Weekend Data Dump

Don't even try to believe any administration spin that we didn't lose the Afghanistan war. We will pay a price. Russia is paying a price for invading Ukraine. So we don't think about Afghanistan much. But our jihadi enemies still hate us and want us dead--even blue state Americans. It may take two sides to wage "war" as those on the left are wont to say. But it only takes one side to kill. Have a super sparkly day.

Liz Truss will be the new British prime minister. Best wishes, naturally.

The Germans say that Russia's natural gas embargo will test European unity. Last week I reported that Germany was pretty confident of making it through the winter. And other Europeans seemed cautiously optimistic. What's going on? And why isn't America drilling and fracking like mad?

The Russians are using the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant as a nuclear shield for their forces, even firing from positions about a half mile from a reactor. The Russians seem like such nice people.

Why does Biden want Europeans to freeze? "The Biden administration has leased fewer acres for oil-and-gas drilling offshore and on federal land than any other administration in its early stages dating back to the end of World War II, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis." Tip to Instapundit.

Taiwan wants even more HIMARS and ATACMS. Part of that is due to the inability to buy 40 Paladin self-propelled 155mm howitzers because of American production difficulties. FFS. The article also discusses Japanese defense expansion.

The Fuck-Up Fairy visited Islamic Jihad in Gaza.

Can space save Earth? I certainly hope space can revive the West. Via Instapundit.

DARPA is working on making communications via 5G phone networks secure. Which is good because China is investing heavily in building 5G networks around the world. The project is called "GECCO — generating communications channels to operate." That's lame, even for government acronyms. Our people couldn't come up with Getting Eavesdropping Chinese Communists Out? But I never get my way. Not ever. Although I still retain hope for Space Marines Orbital Detachment.

Biden is betraying a lot of people by making them pay off student loans of the wealthy. Biden pisses me off for a number of things. But this really stings. And I'm far from alone. Let's go, Brandon. Tip to Instapundit.

I entered my adult years in a bad economic situation. And it looks like I'll try to draw my retirement funds in a bad economic situation. Well that's just great. Still, is it accurate to say there is no detente with China to take the edge off international relations given the very high levels of trade between America and China? I really think the historian is implicitly overstating what detente with the USSR provided. We do have one advantage over the Cold War era.

The F-35 is winning customers in Europe as stealth seems very important in light of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. I will note that while the plane is stealthy, the airfields it takes off from are not. I should note that I have a small amount of Lockheed Martin stock. As I note in Sources and Methods.

Kosmos 2558 and the battle for space use.

After Biden's speech from the gates of Hell demonizing Republicans (tip to Instapundit), I reflect on my 2020 thoughts: "The Trump era was the culmination of the 'othering' of conservatives by liberals. Unless it happens in the Biden era, of course. It can always get worse." It got worse. Will it get worse? And yes, Biden has always been an awful man.

Chilean voters rejected a left-wing constitution. Via Instapundit.

Actual obstruction of justice in regard to possession of classified documents. That's different because shut up. Via Instapundit.

Sure, this is both stupid and wrong. But you think our times today are filled with unrest and violence? Let's talk New York City 50-60 years ago when arson was a hobby and firefighters often needed police escorts just to put out fires. Yeah, I read that book when it came out. People forget the past. We're in effing paradise now, by comparison to that era's violence. Back then people couldn't act out on social media. All of it was on the streets.

Interesting: "Russian President Vladimir Putin stated on September 5 that personnel in the 1st and 2nd Army Corps (the armed forces of the DNR and LNR) are fighting better in Donbas than professional Russian soldiers and insinuated that he is unhappy with the performance of the Russian Ministry of Defense."

If true, Russian production capacity must be inadequate: "The Russian Ministry of Defense is in the process of purchasing millions of rockets and artillery shells from North Korea for its ongoing fight in Ukraine, according to a newly downgraded U.S. intelligence finding." Lord, how old is the North Korean ammo?

Remain calm! All is well! "Russia may face a longer and deeper recession as the impact of US and European sanctions spreads, handicapping sectors that the country has relied on for years to power its economy, according to an internal report prepared for the government." Still, given time sanctions usually wear off as sanctioning countries weary of them and as the sanctioned find ways around them. Oil-for-Food scandal, anyone?

The U.S. will need a lot more ammunition for great power war. I've been banging on that drum for a while now. Countries always grossly underestimate ammo usage and always forget that lesson. America has a problem because in the past we've encouraged allies to rely on America for war reserves stocks, as I note in the previous link. The problem is even worse because we don't have enough big guns.

Build more carriers and send them to CENTCOM? I think our big deck numbers need to go down. That we can send carrier air wing elements to CENTCOM land bases. And for God's sake don't put carriers in the Persian Gulf!

The Army personnel crisis. 

India still underperforms in the military grouping that is coalescing to resist China.

The A-10 keeps getting updated to support ground troops in the face of better air defenses despite long Air Force efforts to get rid of it. Even if multi-role F-35s could do the job better from high altitude, the A-10 demonstrates commitment to close air support. 

When friendly fire works to society's advantage. Tip to PJ Media.

Defending Gotland from Russia (video).

The Solomon Islands government says that Australia and New Zealand--unlike America--can continue to visit its ports during visit moratorium.

We dropped by because we were in the neighborhood--with aerial refueling.

Army heavy brigade rotations in Europe continue. And to save the heavy brigades for Europe, a Stryker brigade is rotating through South Korea. But heavy armor will remain stored in South Korea.

I will say, if CNN can make its news reporting straight just the facts--and I don't care about clearly separate opinion shows--they could actually get my eyeballs for a good portion of time.

Via Treacher, no senior American military or civilian official has resigned or been fired over the American "withdrawal" from Afghanistan. Calling our humiliating defeat--an own goal--a "withdrawal" may be part of the deliberate confusion from the top. Purge 'em all, let God sort them out.

Germany will keep a couple nuclear plants on standby over the winter but doesn't anticipate using them because Germany seems secure for energy. What about the rest of Europe that could use some of the energy Germany is using instead of the nukes' electricity? Is this the cause of potential divisions within Europe I've read about?

The Mali government is blowing the decade of time the French intervention bought for it.

The Russians deployed new S-350 air defenses to protect Su-35 air bases inside Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory.

Taiwan carried out military drills.

I actually have that medal. Not that I had to do anything for it. The most I can say is that my unit was ordered to the Persian Gulf in 1991--and then it wasn't. And then the war ended.

Good: "President Biden will host leaders from Pacific Island countries later this month in a demonstration of the 'deep and enduring partnership' of the U.S. and the region, the White House announced Friday."

Well sure, Russia can interfere with NATO use of the Baltic Sea. But over time during a war it would become a "NATO lake."

Putin declares a "Russian world" that asserts the duty to protect ethnic Russians outside its border. #WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings

Meanwhile in Israel's war against Iran inside Syria.

If the government had to "cancel" $10,000 dollars of student loans, it should have been the last $10,000 they owe. At least the interest paid to get there would somewhat pay for it. And those more responsible would get the benefit sooner.

The Navy wants hypersonic missiles and lasers on its destroyers. Okay. But I mostly just want more destroyers.

HIMARSfishing. Via Instapundit.

Japanese security expert: "'The Russians made a big mistake' not realizing that their largest security challenge was China, not NATO, Miyake argued." Quite right.

Indeed: "According to Russian media, Xi will attend a summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Uzbekistan where he will meet with Putin." Opportunity.

The time of the tank is not over. Indeed.

China isn't about to catch up with America or other Asian states in per capita income. I've said as much.

The British were able to substitute their other carrier for exercises in place of a disabled carrier. But how long will Britain be able to have one available when the ships aren't so new?

Will Russia's invasion pose a threat to Ukraine's energy grid?

China's personnel quality doesn't match their shiny weapons that still have their new car smell.

Cumulative American military aid to Ukraine. 

Preparing Western defense industries to gear up for the logistics strain of a long war. More.

Poland is really arming up. Attack helicopters now. 

Adding reasons we need a flag officer purge. Our enemies prefer wokeness to infect our country.

The new Philippines government is interested in expanding American access to its bases. Counting on Chinese good will failed spectacularly.

It's nice that the Navy is making its carriers part of a networked force. But why keep fitting that square platform-centric behemoth into a network-centric hole?

With an eye on China, America's position in northern Australia is getting larger. We started small.

Queen Elizabeth II passed away. I'm hardly a royalist, but sympathies to our British and Commonwealth friends.

Civilians plagued by jihadi terrorists often think Western drone attacks are superior to enduring the jihadi threat. Enemies pretend our drones are a human rights violation. Morons believe our enemies.

China enters the Heart of Cobalt.

That, my Democratic friends, is brave Resistance to a dangerous autocrat. Let's hope they don't fall out of open windows in some tall building.

Russia continues to lose combat aircraft. 

All your Russians are belong to me.

Iraq can't get through to Russian customer support for its Mi-8/17 helicopters.

All Quiet on the Western Front.

The Week in Pictures.

Well, another 9/11 anniversary passes. Our enemies are at war with us. Does our government think it "ended" the war on (Islamist) terrorism by losing the Afghanistan campaign?

Let's hold off on flinging panties for a bit, shall we? "Ukraine’s stunning counteroffensive in Kharkiv is the type of military action that will be written about and analyzed for decades, maybe centuries." [emphasis added] Ukraine had a good week. It needs many more such weeks. Perspective, people.

Would Russia really respond to battlefield setbacks by using tactical nukes? Wouldn't that expose the lie of the small "special military operation"? Wouldn't that scare other Russians into overthrowing Putin? And what would tactical nukes do other than shock Ukraine and the world? Would Ukraine break? Or would the world isolate Russia even more? America greatly reduced tactical nuke holdings because precision weapons can carry out most of the jobs the small nukes used to be built to handle. The right Western response might be to give Ukraine ATACMS and other longer range conventional precision missiles.

And Now For Something Completely Different

I got a date with the meme. Put it on my blog post. Gonna catch the kids dry. Gonna walk on water.

 

 

This is a rerun.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

Don't Replace the USSR With an EU Threat

America should never support a stronger European Union in the mistaken belief that powerful EU will be an ally of America

The idea that America should want a better armed (and more politically unified) European Union is so fucking stupid that I am nearly speechless. Nearly. Russia's invasion of Ukraine is just the latest excuse for the means to help the EU take political power from member states.

The EU doesn't want to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with America. The EU wants to replace NATO in order to eject America from Europe. Europeans should rearm--within NATO. America should never support the drive of largely anti-American Euro elites to strip the prefix from the proto-imperial EU.

Even as we complain that Europe doesn't arm up enough to defend itself, remember that it is in America's interest to defend Europe to keep it from being a threat to America:

The United States, which is both rich and strong, has to defend Europe because the wealth, technology and knowledge of Europe in the hands of other states might imperil the United States.

Truly, we might want to be careful what we wish for on the European rearmament issue, as Friedman notes: "Armament and disarmament are both troubling."

Don't let the Euro elites ride from crisis to crisis to an imperial state. 

Hell, a common resistance to a dangerous EU empire could heal U.S.-Russian relations. 

And an EU state isn't just a long-term threat to American security. Do Europeans really want to throw away their freedom and democracy nurtured under American protection after World War II to become subjects under imperial rulers? Will the imperial dreams of past European rulers be realized under the constraints of ten thousand cheese regulations?

NOTE: War coverage continues here.

Distance From Russia is Our Friend

Until Russia's leadership stops being paranoid and aggressive morons--with nukes--the West needs to keep Russia's western border as far east as possible.

Yes, a strong Ukraine is the key to blocking Europe's Russia problem:

Half a year after the launch of Russia’s invasion, it is evident that Ukraine is no longer a post-Soviet state. Instead, Ukraine has returned to its historic position within the family of European nations. This return was formalized in summer 2022 when the European Union granted Ukraine official EU candidate nation status. I only wish this success had not come at such a staggering price.

Ukraine’s further integration will benefit Europe as a whole. The events of the past six months have illustrated that Europe will become significantly more secure if it recognizes that Ukraine can serve as a shield in the east. Europe has a Russia problem and a strong Ukraine is the obvious solution. 

Ukraine has already provided ample evidence that Russia will back down whenever it encounters serious resistance. On multiple occasions, Russian troops have responded to battlefield setbacks with retreats disguised as “goodwill gestures.” The lesson for advocates of appeasement could not be clearer: failure to confront Russia will lead to escalating aggression, whereas a firm response will force Russia to back down and withdraw.

Granted, that's the Ukrainian defense minister's view. He's understandably biased. And no way have 45,000 Russian troops died in the war so far. But he has a point in the big picture.

While Ukraine's bravery is key, blocking Russia clearly requires the financial, industrial, and technological might of the West to make that bravery more than a moral victory of defiantly losing to a larger enemy. 

In the long run, Ukraine can't count on this level of support and sacrifice from the West to counteract Russia's size. Ukraine needs to defeat corruption to avoid just being a smaller and weaker version of corrupt Russia. Then it won't require nearly as much Western help to stop Russia. And if Ukraine is much stronger, joining NATO won't be the risk it seems right now to the West, which is having to really strain to support Ukraine.

Keep the Russians as far east as possible. They have no natural borders for their paranoia and ambitions. If the foundation of Putin's decision-making is cultural paranoia, we can't ever reassure him--or his likely replacement.

Chimpanzees with nukes, I say. 

NOTE: War coverage continues here.

Entering the PLAN's SINKEX Around Taiwan?

Is the Marine Corps strategy of deploying anti-ship teams to changing positions around the Western Pacific the key to keeping China from invading Taiwan? We may just be entering a Chinese SINKEX.

This is interesting:

Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger believes that the threat of having Marines leapfrogging from island to island plinking at Chinese warships in the South China Sea with anti-ship missiles will either deter China from starting a war or will be decisive in winning it.

He is wrong.

China's warships are a very expendable part of its overall strategy. The Chinese believe their mobile missile launchers, high endurance drones, reconnaissance satellites and swarms of attack aircraft, combined with attack submarines, would be sufficient to create a bubble that would prevent Americans from interfering with an invasion of Taiwan. 

I have a strong suspicion that the author is correct.

The "bubble" is the key. As I've long argued, China doesn't need to defeat America to defeat Taiwan. China needs to delay America long enough to defeat Taiwan:

As I've droned on repeatedly here, China does not need to defeat America to conquer Taiwan. China needs to defeat Taiwan to conquer Taiwan. And to defeat Taiwan, China only needs to delay our intervention long enough to defeat and conquer Taiwan. This is a far less difficult mission than deterring America or defeating us.

And losing a large portion of China's fleet might be a perfectly acceptable price to take their most core interest:

If the US intervenes, the Chinese will use whatever anti-satellite weapons they have and will try to slow down the US by threatening us with attack. I think they will refrain from striking first but will put forces in positions that will be threatening to us if left alone. The time it will take for the US to decide to engage Chinese PLAN forces will be valuable. The Chinese will sacrifice their fleet to take Taiwan, if necessary. They think long-term, remember? So what if they need another twenty years to rebuild what we sink?

I called it a Chinese SINKEX playing on Navy history that seeks World War II Pacific glory:

The Chinese aircraft carrier would have a role in slowing down our intervention, too. China's first carrier was for studying and training. China's true carriers will be Chinese designed vessels. Those China probably wouldn't risk. But the old Varyag? If I was in charge of the PLAN (People's Liberation Army Navy), I'd dangle that carrier and some escorts northeast of Taiwan. As I noted, its presence would give us pause. And force us to approach more cautiously.

The final contribution of that first Chinese carrier to delaying our intervention could be to tempt us into taking the time to set up and execute the perfect naval strike mission. Sure, having sovereign pieces of US territory that serve as power projection assets is useful. And the Navy trumpets that mission in budget battles. But the Navy--deep down--wants to exercise sea control and take down another navy that tries to wrest it from us. It would be the best SINKEX, ever.

Adding Marine quills to a Taiwanese "porcupine" strategy may simply add to the price China pays to win. Don't pretend we know how much pain an enemy will endure to win. 

Without a doubt, Ukraine's anti-tank "quills" have inflicted a heavy price on Russia's armored vehicle force. But more than six months later, Russia is still holding a lot more territory than it had at the start of the war. I refuse to worship at the altar of asymmetry.

And it gets worse for Taiwan. To defeat Taiwan, unlike my earlier assumption, Taiwan doesn't even need to conquer Taiwan. As time has gone on, I started to examine my assumption. As I argued in Military Review, the PLA just needs to get ashore and hold on until it gets a ceasefire. 

Analysis of the Russian invasion that notes even with a ceasefire Russia will hold a lot of crucial territory reinforces my changing view. Ukraine will be in a difficult position unless it drives back Russian forces at least from the critical southern front along the Black Sea coast.

Again, before we decide we can defeat China in a war over Taiwan, we need to understand what China considers a victory.

NOTE: War coverage continues here.

RIP IFV?

Is the Infantry Fighting Vehicle a flawed concept that should be dumped in favor of the cheaper but less capable Armored Personnel Carrier that is more suitable to deploying infantry out of enemy line of sight to fight on foot?

Is the IFV a needless and overly expensive alternative to APCs? 

The recent reorganisations of the procurement budget cancelled the Warrior infantry fighting vehicle (IFV) upgrade. Instead Warrior will be replaced by the wheeled Boxer armoured personnel carrier (APC). Some have greeted this as the end of the British Army’s armoured warfare capability, such as it is. Upon reflection I believe that the Army has ducked a bullet; the IFV concept is fundamentally flawed, delivering expensive but unnecessary capability at the cost of more useful ones. Deleting Warrior is as necessary doctrinally as financially.

The author addresses attack and defense problems with the British Warrior IFV and says that new technology can address the enemy problems that delivering and supporting infantry right up to the enemy defensive positions. He says the APC is what the British army needs.

We'll ignore the unnecessary "u" that the British seem committed to after all these years.

But I digress.

But early Russian BMP-1s are hardly the standard to judge IFVs, right? Yes, it was designed for a contaminated battlefield (nuclear, biological, and chemical). And the idea that troops on the inside of a bouncing IFV could see--let alone accurately shoot--turned out to be ridiculous. But we learned from that. I remember being surprised in the National Guard to crawl into a Bradley and discover they no longer had firing ports on them. 

Bradley Fighting/Cavalry Vehicles seemed to work well in Iraq during two wars for the United States Army. Would APCs have worked as well? I have to believe that even newer M-113s would not have worked as well as Bradleys with their heavier armor, chain guns, and anti-tank missiles. Or as well as British Warrior IFVs, which lack an anti-tank missile I should note.

If tanks can be destroyed (they can), so can IFVs. I admit that I worry (in Infantry magazine) about the IFV moving closely with the tanks where the infantry can be killed with the vehicle. APCs seem dangerous to crew and passengers if exposed to direct fire. Until the IFV drops its slab and the infantry dismounts, enemy anti-tank weapons can kill a lot of troops. So I'm not unsympathetic to his concerns.

And he makes points that seem good to me. Perhaps lighter armor on APCs that avoid being in line of sight from enemy anti-tank weapons are fine. They'd have just enough armor to guard against shell fragments and small arms. I'm no combat veteran, however. I'd like to read more on this issue.

Still, British needs are different than American needs. Until Russia invaded Ukraine this year and revived interest in land warfare in Europe, Britain was committed to a global navy-based defense policy. If Britain faces the choice of enough APCs or insufficient IFVs--even if IFVs are superior--the better choice is the APC.

NOTE: War coverage continues here.

The Winter War of 2022 Buffers

Ukraine announced a week ago that its southern counteroffensive had officially begun. But the switch from bombarding logistics lines to retaking territory in wholesale amounts is taking time to unfold.

Ukraine's efforts to interrupt Russian supply lines northwest of Crimea continue. And Ukraine has been pushing and probing along the Kherson line west of the Dnieper River. ISW reports that the Ukrainians don't have the units to simply punch a hole in Russia's line and that it will take time to achieve results.

In the east, Ukraine continues to hold off small and largely unsuccessful Russian attacks along the Donbas front. Russia seems to have culminated for all practical purposes, as I wrote last week.

On the surface, it still appears to be a stalemate with Russia winning the territorial contest and Russia seemingly more affected by casualties than Ukraine. But Ukraine seems to have the trends going in its favor. I've written as much. Do read it all. But can Ukraine use that edge to push Russia to defeat? Can Ukraine send enough body bags home to Mother Russia (which I've long identified as a Russian weakness), as I wrote last December?

Mind you, I over-estimated what Russia could do notwithstanding my view that Russia's military was grossly overrated. Russia never made it to the river line all across the front. But then again, I didn't think Putin would assume he needed nothing more than a victory parade and throw away time, men, and equipment for the first weeks of war. Russia could have achieved more if it started the war believing it was actually going to war. But grant that my broader point of exaggerated Russian strength was valid.

What is Ukraine using for its counteroffensive? Has Ukraine built a new army in the six months since Russia invaded? If Ukraine has new brigades filled with newly trained recruits, a lot of Western equipment, and Ukrainian combat veterans as a cadre of leadership, we could see them in action soon. Certainly, interesting things started to happen before the announced counteroffensive.

Apparently the Ukrainians believe their firepower offensive and Russia's continued attempt to attack will lead to a Russian ground forces getting so shaky that they'll topple:

Much is made in the media about the coming Ukrainian offensive. That has been underway for over a month but without much fanfare or compelling video of Ukrainians on the attack. Ukraine is forming some tank brigades, but mainly to threaten the Russians, not attack them head on. When the Russian forces eventually begin to collapse, then the tank and mechanized brigades will move quickly to liberate cities and large towns.

Could be. The blurry start of the offensive may reflect that plan, which Ukraine is basically asserting:

Ukrainian officials directly stated on September 3 that the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive in southern Ukraine is an intentionally methodical operation to degrade Russian forces and logistics, rather than one aimed at immediately recapturing large swathes of territory.

The Russians collapsed in World War I; as did the French for a while, refusing to attack (but the Germans never discovered this and the French recovered); and of course, the German army broke near the end on the Western front. Although I prefer to call this "shaping" the campaign area, rather than being the offensive in action.

In some ways the Ukrainian counteroffensive is like the earlier Russian offensive in the Donbas. Ukraine is using ground probes to further expose targets for Ukrainian firepower. The differences are that Ukraine is using more precise and smaller-scale firepower, isn't hitting civilians, and isn't following up with ground units to force back the Russians at high cost.

Have no doubt, despite Ukraine having success "shaping" the battlefield in the south, ultimately Ukraine has to have a visible victory over the stalled Russian army holding Kherson:

An army defending from static positions can endure logistical shortcomings and the slow grind of combat, but may fall apart when attacked with intent to overrun or encircle. To enjoy strategic success, damage to Russian forces must be accompanied by liberation of real territory of strategic importance.

Or victory somewhere. I can't rule out that the Kherson front is a feint, but I strongly doubt it. The front makes too much sense. And has since Kherson fell.

I'd rather see Ukraine mount a clearly successful counteroffensive sooner rather than later to avoid giving Russia time to regroup--and time for the West to grow weary of supporting Ukraine. But I have no idea if Ukrainian new units are ready--or even if many are forming. If there is no new army and Ukraine had to pull units that have slowed, bled, and largely stopped the Russian invasion from the line to rebuild and rest, that will take some time.

Certainly, a failed Ukrainian counteroffensive could bolster Russian morale and shake Ukrainian resolve. Not to mention risk Western countries eager to restore their economies pressuring Ukraine with reduced logistics support to cut a deal at the price of lost territory. 

So I understand the refusal to rush in before ready. Yet if this war goes into the winter and the next year, the war could turn in different and dangerous directions. But at least Ukraine has started. Friends of Ukraine need to be patient.

UPDATE (Wednesday) Early in the week, ISW assessed that Ukraine is making territorial progress: 

The Ukrainian counteroffensive is making verifiable progress in the south and the east. Ukrainian forces are advancing along several axes in western Kherson Oblast and have secured territory across the Siverskyi Donets River in Donetsk Oblast.

Earlier talk I reported of attacking in Donetsk was not empty. Even if not a major offensive, the eastern gains will draw off Russian forces and attention from the Kherson front. Hopefully, Ukraine is not taking casualties too heavy to achieve their objectives.

In addition, the shaping aspect is intensified:

Ukrainian officials explicitly confirmed that Ukrainian troops seek to attrit Russian logistical capabilities in the south through precision strikes on manpower and equipment concentrations, command centers, and logistics nodes.

I assume this is enabled by the Ukrainian ground attacks forcing Russian movement and concentration to react to the attacks.

This analyst says that the Ukrainians are more interested in getting the Russians to retreat than in killing Russians and destroying their equipment at the price of higher Ukrainian casualties. 

In addition, Ukraine is seemingly taking advantage of Russian troop diversions from the east to the south by launching some local counter-attacks there.

UPDATE (Friday): The big news is a sizable Ukrainian advance in the East with some apparent momentum.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here.

Weekend Data Dump

The new Battle for Guadalcanal? Tip to Instapundit.

While most of the Russian regional volunteer units are worthless, "the Russians are trying is to take the most promising of the recently recruited regional battalions and organizing them into the 3^rd Corps, which has the most modern tanks and IFVs (Infantry Fighting Vehicles), small arms and equipment in general and paying these new soldiers well and on time to be shock troops able to actually push the Ukrainians back." I assume the "corps" is a division-sized force. And it won't be very good.

I have never understood why Democrats say Republicans are hypocrites for taking advantage of government programs Republicans oppose. Those Republicans also pay taxes they oppose. And Democrats who want higher taxes don't voluntarily pay more--which they can do--absent a law establishing that higher tax. Laws apply to everyone. Or should, anyway.

Russia claims Western sanctions are not working and that Russia is fine. Is it a Potemkin defense industry? 

Yeah, I don't pin my hopes on Putin losing power/dying. A replacement could be worse. Don't count on a democrat rising from that power structure. Just hope someone unwilling to bolster Putin's glory and instead cut Russia's losses. Remember, restoring economic ties can be the "reward" for retreating and accepting Ukraine's victory.

Well that's awkward: "Russia is losing control of the 20 percent of Ukrainian territory they occupy. Even in areas (Crimea and Donbas) occupied since 2014) the inhabitants are refusing to support the Russian war effort. Currently, few Ukrainians or Russians living in Crimea or Donbas are willing to join the military or police."

Are Russian KIA higher than thought? Ukraine now believes Russia's wounded-to-killed ratio is 2:1. Which reflects exploding tanks and really poor medical care. Ukraine says its own ratio is 4.5:1. Or the wounded are far fewer than we think. Russia hides the information for a reason. 

That's disturbing: "[It appears Russia cannot obtain enough troops to win in Ukraine, much less stop the Ukrainian offensive. The Russian response is to deliberately target economic targets. If the Russians can’t have it, the Russians are trying to ensure that the Ukrainians can’t either." If Ukraine pushes Russia out, Russia will have done what I thought made more sense than a big invasion.

Russia is holding its big Vostok military drills focused on "potential threat from the direction of the Pacific Ocean." I bet. For the first time China is sending air, ground, and naval forces to participate in Vostok. This is not a sign of alliance. This is China getting a closer look at how bad Russia's forces in the Far East are. Opportunity is knocking.

Via Instapundit, Kazakhstan is halting all military exports for a year.  I guess Kazakhstan really doesn't want to be next on Putin's list. Does Kazakhstan have much of a defense industry? Moments later after a quick search, huh.

The seduction of the flag officers. I'm worried. Sadly, I don't expect the logical solution.

How Iran fights Israel to the last Arab. To be fair, those particular Arabs are eager to kill Jews.

So our government experts were afraid of offending gay men by giving Monkeypox advice that the gay men figured out and are doing. What would we do without experts?

The government-formation stalemate has come to this: "Explosions and rocket fire blasted Baghdad's Green Zone on August 29 after hundreds of supporters of influential Shi'ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr stormed government buildings as tensions soared between Sadrists and rival Iran-backed Shi'ite groups." Phase IX of the Battle for Iraq continues. And Sadr is supposed to be the good guy in this. We'll see. The least-bad, I'll concede, given Iran is on the other side. But no retreat from our embassy.

Will America help Ukraine enough to win? Sometimes I wonder if the level is intended to absolve the administration of blame. That may not be fair given how much we have helped. And I've been pleasantly surprised. But I can't shake that worry.

India and Russia don't need dollars to trade. That works as long as the trade is fairly balanced. Piling up the other's currency in vaults doesn't seem that valuable.

Russia's troop morale and home front willingness to sacrifice to fight the war against Ukraine are faltering.

Indeed: "Clashes between U.S. troops and Iran-backed militias in Syria this month have prompted new scrutiny of the Pentagon’s mission in Syria, as tit-for-tat strikes threaten to escalate tensions in the region." Americans should decide why our troops might fight and die there.

"All" the military aid America has sent to Ukraine. Javelins are not surface-to-air missiles. They are anti-tank missiles.

At least the Army isn't recruiting from prisons. So we've got that going for us.

Exoskeletons for troops handling heavy loads. That sounds good. What won't work is one for marching infantry. If the exoskeleton allows troops to carry 100 pounds more, senior officers will add 100 more pounds of equipment and supplies to carry. And when the exoskeleton breaks ...

Terrorists rise in Afghanistan.

Committing war crimes to try to suppress growing Ukrainian civilian resistance to Russia.

The lunatics are in charge: "Colorado Secretary of State Jena Griswold says Republicans plan to attack Americans' right to vote if they are able to win this year's midterm elections."

 

As I've said for a long time now, the most significant election "rigging" in 2020 was the media's cooperation with Democrats to hurt Trump and sustain the meat sack hiding in the basement with a (D) after his name.

India balances between the West and Russia over Ukraine. I give India some slack. India needs Russian weapons to face China. And India might be the power that can "flip" Russia. India is seeking relevant lessons, of course.

AFRICOM has a lot to do. And it's the economy-of-force command.

Would somebody please alert the Marines? "The Solomon Islands will no longer allow U.S. naval vessels access to its ports pending "updates in protocol procedures," according to the U.S. Embassy in Australia." Is China updating the protocol? #Smart Diplomacy®

I still don't understand why America isn't pumping and digging up as much fossil fuel energy as we can to help Europe this winter. Is Europe telling us they'll be fine? And even if true, what about poorer countries? How will they do without sufficient energy?

I'd love to blame Biden, but I don't think that flooding Ukraine with weapons before Russia invaded would have deterred Russia. Putin, backed by his intelligence people, believed Ukraine would welcome Russian troops. Putin would have just thought he'd do better than the Taliban in grabbing American weapons.

Good: "Russia has faced technical problems with Iranian-made drones acquired from Tehran this month for use in its war with Ukraine, according to Biden administration officials."

This TDI post is interesting and in part mirrors my 2004 amateur efforts on Iraqi insurgent effectiveness (you have to go to the September 14, 2004 entry in this massive monthly compilation):
His measure said there was a big drop after the November battle for Fallujah. I believe I ended my effort when I read definitions of "attacks" changed. But the methodology was in the right direction. And yeah, as I followed the war I figured we were defeating the insurgencies (Lord, my posts could be long then). Do read it all.

Uh oh. How long can I delay buying gasoline?

I'm so old I remember when it was horrible to question the Patriotism of the other political party. Let's go, Brandon! Unless the Democrats want to use the speech to 25th Amendment the man.

Heads should roll in the Pentagon if we haven't ramped up ammunition production to replenish stocks sent to Ukraine since the war began six months ago. We have been granted the gift of knowing a weakness. Fix it.

Via Instapundit, Britain's carrier Prince of Wales has broken down and will be out for repairs for "a significant period". The British have organized their shrinking fleet around a carrier task force. What's left when the carrier is gone?

Iran captured an American sea drone in the Persian Gulf but dropped their tow only when American forces showed up.  That's a problem, as I noted: "How does an unmanned ship react to an Iranian boarding party? The unmanned vessels should have the ability to detonate. Perhaps Iran losing a boarding party will deter future efforts to take one of them."

Can we double-crop a lot of our fields for more food? I know way too little to know if we should do this all the time or whether soil is depleted too much for more than an emergency situation. What about the fertilizer for that? Isn't that a problem now, too? And why don't we have the same urgency for fossil fuels?

Tigray rebels vowed to keep fighting Ethiopia's government.

So Libya is still happening.

ScanEagle.

The Coast Guard is helping African countries with coastal water control skills.

Gorbachev died. Yes, let's all be grateful that the last communist ruler of the USSR didn't unleash a global nuclear war to defend a hideous, brutal, failing system. Excuse me if I don't fling panties at his memory. May he rot in the Hell he so richly deserves with the rest of his Marxist predecessors.

Huh: "Environment officials from the Group of 20 leading rich and developing nations met Wednesday on Indonesia’s resort island of Bali for talks on climate action[.]" Question. Did they all fly there?

Germany says it is prepared to get through the winter despite Russia throttling energy imports. Other Europeans seem cautiously optimistic. Good.

Yeah: "For all my disagreements with the MAGA folks, they’re not the American Taliban. If they were the Taliban, Biden would’ve already surrendered."

I strictly follow the DiCaprio dating rule. Now if only women would agree with me. 

Good: "Fincantieri Marinette Marine will officially start building the first Constellation-class frigate at its yard in Marinette, Wis., today." Fingers crossed that we can still build surface ships in America.

Via Instapundit, the Air Force on Guam will stop using gender pronouns in certain written documents to improve "lethality". I stand corrected:

I had forgotten that the revenue to the government from student loans being repaid would help fund Obamacare. Oh well. No worries, those new IRS agents will squeeze it out of the blue collar workers being taxed to pay rich people's student loans. It all evens out. Via Instapundit.

NATO is learning lessons from the Russian invasion of war, especially the speed of weapons and ammunition use. Indeed. NATO is learning a lot from Ukraine's fight.

Are the Ukrainians preparing to counterattack in the Donbas? Ukrainians say the Russians attack in platoon or smaller elements. Which is weak. Neither side can be strong everywhere. How do forces match up across the front?

Judging Putin: "For a man who was perceived for decades as playing a masterful game of geopolitical chess, [invading Ukraine] was an 'own goal' of biblical proportions." Russia effed up. I was never impressed.

China is furious about a UN report on China's treatment of its Uighur minority. I heard the UN official released the report before quitting.

It seems clear that society influences stated sexual orientation. That is not to say orientation isn't something you are born with. Who knows? And it isn't to say that past lower rates for identifying as LGBT are the natural base rate. I have no idea how to interpret the data. Or the accuracy of the data. More importantly, I reject the years span for Boomers. The man who defined Gen X put me in that cohort and that's where I'm staying. Identity that. Tip to Instapundit.

How is it constitutional not to have one-person, one vote to decide a federal election? Tip to Instapundit.

The new 105mm howitzer for American aerial gunships. This is confusing to me. Howitzer are indirect weapons with steep trajectories. While using existing howitzers made sense originally, why not use direct-fire cannons for the new one? Is it a recoil issue? What don't I understand? And I assume it is something I'm just ignorant about, to be clear.

Why can't Germany produce more weapons? And I'd like to point out something from the article that I've droned on about annoyingly for decades: "The United States, which is both rich and strong, has to defend Europe because the wealth, technology and knowledge of Europe in the hands of other states might imperil the United States." 

Fuck the teacher unions that did this to our children. Tip to Treacher.

More on China's small space planes. Tip to Instapundit.

Mars needs people! 

False patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel. When the Federation finds out what Biden has done here on Earth, they'll be pissed:

Seriously, is Biden going to increase the rhetoric and legal system harassment of Republicans until he provokes a riot? A riot he'll claim "proves" his warning? A riot that means none of Biden's failures and mental deterioration matter? Is this the Democrats' 2022 election strategy?

Iran's Yemen front.

Free from EU shackles, Britain aims for space. And China.

The trouble with Moqtada al-Sadr. I thought it was because he's a three-time insurrectionist and a past(?) hand puppet of Iran. I fear we'll rue the day we didn't arrest or kill him when we had the chance.

Western nations seem to be resigned to a long war in Ukraine. Will support to Ukraine continue? Or will Russia outlast Western resolve?

Let's go, Brandon. And the donkey he rode in on.

Say, is this full fascism or just semi-fascism? Tip to Treacher. And curse him for spoiling a meme I already have scheduled to publish in a week.

The stupid! It burns! Tip to Instapundit.

If Biden's dark, dangerous, and hate-filled speech didn't give Democrats all the excuse they need to 25th Amendment him, what would?

Ben Shapiro cracked me up (thank you) when he said Biden's dark and hate-filled "soul of the nation" speech "sounded better in the original German." Sums it up.

Britain's newest nuclear attack sub will have Australians as part of the crew under the AUKUS sub deal.

South Korea is canceling their CVX light carrier project to focus on North Korea. Blue water ambitions postponed.

Ukraine doesn't have that many HIMARS. But Ukraine does have a lot of dummy launchers to be missile magnets.

Not to sound pro-Russian--I've advocated sending body bags back to Russia since 2014--but I don't understand the outrage of Europeans over Russia halting energy exports. Europe is--rightly--arming and helping Ukraine send those body bags back to Russia.

I'd apologize for a heavier dose of politics this week. But rule of law really does seem like it is being strained to its design limits.

Iranians grabbed two American sea drones in the Red Sea--until the U.S. Navy showed up. We should rig the drones to blow up on command. Or directly sink the Iranian vessels committing piracy on the high seas.

After attempting to seize American sea drones, Iran is ramping up war fears at home.

The Week in Pictures.

The myth of growing income inequality. There has actually been a great leveling of the bottom 60% based largely on government spending. It has long annoyed me that statistics of financial well being always neglect the massive government anti-poverty spending. Which has actually reduced the income inequality by raising up the bottom. Of course, there has been predictable collateral damage for the poorest, too. Tip to Instapundit.

It's bad enough for Russia that Putin made the country a vassal of China. But now the war Putin began with Ukraine has given Iran the upper hand over Russia. Strategery.

The details of the article don't sustain the damning headline about Trump. Trump was contrasting Biden's incapacity to rule with Xi's and Putin's capacity. And he was actually damning of Xi Jinping by saying he basically had to rule harshly to maintain control. That said, Trump should just steer clear of those things given the ability of news bodies to quote individual Trump words out of context in the article writer's sentences. Hell, I cringed when I initially read the headline.

I assumed providing 105mm howitzers to Ukraine indicated they were for airmobile units. But this article--while noting the past airmobile angle here--says they were sent because America is short of 155mm pieces and the production line is shut down. We're not reopening that line? FFS.

Interesting: "Ukrainian special forces are reportedly increasingly able to conduct minor raids across the border into Russia, possibly disrupting Russian logistics and forcing Russian forces to redeploy to secure the border."

At the beginning of the Mar-a-Lago FBI raid, I actually hoped Trump had done something wrong because I'd prefer to think Trump violated a serious law than think our federal law enforcement system has been corrupted for political purposes. While I've seen nothing to undermine the banana republic worry, I actually am open to the possibility that this could change. But after Democrats cried "Trump!" so many times, I'm going to need persuading that this time the wolf was snagged. Despite my long history of not liking Trump, since 2016 the Democrats have acted so much worse.

And Now For Something Completely Different

Rising up, back in the slog. Did my meme, took my chances. Went the distance, now I'm back on my blog. Just a man and his will to contrive. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is a repeat.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

Is America's Definition of "Defeating" China the Same as China's Definition?

The United States will defeat China in a fight for Taiwan despite enduring heavy losses? Please define "defeat".

I think China can invade Taiwan (don't discount the large Chinese coast guard's potential role), with the objective of quickly seizing the capital in the north. The Pescadores Islands would be captured to knock out Taiwanese threats to ships and planes in the Taiwan Strait, provide advanced bases for fire support and logistics, and freeze Taiwanese troops in the south. 

Chinese air and naval assets would attempt to defend lines of supply across the Taiwan Strait and interdict enemy attempts to reinforce the Taiwanese and supply Taiwanese and allied forces on Taiwan.

Unlike many analysts, I assume China would not immediately strike American or Japanese bases. I think China would want to maintain the fiction that Taiwan is an internal matter for as long as it can to complicate foreign reaction and provide excuses for others to remain neutral. 

China, keep in mind, does not need to defeat America to defeat Taiwan. China needs to delay American-led intervention to buy the time needed to defeat Taiwan. If China attacks America or Japan before or while it attacks Taiwan, China makes our decision to intervene for us. Mind you, if China believes American intervention is going to happen fast regardless of what China does, that wrecks my assumption.

And decisive delay could come after America intervenes.

The limit is China's willingness to endure the casualties.

Recent wargames centered around a Chinese invasion of Taiwan showed that while America would suffer heavy losses, after three weeks America would prevail. Prevailing meant:

Throughout the week the game always reaches a stopping point where the players know the likely outcome and, nearly always within the roughly three-week timeframe of simulated combat, it reaches a stalemate on Taiwan between U.S. and Chinese ground forces. ...

By the end of the game, the China team had more than 30 battalions on Taiwan, quite a feat in under three weeks of battle.

But the U.S. was able to cut off the Chinese resupply entirely, leaving thousands of simulated Chinese soldiers foraging for food, low on ammunition and trying to outmaneuver U.S. forces in a cat-and-mouse fight.

One, how much warning time prior to invasion did the wargames assume? It would take some time to secure a sea line of communication, get significant American ground forces to Taiwan, and establish lines of supply. And it would take time just getting troops moving toward Taiwan in case they were ordered to land.

How likely is it that America would begin preparing for a war when all Chinese moves within China would be ambiguous without clear notice of Chinese intent to invade? Plenty of people would insist this was to support Chinese diplomatic pressure. Or that China only wanted something along China's coast or in the South China Sea. The mobilization of that size was only to deter America, they'd argue. There would be plenty of arguments that moving American military assets would itself contribute to risking war. 

Recall that there was a lengthy Russian mobilization starting in 2021 prior to invading Ukraine in 2022, and a lack of American or NATO counter-moves in the east. We should have started moving significant forces just in case. Especially since our models (wrongly) predicted a rapid Russian victory.

There was much uncertainty as to Russia's intention. We endlessly discussed what Putin planned to do with all those troops. Even when America was openly predicting invasion, the world was unpersuaded. It made no sense to invade (I certainly felt Russia could not easily win so would not invade) and there were good arguments why this was just unusually well-supported diplomatic pressure or a prelude to a much smaller attack to grab something. So we did not move significant numbers of troops. 

Which makes me question whether we would do that for Taiwan even though we should take advantage of warning time to do so.

Two, I have my doubts that American logistics would be so robust that American and Taiwanese forces have plenty of ammunition and supplies after three weeks of fighting.

Three, Chinese missiles and aircraft from the mainland could provide a lot of firepower support to PLA forces on Taiwan, lessening the logistics burden of sustaining the Chinese forces on Taiwan.

Four, I have very strong doubts that America could cut off Chinese resupply entirely. Our logistics would sustain that effort?

Five, what happens in week four? Or after? "Stalemate" between U.S. and Chinese ground forces after three weeks means 30+ PLA battalions remain on the island. That's a problem, as I argued in Military Review. If the U.S. really thinks it won the war because the PLA was stalemated short of conquering Taiwan, we are seriously mistaken. Ending the war with stalemate on Taiwan means China has won the war.

Will America really refuse a ceasefire offer when it can't eject the PLA, and instead threaten to isolate and strangle more than three divisions of Chinese troops on the island? When China has nukes? When economic dislocation sends Western economies into recession? Yes, an American blockade of China's sea trade will hurt China, too. I have no idea whose economic pain will be more significant first.

And if we don't try to drive the PLA into the sea, China will have far lower logistics needs if it simply aims to defend its bridgeheads on Taiwan. Are you telling me China can't manage to do that just 100 miles from its shores? While our logistics hold up over much longer distances?

If a ceasefire is agreed to, how do we get the Chinese to leave?

If the Chinese troops aren't ejected with a counteroffensive as soon as possible, eventually the war ends formally with a ceasefire, with a "peace" agreement, or as a "frozen" conflict; and China reinforces their army on Taiwan and starts over in 5 or 10 years. 

Does America keep troops on a new DMZ on Taiwan to deter that? Troops that could face isolation and destruction if China can gain temporary control of the air space and sea around Taiwan. Brush up on the defense of the Bataan Peninsula, please.

Always check the "definitions" section. And make sure "Defeat" includes pushing every PLA soldier on Taiwan into the sea.

NOTE: Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

The Dark Side of Russian Military Power?

Is Putin really going to throw resources at reviving a Russian blue water navy even as his ground forces and air force impale themselves on NATO-backed Ukraine? Is it possible that Putin running into a brick wall in Ukraine has pushed him to abandon hopes of expanding his empire in the west in favor of defending it in the east?

Russia will need more shipyards to carry out Putin's ambitious maritime doctrine.

Russia’s new maritime doctrine signals its intent to challenge the United States and allies on the seas, but there is skepticism about the country’s ability to build a fleet capable of doing that given its limited options for shipyards and weakened supply chains, according to analysts.

Front and center of the new document, published July 31, is the Kremlin’s declaration that the US and NATO are among the “main challenges and threats to national security and sustainable development of the Russian Federation” with respect to the seas. It also indicates Russia will refocus its priorities from the Northern Fleet and North Atlantic to its Pacific Fleet, said Troy Bouffard, director of the Center for Arctic Security and Resilience at the University of Alaska Fairbanks.

Good. Let the naval force flow through you!

Russia's blue water ambitions are self destructive. Russia needs SSBNs for a survivable nuclear deterrent, ships and submarines to defend those SSBNs in bastions off of northwestern and eastern Russia, and a glorified and well armed coast guard.

Otherwise, Russia has long borders on the Arctic Sea, in the west, in the Caucasus, in Central Asia, and in the Far East that need defending with ground and/or air power.

I think we should be happy if Russia builds new aircraft carriers. I salivate at the thought of the army and air force investments that would not be made to put those missile magnets to sea.

Of course, if Russia finally ends its pointless hostility toward the West and instead pivots to face the threats from China, never mind.

If Russia is serious about being a threat to NATO, I welcome Russia's decision to expand its navy.

Still, the idea that America and NATO are the main threats while Russia's Pacific fleet is to be the priority for renewal in this maritime revival is odd, no? If NATO is such a threat as Russia loudly proclaims, how does Russia dare expose its western coasts to NATO attack? 

And does Russia really think it can run the gauntlet of the Japanese navy and air force to reach the Pacific? Throw in the South Koreans, too, plus American power standing in the way.

Sure, you could say the Russia wants to fight at the side of China's naval power in a joint war. But is Russia so much of a Chinese vassal that it will die on China's orders? The story does hint at this problem by noting that Russia seeks to "challenge and compete" with America and other Asian naval powers--including China.

What if Russia's weaknesses exposed in Ukraine have given China second thoughts about confronting the West over Taiwan? What if China has decided Russia is the easier target? What if Russia really worries about Chinese naval power despite the supposed closeness of these so-called allies?

What if the Russians figure the last time they needed to move their western naval power east it ended in disaster? What if Russia wants the Pacific Fleet ready for war from day one to avoid defeat by China. If so, naturally the Northern Fleet is downgraded.

And perhaps the shipbuilding problems highlighted are a red herring designed to hide the fact that Russia is building up ships to defend its Far East coasts from China and not preparing to build a blue water fleet to fight past Japan and into the Pacific to battle America.

Is this the last gasp of Russia pretending that NATO is the main threat while appeasing China? I'm relying on a lot of speculation, I know. And it wouldn't be the first time Putin has confounded my attempts to assess what "makes sense" for Russia to do to defend its interests. But if I'm close to correct, time is running out for Russia to make that pivot to Asia.

NOTE: Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.