Autocratic Impulses in Europe are Hard to Kill

Europe is not a bastion of freedom despite being the cradle of Western civilization, which is much broader than the democratic tradition identified with the West today. America was a major part in the modern view of the West and America is needed to preserve that definition of the Western tradition.

The danger signs in Europe aren't really from the grassroots right (allegedly "far right" as the proto-autocrats and apparatchiki of the ruling center-left political parties assert). The real threat is from the institutional and ruling left:

In a depressingly predictable judgment, the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) has essentially ruled that free speech stops where ‘hate speech’ begins. ...

The ECHR was originally set up to prevent states from carrying out extreme actions that all decent people agree are outside the civilised pale – including torture, death squads, wholesale suppression of anti-government speech, and so on. Yet now it has effectively decreed that governments should protect their citizens from any and all unpleasant speech.

I've noted that rule of law democracy is a post-World War II feature of Europe. And America had a role in achieving that:

It is easy to forget--and this was a useful reminder to me--that Europe with its autocracies and monarchies was not fully part of a free West (although obviously part of the Western tradition) until we rebuilt Western Europe in that template after World War II. And NATO expansion after defeating the Soviet Union was more explicit in demanding democracy and rule of law for new members.

Walking away from Europe in the belief that Europeans will naturally defend our common view of freedom founders on the reality that only American power and influence in Europe has made freedom and rule-of-law democracy a common view. A view that is fading in Europe at a horrifying pace.

UPDATE: A warning about restricting freedom of speech to only "good" speech in inter-war Germany.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

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The Weight of History in China

Is China under Chinese Communist Party control immune to the weight of its history?

China has a long history from which to draw worries:

In the last few centuries, China had endured periods when independent warlords ruled portions of a divided China, and the communist Chinese feared this might happen again. For thousands of years the large East Asian area dominated by the Han variant of Chinese people was sometimes united, but more often divided into separate kingdoms.

This is one reason why I reject the idea that observers of China must predict the one direction for the development of China:

I've had my doubts about the inevitability of China's growth that so many say will supplant us as the dominant power.

So what happens when there is a systemic crisis in China? How do we predict what happens to China, then? I say we may not have to predict which outcome takes place. In a continent-sized country, all of the above could be the result.

And while I'm in the neighborhood of China's history, I think it is ridiculous to claim Chinese rulers have some near-genetic ability to make long-range plans. Patience they may have. That is not prescience.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

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NOTE: I made the image with Bing, which was amazingly obtuse about creating what I described.

Victory First

War is Hell for those who fight it and those caught in the crossfire. It's best to fight to win as quickly as possible. False compassion to alleviate war at the expense of battlefield victory will backfire.

Let the pearls be clutched! 

The Trump administration is moving to abolish a Pentagon office responsible for promoting civilian safety in battlefield operations, suggesting that incoming Defense Department leaders may attempt to loosen restrictions on U.S. military operations worldwide.

This is actually the problem with the office that supposedly simply sought to"prioritize the safety of noncombatants in conflict zones":

“This certainly doesn’t prevent you from ‘taking the gloves off,’” a senior defense official said. “But what it means is, when you ‘put the gloves on’ … you’ll hit what you want to hit, and not what you don’t.”

So are the figurative American gloves on or off? When you go to war, winning within the boundaries of the rules of war should be America's practice for use of military force.

To be clear, abolishing this office doesn't abolish the rules of war. They will remain part of how America wages war, notwithstanding hyper-ventilating over American military actions. And knowing our sensitivity to civilian casualties and the bias of our media, enemies simply lie about civilian casualties.

But too often, preventing any civilian casualties (who we don't want to hit) has taken "priority" over achieving military objectives (what we want to hit). And that priority of false compassion can increase civilian casualties as well as our own troop casualties in the long run.

Civilian casualties are allowed in the rules of war as long as the losses are proportional to the military objective sought. And that's aside from the issue of legal responsibility for civilian deaths falling on the side that hides behind human shields.  

Of course civilian deaths should be minimized. Rest assured, the American military fought within the boundaries of the rules of war before that recently created office existed and will continue to do so after it is abolished. 

UPDATE: Well this is a timely article about the rules of engagement in large-scale combat operations as envisioned by the Army Training and Doctrine Command:

Considering the scale, scope, and violence of LSCO—as envisioned by TRADOC—the ROE will need to be permissive to effectively execute mission command with the appropriate level of control.

We can't have commanders frozen into inaction because they can't get a military lawyer's opinion from higher command on the legality of a strike. Understanding the ability to take risks in ROE must be joined to understanding commander's intent in the operation.

Victory first will be ugly but still within the rules of war. And the alternative could be defeat with even uglier outcomes.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

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Land-Based Anti-Ship Capabilities? Who Knew?

Killing ships from the air is fun and easy. Billy Mitchell would weep with joy.

Killing ships could be fun and easy: 

A new, relatively cheap precision-guided air-launched stand-off munition the U.S. Air Force is working on could be employed against ships with the help of seeker technology from the service’s Quicksink program. The Extended Range Attack Munition (ERAM), under development primarily for Ukraine, is otherwise shaping up to be a highly modular design, variants of which could be optimized for use against other target types.

These weapons would be useful for planes on land air bases. Assuming they are not simply static, unprotected strips of concrete with a wind sock.

Marines may be wondering just what the ef they are doing lugging around short-range anti-ship missiles at the ass ends of nowhere.  

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

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NOTE: Photo grabbed from the Internet. Air Force, of course.

Once More Unto the Breach, Dear Comrades, Once More

Russia just can't quit Syria. So far the new rulers aren't ready to forgive and move on.

Russia is trying to get HTS to put aside that whole "helping Assad slaughter them" issue:

The first official Russian delegation arrived in Syria since the fall of the Assad regime on January 28 to discuss Russia's continued use of its military bases in Syria. ...

The Russian military continues to evacuate military assets from the Port of Tartus amid the ongoing Russian-Syrian negotiations.

If bases are the reason for the West to aid the Syrian jihadi rulers, don't worry about the Russian navy more than worry about the jihadis:

I don't worry. A Russian flotilla based in the Mediterranean Sea will lead a short but exciting life during a war. Russia doesn't need a blue water fleet and trying to cling to one is foolish.

And this prophecy about Russia's Syria expedition:

The Russians bought a pile of trouble to get bases in the Mediterranean Sea region. I don't understand the point of Russia expending effort to get a foothold in Syria. I don't think that it does them any good other than to remind them of their Soviet glory days. And I really don't see the point of Russia's escalating role in eastern Syria.

Russia got a sugar rush from their Syria intervention that will wear off as the grind of dealing with that Hell Hole continues to suck resources from Russia. Putin will need another short and glorious war to restore the rush. And one day the short and glorious war will turn out very obviously badly for Russia.

And Russia seeks to return to Syria even though it got that next war--good and hard.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it.

NOTE: A 2016 photo of Russia's main air base in Syria by Vladimir Isachenkov/AP Photo.

The Winter War of 2022 Counts on Western Leaders More Than Russian Recruits

Russia didn't get its two-week war three years ago. How many more weeks can he keep his ground forces fighting if the West doesn't get out of the way of Russia's war of aggression as Putin demands?

The war goes on. Russia doesn't consider Ukraine a legitimate negotiating partner to make a peace deal and Putin would prefer the West to simply abandon Ukraine and let him conquer it.

But is his supply of cogs up to making good on Putin's demand?

Volunteer recruitment rates in in Moscow have dropped sharply, as Russian citizens grow increasingly unwilling to serve in Ukraine. Russian opposition outlet Verstka reported on January 29 that the number of Russian citizens willing to volunteer to fight in Ukraine in Moscow City has dropped significantly since Moscow's peak daily rate of 200 to 250 people in August 2024 (after the start of the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk) to the current daily rate of about 40 people. The demographic makeup of the volunteers has also largely shifted as ordinary Russian citizens now comprise only half of the volunteers while the other half are largely foreigners and individuals facing criminal or administrative charges. Verstka, citing sources in the Moscow mayor's office and interviews with foreign recruits, noted that more citizens particularly from the People's Republic of China (PRC), African countries, and many from post-Soviet countries are signing contracts with the MoD and are drawn by the promise of one-time payments of 1.9 million rubles (about $19,140).

Is Russia's planned mass reservist call up for "training"--with secret provisions--that I recently noted a guise to get unwilling bodies into the army to send to the front? A Russian lawyer who helps those opposed to serving said:

[Military] exercises were an additional means of recruiting soldiers to fight in Ukraine, as it was easier to "force someone to sign a contract through isolation, trickery or even threats." 

Could this start another wave of Russian men leaving the country? Or going underground inside Russia?

We talk a lot about Ukraine's recruiting crisis. Which mostly seems to be an infantry crisis at the front, really, given the large number of Ukrainians serving in uniform.

But Russia is often assumed to have limitless meat sacks to hurl at the Ukrainian guns and drones. Just because Putin has ordered that and gotten that for nearly three years doesn't mean it can go on forever.

Using money to substitute for Russian bodies is possible as long as the money is there to pay and as long as the foreign troops don't realize it is a death sentence. Not every country in the world will treat its people as disposable sources of income on the scale North Korea has done. 

And if Putin orders the men called up for "training" to go to war, we may find what Russia's limits on its demands for sacrifice are.

UPDATE (Tuesday): Yep:

Russia, unable to subdue Ukraine with military force, concluded that the most vulnerable aspect of the Ukrainian war effort was the support received from NATO countries.

One reaction is Russia's subliminal offensive against European NATO states to frighten them into passivity.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I continue posting here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.

The United States needs a shipbuilding revolution. Our shipbuilding industry can’t handle routine maintenance for our existing Navy without even addressing wartime damage repair; let alone rapidly expand the Navy. 

Trump commented on last week's air strike on ISIL (a.k.a. ISIL) in Somalia: "He went on to detail that the strikes destroyed 'the caves they live in' and that 'The message to ISIS and all others who would attack Americans is that WE WILL FIND YOU, AND WE WILL KILL YOU!'" 

China will put 15 million self-driving EVs on the roads this year. "Self driving!" LOL. CCP-driving, is more like it. Imagine being in your car and it suddenly drives to a Chinese police station or police checkpoint. Or into a canal or pole to cut out the middle man of a rubber-stamp court-ordered execution.

No invasion required: "Panama's president vowed Sunday to end a key development deal with China after meeting with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and after complaints from President Donald Trump that the Latin American country had ceded control over its critical shipping canal to Beijing."

An operational reserve in action: "More than 140 soldiers with the Pennsylvania National Guard will leave for a yearlong deployment to Kuwait as part of Task Force Spartan to support the U.S. Central Command’s mission of increasing regional security and stability."

Oh FFS, stop acting like America would actually invade Panama. Absent an overt Chinese takeover--which I'm sure would trigger some provision allowing our intervention when Panama doesn't keep it secure for our use--America is not taking the canal. 

Jihadis focus the mind: "The fall of Bashar Assad in Syria has led Iran-allied factions in neighboring Iraq to reconsider their push for U.S. forces to exit the country, multiple Iraqi and American officials told The Associated Press." Coalition forces inside Syria are a shield for Iraq.

China's forces aren't ten feet tall. Well, sure. But they just have to be better at the point they wage war. Germans were better than Soviets, but the USSR still marched into the rubble of Berlin in 1945.

Western efforts have slowed the Houthi anti-shipping campaign in the Red Sea: "Egypt and Iran are enemies and reducing Suez Canal income is a win for Iran, which supported the Yemen rebels for more than a decade to make such an interdiction possible." The October B-2 strike on the Houthi hurt them.

Japan puts more F-35Bs on their warships--totally not aircraft carriers, of course.

It seems to me that the case for Mauritius controlling Diego Garcia--where America has basing rights from Britain--is based on French colonial claims that grouped numerous islands together.

Will non-acoustic detection methods turn the seas transparent? If so, submarine survivability which depends on not being detected collapses. Surface ships are easier to see. But they have defensive armament. The methods apply to target surface vessels. But diving deeper would defeat most means.

Swing and a miss: "Swedish prosecutors decided Monday to release a vessel belonging to a Bulgarian shipping company after ruling out initial suspicions that sabotage caused damage to an undersea fiber-optic cable between Sweden and Latvia." Accidents do happen.

Dealing extremely harshly with immigrants and citizens, too. Sound of crickets to follow.

Ukraine will establish corps to command brigades rather than simply have independent brigades directly controlled by regional headquarters. These "corps" are really more like large divisions, unlike our corps which can have up to five divisions. Ukraine used these for their 2023 counteroffensive.

Italy will rebuild its heavy forces: "Italy’s defense chief has challenged Leonardo and Rheinmetall to deliver a massive, €23 billion ($24 billion) order of tanks and fighting vehicles as quickly as possible to get Italy ready for an increasingly dangerous world."

The Guardian speaks of the EU's self-destructive policies as if they are successful; and advocates more "Europe": "We need to see something that visionary leaders on the European continent have often aspired to but never achieved: pluralist societies cohering in a common European 'nation'." Never waste a crisis.

Is the recruiting crisis really over or is this from reduced goals? "The Army is set to dramatically expand how many new recruits it can send to basic training this spring, riding the momentum of recent gains toward reversing a recruiting slump it has struggled with in recent years." Also, ah Leonard Wood!

The Art of the Ukraine Deal takes shape: "President Donald Trump says he wants to negotiate an agreement with Ukraine in which Kyiv guarantees supplies of rare earth metals, key elements used in electronics, in exchange for aid." German criticism is weird. Without rare earths we can't make weapons.

That's nice. Without fog or smoke, of course: "The Navy has disclosed that the Arleigh Burke class destroyer USS Preble successfully test-fired its High-Energy Laser with Integrated Optical Dazzler and Surveillance (HELIOS) system to take out an aerial target drone in Fiscal Year 2024."

JAGM: "The Marine Corps plans to upgrade an air-to-surface munition to give its helicopters more firepower to shoot down enemy drones, according to the service’s new aviation plan." 

Indeed: "On Monday, [NATO secretary general Mark] Rutte said any notion of a European defence strategy without the United States would be a 'silly thought.'" America is needed to knit together large but atomized European forces into a coherent whole. Don't listen to EU types who want "Europe" to do that.

A survey of Russian and Chinese interests in the Indo-Pacific region. In my view, Russia wants to point China at America--for good reason. And China wants to squeeze the last drop of Soviet technology from Russia. As for "no obvious dealbreakers between them", what? These two are frenemies with benefits.

Did the Biden administration rush a report on START compliance to obscure Russian cheating on that nuclear weapons agreement? Dunno. I also don't know how much of Russia's strategic deterrence is a facade. Sometimes I wonder if we go along with Russian bluffs to deter China from attacking Russia.

Hypersonic overhype. I've read in the past that while sometimes you absolutely have to kill everyone in the room right now, that for most military missions hypersonics are expensive over-kill. That said, I do have some worries.

Why does America fund enemies? Tip to Instapundit. Indeed. But that is loose change compared to this funding outrage.

Victory: "The US could be allowed to step up its military presence in Greenland, the prime minister of Denmark has said." But the island is not for sale. Okay. It would be nice to own Greenland, but this is acceptable.

China has proved it can blockade Taiwan. Sure. But a blockade is an act of war. How many warships and planes east of Taiwan is China prepared to lose to enforce it? And if naval mines start appearing off of Chinese ports--and sinking oil tankers and container ships--what then?

Ukraine says it is using lasers in an air defense role.

Air Force and Navy surveillance aircraft are flying missions along our border with Mexico.

Hmmm: "Trump ... suggested that displaced Palestinians in Gaza be permanently resettled outside the war-torn territory and proposed the U.S. take 'ownership' in redeveloping the area into 'the Riviera of the Middle East.'" Writing "permanently" ignores context, I think. Those who won't leave open up this option.

American B-1 bombers flew with Philippine F/A-50 fighters over the Scarborough Shoal where Chinese aircraft previously used flares to drive off a Philippine transport aircraft.

Good grief, Putin wants everything: "the position of the magnetic North Pole is officially being changed, continuing its shift away from Canada and towards Siberia." Tip to Instapundit.

Special forces are getting them: "Roadrunner will operate as an explosive drone that will destroy itself when it demolishes a drone, helicopter or aircraft." Ahem. It's kind of expensive for anti-drone work, however.

You've got targets: "During the last decade the American military has been using software incorporating radical new technology for mission planning. That includes selecting targets for air strikes." Pray it isn't hacked or our Air Force becomes everybody's air force.

Here we go: "U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday restored his 'maximum pressure' campaign on Iran that includes efforts to drive its oil exports down to zero in order to stop Tehran from obtaining a nuclear weapon." In the last year Iran lost a lot of its assets that it needs to rebuild.

"Force Design" Marines don't want to be a second Army but are cool with being a second Navy. And have no problem being a third air force: "The Marine Corps plans to double its buy of the carrier-borne F-35C variant and scale back its buy of the short-takeoff-vertical-landing F-35B, according to [the Marines]."

The commander of the American cruiser that shot down a friendly F-18 during combat with the Iran-backed Houthi was relieved of command while the ship was still at sea.

Private military companies. Western PMCs tend to focus on security. Russian on combat operations. Chinese on Belt and Road security. Mercenaries have a long history. 

A grateful nation remembers the life and service of  LTC Harry Stewart, Jr.

Troops don't like the optics: "The Army has officially fielded its brand-new rifles to soldiers, but the service is apparently still working out the kinks with the systems' advanced optic, according to a new assessment from the Defense Department's top weapons tester." New stuff often battles reality until fixed.

Yes! "The hugely delayed effort to return the Russian Navy’s nuclear-powered battlecruiser Admiral Nakhimov to service is finally yielding some tangible results, according to Russian reports." The blue waters siren song beckons!

I've long been aware that NGOs support our enemies. I didn't realize how much we funded them and how directly they worked against America (tip to Instapundit).

From the "Well, Duh" file, we really should break our defense-industrial base reliance on China. 

Compromising with friends and allies on trade terms is possible, but: "China is a strategic adversary. Trade conflict is a symptom of deeper political and economic tensions. The problem for China is that its economy is not well positioned to weather a new major external shock." It's still only a trade skirmish.

Can Britain maintain political independence from the European Union while promoting trade with the EU to raise British standards of living? That's the problem. It took America from 1783 to 1815 to get Britain to give up on opposing the Colonial Exit and play nicely. I doubt the EU is there yet. 

Programs of Engagement: "a Ukrainian firm developed an AI system that can, with great accuracy, determine if a group of soldiers in the distance are Ukrainian or Russian. This reduces the instances of friendly fire."

The Philippines meets force with hints of force.

Maybe: "The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) snapback mechanism allows signatories to reimpose UN Security Council sanctions on Iran in the event of 'significant non-performance by Iran of JCPOA commitments.'" We'll see if this process survives UNSC rules, eh?

France sent the first of the Mirage 2000 fighters intended for strike missions to Ukraine.

Seriously, it simply sounds like Trump offered to oversee rubble clean up and unexploded ordinance disposal in Gaza. Assuming the population is out of the way. Gaza is not the Greenland of the eastern Mediterranean Sea.

Russia has a new nuclear use policy? Oh no. Anyway. I think this is an information operation to frighten the West. It's easier to draft fantasy doctrine papers than build and maintain long-range nukes.

Bulgaria gets F-16s to replace old Soviet aircraft.

India will increase its defense budget by nearly 10%.

The US has plans to withdraw troops from Syria, but no orders to do so. Is this leverage to get more from Coalition and regional allies?

Ukraine says Russia suffers a very low 2:1 wounded-to-killed casualty ratio because of poor battlefield medical care. If true, I imagine that factor kills those who would be too wounded to fight in any case. So this saves money for Russia's war effort, I suppose. If true. Possible. Don't know.

Attrition strains Ukraine's army. And popular support. All this talk of America using Ukraine to weaken Russia ignores that it is only because Ukraine is willing to fight to defeat Russia. Our aid doesn't make Ukrainians fight. It makes them capable of fighting. After three years, either side may decide not to fight.

I like the aid-for-rare earths deal. But the idea that helping Ukraine resist Russia's invasion doesn't already improve American security is nonsense.

Assuming the 10,000 Mexican troops sent to prevent human and drug smugglers from crossing into America won't be bribed, this is a good thing. But what we do matters much more. Tip to Instapundit.

I've heard some say the USAID is a CIA front that launders taxpayer money through expensive, loyal middlemen. I'd be prone to accept the need for that if the CIA was influencing foreign countries and conspiring against foreign enemies.

Trump's "plan" for Gaza is a recipe for "forever war"? We have a forever war right now. And as far as I can tell the prediction is based on the author creating a plan in his mind from a couple sentences. I'll wait for a proposal.

ISW judges that Ukraine’s Kursk incursion has undermined Russian offense operations elsewhere.

Fort Apache: “If there were another Pearl Harbor type surprise attack in the Pacific, it would not hit Hawaii, but Guam.”

More and more I see FPV drones as another type of precision munition. The cost is in personnel to use them rather than money to build them.

Iran’s escort carrier.

Cutting the cord: “Estonia, along with fellow Baltic states Latvia and Lithuania, is counting down the days to finally ridding itself of one of the last vestiges of 50 years of Soviet occupation: an electricity grid controlled by Russia.”

Mine clearing LCS would be useful east of Taiwan in case of a Chinese blockade.

ASW detection: “The Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) has helped develop an autonomous underwater float that can monitor and transmit oceanographic and underwater acoustic data near-indefinitely, and in near real-time.”

Slaughtering our people was so three months ago.

Eliminating friendly fire is hard: “there are often unwinnable situations where a commander either advances quickly against an enemy force, and risks more friendly fire, or takes more casualties because the enemy is left in a better position, or simply because the battle will last longer.”

The Army’s new 6.8mm rifle and light machine gun.

Sudan’s army is making “huge gains” in the civil war.

China wants a naval base in Simonstown, South Africa.

Russian war crimes: “About 14,000 Ukrainian children have disappeared into Russia and many of the younger ones have been adopted by Russian couples to be raised as Russians.”

I have to say that I'm shocked North Korean troops were pulled off the front because of casualties. I assumed North Korea wanted all of them to die there rather than come home "infected" by seeing a foreign country. Even Russia at war is better than North Korea.

Out of the Frying Pan and Into the Fire

Sunni Arab states won a victory over Shia and Persian Iran with the fall of Iran's client Assad regime in Syria. But a victory for Sunni jihadis who hate Sunni Arab monarchies and threaten their legitimacy is a deeper threat.

Yes, that's an ominous dark lining in a silver cloud:

The fall of the Assad regime in Syria created a unique problem for Arab states, especially Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. They are relieved that their regional and sectarian rival, Iran, has lost its power and influence in the Levant, but its demise has empowered Sunni Islamists in Syria, the likes of which Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have spent many years and untold amounts of money suppressing. Sunni Arab states will now have to deal with Islamists at the state level.

The Saudis with their restive Shia minority have long worried about Iranian subversion as well as a direct military threat from far more populous Iran on the other side of the Gulf. The Saudis are now hedging their bets with limited outreach and aid to HTS. This is a major change after years of trying to wean Shia but fellow Arab Alawites (well, sort of Shias) who ruled Syria under Assad away from Iranian (who are Persians but not Arab) dominance.

But for all the talk in the West of HTS being "tame" jihadis who simply want "Islamism in one country" rather than aiming to restore an Islam-spanning caliphate, Arab rulers don't seem similarly confused. They appreciate that their dangerous neighborhood just got even more dangerous.

One can only hope that Mohammed bin Salman can traverse his high wire to shift the legitimacy of Arab autocrats and monarchs from radical forms of Islam that the Saudis created and spread to one based on justice and stability. Success in the Islamic civil war would transform Islam to a more normal form just as Christianity evolved away from its expansionist and militant phase.

UPDATE: Resettling refugees is Syria's biggest problem? FFS, having jihadis in charge of Syria is Syria's biggest problem.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it.

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Making Russia Slavish Again

Putin will formalize Russia's junior status under China's dominance. For a man so determined to restore Russia to the supposed pinnacle of Soviet-era power, this is an amazing record of stepping on rakes. My how the mighty have fallen.

I'm not even sure what this means:

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged to boost cooperation between Moscow and Beijing one day after Donald Trump returned as U.S. president.

The two leaders held a call Tuesday to discuss “new plans for the development of the Russian-Chinese comprehensive partnership and strategic cooperation,” according to a transcript of their conversation published on the Kremlin’s website.

Addressing Putin as his “dear friend,” Xi said China and Russia should jointly support the U.N.-centered international system and defend the post-World War II global order.

“This year, I am ready, together with you, to elevate Chinese-Russian relations to a new level, to counter external uncertainties by preserving stability and resilience of Chinese-Russian relations, for the development and prosperity of both countries and for justice and equality in the world,” Xi told Putin.

China and Russia wish to support the UN-centered system? That's basically what America does, so I'd really love to see their Definitions Section for what they support.

And what does it mean for the Russia-China relationship? A closer relationship at this point can only mean institutionalizing Russia's increasingly obvious vassal status under China's domination. I mean, Russia has already blown 20 of the 30 to 40 years Russia thought it needed to balance China's power if Russia hopes to retain control of its Far East.

Perhaps the deal sounds better in the original Chinese.

Is skipping along on Xi's leash as the sick, angry man of Europe the price Russia will be forced to pay to renew (again) that expiring agreement that mutes China's claims on Russian Far East territory?

Putin is doing the opposite of restoring Russia's greatness. Will Russians get angry at that record?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it.

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Let's Get Small--and Modular

The Navy has changed its framework for building an unmanned portion of the fleet. Its unmanned surface vessels (USVs) are going modular.

This seems reasonable:

After spending years charting a way forward to a family of unmanned surface vessels in a specific array of sizes and configurations, the Navy is eyeing a major course alteration that would see it pursuing a simpler and more interchangeable design. According to Rear Adm. William Daly, head of the Navy’s surface warfare division (N96), the wish list is now simple: he wants to amass a large number of these unmanned boats quickly and equip them with payloads that fit in common containers and are designed to confuse the enemy.

It's like tiny versions of modularized auxiliary cruisers. 

And not only could this type of vessel complement conventional warships, this would allow the creation of disaggregated "virtual ships" in a flotilla of USVs providing multiple capabilities to the whole:

A Ukrainian sea drone apparently shot down a Russian helicopter. Could future warships be disaggregated in numerous manned and unmanned hulls? Damaged or destroyed components could be quickly replaced with new components. You might not reload them at sea--just replace it and send the empty one to port.

And from Sweden, a means to link those multiple USVs:

Swedish defense manufacturer Saab recently introduced Autonomous Ocean Core or AOC. This system allows naval commanders to remotely control ships.

Small USVs aren't suitable for rough seas or self-deployment across oceans. But as forward deployed assets that take point entering an enemy anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) kill web, they could work, no?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it.

NOTE: U.S. Navy photo from The War Zone article.

Be Careful What You Wish For: Marine Corps Edition

The Marine Corps feared being a second Army to avoid going on the budget chopping block as a redundant formation. It chose to be a second Navy. The Marine haven't even done enough to be a redundant second Navy.

What is it that you do here?

So, you abandoned traditional amphibious warfare for a concept dependent on unproven weapons and international basing agreements, none of which are operational after five years. Why, general, should this organization recommend keeping the Marine Corps? Give me one good reason that the XVIII Airborne Corps could not do the job cheaper and with less overhead.

As I noted about the Marines in their self-inflicted purgatory of no longer being a combined arms combat force and not yet a mobile anti-ship force, don't sink, don't shoot, what do you do?

We lost an opportunity to use the Navy Expeditionary Combat Command for the anti-ship mission, protected by the old-style Marines:

Two retired Marine generals are concerned about the radical changes being pushed through the Marine Corps. I believe their concerns are justified. Why wasn't the Navy Expeditionary Combat Command (NECC) tapped to provide capabilities the Marines are being torn apart to provide?

I had related thoughts in Joint Force Quarterly (starting on p. 38) on the Marines as a first responder sharing the job with Army light forces late in the last century. 

UPDATE: Related thoughts on gutting conventional ground combat systems and amphibious warfare ships:

Simply put, the “United States Marines are no longer capable of responding to global crises and contingencies quickly and ­effectively, and in some cases, at all”.

Can Marines really do a better job of sinking ships than the Navy or Air Force? 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it.

Kill the European Union

The European Union hates America and it hates democracy. It should be American policy to kill this proto-empire in its crypt before it does real damage to America and Europe itself.

The European Union (EU) doesn't even admit that NATO provides the means for Europeans to defend geographic Europe:

European Union top diplomat Kaja Kallas warned on Wednesday of a possible attack by Russia in the coming years.

"Many of our national intelligence agencies are giving us the information that Russia could test EU's readiness to defend itself in three to five years," she said, addressing the annual conference of the European Defence Agency in Brussels.

"Russia is not the problem for some, but for all of us. Europeans need to wake up," she urged.

Moscow currently spends almost five times more on defence than the EU, Kallas added and called for an increase in spending.

"Europe's failure to invest in military capabilities also sends a dangerous signal to the aggressor. Weakness invites them in."

This claim on spending is so misleading that is indistinguishable from a lie. The EU may spend little on defense compared to Russia, but European nations in the EU who are also members of NATO do in fact spend much more on defense than Russia. Add in America, Canada, and Britain who are NATO members but not in the EU, and you have a sound foundation for the defense of Europe through NATO. Kallas wants to divert the money to the EU bureaucracy--which Kallas misleading calls "Europe" as if the EU and Europe are synonymous. She and her ilk will lie to achieve that convergence.

And Americans who talk about how Europe should do more to defend itself should be careful about whether "Europe" means the EU or European states under the America-led NATO. If we get the former, don't assume "Europe" won't consider America the threat it must defend against.

The EU could complement NATO but the EU wants to destroy NATO in order to eject American influence from Europe. It's all part of the EU plan to gather power in order to strip away the pesky prefix of their proto-imperial entity.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it.

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

The Winter War of 2022 Gets a Real Estate Deal

How will the status of Crimea affect the prospects of ending the Winter War of 2022?

The war goes on. Russia seems to be slowing down on the ground while Ukraine accelerates their aerial campaign against Russian oil and logistics.

Russia must not get away with conquering Crimea: 

A Russian Crimea mortally endangers Odesa and Ukraine’s entire southern coast, sowing the seeds for an enduring simmering Ukraine-Russia conflict fueled by concerns over national security, sovereignty, and pride. Russian control would return Crimea to its centuries-old violent history: a flashpoint of regional instability and power competition among all interested in accessing the Black Sea. Furthermore, Russian dominance in the area would significantly boost Chinese and Iranian influence across the Black and Caspian Seas and greater Central Asia more broadly, undermining American, European, and broader free-world interests.

But what if Russia purchases it? With back rent, too:

Will Russia's ground forces break under the strains of defeat, retreat, and death? But can Putin make peace if he loses everything he's gained? I think Ukraine may want to consider selling Crimea to Russia as a part of a peace plan that gets Russia to evacuate all the rest of Ukraine's territory lost since 2014.

Trump might be the one to help Ukraine negotiate such a deal.

NATO with its Black Sea coastal presence can cope with Crimea in Russian hands:

Russia is fighting hard in Ukraine, in part to make the Black Sea a Russian lake to have strategic depth. That objective is futile even if Russia conquers Ukraine. 

I mean, if Russia can't overcome Ukraine's MacGuyvered anti-ship and strike capabilities that have weakened Russia's ability to use Crimean bases or sail in the western Black Sea, how will it cope with NATO power?  

Honestly, a Russian focus on the less critical Black Sea front--especially with Ukraine standing firm shielding NATO states from direct ground attack--distracts Russia from the central front around the Baltic Sea.

And in bonus territory, selling Crimea to Russia sets a nice precedent for America purchasing Greenland, eh? Or renting portions of it.

UPDATE (Thursday): ISW reports Ukraine launched battalion level attacks in the Kursk salient that appear to have captured significant ground.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. I'd appreciate it if you subscribe, and liking and sharing posts. I continue posting here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.  

That's useful: "Air Force wings in Japan and South Korea dispersed aircraft and airmen during weeklong rehearsals this month for flying and fighting on the move." Just don't disperse to death traps.

That's what NATO does: "A senior military official of the European Union has urged the bloc to refine its mutual-defense clause and start considering the division of labor in the event of a conflict." The EU will exploit any real or imagined crisis to kill NATO and strip away the prefix of its proto-imperial project.

That's bad: "Families of U.S. service members who live in Afghanistan are stuck in the country and blocked from relocating to the United States due to an executive order issued by President Donald Trump this week." But why are they still there after 3-1/2 years? Why didn't our airlift skedaddle get them out?

Russia is an autocracy seeking to be a dictatorship, with a list of countries to conquer. Ukraine is a democracy fighting to remain independent.

There are a lot of ways to kill small, simple drones. One method of overcoming electronic warfare is wire-guided suicide drones. Another is "a fire and forget guidance system. This works by equipping the drone guidance system with images of the desired targets from different angles." As I foretold.

Drones are clearly important. The situation at the front in the Winter War of 2022: "The front in Ukraine is a thousand kilometers long and soldiers are increasingly trapped in their bunkers and trenches." Do drones make the front static-ish? Or does a static-ish front empower those cheap, short-range drones.

Since Turkey engineered the HTS victory, that ship already sailed: "If it is to yield positive change, Syria’s transition cannot become the object of a geopolitical struggle." I suspect the transition will be spoiled by Islamism becoming radical jihadism. Western aid will be considered the tribute of frightened inferiors.

Britain joined the EU after shooting itself in the foot, making the EU seem like it was a more promising example. Britain is lucky to be out. The EU is stalling and will either fragment or unify as a U.S.-like federation. So close. I think a politically unified EU will be a bureaucracy-run empire.

Comparing and contrasting American and Chinese frigate construction. Mostly contrasting.

MADIS, the Marine drone counter-measures system, arrive: "The system is intended to counter the smallest drone threats with a suite of countermeasures that include electronic jamming, an M240C machine gun, a 30 mm cannon[.]"

Nobody liberated the Soviet gulags: "Russian President Vladimir Putin has stressed the role of the Red Army in the liberation of Auschwitz, in a message marking the freeing of the Nazi death camp 80 years ago." And pity the Nazi-Soviet non-aggression pact gave Hitler time to conquer and kill more Jews.

Huh: "NATO officials are investigating damage discovered on Sunday to another undersea cable running across the Baltic Sea, this time a telecommunications link between NATO member states Sweden and Latvia." Round up the usual suspectsky.  

I won't comment on China's DeepSeek artificial intelligence released. Isn't it odd China released it? If China is ahead, why reveal their progress now? Or is it to worry us that they are ahead of even what they revealed? If they aren't lying. Is it to bolster their rule at home by boasting? Hell, is it good for America?

Good: "The Air Force is reinstating a basic training class Monday that was suspended last week for revisions, with its materials on World War II-era Black and female pilots intact but diversity, equity and inclusion components removed." Perhaps it was simply editing and not malicious compliance.

China pretends it owns the area. It doesn't. But if nobody stops them, they do: "Chinese cutters, small boats and aircraft blocked a Philippine scientific research mission to the South China Sea features of Sand Cay on Friday, according to Philippine officials." 

Either get more human pilots or accelerate AI pilots: "The U.S. Air Force needs to address its dwindling number of fighter pilots if it wants to remain combat ready, according to a recent report by a Washington aerospace think tank." Warrant officers would have helped long ago. 

It would have been funnier to rename the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of X.

If your suicide drone can't penetrate vehicle point defenses, don't try: "One new concept that has already been used is First Person View/FPV drones to plant magnetic mines on the edge of a road or trail Russian armored vehicles are headed for." One more way to skin a cat, eh? And I did call the concept!

Christianity fades in the Arab world: "This is all the result of long standing Islamic disdain for other religions. During the last century that disdain has increasingly turned to violence and outright hatred. Most Christians, and other religious minorities, fled to the West, often the United States."

The return of Air Force warrant officers.

It's America's fault that Russia is aligned with China? Bullshit. People wrongly think we can bribe enemies into becoming friends rather than understanding a solid flip is based on having a greater common enemy.

Mission accomplished: "Denmark said Monday that it would spend 14.6 billion kroner ($2 billion) to bolster security in the strategic Arctic region near the United States and Russia."

The end of America's “pathological altruism” in immigration policy. Will Europe follow the trail America forges in the West? Or has the EU "Court of Justice" guaranteed more pathology there?

Via Instapundit, Trump: "the drones that were flying over New Jersey in large numbers were authorized to be flown by the FAA for research and various other reasons,” with private users and enhanced attention, to make a mini-hysteria. No enemies were involved. I suspected research purposes, but what kind?

Russia's horrific tolerance of battlefield casualties. Well, this did surprise me. But all I can really say is that Russian troops and civilians will accept the death toll--until they don't. Even Iranian religious fanaticism to attack eventually broke in the long Iran-Iraq War.

Maximum pressure on Iran requires more pressure on Russia: "Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine has fundamentally shifted and intensified the Russo-Iranian relationship." Each of them uses the other's resources to challenge America and expand their territory and influence.

Information operation: "The Philippines launched a comic book on Friday to counter what the country says is China’s disinformation campaign to push its expansive territorial claims in the South China Sea."

Guns: "The U.S. Navy expanded a contract with BAE Systems, awarding the company more money to upgrade and overhaul the service’s Mk 45 naval gun systems in an effort to improve their long-range strike and air defense capabilities, the company announced Monday."

NATO is patrolling the Baltic Sea because Russia (or their agents) is suspected of sabotage: "At least 11 Baltic cables have been damaged since October 2023[.]" Is Russia's provocation from a position of strength or from weakness in its war against Ukraine?

Suicide Squad: "Detonating a grenade under the chin rather than being captured. Using a fellow soldier to lure out attack drones. Removing body armor plates and helmets to enable faster attacks on foot. Writing pledges of allegiance to ... Kim Jong Un." Kim doesn't want troops "infected" by the outside world back.

China is unlikely to conquer Taiwan? "China lacks the experience to carry out such an operation and the Americans have pledged to aid in the defense of Taiwan." I am not filled with such confidence. 

Huh: "Swedish defense manufacturer Saab recently introduced Autonomous Ocean Core or AOC. This system allows naval commanders to remotely control ships." 

Russia is aggressive because it is an empire that doesn't accept it lost imperial holdings. People often neglect this because Russia has a contiguous empire rather than an overseas empire like Western countries pursued. In college a teaching assistant was very upset with me because I called the USSR an empire.

Wow: "For decades, the existence of the Parcae satellites was one of the U.S. government’s most closely guarded secrets, concealed even from those within much of the military establishment. It wasn’t until July 2023 that the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) acknowledged the existence of these satellites[.]" 

Ending destructive and divisive DEI in the military. We urge our services to think and act "purple"--jointly and not based on parochial service "colors". But encouraged our troops to think in virtually tribal terms about irrelevant genetic characteristics. But remember the military rots from the FOGOs down.

What was the purpose of the Winter War of 2022? FFS, Ukraine didn't want to be conquered by the brutal Russians intent on exterminating their nation; and by hard Cold War experience we should have learned that no buffer is deep enough for the Russians. Keep the bastards as far east as possible. Don't blame us.

The Last Hamas War is just another one if the Hamas fighters emerging from behind their human shields to reassert control as Israel withdraws are allowed to live. Will Israel pursue them in the shadows? Or are they being identified for a new round in this war? Israel needs to do something better to end these wars.

News from the Heart of Darkness: "The M23 rebel group, which has taken control of large parts of the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in recent years, now says it has captured the key city of Goma, the largest in the area, from government forces." The airport and part of the city exempted, maybe.

Huh (tip to Instapundit): "China touted its robotics advancements through a fleet of dancing humanoid robots at a festival in Beijing." Dance for you, kill you, whatever the CCP wants.

Putin absolutely has more territorial ambitions. Luckily, Ukrainians are willing to nip this in the bud right now--as long as America continues to provide military aid. How we will do that remains unclear.

A reminder that America did not cause the instability in the Middle East. Israel is equally innocent. The locals have a lot to fix within their societies before blaming others. And if they want to blame foreigners, the Turks who ruled much of the Middle East and North Africa for centuries should get the first look.

The HTS-led government of Syria issues a de-Baathification policy: "The victory conference separately announced the disbanding of all Assad regime institutions and its constitution." 

Ukraine is using drones to take down Russian fiber-optic wire-guided suicide FPV drones. The cycle of drone measures and counter-measures continues, with both sides putting air-to-air drones into service. As the prophecy foretold.

HTS is open to letting those Assad-supporting Russians stay if the payment is high enough: "Syria’s new government pressed Russia for compensation during its first talks with a Kremlin delegation since the ouster of President Bashar Assad." Does Russia have enough money to suppress poison gas memories?

Good: "The United States and Algeria formally pledged to deepen their militaries’ partnerships and pursue possible weapons exchanges and new joint asset deployments[.]" This keeps Russia out. And drone bases for dealing with jihadis in the Sahel is likely on tap after we were ejected from Niger.

I've seen Ted Galen Carpenter's prolific work since I started blogging. There is no foreign problem whose solution in his view doesn't involve a figurative or literal American retreat. Here's another. It's "Let the Wookie win" advice from him 24/7. I have zero respect for his advice.

The Philippines offers to eject the U.S. Army Typhon missile system if China will pretend to be peaceful: "President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. offered on Friday to remove a U.S. missile system from the Philippines if China halts what he called its 'aggressive and coercive behavior' in the disputed South China Sea."

Oh? "Russia's intercontinental ballistic missile program is in trouble, facing persistent struggles with its new Sarmat missile. And it doesn't help that the country has cut off expertise it once depended on by waging war on its neighbor." Imagine that. 

Is a U.S.-Venezuela showdown brewing?  "The bottom line is that the U.S. wants regime change, and the most telling sign toward that end was Rubio’s suggestion to review U.S. policies toward Chevron." We let Chevron resume oil production in Venezuela in exchange for free elections. Maduro did not comply.

Fingers crossed: "The Navy destroyer USS Fitzgerald (DDG-62) became the first warship to deploy with a program-of-record artificial intelligence (AI) platform. Its creators say the system will help the fleet predict and tackle maintenance needs in a far less disruptive fashion."

Providing security: "Sweden will provide Ukraine with 13.5 billion kronor (US$1.23 billion) in funding and equipment in its biggest military aid package yet, the government said on Thursday." Best to stop Russia in Ukraine before Russia turns its covetous gaze to the Baltic Sea region.

Israel and Russia no longer have a working relationship. It died with closer Russia-Iran ties and the end of Israel's need to bargain with Russia and show some restraint in Syria because Russia had bases there. How long before Israel is arming Ukraine and Armenia?

Sudan SITREP: "Instability and violence are becoming Sudan’s normal state of affairs."

Canada is a defense joke, unable to procure trucks let alone fighter jets, warships, and artillery. If Canada would focus on protecting their far north, they'd at least have an objective to define what they need to do. A secure North America is a foundation for American power projection.

If Americans in Congo need to be evacuated because of the eroding security situation there, the Marines won't be coming to rescue them, it seems.

Good observation: "Why is it that every time the Palestinian issue flares up, Arab nations are quick to offer condemnation but slow to offer real, tangible solutions?" Arab governments won't sacrifice because the "Arab street" obviously couldn't care less now.

Germany extends its military missions in the EU Red Sea presence, the UN mission to South Sudan, the EU naval mission to enforce an arms embargo on Libya, and the NATO Mediterranean mission to stop terrorist and arms smuggling in the sea. I'd like a focus on the Baltic Sea and Russia's Kaliningrad.

Is Mexico a friend or an enemy? Not sure that's the right question. Mexico has believed it can avoid difficult--and personally dangerous--decisions because we didn't care enough to pressure them to end the attacks on America across our border. We must change the terms of our relationship. Via Instapundit.

China lied about cheaply developing DeepSeek. Not too shocking. Via Instapundit.

Which is why I don't think Kim Jong Un wants his soldiers to survive their tour of war duty: "'When North Korean workers, who have lived their entire lives trapped in a restrictive system, experience life abroad, they come to see North Korea as nothing short of a prison,' Ahn said." Even seeing Russia at war.

Gazans work very hard to undermine my basic sympathy for them as people who are used by Hamas as human shields and cannon fodder.

The European Union has a mission: "The European Union on Friday started its support mission for the reopening of the Rafah border crossing between Egypt and the Gaza Strip." Will it work? The EU doesn't care! All is proceeding according to the EU plan.

Iran has a choice to make after its 2024 defeats: "God will provide, but not in terms of infrastructure restoration and restocking the military rocket and missile arsenal."

Maybe we should charge China for  the Navy to suppress the protection racket: "While the United States and its Western allies use warships and airstrikes against those who try to disrupt maritime trade, China prefers to bribe those who are attacking shipping to not attack Chinese ships." 

What is China's economic outlook? They mean in reality and not based on published Chinese statistics, of course. 

Russia used a UAV to destroy a Ukrainian USV in the Black Sea.

Is "counter-terrorism" a failure when the population supports terrorists? I think counter-terrorism is only appropriate when it is a law enforcement problem. Counter-insurgency is the way to go to separate people from terrorists. But I've long recognized pacifying an enemy population is hard. But we can't be brutal. 

The United States killed ISIL (ISIS) terrorists in Somalia with an air strike. The only good jihadi is a dead jihadis.

Russia is deploying at sea and working on a land-based Mach 9 Zircon anti-ship missile: "Zircon has capabilities that should be able to get past current American naval and land based air defense systems."

Complaints that America is picking a tariff and deportation fight with close ally Colombia ignores the fact that Colombia's peace deal with FARC to "end" their long leftist insurgency simply invited the Marxist insurgents into the government. Colombia was and may be a friend again. Now? Not so much.