Taiwan will conduct war games next week simulating the defense of the island against an attack by China, officials said Wednesday, in drills drawing on US military experience in the two Gulf wars.
The five-day drill beginning Monday will pit a marine brigade -- acting as a mock enemy -- against a motorized infantry brigade defending the island, the defence ministry said.
The marines will land in the southern Pingtung county and encounter the infantry in central Taiwan, it said.
I know the southern part of Taiwan has the beaches for a conventional Saving Private Ryan-style invasion scenario. But I think it is too convenient for the Taiwanese to believe that the Chinese will land as far from Taipei as they can so they can march overland up the entire length of the island along the relatively narrow coastal plain west of the north-south mountainous terrain to reach their objective. This scenario has the added convenience of requiring the Chinese to take the time to build up mechanized forces before breaking out from their bridgehead and heading north.
I think that it makes far more sense for the Chinese to hit Taipei directly from the air with airborne and airmobile forces, with ground forces hitting the ports in northern Taiwan to quickly send whatever they can to hit Taipei, grabbing local transport as needed that only has to run to reach Taipei. I set out my scenario here:
[The] plan will be a direct and fast assault on Taiwan to win before any outside power can save Taiwan from conquest. The Chinese will have four main missions for their military in an invasion: One, landing nine army divisions and one Marine division on Taiwanese territory plus dropping three parachute divisions and one air landing division. Two, securing the sea and air lines of supply and reinforcement from China to Taiwan. Three, keeping American forces away from Taiwan long enough to finish the conquest. This will also include non-military measures. Fourth, the Chinese must defeat the Taiwanese army and conquer the island.
China needs to conquer Taiwan fast to preclude the chance that America and/or Japan can intervene. It is way too convenient for the Taiwanese to assume China will invade to maximize that time.
I guess it is progress that the Taiwanese assume the threat includes invasion. But I think the Taiwanese are still fooling themselves if this is their likely scenario.
