de facto ruler on Friday during his first visit since the Middle East rivals announced a surprise rapprochement, officials said." What are they trying to achieve? I certainly don't believe there is any rapprochement involved.

Does Ukraine really have no path to victory? My choice of calling this war the Winter War of 2022 was a deliberate callback to the 1939-1940 Winter War between the USSR and Finland. Finland lost that war and had to give up significant territory. But the heavy casualties that Soviet troops endured may have deterred Stalin and future leaders from trying again. Finland was quietly cooperative with the USSR but was clearly Western in orientation. And with patience, Finland outlasted the USSR and is now a NATO state. I've raised this potential path for Ukraine to, if not victory, survival and eventual prosperity. Although it is clearly far from ideal and I don't want that to be Plan A. I don't rule out that Ukraine can yet push Russia's ground forces past the breaking point on some section of the front.

Is Russia's war on Ukraine giving China pause in thinking about invading Taiwan? I'm doubtful. I think China is learning it doesn't need to succeed as much as Russia has to conquer Taiwan.

I've already written that I think the real rigging of the 2020 election was 4 years of outrageous Democratic Party propaganda willingly amplified by the party's media auxiliary. So add in often-illegal laws that made it impossible to check mail ballots and then this claim--which I can't dismiss as nonsense--and you don't need government rigging. Tip to Instapundit.

Italy is upgrading its tanks and buying German tanks in order to meet NATO requirements to have 250 working tanks. Italy only had 50 working tanks when Russia invaded Ukraine.

I think a NATO escort mission to protect shipping to and from Ukraine is a bad idea. Better to help Ukraine sink Russian warships and submarines. Just because we can do it doesn't mean we should. Why risk a direct NATO-Russia war when Russia is bleeding out in the current fight at such little risk to NATO?

Six years ago, we had 2,000 Abrams tanks sitting in a depot. They provide the raw material for "new" tanks put together in our Ohio tank plant. And if it takes this long to provide Ukraine with 30 tanks, doesn't this make replacing losses for American units in combat practically impossible? So before you mock Russia for having to refurbish old tanks to fight Ukraine, remember what our capabilities are. It disturbs me that we can't build new tanks. 

ISW notes that purported leaks of an American intelligence assessment that Ukraine can't take Melitopol and so can't cut the land bridge to Crimea isn't quite as clear as that story has been portrayed. Ukraine could still put ground lines of communication within range of larger mortars. In addition, Melitopol isn't the only endpoint for cutting off Crimea's overland supply lines. I think Melitopol is the best spot. But Ukraine has options. I'd hope our efforts would focus on helping Ukraine succeed rather than preparing our public for failure--including blaming failure on Ukraine's decision to fight for Bakhmut--a criticism that ignores the high casualties Russia endured and apparently assumes that Russia would have stopped at Bakhmut if it hadn't suffered so many casualties.

How much of Russia's vaunted defensive line is a Potemkin facade? I still have hope that corruption may have undermined the value of what has been built further back. And I wonder if Russia can fall back in good order if pushed out of the admittedly good forward defenses.

The desperately poor are usually too busy surviving to revolt. But is there no limit to what the North Korean people will endure? "North Korea is increasing its repression of human rights and people are becoming more desperate and reportedly starving in parts of the country as the economic situation worsens, the U.N. rights chief said Thursday."

It would be bad if that turned into an African Alamo: "The U.S. military is making plans to evacuate its drone bases in Niger, but no such order is imminent, said Air Force Gen. James Hecker, commander of US Air Forces Europe/Africa." We have 1,100 troops there.

Act Like the Sense of Urgency is Real and Not a Budget Battle Tactic

Does Navy leadership believe the Navy is urgently needed soon?

If the greatest threat of war with China is in the next four years (and I don't necessarily agree with that), we need numbers and the only way to get them is to build smaller warships: 

Earlier this year the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) released a study titled "The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan." The study's recommendations included fortifying U.S. and allied bases (like Guam) and a "Shift to smaller, more survivable ships."

I'd say small, fast and stealthy missile ships armed with proven weapons that can be built in small shipyards and fighting within 24 months.

I think there is a huge problem with that CSIS Taiwan study because its Definitions Section is horribly flawed.

But I digress.

In regard to the composition of the Navy for war, I've long said pick a number needed and build the kind of ships needed to get to that number. 

Yet I want to register a major caveat given our need to deploy ships long distances to fight:

Yet while small ships, like Cyclones or smaller, are useful in the Persian Gulf, I don't believe that small ships like the Russians and a lot of our allies build are possible for the Navy because our ships pretty much have a minimum hull size just to be able to cross an ocean to the patrol area without the hull being pounded to pieces.

As I'd expect with that initial author, he recognizes the size issue:

In the past two years I've written a couple of columns discussing small missile boats with long-range sea capability.

But we could also outfit larger modularized auxiliary cruisers. And perhaps outfit some as motherships to help deploy and sustain smaller warships overseas, now that I think about it.

And we need to be able to reload the VLS cells we have.

But most importantly, we have to be able to trust our Navy's upper leadership.  

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

Friends We Haven't Made Yet?

I'd be happy to get enemies to become friends. But the process has to be our enemies becoming friends and not America resigning itself to the enemy's behavior.

That's great as a general concept:

It would be beneficial for the United States if it could drive wedges among its various adversaries.

It's in the details that we get problems. 

Flips were engineered since World War II for a number of states. But why did they flip?

Yugoslavia
Yugoslavia freed itself from Nazi Germany without Soviet help. Soviet efforts to pull Yugoslavia into the USSR's orbit created a limited common objective of keeping the Soviets out.

Egypt
Egypt was defeated in a war with Israel, and the avoidance of a bigger loss was due more to American restraint of Israel than Russian support for Egypt.

China
We did not engineer the split between Russia and China. We recognized and exploited a split based on our now-common enemy, Russia.

Iraq
Iraq was desperate for Western help as it found itself stuck in a long, bloody war with Iran after its short and glorious war failed to emerge. We had a common enemy.

Russia
The Soviet Union was defeated in the Cold War and the Russians initially saw themselves as a victim of the USSR. Very briefly the USSR was the common enemy.

Vietnam
Vietnam soon found that China was a threat to it and no longer an ally. America became a convenient counterweight--and the only one after the USSR collapsed.

Libya
Libya lost its patron the USSR and believed surrendering to American power was the superior strategy for survival to cope with jihadis.

Plus efforts that have basically failed with Cuba, Iran, North Korea, and Venezuela. 

Why did those efforts fail? Because none of them were defeated by us and none had a common enemy with America to focus a new relationship on. Essentially the efforts were about accepting these enemies as friends with no real concessions by them. The potential friendships were imaginary as long as the existing governments ran their countries. Eventually, enough people here reacted against rewarding enemies who remained enemies in every aspect except accepting our concessions.

Oddly enough, India isn't mentioned at all. This has been a major shift of a non-aligned state with extensive relations with the USSR/Russia because of the rise of an enemy that is common to India and America and its Asian allies--China.

Driving wedges between adversaries is clearly defined by that initial author as America getting a state to switch to our side by abandoning our friends or interests.

Successful flips happen after an enemy is defeated in war or when splits develop without our help that we recognize and exploit based on the "enemy of my enemy" motivation.

China stopped being our ally when the common enemy, the USSR, evaporated. We retained hope that trade and economic progress would create a motive for friendship. But that failed.

Iraq stopped being our friend when it defeated our common enemy Iran on the battlefield*, ending a conventional threat to Iraq. Ultimately Iraq was flipped again after the Iraq War based on common anti-jihadi objectives and a growing Iraqi realization that Iran was a threat.

Libya lost its bargain perhaps because by 2011 we had won in Iraq and it seemed as if the jihadi threat was insufficient to tolerate Libya as a scummy anti-jihadi ally. And civil war in Libya was an excuse to abandon the flip.

I'm not arguing that even temporary flips can't be useful. But clearly friendship between America and bad actors is not durable absent a common enemy to sustain it.

I have long wanted to flip Russia away from China based on the common threat America and Russia face. 

But I have not wanted to throw victims to the Russians to get a "flip" because it would not be lasting and the moral stain would be too much. This is a case where we can flip Russia only if it splits with China first.

Yet I've held on to hope that defeat in its war against Ukraine might be a large enough shock to Russia to motivate Russia to make that split with China from fear of China and hope that America will provide more help than China has proven willing to give to Russia at war.

Don't pretend that America is the only actor with agency and that we must find the right form of highly calibrated outreach to convince an adversary to learn to love us. Sometimes adversaries have to decide on their own not to be raging a-holes to us for their own self interest. Then we can think about making a new real friend. Not an imaginary one.

*Iraq won on points. After a failed Iraqi invasion of Iran, a long stalemate holding off Iranian offensives took place. A late-war Iraqi offensives that cracked the Iranian ground forces gave Iraq a narrow "win" and the conventional war finally ended.

NOTE: The meme is just the template with no need to add anything.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

Challenging the Anschluss?

Is Lukashenko trying to make Belarus a "porcupine" to deter Russia from using force to control Belarus? or is Putin using Belarus to break Europe's recent and unexpected resolve to defeat and contain Russia?

The Belarusians may be trying to stiff-arm Russia: 

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko appears to have found an opportunity to exploit the weakened mercenary organization and reduce his country's reliance on Russia by having the ruthless fighters train his military — something in which Moscow's forces have previously been heavily involved.

I noted that Wagner and nukes could give Belarus some room to push back against the Anschluss Russia is imposing. I wrote: 

Belarus may attempt to use Wagner forces that choose to move to Belarus plus nuclear weapons as means to push back against Russian control by portraying Belarus as capable of halting NATO. Lukashenko is awful. But we really want him to be awfully independent from Russian control.

Wagner can help train Belarus troops. And pose an offensive threat inside Russia, perhaps, in support of factions inside Russia. And if Putin ever sends nuclear warheads to Belarus, Belarus might gain control of the warheads, giving Belarus a small nuclear deterrent. Even if Belarus could not use the warheads, would Russia be sure of that? 

Combine those actions with Russia's focus on fighting Ukraine, and Belarus might have some room to maneuver if Lukashenko wants to try to loosen Russian domination.

And ISW observed this about the Lukashenko-Putin meeting in Russia: 

Lukashenko was likely trying to leverage Putin’s concern over the Wagner Group throughout the entire visit to Russia to gain favorable conditions in Belarusian-Russian relations while deflecting Putin’s demands for closer integration into the Union State and support for Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Still, Wagner is looking scary:

Poland has warned that a growing presence of mercenaries from Russia's Wagner private military firm in Belarus is aimed at destabilizing NATO's eastern flank amid the ongoing Russian war in Ukraine.

Unless this is Scary Theater to ease Putin's worries about Wagner working with the Belarus government by making it look like Wagner is a threat to NATO. Or perhaps this is an effort by Lukashenko to get Putin to fund Wagner inside Belarus as Lukashenko expected--which seems in doubt (the report goes into some depth speculating on what is going on).

Heck, perhaps Putin is supporting Belarusian outreach to Europe, believing Belarus is a gateway drug to improving European relations with Russia:

Belarus is very close to Russia and has had a role in the war, however minor. It might be possible for the EU to work with Belarus, and from there the road to Moscow might be easier to take.

Putin may see Belarus as a tool for restoring past European willingness to accommodate Putin and restore trade and investments with Russia.

Yet the question may be what Lukashenko thinks he can do. He has long tried to balance Russia with the West. That has failed in recent years as Putin has pulled Belarus into Russia's orbit. Does Lukashenko think the Winter War of 2022 is an opportunity to loosen Russia's control?

So this is delicate. Lukashenko is a thug ruler. But it would be better if he can reduce Russian influence in Belarus. Because excluding Russia from Belarus would be better for NATO.

UPDATE: Interesting:

Russian President Vladimir Putin is not trying to push Belarus into joining the war in Ukraine, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said in an online interview published on Thursday.

Russia clearly would like additional troops. If Putin isn't asking it is because he knows he would be rejected and doesn't want to be humiliated.

And Lukashenko made sure we knew that. 

UPDATE: Here we go?

Poland's President Andrzej Duda said Tuesday that Russia already is in the process of shifting some short-range nuclear weapons to neighboring Belarus, a move that Duda said will shift the security architecture of the region and the entire NATO military alliance.

Giving nukes to Belarus makes no sense to me. Can Russia be sure that Belarus can't gain control through intelligence cracking of codes or bribery of corrupt Russians maintaining custody of the warheads?

To me, it makes the most sense that Russia would provide Belarus with disabled actual nuclear warheads incapable of being used as weapons against Russia--or against NATO, which might drag Russia into a nuclear war. But from a distance they'd appear to be genuine working nukes. 

UPDATE: So will Lukashenko be cowed or will he learn he must kill the king when he strikes?

Lukashenko’s act of directly negotiating with Prigozhin in June and then bragging about the role he had played notably embarrassed Putin. Prigozhin’s assassination has likely signaled to Lukashenko both a dramatic reduction of his negotiating space with the Kremlin and an implicit threat against his continued attempts to resist Union State integration efforts.

Interesting times.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

Theater of the Absurd

The Biden administration is maneuvering to pretend it has forcefully compelled Iran to back down from regional mayhem and agree to a nuclear deal that we will insist keeps Iran from going nuclear. In reality it will be worse than the original.

All the talk of America pursuing a new nuclear deal with Iran only gives me confidence that Iran doesn't already have nukes:

An Iranian nuclear test might be the sign than Iran already has a nuclear missile force.

I've worried that much of Iran's nuclear infrastructure is long-term in nature and not the driving force of getting a nuclear weapon. I've worried Iran subcontracted nuclear weapons work to North Korea, safely out of range of Israel and sort of under China's protection[.] ...

But we keep watching the nuclear enrichment status. Or now, anticipating a nuclear test as if that's the signal we should seriously begin to worry rather than the signal it is too late.

But I believe there is a strong chance that the appearance of American resolve to block Iran is merely insincere posturing before surrendering to Iran's nuclear dreams: 

About a month ago, the U.S. and Iran were reportedly close to an informal understanding that would reduce their tensions over the latter’s nuclear program. A month later, progress on an "understanding" seems limited. A prisoner exchange deal is stuck; there have been no new talks. Relations between Washington and Tehran have, if anything, gotten more tense in recent weeks.

Since then, America agreed to pay a huge ransom to get Iran to release some Americans it holds. So that might just be a matter of the administration paying whatever it takes to clear the deck for a deal.

And I suspect America is accepting Iranian escalations in the Middle East in order to allow Iran to give us "concessions" that didn't need to be made until recently (back to that article): 

If Iran agreed to ramp down its enrichment of uranium, hand over several U.S. citizens it holds prisoner, pull back its support for Russia, and generally avoid taking action against U.S. forces positioned throughout the Middle East, the U.S. would release several billion dollars in Iran’s money currently frozen in bank accounts in Iraq and South Korea.

The article's claim that these concessions would be matched by a threat of American military action is absurd. Nobody believes that threat is credible, least of all the Iranians. Indeed, I suspect this little drama in the Gulf is a U.S.-Iran ploy to engineer an Iranian retreat to let America claim it compelled Iran to agree to a new nuclear agreement: 

In a message of defiance and apparent preparedness for escalation, Iran warned on Monday that it could capture American vessels after the Pentagon beefed up its presence in the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea.

If Iran did think the threat of American military action is credible Iran would already be too afraid of America to hold our citizens, back Russia, and take action against American ships or forces in the Middle East.

In addition, I assume any new deal will be more of a wink and a nod than the first deal was, in order to avoid submitting the agreement as a treaty for Senate approval. Or any type of Congressional input. Can't have any scrutiny on the details, right?

Remember, Iran Nuclear Deal 2.0 will have the same basic foundation as the original:

The Iranians will pretend not to have a nuclear weapons program; and we will pretend to believe them.

Because these Democrats in power love mullah-run Iran. God help us all.

Iran has already gotten the time granted by the original 2015 deal. Iran might not have to pretend much longer before it has nuclear weapons. 

But we may be coming back full circle to my initial worries (via Instapundit):

The Islamic Republic of Iran is close to possibly testing a nuclear weapons device and has sought to obtain illicit technology for its active atomic weapons program, according to a series of shocking European intelligence reports released in 2023.

It occurs to me that Iran may not even care what the terms of a nuclear deal are because Iran is very close to having a nuclear deterrent. Hell, the Biden administration might actually have negotiated a good deal--but for the fact that any deal is what Iran needs for a final sprint to finally get nuclear weapons.

If Iran tests a nuke, I assume Iran already has nuclear weapons based on that design. 

Have a super sparkly day.

NOTE: The image was made from DALL-E.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

Speak Loudly and Carry Your Shattered Stick East

I don't believe Putin can't end the war special military operation. I reject the notion that he will accept any price Russians have to pay to continue the war until Ukraine is defeated and Russia can objectively claim some sort of territorial win.

Russia's losses in the Winter War of 2022 could make any territory-based victory a Pyrrhic victory that exhausts Russia and gives NATO the needed time to rearm and prepare.

Russia's war on dissenters is more successful than their war on Ukraine. But this is the big point: 

Some Russians see the invasion of Ukraine as necessary if Russia is to negotiate with the West on an equal basis.

At some point, the prospects of more losses inside Ukraine may make the option of turning his armies around and going home seem like the best option available.

After seeing Plan A fail, which risks a Chinese reassessment of their "partnership without limits", Russia's leadership could sell a deal with Ukraine and NATO that allows Russia to pivot to Asia. 

Russia could claim its willingness to fight and suffer heavy casualties frightened NATO into a deal that finally secures Russia's western borders. The successful war on dissent would enforce that facade. 

Internally, Putin could say he is buying time in the west, waiting for NATO to abandon rearmament while Russia focuses on the east. Just as Russia bought time in the east to focus on the west. 

Putin could end the war by turning around and leaving. And before you say that's impossible, Putin ordered retreats on two occasions in the war rather than stand and fight when the efforts looked like they could fail catastrophically if the fight was continued: on the Kiev front early in 2022 and on the Kherson front in late 2022. You can count a third on a smaller scale north and east around Kharkiv in late 2022, as well.

I'm certainly not the only writer to say Putin can declare victory regardless of the reality. Indeed, it might be Putin's only way to survive the poor performance of the military he built.

We have only to see the exact form of Putin's story that ends the war by speaking loudly and carrying his shattered stick east. Helping Putin sell a delusion that helps us is better than going along with a delusion that harms us.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

The Winter War of 2022 Toys With My Hopes

Ukraine is conducting an offensive it is more comfortable and perhaps more capable of carrying out. This contradicts the Western belief that its aid could enable a fast-moving Ukrainian offensive to end this war sooner rather than later.

I want to believe that Russia's defenses are a crust vulnerable to shattering if hit hard enough:

The report finds that the magnitude of Russian equipment losses and ammunition usage in Ukraine is having a major negative effect on the Kremlin’s ability to prosecute the war. ...

Resulting shifts in the balance of forces are creating a window of opportunity for Ukraine to renew its counteroffensive and recover additional territory.

 

Strategypage thinks the Ukrainian tactics are working, saying Ukraine "uses its superiority in weapons, training and leadership so the Ukrainians are defeating the Russians in many smaller battles, where the Ukrainians make sure they have the advantage before attacking. This takes advantage of the poor morale, leadership and training most Russian troops have."

But does Ukraine have the military power to exploit the weaknesses developing on the Russian side?

Following the war is a flood of news with little useful information. I suppose if I could aggregate all the information coming out of the war and synthesize it to digestible daily or even weekly chunks, I might get a more solid feel for the flow of the war. 

I assume ChatGPT is several generations away from that capability. Honestly, I find it is mostly crap after testing it on issues with a smaller scope of synthesis. It is only useful if you have enough knowledge to write about the issue yourself and you can fact check the "AI" output.

But I digress.

ISW assesses that Russia is compelled to reinforce threatened sectors of the front laterally. That is, by pulling units from a quiet sector to meet Ukrainian attacks.

On the other hand, Ukraine has reserve units that they can rotate into the front to give combat units a break to rest and recover while maintaining a significant reserve to exploit success. That might eventually become significant operationally and allow Ukraine to advance rapidly somewhere.

Right now I can only at least substantially guess at how much of each side's fighting capacity is bluff and how much is real. Could the outcome depend on persuading the other side (including their backers) that your own bluff is real enough to justify making concessions to end the war before worse things happen? 

Ukraine expresses confidence. I say, bolster their confidence with our own public statements. Ukraine could be right--or maybe Russia can be convinced Ukraine is right.

I keep telling myself that sometimes attrition is necessary to create the conditions for mobile warfare--even with old Soviet-style tactics. For now, I will assume that is what Ukraine is trying to achieve.

UPDATE (Monday): Very related thoughts. 

Ukraine needs a Russian-style OPFOR in their own national training center to learn how to fight like a modern Western army.

UPDATE (Thursday): A couple weeks ago it seemed to me that Ukraine had begun to gain more ground. I'm getting more of that feeling now. Is this because the Russians are getting thin on the ground from losses? Has Ukraine committed reserves to achieve this? And if the latter, is that premature? Does this mean Ukraine will lack enough reserves to exploit a hole if it appears?

NOTE: ISW coverage of the war continues here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

Weekend Data Dump

Oh? "Netanyahu’s Trip to China Risks Further Alienating Washington" If Saudi Arabia is the model, it will work wonders for Israel. But Israel should be careful, it's no mullah-run Iran, after all. 

Democracy dies in darkness: "Liberal media bends over backward to dismiss new Joe Biden revelations[.]" Tip to Instapundit.

Schadenfreude? "Americans awoke Sunday morning to find themselves bathing in wave after wave of schadenfreude. In Melbourne, Australia, the unthinkable had happened: the US Women’s National Team had been defeated — and eliminated from the soccer World Cup." Schadenfreude? What misery of Americans are foreigners celebrating? I'm delighted those America-disdaining, over-hyped publicity whores crumbled on the world stage. That team purportedly representing America deserves all the mockery it gets. That team found itself bathed in a wave of schadenfreude when it lost. And added another wave when a lot of Americans woke up to hear that the team lost. President Biden said that despite the defeat, the team inspired Americans. Yeah, it inspired me that sometimes a-holes get what they deserve. Hahahahahaha!!!

Speaking of the purported needless atomic bombings of Japan in 1945:

Thank goodness two of the most annoying kinds of people on the planet are pitted against each other. Tip to Instapundit.

We knew this unprecedented post-World War II measure was coming. And I assumed the teams would only be on while in the most constricted waters: "About 100 Marines have been training in Bahrain for specialized defensive teams that would travel briefly with commercial ships through and near the Strait of Hormuz[.]" But how many will be out at the same time? And while designed to prevent boardings and captures, what if the Iranians mine the waters or otherwise attack the commercial ships with deniable weapons? How will we respond with multiple rescue efforts? And what if Iran "rescues" the crews and our Marines from sinking ship, but holds the Marines "to finish paperwork" before release?

This statistic is pretty stunning: "With limited other options for transporting oil exports, such as pipelines, about 88% of all oil leaving the Persian Gulf goes through the strait, the center said." Especially considering Gulf Oil producers have worked since the Iran-Iraq War to bypass Iran's ability to interdict Strait of Hormuz traffic. I thought more progress had been made. Apparently not. Unless the cheapness of the Persian Gulf route means the alternative pipelines are Plan B. Which is probably the way to bet, I imagine.

The never-ending complaint: "China is expanding its influence into Latin America and the Caribbean, and it could present increasingly greater threats to the United States, the top U.S. military commander for the region said Friday." As I always do when a SOUTHCOM commander complains about lack of resources, I offer this solution.

Making friends: "The Philippine military on Sunday condemned a Chinese coast guard ship’s 'excessive and offensive' use of a water cannon to block a Filipino supply boat from delivering new troops, food, water and fuel to a Philippine-occupied shoal in the disputed South China Sea." Second Thomas Shoal is the shoal in question. I also offer advice here.

Russia canceled their Derzky advanced corvette class: "Since the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Russia has had problems dealing with ambitious new ship designs that were too expensive and complex to complete." I don't mind Russia cutting their losses as long as they keep trying.

China's civilian reserve amphibious fleet evolves. Does China have as many problems as Russia has revealed in Ukraine? Are Taiwanese as ready to fight as the Ukrainians were? I feel comfortable enough on the former but much less confident on the latter. Yet even if the answer to both is "yes", Taiwan lacks the depth to trade time for space as Ukraine had.

Yes. Next question. Didn't we have this debate over the crossbow? Killing has gotten more remote ever since a caveman sharpened the end of a long stick. With few exceptions, the morality question is whether killing is for a good or justifiable purpose. And even the exception of poison gas is probably just a Western European/American thing based on the horrors of World War I. I don't think other states have the same view. So far, only nuclear warheads seem to have a universal bad reputation for use. But that may be from consequences rather than morality.

Missile magnets no more?

Ukraine continues its line of supply interdiction campaign through Crimea. And Russia's strikes on Ukrainian cities surged above recent trends. 

The American airman accused of bombing an American base inside eastern Syria was acquitted as the case fell apart in court. So who did it? Was it enemy action? Green (local allied) on blue (American)? And could it be done again?

Voyager 2 can once again phone home.

The Russian Ka-52M helicopter gunship operating in Ukraine.

If there was any truth to the notion that Ukrainians are really just Russians, Russia's brutal invasion of Ukraine has ended almost all of that. Near the end of the Cold War I had read a dry demographic study by a French author that showed that Soviet attempts to Russify the non-Russians was failing everywhere but in Moldova. And perhaps my hopes that Russia would join the West after the collapse of the USSR was always a fantasy.

South Korea stuck between America and China if they go to war. North Korea won't be a major problem for South Korea. I addressed the issue earlier this year.

Biden administration dismissal of verification provisions for the practically dead New START Russia-America nuclear arms reduction treaty is an invitation for Russia to cheat. Unless the whole issue is moot. Sometimes I think we go along with a Russian nuclear bluff to deter China from invading Russia.

Hopefully allies are ramping up, too: "The Army expects production of 155mm artillery shells will jump more than threefold next year from 24,000 per month to between 80,000 and 85,000 per month, said Douglas Bush, assistant secretary of the Army for acquisition, logistics and technology."

If all China has to do is delay America's military reaction to a Chinese attack rather than defeat America's military, this might be enough: "Anonymous officials from the Biden administration have told the New York Times that Chinese malware has been planted in the networks that control the critical infrastructure of military bases. The 'ticking time bomb' could potentially cripple military systems in the event of a conflict between the two countries." 

Springboard: "Belarus began military exercises Monday near its border with Poland and Lithuania, amid tension already heightened with the two NATO members over Russia-linked Wagner mercenaries moving to Belarus after their short-lived mutiny in Russia."

In regard to the Winter War of 2022, when the going gets tough, the tough reassess their life plan: "Ukraine must have a militarily defensible boundary and a shallow concession. Russia must validate the claim that it is a great power and can settle for far more than Ukraine can concede. Each side must make a powerful move to convince the other that a bad compromise is better than defeat." 

Tensions on the Israel-Lebanon border. One day, Israel might go big to smash Hezbollah.

I say carry out that purported promise after building a nice permanent concrete structure: "Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr on Wednesday denied making an agreement with China to remove a grounded warship that serves as a military outpost in South China Sea, and said if there ever were such a deal, it should be considered rescinded." That would be Second Thomas Shoal.

Holding their ground between democracy and killing jihadis: "The Pentagon is not only keeping U.S. troops in place in Niger but pointing to their presence as a vote of confidence in the people of the West African nation, even as hope for a restoration of the democratically elected government begins to dwindle."

China's leaning forward to compel neighbors to submit to Chinese dominance is pushing potential victims to want more from America: "President Joe Biden on Tuesday said that he plans to soon visit Vietnam in an effort 'to change our relationship,' with the Southeast Asian nation." Adding another cat to the herd, apparently.

They're old and they're few. But they're something: "Dozens of second-hand Leopard 1 tanks that once belonged to Belgium have been bought by another European country for Ukrainian forces[.]" Get back to me when we're talking about dozens of Leopard II tanks.

Good: "The Pentagon’s counter-drone office will focus on neutralizing swarms of unmanned aircraft in its next demonstration planned for June 2024, according to a slideshow displayed during an Aug. 8 presentation by the office’s director." Maybe I'm wrong, but I think combat air patrol drones are needed to battle attacking swarms of drones, as I recommended in Army magazine.

A desperate Russia makes nice to North Korea.

I suspect this is all a U.S.-Iran ploy to engineer an Iranian retreat in the face of apparent American resolve to justify a new Iran nuclear agreement: "In a message of defiance and apparent preparedness for escalation, Iran warned on Monday that it could capture American vessels after the Pentagon beefed up its presence in the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea."

Fingers crossed: "Twice in under a year, researchers at California’s Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory have managed to trigger a fusion reaction resulting in a net energy gain, or producing more power than was used to fuel the experiment." Tip to Instapundit. And also deploy air defense missile around our key electricity generation facilities. 

Of course, this assumes that the leaders distant from Russia are trying to defeat Russia rather than bolster their own political futures: "While the provision of Western support to Ukraine has seen some notable successes, the slow pace of decision-making has made it more difficult to capitalise on Russian weaknesses." I think Biden painted himself into a corner--the right corner in my view--with a facade of resolve he never expected to have to sustain.

Assuming the Air Force can protect our stuff on the ground falls apart from the missile threat. So: "The U.S. Army will grow its Patriot air and missile defense force structure, the head of Space and Missile Defense Command told reporters in an Aug. 8 briefing." Defend those air bases, too.

Same as it ever was ... : "The Somali civil war began in the late 1980s. It quickly produced complete state collapse in 1991, ... Somalia’s civil war never ended. It periodically assumes different forms, of which the war in Las Anod is the latest." Somalia's independence was in 1960. So 31 years as a single state entity. We're at 32 years of Somalia not being a single state. I say admit reality and break it up for parts.

The J6 show trial is understandably reluctant to show its work. When the actual government is acting under color of law, we have problems. Tip to Instapundit.

Two years after the military needlessly lost the Afghanistan war at the orders of the Biden administration--which brazenly claimed success in this skedaddle debacle--there has still been no accountability in the upper ranks of the military leadership. Nah. It'll be fine. No need to discourage that sort of failure with employment and reputational loss, eh?

I'm sure the Taliban view this as tribute from the defeated: "A report by the Special Inspector General for Afghan Reconstruction (SIGAR) notes that the Biden administration has given $2.35 billion to Afghanistan over the past two years, despite the fact that it is now ruled by the Taliban again following the disastrous U.S. withdrawal in 2021." I can't say they are wrong.

If the danger period for a Chinese attack is the next few years, this is prudent: "The Navy plans to extend the service life of four guided-missile destroyers that were slated to be retired in the coming years, adding four or five years to each of the warships’ standard 35 years of service." 

More ammunition for Ukraine from America.

Proto-alliance in INDOPACOM takes shape. 

Indirect Fires Protection Capability launchers take shape to protect Army facilities from incoming fires. Maneuver units still on their own. 

China is working to incorporate its theoretically huge militia into PLA operations. No, not the Other Guys. Actual civilian militia personnel. Who knows if it would work out as intended, given issues raised in the article. People who leave military service forget usable skills in a shockingly short period of time unless routinely refreshed with training.

As I suspected, few of Ukraine's Western tanks have been total losses. If you can recover them, they can be repaired. No word on the non-tank armored vehicles. Then a long digression into tanks and tank-related themes. 

UAVs as cheap cruise missiles (a.k.a. "suicide drones").

From the "Well, Duh files": "[Russian defense minister] Shoigu accused NATO of intentionally militarizing Poland as part of America’s alleged anti-Russia policy." The man is right about Poland. Gosh, what could account for that? What's a little invasion and nuclear threats among friends? I have a rule of thumb about Russia in Europe.

How can America promote rule of law abroad when corruption reaches our own White House with no punishments in sight? Good question. And rule of law is vitally important at home, of course.

Does the American military need more non-lethal weapons? One, they are "less-lethal" and not "non-lethal". And while it can be appropriate in some circumstances, in others where the enemy is out to get us, the enemy gets a big initial advantage knowing we aren't trying to kill them. Enemies can be very clever defeating non-lethal weapons with the confidence of knowing their own death isn't on the line. I'm just not a huge fan of getting carried away with supposed magical abilities of NLWs. (See? an acronym! It's military-grade for sure!)

Just in case: "Poland is planning to move up to 10,000 additional troops to the border with Belarus to support the Border Guard, Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak said on August 10."

This does not shock me: "a paper written by the National Bureau of Economic Research found the best reason not to switch to a remote workplace: working from home is just less productive than working in the office, on average."

Leadership and training problems handicapping Ukraine's counteroffensive. The inertia of Soviet-era practices is heavy. That said, the army-within-an-army approach to creating a mobile force is good in theory. Germany did that in World War I and Iraq did that in the Iran-Iraq War. And Western slowness in providing military equipment has been a problem.Transforming while at war is no easy task. Still, Ukraine just has to be better than Russia to win. If Ukraine is better at Soviet-style attrition warfare, Ukraine may yet win if supported long enough.

The SM-3 Block IIA missile will get a test: "The U.S. Missile Defense Agency is planning a first flight test of some elements that will make up the air and missile defense architecture of Guam in December 2024"

Will a man on a white horse promise these people and others under stress that he will take care of their problems? "Bed-sharing comes as youth unemployment in China soared to 21.3% in June, per official statistics. Youths in China are classified as 16 to 24 years old." The Chinese Communist Party believes imposing party discipline is the key to survival. But what if this isn't a Gorbachev problem but a King Louis XVI problem? Tip to Instapundit.

I have two questions. How long does the gap have to be before America rewards Iran with cash for it not to be a direct payment? And how long before Iran restocks its American hostages? "After months of quiet negotiations, Iran and the U.S. have reached an agreement that would see five American citizens considered to be unjustly detained released from custody and allowed to leave the country, ABC News has learned." [LATER: More details on the huge ransom America is paying. Which means Iran will take more Americans hostage. Ah, Smart Diplomacy.® We're so screwed.]

She seems nice.  

Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.

Nigeria stands on the cusp of getting much worse. Again.

Lots of Russian soldiers have died in Ukraine: "By June 10th 2023, Russian reporters compiled a list of 27,423 Russian dead. A month later the number grew to 47,000." The number is no doubt higher. Russian plans to mobilize 100,000 additional soldiers (outside of the usual recruiting cycle, I assume) might run into problems because of the losses.

Friends in need in INDOPACOM.

Hmmm: "The material two alleged spies for China provided to their handlers point to a sustained interest from the People’s Liberation Army in amphibious operations as threats to Taiwan grow, two naval experts told USNI News."

Good Lord: "There are multiple Arctic and near-Arctic islands with power-sharing relationships that leave control of national defense to a larger entity—as in the case of Svalbard (Norway), the Faroe Islands (Denmark), and Greenland (Denmark)—while permitting local governments a high degree of autonomy. In each case, Moscow has expanded its influence with far too little resistance by Oslo or Copenhagen." Why have I never heard of this opening for Russia? I'd hope "little green men" would be followed by large NATO marines. Maybe America should buy Greenland.

Oh? "A major justification that U.S. administrations have used to overlook the inherent risks of arms sales is that, despite no empirical evidence, weapons sales allow Washington to leverage recipient dependence on American-made arms to force policy changes in line with U.S. interests." Once the shooting starts, unless the war is brief, America can absolutely leverage reliance on American logistics and ammunition supplies. I mean, do you expect our arms sales to turn customers into pliant colonies? They buy our arms because they have enemies. That won't change. But we do retain influence. I think the analysis is BS. 

LOL: "Despite war and sanctions, Vladimir Putin is trying to haul Russia back into the space race."

This certainly signals that Ukraine is willing to lose ground there rather than weaken their counteroffensive on other parts of the front to reinforce that front: "Ukraine has ordered the mandatory evacuation of all civilians from 37 settlements in the north-east as Russia steps up its attacks there."

I have a couple of old short booklets on Lanchester Equations. I came very close to making that my career path. That and the Correlates of War project. I won't pretend to be more than aware of the general ideas of quantitative analysis in this field. But it is fascinating to me.

From each according to their electrical ability; to each according to their electrical need. And the state determines your ability and need. The "Big One" earthquake will just bounce the rubble that California's purported leaders are creating out of the prosperous state they were given.

Believe the science? Tip to Instapundit.

This is the kind of distracting BS you can do when the media fluffs you like there's no tomorrow. Tip to Instapundit.

We have no choice but to work with the Taliban? "For the sake of millions of Afghans, regional actors as well as Western governments and institutions must work to establish more functional relationships with the Taliban." BS. "For the sake of" the people there we have to help an odious government that helped jihadis kill us? What about the sake of our people? I say let our enemies support the Taliban. I say let the Taliban make changes to get our aid. Why should we be stupid to fund their buddies? Why should we care more about the Afghan people than the Taliban government?

I did mention this problem not long ago regarding Ukrainian refugees and Russia's kidnapping of Ukrainians, including children: "The Ukrainian leadership was more aware of this situation and realized that losses in population were more serious than combat losses."

LOL! Tears of laughter, I swear:

I don't trust CNN. I think Trump has been unfairly, unjustly, and illegally targeted by the Democratic Party-bureaucracy-media complex. But I absolutely want to decisively defeat Putin in Ukraine. Just because Democrats are suddenly and oddly anti-Russian, I won't change my position on Russia. I just say, "Welcome to the party, pal."

My view is that this author uses the entirely valid exercise of judging whether it is in America's interests to resist a Chinese invasion of Taiwan in order to rule out American help. He doesn't even wonder if China should rule out a war because of hypothetical costs to them and whether America ruling it out just emboldens China. I suspect this author would rather rely on Fortress America.He was surely a stalwart soldier and may be a very nice man. But I just don't trust his judgment. Your mileage may vary.

OUT: The appearance of impropriety is bad. IN: The illusion of influence is fine. Via Instapundit.

Speaking of archeology: "Six Western nations marked the 15th anniversary of Russia’s takeover of 20% of Georgia’s territory by demanding on Thursday that Moscow return the South Ossetia and Abkhazia regions." The Europeans once made excuses for Russia. So, progress.

Another reason to help Ukraine win earlier rather than later: "All the heads of Ukraine's regional military recruitment centers will be dismissed, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced on August 11, amid concerns about corruption." As the emergency of the initial invasion wears off, corruption rears its ugly head. I've long warned about this.

Apparently British police are too busy protecting certain preferred classes of people with fragile feelings from online butt hurt. Tip to Instapundit.

The University of the CCP's many campuses in the West.

Ukraine used a couple of S-200 air defense missiles converted to ground attack in a failed attempt to hit the Kerch Strait bridge. Old NATO hands know it as the SA-5.

Good: "Japan and the U.S. will agree this week to jointly develop an interceptor missile to counter hypersonic warheads being developed by China, Russia and North Korea, Japan's Yomiuri newspaper said on Sunday."