Fighting the Taliban Was Too Expensive? How About the Cost of Losing?

Many Americans were tired of the long war in Afghanistan that had prevented the place from regenerating the ability to attack us as home as al Qaeda did from there on September 11, 2001. The cost of appeasing the Taliban victors has been high since we retreated in 2021.

The war in Afghanistan had been largely won with Afghani security forces fighting and dying in large numbers to defeat the Taliban and related jihadis. By the time we skedaddled, I think no American had died in combat for 18 months. But we left. And American troops died holding the perimeter while we shoveled random--and unscreened--Afghanis into our planes to pretend we had achieved a victory of some sort.

We abandoned a lot of weapons, ammunition, and equipment to the Taliban. But if you think at least America stopped spending money on Afghanistan after refusing to hold our tenuous but real gain there, guess again:

Since withdrawing, the United States has pumped in more than $20 billion in aid. Separately, tens of millions of dollars are delivered monthly in cash, ostensibly for humanitarian organizations, though much is pilfered by the Taliban. 

The vacuum left by the United States and Nato has been filled by China, Iran and Russia.

Ah, enemies rush in but we still subsidize the Taliban government rather than at least force China, Iran, and Russia to bear the financial cost of exploiting our defeat. Also:

Long-term Taliban collaborators Al Qaeda are back in the business of running militant training camps that despatch gunmen across the world’s terrorist hotspots, from Syria to Somalia.

No! Way! We were told Taliban 2.0 was reformed! And nuanced! 

It sure looks like America is paying either reparations to the Taliban or that America is paying the Taliban not to support terrorism against us. For a a while, anyway. 

No doubt the Taliban portray our aid as tribute paid to the conquerors. And they're right. I don't expect the Taliban or their allies will be content with conquering Afghanistan for long.

Have a super sparkly new year. 

UPDATE: Why Western feminists aren't the most hardcore anti-jihadis is beyond me:

The Taliban say they will close all national and foreign nongovernmental groups in Afghanistan employing women, the latest crackdown on women’s rights since they took power in August 2021.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War, including the revived Syria multi-war, in this post.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it.

The Winter War of 2022 Seeks to Define Victory

What is victory in the Winter War of 2022? A number of countries have a stake in calculating what it means.

When Russia invaded its victory conditions seemed simple--conquer Ukraine in a short and glorious parade through Ukraine.

Ukraine, once it survived the initial blow, victory was ejecting the invaders and the summer 2023 counteroffensive seemed to be the salvation that would provide that victory.

China trusted Russia would get a quick victory. This would let their vassal tie up more Western attention in Europe without exposing China's economy to blowback for having an aggressive Russia as its so-called partner.

And the West? I remain convinced that America assumed Ukraine would fall fast and simply wanted to shove in enough arms to sustain a post-conquest Ukrainian insurgency. And--more importantly--avoid looking like it did nothing to stop yet another enemy victory so soon after losing the Afghanistan war in a humiliating fashion. Europeans initially seemed more eager to stop Russia, especially those closest to Russia. But I don't know that most expected to have to spend on defense at the expense of social programs for very long.

The war goes on. Russia continues to expend lives at an accelerated rate--now including North Korean cannon fodders--to push deeper into Ukraine and reclaim Russian territory lost to Ukraine's Kursk incursion. Ukraine's manpower shortage makes the moving stalemate seemingly fragile. But sufficient Ukrainian ammunition (for now?) creates a less visible fragility on the Russian side of the equation. And Russia threw in a wild card by shooting down an Azerbaijan civilian airliners inside Russian territory.

The war is nearly three years old and that milestone is often the point when a country's people begin to lose their enthusiasm for fighting on to battlefield victory if another path is possible without clear defeat.

Russia--while still seemingly dismissive of its own casualties--seems to want acreage rather than trophy urban areas to define battlefield success:

It remains unclear which effort the Russian military command will prioritize, as Russian President Vladimir Putin may have tasked the Russian military with securing territorial gains rather than seizing significant settlements.

But Russia is sustaining heavy casualties, destroying their war-making materiel, and suffering growing economic hardships. Russia must figure out what can be sold as victory to justify its heavy losses. And must figure out how long Russians can endure the heavy losses in lives and living standards.

Yet Russia hasn't changed its definition of its war objective:

Russian President Vladimir Putin enshrined his alleged policy of Ukrainian "denazification" in a new state strategy document about countering extremism, demonstrating how Putin continues to make the same demands for the removal of the Ukrainian government that he made in 2022 when launching the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The bravado of demanding the same victory now as when Russia entered Ukraine in February 2022 expecting a parade makes me think Russia's demand is hollow--even as an opening bid for future negotiations. It may be a means to conceal weakness. Yet the mere fact of Russia's massive casualties makes getting anything less than total victory a potential domestic problem. How Putin can define Russian victory that also includes him winning--or surviving--seems difficult. Perhaps too difficult.

Ukraine has to decide whether just stopping--a cynic will say "pausing"--Russia's invasion can be defined as a victory after three years of fighting and dying to hold off and expel the brutal invadeers. Ukraine is exhausted and increasingly knows that short of a Russian military collapse that it cannot expel Russia from occupied Ukrainian territory. And believes Russia will renew the war just as soon as it can. And no doubt wonders how long the West will sustain its war effort if it declines a ceasefire, no matter how bad that deal is.

But one problem with ratifying the view that the "end" of suffering with a ceasefire rather than ejecting the Russians is victory for Ukraine is apparent when you describe the next step in practical terms:

[The West should] enable Ukraine to adopt a “porcupine model” of defense through their security cooperation. This would entail helping Ukraine develop a force that is optimized for defending the territory that Kyiv controls when the fighting ends, instead of providing training aimed at improving the ability to retake Russian-held territory.

A West unwilling to arm Ukraine now to liberate its territory won't suddenly be willing to do that after a ceasefire. Especially if Western troops man a border tripwire. Those troops will restrain Ukraine more than Russia. Because Russia knows Ukraine won't be able to launch an effective counteroffensive, Russia will be free to renew the conflict periodically to gain more ground and then declare peace when the figurative quills hurt too much. And if Russia warns Western tripwire forces to get out of the way or else, which Western leader will order their troops to remain and die when no Article V rescue is possible because Ukraine isn't a member of NATO and nuclear-armed Russia wouldn't be attacking NATO territory?

And this has nothing to do with my skepticism of so-called "porcupine" strategies in general--and specifically for Ukraine even before Russia invaded in 2022.

The West, which is not as solidly behind Ukraine as it once was, must decide whether it can sell an end to the war as close enough to the definition of victory to avoid a backlash. Note that in America people recoiled in horror at the defeat in Afghanistan notwithstanding a prior desire to get out of that war. And will Ukrainians be relieved if they see the West pushing to a ceasefire? Or will Ukrainians feel betrayed? And if they feel betrayed, will they resist in the next war with the vigor that they have displayed in this war? How does the West navigate this political minefield?

China has to decide what victory is, too. Is distracting America from Asia and the Pacific a victory? Is supporting Russia just enough to keep the war going in order to weaken Russia and pave the way to end a major part of China's "century of humiliation" a victory? But how does awakening Western (broadly including Japan and, South Korea, as I do) awareness of the need to rebuild a threadbare defense-industrial base to sustain a great power conventional war factor into Chinese calculations? Does China want to encourage Western rearmament by keeping the war going? Or would it be better to let Russia lose and hope to soothe the West into ending this spasm of defense realism?

I don't think there is a substitute for battlefield victory over Russia. But I don't get to write the Definitions Section. I wonder who will?

UPDATE (Tuesday): I've noted my long advice that Ukraine should trade space for time. This allows Ukraine to have a better kill ratio to tire the Russians. Yet as Ukraine loses ground this year I worry that this signifies a problem with Ukrainian morale rather than being my advice in action.

Strategypage cites German practice on the strategic defense on the World War II eastern front against Russian offensives to note Ukraine's strategy that provides "when Russian troops attack, they suffer substantial casualties as the Ukrainians continually retreat before the Russians can reach them." 

I noted this World War II practice back in late 2023 as an example for Ukraine. But the small size of Russia's attacks now compared to World War II mean that Ukraine's step-back approach is on a lower scale. I do hope what I am seeing is a deliberate Ukrainian strategy rather than a sign of weakness. Indeed, if Russia sees the strategy as weakness it will encourage the Russians to keep attacking and losing men in a perhaps mistaken belief that Ukrainians rather than Russians are close to the breaking point.

But I can't know. All I know is that I can see the retreat on maps and I can't see the state of Russian and Ukrainian troops. Is this the tip of the iceberg or an isolated situation?

Russian field commanders are reportedly continuing to brutally punish Russians who refuse to fight in Ukraine. Russian opposition outlet Astra reported that a Russian assault detachment commander deliberately mined fields near Stelmakhivka (southeast of Kupyansk) to prevent elements of the Russian 423rd Motorized Rifle Regiment (4th Guards Tank Division, 1st Guards Tank Army [GTA]) from withdrawing from forward positions in September 2024. Astra reported that the commander ordered a Russian serviceman to shoot Russian personnel who that withdrew from their positions.

Hell if I know. But I do know I also struggle with not making my hopes a valid piece of evidence.

UPDATE (Wednesday): ISW reports that Russia's pace of advance has noticeably declined in December without a decline in casualty rates.

UPDATE (Wednesday): Russia isn't acting like it is willing to negotiate an end to its invasion that doesn't provide Russia with a victory through diplomacy that force of arms hasn't achieved:

The year is ending with a pair of sharp messages between top advisers to Russian leader Vladimir Putin and President-elect Trump.

We'll see.

UPDATE (Sunday): The scale, objective, and intended duration are unclear:

Ukraine has launched a fresh offensive in Russia's Kursk region, the Russian defence ministry says.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War and the related Syria events in this post.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

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Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I continue posting here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section. 

But Russia would totally honor a new ceasefire: "Russian President Vladimir Putin repeated his latest assertion that he should have violated the ceasefire he had imposed on Ukraine in 2014 and 2015 by launching a full-scale invasion even earlier than February 2022."

This will be difficult to navigate: "Turkey and HTS are continuing to coordinate their efforts to coerce the SDF into disarming and integrating into the HTS-led defense apparatus."

Unless this cuts off Russian financial resources from Africa, wouldn't it be better for Ukraine if Russia was stuck in Syria? "Turkey and Ukraine cooperated with each other as well as HTS in overthrowing the Assad regime." Not saying Ukraine's role was decisive, of course. But did it achieve more than intended?

Ukrainians love the Abrams tank--especially its crew protection features--but warn in needs protection against drones that can strike less-protected areas. 

Hmmm: "The Royal Netherlands Army plans to equip its soldiers with personal drone-protection gear, including targeting lasers and portable sensors[.]" Personal as in each soldier? At what point does lugging around personal protection hamper primary missions? I concede dead soldiers can't achieve any mission.

A victory of hope over experience: "The Biden administration said Friday it has decided not to pursue a $10 million reward it had offered for the capture of a Syrian rebel leader whose forces led the ouster of President Bashar Assad earlier this month."

Nearly three years into the war: "Recent satellite imagery of Belbek Air Base, near Sevastopol in Russian-occupied Crimea, shows new hardened aircraft shelters and additional construction to help shield aircraft from drone attacks and other indirect fire." America won't have the luxury of time if China hits air bases.

A call to remove our troops from Syria and Iraq because they are "a potentially significant strategic vulnerability to our country." Saying our well-armed, -trained, and -supported American troops are sitting ducks rather than threats to our enemies astounds me. General Grant would disapprove.

Source - Stars and Stri

Indeed: "A stronger maritime industrial base capable of fixing ships and getting them back into combat zones could be an important part of deterrence."

We're not going to take Greenland, the Panama Canal, or Canada (and FFS, the last was a mean tweet aimed at Trudeau) and I don't know how we could afford to buy them. 

The Baltic Defense Line to slow down a Russian invasion must not neglect building a will to resist a Russian invasion by Baltic State citizens. Yes, this is a larger scale reflection of the fact that physical barriers must be stoutly defended to be of value.

Providing Taiwan with arms clearly isn't part of China's declared "red line" since America has done it for a long time. China's definition of what we promised has changed--not American actions.

The Syria "transitional" government will be led by a pragmatic Islamist engineer. Building a working bridge to the 21st century caliphate, no doubt.

What is Qatar doing in the eastern Mediterranean Sea? Perhaps Qatar is working with Turkey to extend Turkey's imperial reach to Qatar to protect it from Iran and Saudi Arabia. And probably support China's trade routes.

Is the Obama Doctrine that elevated mullah-run Iran to "friend we haven't tried hard enough to make" status" dead? Thank you, Israel. That policy-level elevation of hope over experience was always--and forgive the technical term--"stupid."

Russia threw Romania into government chaos. But Russia didn't do that with devious misinformation or disinformation out of nowhere. Russia exploited poor governance and grievances ignored. Russia isn't the reason a pro-Putin candidate got the most--but still relatively few--votes in a crowded first-round field.

Russia's effort to block the Internet from the outside world failed.

Not once more into the breach: "The recent rapid collapse of the Assad government in Syria was made possible by the Alawite ethnic group deserting their Alawite patron President Bashar Assad. For decades the Alawites had prospered by supporting the Assad family, but [many Alawites died defending Assad]."

Whack-in-a-box: "The Philippine military said Monday it plans to acquire the US Typhon missile system to protect its maritime interests, some of which overlap with regional power China." I highlighted this system on Substack.

The war on terror is not over: "The U.S. military conducted an airstrike on Monday in Syria, where they killed a pair of ISIS operatives and destroyed a truckload of weapons, according to U.S. Central Command."

I've had jobs that absolutely proved "negative time" is real in the hour before quitting time. 

The F-35 really does represent a new capability that exploits stealth--as long as the military network holds together, of course.

The Army's "transforming in contact" experiments with new technology focused on non-armored brigades so far. Why no heavy forces?

A Russian cargo ship possibly intended to evacuate Russian troops and equipment from Syria sank in the Mediterranean Sea after an explosion in its engine room. Spain conducted a rescue but two crew are missing.

North Korea doesn't care if they survive: "North Korea is reportedly planning to deploy more troops and weapons to Russia amid reports that over 3,000 North Korean troops have been killed and wounded in Kursk Oblast." Indeed, Kim Jong-Un doesn't want any of those "contaminated" troops to survive.

How can European states revive their defense-industrial base when its green energy policies have crippled all industries?

Just saying that with China running a chunk of the Panama Canal, Panama unable to pay to sustain water needs for the canal, and possible alternate shipping routes across Central America, America has reason to jump back in and Panama has reason to invite America back in, short of past full Canal Zone ownership.

China's projected population is crashing. I don't know if this makes China more aggressive--I doubt that's the decisive factor when China's regional targets face similar problems. And China's harsher rhetoric may be bluff to compensate. But I have looked at China's relative decline compared to America for some time.

Ball bearings: "Russia’s ability to continue the Ukraine war is being compromised due to catastrophic mismanagement of its railway system. This emerging situation is so dire that cutoffs of service to vast areas, starting with Siberia east of Irkutsk to the Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk, [may occur in 2025]."

The EU is no friend: "the primary threat to its technological edge comes from the United States, not China. EU studies reveal that Europe is trailing in nearly all advanced technologies—and it’s American, not Chinese, firms leading the acquisition of promising European startups." Bolster NATO. Stop the EU. 

Courage in defense of our nation should be recognized: "Leader is one of a group of Indigenous veterans who are currently being reviewed as potential recipients of the Medal of Honor — more than a century after they served."

While I think the missions are worthwhile--and add in screening Iraq to prevent a 2014 repeat--the fall of Assad changes the situation and requires a review of what is worth dying to achieve there. Which is what I called for in Trump's first term. And note that Israel achieved what I thought our ultimate goals should be.

This is sad. But Hamas could solve this if it surrenders and stops using Gaza as a human shield: "Winter is hitting the Gaza Strip and many of the nearly 2 million Palestinians displaced by the devastating 14-month war with Israel are struggling to protect themselves from the wind, cold and rain." 

France's military retreat from quasi-empire in Africa (for now).

The rise of counter-measures: "The British military recently conducted its first-ever successful, live-fire test of a new weapon designed to cost-effectively defeat swarms of drones, according to the U.K. Ministry of Defence." All is proceeding as expected.

A mother-friggin' rail gun: "The U.S. Army says it is planning to award a sole-source contract to BAE Systems to produce a prototype self-propelled 155mm howitzer for use as a novel air and missile defense system.

Significant shrinkage: "Migration, combat deaths and low reproduction rates are rapidly reducing the Russian population, which is currently about 145 million. It is expected to fall as low as 133 million by 2050."

Weapon accuracy and troop dispersal over time. 

UNIFIL is correct: "The United Nations observer mission in Lebanon urged both Israel and Hezbollah to comply with the ceasefire agreement, warning on its Telegram channel on Thursday against actions that could jeopardize the fragile cessation of hostilities." But UNIFIL is not the one to lecture.

Hmmm: "A Chinese drone manufacturer has disclosed a massive government order for almost a million lightweight kamikaze drones, to be delivered by 2026." Suicide drones have a short shelf life. Does China plan to invade Taiwan? Sell them to Russia? Or is this a top-down order that only looks good on paper?

Government chaos unsettles defense: "Following the 2022 invasion, the German government announced a Zeitenwende, or turning point, in military policy. ... But despite these lofty aspirations, the German government’s turning point has largely consisted of spinning its wheels." Answer the German Question!

How the Marine Corps can maintain its momentum? But if the Marines need to stop digging to get out of the hole they dug for themselves, digging faster is bad.

Is this a ship training problem? "An F/A-18 Super Hornet was forced to take 'evasive maneuvers' after an SM-2 missile fired from the guided missile cruiser USS Gettysburg passed within 100 feet (30 meters) of the aircraft." We may over-compensate to avoid friendly fire, allowing the Houthi to hit Gettysburg.

Is Ethiopia's crisis an opportunity for new American diplomacy? So far, Turkey filled the power vacuum in the Horn of Africa.

Leaving the fate of Syria to Syrians is fine in theory. But Turkey, Israel, Iran, Sunni jihadis, and Russia are not going to follow that advice.

Narva: "This snow-covered border bridge between two medieval fortresses in a Russian-speaking corner of Estonia might be where World War III starts." I have thoughts in Army magazine on how to contain that threat, reinforce Article V,  and defeat one form of armed aggression. I bolster my case in this post.

You can call it "hybrid war" but it is still Russia waging war: "Finnish authorities seized an oil tanker as part of an investigation into the cutting of an undersea [electric] cable connecting Finland and Estonia, they announced Thursday."

Collateral damage: "Azerbaijan Airlines Flight JS-8432 crashed in Kazakhstan Wednesday after being fired upon by a Russian Pantsir S1 short-range air defense system, the head of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Directorate (GUR) told The War Zone[.]" The U.S. thinks that may have happened. 

That's bad: "At least 6,000 inmates escaped from a high-security prison in Mozambique’s capital on Christmas Day after a rebellion, the country’s police chief said, as widespread post-election riots and violence are roiling the country."

Reaction: "NATO will bolster its military presence in the Baltic Sea after the suspected sabotage of an undersea power cable linking Finland and Estonia this week, the Western military alliance's chief Mark Rutte said on Friday." As some in the West tires of supporting Ukraine, Russia reminds us why we do.

If the issue is the direct cost to America, this could be a growing means for Ukraine to purchase arms from America: "Japan will provide Ukraine with $3 billion in non-lethal assistance generated solely from the proceeds of frozen Russian assets." And we can't address wartime production shortfalls without sales now.

Syria from the dawn of civilization to the fall of Assad. Will the Druze request annexation by Israel?

A positive assessment of Marine Force Design changes. This puts what seems like insufficiently capable anti-ship missions as just one of many things a lighter force will do. I'm skeptical. And even if  this change is needed to deal with China, why change non-Pacific Marines, too?

Russian counter-drone weapon: "Russian forces have begun using improvised counter-drone buggies armed with a weapon made up of 24 barrels that fire shotgun-like ammunition, as well as six AK-series infantry rifles on a single mount."

Are they obsolete now despite being new? "Soldiers with the 10th Mountain Division, which is currently deployed in Romania, recently became the first Army unit to field the service’s newest reconnaissance drones." Small drones are not mature, so updates from combat experience come quickly. 

Well: "South Korea's National Assembly impeached the country's acting president Han Duck-soo on Friday, marking the second time in December that it has chosen to remove the country's leader in a tumultuous political climate." The "events" continue.

CRS report to Congress on the Barge With Pretensions (a.k.a. Medium Landing Ship; a.k.a. Light Amphibious Warship).

A look at China's newest design of a 6th generation combat aircraft.

Will this dig out corruption or just temporarily dormant? "China abruptly ousted two military lawmakers from its national parliament without explanation, as a purge of key personnel in the upper echelons of the nation’s defense establishment shows no sign of easing." And does corruption choose the purge targets?

If you wonder why I think over the next four years many Democrats will stop supporting Ukraine against Russian aggression (going back to their late Cold War position) while Republicans will start supporting Ukraine (ditto), wonder no more. 

Even if the HTS leader doesn't want this, there are always those more Islamist than thou: "Several trends have placed Syria on a trajectory that is increasingly likely to lead to ethno-sectarian conflict." HTS fighters have "killed and kidnapped Alawites and other Syrians accused of being Assad regime officials."

The foundation of our national power is our economic strength. So you can understand why my pucker factor is redlining. Tip to Instapundit.

For now, Putin has the money and security apparatus to keep economic discontent from sparking something bad for him.

Dave Barry's always amusing year in review: "Abroad, fighting continues to rage in both Ukraine and Gaza, although these conflicts are no longer getting a ton of attention in the U.S. media because of all the news being generated by Taylor Swift." Glad I don't have stock in one particular company ...

I keep hearing stories wondering whether North Korea will be upset with Russia for getting so many North Korean troops killed and wounded fighting Ukraine already. I'm pretty confident Kim wants all of them to die there.

The imperial borderland: "While many Belarussians dislike and distrust Russia, Belarussian leaders have been bribed or coerced by Russia to be pro-Russian. That means Russian special operations and espionage personnel can operate out of Belarus against neighboring countries." Russian nukes are there, too. 

Our first suicide drone, the Tomahawk, lives on. 

No! Way! "RUSSIA-LINKED dark fleet* tanker Eagle S (IMO: 9329760), seized by Finland on December 25 for damaging an undersea cable, had transmitting and receiving devices installed that effectively allowed it to become a 'spy ship' for Russia, Lloyd’s List has learnt."

Mexico's new president seems to be changing course to fight with criminal cartels rather than live with them. Decades ago, Mexico looked the other way, claiming the problem was an American demand problem. And Mexico enjoyed the money flowing in to Mexico. That attitude has bitten Mexico in the ass. 

Here we go: "Ukrainian forces have successfully outfitted FPV (first-person view) drones with miniature cannons, enabling them to intercept and destroy Russian unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in mid-flight." Fighter drones!

Wargaming argues for Marine Littoral Regiments being a failure for defending Taiwan. I added that to my recent post on exactly that. To be fair, my issue with the CSIS wargame in question is broader.

The Army is buying more Cold Weather All-Terrain Vehicles (CATVs). Conventional vehicles don't work that well in the Arctic environment.

More on Navy "friendly fire" problems in air defense here and here. To be fair to the Navy, a mistake in the opposite direction means the loss of a very expensive warship and its crew. When surface ships are so vulnerable, risking the loss of a single American plane and its crew is a tragic bargain by comparison.

The AMX-10 is a heavy armored car and not a "tank" despite its turret with a 105mm gun. Ukraine isn't trying to use it as a tank and are instead using it as self-propelled artillery to keep it out of direct-fire combat.

Are North Korean troops fighting Ukraine committing suicide rather than surrendering because they fear reprisals by their own government against their families back in North Korea?

I heard Russia's military has 1.5 million men. Up from their pre-war paper strength of a million. But Russia never reached a million. So I don't believe Russia has anywhere near what they claim. Unless Russia isn't releasing conscripts after their term, no way does Russia have 1.5 million troops.

Marine Corps Compass Points has a nice review of the Landing Ship Medium intended to move Marines around the western Pacific to sink Chinese warships. The operating concept and ship concept are flawed. I have some thoughts on coping with this flawed use of Marines coming up on Substack before 2025.

Army won its bowl game. Quite the season excepting one particular game ... . And a depleted 7-5 (but beating our rivals) Michigan will play ranked and staffed Alabama almost a year after it lost to Michigan, which ultimately won a championship. To say my pucker factor is redlined would not be an exaggeration.

Israel shattered Hezbollah this year. But it didn't touch its illegal drug money-making operations in eastern Lebanon. And Hezbollah has a global criminal reach to fund some rebuilding. You may remember that as a favor to Iran, Obama prevented American law enforcement from attacking that global network.

Ah, f**k. From a bird strike: "Two people survived and 179 were confirmed to have been killed in a plane crash at a South Korean airport Sunday. There were 181 passengers and crew on board." Imagine what terrorists with suicide drones could do.

Iraq suffered greatly from Iran-supported jihadi "ratlines" through Syria during the Iraq War and later ISIL erupting from Syria. So this is prudent: "Iraqi Defense Minister Thabet al Abasi inspected Iraqi army units and border police at Rabia border crossing, along the Syria-Iraq border, on December 28."

The Littoral Combat Ship Gets a Reason to Exist

The Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) has a long history of existence. The Navy is desperate not to waste any potential swinging hull in an era when every ship matters for a sea control fight.

I initially had hopes for the modular LCS. Alas, the expensive mediocrities that slid into the water disappointed all who had similar hope.

Can the Navy make the LCS a Less Crappy Ship? 

Today, the Littoral Combat Ship is equipped with the Naval Strike Missile, a long-range precision strike weapon. Eventually, many will receive the Mk 70 Payload Delivery System with vertical launch system technology[.]

Last year I noted the Mk 70 (quoting a Naval News article):

Although the system has been primarily tested with the SM-6s, it is compatible with every missile currently integrated into the MK.41 VLS, including the 1,200-mile (1,600 km) range Tomahawk Land Attack Missile and its variants.

Here's hoping the LCS is good enough for sea control work. And don't forget other uses for the Mk 70 PDS.

UPDATE: Is there a use for the already retired LCS? 

UPDATE: Finally: 

The Independence-class LCS USS Santa Barbara (LCS 32) achieved a first last month, becoming the first ship to complete mine warfare training milestones with unmanned surface vessels, an important step forward in the Mine Countermeasures (MCM) mission module, on schedule for its maiden deployment in 2025.

Sadly, there's so much gear in this "module" that the LCS is no longer modular, capable of swapping out the MCM for anything else:

The components of the LCS MCM mission module were not originally designed to be loaded into the 30,000 square feet of mission bay space and shortcomings have been encountered in balancing the space between 11 meter CUSVs, four or five 12-foot CONEX boxes, a lift system for the CUSVs, and an independent berthing box for the operators of the MCM suite.

Due to these space constraints, modularity of this platform is no longer offered or being pursued by the U.S. Navy to switch between mission modules, a sharp turn from the original planning of the LCS.

Hey, I'm just happy there's any use at all for the ship class.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War, including the revived Syria multi-war, in this post.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it.

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Iran's Subliminal March to Nukes

Iran has been given the benefit of the doubt over its nuclear weapons ambitions. Iran has not been quick to exploit that, but march toward that goal it has.

President Obama's outreach to normalize mullah-run Iran and decouple from Israel--something that has spread throughout the Democratic Party since then--was built on events in the Bush 43 administration:

The embarrassment of exposure [of two secret Iranian nuclear facilities in 2002], and the intimidating implications of the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003, prompted Iran to suspend much of its nuclear program; subsequently, a leaked U.S. intelligence report implied that Iran had abandoned it entirely. This was false, but it made President Bush feel he could not resort to military action, which may have been the ulterior motive of those who wrote it and leaked it.

Ah yes, I remember well the odd American media pivot to dismissing the nuclear threat when a CIA National Intelligence Estimate on Iran's nuclear program was released. I read the NIE and complimented one reporter who filed before the memo went out to reporters to spin the NIE as saying Iran wasn't a nuclear threat. 

And don't forget the Iran nuclear deal spin machine that helped Obama get the awful Iran nuclear deal through Congress.

And here we are, with only a revolution in Iran seemingly able to save us from religious nuts with nukes.

Have a super sparkly day.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War, including the revived Syria multi-war, in this post.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it.

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

The Arab "Street" Checks Out

Saudi Arabia's Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) recently complained about Israel's war on Hamas. That obscures the larger trend. The so-called "Arab street" has largely ceased to be a factor in Arab ruler calculations for survival.

This is certainly unfortunate:

Over the past few weeks, Mohammed bin Salman’s sharp criticism of Israel and overtures toward Iran have raised eyebrows across Washington and beyond. At a November 11 summit of Islamic nations in Riyadh, the Saudi crown prince accused Israel of committing “collective genocide” in Gaza and urged the international community — implicitly the United States — to compel Israel to respect Iran’s sovereignty. These statements mark a stark departure from the crown prince’s previously hostile rhetoric toward Iran and his often pragmatic stance on normalization with Israel. 

While it is possible that this is tactical maneuvering to negotiate with Trump, this seems more relevant:

In recent weeks, Saudi citizens and officials have expressed intense anger over the devastation in Gaza, with the Biden administration facing harsh criticism for its perceived complicity. While Mohammed bin Salman wields near-absolute power, he is not immune to public sentiment.  

Israel's war on Hamas began shortly after the Hamas October 7, 2023 rape and murder invasion of Israel. Yet only in recent weeks has the Saudi government seen "intense anger" over the war? Where are the massive street protests that once defined the Arab street? The demonstrations that scared Arab autocrats? Autocrats who once were loudly anti-Israel to prevent such demonstrations from occurring?

Have I missed the news of such protests anywhere in the Arab world? Or has there been a rise in mean tweets? Mind you, some sharp criticism no doubt helps calm potential assassins or coup urges. We shall see what happens when the highly visible kinetics gives way to intelligence-based police-type operations or covert operations against surviving Hamas assets.

And we'll see how the rapid fall of Assad to jihadis affects MBS's actions and rhetoric.

The Arab street is the dog that did not bark in the night. Oh sure, pro-Hamas Moslems and their Leftist allies in the prosperous West are still prone to protests and violence, But itt seems like Middle East Arabs are tired of treating Palestinians as Queen of the Victim Prom whose demands can't be ignored.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War, including the revived Syria multi-war, in this post.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it.

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Merry Christmas. And Enemies Beware

 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War, including the revived Syria multi-war, in this post.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it.

Taiwan's Tanks Will Be Vital to Drive the PLA into the Sea

Increasing the cost of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is not the way to defeat or deter China. Being able to drive the PLA invaders into the surf will provide a capability to defeat and deter China.

Taiwan received its first 38 of 108 Abrams tanks ordered, allowing them to replace ancient tanks: 

Taiwan has received its first batch of M1A2T Abrams main battle tanks as it continues its drive to modernize its armed forces, which face an expanding military threat from Beijing. While the upgrade for the Republic of China Army (ROCA) — which was still operating 1950s-era M41A3 Walker Bulldog light tanks up until recently — is obvious, there are still questions about how suitable the big and heavy Abrams is for the island’s very particular defensive requirements.

I know that asymmetric "porcupine" weapons are the Belle of the Ball these days. Whatever the marketing term of the moment is. And while necessary, such weapons are not enough. Heavy armor and fires will be vital to spearhead counter-attacks to drive the invaders into the sea, as I discussed in Military Review.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War, including the revived Syria multi-war, in this post.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it.

NOTE: Photo from Taiwan's Ministry of Defense

The Winter War of 2022 Shifts Gears

The U.S. Army has been called (is it still?) The Green Machine. But while the Army understands that friendly casualties are part of war, the Army does not treat its troops as cannon fodder. Just because Russia treats its troops as cannon fodder doesn't mean Russia's high command wields a machine that it alone controls.

This assessment is on the surface appealing int the terms of the debate: Can Russia recruit enough to make up for losses:

Russian forces have thus suffered an estimated 125,800 casualties during a period of intensified offensive operations in September, October, and November 2024 in exchange for 2,356 square kilometers of gains. (Or approximately 53 Russian casualties per square kilometer of Ukrainian territory seized.) 

Russia's constrained labor pool is likely unable to sustain this increased casualty rate in the medium-term, and continued Western military support for Ukraine remains vital to Ukraine's ability to inflict losses at this rate. US officials reportedly estimated in late October 2024 that Russia's current recruitment rate was between 25,000 and 30,000 new soldiers per month.[3] Ukrainian military observer Petro Chernyk stated on December 3 that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) would have to increase its monthly recruitment rates from 40,000-42,000 recruits to 50,000 recruits in order to seize the remainder of Donetsk Oblast while maintaining their current casualty rate.

The calculations seem very precise. Russia doesn't have a problem.

But Russia's ground forces are not a machine. War is ultimately a human endeavor that relies on people to wage it. And troops are not mere cogs with defined tolerances for how much they can take.

But so far, the Russian and Ukrainian war machines keep functioning. 

And moving beyond a figurative description, a view of the machine to come:

Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted their first attack solely using unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) and first-person view (FPV) drones, highlighting Ukraine's ongoing efforts to leverage technological innovation into ground operations. The spokesperson of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Kharkiv direction reported on December 20 that Ukrainian forces conducted their first ground attack exclusively using robotic systems instead of infantry on an unspecified date near Lyptsi (north of Kharkiv City) and successfully destroyed unspecified Russian positions during the attack. The spokesperson stated that Ukrainian forces conducted the attack with dozens of UGVs equipped with machine guns and also used the UGVs to lay and clear mines in unspecified positions in the area.

UPDATE (Thursday): Russia continues to wage war on Ukraine's civilians:

Many Ukrainians were celebrating without heat or power after Russia launched a Christmas Day assault on the country’s energy infrastructure, an act that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy condemned as “inhuman.”

UPDATE (Thursday): I heard something in this CSIS podcast that confirmed something I suspected. Ukraine is using new manpower and equipment to create new brigades rather than restore existing brigades. Especially experienced and effective existing brigades that are being worn down. Ukraine made this mistake in 2023, building new brigades with new troops and equipment to carry out the failed 2023 counteroffensive. The Union made that mistake in the Civil War--more opportunities to reward supporters. But the Union had industrial and manpower superiority.

UPDATE (Saturday): Russia is attempting to cross the Dnipro River to seize islands on the Kherson front, per the most recent ISW report on the war. Oddly, there is no separate section on this part of the front as there has been in the past. Have I not noticed the consolidation into the broader "southern axis"?

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War and the related Syria events in this post.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I continue posting here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.  

If you have little ones, don't forget the NORAD Santa tracker. My children were impressed by it. Long ago, of course.

Will this prompt a wave of oppression or resistance? "A woman was arrested in Iran after she posted a video of herself singing without a hijab on YouTube, despite the Iranian parliament passage of a new, stricter law on women's modesty that has been criticized by rights groups." 

Air Force Chief of Staff: "My own belief is that the future is really in [creating] the most effective human-machine teaming." When I was but a lad, I recall Isaac Asimov calling this team "C/Fe" for humans (carbon) and robots (iron). 

I fear "mature" doesn't mean affordable, functional, and timely: "The Constellation-class frigate’s design should be mature enough for the shipbuilder to enter continuous production by May, the Navy’s top acquisition executive said this week."

In space nobody can hear your budget request in Moscow. 

China's version of extraterritoriality via its COSCO-run foreign ports. Espionage, tax and border control evasion for the benefit of China, and simple old-fashioned corruption are enabled by this operation.

ECOWAS would prefer democracy: "Leaders of the West African regional grouping, Ecowas, have approved the withdrawal of three countries ruled by the military from the bloc, but have offered a six-month grace period for them to reconsider."

Britain is still enmeshed in the web of EU regulators notwithstanding that negligible obstacle to the proto-imperial EU called Brexit. Read it and weep for democracy and rule of law. Hell, even I underestimated the power of 10,000 cheese regulations.

Don't trust Navy projections of hull count past five years. Navy expansion has faltered for over a decade. Can corvettes, auxiliary cruisers, and packing missiles on existing hulls fill the gap? Small ships could help a bit--but have a fatal flaw. Thumbs up on auxiliary cruisers. I have a post scheduled on the last one.

From the "Well, Duh" files: "Interdicting the flow of missiles, drones and other weapons and parts from Iran to the Yemen-based Houthis is key to keeping Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea safer for merchant shipping, Fleet Forces commander said Thursday."

Like everyone else watching the Winter War of 2022, China wants drones.

"The Quad" seeks naval power to oppose China.

The Navy lacks ships to sustain ground operations. The Army has a ship shortage, too. Allies who rely on American logistics will be on short rations in a major war. Protecting those ships is a problem, too.

If Russia is not defeated in Ukraine, Russia will owe China (not to mention North Korea) big time. While Russia rebuilds its military, helping China conquer Taiwan might be a natural way to seek revenge (while protecting Russia's Far East). That will negate a lot of our pivot to Asia, no?

Not to get into domestic politics, but this article notes that strains of Western admiration for Putin can at least in part be traced to his rejection of radical gender politics pushed in the West. If Trump's election signals a roll back of that push, many conservatives may drift back to opposing Russia--as we should.

Huh: "The U.S. military has carried out a precision airstrike on a key command-and-control facility operated by Iran-backed Houthi militants in Sana’a, Yemen’s capital city, according to U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM)." Maybe we're finally getting serious with Operation Reputation Guardian.

And now, energy shortages in Iran.

I agree that we have more important things to do than try to shape events in western Syria. Let allies with more interest work the problem. But don't help what we pretend are "tame" Islamists. We acted like Iran's revolutionaries, Erdogan, and Taliban 2.0 were safe forms of Islamism. Don't let hope smother experience.

The vulnerability of American air bases in the western Pacific are an opportunity for China: "PLA war planners could calculate they have a window of over 30 days during which U.S. air power would be sidelined to conduct lightning attacks, such as an invasion of Taiwan." The PLA only has to get ashore.

China's economic woes (via Instapundit). Add in Russian economic problems, Iranian economic problems, and the ongoing North Korean economic horror show, the Axis of Steal is looking shaky--or dangerously desperate.

We're so desperate for "moderates" in Syria that we may hallucinate them: "American policymakers should not be credulous. Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham’s record, the consistent trend of deception in jihadism and western naïveté demands extreme suspicion until proven otherwise." They'll pretend while vulnerable.

Does Azerbaijan have more territorial ambitions?

What a wargame for the military really is. But--as the author recognizes--sometimes scripted scenarios designed to test logistics or command-and-control, for example, are needed without allowing free operational choices for the enemy side. But yeah, those aren't really wargames. And aren't predictive.

The non-NATO Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) needs funding: "A summit of a British-led grouping of Nordic and Baltic countries failed to offer much clarity on a defense spending target on Tuesday, with the United Kingdom's Keir Starmer getting the blame." JEF is supposedly able to act while NATO thinks.

Russia counts on NATO restraint: "NATO fighters scrambled seven times during the past week to track down Russian military aircraft violating international aviation regulations over the Baltic Sea, allied defense officials said."

Keep out: "Four days after she was sworn into office, Lithuania’s defense minister, Dovilė Šakalienė, signed an agreement to purchase 44 Leopard 2A8 tanks during her Dec. 16 official visit to Germany." They will work well with a German heavy brigade moving to Lithuania in 2025.

Oh: "The development of a new landing ship key to the Marines Corps’ island-hopping strategy in the Western Pacific is on hold due to Navy concerns over cost, USNI News has learned." Good luck, Marines. 

How is it possible for the Navy to waste so much money on a known ship class? "Poor planning, myriad changes have marred the Congress-mandated effort to refit Ticonderoga cruisers for five more years of life." Was the mandate an error? Depends on whether there is a war in the next several years.

The war on terror is not over: "U.S. forces in the Middle East conducted the second round of strikes in Syria in as many weeks, killing 12 enemy fighters Monday." If the weakening SDF can't keep control of tens of thousands of ISIL members held in prisons in eastern Syria, it will be a target-rich environment.

Ukraine is striking into Russia and Russia can't stop that: "Vladimir Putin is running out of potential solutions and his oligarch and military associates are running out of patience. Without the support of the wealthy business oligarchs and the corrupt generals, Putin cannot rule."

Remember that the "buffer" Russia wants doesn't agree with that fate: "Poland has experienced many tumultuous events in the last two centuries and wants to establish a strong enough military and an array of powerful allies to deal with any potential Russian aggression."

China has banned exports of critical minerals to America: "The move puts a spotlight on America's domestic mineral supplies, many of which are locked in years-long federal permitting and regulatory reviews." Regulations can harm America. And are a form of taxation that push prices up. DOGE? 

The American-backed and Kurdish-led SDF in eastern Syria is facing more Arab defections to the new HTS rulers. Remember that the Kurd-Arab alliance was held together by hatred and fear of Assad. Assad is in Moscow exile now.

The British assisted in the strike on the Houthi I mentioned: "Local Yemeni sources reported that the US-UK airstrike hit the al Arad complex, which hosts the Houthi-held Defense Ministry, and al Hafa base in Sanaa." CENTCOM said the complex was used to coordinate anti-ship strikes.

America shouldn't subsidize terrorists. Apparently that position is controversial. Tip to Instapundit.

China seeks to muffle the federal government's increasing effort to resist China's power by seeking influence in American state and local governments.

I asked on CDR Salamander's blog about the size a corvette would need to be to sail across oceans. One reader cited this Coast Guard cutter, which at 150 feet and 350 tons is certainly corvette-size. It seems a good example--up-armed--to get numbers. But are long deployments common? Do they harm service life?

Good: "The Army is set to begin awarding Master Combat Badges, which will combine expert and traditional combat badges, next spring, according to an internal service memo reviewed by Military.com." Troop skills will be the basis of our tactical superiority as technology brings self-aiming small arms.

Okay: "Russia has approximately 2,000 tactical nuclear weapons in its stockpile – as compared to just over 250 that the US has." One, American precision weapons replace small nukes. Two, Russia's simpler missiles may be the most likely nukes to actually work. Three, Russia needs to deter China.

HTS says it wants a unified Syrian state. Which implicitly threatens the Kurds. Which complements Turkey's objective of destroying the SDF. Turkey appears to be preparing to invade Syria to hit the Kurds. A unified state also rules out regional local rule for Alawites or other minorities. Will they resist this?

More on the Turkish-brokered deal between Ethiopia and Somalia. Ethiopia gets access to the sea--but not a naval base (will Djibouti provide that to keep trade primacy?). Turkey fills the power vacuum, which helps proto-imperial ambitions. Somalia is weakened even if separatism is checked. What about Egypt?

Chechen troops brought them into the fight: "Russian troops in Ukraine have been seen using Chinese 4x4 Tiger/ZFB-05 vehicles." 

We need logistics beyond this region: "For operations in the Pacific around the Okinawa Islands, the Navy must use shallow draft vessels to move around in these waters carrying suppliers and equipment, supply vessels. ... The [U.S. Army] appears to be in better shape in this respect than the Navy or Marine Corps."

America needs to build more warships and logistics ships: "A bipartisan group of lawmakers is hoping to cure America’s maritime-industry woes with the introduction Thursday of an ambitious bill cheekily dubbed the SHIPS (Shipbuilding and Harbor Infrastructure for Prosperity and Security) for America Act."

Good: "[With a project with Finland and America on icebreakers], Canada seems to be shedding its complacency and embracing its identity as an Arctic power—a shift that could redefine the country’s geopolitical role in the 21st century." TDR endorse this Canadian focus. I guess Arctic ice isn't melting.

Will America abandon the Kurds again? We abandoned Iraqi Kurds in the 1970s. But Syria's Kurds use us as much as we use them. We have permanent interests and not permanent allies. One interest is keeping 40,000 ISIL prisoners held by the SDF confined. But is going to war with NATO Turkey okay?

Defeat and victory are both forms of ending a war: "There is peace, and there is peace. Occupation isn’t it. Unpunished aggression isn’t it either. Peace without justice is a harbinger of a bigger war." You may pretend retreat works. For a while. Until the enemy reaches your next defense line. Keep Russia far away.

The longstanding but competing claims that China will collapse or China will dominate the world. I don't rule out collapse, but I've never believed China will dominate the world.

Per the DOD, the U.S. has about 2,000 troops in Syria. The 900 figure is the base figure; the rest are rotation overlap or short-termers for specific missions. I assumed this situation. We never talk about special forces. I've noted how numbers can be fudged, and suspect Russia inflates their Ukraine numbers.

Germany's suicide pact with Europe. How easily America could have taken that path.

The plane is good, but with a long production run that seems like a statement of the obvious: "The Air Force may cut short its planned purchases of F-35 jets, depending on how newer development efforts go, the service’s outgoing secretary said Thursday."

Rotations helped strengthen atrophied muscles unused to moving brigades from America to Europe. But basing there. But now one should be based in Poland: "Rotating an Army tank brigade to Europe costs nearly $70 million more per year than basing that unit permanently in either Germany or Poland"

The American rockets Ukraine has: "HIMARS GMLRS/guided multiple launch rocket system rockets with a range of 83 kilometers to 150 kilometers, ATACMS missiles with a range of 300 kilometers and PrSM/Precision Strike missiles with a range of 500 kilometers."

Assad thought deals with jihadis to go to Idlib province was putting them in a free-fire zone. Instead it was a sanctuary to train and prepare to overthrow Assad and capture Syria. 

There is a surge of claims that the F-35 is a failure. Is this an echo of earlier Russian propaganda designed to kill the plane in the crib? But it is successful in combat. Pilots like it. Buyers want it. I don't see the failure. And I was an early worrier. My worry even post-ALIS is part of military-wide networking worry.

RUMORINT says Assad traded the locations of his armory for Israel's promise not to shoot down his plane ride out of Syria. Certainly plausible. 

Via Instapundit, I will step outside of my blogging lanes. In 1991 with my history MA new-car smell still fresh, I went to the American Historical Association annual convention. My statement of reality was a faux pas. I let my membership lapse. History was far along its path to this travesty of historical inquiry. 

Hmmm. Plausible, I suppose. But I have my doubts that China is more than a small part of the explanation. Stop the small percent, of course.

Star wars: "The U.S. Space Force is on track to field its first batch of a new ground-based satellite communications jammer in the coming months — designed to disrupt signals from enemy spacecraft." Ground-based capabilities remind us that a space navy requires moving beyond the Earth-Moon system.

Obamaism From the Right: "détente with Iran, decoupling from Israel, dovish but transactional relations with Moscow and Beijing, all rationalized by hyperbolic threats of 'all-out war' if the United States dares to assert its interests against its rivals[.]" Ah, unrequited love and "let the Wookie win". Via Instapundit.

I'm so old I remember when we laughed at the Soviet Union propping up a series of near-corpses as their leader. Tip to Instapundit.

Is it just me or do you laugh at stories about the urgency of a new American heavy icebreaker even as it is claimed the Arctic is melting and will be ice-free by DATE [where DATE = CURRENT DATE + TEN YEARS]?

Von der Leyen wants to strengthen the European Union. Well of course she does. Well, she wants the European Union governing bodies strengthened. Anything more is incidental. 

Our "ally" Turkey: "Turkey and Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) are attempting to coerce the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to disarm and integrate into the HTS-led armed forces by threatening the SDF with a full-scale assault against SDF-held areas." Recall Obama lauded "tame" Islamist Erdogan.

ISW now shows the Alawite homeland in coastal Syria as under HTS control. So much for holding a fiefdom to protect themselves.

How Turkey outplayed America and Egypt in the Horn of Africa? It was a power vacuum that America ignored. Turkey filled it. Hard to win a game you aren't playing seriously.

Russians view America as a declining power? Just how vodka addled are these paranoid people? Have they looked in the mirror? Or across their Asian borders? #WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings

The war on Islamist terror is not over: "A freshman at George Mason University is in federal custody after he allegedly plotted a 'mass casualty attack' on the Israeli consulate in New York, according to the FBI."

The war on Islamist terror is not over: "The Dutch authorities see a real risk of attacks, according to National Counterterrorism and Security Coordinator, Pieter-Jaap Aalbersberg, following a deadly attack at a Christmas market in Magdeburg on Friday [that killed 4 and seriously wounded 41]. 

There's nothing "passive" about China's subliminal aggression: "Beijing has also adopted a strategy of 'passive aggression,' using its coast guard and fishing fleets to intimidate Philippine vessels. Recent incidents have included the use of water cannons against Philippine ships and naval blockades ... ."

Call voters horrible people for raising their concerns with the elites leads to distressed people supporting people who listen to their distress: "Economic unease and anger at a system that doesn’t deliver cause voters to push back against those in power—even being willing to support anti-democratic extremists."

From the "Well, Duh" files: "President-elect Donald Trump is expected to push the United States’s NATO allies to increase its defense spending when he returns to the White House next month."

Somebody doesn't like the foreign policy of so-called Responsible Statecraft: "In typical leftist fashion, QIRS turns words inside out to mislead the public. It claims to foster 'realism' when in fact its writers live in a fantasy world." My contempt for Responsible Statecraft is unlimited. 

An author not impressed with China's civilian amphibious lift options. He's not wrong. But with a "thousand grains of sand" approach, a little capability across sea, air, and pre-war infiltration can add up to sufficient lift to win. Especially if you define "win" differently than we in the West do.

Turkey, having helped HTS overthrow Assad, seeks to guide HTS so its creation doesn't bite its hand. Really, the map of HTS control in the assessment is more or less what I described as Assad's Core Syria a dozen years ago.

When you aren't trying to win, the war drags on and stuff like this has more chance to happes: "Two U.S. Navy pilots ejected safely over the Red Sea after their F/A-18 fighter aircraft was mistakenly shot down early Sunday in what military officials are calling 'an apparent case of friendly fire.'" Tip to Instapundit.

The "Easy" button is increased Pacific deployment of Virginia SSNs? "If there were a war with China, one of the main goals would be to disrupt Chinese shipping. ... The Virginias were there to shut down Chinese trade on short notice by deploying hundreds or thousands of naval mines near Chinese ports."

The Russian lust for "Greater Russia". Plus aerial drones. As a not-yet mature weapon, stockpiling aerial drones in peacetime risks obsolescence in just a year or two of sitting in a box. 

Guyana has protested Venezuela's new bridge: "The ministry claims the bridge connects the Venezuelan mainland to a small military base that Venezuela built illegally on Guyana's side of Ankoko, a small island that is mostly inhabited by gold miners and military personnel." Venezuela claims a big chunk of Guyana.

Army magazine's January 2025 issue is out with my article, "Pay Attention to Estonia," regarding the potential Russian "little green men" threat to Narva, patterned on the 1999 Pakistani Kargil War infiltration of India's territory. The Army should prepare now.