Weekend Data Dump

I don't draw comfort from Russia's firing of top commanders. Eventually they may get competent ones. I'd rather Russia stuck with the officers who got them this far. Losses in combat are another thing altogether, of course.

Prosperity is a very effective birth control.

Can God restore Russian troop morale?

Instapundit celebrated its 21st birthday last week. Congratulations! It's long been a regular stop for me.

Indeed: "A pivotal issue in Ukraine’s defense is the West’s—and the U.S.’ in particular—ability to provide weapons and ammunition swiftly enough to defeat Russia." Even if the West can barely sustain Ukraine's war, what does it say about supplying a big war?

Ukrainian resistance in the Russian-occupied south seems to be getting more organized. 

Suddenly it is possible to steal an election. Let's see. 2016? Stolen. 2020? Totally clean, you nutballs! 2022 and 2024? Potentially stolen. Odd that it is only possible when a Democrat is president. 

I'm seeing more stuff on the Army's new light tank--excuse me, Mobile Protected Firepower. I'm against them. The longer it has been since major tank losses the more the urge to lighten up the armor. Once at war, the light tanks die and aren't replaced. Or missed. Except by the enemy.

America is subcontracting its nuclear diplomacy with Iran to the European Union? That doesn't seem wise if the purpose is a good deal rather than any deal.

I remember when this would have been a presidential lie designed to inflate the liar's record. Now it's just going "well beyond" the facts.

Flight cancellations--1,000 over the weekend (via Instapundit). But keep in mind that the FAA handles 45,000 flights per day in America. So 1.1%. I'm not saying Biden and the government in general haven't made air travel worse. But perspective.

American troops in India for high-altitude training kind of sort of "near" the Chinese border. I'm about 40 miles from Canada. I don't think I'm "near" Canada.

The European Union is requesting member states to reduce natural gas use by 15% to make it through the winter.

Russia's new maritime strategy to challenge the U.S. Navy globally. You go, girl! Spoiler alert: it's the usual Russian bravado. Russia needs a maritime strategy for its ships to survive more than 10 miles from home port. Who needs enemies to undermine Russian security when Russia has Putin?

If the West could clamp down on vital parts for Russian weapons and military equipment, it would have a major impact on Russia's ability to fight their war on Ukraine. Increase the pain.

Another round of American weapons, equipment, and ammunition for Ukraine. Hey, bleeding ulcers don't bleed by themselves, you know.

Our teacher union-government complex has destroyed the lives of many children. Lowering standards out of "compassion" was ultimately cruel to the children and to society which must now cope with their lost years. Screw the teacher unions. Tip to Instapundit.

Russia may be using the crap volunteer units to free up regular units for the front--provoking more numerous and more effective resistance from the locals and whatever Ukraine sends to help, eh?

Will economic unrest lead to revolt? Or will the love of their life save the mullahs? Unrest and revolt might be bigger than that (via Instapundit).

That's how they both roll: "Israel kept Gaza under constant aerial surveillance and captured video of the rockets being launched from populated areas, including Mosques, schools and residential buildings. The Israeli air strikes destroyed those structures, after warning (usually by cellphone) civilians to get out."

China goes to space and Russia drops out. 

That doesn't look Third Worldy banana republic at all! Is rule of law dying before our eyes? The FBI launched the armed raid to recover documents Trump has had for 19 months because he might destroy them? Jesus, I want Trump to be guilty of something major rather than have to accept that this kind of storm trooper political persecution is real. No Democrat will ever get my vote. Ever.

All missile defense. Good.

At the moment, Xi Jinping has no interest in war with America.

Explosions at Russian airbase in occupied Crimea.

Ethiopia kills invading jihadis.

China pretends the South China Sea is a city.

I'm seeing more people wearing masks lately. Even alone in a convertible.

Putin's war on Ukraine has pushed Russia into vassal status under China. Well, yes.

The A-10 can be a loitering bomb truck that the stealthy F-35 detects targets for.

The U.S. is focused on supplying rockets for Ukraine's HIMARS rather than adding more HIMARS.

The Chinese military is built to defeat America in a war over Taiwan? Not quite. It is focused on defeating Taiwan. China just needs to delay America long enough to defeat Taiwan.

If our logistics are this bad, Taiwan is screwed: "To even seriously contemplate fighting a war with China over Taiwan, the United States would likely require three months at the absolute earliest once war broke out." That's probably too pessimistic. But if true, our forward-deployed forces are just targets and should be pulled back.

General Milley should resign. I will note he's fine with court martial and prison. He should not be the last. I used to respect him. Don't forget to vote.

The United States has sent Ukraine air-to-ground missiles designed to hit Russian radars.

Good guys with guns.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine is pushing more countries to buy F-35s. I do worry about software vulnerability.

Break the FBI up for parts. If there are so few foreign threats to deal with inside America, we don't need it keeping busy being the Democrats' secret police. Elections matter, people.

Between a restive population unhappy with Lukashenko and being yoked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the Belarus economy is hurting.

Ukrainians are saying that the strike at Russia's Crimean airbase signals the start of the southern counteroffensive. Okay. I'll believe it when I see it.

Iran allies with Russia. Now they get to argue who is the senior member of the Axis of Evil. I'd read this before: "Russia has previously tried to limit Iranian influence in Syria but is now enabling its expansion." Just a reminder that Russia "helped" get the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. Which sucked.

I'll put this out there even though I think it is silly to call Afghanistan unwinnable. Define your victory well below creating "Vermont without bike paths" and we could have won that war. We certainly didn't have to lose it when our cost was money to keep Afghan security fighting jihadis (and  they were dying every day doing that).

"Europe" doesn't need a leader. European nations need leaders in each one. And saying "Europe" needs a leader is to confuse the existing geographic Europe with the aspiration for a political proto-imperial Europe that can finally chuck the prefix.

I suppose this is a problem you might expect when you send regular Army troops to conduct training at the end of the world that highly trained and experienced special forces used to do. Security Force Assistance Brigades were established to free special forces for direct combat missions in the war on terror. Will those brigades be scaled back now that terror-related missions are scaled back?

A lot of speculation about explosions "near" an airfield: "Several explosions have been reported in an area of Belarus near a military airport that Ukrainian authorities say has been used by the Russian Air Force to attack Ukrainian territory." "Near" the airfield and not "at" the location. Until more is known I'll say not Ukrainian military action.

Western countries promised more aid for Ukraine.

Interesting discussion of military issues from the Russian perspective.

India's efforts around India to counter China's belt and road project.

A fire at military housing near Moscow. Sometimes a fire is just a fire, eh? Ukraine would be happy if the Russians thought every accident is Ukrainian direct action.

China's economic problems. This time, for sure? I worry that if true it might provoke aggression abroad. But I worry more about a thriving China doing the same thing when ready.

Good: "The current war in Ukraine has revealed serious shortcomings in Russian military capabilities and now China has to determine if it suffers from the same delusions that Russia was operating under." I've worried about that.

I think corruption means Mozambique will suffer from the twin curses of natural gas money and jihadis. 

If true, why wait 18 months before the Trump raid; and why not change the codes 18 months ago? Shouldn't the Justice Department be prosecuting Biden officials who let this supposed nuclear danger linger on all this time? Jesus, try to be close to plausible to those who don't watch MSNBC. Tip to Instapundit.

Was Xi Jinping's harsh response to Pelosi's visit to Taiwan an indication that he is moving toward nationalism in place of economic growth as the pillar of his legitimacy? Uh oh.

I have no idea if China can defeat Taiwan if it invades Taiwan. But I do want to define what "defeat" means.

Is Russia looking abroad to replace weapons losses?

Writer Salman Rushdie, sentenced to die via devout Moslem volunteer executioner by Iran's Shia variety of jihadi nutballs more than thirty years ago, was stabbed while on stage. I don't even like Rushdie. But fuck all Islamists. Rational Moslems need to win their civil war.

The awful 2015 Iran nuclear deal actually let Iran deny it ever pursued nuclear weapons. The European Union is working to memory hole 2019 physical evidence of such a program. Remember, the EU doesn't care about the results. It just wants to author a deal.

Biden said we had zero inflation in July. Which if the number holds is true. Except that we calculate inflation on a yearly basis. So his boast is misleading. Obviously, if he was a Republican the media would call it a "lie." The annual inflation rate certainly dipped a bit because of one good month. But call me when July is largely repeated month after month going forward.

Iraq wants French Rafale fighters. Given Iraq's inability to maintain its F-16s, I assume this is about corrupt Iraqis seeking bribes.

Western countries have sent the precision American-Swedish Excalibur 155mm rounds to Ukraine. These are much more expensive than the usual precision kits added to standard rounds.

The Week in Pictures.

The U.S. government told its employees to shelter in place in Tijuana. Tip to Instapundit.

Dangerous corruption.

I'd like Republicans to move on from Trump. He will be fairly old by 2024. But as they have done since 2016, spittle-flecked Democrats are making Trump look much better by comparison, and deserving of another chance.

Why is Thailand--a longstanding American ally--hosting Chinese warplanes for exercises? A closer look? Going wobbly?

And Now For Something Completely Different

They call me quiet. But I'm a riot. The Dignified Rant. Always the theme. That's not my meme. That's not my meme. That's not my meme. That's not my meme.

 

 

  

 

 

  

 

 

 

  

 

  

Dying For Their Leader

If I was Putin I'd absolutely pay for 100,000 North Korean "volunteers" to fight Ukraine.

Sure, North Korea could never send and supply 100,000 troops in formed units to fight Ukraine:

Climbing Russian casualties and reports suggesting that Russia is now looking to North Korea to aid its flagging troops raised eyebrows this week as some began to question whether Moscow would drag Pyongyang into its war in Ukraine.

Russia expert and former intelligence officer in Russian doctrine and strategy for the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), Rebekah Koffler, threw cold water on these claims and said they were "implausible." ...

"Putin will never accept — it’s implausible," she said. "Just think about the sheer scale of it."

 Apart from the fact that Russia and North Korea have not held joint combat training and Pyongyang hasn’t even seen active combat in decades, the logistics of such an alliance would prove tricky.

But 100,000 "volunteers" to plug into Russian units would be little different than 100,000 other foreigners who can't speak Russian. Why would North Koreans be less welcome than non-ethnic Russians being recruited and Syrians being recruited? 

I mean, Russia is scouring its prisons for bodies:

As Russia continues to suffer losses in its invasion of Ukraine, now nearing its sixth month, the Kremlin has refused to announce a full-blown mobilization — a move that could be very unpopular for President Vladimir Putin. That has led instead to a covert recruitment effort that includes using prisoners to make up the manpower shortage.

Cannon fodder needs to do little more than run forward in the direction their officer points.

And because he can't afford the money for his huge military, Kim Jong-Un would be happy if all 100,000 died in combat:

But the North Korean government can hardly afford to demobilize the army to save the money. Could North Korea really afford to abandon what is a large slave labor force that has young men with military training? Better to have a foe inside the tent peeing out than outside the tent peeing in, as the expression goes.

But what if the North Korean regime assumes that the destruction of their army in a futile war is the objective? What if Kim Jong-Un decides that America and our allies would do him a favor by destroying his army while hoping that the survivors and their relatives blame America?

After their paychecks made out to Kim Jong-Un clear, of course. 

Kim gets 100,000 fewer mouths to feed, 100,000 fewer potential rebels, a lovely statue celebrating the dead heroes fighting their enemies, and money.

I wouldn't rule this out.

UPDATE: Friends in need:

Russian President Vladimir Putin sent a letter to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un on Monday, promising to expand cooperation between the two countries despite being increasingly ostracized on the world stage.

Not all the 100,000 would even need to be seconded soldiers. North Korea could send tens of thousands of workers--for pay that mostly goes to the North Korean government--to replace Russian subjects sent to war.

Not predicting. But this makes sense.

UPDATE: Be careful what you wish for:

The head of Russian proxy forces in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region has sent a message to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un calling for cooperation amid signs the North is considering sending laborers for restoration projects in Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine.

Every North Korean sent to one of the Donbas puppet regions frees up one resident of those so-called republics to be drafted and sent to the front.

NOTE: My most recent war coverage continues here.

The Jihadi Terrorists are Still Out There

America's war on terror has indeed knocked back jihadi terrorism targeting the West. But it is still out there. Including in Afghanistan where we abandoned our ability to suppress a terror sanctuary there. The war on terror is not over despite great power competition emphasis.

Killing the leader of al Qaeda terrorists in Kabul is a good reminder that the war on terror continues. I worried that the Afghanistan skedaddle debacle would cripple our ability to kill jihadis. We're still trying, at least.

America doesn't need the intensity of efforts that the counter-insurgency campaigns in Afghanistan and Iraq required. That represents success. But we still need to fight terrorists:

Matthew Levitt frames this overview of counterterrorism policy by observing that the current focus on Great Power and near power competition as US national security priorities reflects the success of Washington’s investment in counterterrorism and homeland security. However, the current environment of growing partisan polarization also reflects the need to rationalize US investment in counterterrorism and adopt a more sustainable posture on the counterterrorism mission.

I've pondered the same thing, calling what might be called "guard duty" the "Global Troubles":

I've long said that our war on terror is a holding action to prevent collateral damage from the Islamic Civil War from hurting Americans at home. In many ways we've done that and paid the price to achieve it.

While there are still military tasks to be done in the fight against jihadis, America and the West need different tools from those that dominated in the decade after 9/11 to finally defeat the Islamo-fascists that wish to kill and define all of Islam as an expression of that will to kill.

We are in the age of the Global Troubles now.

This is not a declaration of Mission Accomplished. Much like that 2001 sentiment actually was a declaration of  one mission accomplished rather than of final victory, we accomplished our initial post-9/11 mission of breaking the back of international terrorism and the states that supported them.

If we keep working on this problem, even the Global Troubles will one day finally fade. 

Levitt frames the issue this way:

Leaders in both the Democratic and Republican Parties also stress the need to end “forever wars,” focus counterterrorism resources on protecting the U.S. homeland, and rely on foreign partners to take the lead—with U.S. support—on addressing terrorism in their neighborhoods. The terrorist threats facing the United States are more dispersed today than they were on September 11, 2001, but there is now general agreement on the need to adopt a more sustainable posture on the counterterrorism mission.

And yeah, great powers use terrorism. So focus on great power competition doesn't mean terrorism can be downplayed too much even if jihadi threats are eliminated.

This is reasonable. All it really needs in the area of undermining the spawning of Islamist terrorists and their ideology is the recognition that the Islamic world needs to win its civil war about who--jihadis or normals--represent Islam.

UPDATE: Case in point: "Four al-Shabab militants are presumed dead after a series of airstrikes launched by U.S. forces in Somalia, U.S. Africa Command announced Wednesday." And so four more presumed good jihadis.

NOTE: My most recent war coverage continues here.

Is ACME Atomics Headquartered in Russia?

Should the West worry about Russia's growing nuclear capabilities and threats to use nukes?

So this is out there:

We live in interesting times. In support of the most blatant aggression since World War II, we have heard since November 2021 Russian high level nuclear war threats every week or two. Indeed, the probability of Russian use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine is under active debate....

NATO’s June 2022 new strategic concept states, “The Russian Federation is modernizing its nuclear forces and expanding its novel and disruptive dual-capable delivery systems, while employing coercive nuclear signalling.”

I always worry about nukes. The big booms that keep on giving.

But should we get too worked up over Russian nuclear threats?

Keep in mind that Russia has a history of nuclear bluffs.

On top of lots of posturing about super weapons. FFS people, Russia needs Iranian-designed drones.

Winning.

Yet who can blame Russia for bluffing when their need for something to make up for their inadequate conventional forces trying to defend a huge border?

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has certainly exposed the flaws that should have been evident all along. And yet we are to believe that the problems exposed in Russia's conventional arsenal do not reflect Russia's nuclear arsenal?

Huh.

If Russia has a Potemkin nuclear arsenal, playing the calm statesman as Putin did early in the month does have some value in between rattling nuclear sabres:

There can be no winners in a nuclear war and such a war should never be started, Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a statement released by the Kremlin on Monday.

Mind you, only some of Russia's nukes have to work to be a problem for America. And China has them. And others with higher nutball factors have or are trying to get them. Worry about nukes and work to have a good enough nuclear arsenal to deter others from using them.

But don't let Russia get away with murder because they beat their chest and fling nuclear poo. 

NOTE: My most recent war coverage continues here.

Maintain the Pain

Russia is hurting under sanctions. Don't abandon this weapon in the false belief that sanctions are futile or counter-productive.

I want this to be true:

Five months into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there remains a startling lack of understanding by many Western policymakers and commentators of the economic dimensions of President Vladimir Putin’s invasion and what it has meant for Russia’s economic positioning both domestically and globally.

Far from being ineffective or disappointing, as many have argued, international sanctions and voluntary business retreats have exerted a devastating effect over Russia’s economy. The deteriorating economy has served as a powerful if underappreciated complement to the deteriorating political landscape facing Putin.

The authors go over the areas in which Russia is hurting but which Westerners don't perceive from lack of information and Russian disinformation that have created myths that Russia is doing just fine economically and financially:

First, Russia can't easily replace European natural gas customers with Asian customers.

Second, the situation with oil exports to Europe is similar.

Third, Russia is not replacing Western business ties and imports with Asian partners.

Fourth, Russia's consumers and domestic economy is faltering.

Fifth, Russia has suffered a brain and investment drain.

Sixth, Russia is running on deficit spending.

Seventh, Russia's "rainy day" reserve funds are under stress and inadequate.

Eighth, the ruble's strength is a Potemkin Village that provides no advantage to Russia.

Ninth, there is room for more sanctions to do more harm to Russia's economy.

The authors conclude:

Defeatist headlines arguing that Russia’s economy has bounced back are simply not factual—the facts are that, by any metric and on any level, the Russian economy is reeling, and now is not the time to step on the brakes.

I was skeptical of sanctions alone working as an alternative to military action to change the actions of a target nation before Russia invaded Ukraine this year. 

Although Russia is now at war and sanctioned. So my qualification is met. And the Russians have incentive to lie in order to convince Westerners to give up sanctions.

Don't let the Russian firehose of falsehoods convince us that we hurt ourselves more than we hurt Russia.

NOTE: My most recent war coverage continues here.

The Winter War of 2022: Why Won't You Just Die?

How quickly will Democratic resolve to defeat Russia's invasion of Ukraine evaporate now that the word is out through media stenographers that the Biden administration isn't happy with Zelensky and doesn't trust him?

Russia's offensive in the Donbas is sputtering and narrow; Ukraine's telegraphed southern counteroffensive has yet to fully develop, giving time for Russia to shift troops to that front. Western logistics and intelligence support give Ukraine an advantage in a longer war. But the West needs to provide that support for the duration. Is this situation unacceptable to America? Does America prefer the war to be over soon regardless of the outcome?

Why is the White House quietly griping about Zelensky now (tip to Instapundit)?

Joe Biden now finds himself in a proxy war with Russia, and he never wanted to be in one. Before Russia invaded, he let slip that a “minor incursion” might not trigger a full U.S. or NATO response. Biden sees the mounting consequences of the Russian invasion – higher energy and food prices, a global famine, a potential cold winter for western Europe – and probably just wants to get out of this mess; if Ukraine has to make some territorial concessions, well, the U.S. was never that interested in who controlled the Donbas region anyway.

That's easy enough to answer, eh? Biden's people are trying to throw Ukraine--via Zelensky--under the bus. 

I think the White House assumed Russia would have won by now. I think the White House hoped to get credit for supplying a valiant but doomed Ukraine. 

I think Biden's people want to cut and run just as they did in Afghanistan because they have more important things to do--like spending money we don't have at home. A few billion dollars worth of Javelin missiles to bolster Joe's poll numbers and then we'd get Reset 2.0 with Russia and a glorious green energy revolution! 

Can you say Nobel Peace Prize?

And it isn't like Biden is the only Westerner looking for excuses to throw Ukraine under the bus tank. Indeed, I'm horrified that there are Republicans who think we should abandon Ukraine to the Russians! Russia's bluster despite its poor performance on the battlefield convinces many that it is futile to resist Russia. Don't fall for that bluff. Russia lies. A lot.

I've said Ukraine has a lot riding on their looming counter-offensive. The Ukrainians really do need a sense of urgency to build on the slight tilt they've achieved on the battlefield. It seems that it is not only important to inflict a battlefield defeat on Russia's ground forces for its effect on Russia. A victory may also be needed to shame the American government--and other Western states--into not abandoning Ukraine when it is inconvenient to their domestic political needs.

There's a reason America's resolute response to Russia's invasion surprised me. Being resolute probably wasn't what the administration intended.  

UPDATE: This author thinks Ukraine needs serial "miracles" to defeat Russia on the Kherson front. The Ukrainians have a huge job to pull this off, but I don't think God needs to intervene. 

Russian air power has under-performed and may be nullified sufficiently; precision Ukrainian artillery may nullify Russia's numerical artillery advantage sufficiently; and Ukraine may be able to build and defend supply lines across the Dnieper to push deeper. 

Big challenges. But Russia faces morale, equipment, and supply problems. Still, he is right that thus far the big offensive is "ink deep".

UPDATE: This occurred to me early:

Note that a Ukrainian drive from Zaporozhzhia down to Melitopol would unhinge Russian positions in Kherson province.

But I worried that it would expose two flanks open to Russian counterattacks from east and west. 

On the other hand, if Ukraine pushes Russians to the Dneipr River on the Kherson front and can't mount a river crossing, a drive toward Melitopol from the north might be a better second stage. 

UPDATE (Tuesday): What is going on around Izyum?

NOTE: ISW updates continue here.

Weekend Data Dump

South Korea enters space. This is part of the effort to build the firepower to knock out North Korean artillery threatening Seoul. I have my doubts about that plan.

The U.S. is trying to help Russians bypass Russian censorship of news about Putin's invasion of Ukraine. There is great need.

The U.S. moved military assets "closer" to Taiwan for Pelosi's visit; China announced military exercises near Taiwan (for Pelosi's visit).

So the Russians slaughtered some Ukrainian POWs. Such nice people.

The first ship with Ukrainian grain set sail under the grain truce. Will Russia undermine this? perhaps placing naval mines to blame on Ukraine?

Threats of street violence in Iraq over political deadlock and Iranian influence.

Germany's foreign policy is in flux. Russia is clearly a threat. Yet Germany has a troubling early 20th century history. My view is that the EU needs Germany if the proto-imperial EU is to remove the prefix. Yet to avoid being the EU's oxen, Germany needs to remain in America-dominated NATO. Which also allows Germany to avoid rearming so much that the Germans get a whiff of panzers--and like it (their view). Which means Germany can't really embrace the EU. What will the Germans do?

Awarding the Global War on Terrorism medal will be scaled back "sharply".

The Army will thin out its 31 brigades in the hope that recruiting shortfalls are a transitory problem.

I assume American military facilities on Crete will be more important going forward.

Ukraine is hitting Russian air defenses with HIMARS, which will help Ukraine if America provides F-16s. I wish our Air Force appreciated that artillery role.

Meanwhile in Kosovo. I wonder if Russia is stirring things up there.

Russia will be hurt by denying energy to Europe because other countries drive hard bargains to buy it.

There is a lot of talk about Ukraine's Kherson counteroffensive--but little movement on the ground. Where are the Ukrainian troops for a counteroffensive? Too early to see that evidence? Or is this a diversion? I'm flummoxed given I've long thought Kherson was a key front for Ukraine to liberate. Eventually the troops have to retake territory for this to be real.

From the Well, Duh files: "The E.U. does not just face crises. It seems to be defined by them. In a way, it welcomes crises." In a way! LOL. So welcome that solving the crises aren't the priority, eh?

Oh? "[The] Russians have correctly identified Germany as the linchpin and engine of the EU. Hence, they have invested a great deal of resources, time and effort in order to pull Germany from the geopolitical orbit of the US." Hence? Pulling Germany out of NATO--where America dominates--is a requirement to push Germany into full EU engagement--not hinder that. If the Russians actually believe this, they are morons. More likely the author is just shilling for the EU by pretending NATO and the EU are complementary natural allies. They are natural opponents.

Good! "A CIA drone strike has killed al-Qaida leader Ayman al-Zawahri in Afghanistan, according to five people familiar with the matter." Although one good over-the-horizon strike is no way to mow the jihadi grass and recover from our defeat.

Early in the week, Russia was moving troops from the Donbas to hold Kherson and Zaporizhia to the east. What is Ukraine up to? Is the Kherson offensive too late to exploit Russian preoccupation with the Donbas? How is it possible that Ukraine could counter-attack all across the southern front with no main effort? Won't that dissipate combat power the way Russia did in the initial invasion? I'm lost about what Ukraine's target is now. Kherson made sense since forever. Now I'm having small doubts. Although perhaps it really is taking all this time to gather forces for the Kherson counteroffensive. Perhaps it is that simple.

Remember when Democrats and their media allies were upset Trump killed Iranian terror master Soleimani? Biden kills Zawahiri and there is a sound of crickets--plus an explainer of why we did it.

GIGO: rigging the data. Tip to Instapundit.

So ... "Monkeypox" is now a problematic name? I suggest "Sphincterpox". Or perhaps "Uranuspox". You're welcome.

Is it "true" communism yet?

Russia accuses the US of approving Ukrainian HIMARS targets. The spokesmoron has a point. America should let Ukrainians strike any target they want--even inside Russia.

"Closing tax loopholes" is raising taxes. "Loophole" just means something Congress deliberately decided should be taxed less than other things.

The sorry state of Russia's reserve tanks. Also, Ukraine holds that tanks are not in fact the best anti-tank weapons. And by May Russia's ground forces suffered 100,000 casualties! That's killed, wounded, captured, or deserted. The stealth mobilization is trying to put together units with duct tape.

Killing Zawahiri kind of implies America had an interest in staying in Afghanistan to fight terrorists, doesn't it?

One American big deck carrier and a F-35B-equipped amphibious warfare carrier were deployed near Taiwan for Pelosi's visit.

I voted this week. Twice! Well, I messed up the ballot the first time. I was really only interested in voting for the bus system. It's a basic function of government. I was torn between casting a protest vote on the Democratic side or voting for Republicans however meaningless it is at the local level. And I forgot this was a choice and did both. For primary contests. Doh. Never had to re-vote before. Luckily hardly anybody there. Although a hole in the process is that the poll workers could theoretically have seen my spoiled secret ballot as they threw it away.

The idea that Ukrainian ships exporting food need to be inspected for weapons is ridiculous. In what alternate world is Ukraine under attack sending weapons away?

Excellent observation: "'Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again,' the adage goes, 'and expecting different results.' How else to describe the effort of France’s President Emmanuel Macron to end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine by constantly seeking to reengage with Russia’s dictator Vladimir Putin?" We might want to ask what Macron is smoking. Deep down the French elites think America is a bigger threat to French glory than Russia is. Maybe not that deep, actually.

Very odd, is it not? We seem to have a deadline for getting humanity off of this planet. Tip to Instapundit.

Corruption makes the Philippines vulnerable to Chinese aggression.

Even as Russia is humiliated on the battlefield, it claims Greater Russia territory beyond Ukraine, including "portions of Poland, the Baltic States, Finland and parts of Alaska." A-holes. A-holes with nukes.

A Fox host was not saying al Qaeda felt good about our killing Zawahiri, as David Edwards' article claims. The Fox host was saying that given where Zawahiri was--right in an upscale part of Kabul--al Qaeda must feel pretty good to be so obviously welcome inside Afghanistan under Taliban rule. Big difference. And journalists wonder why we despise their profession.

Killing Zawahiri was more retribution than prevention? Who the ef cares? He's a terrorist. We killed him. Now he's a good terrorist. This is why God gave us JDAMs (or any precision weapon, of course). Some people give nuance a bad name. There are still many reasons out there for why America has JDAMs.

FFS. These "journalists" actually think they are saving us from "fake news." Tip to Instapundit.

Forces and forms of destabilization of America, European Union countries, Russia, and China.

We may be too stupid to survive as a species. Tip to Treacher.

Via Intapundit, is a Russian hunter-killer satellite stalking an American spy bird? Let's hope the X-37 (now under Space Force) has been even more busy.

How early did humans arrive in the New World? Of course, how sure are the scientists that they have evidence of butchering rather than erosion? Via Instapundit.

Gosh! Why don't Americans trust what these lying a-holes report?

Iran's hand puppets in Iraq may attack Americans in the chaos the Iranians stoke. And have I mentioned I don't trust Moqtada al-Sadr? Heads Iran wins and tails America loses. I'm not happy. Unless I'm way wrong about today's Sadr. We need to defeat Iran in Iraq.

South Korea joins the fighter-building club.

Ukraine's superior logistics support. As long as the West provides it, Russia's GDP advantage over Ukraine is not decisive.

Our fleet is suffering from our mistaken belief that projecting power ashore from safe positions in the littorals rather than sea control in blue waters was its future mission.

Despite Russia's shifting of forces to the southern front, Russia continues to attack in the east--with few positive results.

The United States Senate added America's approval to Sweden and Finland joining NATO. All NATO countries must approve.

Third Fleet as an operational headquarters rather than a supporting organization preparing forces for the western Pacific.

Ukraine continues to strike Russian supply lines to the Kherson front.

The Indonesian, American, and other militaries are exercising together in Indonesia.

I would very much like to recover those oddly missing Pentagon texts from January 6, 2021. There is no way they are gone as a favor to Trump.

Would a military fitness app for civilians increase interest in enlisting?

Our always-on-the-job State Department says the Taliban violated the Doha Agreement by letting Zawahiri live in Kabul. I guess we're letting that whole conquering Afghanistan thing slide. 

Let's worry about helping Ukraine defeat Russia now before we get too caught up working on long-term weapons and logistics issues. Also, perhaps refrain from judging Ukraine's counteroffensive until we see it happen. Cart. Horse.

The idea that Pelosi should not have visited Taiwan rests on the ridiculous notion that Taiwan can survive if it somehow avoids making eye contact with their crazy stalker China. Why are some conservatives taking up what in the past was a liberal way of thinking?

Remember, to keep their lights on and homes heated in the winter the Europeans trusted Greens and Russia. I think sophistication and nuance are overrated.

The Indiana Army National Guard demonstrates what it means for the Guard to be an operational reserve.

Tell me that the continuing baby formula shortage wouldn't have spawned 24/7 "they're killing babies" media coverage if a Republican was president.

Russia may be forming a reserve that may be committed to an offensive or to preempting Ukrainian counter-attacks. Or it could just be a reserve to hold the line.

Democrats and the media to send in bombshell disposal team to keep Joe Biden safe. Tip to Instapundit.

The multi-war in Syria rumbles along. I assume Russia is too busy to try to push Iran out these days. 

The Navy's new SPY-6V1 version of its Aegis surveillance and combat radar.

Sending signals around Taiwan.

Democratic "sanctuary cities": "Give us your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free… Just not, y’know, here."

Can Ukraine mount a counteroffensive on the Kherson front while sustaining serious counter-attacks around Izyum to force a dilemma on Russian force deployment decisions?

This is a useful analysis of the Winter War of 2022 (although I am mystified that the Iraq War can be considered a "debacle"--yet we still must defend the win).

The Dutch farmers have revolted. Never mind looming famine, I guess. Anyone who likes to eat should support them. Tip to Instapundit.

In other news, Hamas will ruin Gaza for the chance to kill a few more Jews. 

We know Russia didn't start their invasion of Ukraine trying to exhaust their enemies. Can Russia really win a protracted war of attrition now? My view is that Russian boasts are meant to convince the West that Russia isn't in a world of hurt.

So what was his motivation for (allegedly) bombing his own people with a grenade-sized blast?

Russia is desperate to avoid infantry casualties and desperate to avoid letting the public know how many Russian troops have died. 

Love us. Or we'll kill you.

China cut off certain defense lines of communication with America, following Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. That sounds somewhat ominous.

LOL:

Could the Navy defeat a Chinese invasion attempt against Taiwan? Maybe. But the Army might be needed, as I argued in Military Review.

The accusation that Ukraine is fighting behind human shields falls apart when you consider that Russia seeks to kill civilians rather than being deterred from firing by the presence of civilians.

Israel is going after the Iran-backed Islamic Jihad terror group in Gaza.

One problem with returning the abortion issue to the states is that it simply turns national battle lines from the federal government to 50 smaller nationally funded battles in the states. Which isn't quite federalism. But an improvement.

More grain ships leave Ukraine. Did Russia agree to use the shipments as a human shield to protect their Kherson front? Will Russia halt shipments if Ukraine starts to really push a counteroffensive?

Anti-Semitic socialism in France. Who knew socialism at the national level could think that way?

Is this real? Honestly, Kim Jong-Un would be happy if all 100,000 died in Ukraine. Get paid for them and get potential troublemakers and actual mouths to feed killed.

Making the people who back the policy feel a fraction of the pain and expense of the policy is the plan.

And Now For Something Completely Different

We're only young and naive still. We require certain skills. The meme it changes like the wind. Hard to control when it begins.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Common Ground for America and Russia

America and Russia have a common interest in a strong NATO that keeps the proto-imperial European Union from getting rid of the prefix and becoming a threat to Russia and America. A strong NATO will free both to face China, which is the biggest threat to each of us. 

 

Putin has wrecked American-Russian relations by pointlessly invading Ukraine. But there is a basis for repairing relations after Russia is defeated in this war.

America has a long history of opposing a single hostile entity from controlling Europe. World War I, World War II, and the Cold War prevented that threat from arising. Russia has a long history of pushing west in Europe to keep a hostile entity from conquering Russia.

I've said the Russians are paranoid self-destructive nuts for thinking that NATO is a modern-day threat. But is America any different if it worries about Europe under hostile ownership?

Yes. America isn't ignoring a real threat while pretending a non-threat is the main worry the way Russia is doing. America has been shifting power and emphasis from Europe to Asia for more than thirty years to cope with China. Oddly, America is formally pro-European Union. The best you can say is that China is a pressing threat while the proto-imperial EU is a future theoretical threat not worth resisting until it is clear that Europeans won't defeat its effort to remove the prefix. Brexit was a good start.

Russia in contrast screams about a threat from NATO and from America in particular:

President Vladimir Putin on Sunday signed a new naval doctrine which cast the United States as Russia's main rival and set out Russia's global maritime ambitions for crucial areas such as the Arctic and in the Black Sea.

I'm thinking Putin fell off those horses he likes to ride and hit his head one too many times. You build that blue water fleet, Vlad! As long as you insist NATO is your enemy every ruble spent on that is one fewer for your army and air force.

Putin can say all that while denying there is a threat from the east to Russia's Far East. There is a threat from the east. Perhaps an imminent threat.

Operating on old thinking, Russia thinks it would benefit from a politically unified Europe to eject America--the bigger military power--from Europe. The Russians just aren't thinking of the next steps that lead to a united Europe that isn't as committed to democracy as it has been under American influence since 1945.

Russia should justifiably worry about a threat from the west if the EU becomes the empire it aspires to be.

To prevent that EU threat, America should be a de facto ally, notwithstanding Russian paranoia and American wishful thinking about the EU.

China is a looming threat to Russia that Putin has risked making far worse by invading Ukraine. A united Europe under the EU flag is a potential additional threat to Russia that will reduce Russia's ability to block China.

Europe won't be a potential threat to Russia as a multi-nation Europe that is united only under American leadership in NATO. Which requires Russia to accept NATO as the least of Russia's defense problems in order to face the looming threat from China. America can help in Russia's west and east. Russia should seize that opportunity. Perhaps failure in Ukraine will be the clue bat to finally gives Russia a moment of clarity.

NOTE: My most recent war coverage continues here.

Is Russia the Real Target of a Chinese Attack on Taiwan?

Is China determined to do something militarily in response to Speaker Pelosi's visit to Taiwan? Would this exploit the West's focus on defending Ukraine to grab some territory deemed vital to China? And demonstrate to the world that China is the dominant state in the China-Russia "partnership?"

China's military exercises "in response to" Pelosi's visit to Taiwan may virtually surround Taiwan:

Experts raised alarms over the exercise, with some noting that the drills would overlap with Taiwan’s territorial waters. M. Taylor Fravel, director of the MIT Security Studies Program, said the drills appear to be “unprecedented,” noting that they would be “the largest number of exercises to be conducted very close to the island of Taiwan itself, and the first to take place on all sides surrounding Taiwan.

Which might come in very handy for a small military response that pulls Taiwan's tiny Pratas Island into China's embrace, as I've observed is an option:

China has considered taking tiny and vulnerable Pratas Island from Taiwan. This makes sense as a graduation exercise for China's military that signals to the world that China has begun the roll back of what the Chinese Communist Party calls their Century of Humiliation.

Wouldn't that be a concrete reversal of China's claim that Pelosi is essentially prying Taiwan away from China's inevitable "reunification" with Taiwan? As I noted, the conquest could be over quickly. Which gives America a ready excuse to do nothing but complain in the immediate aftermath.

And wouldn't that rub Putin's nose in his stumbling invasion of Ukraine that has exposed Russia's military as being far weaker than claimed? Which would--if rapidly successful--show that China is a superior military power and clearly lay claim to being the dominant power and Russia clearly the client state?

Or maybe these purported PLA troop movements indicate China is planning something closer to home? Might that be a little too bloody to be ignored? 

Or maybe China wants all three island targets and believes Taiwanese resistance would collapse quickly, ending that whole Ukraine resistance template that has arisen?

Does China feel a sense of urgency to do something that advances their claims while they can? Even if they don't want to launch a full invasion? And would the motivation be to do something while Russia is still standing? Which might perhaps take some pressure off of Russia?

I hope Taiwan is checking ammo and doubling the guard.

UPDATE: Is China prepared to do something because vocal Western support for Taiwan is humiliating?

China now fears that if DPP leaders and their Western supporters do not pay a price for their affronts, it will lose its grip on the situation. This would not only undermine Xi’s chance of achieving his long-term goal of reunification; it also could invite accusations of weakness that would undermine his standing both within and outside China. 

If so, bigger exercises and sabre rattling may not be enough. War may not be the answer--now--but something smaller might be. 

UPDATE: China has extended its military exercises around Taiwan begun after Pelosi's visit.

NOTE: My most recent war coverage continues here.

The Left is Stoking Baseless Panic For Political Gain

The left is looking for imaginary red-hatted revolutionaries under every bed. FFS, get a clue. Perhaps focus on making our extremely expensive institutions more trustworthy. Our people should be angry that our so-called leaders aren't doing that.

Insurrection porn for leftists:

As seen on Jan. 6, 2021, with Donald Trump's coup attempt and the attack on the Capitol by his followers, America's democracy crisis is also being accelerated by a Republican-fascist and larger "conservative" movement that embraces political violence as a way of advancing its revolutionary goals.

I'm not even going to address the idea that the right has "revolutionary goals." Not when radical leftists who embraced Resistance for four years are making that charge. Although I'll admit that King George III would have considered free speech, rule of law, and free and open elections to be revolutionary goals.

You really have to be brain dead not to understand the discontent:

Why don’t Americans trust the government and other institutions? Maybe it’s because the government and other institutions aren’t trustworthy. 

There’s certainly plenty of evidence for both the lack of trust and the lack of trustworthiness. And if the trend continues, it bodes poorly for America.

Gosh! Why wouldn't Americans trust our institutions with power (tip to Instapundit)?

But the left ignores that. The poll, the leftist panicmongers say, is a sign of "doomsday."

Just stop. It has always been the case that strong Republicans believe in theory that the spirit of 1776 requires the willingness to fight a tyrannical American federal government in defense of democracy. Always. That's a major reason for holding the Second Amendment so dear:

A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.

The security of a free State against a federal government that has too much power is paramount. That doesn't mean a civil war is planned or expected. We do have elections to resolve these questions now.

And when you read details of the poll behind the "political violence" porn, you see it isn't a uniquely Republican point of view: 

And 28 percent of voters, including 37 percent who have guns in their homes, agree that "it may be necessary at some point soon for citizens to take up arms against the government." That view is held by one in three Republicans, including 45 percent of self-identified strong Republicans. Roughly one in three (35 percent) Independent voters and one in five Democrats agreed. 

Huh.

To get the panic porn to its unhappy ending, the poll had to highlight "strong Republicans." Setting aside that the left is misinterpreting that view, a third of Republicans overall had that view. Independents were a bit higher than the average of all Republicans. Why aren't Independents given the insurgent treatment? And what of the Democrats? Twenty percent isn't that comforting, is it?

And gosh, it is so shocking that people who think Americans have individual responsibility to defend our democracy are more likely to own firearms. Will wonders never cease?

We'll get through this with a new consensus of some sort, although I have no opinion on that author's book other than the really big point not to panic because a new consensus will form from our divisions. As I've said. 

And let's not pretend that the right is the sole source of street unrest. And those leftist goons are proudly supported and justified by Democrats and our media.

Progressives should calm down, unfurrow their brows, and resume their fetal position about imminent planetary climate doom. 

We had the Whiskey Rebellion. New England wanted to secede during the War of 1812. We had Bleeding Kansas. We had a Civil War. Good Lord, I remember the political violence of the 1970s that continued from the late 1960s. What we have now is mild compared to any of those periods. Calm down. I think we can endure a social media "civil war."

The way the left calls a brief riot--which was certainly awful--at the Capitol Building an "insurrection" disposes me to dismiss "civil war" talk. Although I admit I'd feel better if our federal system returned more power to the states.

But since nothing else is working to help with the November 2022 elections, I guess leftists will go with this stupid claim. For now. We'll see what September propaganda brings.

All I know for sure is that our foreign enemies are delighted at the bogus charges sowing division.

NOTE: My most recent war coverage continues here.

Russian Control of Belarus is the Main Threat to NATO.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a wake-up call for NATO. Even before Russia invaded Ukraine, Russia vastly increased the threat to NATO by absorbing Belarus. Defeating Russia in Ukraine reduces and delays that threat.

NATO is reacting to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Using Belarus as a staging ground to invade Ukraine telegraphs Russia's ability to use Belarus to invade Lithuania, Latvia, and Poland:

Thus, Russia is using the territory of Belarus and its infrastructure for ground, air and missile attacks on Ukraine. Should it establish a continuous military presence in Belarus as a consequence of the present war, Russia could then directly threaten NATO members Poland, Lithuania and Latvia from Belarus. The Kremlin has compelled Belarus to reluctantly forfeit its role as peaceful buffer between Russia and Europe. It has, instead, turned an unwilling Belarus into a Russian military outpost, potential staging ground for offensive operations in several directions.

NATO’s looming loss of the Belarusian buffer, after decades of sheltering behind it, would become a momentous strategic reverse for the Alliance. The Strategic Concept mentions this problem in passing, on a list of “challenges”: “Moscow’s military buildup, including in the Baltic, Black, and Mediterranean sea regions, along with its military integration with Belarus, challenge our security and interests.“ Placing Belarus alongside other key theaters on this list amounts to acknowledging the magnitude of this particular challenge. NATO has, at this summit, approved a significant increase to its forces deployed in, or pre-assigned to, the Baltic States and Poland (see EDM, July 6).

You may recall that Russia carried out an anschluss with Belarus not that long before it starting massing troops to invade Ukraine.

That development is the main threat to NATO. Which is why Finland and Sweden joining NATO--after NATO accepts their applications--in response to Russian aggression is a big deal. Those countries make Russian operations in the Baltic Sea suicide missions. And greatly increases NATO's ability to support Estonia and Latvia especially if Russia invades them.

Ukraine in Russian hands expands Russia's threats to NATO across the entire eastern front. And defeating Russia in Ukraine forestalls that threat to southeast NATO; and mauls and occupies the attention of the Russian military for another generation at least, buying time for NATO to prepare in the northeast.

If any place should have a "color revolution" it is Belarus. Would a Russian defeat in Ukraine inspire the people and security apparatus in Belarus to act to avoid collateral damage from that event?

NOTE: My most recent war coverage continues here.

The Winter War of 2022 To Be Declared Over?

Is the Russian grain export deal parallel to Ukraine's deal with Turkey an indication that Russia wants the war to be over, validating Russia's conquests to date? Is Ukraine capable of pushing Russia back before that can happen, militarily or politically?

The war feels like it tipped to Ukraine. Absent any new mobilization efforts by Russia, that tilt seems likely to grow. Although nothing dramatic on the battlefield is evident. Yet one analyst I respect wonders--doesn't predict--if ending the fighting might suddenly be in Ukraine's interest and in Russia's interest.

Is Ukraine's recent purge of pro-Russian people a sign that Ukraine may be pushed to negotiate without getting territory back. And is actually completing a grain export deal a sign Russia is eager for a way out?

Russians and Ukrainians sitting side by side can’t help but bring to mind the possibilities of a peace treaty. The firings in Kyiv seem to indicate a degree of instability and discord in Ukraine, creating the possibility, however remote, that new considerations are being made that could lead to some kind of larger deal. ...

Both sides, then, would seem to have an interest in a negotiated settlement. The problem is that neither side can afford one. 

Despite all the bluster of Russian officials talking about overthrowing Zelensky, taking lots of Ukraine, and denying anything is wrong with their military or economy, is Putin accelerating planned fake elections to pave the way for annexing occupied Ukrainian territory in an effort to declare the war over? Does he think Ukraine would agree? Or think a Europe worried about winter and a Biden administration worried about November elections would compel Ukraine to agree?

Without Russian mobilization, that seems more likely to allow Putin to claim victory given Russia's current limited offensive capabilities.

And how long can that sputtering Russian effort last?

Ukrainian military planners now predict that Russian forces will be weakened sufficiently by the end of August that Ukrainian forces will be able to go on the offensive on a wide scale. 

Is Ukraine right? Does that weakening military effort drive Russia's annexation preparations? But can Ukraine exploit Russia's increasing weakness? Does Ukraine have the military power? Is Russian infiltration of Ukraine's government an indicator of decreased government capacity and troop morale to carry out a counter-offensive?

Not that I think the firings in Kiev affect Ukrainian troop morale. Troops at the front are focused on the fight, with Kiev at the echelon above their reality. But what about the senior officers planning and leading the fight? Will they be distracted or undermined?

There is a lot riding on Ukraine's nascent counteroffensive on the Kherson front. It could be Ukraine's last chance to achieve an offensive battlefield victory over the Russians and get some kind of clear victory rather than the victory of defying expectations and inflicting a devastating blow to Russia's military.

Would that kind of victory without ejecting Russia from most of this year's conquests be enough for Ukraine? Or will this war drag through the winter and see the first anniversary of Russia's invasion?

At my most optimistic in case the war does end with Russia holding Ukrainian territory, Ukraine may have bloodied Russia enough to deter another Russian invasion. Finland managed that in 1939-1940, after all. Today Finland is on the cusp of joining NATO.

At my most pessimistic, Russia pushes their logistics network deeper inside occupied Ukrainian territory and rebuilds their military. And in a decade or so invades again, at worst taking some more territory and at best learning enough to finish the conquest.

We'll know a lot more by September when the rival Russian and Ukrainian plans unfold. 

NOTE: ISW updates continue here.