Weekend Data Dump

People started playing around with the Sentinel radar ground surveillance satellite to see what it could do: "That’s when it was discovered that Sentinel could, using the right filters, detect Patriot air defense system radars night or day and in any weather." Space Force will be busy. And the problem is broader.

Russia's growing espionage--and more violent aspects--in Europe. Yeah, tell me I'm totally out of bounds wondering about the German "coup" plot.

Ukraine is using older tanks as artillery. America did the same thing when the Korean War got static:

 

Iran does its part to get Saudi Arabia to join the Abraham Accords: "Iran’s military tested new attack drones in the coastal area of the Gulf of Oman and near the strategic Strait of Hormuz Saturday as part of its ongoing annual drill, state TV reported."

Gunmen using armored vehicles attacked a prison in northern Mexico, and a number of prisoners escaped. I'm sometimes stunned that we haven't yet been dragged by drug gang violence into a war down there. 

Kim Jong-Un vowed an "exponential increase" in North Korea's nuclear arsenal. The old "kooks, spooks, and nukes" strategy remains in place.

Just a reminder that while Western analysts fanboyed Russia's "frozen conflict" in the Donbas from 2014 until the new 2022 invasion, it was not frozen: "During those years, Putin watched as Ukraine moved closer to the European Union and hosted NATO troops in Ukraine at training centers." Strategery.

I did not realize Ukrainian resistance to the USSR after World War II was this intense: "Ukrainian nationalist partisans fought Soviet rule for another decade, killing more than 30,000 Soviet soldiers, functionaries, and secret police. For its part, between 1945 and 1955, the Soviets killed more than 150,000 alleged guerrillas and sympathizers, while hundreds of thousands of western Ukrainians were deported to Siberia or Central Asia, and almost 90,000 were imprisoned." 

The NASA administrator warned about China's possible territorial objectives on the Moon (tip to Instapundit). Quite right to be concerned. Let's get on SMOD.

I hope Representative Santos is defeated in two years. Hopefully in a Republican primary. Sure, many proven liars are in Congress--and the White House. But Santos has clearly gone above and beyond on that score already. But after Democrats sent Biden to the White House and Fetterman to the Senate just to have (D)s hold the offices, I'm in no mood to do Democrats' dirty work to flip the House before 2024 rolls around and puts that question on the ballot.

Huh: "If Russia Is This Bad At Conventional Warfare, What Does That Tell Us About Its Nuclear Posture?" Excellent question. Welcome to the party, pal.

Boy, that escalated quickly. I mean, that really got out of hand fast.

Did Sweden get the Xi Jinping Flu Covid-19 response right? I have wondered if the duration of this pandemic is in part from our policies to alleviate the pandemic. I suspect a version of my "False Compassion" post on avoiding civilian casualties (and military casualties, as I note in this paper) in war applies here.

For Democrats, Hitler is immortal.

Did South Korea and America discuss joint management--not control--of some nuclear weapons in response to North Korea's drive for nukes?

ISIL terrorists killed 3 Egyptian police, possibly losing one terrorist in the attack.  

The first time China exported the Wuhan Flu, it tried to trick the West into remaining open to the virus with their "hug a Chinese person" campaign. Now China is issuing threats: "The Chinese government blasted COVID-19 testing requirements imposed on passengers from China and threatened countermeasures against countries involved, which include the U.S. and several European nations."

Huh: "Russia’s military leaders face calls for punishment after losing dozens of troops in one of the deadliest attacks yet launched by Ukraine." Is Russia finally reaching its death limit? I'm not gonna lie. I thought the limit was much lower.

India--under more direct assault by China--banned TikTok 2-1/2 years ago. Tip to instapundit.

Philippine President Marcos, Jr.'s visit to China seems futile. Better relations with China is defined as submitting to what China wants.

China wants Taiwan. First of all, America standing in the way of China's desire to crush and control Taiwan does not cause China to want to crush and control Taiwan. Some Westerners prefer to snipe at America for the resisting to avoid dealing with the destroying issue. Is that a "properly informed" and "finessed" policy for Australia?

One practical reason for not giving ATACMS to Ukraine is that the longer range weapons are out of production (a new missile is scheduled for introduction) and America needs all it has (and probably many more).

Strategypage's annual wars update.

Ah, Science! 

The Winter War of 2022 will continue as long as the Russians still want to conquer Ukraine, as long as Ukraine wants to liberate its territory, and as long as the West backs Ukraine. I too do not assume Russia can't win this war.

Yeah, an element within the right reacts against helping Ukraine because it "conflates the Ukraine War with U.S. southern border issues[.]" It is surely an outrage that Biden doesn't protect our southern border. By all means fight for that. But it is not linked to defeating Russia in Ukraine. Both are important. It is wrong to insist defending the border with Mexico is a prerequisite to defeating Russia. I just don't understand those conservatives.

Auto companies are building new factories to build electric vehicles. Even as the government has no interest in encouraging more reliable electricity generation. Tip to Instapundit. I wouldn't mind so much if the government wouldn't probably insist on closing actual gas stations to make room for EV charging capacity. "We're from the government. And we're here to help."

The Army wants additional air defense capabilities for Guam in particular. The Chinese navy threats to Guam could be much more complicated than we hope.

Maybe: "Facing growing protests late in the year, the Chinese government abandoned its zero-COVID policy with no apparent plan B." It sure seems like Plan B is making sure their epidemic spreads to the world. Again.

So ... 60 Minutes started the new year off by putting a green-tinged Blue-Anon false prophet on the air. It's amazing how you can have decades of credibility by being wrong in the ways your audience wishes you were right.

Never mind. Nothing to see. Move along. Tip to Treacher.

Collusion between Congress, the media, and the FBI to pretend there was a Russian cyber threat via Twitter in order to pressure Twitter into carrying out censorship. Via Instapundit. Tar. Feathers.

The Russians made taking Bakhmut a priority for no apparent good reason--and the Wagner mercenaries failed to take it.

And now for something completely different:

Russia moved their nuclear-capable Tu-95 bombers to the Far East to avoid Ukrainian drone strikes in Europe. So now they are within easy reach of Chinese aerial attacks.

A Sumy militia held the northeast Ukrainian city as the Russians swarmed in trying to reach Kiev. A platoon of Ukrainian paratroopers stopped the first rush before being ordered to withdraw, casting a giant shadow after that for the local defenders.

Some in NATO want to turn the goal of 2% of GDP spending on defense into a minimum floor. Am I missing something or is this just semantics? I know the 2014 agreement was not enforceable. But how could NATO make it a minimum now, overriding member legislatures? Also, nobody under the old agreement to reach 2% by 2024 was forbidden from spending more. 

Harassment: "Two rockets struck a base housing American troops in eastern Syria on Wednesday without causing any human or material losses, the U.S. military said." Or perhaps practice. Iran is the likely suspect.

Production of the M-113 replacement AMPV is being ramped up. The latter is already replacing M-113s taken from units to send to Ukraine. I assume more M-113s will be sent to Ukraine faster with this increased production.

Japan pledges to deepen its alliance with America as part of its military rearmament. Which basically means Japan's self-defense restrictions will continue to be broadened to allow Japan to defend American forces, too. Farther from Japan, naturally.

I heard that the ground is not freezing as fast in Ukraine as anticipated. On the other hand, Europe won't freeze and cave in to Russian pressure.

Poland will buy 116 more Abrams tanks. I assume this will eventually free up old Russian-designed (and Polish adapted) tanks to be sent to Ukraine.

Unless America expands its fossil fuels energy production rather than discourage it, this is nothing more than symbolic, right? "The first regular shipment of liquefied natural gas from the United States arrived in Germany on Tuesday, part of a wide-reaching effort to help the country replace energy supplies it previously received from Russia."

The BACN-equipped E-11A "Wi-Fi" in the sky": "The Air Force deployed a brand new version of one of its prized communications aircraft to Saudi Arabia, the service said in a Jan. 2 news release."

So ... Russia is kidnapping Ukrainian children.

Putin might want to reconsider his efforts to show he is firmly in charge of the war effort: "Criticism is mounting in Russia against the country's military commanders after dozens of Russian soldiers were killed in a Russian-occupied region in eastern Ukraine." As Putin's claims of restored Russian glory turn Russia's world upside down, shit might roll uphill.

The Canadian Inquisition. You'd have to be crazy to criticize Justin Trudeau! Tip to Instapundit. Visiting Canada now is getting closer to being as dangerous as visiting North Korea.

The mullahs' time of troubles. With good news: "Since 2021 Iranian influence in Iraq has visibly declined."

A high-tech lynching. And yes, the leftist media was a cheerleader for the baseless accusations. Via Instapundit. 

Follow the science on carbonated sugar drinks, you racists. Tip to Instapundit.

Once again, America has to worry that NATO ally Turkey will go to war with NATO ally Greece. Turkey might want to consider that they aren't as important to NATO any more, given Russian weakness. And NATO has a Plan B in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. Turkey under Erdogan probably needs NATO more than the reverse.

Twenty years ago a man kidnapped, raped, and murdered his ex-girlfriend. Twenty years later a woman is executed for the crime! America is obviously a misogynistic country that denies--because it delays--justice.

The Nutball Queen: "In a dry dock near the entrance to the Persian Gulf, Iran’s sectarian naval force is converting a former merchant container ship into a drone aircraft carrier, according to satellite and open source photos published last week by USNI News contributor H I Sutton." Well, it isn't my modularized auxiliary cruiser idea. But kind of close.

Yawn: "Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday sent a frigate armed with the country's latest Zircon hypersonic missile on a trans-ocean cruise in a show of force as tensions with the West escalate over the war in Ukraine." You go, girl! "But TDR", you say, "it has the totally awesome Zircon!" Add it to the awesome list.

The United States will reopen its Solomon Islands embassy. Good. We don't want to do this again to keep our supply lines to Australia open.

France will send old AMX-10 heavy armored cars and armored personnel carriers to Ukraine. The AMX-10 is not in any way, shape, or form a tank. No matter who says it is a tank. Or like a tank. Or kind of a tank. While I could be wrong, I don't think the old design is a major improvement over wheeled vehicles carrying modern anti-tank missiles. Nor do I think the vehicle's speed will protect it from enemy modern anti-tank missiles. But this is still good news.

The 2nd Armored Brigade of the 3rd Infantry Division, with its most up-to-date combat vehicles, will go to the National Training Center to simulate deploying to a distant battlefield and fighting.

America discovered it needed to give soldiers breaks from combat tours to hold off the onset of PTSD (combat fatigue). Ukraine is doing that. I hope this is widespread.

It's a shame orbital debris isn't a defense against incoming asteroids.

Do China's carriers mean that the Chinese navy can operate in new areas, causing a problem for us? I don't know if the problems of carrier survivability means China has no intention of using their carriers for more than peacetime presence or fights against small countries.

Germany knows it needs to rebuild its once-powerful West German army. But one component, the new Puma infantry fighting vehicle, failed spectacularly: "In one exercise the 18 Pumas involved all failed. Sixteen were soon completely unusable and two Pumas ended the exercise with limited usefulness. The list of Puma systems that broke down was long and major changes were obviously needed to make the key systems operational and reliable." Oddly, past use of Puma training simulators didn't reveal the problems. I mean, who would program them to reflect vehicle reality?

Iran is mad at France. When it comes to the Easily Excitable--whether Sunni or Shia--what doesn't anger them?

So what if Russia did destroy a HIMARS in Ukrainian service? It's not like they are invulnerable. Replace it. That's what happens in war. 

The Invasion of the Policy Snatchers?

Will Sweden's rearmament from it's post-Cold War nadir lead Sweden to rethink its force structure to deploy forces to defend NATO's frontiers?

The Czech Republic will meet the NATO 2% of GDP defense spending goal by the 2024 deadline.

An ARNG engineer company is heading to Camp Lemonnier in Djibouti, America's only real base--even if we don't like to admit it--in Africa. The article is vague on the destination. Unless I'm assuming too much. (Although that's a battle from 2019. I don't know what has been reestablished there.) The base sensitivity issue is why I proposed an alternative form of base.

The F-15EX with 12 air-to-air missiles is as close to a "arsenal plane" missile truck that we have. I assume it would work with F-35s that spot for the F-15EX launchers.

Could AUKUS strain our ability to build our own SSNs? Shame on us if we're operating on that narrow of a margin.

Saying America backed off a "two war" goal over the last 10 years as force structure went down really overstates the idea that we maintained that peacetime capacity after the Cold War. Or ever, really. (And the Clinton-era strategy was not a two-war concept.) But the author makes a valid point about the risk of a one-war capacity. Although the strategic myopia of arguing a two-war standard should include the ability to support a full war logistically (that is, Ukraine 2.0) while fighting another directly is staggering.

The Assad family business continues to walk the tightrope toward survival in the simmering Syria multi-war. Also: "Syria’s economy has hit its lowest point since the start of its civil war nearly 12 years ago, with spiraling inflation, a currency plunge and severe fuel shortages in both government-run and rebel-held areas."

Russia can't afford the massive military expansion it announced.

The United States Navy conducted a Taiwan Strait transit.

The Biden administration calls drawing down the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for political goals a top accomplishment of 2022. Of course it does. Tip to Instapundit.

Ukraine will get 50 Bradley (American) and 40 Marder (German) infantry fighting vehicles, in addition to the French package that includes an unknown number of heavy AMX-10 recon armored cars. Elsewhere I heard Germany will provide more Patriot air defense systems.

American and European chips are making into the drones Russia is using to bombard Ukraine. Well that's just effing great.

Putin's one-man insane clown posse: "Russia's former president lashed out at the US on Thursday in a statement calling for the country's warships, armed with hypersonic missiles, to be stationed close to Washington, DC." Wait. What? Are there perhaps problems with your nukes?

I hope III Corps was ordered to heightened readiness for the president's visit: "Just days before U.S. President Joe Biden's visit to Mexico, the country was thrown into turmoil as alleged cartel members blocked off an airport and areas outside a local army base, and limited access to the city of Culiacan, in an unsuccessful effort to thwart the capture of drug trafficker Ovidio Guzmán."

LOL!

 

We have Speaker McCarthy after some drama. The drama doesn't bother me. I'd have preferred this drama take place behind closed doors before the first vote to avoid giving Democrats and the media from [checks notes] pouncing. But democracy is some ugly sausage-making. We saw it. As to this drama being a threat to our democracy? Democrats can't simultaneously make that claim and laugh while munching popcorn. So here we go. With a body that can't pass much with a Democratic Senate and a Biden veto standing in the way. With the media cheerleading the Democrats all the way. All the House has is the power to deny Democrats new laws and the power of oversight investigations.

More on the Zircon-equipped Russian frigate, and the bigger issue of the Red Storm Writhing.

Will Congress fund the Navy's sealift program? Geography requires more sealift than we have.

America is sending Sea Sparrow (RIM-7) air defense missiles to Ukraine, which can be fired by Ukraine's BUK launchers.

Turkey is supporting Ukraine without alienating Russia. Turkey has a long history of wars with Russia. They usually didn't go well for Turkey. Turkey clearly has reason to keep Russia as far from Turkey as possible. But they have Syria in common.

Romania is buying Naval Strike Missile coastal defense systems. Ukraine has shown how the Russian surface fleet can be kept away with a minimal anti-ship missile capability.

The latest American arms package for Ukraine. More 105mm howitzers are included. The first time I assumed this was to equip airmobile units. Which would be useful for crossing the Dnieper River. Now I wonder if it as simple as a shortage of 155mm rounds for the larger pieces.

Prince Harry by all accounts fought bravely in Afghanistan. I can only speculate that his current humiliating experience is a bad bout of Post-Meghan Stress Disorder. Why won't they go away?

Oh, I heard that the House of Representative rule put in effect that one member can call for a vote to remove the Speaker is actually a long-standing rule that was removed by Pelosi. Admittedly the rule was almost entirely dormant in practice. Still ... tradition. 

Iranian protests continue--although not widespread--despite regime suppression efforts. Will the fractured protest movements hinder new protests?

[Oops. Published this a day early. So more will follow below.]

We figured out Roman concrete? Tip to Instapundit.  

The CCP is living in interesting times: "Xi, in short, has no viable options because the coronavirus is devastating China as the country is beset by simultaneous crises: accelerating debt defaults, collapsing property prices, a contracting economy, worsening food shortages, and a deteriorating environment."

Swing and a miss. Trump really drove them mad. 

South Korea modernizes its air force.

Apparent terrorist attack on Las Vegas solar energy plant. The man arrested has a Moslem name but there is nothing said linking this to Islamic terrorism. But it is called a terrorist attack. The damage could take two years to repair.

A step toward the University of Michigan becoming a mediocre university. Commissars ruin armies. They'll ruin higher education, too.

Despite indications of divisions at the top over how to suppress Iranian protests, the supreme leader has chosen a course: "Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei continues to empower hardline security figures to enforce his uncompromising position toward the protests and mandatory hijab law." If the top splits with some siding with the protesters, that will be significant.

Via Instapundit, ideological capture of scientific institutions wrecks innovation. When a scientist's shirt is subject of debate rather than the achievement, we've got problems.

Brexit implementation sadly had Covid-19 step on it. Will the proto-imperial EU reconquer Britain? "Conservative voters now think the cost of Brexit outweighs its benefits for the first time, a new poll has found." Add in EU efforts to punish Britain, and "Brexit" gets blamed. This depresses me.

Pakistan wants $16 billion from the world to repair massive flood damage. I say ask your new best buddy China for the money.

To be fair, these morons have made the value of their degree worthless. So why shouldn't they demand tuition and food be "free" for them? Tip to Instapundit.

We've had other power station attacks. Is the Las Vegas attack related? Or did the others just give this terrorist the idea? 

Since I accidentally posted WDD a day early, I've had an idea of how this would work if I posted this and updated it through the week. I'd considered that option. It would keep the additions more timely. But ultimately I like using WDD as an incubator for single posts. I routinely take paragraphs out over the week and turn them into single posts. I value that role. So revel in the old days of weekly news magazines (and try not to think about the monthly versions).

Huh: "German police have taken into custody a 32-year-old Iranian citizen suspected of having procured deadly poisons cyanide and ricin to commit an 'Islamist-motivated' attack, authorities in western Germany said on Sunday." The poisons were not found, however. Hmmm.

#WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings Until Russia Decides It Can

Can the West make Russia feel secure enough not to threaten the West? No. The threats are inside their heads and only the Russians can fix that.

I don't think Russia would long believe any Western security guarantees: 

Here is Putin in full flow on 30 September speaking of the ‘dictatorship of the Western elites’ and how the ‘complete renunciation of what it means to be human, the overthrow of faith and traditional values, and the suppression of freedom are coming to resemble a “religion in reverse” – pure Satanism.’ Invocations of Satanism are now routine. Former President Medvedev, who admittedly has gone increasingly batty, spoke in November  of a sacred fight against Satanism. The aim of the war was to ‘stop the supreme ruler of Hell, whatever name he uses - Satan, Lucifer or Iblis,’ [Iblis is the Islamic counterpart of Satan]  adding that the fight was against ‘crazy Nazi drug addicts’ in Ukraine backed by Westerners who had ‘saliva running down their chins from degeneracy.’

Until Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014, NATO was disarming and in 1997 promised not to move NATO's defenses east. NATO had no logistics infrastructure in the east and no actual war plans to defend the east. 

Also, the UN system itself is supposed to be a collective security system that protects Russia. 

Yet Russia believes NATO was a threat. A threat great enough to justify wars to restore Russia's old Soviet boundaries.

Face it, only pushing its borders west makes Russia feel more secure. Until they don't and need to push west some more. 

As the initial author notes:

Trying to find a way to turn guarantees to be protected against Satanism into treaty language would obviously be something of a stretch. 

The Russians are digging deeper into this insanity:

Russian Orthodox Patriarch Kirill, a powerful ally of President Vladimir Putin, is embracing the rhetoric of the mediaeval crusades in urging support for Moscow's offensive in eastern Ukraine.

It doesn't even matter that Putin might not believe that he is on a crusade battling Hell itself. He may be riding a tiger of subordinates and subjects who do believe it and would punish Putin for suddenly saying, "Never mind."

Remember that Russia promised to respect Ukraine's independence and territorial integrity in 1994 in the Budapest Memorandum. Why would Putin expect NATO allegedly in league with Satan to be more honest than himself? 

It is beyond the West's ability to make Russia feel secure. Russia needs national therapy to stop being its own worst enemy. 

Or a more imminent and obvious threat to divert Russia's attention.

Have a super sparkly totally sane day.

NOTE: Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

Fascistivus

If we're going to keep witnessing this January 6th celebration nonsense, let's turn the dials to 11. I propose January 6th be known as Fascistivus.

Has it been two years already since "our democracy" was nearly overthrown by rioters who inexplicably did not bring their firearms to the insurrection?

I say we need to commemorate this glorious Wag the Dog pageant of the Resistance fighting back against evil Nazis trying to take over the government by the well established precedent of entering the Capitol Building and chanting.

Key elements  of this Fascistivus for the rest of us include:

The Fascistivus Speaker's podium, because when you are serious about taking control of the government, you need a symbol of power as if you'd drawn a freaking magical sword from a rock.

The Fascistivus dinner. Bacon and Bud Light.

The airing of micro-grievances. Your feelings about January 6th are all that matter. No matter where you were or what the threat was. Expressed on Twitter. With no more than 280 characters.

The feats of hysteria. Just review the House January 6th Committee proceedings. Or any media story from 2021-2022 about why the awful riot was in fact a threat to our democracy. If you want the executive summary, just watch the Biden speech from the gates of Hell about how half of America is a threat to "our democracy." 

Simply screaming to the skies is acceptable.

Fascistivus miracles. Well, the fact that the coup attempt that involved no firearms and lots of insurrectionists walking between the velvet ropes inside the Capitol Building taking selfies inexplicably failed to seize the government and begin the Trumptatorship is the biggest miracle. 

Even after Trump had four years to prepare his long anticipated Hitler 2.0 plot, somehow it failed. Your personal survival of the insurrection is also a miracle. So there are lots of miracles that day. 

Except for the one unarmed protester who the Capitol Police shot and killed as she tried to enter the Capitol Building.

A Day of Remembrance and Vigilance!

So there you go. Fascistivus. Never forget the brave Resistance that stopped fascism in its tracks that fateful day. It was so damned close.

[Seriously, concerning January 6, 2021. I was horrified at the riot as it happened. But it was a riot grown out of a broader protest, and not an insurrection. 

All protests seek to delay government proceedings--like Code Pink protests in Senate hearing rooms or the Democratic months-long takeover of the Wisconsin capitol building (was the pro-Trump protester mistake not chanting "This is what democracy looks like" when they entered the Capitol?)--or to delay daily life of people stuck in the protests--or more, like the BLM/Antifa protests and subset of riots in 2020--to draw attention to proclaimed grievances.

The protests at the Capitol Building were nothing more than a cry of grievances and a call for delay to sort things out--until some got way out of hand. I think they were misguided. But I think the same of so many leftists protesters who get out of hand in their actions.

Punish those involved appropriately. And stop pretending we were close to tyranny on January 6th. As Biden said, you need more than guns to take over the federal government--like F-15s and perhaps nukes.

The government bureaucracy's--through the FBI--increasing indirect control of social media was a far greater step toward tyranny.]

UPDATE: Darn. This holiday conflicts with another horror our nation endured on another January 6th.

UPDATE: Oh, and notwithstanding the continuing claims by many Democrats, five people were not killed in that riot (and some claims are that 5 officers were killed). One unarmed woman was shot and killed by the Capitol Police. One officer died from causes unrelated to the riot long after the riot was over. And three protesters died from health reasons unrelated to the riot.

NOTE: Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

Looking For Friends in a Dangerous Neighborhood

The Saudis want to survive in a dangerous region and will not risk relying on a single ally deemed to be unreliable.

The Saudis are making friends in Peking:

"Saudi Arabia's foreign minister said on Sunday that Iran's Gulf Arab neighbours would act to shore up their security if Tehran were to obtain nuclear weapons." 

I disagree with this diagnosis of the China-Saudi diplomatic opening:

The new strategic-partnership agreement between China and Saudi Arabia illustrates how autocracies are finding common cause in resisting Western pressure on human rights, even if they sometimes find themselves on opposite sides of a conflict. 

The Saudis have had a long defense relationship with largely Christian and democratic America. As far as I can tell, there have been problems on two occasions since World War II. 

In the late 1970s when in the wake of the Vietnam War and the USSR's apparent surge in power, American resolve to protect the Saudis led Saudi Arabia to reach out to China.

And now when America's retreat from Afghanistan and odd Democratic love of Iran makes the Saudis doubt American resolve to protect the Saudis.

So no, I don't think the Saudi outreach to the Chinese has anything at all to do with thinking fellow Chinese autocrats are natural allies. Atheist autocrats, keep in mind.

And linking the Saudis to their hated enemy, Persian and Shia Iran, just because China has relations with Iran is ridiculous.

This assessment from the diagnosis undermines the theory of autocrats sticking together:

“The Biden administration wanted to punish Saudi Arabia for Khashoggi’s death and the war in Yemen, so they tried to isolate it and characterize it as a pariah state. It is understandable that the Saudis are trying to diversify partnerships if they see the United States as unreliable,” he said.

Exactly. Aside from whether you think the Biden administration is right or wrong about Saudi actions, the Saudi motivation is worrying about America's reliability as an ally. 

Add in to the Saudi worries about America is that they clearly don't think much of encouraging Iran to be a successful regional partner. 

So the Saudis are reacting as they did before. Saudi Arabia bought options on Pakistani nuclear warheads long ago. And the Saudis once hired Pakistani army units to be based inside Saudi Arabia for protection. 

I imagine recent news of closer Saudi-China relations could include replacing Saudi Arabia's old and likely non-operational Chinese-made IRBMs and MRBMs to carry the nuclear warheads purchased when the Saudis doubted American resolve the last time. Saudi ties to China may put pressure on Pakistan to carry out their old nuclear warhead deal even if Pakistan has second thoughts.

Indeed, the Saudi worries reflect a region-wide Arab worry about living in a dangerous neighborhood.

Anyway, I don't think we need to raise an issue of governance philosophy to explain Saudi moves toward China when a more basic issue of survival can explain Saudi actions. When the Saudis have a little more faith in America's willingness to help them, the Chinese ties will wane again.

NOTE: Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

The Suicidal Imperial Instinct

Russia doesn't recognize that former subjects can remain former subjects. How much will Russia lose trying to attain that goal?

Russia needs to stop viewing its former subjects as natural future subjects: 

The Russian imperial itch is so deeply embedded, it must be excised not just from Russian capability but from the intention and mindset of elites and in the popular imagination. That is hard to achieve when so many believe in it as fervently as a religion – even the Russian Orthodox Church invokes a messianism in Russia’s imperial 'rights'. 

I'm sick of hearing about how we're supposed to accept understand Russian territorial objectives.

As I've said:

I'm tired of hearing how we need to understand Russia's security worries and accept their demands for land to ease their worries.

Maybe defeat in Ukraine can start that process:

Putin bit off more than he can chew in Ukraine. His only hope is to negotiate deals with Ukraine, NATO, India, South Korea, and Japan to let Russia pivot to Asia to fend off Chinese threats to Russian interests in Central Asia and the Far East.

But I'm guessing that losing control of some of its Far East territory to China will be required for the beginning of wisdom in Moscow. 

But if Putin doesn't get a whack with the clue bat, Putin may take down Russia with him in his Viking funeral ride through Ukraine.

#WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings

NOTE: Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

Bargain Hunting for the Price of Freedom

Taiwan is wealthy enough to spend more for defending their free island democracy. Cutting corners will just cut throats.

I'm not exactly against this capability: 

For Taiwan to become an indigestible porcupine, it must prioritize the most resilient and lethal asymmetric systems against an amphibious invasion.

Yes, those weapons are great. Get anti-ship and air defense missiles. Deploy naval mines. No argument from me on that.

Yet I think "asymmetrical" strategies are a trendy term masquerading as a defense policy. It seems like a promised cheaper shortcut to "cleverly" unhinge an enemy attack.

A strategy focused on increasing the price to China for defeating Taiwan founders on China's possible sudden willingness to endure more casualties than Taiwan can inflict. 

Taiwan of course needs to inflict losses on invading Chinese forces. But in the end, Taiwan needs to be able to drive the invaders into the sea--and America may need to help directly--as I argued in Military Review. 

Taiwan has to pay the price to defend everywhere.

NOTE: Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

The Winter War of 2022 Goes Over the Top

Does Ukraine or Russia strike first with a big push? And will it be the battle to end all battles?

Russia appears to be gearing up for fighting in Luhansk province. Is it an effort to resume the offensive? Fight a defensive battle against Ukraine's counteroffensive? Or a spoiling attack to unhinge Ukraine's offensive actions?

In Donetsk, the Russian Wagner Group attacks are sputtering out. I wondered if Russia was trying to tie down Ukrainian forces to keep them from interfering with some other plan. If that's the plan, it isn't working:

The Russian attacks are supposed to tie down a lot of Ukrainian troops but that does not happen and it is Russia that is losing lots of its most effective troops every week without any useful gains.

In the south, Russia appears to be digging in with no offensive intent. That is where there is much speculation about a Ukrainian winter offensive.

And of course, there is still speculation that Russia may again attempt to capture Kiev by reopening the northern front, possibly including attacks from Belarus territory. Can Putin push Belarus to join the war by sending in its army, too?

This seems to indicate a stalemate:

Fighting in Ukraine is currently at a deadlock as neither Ukraine nor Russia can make significant advances, the head of the Ukrainian military intelligence agency has said, while Kyiv waits for more advanced weapons from Western allies.

But the agency head, Budanov, actually specified that Russia is "completely at a dead end" and stalled; while Ukraine can't defeat the Russians in "all directions comprehensively." 

So sure, Ukraine can't carry out a broad counteroffensive all along the front. I don't think that limitation has been in question. And Russia's ever-shrinking offensive is shrinking to nothing until it can rebuild its ground forces.

As the battlefield hangs in the balance, the next offensive by whoever manages to initiate it has a lot riding on it. And a lot of opportunity to score a big victory that pushes momentum perhaps relentlessly in the direction of victory in the war.

If neither side can inflict a strategic battlefield defeat on the other, how can the Winter War of 2022 end?  

When one side's logistics fail. When one side's military and civilian morale collapses. When one side can't increase its power to win and nobody is likely to help them. Or when losing seems like a better outcome than continuing to fight.

My hopes rest on Russia enduring the second or, if Ukraine can't inflict a major battlefield defeat on Russia this winter, Russia concluding the fourth.

However the war unfolds, Putin seems determined to fight it in the new year:

Putin stated that “Russia’s sovereign, independent, and secure future depends only on us, on our strength and determination” and that 2022 “was a year of difficult, necessary decisions, of important steps toward achieving the full sovereignty of Russia and the powerful consolidation of our society.”[1] He added that the events of 2022 “became the milestone that laid the foundation of our new common future, our new true independence.” He continued: “That is what we are fighting for even today, we are defending our people on our own historical territories in the new Russian Federation Subjects [the illegally annexed territories of Ukraine].” This speech continued Putin’s rhetorical claims not only that Russia has historical rights to Ukraine, but also that Russia’s independence and sovereignty depend on regaining control of Ukraine. Putin thereby attempts to cast victory in the war as essential to Russia’s continued existence as an independent state.

So Putin will rely on the army to keep fighting. Indeed, Lavrov may be right about the Russian army: 

Moscow's proposals for settlement in Ukraine are well known to Kyiv and either Ukraine fulfils them for their own good or the Russian army will decide the issue, TASS agency quoted Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov as saying.

But the Russian army might decide Putin and Lavrov should hang by their heels from lamp posts.

UPDATE (Thursday): Putin claims to be fighting Satan in Ukraine yet proclaims a Orthodox Christmas ceasefire? 

Don't fall for this. Russia would like a permanent ceasefire to prevent Ukraine from taking back more land. And allow Russia the time to rebuild their army and relaunch the invasion at a future date.

Ukraine should raise Russia's ceasefire vow not to ever attack Russian civilian targets inside Russia.

UPDATE (Friday): The ceasefire did not hold. It was just Russian propaganda trying to make Ukraine look like an obstacle to peace. In reality, Russian civilians face no threat from Ukrainians on Orthodox Christmas. And if Russia wanted Ukrainian citizens free from attacks on the holiday, all Russia had to do was not bombard Ukrainian cities.

UPDATE: Interesting:

The United States is of the view that Russian President Vladimir Putin's ally Yevgeny Prigozhin, who is the founder of Russia's most powerful mercenary group, is interested in taking control of salt and gypsum from mines near the Ukrainian-held city of Bakhmut, a White House official said on Thursday.

Russia's offensive has largely shrunk to the effort to take Bakhmut. And the method of subcontracting that offensive to a private entity recalls this information I read a month before Russia's invasion:

How ... feudal: "[Russia's small wars] are financed by members of Putin’s inner circle. They don’t come directly out of state budgets. ... The oligarchs who funded the annexation of Crimea, for example, received a multibillion-dollar contract to build a bridge connecting that peninsula over the Kerch Strait to Russia." This means of finance requires short and/or small victorious wars.Which the Russians hope their nuclear weapons can enforce after achieving gains.

That method can't finance an entire war. And it may have over-reached with the Bakhmut objective despite relying on released-prisoner cannon fodder. 

UPDATE (Saturday): Is it my imagination or am I reading and hearing more about a Ukrainian spring counteroffensive? What happened to the long-anticipated winter counteroffensive? Is that off? Is this spring emphasis misdirection?

UPDATE (Sunday): ISW reports that the Ukrainians and Russians are building up for possible Ukrainian counteroffensives in Luhansk province and Zaporizhia province.

With everyone looking in those two spots, is there room for a supporting Ukrainian river crossing in Kherson combined with airmobile landings and a minor amphibious operation to supplement a Zaporizhia operation and divide Russian attention?

NOTE: ISW updates continue here.

Weekend Data Dump

Happy New Year! I remain an optimist for the long run notwithstanding short-term serious worries about America. I remain confident my personal life will remain fine (enough) until the long run arrives. May your personal lives remain fine enough. And may we shorten America's short-term problems with wise enough policies to hasten the long run. Fingers crossed.

A week ago China said it will deepen its ties with Russia. But this seems to set parameters on that claim: "'With regard to the Ukraine crisis, we have consistently upheld the fundamental principles of objectivity and impartiality, without favoring one side or the other, or adding fuel to the fire, still less seeking selfish gains from the situation,' Wang said, according to an official text of his remarks." If true, this indicates China won't arm Russia and risk sanctions by the West. But isn't buying Russian fossil fuels at a steep discount, which Russia can no longer sell to the West, a "selfish gain from the situation"? Also, doesn't China have an interesting interest in refusing to sell weapons to Russia?

Europeans begin to train with stealth aircraft in the mix.

It sure would be nice if the long-dysfunctional KC-46 program is finally on the right path.

Are there more of these power station attacks now? Or do we just see more national news on these local incidents now?

It is unclear if any North Korean drone was shot down; but one South Korean plane crashed on take off: "South Korea’s military fired warning shots, scrambled fighter jets and flew surveillance assets across the heavily fortified border with North Korea on Monday, after North Korean drones violated its airspace for the first time in five years, officials said."

Japan is getting serious about defending itself. Well, a peace constitution is not a suicide pact. 

This seems unlikely to me. Unless Russia is somehow behind those power station attacks in America.

Nothing to Xi. Move along. Tip to Instapundit.

This is an extreme example, but do you really want it theoretically possible for 10 states to elect the president if all their voters vote 100% for one candidate? Because 9 states have half the population. Add one small state and that's it under popular vote proposals. Keep the Electoral College to encourage a winner broadly acceptable across the country.

Dave Barry's year in review "inside the big bag of stupid that was 2022". I'd forgotten about testicle tanning.

Corruption and Iran undermine Iraq's security and democracy. At least Iran is weakened for now. Iraq desperately needs rule of law. But the Iraqis did learn what happened when they asked Americans to leave in 2011: "Most Iraqis want ... to keep the small (2,500) force of Western (mainly American) troops in Iraq."

Taiwan's new SEAD drone.

The world retreats from making stuff in China.

Has America pivoted enough to INDOPACOM? Well, I don't want too much forward deployed at limited bases to ease China's problems in Pearl Harboring us and let China exploit superior shipbuilding capacity.

China's artificial island fortresses in the South China Sea. I remain undecided about whether they are Chinese power projection platforms or targets that will be scraped flat in a war. Which the article admits is possible.

The Newspeak Dictionary in action. It's just government censorship with extra steps. One might call it fascistic. Yes, this was done during Trump and Biden years. Is this a bipartisan problem or a problem of a bureaucracy doing what it wants regardless of who is in the White House?

That's a start: "Taiwan will extend compulsory military service from its current four months to one year starting from 2024, President Tsai Ing-wen announced on Tuesday[.]"

Speaking of wondering whether an island is a power projection platform or a missile magnet: "Lawmakers will require the defense secretary to create a federally funded research and development center that can independently assess the Pentagon’s plans to build an integrated air-and-missile defense architecture to defend Guam[.]"

Did the Twitter files show Biden committed an impeachable offense? Maybe. Perhaps even probably. But I think Democrats would enjoy Republicans doing their dirty work even as Democrats demonize and fundraise off of Republicans for impeaching Biden. And now for something completely different:

Can the Army recruit enough to maintain its combat capability? Will the Army shrink its combat brigades to fix that problem?

Forecasting 2023 in the Winter War of 2022. Will Russia's spring offensive fail or succeed? Ukraine liberates all its territory by spring? The war will drag on and on, with the key internal Russian political developments? Superior logistics lead to Ukraine's victory some time in 2023? More of the same Russian grinding frontal assaults and bombardment of Ukraine's cities, with the question of Ukraine's strategic reserve the main variable?

Ukraine has a problem maintaining the more modern Russian armored vehicles it has captured.

I did wonder if this was Putin's intent: "Putin is likely concerned over the lack of support for his war in Ukraine among elites and may be setting information conditions for the nationalization of their property. "

The death of free Canada. Yeah, I used to enjoy vacationing in Canada. Now only responsibilities get me there. Let's go, Justin.

Despite doomsday talk, I think we'll be fine. It is just now-centric thinking to believe the time we are living through is the worst and most dangerous in history, likely leading to the end of the world. In some ways it just seems like religion taking on the color of science to predict end times because of so much "sin"--like not sorting your garbage in recycling bins or using fossil fuels. Take a breath and live your life. And stop bothering me, please.

Could flying through plumes spewing from Saturn's moon, Enceladus, detect microscopic life there? Tip to Instapundit.

Promoting the factionalizing of the Russian military: "Ukrainian intelligence reported that a Wagner Group-linked Russian officer was appointed commander of the Russian Western Military District (WMD)." That doesn't seem wise.

The Russians and Ukrainians are sparring and preparing for something in Zaporizhia province. Will Ukraine strike? Will Russia launch an offensive or just a spoiling attack to stall and weaken a Ukrainian counteroffensive?

Iranian protest organizers want people to take the initiative on protesting rather than waiting for directions from organizers.

Russia continues to peddle the fantasy that Ukraine is controlled by the West in order to pressure the West into negotiating directly with Russia to push Ukraine into an agreement that allows Russia to rebuild its army and renew the war at a future date. Hey, the Taliban tricked America into doing exactly that, which de-legitimized the Afghan government to good effect. We must insist Russia negotiates directly with Ukraine when the time comes.

Japan will mine rare earths from the seabed to break China's stranglehold on the vital raw material. It's broad resistance.

I don't understand why Title 42 is vital to defend the border. One, the border isn't secure with the pandemic clause in effect (but don't mention the "kids in cages" now!). Two, why the Hell do we need Title 42 to defend the border? And three, why is the Supreme Court acting as a temporary legislative branch by extending Title 42?

SOUTHCOM is so short of resources that it will be grateful to get a flotilla of LCS. The last stop before the SINKEX, I imagine. As an aside, I think the RAND guy quoted was the only good teaching assistant in my majors that I had in college.

Serious adult leadership would have already approved this energy resource. I assume "activist" toddler tantrums will prove supreme. 

I have no idea if their predictive power is any good: "The global economy likely faces a decade of sluggish growth, according to Daniel Lacalle, author and chief economist at Tressis Gestion."

So what's doing to happen in the Syria multi-war now? "The Turkish, Syrian and Russian defense ministers have held previously unannounced talks in Moscow, the Turkish and Russian defense ministries said on Wednesday."

North Korea plans to boost its military power. By design, all North Korea has are nukes.

Battling Iranian oil smuggling.

Where oil impoverishes. Directly from oil revenue theft and indirectly from the corruption that flourished to steal oil revenue and the jihadi violence that flourished. But there is hope.

Israel will focus on the Iran threat and working to get Saudi Arabia in the Abraham Accords. Two sides of the same coin, really.

German weakness emboldens Russia. Well, Russian espionage against Germany doesn't prove the author's warnings about Russian hybrid warfare. Which is a BS over-hyped concept. But sure, Germany has been a disappointment. Despite a recent flicker of hope. But by all means get back to me if we find something interesting about that foiled "coup" in Germany that generates no news here.

Interesting: "Japan plans to site surface-to-air missiles on Taiwan’s doorstep in a move to shore up defenses in the Nansei Island chain, a defense official said Wednesday." Japan's increased military power will have a shield to move south to join America in the defense of Taiwan.

Let's hope the media and Democrats don't dig up more Santos cases. The Republican House edge is slim. Perhaps Republicans need to look for Democratic problems as insurance. Although I guess Senator Blumenthal got a pass for his lie. And Senator Elizabeth Warren. And Reps Schiff and Swalwell. Oh, and let's talk Biden. Santos is scum. But let's not pretend this is new. And now for something completely different (and yes, I know he's a representative-elect):

Claims of rapidly achieving a pivot to the Pacific is premature. Basically, despite the focus on increasing American assets, the American logistics infrastructure isn't there yet to support that.

Well that's surely a morale booster for new Russian soldiers, eh?

Hmmm: "Some elements of the Iranian regime are increasingly framing the protest movement as an insurgency."

Ukraine wants a peace summit by the end of February 2023. Is this timing to try to exploit a victorious Ukrainian winter counteroffensive? And would it also be a safety net if the counteroffensive fails, leaving Ukraine to face a possible renewed Russian spring offensive? And is part of the safety net getting more NATO support after visibly trying to get the Russians to talk peace?

To be fair, we've been hearing about Russia running out of ammo for a while now: "The defense minister of Baltic ally Lithuania voiced skepticism over the recent Pentagon assessment that Russia, after months of fighting Ukraine and slapped with western sanctions, would deplete its fully-serviceable ammunition stockpiles by early 2023."

France pledged more weapons supplies to Ukraine. 

In 2023 the 3rd Marine Littoral Regiment will be declared to have initial operational capability. It's organization is still in flux. Good. Because: "I'm confused. The Marines reorganized to hop across islands to help the Navy fight the Chinese navy. But the new Marine Littoral Regiment has [checks notes] one anti-ship missile battery." I realize HIMARS are being adapted for anti-ship missions. But still. And I have deep concerns about the Light Amphibious Warfare design.

People who will remain warm this winter: Germans should be honored to freeze in order to "save the planet". And the Green Freeze is coming here, have no doubt. Ef the Green fanatics. Tips to Instapundit.

The U.S. won't let Turkey buy (or help produce) F-35s, and rejected Turkey's attempt to buy new and upgrade old F-16s. Over Turkey's expansive sea claims and intervention in Libya. How will this affect Sweden and Finland trying to join NATO, eh? There is still hope on the F-16 issue. How will that affect Turkey's blockade of Sweden and Finland?

The result might not be better for the West, but it will absolutely be fatal to Putin and those around him: "Putin is losing sight of the fact that Russians have, twice in the last century, overthrown governments that caused great harm to Russia. Putin believes this won’t happen to him but then so did the Tsars and their communist successors."

Hopefully Elon Musk can expose enough to depress our media's reputation down to the level it deserves.  Tip to Instapundit.

China is not interested in playing by the Western-designed rules-based trade order longer than it must. The West must adjust to that fact.

I'm sure it is just a culturally unique way of expressing thanks. This is a problem when we just scooped up people within reach during the evacuation to pad the numbers and hide that we didn't get our people or friends out of Afghanistan: "The Biden administration hid the failure of the Afghanistan skedaddle debacle behind the facade of the technically proficient military evacuation operation. Sadly, the operation scooped up nearby people to pad the numbers rather than evacuate locals who helped us." Worse, we may have imported terrorists. Tip to Instapundit." Send the ungrateful vandals back to Afghanistan. Hey, you're welcome.

I'm many helmets and uniform designs behind current issues. Which makes me feel old. And now I get farther behind on weapons: "The Army plans to field in 2023 a rifle and light machine combination that will replace the standard issue M4 carbine and the M249 Squad Automatic Weapon for its close combat force." They will use 6.8mm rounds.

More on the GLSDB.

Everything is fine: "The leader of the pro-Russian Wagner Group private army endorsed a stinging criticism of Russia's official military, the Daily Beast reported, escalating the in-fighting around the war in Ukraine." Russia is on a dangerous path.

I'm so old I remember when picking on Chinese and denying them entry to America was xenophobic: "Starting Jan. 5, the U.S. will require a pre-departure negative Covid test for anyone flying in from China, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced Wednesday."

In World War II, American soldiers used to fixing their trucks and cars provided a big edge in keeping a motorized American Army moving. If we get robotic soldiers and vehicles remotely controlled, will America's numerous first-person shooter players provide a similar edge?

Putin critics who died. And now for something completely different:

This is crazy talk: "Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is warning the U.S. against carrying out a 'decapitation blow' targeting President Vladimir Putin, calling it a 'threat to physically eliminate the head of the Russian state.'" Why would America target the man doing so much to destroy Russia all on his own?

Russia launched another wave of missile and suicide drone attacks on Ukraine's cities.

A Chinese fighter aircraft approached one of our RC-135s flying over international waters in the South China Sea and behaved like--excuse my use of a technical term--dangerously aggressive assholes. China is currently 0-1 in aircraft survival during dangerous intercepts of our recon aircraft over the South China Sea.

Trust the ... "science"?

Panic is no foundation for solid policy. 

The permanent bureaucracy's willing accomplices.

Embracing allies: "South Korea’s first comprehensive strategy for the Indo-Pacific region embraces the country’s ties to the United States and Japan against its neighbor North Korea’s 'serious threat to peace and stability.'" I think North Korea is the entry threat before working on the biggest threat.

Of course Biden was sleepless and frustrated when Afghanistan's military collapsed when we skedaddled. Biden had been assured he'd have a "decent interval" between skedaddle and collapse to avoid blame, which administration absurd spinning could not hide. Biden gets no sympathy from me.

The U.S. will sell to Taiwan the Volcano rapid minelaying system. Containing Chinese advances will make it easier to drive the invaders into the sea.

If we've gotten to the body count stage of the war on terror, we may have lost it. Killing terrorists is a necessary means to defeat Islamists. It should not be a metric of success. Yet this data is secret?

Will America send surplus Bradley Fighting Vehicles to Ukraine? Who knows if that will happen, how long it will take to send them if we do, and how long it will take Ukraine to integrate them. 

Japan's first aircraft carrier since 1945 takes shape. The ship is being adapted to operate F-35Bs.

Oh joy: "General Dynamics Land Systems began assembling the Army’s Mobile Protected Firepower system in November, after being selected in June to build the light tank." Too little firepower or protection in case enemies aren't gallant enough to refrain from sending tanks against them. And flaming hulks aren't very mobile, either. Burn, baby burn.

Will General Winter and Czar Putin destroy Russia's army?

Elon Musk gets his own Space Force. He'll have the first space navy, won't he?

The myth of American income inequality. We've really conquered abject poverty here. I've long been aware of the problem that government statistics refuse to count social programs when looking at income. What I didn't know is that the statistics also don't subtract the taxes you pay on your income. Huh. Which is odd considering the whole point of the social programs is to alleviate income inequality. Or perhaps it isn't odd and vast bureaucracies have an interest in showing zero progress in the war on poverty for the last 60 years. Tip to Instapundit. 

Putin expects more military cooperation from China after Xi Jinping's planned spring visit to Russia. Maybe. But what price will China demand?

Say, let's enforce existing gun laws before clamoring for new ones, okay? Is government incompetent or does it want to let the system fail in order to clamor for new gun laws?

The Munk Debate: Don't trust the mainstream media.

Putin: "Russian President Vladimir Putin oversaw the commissioning of new warships and vowed Thursday to further strengthen his country’s navy." Yes! And you know you want a super carrier--or more--too!

I don't celebrate when Putin fires a general. Because eventually he might find a good one.

Retired U.S. Army LTG Hodges said that a Russian failure before the city of Bakhmut, which has grown in symbolic if not battlefield importance, would damage the prestige of the Wagner Group and Russia in general. I did suggest Ukraine rename the city Zelenskygrad.

I'm honestly shocked--that the AP needed to be paid money to print the propaganda.

Arming Ukraine. 

Pope Emeritus Benedict XVI, 95, passed away.

Is Russia just bringing a bitter resistance home and making its members angry at Putin? "The Russian government has not prepared itself for the consequences of its soldiers returning to Russian society."

One thing I didn't fully appreciate about Ukraine was the effects of Russia's 2014 invasion and subsequent "frozen conflict" in the Donbas on solidifying Ukrainian opinion against Russia. While some of Russia's advances in the south out of Crimea were apparently paved by Ukrainians loyal to, bribed by, or blackmailed by Russia, Russia had too few fans on the ground willing to turn Ukraine over to Russia when Russia's parades crossed the border in 2022.

Oh? "President Vladimir Putin used his New Year’s address to the nation to accuse Western countries of aggression and trying to use the conflict in Ukraine to undermine Moscow." Once again, Putin is undermining Moscow just fine without Western help.

Turkey continues to be a problematic NATO ally: "Turkey’s president directly threatened his country’s western neighbor: Unless the Greeks 'stay calm,' he said, Turkey’s new ballistic missiles would hit their capital city."

Never say Russia and China don't have friends! "When Myanmar carried out the death penalty for the first time in three decades by executing four activists in July, China and Russia stayed silent while the US and its allies condemned the junta. Now the regime is on the verge of doing it again."

Somebody got their entry into the 2022 competition for most self-centered hysterical moron just under the wire. Best of luck! Tip to Instapundit. 

The Powerline week in pictures.

The Michigan-TCU game sucked. Basically spotted TCU two touchdowns with pick sixes. Fumbled on the TCU 1-foot line (calling the catch short of TD should have been irrelevant). And I still don't get the first drive 4th down play that erased the advantage of knowing if you fail to get the TD you pin the other team on their own 1-yard line (but I'm full aware that if it worked we'd say it was genius). All of which I think made us take risks on defense to get the ball back quickly to have time to come back. Which I thought we'd do despite first half. The team did not give up and did come back--but fell short. TCU made fewer mistakes, took advantage of our mistakes, and played well. So congratulations. Still, when I think of the horror of the 2020 season, our football program has made great strides. So Go Blue. We'll start over in 2023.

Releasing Trump's taxes embarrassed him but there are no crimes evident.If there wer, the IRS would have already filed charges. Releasing them was an abuse of power. And I just assume that conventional politicians know how to hide their activities so they can release their "clean" taxes. The "big guys" get their money in more clever and hidden ways. Tip to Instapundit.

Russia is squandering resources fighting in Ukraine. And scroll down for more on Belarus, which is experiencing internal reactions to Russia's push to absorb the former Soviet republic.

I did not know that Obama refused options to destroy an advanced American drone that crashed in Iran and was used to develop the Iranian drones Russia is using against Ukraine. Wonderful. And I never did understand why Clinton didn't bomb to shreds the F-117 stealth bomber that crashed in Serbia in the 1999 war.

Iranian leadership seems to be divided in how to respond to the protests that drag on. But until some of the leadership sides with the protesters, I don't know how significant this is.

And as we review our past year of trials, let's all be grateful the Biden administration's best and brightest minds will be on the job in 2023 (this is a rerun):

Well, I set a yearly page views record this year on my new statistics package I started using late in 2016. I probably have older statistics on printouts somewhere. I'm not nearly at peak pre-social media days. But I don't know how long that level lasted. Certainly, traffic is up significantly the last two years. So thanks for reading. I wonder if blogs in general are seeing a revival in reaction to social media fatigue/disgust.