And Now For Something Completely Different

To Meme Man ... is a cook book!

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Dog That Did Not Bark in the Far East

This is an informative article on Russian objectives and policies in the Far East. Almost unmentioned is Russia's vulnerability to rising Chinese power. I think that is the heart of Russia's defense dilemma.

Russia faces serious territorial threats from China in Russia's Far East and potential loss of influence in Central Asia from Chinese competition.

But it was not until the very end that the article's author raises the most important aspect of Russia's dilemma:

The more pressure Moscow feels on its European frontier, the more its western regions will take priority — leaving Russia with even fewer options in the Indo-Pacific and potentially forcing it to accept temporary Chinese hegemony in Eurasia. 

Yes, Russian failure to deploy more power to its Far East risks perpetuating Russia's junior partner status.

But the author ruins the ride in that one final sentence.

One, "the more pressure Russia feels" in the west? Russia is itself creating the pressure by threatening NATO and other states that escaped Soviet domination and impoverishment. Even once-neutral Sweden and Finland are edging closer to NATO as a result of Putin's insane threats, currently centered on Ukraine.

And two, Russia already accepted what it hoped would be temporary Chinese hegemony.

But the pressure in the west that Russia created didn't allow Russia to escape that appeasement of China. Despite a 20-year period to repair Russian weakness, Russia was compelled to extend its appeasement five more years.

What I don't know is if Russia only needed a five-year extension on that 20-year effort to buy time, or if China wouldn't commit to more time because it has designs on Russia.

China has claims on Russian territory and influence, yet few want to discuss that, preferring to inflate the so-called Russian-Chinese alliance that is a mere non-aggression pact that lasts until one side sees it as a constraint rather than a shield.

Let me go back to the beginning of that essay:

Geography and demography will always compel Russia to prioritize its European frontier, but shifts in global economic and security dynamics have drawn Russia back into the Indo-Pacific, where Moscow is finding it has limited tools to maintain its strategic interests. 

True enough. Most of Russia's population and industry are in Europe. Yet Russia needs to pivot it's military to the east to counter Chinese threats.

"Prioritizing" Russia's European frontier should have meant diplomacy to turn former enemies and vassals into friendlier states. This would have allowed Russia to turn its European portion into a safe rear area for a pivot to deploy its limited tools for the actual threats in the Far East and Central Asia.

But no. #WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings

Eternal Hope Still Covers the Stench of Failure

Syria has yet to come clean on its chemical weapons that it agreed to get rid of in 2013. And yet Democrats think a new nuclear arms deal with Iran would work better?

As the Biden administration seeks a new nuclear deal with Iran, let's recall those thrilling days of yesteryear! Of course Assad hasn't bothered to clear anything up:

Western nations accused Syria on Wednesday of refusing for eight years to clear up 20 outstanding issues about its undeclared research, production and possible weaponization of unknown quantities of chemical weapons.

There's a "deal." But so what? Who will make Assad live up to it?

President Obama said Assad had to step down, but didn't mean it. Why should Assad think he meant it when he told Assad his chemical weapons had to go?

Inspectors catch Assad. And Russia protects him. Without fail. The games I predicted at the start continue with no end in sight. The only thing that will change is the number of unanswered questions.

Years after the glorious 2013 chemical weapons deal puked up by Lavrov and blessed by that idiot Kerry failed to clear up outstanding issues, we've once more told Syria to halt. 

Ah, diplomacy.

An Israeli air strike inside Syria during the spring was more effective: 

According to current and former intelligence and security officials briefed on the matter, the June 8 strike was part of a campaign to stop what Israeli officials believe was a nascent attempt by Syria to restart its production of deadly nerve agents.

Don't you dare say you are surprised by any of this. 

But don't worry! Hell, the glories of Smart Diplomacy® might yet pair a new Syria Chemical Weapons Deal 2.0 with a new Iran Nuclear Deal 2.0! A new and improved nuclear deal that tells them--again--to halt. 

Can we really fool ourselves that this time it will work much better?

Oh, that was a rhetorical question. Of course we can. Let's hope the Israelis again do a better job than toothless diplomacy.

Will Putin Make Ukraine a Desert and Call It Victory?

Russia claims Ukraine is a threat to Russia. But conquering Ukraine is likely too hard for a still-weakened post-Soviet Russia. Could Putin hope to wreck and steal from Ukraine to turn the eastern part into a desert and call it victory?

Invading Ukraine will provoke more Western sanctions that could really harm Russian power: 

Dozens of Ukrainian factories and research facilities that either produced components or carried out R&D programs for Russia’s defense-industrial complex and space program severed their relations with Moscow after the seizure of Crimea. This has significantly increased Russia’s cost for producing new weapons systems and space hardware. Western sanctions, including a ban on all advanced technology component exports to Russia, further exacerbated the issue.

If Russia invades, Russia would surely keep at least some of the land captured. But would Russia want the expense of trying to conquer and brutally pacify large parts of Ukrainian territory? When Russia's attempts to get locals to rule for Russia in the much smaller eastern Donbas require constant Russian direct support?

Why not steal what is useful to Russia and destroy the rest--including energy pipelines--with a scorched earth withdrawal back to Russia's (adjusted) border to cripple Ukraine for generations? 

I've suspected that Russia has been buying time in the east against Chinese territorial claims by appeasing China while increasing hostility toward the West.

But Russia is running out of time and has not rebuilt to defend its Far East, short of using nuclear weapons.

It's been puzzling to me that Russia is seemingly refusing to address the threat in the east by failing to repair relations with the West to make Europe a safe area for the real front in the Far East. Provoking NATO hostility is madness in this light.

But Russia seems like it can only tolerate enemies or vassals on its border:

Really, is Russia incapable of having friends or allies? Is Russia only capable of dealing with foreigners as conquered people or client states, targets for conquest or dominance, potential enemies that have to be resisted before it comes to armed conflict, or potential enemies who must be appeased while Russia prepares to resist them?

And Russia has stated in this Ukraine crisis that it can't trust NATO promises.

Could Russia be willing to buy more time to blunt threats from China by turning Ukraine into a desert for a generation or two, thus preventing it from being a threat? Or even being a jumping off point for NATO to be a threat from its territory? While scaring Europeans reliant on Russian energy with a display of brutality?

Angering NATO--which does not have the capability to invade Russia--even more is not that damaging for Russia if Russia has Belarus as a launching point to threaten NATO; and if Ukraine is more than a figurative logistics desert impeding potential NATO threats.

So where are the Ukrainian factories and research facilities that Russia could use to blunt further Western sanctions and prop up Russian arms manufacturing?

I'm speculating, admittedly, for an objective that makes sense. 

UPDATE: It doesn't make sense to me that Russia would risk a big war. But I worry because "Russia has a history of bad judgment, ignoring the lessons of their own history and self-destructive military decisions." Trying to figure out what "makes sense" might be futile.

UPDATE: Russia might choose small military objectives. But that won't push Ukraine off the path toward NATO and the West. So Russia may have three options if it truly wants what it demanded of NATO:

One is to change the government in Kyiv by force, as America did in Afghanistan and Iraq. Another is to impose massive costs on Ukraine—whether by decimating its armed forces, destroying its critical national infrastructure or occupying territory—until its leaders agree to sever their ties to the West. The third is to address that demand to America and NATO—this time from a commanding military position. All three routes would necessitate a big war.

The Russians are fully capable of fucking this up. 

UPDATE: Remember, the Russian army is pretty small. And casualty averse. It can't hold of China let alone start a war with NATO and risk China exploiting that.

Whatever Russia does, it needs to be over in weeks or months and not years or decades. 

Unless that whole "bad judgment" thing kicks in.

Have a super sparkly day.

UPDATE: I changed the meme. I'm horrified this didn't occur to me from the beginning.

UPDATE: Does Russia just want a punitive mission to wreck Ukraine's military? This could be part of my thoughts.

If so, my advice from 2014 holds:

If Putin does escalate to openly waged warfare against Ukraine to take eastern Ukraine, Ukraine needs to do three things: preserve the Ukrainian army; wage irregular warfare in eastern Ukraine to stress Russia's still-inadequate ground forces; and strike Sevastopol.

That advice holds whether Russia is conquering or destroying.

Justifiable Loss of Confidence

Ever since our top leadership lost the war in Afghanistan I've lost confidence in our senior military leadership. The senior officers demonstrated a lack of integrity by failing to resign in protest before the skedaddle debacle and failing to resign since the defeat they helped engineer.

America reduced our troop strength after the Cold War. This caused a problem: 

The U.S. always had a large number of NCOs but the rising number of officers relative to enlisted troops has become a problem that defies solution.

Do we have a military leadership problem because too many officers had too much time on their hands and became woke? 

Our flag officers who seemingly blow with the left-wing political winds need to be purged after the Afghanistan debacle with an old fashioned Roman "decimation". There is hope from the ranks of the military leaders who actually fight.

The military needs to solve this problem because the American people--whose support is necessary to maintain our military--have noticed:

For a long time, the American military was the most respected and trusted government institution. In the past the military realized when it was having problems and corrected them. In the last two decades there has been another cycle of bad leadership at the top and despite surveys of departing officers pointing out a loss of confidence in their superiors, the problems continued. The public noticed, after all it was their sons and daughters who provided the officers and enlisted personnel and the kids were not all right with how their senior commanders were operating.

The public noticing this failure is relatively recent. In 2018 70 percent of Americans had a great deal of trust and confidence in the military. That has since declined to 45 percent and is apparently continuing to fall.

Losing captains was the canary in the coal mine for flag officer leadership problems. I was wrong to dismiss the issue many years ago. In my defense, I was right that the Iraq War was not breaking our Army. My purpose was to reject that charge, which turned out to be a red herring that distracted me from the real problem.

Our senior leadership was--and remains--the problem. And now we have to worry about fighting great powers in conventional combat where the price of even winning--let alone failure--is far greater. 

Have a super sparkly day.

I'll say it again. Purge 'em all. Let God sort them out.

We Have to Destroy Taiwan In Order to Save It?

We can't--and shouldn't--preemptively destroy Taiwan in order to save it from China. I'd rather deflect China.

Is a "broken nest" strategy, as a Parameters article describes, the key for deterring a Chinese invasion of Taiwan?

A Chinese proverb asks, “Beneath a broken nest, how (can) there be any whole eggs?” The proverb means if the United States cannot prevent China from seizing Taiwan by force, it should instead develop a strategy to convince China’s leaders an invasion would produce a peace more injurious than the status quo. ...

To start, the United States and Taiwan should lay plans for a targeted scorched-earth strategy that would render Taiwan not just unattractive if ever seized by force, but positively costly to maintain. This could be done most effectively by threatening to destroy facilities belonging to the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, the most important chipmaker in the world and China’s most important supplier.

Would destroying the chip fabricating plants and otherwise conducting a scorched earth strategy deter China from invading (tip to The Morning Briefing)?

To be fair to the authors, that is just the start and highlight of a broad level of defense and resistance to make the price of capturing Taiwan too high. But the chip aspect is what is highlighted. 

Most fundamentally, I don't think the Taiwanese would ruin their own country as a strategy. But if China defeats Taiwan, I'm sure we'd bomb vital Taiwanese plants and assets; and evacuate key Taiwanese personnel if we can't defeat the Chinese invasion. The British struck the "neutralized" French fleet lest it fall into Nazi hands, recall. 

The authors are right that a similar American strategy relying on bombing the mainland to impose economic costs on China is risky for America. But rather than push China that hard, I'd give China higher priority objectives inland to protect Taiwan. 

As I've long said, my priorities are to deter China rather than defeat them. But deflecting them inland should be a higher priority than defeating them:

We have reacted by trying to arm Taiwan with better weapons and to whip the Taiwanese military into shape to actually fight off an invasion. We've pulled Japan into the arena with a commitment to defend Taiwan and we are making a major play toward incorporating India into our alliance system. We have Australia on board and our forces are based in Central Asia.

While all this looks good for building an alliance to fight and defeat China, this is not playing the Great Game. This is making the best of a worst case scenario--war with China. Sure, if we must fight I'd rather win, but just going to war is going to cost us in lives and money.

One can say that we hope that by becoming strong enough we deter the Chinese but this is still only second best. A deterred China will always be on the verge of attacking, just waiting for the moment when we cannot stop them for one reason or another and so cannot deter them for even a short window of opportunity.

No, defeating China makes the best of the worst case and deterring China makes the best of the second worst case. We need to shovel the Snow back north. We need to play the Great Game in Asia to achieve our best case--a China pointed away from the south--Taiwan and the United States and our other allies--and pointed toward the north and the interior of Asia.

Also, I don't think China can win in 14 hours. Unless you define "win" as getting ashore and being too strong to drive into the sea, as I wrote in Military Review.

Back to the main point, denying Taiwan as an economic prize for China is meaningless to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). China wanted Taiwan when Taiwan was a poor dictatorship. Returning Taiwan to the embrace of the mainland where it "belongs" is the objective. That is the most core of China's "core interests". Taiwan is a political objective and not an economic objective.

And I think the viability of resistance as one part of destroying the value of Taiwan to China--if the Taiwanese are willing after failing to fight hard with their army--need to be thrown out when it comes to a Chinese counter-insurgency campaign:

There will be no hearts and minds campaign or tribal negotiations. They could ship off the native Taiwanese to distant and isolated Tibet and the Moslem areas of western China--where they can learn to be proper Chinese citizens in a sea of hostile Tibetans or Moslems who will see them as Chinese and not fellow oppressed victims of Chinese aggression--and where they can't complain and be heard by the Western press. Ethnic Han Chinese don't seem to want to move out west so making Taiwanese move there will do in a pinch to move demographics against the ethnic minorities.

The Chinese could then ship in plentiful Chinese mainland colonists to Taiwan from the Han parts of China to bolster the former KMT descendants living on Taiwan who still feel more Chinese than Taiwanese. Taiwan will be a more appealing destination than the wild west.

Remember, too, that a loss of Taiwan chips to the world is still a net gain for China by dragging the world down to China's level. Consider it the equivalent of China letting the Xi Jinping Flu Covid-19 virus spread to the world rather than warning the world to brace themselves. Although in time America and Japan will get Taiwanese chip plants. So China has a deadline if that is a factor, I suppose.

China would like to own Taiwan's chip plants. But that's a bonus. Failure to get them makes Taiwan no less important to the CCP. The real "nest" that Xi Jinping wants to preserve intact is the CCP's continued monopoly on power in China. If taking a smoldering Taiwan achieves that, mission accomplished.

The link to the Parameters piece referenced in the initial article is here.

Weekend Data Dump

Democrats want people to think Republicans are threatening a civil war. But all Republicans need is a return to a federal system where the federal government only takes care of truly national issues. Democrats keep saying we're on the cusp of civil war but it doesn't arrive. Maybe they want it. They've lost their bloody minds. Tips to Instapundit.

Admirably refusing to ignore the threats looming over them.

Let's hope she is treated with better respect and compassion than she treats the maskless in Red-state Covid machines.

Don't throw away the Marine Corps.

Via Instapundit, "It is still hard to fathom the number of freedoms, information, and liberty we have willingly given away for the past two years during the pandemic to the influential cultural curators within government and institutions such as unions, academia, media, and corporations." I say Make America Free Again.

In the wake of the January 6th riot, it is amazing to see how quickly Democrats turned from demonizing police as racists to anointing them saviors of democracy. Via Instapundit.

Finland and Sweden: "Vladimir Putin's demands that the US ban the Nordic nations from the alliance has made their joining more likely in the wake of heightened tensions around Russian troops along the border with Ukraine."

Strap in, we're still in transition: "The hard times aren’t over yet. Isolated expertise continues to rule, and our animosity for those different from us politically, socially and racially will not give up."

To me, as the deployments stand, it looks like the Russians would attack in the south while trying to freeze Ukrainian forces around Kiev in place. Additional forces could change that, of course.

China continues to stomp on the embers of freedom in Hong Kong: "China’s military says the former head of internal security in the Xinjiang region will lead the People’s Liberation Army’s garrison in Hong Kong[.]"

To be fair, his paranoia divines threats everywhere: "Russian President Vladimir Putin declared Monday that Russia saved Kazakhstan from what he called a 'foreign-backed invasion,' according to reports." 

We are so screwed.  Tip to Instapundit.

"I know what you’re asking: 'Who amongst us, for 200 large, wouldn’t put a monkey in a dress?'" Really those are tears of laughter running down my cheeks. And I'm ROFL--not curled in a fetal position.

Let's go, Brandon--and the media he rode in on.

Tried for being in combat? "Sgt. 1st Class Robert Nicoson, the paratrooper who was accused of leading a patrol into an unnecessary gunfight in Syria before ordering troops to delete videos of the incident, was acquitted of all charges Friday[.]" I've long worried about fighting under a microscope. And it would be nice to know why our troops might need to fight there.

This is appeasing BS! "Biden admin weighs offering Russia cuts to U.S. troops in Eastern Europe[.]" America has few troops there, with combat units rotated through the region--not "permanently station" there. This is a gift to Putin, if carried out. So much for "restoring" trans-Atlantic relations.

Maybe China escaped the worst of the Xi Jinping Flu with its massive lockdown, while the rest of the world suffered the last two years. But as China heavily locks down to get to zero Covid in the face of the mild Omicron variant, isn't China making sure its economy gets hurt as bad as the rest of the world? Thank God China is more worried about how China looks during their Olympics.

China's fleet goes global.

Putin's goal? "His objective is not just to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO but to ensure it is a failed state that Moscow can dominate, if not eventually reincorporate. He may even seek to coerce Kyiv into recognizing the independence of separatist territories." Ukraine needs to defeat corruption to thrive rather than fail; and charge rent for the latter issue, including Crimea.

I think it is safe to assume Russia is responsible: "An undersea fiberoptic cable located between mainland Norway and the Svalbard archipelago in the Arctic Ocean has been put out of action in a still-mysterious incident."

Worst. White supremacist. Ever. Via Instapundit. Also, Hillary started the birther thing. 

China turned Hong Kong into Hell on Earth. Exploiting the Xi Jinping Flu didn't only help the Chinese Communist Party cleanse China of Uighurs.

Russia declares victory: "Russian-led forces will begin withdrawing from Kazakhstan in two days' time after stabilising the Central Asian nation following serious unrest, the [Kazakh] president said on Tuesday, in a speech that took aim at wealthy associates of his predecessor." Russia needs a victory as its diplomats try to leverage a threat to invade Ukraine.

India said this is an anti-submarine weapon: "Sometimes, before a torpedo can travel underwater to sink a ship, it needs to fly through the air first. India, as part of the ongoing modernization of its military, recently tested a missile-delivered torpedo system." I've wondered if this concept can be used as an anti-ship weapon to evade anti-missile defenses.

Californians should proudly support their compassion with taxes as high as they can raise them. Enjoy! And don't you Democratic voters dare move out. You aren't racist haters, are you? Lie back and think of equity!

The multi-war in Syria is complicated: "Since 2016, U.S. forces in Syria have fought not only members of ISIS but also Syrian government troops, Iranian-backed militias, and Russian mercenaries." I'm less concerned about the complicated legalities. I just want to know why we would fight and die there.

China relies on Russia's military to defend China's investments in Central Asia. For now.

Robin Sage exercises will practice counter-insurgency in North Carolina. I suspect this is more about how to wage insurgency and irregular warfare in the face of Russian occupiers in Europe. But I'm suspicious that way.

I honestly don't think that the popular vote initiative to commit states to cast their state electoral votes for whoever wins the national popular vote is constitutional.  How can it be legal to ignore your own state's voters in order to vote the way people in other states vote?

Okay, that's way more than I needed to know about dolphins. 

Sometimes I wonder if the end point of the Ukraine crisis is an East Ukraine under Russian control and a West Ukraine admitted to NATO and the EU.

Can't--or won't--answer that question?

May our teacher union leaders rot in Hell. 

Can the FBI just refuse Congressional oversight? Via Instapundit.

Would I be out of line to wonder if the Lincoln Project is a deep conservative ploy to suck money from liberals that might otherwise be effectively spent to oppose Republicans? Via Treacher.

Some science must not be followed, comrades! Via Instapundit.

Putin's is persuading more Turks of the value of NATO membership. And more: "Possibly more significant might be Turkish efforts to shore up the defenses of Ukraine, which has drawn Putin’s ire, and Georgia." Returning Turkey to a NATO member in good standing will be another Putin legacy.

No margins for delusions: "Israel declared that it would attack Iranian nuclear weapons facilities alone if the U.S. and key European countries agreed to lift the economic sanctions on Iran in return of Iranian assurances that it will halt its nuclear weapons program. Israel does not believe Iran will abide by these terms, just as it has never halted work on nukes in the past." Israel won't subcontract their survival.

Despite the upsurge in cases, the fact that 75% of those vaccinated people who died from Covid-19 had 4 or more comorbidities means I'm just not worried. And that's before the weaker Omicron hit. And what would the percentage be for 3 comorbitities? Or two?

Yes: "After the Kremlin’s two “treaty drafts,” it is clear that for Russia, the goal is to reestablish dominion in eastern Europe, and push the U.S. out of Europe — effectively ending NATO." The latter is also the goal of the proto-imperial European Union.

I'm so old I remember when it was anti-science right-wing misinformation that the Wuhan Covid-19 virus escaped from a lab in Wuhan, China.

Is ISIL or al Qaeda the larger threat to global security?  My view is that these--or any in the future--are a symptom of the biggest threat from Islam itself that spawns such terror groups. Help the normals win the Islamic Civil War. It's a long process to escape the anchor of Islamist backwardness and evil.

Britain is digesting lessons from its first carrier deployment in a decade.

This should be the easiest question to say "no" to and the FBI's failure to do that lets us know the answer is "yes." We need to fire the leadership and break up the FBI for parts.

Yes: "It is useful to recall that the pretext for Russia’s 2014 invasion of Ukraine was not NATO expansion, it was a trade agreement between Ukraine and the European Union. Putin understands the challenge a successful Ukrainian democracy would pose to authoritarianism in Russia." Russia does not want Ukraine to fully join the West, regardless of NATO membership.

Don't trust China. China is a-hole. 

Democrats keep saying that a minority is thwarting their will in the Senate, despite the fact that 52 senators oppose the Democratic Party's more woke proposals. This math obfuscation to make a minority appear to be the majority seems so familiar.

Resusable plastic grocery bags became the moral choice so quickly that nobody had a chance to notice they are worse than disposable. I assumed that was true from the beginning. I suspect many "green" practices and products are counterproductive.

Good grief. One, who thinks they'll actually carry out a hunger strike for long? Two, college classes must be way too easy. And three, who cares if they do starve themselves?

The attention paid to China is way down as Russia threatens Ukraine. Is that intentional? 

Are Russians willing to die for a Putin war with Ukraine? Ukrainian troops seem willing to fight hard. Let's make sure we give Ukrainian troops the means to fight and a reason for Russians to shrink from war.

Why is she working for NASA rather than the EPA? Tip to Instapundit.

Can you imagine Biden's approval without a media that treats his flatulence as brilliant oration?

Private flights to evacuate Americans, legal residents, and Afghan allies out of Afghanistan continue. I certainly hope our government is quietly helping despite denials.

Kazakhstan clearly decided to trick its people that the United Nations was supporting the government.

As I've long noted, the problem isn't the science, but what we are told about the science. 

Democrats are lying about Republican voter suppression. Republicans are pointing that out. Sadly, the media parrots the Democratic lies. Via Instapundit. To repeat:

I would absolutely focus on treating pedophiles--for the wounds inflicted by the pack of hungry dogs set on them.

Department of Education Teacher Unions. Via Instapundit.

As long as our president is asking me to choose, I want to be on the side of people who ignore Biden.

Sweden: Rearming and less neutral.

The Navy knows how to describe what it wants. But it focuses on what it can't possibly build: "The Navy wants its next [DDG(X)] warship to fire hypersonic missiles and lasers that would be ten times more powerful than the service’s existing laser weapons[.]" FFS.

The Army wants a wheeled 155mm artillery piece.

Guess who's chanting now?

What on Earth did the FAA do in Hawaii and the western U.S.? And why? Via Instapundit. Ah, clearing the skies to shoot down a North Korean missile. Recall how Iran shot down an airliner a couple years ago while prepared to defend against an American strike following Iran's missile barrage on our troops in Iraq.

Fine. NATO has no interest in taking over your vodka-addled Third World country with nukes. Clear enough? "Russia is not making ultimatums in its negotiations with the West but needs concrete answers regarding its security concerns, the Kremlin said [.]"

Well, I assume American nuclear attack submarines will be shooting almost immediately before officially intervening: "The vice chairwoman of the House Armed Services Committee on Wednesday said new legislation is needed to allow the U.S. to respond faster should China invade Taiwan."

Democrats called any Republican president "Hitler." Then Obama called Democratic primary voters "bitter clingers" uncomfortable with a Black man. Then Hillary! said half of Republicans are "deplorables." Then she said all Trump voters are racists. Then Pelosi said Trump voters are traitorous racists. And now Biden says people who oppose him are traitors and racists. I sense an accelerating trend.

 

Follow the science politics. Democrats politicized the Covid-19 response from the start.

But newly Anschlussed Belarus under Russian domination gets away with using migrants as a human wave assault on NATO members. Ef the UN and the EU.

Huh: "The website of Iran's supreme leader has showcased an animated video that appears to show a robot calling in a drone strike to assassinate former President Donald Trump." Iran's nutballs sure know how to make Democrats love Iran even more!

Europe is counting on luck to get through their heating gas shortage this winter and believe wind and solar (LOL) are the long-term solution. I really don't get nuance. Unmentioned is giving in to Russian energy blackmail. Europe would never think it could get heat for our time, would they?

As Biden's approval rating dips below that of ISIL's in key Democratic demographics, expect Democrats to pivot to saying America itself is ungovernable. [Later: whoa, the pixels weren't even dry yet! Face it. America didn't set up Biden to fail. Biden set up America to fail.]

Couldn't happen to a more vile network. You'd need a strong stomach to be in a CNN focus group these days. 

Let's see. You have to be a woman to have an opinion on things like child care or abortion. And a man can decide to identify as a woman on a whim and demand to be treated like a woman. Isn't there a problem for "women's issues" here? Being a progressive is hard work.

Have fun storming the castle: "A top Russian diplomat on Thursday refused to rule out the possibility of Moscow sending military deployments to Cuba and Venezuela, as tensions between the Putin regime and the West intensify." Yawn.

During the Kazakhstan insurrection, the Russian-backed government arrested the intelligence chief. He has ties to China. Fascinating.

News that might have been important in the 17th century.

Yeah, I don't want to hear one damn word from Democrats about being racist. Tip to Instapundit.

Democrats: Health care should be free. Also Democrats: Those without a Covid vaccine should pay more for their health care.

Turkey chooses to be a road block rather than loved to remain in Libya.

Networking Aegis. The kill web forms.

Putin has more territorial ambitions.

The lying party of hate and its leader. Still, based on polling, the president is clearly on his way to uniting all Americans--against him.

The Swedes have noticed additional Russian military activity and are raising their guard, such as at their island Gotland.

Indeed: "But just because something makes waves on Twitter doesn’t mean it actually matters to most people. According to the Pew Research Center, only 23 percent of U.S. adults use Twitter, and of those users, 'the most active 25% … produced 97% of all tweets.' In other words, nearly all tweets come from less than 6 percent of American adults." I commented on that Twitter-reality divide some time ago.

I've never assumed crypto-currencies can't be hacked and stolen. That's one way to get around sanctions.

I don't want to go to war with Russia. But letting Putin get away with aggression against Ukraine doesn't prevent war. Sure, for now America might not be in it. But eventually we will be--minus an ally conquered or cowed by Russia.

To be fair, true "Islamophobia" rests on micro-aggressions: "China said Friday it gained support on issues including the treatment of Uyghur Muslims from a number of Persian Gulf states following talks between their foreign ministers at which they agreed to upgrade relations."

A fire erupted at a Kuwait refinery: "This is the second fire to erupt at the Mina al-Ahmadi oil refinery in as little as three months." I pretty much assume Iran is responsible.

Good Lord, how can I trust ordering anything online now? We've descended to train robbery days. Trade and travel secure from roving bands of criminals is crucial. How much worse will it get? Tip to Instapundit.

Well, when everyone can "qualify" for special forces, nobody is special. When winning wars isn't the priority for our "leadership," this happens.

Speaking of Iranian attacks: "At least four rockets targeted the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad’s heavily fortified Green Zone on Thursday[.]"

Chest-pounding and flinging cyber-poo: "Ukraine was hit by a cyberattack splashing a warning across government websites to 'be afraid and expect the worst', while Russia, which has massed 100,000 troops on its neighbour's frontier, released pictures of more of its forces on the move." If Russia plans to invade Ukraine, it sure doesn't care about strategic surprise.

Russian military options against Ukraine. While Russia surely has control of the air, its technology edge is real but thin, relying on small stocks of advanced weapons. And control of the Black Sea--by default and not from Russian strength--won't provide much of an advantage on land. More thoughts. Mariupol, long in Russia's sights, is probably most at risk.

This fills me with such confidence in our Navy leadership's priorities: "The deployed aircraft carrier Carl Vinson suffered four so-called 'Class A' mishaps among its aircraft in the final six weeks of 2021, with three occurring in the space of a week[.]"

Being aware of the problem must be counted as a success by the Navy: "The U.S. Navy is paying more attention to its battle damage assessment and repair capabilities, as it considers what it needs in order to win a war against a sophisticated adversary."

Thank God our Constitution provides for a spare in case the president is incapable of carrying out his duties. Welp.

Good: "Taiwan on Friday commissioned new navy minelayers to add to its defenses against giant rival China."

Via Instapundit, Democrats effectively "colluding" with Russia's Putin? And with the filibuster, no less! To be fair, the Democrats' conversion to anti-Russian positions was both sudden and unnatural.

Hey! I'm reminded of an actual dangerous insurrection that put the White House in danger. Tip to Instapundit. I'd forgotten about that, lost in the entire period of burning and looting, I guess.

Hillary's Reconquista began with her reading the "victory speech she would have given on election night, 2016, had the nation not dodged her bullet, Matrix-style." I laughed hard at that line. But then I had to change my armor from the fear the prospect induced. I too want sane--if wrong--Democrats back.

Snow is not disappearing. Michigan is not "too hot" by any angle you look at it.

Philadelphia police decided that rather than being the 9-1-1 source of police protection, it will be the 4-1-1 for surviving criminals who can't be stopped. All in all, I wouldn't rather be living in Philadelphia.

CNN spent so much time telling us about the difference between an apple and a banana that the Child Nudes Network forgot the difference between an adult and child victims of their employees' sick urges. Allegedly, of course. Tip to Instapundit.

Surely this suspension is unjust. But it hasn't been that long that I've known Joy Reid and Joy Behar are different people. So how can I possibly weigh in?

The Week in Pictures.

Well, we already know it is lower than the climate models assume.

Supporting an anti-Russian insurgency in Ukraine if the Russians invade is a no-brainer. So obviously the Biden administration is "considering" it. Maybe by 2027 the study to implement the decision will start.

China is sinking roots into territory also claimed by Bhutan.

That's gonna leave a mark: "The Philippines has finalised a deal to acquire a shore-based anti-ship missile system from India[.]" It is the BrahMos supersonic missile.

Russia has already waged cyber war on Ukraine, counting on Russia's military power to deter an asymmetric response. But Russia should be careful that it doesn't get so bad for Ukraine that Kiev has no alternative but to respond with kinetics. Like dispersing mines off of Russian-occupied Crimea ports.

Well yes, a static Maginot Line at sea is no way to defeat China. But we need a recon screen. And the forces need to be mobile with reserves available, capable of counter-attacking and seizing the initiative locally. So don't simply abandon the line.

Is it time to end the panic to benefit the party in power already? But be careful, you don't want to undermine reasons for pandemic weak voting security! Tip to Instapundit.

It's kind of funny when the Vindman you launched circles around to attack you.

Duh: "WELL, THEY HATE HER, AND THEY HATE REPUBLICANS, SO THE CONFUSION WAS NATURAL: Whoops? CNN Chyron Labels Sen. Sinema a Republican During Anderson Cooper 360." I figured out that's how they know she's a Nazi.

I'm fine actually. Greatly reducing watching "news" hysteria helped a lot. And I was never stressed or sick over it, before that.

A happy ending to a terrorist mission in Texas. I like good jihadis. Let's see if he's just another member of the Amalgamated Union of Lone Wolves, as Mark Steyn puts it. 

The only reason China is using lawfare against SpaceX is because China can't attack using a space militia vessel to ram Elon Musk's satellites. Of course, Musk's plan to provide uncensored access to the Internet simply provides access to self-censoring American social media.

In my view, liberals used to be wrong but reasonable. Twitter has infected them (via Instapundit): "Now, as to whether the liberals have changed? Yes, they’ve changed! They used to be gentle, interesting, controversial, humorous people. Now they’re strident ideologues who love every institution which they professed to detest and suspect in the old days…" It's not me. It's them. (But much of that first link is about the media. Read it all).

Yes, "intellectuals" can't fathom that contiguous empires are empires as much as overseas empires were empires: "Intellectuals can’t stop denouncing the West for its legacy of imperialism. But the imperialism on the march today is in the East. Russia and China are determined to consume Ukraine and Taiwan, legacies of the Romanov and Qing dynasties respectively, into the latest versions of their historical empires." Also, Western intellectuals hate the West. But it is no fantasy that the West can play Russia off against China. We did it before. There is opportunity to do it again.

Is China looking at Ukraine as a predictor of what America might do for Taiwan? I don't think that Ukraine is fully analogous to Taiwan. We have more of an alliance difference in Europe. And by geography, Ukraine only gets close to the effects of the loss of Taiwan if western Ukraine falls to Russia. The author does note that. But I worry that China will see it as a predictor. I also worry we will do more than is wise--or Russia anticipates--because of our Afghanistan debacle. Although I think the author has the military degrees of difficulty for Russia and China backwards.

If an outgoing Republican governor issued such a pardon the media would force us to have a national conversation on perviness--and throw in race just in case.

This is absolutely not connecting with people. I don't know what it is but it is creepy and sad, and I want no part of it.

Is this the Russian assault on Ukraine? Or just the pre-H Hour softening up? Of course, disinformation may be less effective since Ukrainians understand that Russians are liars and aggressors. Alas, corruption obscures that for too many.

This isn't a court case ruling there was 2020 fraud. But it is a case ruling that one part of the process was illegal. A part that made it impossible to prove or disprove fraud.

Michigan's Attorney General is apparently a moron. That's no way to improve respect for the A.G.'s opinions. Tip to Instapundit.

I really want to cut down the weekend data dump by almost completely limiting it to national security news. But honestly, progressives and media bias are eroding our rule-of-law democracy. I feel it is a duty to link to that news, too. I'd like to stop. But the woke won't let me escape.

And Now For Something Completely Different

I say we take off and meme the planet from orbit. It's the only way to be sure.

 

 

 
 

  

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

Is the Ukraine Crisis a Prelude to War Or an Opportunity?

China would be very happy if Russia ignites a war with America and NATO. Yet that is no reason for NATO and America to let Russia conquer Ukraine. Will Russia cripple its military in a war with NATO? And pin its military in place on its western border for a generation as China gears up to reclaim its lost territories in Russia's Far East? Russia needs to act on its need for NATO's friendship.

So Russia will invade Ukraine if NATO doesn't capitulate? 

The Russian Armed Forces have been conducting a multi-year military modernization program that is now bearing fruit. Its conventional forces have been reorganized and re-equipped to support a fast-moving "short war" capability.

Well that's the question. Can Russia get its short and glorious war or will it face something worse?

Or rather, does Putin believe he can win fast regardless of his actual capabilities?

Yet giving in to Russia's demands won't end well. Imposing "neutrality" on Ukraine won't preserve the peace. Denying them the right to associate with countries that promote their security and prosperity simply tells Ukrainians that the Russians can capture Ukraine when they are ready. Past Russian promises failed. Notice the pattern. 

Russia has already staked out its claims beyond Ukraine. I feel sorry for Russians. But Putin-ruled Russia is a dangerous loose cannon in Europe. Have no doubt that Russia has more territorial ambitions. Their grounds for taking Ukraine apply to many more countries. 

Russia and America surely want an understanding in Europe. But Russia needs American friendship more than the reverse. Because a rising China is more of a problem for Russia than America faces, with America's many allies and geography. Until Russia makes peace with NATO, Russia is alone. And if Russia is too weak to defend its frontier with China, is Russia strong enough to face a hostile NATO that Putin has been busy creating?

That dilemma seems so clear to me. I struggle for explanations of Russia's seemingly bizarre self-destructive actions. Could this possibly be a Potemkin crisis designed to let Russia turn against China? Or is the explanation the obvious one that Russia under Putin is a dangerously paranoid and nuclear-armed state?

My eerie inter-war vibe I've felt for years may be easing. But is this a pre-war vibe I'm feeling instead? Or will the long nuclear truce era of nuclear powers refraining from engaging in direct, sustained, and open combat continue?

My guess is that this crisis means neither war nor a quiet flip. Putin won't risk war with NATO, but will carry out a short and glorious military action against Ukraine for limited gains, declaring a ceasefire before NATO can act. But I can't rule out that Putin sees this as his last real shot at winning something in the west without a general war when NATO is more ready.

I hope that if Russia invades Ukraine that NATO, without direct combat intervention, helps Ukraine turn Russia's short and glorious war into a bleeding ulcer.

It makes no sense to me that Russia would risk crippling its ability to get Western help to resist China. But I may be grossly misreading Russia's view of the situation. 

God help us, Putin might have accepted vassal status under China. And to sleep at night, Putin may have convinced himself he's a Goddamn, tiger-riding, geopolitical genius.

Weserübung 2022

When I read the headline about Chinese "special forces" being the real threat to Taiwan, I almost disregarded it. But what the author is really talking about is the airborne and air mobile spearhead. Good point.

The primary means of attack would be air/missile strikes followed by airborne attacks:

The main purpose of these strikes, aside from eliminating Taiwan's small navy and air force, would be to clear corridors over the island with massive firepower, paving the way for PLA soldiers to insert via parachute and helicopter.

So it really isn't "special forces"--although those would play a role--but non-amphibious forces.

As I've long argued, even America doesn't have the amphibious capability to throw anything close to hundreds of thousands of troops across beaches. China's capability is weaker and mostly a red herring. So it is misleading to track Chinese amphibious warfare vessels as a metric for invasion capability.

The analysis fits with my view on invading without naval superiority (oddly, I have two copies of that post) which drove my invasion scenario. Although I do assume naval landings at ports as part of the actual assault:

The actual invasion will have started before the shooting starts. Special forces and intelligence officers will infiltrate Taiwan, placing navigation aids to guide parachutists and missiles, and preparing for direct attacks on Taiwanese strategic assets. They might even stock warehouses with consumable supplies and vehicles to be used by the invaders.

Civilian merchant ships on scheduled arrivals will be loaded with supplies, weapons, and light infantry battalions and will sail into Taiwanese ports on both coasts. ...

Warships, amphibious warfare, and drafted commercial ships loaded with troops put to sea and aircraft take off.

For the first impact, Chinese special forces and intelligence operatives hit radar stations, assassinate leaders, sabotage crucial bridges and tunnels, hit Patriot missile sites and communication centers, anti-ship missile batteries, ammunition depots, and strike at air fields.

The light infantry on the merchant ships in Taiwanese harbors will unload and attempt to seize the ports on the west coast or, on the east coast, sabotage facilities and otherwise prevent the Americans and Japanese from using them to reinforce the Taiwanese. Their very presence will deter or at least delay reinforcements. ...

The Chinese will drop their parachute divisions near Taipei to go right for the jugular by seizing the center of government. (I've read the Chinese can lift 22,000 in one day so this should be possible.) With an airfield secured, the Chinese will airlift their urban cavalry division to march on the capital itself. The parachute units will try to cordon off the capital to keep reinforcements from coming in to the rescue. ...

With light infantry already unloaded from civilian shipping in Taiwan's harbors, the invasion force will sail in to reinforce them. Obsolete warships, either converted into troop ships or just emptied of most ammunition and crammed with troops, will make a high speed dash for the ports. Merchant ships taken into the service of the PLAN will begin lifting 9 divisions of infantry from widely spread ports. Roll on/roll off ships will carry heavy armor and artillery to unload in the ports. From the Pescadores [after taking them], additional forces will be sent against the beaches of Taiwan with the amphibious warfare assets and air cushion vehicles to spread the Taiwanese out.

Forces will move out as soon as possible to head inland and relieve the airborne assault forces at Taipei.

China's marine forces would have smaller but important direct and supporting roles.

As that initial author notes, the Chinese surface navy might not be that important given Chinese air power, subs, and mines to keep the strait sufficiently open. 

Heck, the Chinese navy might outplay our Navy by distracting it with a SINKEX long enough for the PLA to get ashore in force.

On the other hand, I think the author credits light PLA forces with too much power if the Taiwanese promptly counterattack with conventional artillery-supported infantry and armored brigades. Which is why I assume a major Chinese seaborne reinforcement of the initial light forces.

China needs to get ashore and quickly either win or get a ceasefire. If the PLA remains on Taiwan even if it fails to capture Taipei, China has won, as I discussed in Military Review.

UPDATE: China appears to be greatly expanding conventional ballistic missiles rather than nuclear-tipped versions, contrary to initial conclusions. That's some expensive artillery that relies on quickly winning a war.