So-called "porcupine" weapons will not save Taiwan when the PLA lands. And I'm not confident the Taiwanese people could sustain armed resistance in the face of occupation.
I'm not against Taiwan preparing to resist occupation, but it's probably futile. And I'm fully on board the critique of porcupine fixations:
If and when the People's Liberation Army breaches the outer defensive ring, establishes coastal lodgments, and imposes a total blockade, Taiwan's standoff systems will be rapidly expended, neutralized by precision bombardment, or starved of fuel and parts. Without an organized, decentralized civil-military underground ready to execute resistance operations, the island's defense will collapse into rapid paralysis. True deterrence by denial requires more than anti-ship missiles. It demands an island-wide resistance architecture grounded in Unconventional Warfare doctrine.
Don't rely on a porcupine defense. It will kill you.
I think Taiwan is divided enough politically over China that resistance could be brutally suppressed by China using cooperative locals who might see PLA occupation as an opportunity. And if the PLA is running a counter-insurgency campaign, how long will resistance last when they realize Force Design Marines aren't going to liberate them?
Not that resistance training and organization wouldn't be helpful. It would raise spirits during an invasion and bolster the will to win the conventional campaign. But the priority should be driving the PLA into the sea.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!
NOTE: Image--which is awesome--from the article.
