Thursday, November 17, 2011

Assembling the Pieces

Israel will have a better chance of hurting Iran's nuclear infrastructure than people give them credit for. They've had years to prepare and you'd really have to underestimate them to think that they haven't worked to fill in gaps.

In addition to the traditional forms of striking that I laid out here (with an update on the route here) such as commandos, missiles, and aircraft, throw in cyber-warfare and electronic warfare drones:

A U.S. intelligence assessment this summer, described to The Daily Beast by current and former U.S. intelligence officials, concluded that any Israeli attack on hardened nuclear sites in Iran would go far beyond airstrikes from F-15 and F-16 fighter planes and likely include electronic warfare against Iran’s electric grid, Internet, cellphone network, and emergency frequencies for firemen and police officers.

These will help the Israelis get in and out by disrupting command and control and simply adding things to the list of things that Iranians will have to react to, ratcheting up the "noise."

I would like to quibble with this assessment:

At the same time, if past practice is any guide, the Israelis would not likely strike at the same moment that their officials are discussing the prospect in the press. In other words, if Israel is openly discussing a military strike, it is unlikely to be imminent.

But if Israel goes radio silent—like it did in when it attacked a suspected nuclear site in Iraq in 1981—that may be an early warning sign that a strike is nearing.

Israel might actually be aware of this expectation, no?

They could repeatedly talk about a strike, knowing that reactions will be dulled by repeated alarms. I guess I'd be really surprised if Israel didn't do things differently than what even journalists are discussing. After all, we learned that a surge of pizza orders late at night is a dead giveaway that we are up to something.