Woked Alaska

China gave us a lesson on "shoe pounding" on a public stage. We tried to bash China at a meeting in Alaska. China used our own woke momentum to throw us to the floor.

Smart Diplomacy is back, baby!

It goes without saying that when conducting high-level diplomacy, you don’t insult the other party at a joint press conference before the negotiations begin. And if you choose to do something so foolish, you must be ready when the other party retaliates in its response.

It is incredible that secretary of state Antony Blinken and national security adviser Jake Sullivan did not understand this when they began talks with their Chinese counterparts in Alaska yesterday. 

Blinken's public attack seemed more like a counter to domestic political charges that Biden is compromised on taking a hard line on China. But the Chinese didn't just sit and take it:

Chinese Communist party foreign affairs chief Yang Jiechi and foreign minister Wang Yi angrily responded with long diatribes against the United States which included accusing the US of human rights and freedom of the press violations.

The response of the Chinese officials attacking America's so-called awful domestic human rights relied on Biden's own domestic woke political position on race relations and freedom of speech in America.

Well played, China. Well played.

UPDATE: Don't be silly! Secretary Blinken displayed courage and resolve by sitting there and taking China's unjustified Big Lie verbal assaults on America! What strength! What confidence! 

The Chinese verbal assaults mimicked the woke left's assault on America. So obviously the American secretary of state couldn't object. "America is back," Biden likes to say. Lying on its back, is more like it. 

Although in the long run, the words won't matter as much as subsequent actions, I suppose. So I shouldn't get too worked up over the words any more than I over-reacted to Trump's Helsinki verbal disaster on the stage with Putin. 

But on the other hand I didn't claim Trump's performance was a diplomatic triumph, did I?

Iran is Not the One

But I'm sure Iran would be much more reasonable and trustworthy when it comes to nuclear weapons research and production:

For the first time, a European (Austrian) court convicted an Iranian diplomat, Assadolah Assadi, of terrorism for his role in organizing the murder of Iranian dissident exiles in France. The weapon to be used was a bomb, which would have caused many deaths, including French bystanders. After his July 2018 arrest in Germany, Assadi claimed he had diplomatic immunity even though he had recruited three Iranian expatriates, who had become Belgian citizens, to carry out the planned Paris killings. The court pointed out that diplomatic immunity does not apply to criminal acts. After a trial Assadi was convicted of attempted murder and terrorism and sentenced to 26 years imprisonment. His three Iranian Belgian recruits got 18 years each and lost their Belgian citizenship. The trial was embarrassing for Iran because it brought out so many details of Iranian misbehavior, especially while using their diplomats in Europe. 

We can't trust mullah-run Iran on anything except their relentless evil and malevolence. 

Why Democrats have their strange love for Iran is beyond me. Although in my personal life I fully understand that form of self-destructive attraction.

But perhaps I've shared too much.

Don't think Iran is just a friend and partner we haven't made yet because we haven't tried hard enough to win them over.

Do We Know What Iran is Negotiating?

Iran is up to something with their nuclear program.

Does Iran already have nuclear warheads? 

We assess, from UN International Atomic Energy Agency [IAEA] reports and other sources, that Iran probably already has nuclear weapons. . . . prior to 2003, Iran was manufacturing nuclear weapon components, like bridge-wire detonators and neutron initiators, performing non-fissile explosive experiments of an implosion nuclear device, and working on the design of a nuclear warhead for the Shahab-III missile.

That's an analysis from 2016. Yet intelligence agencies still think Iran is far from being able to build nukes.

Does Iran have nuclear weapons? Well, either that is true or it is more difficult than we imagine for Iran to develop nukes. 

I've long noted Iran has North Korea, which is totally outside of the weak safeguards of the nuclear deal, for contracted nuclear work. 

And I've argued that Iran would want nuclear missiles before it reveals it can make nukes. Under the shield of the deal, Iran may "just" be perfecting the missile delivery systems and indigenous production process now. That might be the best explanation for what we see rather than assuming Iran has nuclear weapons already.

Actually, a third option is that Iran knows it doesn't need nukes for defense and thinks staying--or appearing to be--on the cusp of nukes is more profitable. And a deal may be more of a deterrent to being attacked than actual nukes. 

After all, Iran has apparently been on the cusp of nukes for a long time. Something isn't as it seems.

Pivoting to All the Domains in Asia

The Army wants more than a supporting role in the Indo-Pacific region.

When the Obama administration announced a "pivot" to the Pacific a decade ago, it was seen as mostly a Navy and Air Force effort directed against the PLA Navy to secure the sea and air above it.

More recently, the Marines were refocused from sustained ground combat to direct support of the fleet's sea control mission.

The Army, too, was seen as only useful to contributing to the sea control mission in the Pacific.

I am against ignoring the Army's potential for sustained large-scale ground combat in Asia and the Pacific. I wrote about that in Military Review a few years ago. And the Army now thinks it needs modern weapons to fight the PLA on the ground. China is the "pacing" threat to measure the Army against. If the Army can defeat the Chinese army it can defeat lesser threats like the Russian army.

More broadly, the Army is willing to help the Navy but seems on board in reminding people of the importance of the land domain out there:

Long-range precision fires are the Army’s top modernization priority, and the service hopes to begin fielding new hypersonic weapons by fiscal year 2023.

However, the No. 2 priority is next-generation combat vehicles. The service is pursuing a new Optionally Manned Fighting Vehicle, a family of robotic combat vehicles, and a new light tank known as Mobile Protected Firepower. ...

“I look at the ability for that conflict, if it ever happened, to become more global and less regional,” [Gen. John “Mike” Murray, head of Army Futures Command] said. “I also believe that the Chinese would use every asset they have in their arsenal, which includes a very large mechanized force. And so I look at, you know, the [U.S. military’s] ability to deter. I look at the assets that China has in place currently [and] their modernization path. I look at ... less of a regional fight and more of a global fight if it came to that. And I just think that we fool ourselves if we look at this too narrowly.”

Murray did not identify the other regions of the world where he could envision a land war breaking out between U.S. and Chinese ground forces.  

I speculated about potential regions where America and China might fight in that article, including in Russia. And focused on Taiwan in this more recent article.

We focus on the tyranny of distance in the Pacific. Which is necessary. But with sufficient logistics America needs to remember that the tyranny of the shores--where people live--is where emphasis must shift once sea control is gained.

The Minions of Zeus

As Britain moves to an off-shore military role around the globe, Britain stands up Vanguard Strike Companies.

This is an interesting tip of the British spear:

Each VSC consists of about 150 Royal Marine and army commando personnel, as well as some Royal Navy amphibious ships to operate from. One VSC will be stationed in Bahrain (Persian Gulf) while the other will be working with the Norwegian military to deal with the growing Russian threat in northern Europe. ...

The VSCs will be wearing the new, distinctly commando, combat uniform. In the past the commandos simply adopted current army uniforms, weapons and equipment. That worked but the commandos noted that special operations troops in other nations had benefitted from developing combat uniforms suited to their particular tasks. These uniforms were distinctive and that seemed to improve morale as well.

Other innovations include training commandos to operate in smaller units, often as small as four men. Modern communications and navigation gear makes this possible.

Back in August Strategypage mentioned them, although they were larger then it seems:

Britain is forming two 300-strong Vanguard Strike Companies of Royal Marine and army commandos. Plus amphibious assets. They have a long history of raiding. One will be based in Bahrain and one will work with the Norwegians to counter the Russian threat. I assume the former is intended to counter Iran. The one working with the Norwegians could also work in the Baltic Sea in case the Russian threat moves against Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania rather than Norway.

It sounds like these units are the means of calling down the lightning bolts from Britain's carrier-centric fleet and possibly land-based air power to support a Thin Red Line ashore in support of allies.

Other British forces will shape the battlefield, as this decision indicates:

The SAS and other units in the Special Forces Group will likely work alongside MI6 to conduct covert surveillance operations against Russian spies and military units.

Those skills aren't just for Russians. And having VSC units as back up represents a lot of potential support if things get hot. 

And to enable the local allies to exploit the battlefield shaping include Rangers:

The new tasks for the SAS will be complemented by the Rangers, the army’s new battalions of troops to advise partner forces around the world and go into battle with them.

The smaller and lighter British conventional ground forces are behind all that if necessary.

I'm unhappy to lose a major British land component. But I won't say this doesn't make sense for Britain. Perhaps they'll inflict a bleeding ulcer on their enemy.

Defending the Brown Skies Against Small Drone Threats

I'm worried about our forward troops under the threat of cheap drone swarms. I'm not alone.

Hear, hear:

The proliferation of armed unmanned aircraft systems (UASs), also known as drones, presents a growing threat to maneuver ground forces, headquarters, logistics and critical infrastructure. This is particularly true for the explosion in the availability of small, increasingly sophisticated UASs. While the Pentagon has invested significant resources to address the challenge posed by medium and large drones as part of its air and missile defense program, it is only beginning to deal with the growing danger of small drones, particularly to military vehicles and dismounted formations.

I likened the problem using a naval terminology model. The Navy fights for control of the seas in the deep "blue" waters far from shore. It moves to project power ashore in the "green" waters closer to shore or even the "brown" waters so close to shore that mud changes the color. 

For the Army air defense issue, the Air Force and major Army systems are geared to the high "blue" skies. The problem is in the "brown" skies close to the dusty and muddy ground where the blue sky air defenses can't reach.

In Army magazine more than two years ago I addressed that problem in a short article. My view is that the forward military vehicles and dismounted formations shouldn't be burdened with lugging around enough weaponry to protect themselves. That would interfere with their primary close ground combat missions. 

I favored layered swarming air defense drones (with smaller drones at the lower level and longer-ranged drones going up the table of organization) that fly combat air patrol over the forward troops. Their organic air defenses would just focus on last-ditch defense against the leakers that make it through the CAP UASs.

So far, according to that initial article, the Army is mostly looking at ground-based kinetic and electronic warfare defenses. Although it mentions the Coyote small killer drone, which could be part of it. The author advises making active protection systems capable of shooting down drones in addition to protecting the vehicles from direct fire anti-tank weapons.

I do like that idea. But it doesn't help the dismounted infantry. And it potentially draws down the magazine of the vehicle APS system to make them vulnerable to direct fire weapons. I'd rather see those air defense capabilities represent the weapon for the leakers that get through other defenses.

I think combat fighter drones are the best way to protect the brown skies over are forward military vehicles and dismounted infantry.

Weekend Data Dump

Yemen's Houthi rebels and their Iranian patrons took America's outreach as a surrender announcement and acted accordingly. The fighting goes on. The Houthi will also take advantage of the humanitarian aid outreach to rebuild their logistics while they can. The Saudi side is slowly winning.

Yeah (via Instapundit): "Congress’s delegation of policy decisions to the executive branch allows the President’s administration to create the most important regulations of our economic and social life. The result is relatively extreme regulations that can shift radically between administrations of different parties, creating polarization and frustrating the search for political consensus." Congress has a role in this polarization by willingly delegating so much power to the president out of fear of having to compromise or even take a clear position on an issue--even minor ones. Although since Obamacare Democrats in Congress seem perfectly willing to legislate their most extreme positions without even wanting compromise. Their apparent solution to the problem is ensuring there is never a transition back to conservative control at the federal level. Germany, the leader of Europe, isn't looking very good either.

The battle for hearts and minds continues in Burbank, California. Tip to The Morning Briefing.

The Syrian civil multi-war staggers on in Idlib province. I know there is a kerfuffle over the 2018 American cruise missile strike on Assad in retaliation for a government chemical weapons attack. Supposedly this chemical weapons attack did not happen. I'm not worked up over that false attack. Back in 2013 I was perplexed that the death of thousands by chemical weapons could prompt a debate over striking Assad. Contrast that to the deaths of tens of thousands by "ordinary" means that we shrugged at. And that was hundreds of thousands of dead ago. Assad and his policy of deliberately targeting civilians to win his multi-war earned him far more retaliation than he has ever endured.

So there's a live cam on Mars:

But isn't the real story the fact that somebody (or something) is playing music on Mars?

Xi seems to say this often, but one day it might be a predictor of imminent action: "Ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leader Xi Jinping has told the country's military and armed police force to get 'combat ready' to defend national sovereignty and security, amid fears that Beijing may be planning an invasion of democratic Taiwan in the next few years." But I admit I'd feel more secure if Xi had told the PLA to get its uniforms "maternity ready."

But of course "deep fake" video technology was harnessed for the bizarrely competitive high school cheerleading team wars that seem to make some of their moms just ruthless. What an awful person.

Well, it's certainly brave of Charlie Hebdo to mock Princess Meghan. But being cancelled by the woke mob for that is far safer than getting slaughtered for mocking Mohammed.

The dictatorship of the popular culture complex. The left doesn't seem to mind it too much. Question: what happens when the popular culture complex doesn't favor you?

Never mind. The media sure pushed that "error" a lot, didn't it? Their mistakes only went in one direction. Tip to Instapundit.

So, a Washington Post story correction invalidates the second impeachment entirely--even on their terms. But layers and layers of fact checkers from different media outfits confirmed it! It was obviously BS from the start. Which makes me ask, if Trump was so bad why did the media have to make up so many lies? Why? To poison the 2020 election campaign. Are the media sorry? Trump isn't president, is he? Oh, and I guess a game of "telephone" is now considered journalism that at worst leads to a fake but accurate news story. And journalists actually wonder why conservatives hate them with such passion.

Does China have any non-awful ally or friend? With a lengthy discussion of China-India border developments.

Greece agreed to buy French Rafale fighters--and French support against Turkey.

The military entering hissy teenager social media levels is very disturbing.

I don't think we have any idea what the size of China's nuclear warheads stockpile is. Pretending that our guess is solid is potentially dangerous.

Wait. I'd been led to believe that without Trump the Canadians did great and closed the border so we didn't screw them up. Apparently not: "In March of 2020, Canadians started dying of COVID-19 and the country shut down. This is a comprehensive report on the country's mishandling of the crisis of the century." I can't read the massive essay compilation. But it's the entire edition of that magazine.

It would have been nice to have been given even one reason why a potential Turkish purchase of Russian stealth fighters would be "NATO's nightmare." I honestly don't care. Let Turkey buy Russian crap. We'll presumably be able to see them up close and if Turkey buys them we'll unplug Turkey from the integrated air defense network should the Russian plane be a threat to its security. And I sincerely doubt Turkey is about to lay out the money for the planes. Although to be fair to the author, an editor no doubt chose that click bait headline.

I disagree with this EU-centric analysis. Britain was useful to America in Europe because of NATO and not because of Britain's membership in the EU, which half a century ago was just a free trade European Economic Community. And Britain was long helpful outside of NATO's area. Britain is free to look globally because NATO won the Cold War which had, along with two world wars, sucked Britain onto the continent. Russia is weaker and farther east than it has been in centuries. Britain can now look globally again in ways it hasn't been able to do since the Kaiser forced the British to concentrate their fleet in home waters.

The Coast Guard is deploying across the Pacific to provide an armed but non-Navy presence. Good.

Okay people, let's not start beating up tea drinkers with funny accents just because the dominant strain of the Wuhan China Xi Jinping Flu CODID-19 virus in America will soon be the "British variant." Bad UPI word usage! 

I am happy that federal law enforcement now are willing to use tear gas on Antifa rioters. And relieved that the media no longer considers tear gas use a crime against "peaceful protesters" which signals the beginning of the Trumptatorship.

Yes, long-range Army missiles could complement the Air Force. Army missiles that suppress air defenses could enable the Air Force to operate more effectively. But have no doubt the missiles are a replacement for close air support that the Army does not trust the Air Force wants to provide when the Army needs it. There's a good reason for that mistrust.

America will trust Russia to help negotiate a peace deal in Afghanistan? Because the Syria chemical weapons deal and Iran nuclear deal that Russia helped with worked out so well?

The issue of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan has been revived lately. My old scenario still stands as my outline of how China will come ashore. 

Trump increased Navy operations to challenge China. Biden seems to be continuing that pace in the Taiwan Strait, at least. Is it inertia that will change when the new administration pushes its own policy?

Defender Europe 2021 is on! It is a large NATO exercise centered around practicing moving an American division from America to Europe. Such things used to be routine in the Cold War.

"At least five rockets hit the Iraqi military air base of Balad north of Baghdad on Monday, without causing casualties, Iraqi security officials said." American contractors were at the base. So far Biden's Defense Department retaliates against Tucker Carlson faster than it punishes Iran.

Well duh: "Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin called international alliances 'force multipliers' for the U.S. in a Sunday op-ed." But there is an assumption in that statement of the obvious that should be stated. Our allies need to be strong enough to be a provider of security and not just a consumer of America-provided security. So our sometimes unpleasant actions to make that assumption real matter. Sadly, another assumption--wrong--is that America didn't have alliances for the last four years.

The Army wants autonomous drone resupply. Resupply worked well with precision parachutes in Afghanistan.

Dissonance! Dissonance! Germany will buy American P-8 naval surveillance/ASW aircraft to fill the gap until a European plane can be built. Wow. Who knew Germany purchased weapons?

Taiwan plans to build a high-altitude ballistic missile defense network. America will be involved. Which would be nice to hold open the door for American logistics and troop reinforcements.

The Army plans to release its multi-domain operations doctrine manual in 2022.

Business owners within the perimeter of George Floyd Square in Minneapolis are begging the police to open up the area and reclaim it. Not that no force is within the area: "Agape, a peacekeeping force whose staff includes ex-gang members from the neighborhood, is on contract with the city to keep watch over the area." Wait. What? The city contracted with a local militia to provide security? How very Third Worldy.

The mostly Democratic Party 2020 election effort may not have been election fraud, but it was close enough for permanent government work. The pro-Biden propaganda effort was significant and disturbing. And by opening up voting by mail it increased the opportunity for fraud and reduced the ability to prevent it. Will we ever know if anybody who was convinced we literally faced the reelection of Hitler took advantage of the opportunity? Will we remove the opportunity for those with motivation to cheat in time for future elections? Or will Congress entrench and broaden the opportunities for fraud, confident that their side will exploit them?

The only reason Iran has the advanced centrifuge is that the nuclear deal was a shield to improve basic technology: "Iran has started enriching uranium at its underground Natanz plant with a second type of advanced centrifuge, the IR-4, the U.N. nuclear watchdog said in a report obtained by Reuters on Tuesday, in a further breach of Tehran's deal with major powers." In the meantime, Iran pretends they want satellite launch capabilities and not an ICBM.

I do hope many Americans culturally appropriated my heritage and wore green this last week to celebrate St. Patrick's Day. Because we're not a-holes who insist everyone stay in their ethnic and racial lanes like we're some old time segregationists unwilling to see our cultural purity muddied.

Where jihadi terrorists roam.

President Biden is scheduled to give a solo press conference on March 25th. We'll see. A lot of things can happen before then. A foreign crisis. A scheduling problem. A visit to Guam. forgetting to set his alarm. An early lid to his day. Maybe even tripping over a new dog and hurting his ankle.

I'm open to the idea that China deliberately infected the world with the Xi Jinping Flu virus. But I'm sure that China at least deliberately refused to contain their epidemic within China. And if the latter, doesn't the result encourage China to think of deliberately attacking the world with a virus in the future?

There's hope for America, after all. 

Are the Pratas Islands the "next Crimea?" That's my guess. If the Chinese want to move on something. What's new to me is that 500 Taiwanese Marines garrison the place. I did not know that. Would that be enough to deter the Chinese who might want an easy victory?

Apparently Anarchist and Marxist supremacy slides under the radar.

Are we closer to Xi Jinping Flu herd immunity from untracked infections? On the other hand, the dramatic drop in cases across America seems to have settled at September 2020 rates, according to a graph I've been tracking. And on the other other hand, the second waves in America and Europe were less deadly than the first waves. Although that might be from not knowing the true denominators in the first waves.

This should not be shocking. The Baath Party itself was modeled on the Nazi Party.

That seems wise: "Taiwan has increased personnel and armaments on Itu Aba, the main island Taiwan occupies in the South China Sea." Also, the United States will sell sensitive equipment for the submarines Taiwan is committed to building.

The former imperial powers battle for influence in the buffer Iraq between them. America needs to support Iraq against both. The Saudis finally seem interested, too.

Do not become confused: "'Moderate' Iranians is a term that has to be qualified. These are members of the senior leadership, all of them approved by the Council of Guardians (twelve senior Shia clerics) who have become divided into mutually antagonistic factions. The Moderates are those who want to put Iran’s interests first and concentrate on the economy and reducing the poverty that is visibly turning more Iranians against their government, Islam and all the foreign wars the radicals have dragged Iran into. These 'realists' are also nationalists and often called 'moderates' by foreigners." My view of Iranian "moderates" is simpler. They wear suits and don't scream "Death to America!" in English on camera.

The young man was admirably able to learn from being hit by the clue bat. His professors? Not so much. Which leads me to ask again, why do Democrats love mullah-run Iran so much? Funny enough I discovered a similar post I wrote 8 years earlier. Some observations are apparently timeless. 

Mini-Xi has joined Dr. Evil's lying campaign about the origins of the Xi Jinping Flu pandemic which began in Wuhan, a city in China. Remember: "[Austin Bay has] written that by late December 2019, the CCP dictatorship confronted a strategic threat: a domestic epidemic that would damage China's economy. So, the dictatorship decided to 'export the contagion' and let the virus spread internationally so the world would also suffer."

Is the Iraqi government financially desperate enough to fight corruption? Even before the first victory in Iraq I was calling for a campaign for rule of law in Iraq to help cement the battlefield victory.

You don't have to go home, but you must stay here. 

For cheap and clean nuclear energy? "The United Nations' nuclear watchdog said Wednesday it has confirmed that Iran has begun operating a cascade of advanced centrifuges at an underground site." Remember, the IR-4 advanced centrifuge had the shield of the 2015 nuclear deal to help Iran make it ready for use now.

As the Biden administration angles to pivot harder to Asia and the Pacific, it alienates Russia: "Russia is recalling its ambassador to the United States for consultations, the foreign ministry said Wednesday without citing a specific reason." Russia is a problem and I support strengthening NATO to block Russia. But China is the bigger problem. Our goal should be to split Russia from China and not drive them closer together. Sadly, Russia has signaled at least 5 more years of sucking up to China. So it will admittedly be nearly impossible to split Russia away from China in the short run.

It disturbs me that conservatives have taken up the false line that America's post-World War II military loses all our wars. That attitude just frustrates me to no end. I too have been disturbed by the entry of retired flag officers into politics the last four years and a couple recent military entries into domestic politics (the Tucker Carlson and Guam National Guard episodes). But that doesn't mean that the military should be thrown under the bus by retconning the military record.

Face it, Biden's border policy could be a super-spreader event.

The population implosion. Tip to Instapundit. I've long had a hunch that Japan will cope with robots while America will use immigration (as long as we emphasize assimilation I'm good with that). I don't remember what I read for this, but I think Europe goes clones. Russia just tries to gather in ethnic Russians. Lord knows what China does. But it may involve genetic engineering.

Olympics in China: move 'em or lose 'em. The 2008 Olympics did not make China a better place as it was argued then. Don't reward the Chinese Communist Party with another Olympics pageant after their record of genocide, oppression, shipping deadly illegal drugs to America, crushing Hong Kong, aggression, and inflicting their Covid-19 epidemic on the world, making it the Xi Jinping Flu pandemic.

The Army will build Arctic operating capabilities. Huh. I thought that climate change would make jungle warfare training more relevant for the region before too long.

When near, appear far different: "The China-backed Confucius Institute is rebranding to avoid public scrutiny into its work disseminating propaganda to thousands of American students." We wouldn't allow Aryan Society German Language Partner Networks to work in our schools. Why allow Chinese Communist Party propaganda and espionage hubs do that?

Potemkin Tsar and Potemkin empire? How far can Russia decline, anyway?

The Army wants to emphasize training at company level and below prior to Combat Training Center rotations.

Wait, the “U.K. variant,” the “Brazilian variant,”  the “South African variant,” the “California variant,” and the “New York variant” of what exactly? Could it be of the "China Virus?" Heavens no, you hater! Tip to Instapundit.

Xiao Zhen Xie may have done more to deter criminals in San Francisco than the city government. 

Marxist Chinese and Marxist-adjacent Russians (see what I did there?) accuse America of racism using the false accusations of Marxist Black Lives Matter as evidence. Tip to Instapundit.

Democrats hate the idea of showing ID to vote. But they want ID to live your life?

Good: "Japan and the United States joined forces Tuesday to criticize China’s 'coercion and aggression' in Asia." In subsequent direct America-China talks in Alaska, it becomes clear we will have to agree to kick their ass disagree. We'll see if this is just something we have to say because of our culture or something we back up with action. Also, you can see from China's behavior in Alaska that Biden organizing a circular firing squad on unjust systemic racism charges in America can be exploited by an absolutely evil Chinese ruling party to dismiss any real complaints about China.

Abandoning our friends who help us kill jihadis every day puts those friends at risk: “Afghan security forces are nowhere near achieving self-sufficiency, as they cannot maintain their equipment, manage their supply chains or train new soldiers, pilots and policemen.” If we want jihadis to rebuild their global reach, by all means step back and let them regain a sanctuary.

In recent data dumps I've mentioned the disturbing problem in Mozambique. The U.S. decided to help with a two-month training mission: "U.S. special operations troops have launched a mission to assist counterterrorism forces in Mozambique, where there are growing concerns about escalating violence by Islamic State militants."

Long-range nuclear missiles are the reason Russia is the biggest direct threat to American territory. That doesn't mean Russia is more than a regional military power with continental defense needs.

CNN's ratings have tanked since Trump left office. Did I call it or what?

I'm good with more dead jihadis: "Taliban hideouts in Afghanistan were targeted by U.S. airstrikes this week as the White House approaches a deadline for withdrawal of U.S. troops from the country." The strikes were in support of Afghan forces in contact with the enemy. But is this an effort to fight and win the war or is it an effort to signal the Taliban to cooperate in signing a pretend peace deal that allows a decent interval between withdrawal and Taliban victory? Extending American troops to November rather than until victory telegraphs the latter objective, no?

The Russians wish their information operations against America were as effective as Democrats wrongly claim.

NORAD will use five Canadian bases and a Greenland base to exercise American-Canadian air defense missions in the Arctic.

American and Turkish naval forces conducted a "passing and communications exercise." Which sounds like we sailed near each other without colliding or shooting and used our radios. Still, it is nice to coax Turkey back from its dangerous path of hostility toward America, Israel, and NATO. But I won't trust Turkey while Erdogan is in charge.

Hahahaha!

If I understand how Smart Diplomacy works, shipping Iran pallets of cash will stop these drone attacks on Saudi Arabia.

Fake news reporting: "America's top diplomat is heading to Europe next week as the Biden administration moves to restore closer U.S. ties with European and NATO allies after four years of snubs and tension under former President Donald Trump." The tensions were from European refusal to meet NATO spending standards. And the so-called snubs were because Trump wouldn't quietly take "no" for an answer from the Europeans over demands they meet their commitments. As far as the NATO countries that don't spend the minimum, "closer" ties with America mean no more American pressure to spend more on NATO's defenses. That is a "shared agenda" the Germans and others can get behind!

Sadly true:

This analysis of China's potential opponents isn't off the mark individually, for the most part. But the idea that America is unneeded to sustain resistance to China is dead wrong. Truly, if we don't hang together we will most assuredly hang separately. America has a major role in knitting these widely separated points of resistance together.

Forgot about this: The early signs of the formation of the Trump coalition. Trump exploited the niche market of people who love America and resent our ruling class that doesn't.

Yeah, I think the concept of an American "deep state" is overblown. But the federal bureaucracy is close enough for fourth-branch-of-government work. And it has little oversight.

Wait. What? How on Earth can the White House fill its staff with Democrats? And how does VP Harris keep her job? Tip to Insanity Wrap.

Yeah. Although our woke racists want to make an omelet:

Where's Waldo? goes to war.

Okay, this is really good:

We've reached the point where white supremacist mass killers use dog whistles instead of proudly proclaiming their views on their obvious racial superiority? Obviously the crime is horrific. And if guilty I'd want the man executed. But why the eagerness to find racial motives when none is apparent? Maybe that lack of evidence changes. But the rush to race-wide judgment is amazing. And appalling.

It has been a long time since "liberal minded" meant "open minded."

Well this is just a stupid take. Conservatives aren't siding with Putin on a live debate with Biden. Conservatives are pointing out what Democrats have been denying for a year now. The fact that Democrats nominated and elected a man incapable of having a live debate with Putin. The last thing I want is such a debate which will prove what our enemies abroad suspect.

Good! "U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh met in New Delhi and agreed to deepen defense cooperation, intelligence sharing and logistics."

I prefer writing on paper for anything longer than about a thousand words. And I prefer to take notes on paper. But I love editing in word processing.  Tip to Instapundit.

CCP: All your immunity are belong to us.

The Saudi coalition launched air strikes against Houthi military targets in the separatist/rebel capital. The Saudis weren't going to hold back after the Houthi repeatedly launched drone attacks on Saudi Arabia. Despite American hopes that the Saudis could be restrained to achieve peace, I'm sure the American government won't protest these Saudi strikes.

Keeping an eye on the oil flows: "The U.S. Navy said Sunday it will hold a major naval exercise alongside Belgium, France and Japan in the Mideast amid tensions over Iran's nuclear program in the region."

This is just BS analysis: "U.S. relations with its two biggest geo-political rivals are facing severe tests as President Joe Biden tries to assert America's place in the world and distinguish himself from his predecessor." The "perception" of Trump's policies are twisted and wrong. Trump strengthened NATO to resist Russia and began a serious campaign to resist China by beginning to decouple our economy from China. In addition to military spending increases. Biden has been loud in his treatment of China and Russia. We've gone with perhaps excessive public compliments of Putin and Xi to excessively hostile words. We'll see about actions. In policy, it would be nice to split Russia from China. To repeat what I wrote earlier,  our goal should be to split Russia from China and not drive them closer together. Sadly, Russia has signaled at least 5 more years of sucking up to China. So it will admittedly be nearly impossible to split Russia away from China in the short run.

Asian Americans are "white adjacent" when Democrats want to hobble their success; but Asian Americans are oppressed minorities when Democrats want to attack Republicans. Yes, Democrats have always been at peace with East Asia. Very Orwellian.

Slandering the people in the American military as racists and extremists is shameful and risks harming our military. First the Democrats came for the police in 2020 and we see how that is working out for individual security. Do we want to do the same for our national security?

Iran's new year is not happy. Pandemic, corruption, oppression, sanctions, financial stresses, inflation, and expensive overseas aggression will do that.

The shape of the Royal Navy:

Interesting: "In what will be seen as a modern day Battle of the Atlantic, the Royal Navy will deploy a ‘spy ship’ to stop Russian submarines sabotaging Britain's internet by damaging undersea cables." MROSS is the ship. It is due to go into service in 2024. 

Is it really just that Manila didn't ask China to leave Whitsun Reef? "The Philippine defense chief on Sunday demanded more than 200 Chinese vessels he said were manned by militias leave a South China Sea reef claimed by Manila, saying their presence was a 'provocative action of militarizing the area.'" So what will the Philippines do when China doesn't leave?

And Now For Something Completely Different

Let's have another go at this, shall we?

 

Also:

What the experts told us to expect a year ago:

What actually happened over the last year:

So there you go. 

UPDATE: One more:

 

This Time For Sure?

There are reasons to keep American troops in Syria. Are the reasons good enough to lose American troops in combat? Could we decide that before the losses compel us to answer that question?

How long will Biden keep American troops in eastern Syria?

How committed President Biden will be to keeping troops in Syria is uncertain, however.

The Biden administration does not appear to be in any rush to pull out the 900 U.S. troops who remain in the country, a relatively small force that some White House officials see as key to preventing a resurgence of Islamic State and a rush to reclaim the area's oil fields by Syrian President Bashar Assad and his Russian and Iranian allies.

But White House officials have said they are reviewing the troop presence in Syria — an announcement that has raised concerns that Biden could reconsider the deployment as part of a larger scaling back of U.S. troops in the Middle East and a planned shift of Pentagon focus to Asia.

Hahahaha! It seems just like yesterday when Democrats (wrongly) accused Trump of abandoning the Syrian Kurds:

We aren't abandoning the Syrian Kurds. We are abandoning the Kurds' goal to hold the border region which anti-Turkish Kurds need to fight Turkey.

We've been trying to protect the Kurds in that border area but we've run out of stalling tactics. The Turks were coming in and we could fight the Turks or get out of the way. What should we have done under those circumstances?

This is bad. I don't like siding with Erdogan over the Syrian Kurds. I don't deny that. But it could be worse.

Again, America is not abandoning the Syrian Kurds, as our officials have stated[.]

Somehow our troops are still protecting the Syrian Kurds despite claims Trump abandoned them.

Look, we had a common objective of defeating ISIL in Syria. The Syrian Kurds were never going to spearhead an effort to overthrow Assad even if America wanted to do that. Do we owe the Kurds something for our joint fight to defeat the ISIL caliphate there? No. That was a shared interest. We achieved that. We no more owe them protection against all threats than they owe America troops to overthrow Assad.

But seriously, we have to decide why we're in eastern Syria before we face a Beirut Barracks or Mogadishu moment that exposes the mismatch between troop deployment and willingness to risk lives.

A Modularized Jeep Carrier?

Could the Navy disperse ship-killing power for INDOPACOM with modularized escort carriers based on container ship hulls?

The debate is recently heated up over whether light carriers should replace some of our super carriers. Are we still thinking too big?

In World War II, small carriers mostly converted from merchant ship hulls (CVEs) provided air power for diverse missions, and when massed could even provide significant air power for major battles.

In Military Review I proposed a modularized power projection platform based on container ships. But that proposal was built on my earlier notion of modularized auxiliary cruisers, including aviation ships.

The British used a container ship converted to carry and launch Harriers and helicopters for the 1982 Falklands War.

What if the Navy converted a dozen or so container ships to carry a small aerial detachment of 2-4 F-35Bs, 2 CMV-22Bs or MH-60s, and some large UAVs? Call them CVMEs. That would spread hulls over a large area.

Light carriers might stage additional F-35Bs to the CVMEs for specific larger strike missions which would then recover on the CVME to refuel and return to the mother ship.

The CVME could also mount containerized anti-ship, anti-aircraft, and anti-submarine missiles--making it like the old Soviet Kiev class--to be fired by its spotting planes or helicopters to supplement their organic weapons loads.  

When the sensor and shooter are separated, options open up. A modern jeep carrier might exploit that.

Stuff Happens

China may not be interested in war to achieve their objectives. But their objectives could lead to war anyway.

A good analysis of China's strategic position:

China must maintain economic growth to maintain stability. It cannot take actions that would make this difficult. Nor can it tolerate the possibility of U.S. naval action that would cripple the Chinese economy. China’s current economic situation is satisfactory. Certainly, a war would not improve it. It is running a risk of U.S. action that would also cripple it. The key Chinese solution is to seek an accommodation with the United States on outstanding economic issues, being aware of the fact that the U.S. has no appetite for war and will initiate only under significant pressure from China. China must weaken the anti-China alliance by making it clear that it has no intention of waging war and that it will align its economy with others. In other words, China must decline combat and make economic and political peace – without appearing that it is doing so under duress.

Yes, in theory a war risks China's economy and therefore domestic stability. I can't argue against it. I've said I wouldn't trade positions with China. 

But accidents and miscalculations happen when elbows are being thrown. I'm just not confident in the ability to send and read signals in a hot crisis. 

Further, even if Xi doesn't want war, who can order the PLA into combat? Do those people understand China's poor strategic position or the real military balance? 

And all bets are off on war if China endures domestic instability and sees a war as a distraction and means to rally the people. As I wrote in this old post:

Even if this logic is true, what if China faces an economic depression? Might not an invasion of Taiwan rally nationalistic support in the face of lack of economic progress? China's rulers wouldn't be the first to seek foreign conquest to still domestic unrest.

Stuff happens.

Don't Drink, Don't Smoke. What Do They Do?

The Marines are shedding the ability to fight large-scale conventional land warfare to directly support the Navy. But Congress won't fund the shift?

Well this is a problem:

Lawmakers' decision to cut millions from the Marine Corps' budget earmarked to allow leathernecks to fire anti-ship missiles from land is hurting the U.S. military's ability to deter China, the head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command said Wednesday.

Marines need funding for powerful Navy weapons they can use to target Chinese ships, Adm. Phil Davidson told members of the House Armed Services Committee. That includes the Maritime Strike Tomahawk, he said, and extended-range SM-6 missile.

The Marine Corps requested $125 million in 2021 to buy nearly 50 Tomahawk missiles the service could launch from land. Congress ultimately did not fund the move.

The Marines decided to get rid of their tanks and are shedding other equipment and units to reorganize and directly support the fleet in the face of Chinese naval power increases.

But the Marines won't get the weapons that they need to finish the process begun by discarding capabilities? Weapons the Chinese are already building?

What are the Marines supposed to do without the weapons to take on the new role? Polish their bayonets?

Phantom Naval Limbs

If the Russians want to waste resources building up naval power in the Indian Ocean, I say that's great.

Just what is the bloody point of this Russian push?

February this year was marked by a heightened Russian naval activity in the Indian Ocean. Russian naval task groups drawn from the Baltic and Black Sea fleets took part in two international naval exercises – one with Iran and another as part of Pakistan-led multilateral exercise AMAN 21. Russia’s military presence in the region will soon include a permanent naval replenishment facility as it seeks to promote itself as an alternative source of influence to other global powers, such as the United States and China.

A blue water fleet is a waste of resources for a regional power like Russia with continents-spanning borders: But I wish they would waste resources:

I've argued that Russia needs to emphasize nuclear ballistic missile subs and coastal defense (including defense of SSBN bastions) with larger show-the-flag ships a small portion of their limited defense dollars that are needed for protecting their large land border.

I can't get too worked up about Russian naval plans. Whatever Russia has or will have will likely have only local significance until Western air and naval resources can be directed to deal with them.

For me, the important thing is that the Soviet fleet collapsed. It's role was to isolate Western Europe from North America so that Russia's army and air force could defeat NATO. Absent that mission, what on Earth does Putin think a new navy would do?

If Russia wants to waste money on a blue water fleet, by all means have a go at that. Enjoy!

The Russians can't seem to let go of their self-image from the Cold War. Which wasn't true then even with much greater military power. Russia's global influence was a mirage created by the fact that geography meant that an advance of 200 miles to the Rhine River would have globe-shaking effects. But Russian conventional power was not something that could be projected and sustained very far from its borders.

I welcome the Russians wasting resources away from the Baltic Sea:

Let the Russians spread out their already inadequate land, sea, and air power. The Black Sea is an economy-of-force front. NATO needs to focus on the Baltic Sea and the Suwalki Gap--and don't forget Belarus, which is probably the most important territory in Europe today.

That's the one area I want NATO and friendly countries to be able to control in the face of serious Russian opposition in order to support the Baltic states or Sweden and Finland.

 The British recently exercised there, as I mentioned:

The British could dig into their archives to inform them on operating in this environment: "Warships from Britain, Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia, with Sweden's air force, joined forces for an exercise in the south Baltic Sea this week." The British fought what we'd call a "grey area" or "hybrid" war in the Baltic states after the World War I armistice in order to hold off the Reds in the Russian civil war. And to hold off the Germans trying to salvage something from their defeat.

We won't threaten Russia's SSBN bastions in the Barents Sea or Sea of Okhotsk unless provoked. The Black Sea is just a place to shoot up Russian naval forces. Local NATO forces will provide any Russians in the Mediterranean Sea with a short but exciting life. And who cares what the Russian Pacific forces do? South Korea could crush them.

Good God, the Russians are getting my hopes up that they might revive aircraft carrier ambitions!

NOTE: I added the sentence "But Russian conventional power was not something that could be projected and sustained very far from its borders." I did not mean to leave the impression that the USSR was not a threat. I just didn't see them as a global power. The importance of nearby Germany and NATO plus lots of nukes created the image of superpower status. 

Russia can be a regional threat but it can't reclaim the Cold War image today no matter how badly they want to be the Big Bad again.

The Domain That Shall Not Be Named?

The Army wants newer vehicles in case it must fight the Chinese on land. That seems prudent.

It's good to see the Army wanting to provide its core competency to the fight rather than be a Navy auxiliary:

One of the Army's top armored vehicle modernization generals said Wednesday that the service would be needed to face down China's massive armored force in a Pacific land war.

China has 7,000 tanks and 3,000 infantry fighting vehicles, "so 10,000 vehicles that will be decisive if we are not there," Maj. Gen. Richard Coffman, director of the Army's Next Generation Combat Vehicle Cross Functional Team, told an audience at a Center for Strategic & International Studies event.

"In order to be decisive, we have to be there with armor to prevent the Chinese from getting into a position of relative advantage," he added.

Yes, INDOPACOM is mostly a naval and air domain. But there is land. And allies who want to control that land. The land should not be the domain that shall not be named in multi-domain operations.

I'm certainly on board the idea in general and in regard to Taiwan specifically when it comes to an Army role in large-scale combat. I wrote about both issues in Military Review here and here. 

If war between America and China is inevitable as the chairman of China's Central Military Commission said, why China should get a free ride in the land domain is beyond me. Make China worry about what our Army could do to them.

Maybe the Chinese need to worry that the worst thing that could happen if China starts a war isn't that America repels a Chinese thrust out to sea and we go back to the status quo ante.

Although I'm not on board the notion that a platoon of Abrams airlifted somewhere could be decisive in any reasonable situation.

Light Carriers

There is a case for light carriers. There is not a case for building light carriers.

Will light carriers be a significant part of the Navy in the future at the expense of the super carriers?

It is unlikely the United States will afford a force of 11 or more large aircraft carriers.  Even if the Gerald R. Ford’s final cost does not exceed $15 billion, the follow-on CVNs will cost some $12 billion per ship. Four or five LHA/LHDs could be constructed for that amount. 

That might be a good idea. Stealth planes and precision weapons make a smaller air wing with a lower sortie rate more significant. I've certainly addressed the question a number of times.

But would Congress really spend the same amount of money for 4 or 5 times as many light carriers? Or to save money would Congress say make do with twice as many smaller hulls?

And how many more escorts would be tied down protecting the more but smaller carriers? Won't that again concentrate too many resources defending still-expensive carriers rather than organizing surface action groups to go after the enemy directly? Won't that additional expense reduce the ratio of light to super carriers that could be built for the same resources?

I think light carriers make sense. But I think that building light carriers from the hull up makes no sense compared to the efficiency of big carriers:

I recently read that the Navy had studied medium carriers with 55 planes versus large carriers with 75 planes and found that the large ships and wings generated twice the sorties at a ship and plane cost only 13% more than the medium ships.

And interesting enough, even a wing of 55 planes on the large carrier generated 40% more sorties than the same wing on a medium carrier.

Light carriers make sense as a secondary use for amphibious warfare ships built for moving Marines. That is, two uses for one hull that is already built.

I seriously doubt we can have the same aviation capabilities with reduced vulnerability for the same price by building light carriers. But it might not make sense to build huge carriers in a sea control world.