THIS is a Marine Presence

There is a proposal to get Australia to request more of a U.S. Marine Corps presence in Australia.

America long ago began a process of rotating more and more Marines into Australia. We finally reached a battalion-sized air-ground task force called a Marine Expeditionary Unit.

Some Australians want more: 

Australia’s Institute of Public Affairs argued in a report released this week that hosting all those Marines could be the country’s “cheapest boost” to deterrence against adversaries such as China.

“The Australian government should open discussions with the U.S. to host a rotational presence of a Marine Expeditionary Brigade potentially of around 16,000 personnel, bringing with it significant increased firepower and aviation assets,” the report states.

That would be an air-ground Marine Expeditionary Brigade. So not a smaller Marine Littoral Regiment, apparently. And that's the type of unit we'll have in the western Pacific. You'd have to go to America's West Coast for that.

A force that size would be such a major move from California that I don't see it happening any time soon short of war. I mean, how long did it take to work up to a Marine Expeditionary Unit just visiting Australia? 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

How Many Times Will We Forfeit Victory in Iraq?

We won the Iraq War. Twice. Will we need to win it again because we let Iran dominate Iraq?

Even Obama and Biden admitted America won the Iraq War. So important was it to re-win it that Obama began Iraq War 2.0. And Trump concluded it. I know that is hard to recognize, but it's true.

So FFS:

In Iraq, where American military forces liberated the country from the evil clutches of Saddam Hussein just a few years ago, the independence of an American ally is increasingly in doubt. Iranian sympathizers exist at all levels of Iraqi’s government bureaucracy and legal system. Iraqi governmental decisions are made not in the best interests of the Iraqi people, but in the best interests of Iran’s mullahs. This perverse Iranian influence threatens American interests and undermines two decades of U.S. effort in blood and treasure to bring democracy and prosperity to Iraq. The Iranian influence affects national policy and the daily lives of Iraqis.

America needlessly walked away from the "good war" and let the Taliban win. So I can totally see us  walking away from this phase of the Iraq War because this administration looves mullah-run Iran.

And I don't know if we have it in us to wage Iraq War 3.0 no matter how necessary it is.

I worry. But no disaster so far. Hopefully enough Iraqis don't want to be a Persian vassal. But how many times before Iraq War 2.0 did I warn that we were ignoring a deteriorating situation in Iraq? A lot.

I'd be remiss if I didn't link to Eric who continues to diligently focus on the importance of Iraq, including in the face of Iran's current threat, and defend the decision to destroy the Saddam regime in 2003. Sadly this could still go either way and compel Iraq War 3.0.

Have a super sparkly Smart Diplomacy® day.

UPDATE: I missed this news when I was on vacation:

The bulk of U.S. forces will depart Iraq over the next two years, leaving only a residual force in the semiautonomous region of Kurdistan to provide security to Iraqi Kurds and sustain U.S. forces in Syria, according to Iraqi officials cited in a Sept. 12 report in the Washington Post. ...

A premature U.S. departure from Iraq that ignores the advice of military leaders and conditions on the ground risks repeating the mistakes of past withdrawals from Iraq and Afghanistan and catalyzing an ISIS resurgence.

I feared we'd be this stupid. But I didn't think we'd be this stupid. 

To be fair to the Iraqis who asked us to leave, they must fear the Iranians more than they feel they can count on us to back them when their lives are on the line. And if ISIL rises again? Well that's Tomorrow Iraq's problem. Today Iraq has to cope with Iranian power. If we can't protect a former American president from two assassination attempts in a single summer, what chance to Iraqi leaders have in the face of trained Iranian killers?

When asked to leave, of course we leave. But it's on us for driving the Iraqis to ask us to leave.

When I scheduled this post before I want on vacation, I had no idea how timely it would be.

Have that day again.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

The Winter War of 2022 Approaches the End of the Fighting Season

Fighting in Ukraine won't stop as the weather gets worse. But it will make it more difficult to exploit any battlefield victory on the front. Is there a sense of urgency at the Kursk salient to exploit the coming bad weather by locking in success while movement is easier?

That seems about right:

Fall and winter weather conditions will likely complicate Russian and Ukrainian battlefield activity but are very unlikely to completely stall activity along the frontline.

The fall will be worse for movement because of the mud. In the winter the ground will solidify to allow cross-country vehicle movement, but the cold will add problems. 

Is Russia's apparent counter-offensive at the Kursk salient an effort to drive the Ukrainian out of Russia before the weather turns sour?

Apparent Russian "advances" into areas maps commonly shown to be controlled by Ukraine may simply be nominally controlled, as in Ukraine's units may have been the last to move through it.

And there are counter-rumors that Ukraine is pouncing on the counter-attacking Russians near the border west of the map area showing the salient; even as the Ukrainians keep trying to expand the salient.

The situation remains unclear.

UPDATE (Monday) TDI on the Pokrovsk offensive.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

I also post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Give in to the Dark Side and subscribe. Hell, share links! I continue posting here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. So read here, too. With 22,000+ posts here, I get hits from searching on top of regular readership. So I can hardly abandon this publication!

Impressive: "A Ukrainian intelligence operation carried out a surprise attack on a Russian air base near the Arctic Circle. This is 1,800 kilometers from Ukraine and was apparently carried out by Ukrainian operatives who, pretending to be Russian truck drivers, transported the drones to northwest Russia."

Disloyal minority groups in Russia? And the Russia-Norway border region. Strategypage is really mashing together topics in their posts lately. 

Interesting: "China will send samples of bricks [using simulated Moon "soil"] to its space station in the coming months to test their durability in extreme conditions and potential use in building moon bases." Tip to Instapundit.

Throttling China with a naval blockade and holding the perimeter. Worry about who's on the wrong side of the blockade line. And if a blockade is successful, wouldn't China resort to nukes to prevent regime collapse?

Learning from the Winter War of 2022: "The U.S. Army is planning to ask for more flexible funding for unmanned aircraft systems, capabilities to counter them and electronic warfare tools in its next budget[.]" 

Complaining that Ukraine wants to drag America into the war to defeat Russia. Obviously Ukraine wants help--and America in particular--to defeat the larger and brutal Russia. The Allies wanted American help in World War I and II. I don't blame Ukraine. That doesn't mean we have to join unless in our interest. 

We're going to need the F-22 longer than the Air Force planned.

Can't have Air Force cadets seeing the fortitude needed to violently defeat foes: "No longer will the full cadet wing be required to attend home football games. The two exceptions will be the opening game on parents’ weekend, which took place this past Saturday, and the Oct. 5 contest vs. Navy."

Nice: "Soldiers will soon train on fewer systems and haul less gear downrange thanks to the Army’s adoption of an advanced new shoulder-launched munition." But no effort ever reduces the load our infantry must shoulder as they walk to battle.

Big mistakeski: "China’s Defense Ministry on Monday announced joint naval and air drills with Russia starting this month, underscoring the closeness between their militaries as Russia presses its grinding invasion of Ukraine." I've warned Russia to never ever let China see its military up close.

This seems at least prematurely way too optimistic over Ukraine's Kursk salient: "Russia is now in a situation where they will have to surrender all their occupied Ukrainian territory to end the war and hope that NATO and Ukrainian demands for restitution do not become another economic problem for them."

Tail: "The invading Russians forces had few or none of the support services Ukraine provides for its own troops. This has provided Ukrainian troops with a major advantage. Unlike Russian troops in Ukraine, Ukrainian soldiers suffer less from malnutrition, cold weather, untreated wounds and supply shortages."

Interesting that with updates the old girls can still be effective at some jobs: "Originally deployed by the U.S. Army in 1959, the HAWK system, despite its age, has proven highly effective in protecting Ukrainian cities and strategic infrastructure."

When the Army abandons the traditional message of  "defend America" why join? "To combat a growing apathy toward the military and a hot job market, the U.S. Army continues to seek recruits by offering large signing bonuses and launching expensive advertising campaigns." No slogan can obscure that absence.

Ditto for the Navy.

If not in Lithuania and Romania, where should NATO resist Russia? And how much more will it cost to stop Russia farther west. More--like in the Cold War--or less? I say keep Russia as far east as possible. And yeah, if you understand our defense needs, you'd honestly design American strategy to do that.

How could a report on our retreat withdrawal from Afghanistan be anything but critical? Pretend all you want, but we needlessly lost the war.

Yeah: "For two and a half years the Biden Administration has had a policy of not letting Kyiv win lest Russia escalate. At the same time, it clearly does not want Russia to win as it has often stated." Invading Ukraine was patient zero of escalation. I say if we aren't trying to win, we're more likely to lose.

The jihad in Europe. Sadly, the nuanced leadership believes Islamist terror is just a fact of life to beaccepted. They worry more about a victim backlash than the actual jihadi lash. I ask yet again, why do we hate us?

France recognizes Morocco's claim to Western Sahara nearly fifty years after Morocco took it. So what? Not like Western Saharans are the Queen of the Victim Prom, or anything! And France wants a win somewhere in its stretch of former northwest Africa colonies. So Morocco is in the win column. Huzzah.

A long war does that: "CNN spoke to six commanders and officers who are or were until recently fighting or supervising units in the area. All six said desertion and insubordination are becoming a widespread problem, especially among newly recruited soldiers." Russia faces worse. But has the initiative.

Russia uses chemical weapons a lot: "The Ukrainian Support Forces Command stated that Russian forces are using K-51 and RG-VO gas grenades to deliver munitions containing banned chemical agents and are also using unidentified chemical compounds."

Subliminal ultimatum? "China called on the Philippines to 'seriously consider the future' of a relationship 'at a crossroads' in a Monday commentary published by the People's Daily, the newspaper of the governing Communist Party, amid tensions in the South China Sea."

Change: "Cyprus and the United States have signed a defense cooperation framework agreement that outlines ways the two countries can enhance their response to regional humanitarian crises and security concerns, including those arising from climate change." It's Incirlik 2.0 in the eastern Mediterranean Sea.

Sigh: "Germany is rearming too slowly to counter Russia and will need as long as a century to build up parts of its military inventory to the level of 20 years ago, according to a think tank report released Monday." Germany keeps shifting between Hulk modes. At least the worrying can stop.

I'll note that the Netherlands actually fought at our side in Afghanistan: "The Netherlands plans to bolster its armed forces by reconstituting a tank battalion, buying more F-35 fighter jets and adding anti-submarine frigates" 

The GAO warns that special forces haven't completed their analysis to justify buying OA-1K "armed overwatch" aircraft. 

An Army tactical resupply SMET ground drone.

Attrition: "For more than two decades China has been increasing the use of its warplanes to enter the ADIZs (air defense identification zone) of Japan and Taiwan and force those two nations to send up warplanes to confront the intruders." Remember, an ADIZ is not territorial air space. Just sort of?

It is actually horrifying to see people blame Israel rather than Hamas for the deaths of Israeli hostages captured on October 7, 2023 and eventually murdered/killed. Music to Hamas ears.

Strategic warfare: "Over 140 Ukrainian drones targeted multiple Russian regions overnight, including Moscow and surrounding areas, killing at least one person, officials said Tuesday[.]" This gains resources as the front remains static.

Hezbollah and the Iran connection.

Talking about not talking any more: "A senior US military official warned his Chinese counterpart against Beijing's 'dangerous' moves in the South China Sea during the first talks of their kind between the commanders."

The Army still wants to offer the God of War the Extended Range Cannon Artillery.

So? "Warnings from U.S. military officers about the Taliban's swift advances as American troops withdrew from Afghanistan in 2021 went unheeded in Washington, D.C.[.]" We knew that. The responsibility is on civilian leaders, of course, but no military leader resigned before or after in protest. 

Huh: "Iran will be hit with new sanctions Tuesday for supplying ballistic missiles to Russia, Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced." What part of unrequited love has been unclear? 

Russia proves in Ukraine that if it wages war on Turkey--yet again--it will bombard you: "Turkey has finalized key plans for its Çelik Kubbe – Steel Dome – air defense system, a project designed to enhance the nation’s airspace security with advanced, multilayered defense capabilities." Be a good NATO ally!

Drone fighters: "Raytheon is working with the Air Force to integrate the AIM-120 Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missile (AMRAAM) onto its first increment of loyal wingman drones known as collaborative combat aircraft (CCA)[.]" The Army needs to do small fighter drones for the brown skies.

Duct fan drones. 

Good: "Networking capability upgrades are allowing Army units to fight in a more dispersed manner and at lower levels of classification." Firepower/targeting advances have led to lower troop density over time (tip to TDI):

The Army had a physical-training short camp for those who failed initial push-up test when I went to basic training: "The Army has graduated nearly 25,000 recruits from its Future Soldier Prep Course who have gone on to become soldiers." I went to a MI National Guard weekend mini-boot camp that clued me in.

Big Commie Han Brother is Watching! "China's government said on Wednesday it would carefully review email tipoffs it has received about Taiwan 'separatist' activity, adding that 'good people' have nothing to worry about, drawing a rebuke from Taipei that Beijing was simply lying."

The F**k-Up Fairy guides the Palestinians. Hence my compare-and-contrast suggestion for "post-war" Gaza.

Yeah: "Ukrainian leaders are trying to make their NATO supporters understand that the only way to end the current and future Russian aggression against Ukraine is to support Ukrainian efforts to regain Ukrainian territory the Russians have seized since 2014." Ukraine is right. Distance from Russia is good.

History didn't end after the USSR fell. We acted like it did: "the modern NDS is insufficiently equipped to meet the challenges of great power competition – a 2023 NDS estimate found that the current stockpile [of critical raw materials] would meet 6 percent of essential shortfalls in a national security crisis."

Closing Iran's ballistic missile barn door after deliberately leaving the door open in 2015. Smart Diplomacy® continues to impress.

Is Ukraine's Kursk incursion a "distraction" from what it should be doing? Defending? I worry if Ukraine tries to hold their salient too long in the face of serious Russian counter-attacks. But the distraction complaint could have been made about the Doolittle Raid, too.

Good: "Doug Bush, assistant secretary of the Army for acquisition, logistics and technology, said the Army is now 'on a path' to producing 70,000 to 80,000 rounds per month by the end of 2024 or early 2025." We're up to 30,000. We aim for 100,000.

Dispersed Army units and command posts; longer-range fires; and the armored "penetration" division.

We're failing: "Merchant ships in the Red Sea are still being attacked by Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen."

The Iran-Israel Quasi War. 

For our reconnaissance cavalry: "Lighter, more lethal units, equipped with state of the art technology, are being seen as the way forward for the service." I fear armies have wrongly believed high-tech lethality can be achieved before. A lightly protected burning hulk can't scout.

The U.S. supports permanent UN Security Council seats for African states and Pacific island nations collectively? This may support our efforts to rally Pacific states to resist China. But how does letting African foes vote against us over Gaza gain America support from hostile states? Smart Diplomacy!®

Drones? "This month in the sky over Yuma Proving Ground, the US Army is testing out a slew of drones in an effort to help decide just what the future force needs and pave a path towards acquiring it, according to a pair of one-star generals."

Playing with fire: "America’s top Marine pledged this week to help the Philippine military develop capabilities to monitor its sea territory amid ongoing coast guard clashes with China, according to a state-run media report."

Mines: "More than 100 mines have been spotted by U.S. military reconnaissance aircraft and allies in the Black Sea since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine more than two years ago, the commanding officer of U.S. 6th Fleet said this week."

The Air Force is disbanding a dedicated close air support unit as it retires the units A-10s. So no new planes with dedicated CAS missions for the unit? Just delete it? Yeah, my issue has always been about the mission and not the aircraft. Are both being retired?

AUKUS continues: "In 2021 Australia decided to abandon diesel-electric subs for nuclear-powered ones."

Is Russia staggering? Russia hides it, of course. So it would be a mistake to believe any Potemkin Villages we see. But I hate to assume what I hope is true is fact.

We're giving Iraq to Iran: "The United States will withdraw most troops from Iraq over the next two years but leave a small residual force in the northern Kurdistan region under a plan negotiated by American and Iraqi officials, who disclosed some details of the deal this week." Is our government really trying to stay?

Ukraine's effort to add protection to the Abrams to face the latest threats the tank was not designed to survive.

Small drones for the Army. 

In theory it is good for the Army to help the Air Force with anti-aircraft missiles as the Air Force disperses aircraft to smaller bases to avoid Chinese missile attacks. But more units make the bases far less agile and more difficult to supply.

Drawing a supply line in the South China Sea .

Despite the claims that Arabs are all-in on the Palestinian issue, 11 months of war haven't led Arab governments to abandon the Abraham Accords.

The Chinese Communist Party promised prosperity to its people in exchange for a monopoly on political power. That deal is fraying. Will China return to brute force to keep the monopoly on power? Tip to Instapundit.

Defending against China's ballistic missiles. This is timely.

SEAL Team 6 is in Taiwan to train them to resist a potential Chinese invasion.

Will Iraq really ask America to remove its troops? "Iraqi forces and American troops have killed a senior commander with the Islamic State group who was wanted by the United States, as well as several other prominent militants, Iraq’s military said on Friday."

This is Chinese extortion without limits--not an alliance: "The United States has accused China of providing Russia with extensive military support to fuel the war in Ukraine. In return, Moscow is reportedly handing over critical military technology on submarines and missiles." It's self-defeating.

It's dangerous to minimize nuclear deterrence because Russia made non-credible threats to use nukes if anyone stepped on their territory as Ukraine did in Kursk. The three shaken "truths" were never "truths".

Ukraine doesn't recognize limits to the theaters of war to fight Russia's invasion.

Ukraine stretches Russian air defenses.

Let There Be Light

Is a free North Korea the only way out of the lasting stalemate at the DMZ between an impoverished, cruel, and aggressive north and a free and prosperous South Korea on the other side?

South Korea has changed its annual remembrance of Korean liberation from Japanese colonial rule in 1945 from one that hopes for a unified Korea to one that specifies a vision for that unification:

Every year, on August 15, there is a public holiday in South Korea to commemorate the day the Korean peninsula was liberated from Japanese colonial rule. On this day, there is a longstanding tradition whereby South Korean presidents outline their vision for Korean unification – Korea has been divided between the North and South since 1945.

But the country’s current president, Yoon Suk Yeol, proposed a new approach this year. Rather than emphasizing “peaceful unification” with North Korea, as has been the focus of many previous presidents, Yoon’s vision places “freedom” at the heart of South Korea’s unification pursuit.

Fair is fair given that North Korea looms over South Korea promising violent unification under the north's Hellish version of despotic and cruel governance.

And since North Korea has lost the ability to march south it has focused on the ability to destroy Seoul with conventional and chemical bombardment, it seeks nuclear weapons.

Revolution in North Korea is the logical way out of that kind of stalemate that threatens to ignite the peninsula with nuclear weapons held by a paranoid thug. Taiwan has even more reason to follow that path.

Still, the initial article wraps up with this warning, however:

But provoking Kim’s regime may jeopardize lives by triggering a more repressive crackdown on people in North Korea.

Ah, yes. This handcuffs our policies by caring more about North Korean people than the regime does. It's national hostage-taking. That kind of compassion is false. 

And it's a variation of the resisting-thugs-just-makes-things-worse theory. Reject the "Let the Wookie win" policy.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: I'm now on Substack, with The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

All Your Island Are Belong to Us

Just because China discovered its military has some serious weaknesses due to corruption doesn't mean China will refrain from pushing weaker neighbors to take their territory.

China tries subliminal war closer to home: 

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) began aggressively challenging Taiwan’s jurisdiction over its outlying islands, especially Kinmen, in February 2024. Repeated Chinese Coast Guard incursions in Taiwan-controlled waters around Kinmen aim to normalize the PRC’s "law enforcement" jurisdiction in the area.

If Taiwan escalates to military actions to defend their islands, I don't know whether America would help Taiwan hold those islands. Would that break the defense ties? Or break China's fear of the defense ties? Or just break Taiwan's will to resist because they feel the shadow of death fall across the main island?

Taiwan and its allies need to win this war at the subliminal war level to prevent bad repercussions.

Because if it works there, China will apply it to the territory that China is clawing away from the Philippines in the South China Sea.

And maybe China decides it can test Taiwan and its allies by using its military to capture a small Taiwanese island. To really rub it in. Maybe Pratas Island, eh?

Hell, Russia should check their pucker factor.

Before going for the big prize, Taiwan.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: I'm now on Substack, with The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Defense in Depth in the Pacific

The United States is working on the next line of defense in the western Pacific.

Image from Geopolitical Futures.

Here are some details of the American version of China's anti-access/area denial network, dubbed the Joint Reconnaissance-Strike Complex, for the western Pacific first island chain.

Reinforcing the second island chain seems prudent as China's military reach moves farther from its shores:

The second island chain gives the U.S. strategic depth, focusing on things like long-range surveillance and strike capabilities. In theory, it will reinforce the first island chain in the case of an attack and act as a deterrent.

I hope the theory is right. It is good to have positions farther back so we aren't just packing forces into a few bases too close to Chinese military power practically begging China to conduct a theater-wide Pearl Harbor.

If allies or potential allies find themselves on the wrong side of the main line of defense, they may not remain allies for long. If they cut a deal with China to make the best of a bad situation, we lose needed allied power to defeat China. Japan and South Korea are key allies to hold steady on the line. But don't forget Taiwan, the Philippines, and Vietnam.

And then, what happens to the Marines on those isolated anti-ship outposts they are trying to hold? And the Army seems determined to join them out on a limb, as the first article indicates.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: I'm now on Substack, with The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Accountability Flows Downhill, Apparently

If our military and civilian leaders haven't admitted they were defeated in Afghanistan, how can we learn to win the next time we fight?

CDR Salamander relived the horror of our Afghanistan Skedaddle Debacle: 

Even the most die hard Biden partisan should be demanding the resignation of the Secretary of State, the Secretary of Defense, and the National Security Advisor. In another age, they would have all resigned already - but we don’t live in that age. 

I was horrified. It was the first time I've felt in my bones that America had been defeated. Worse, our leaders had the audacity to try to spin our retreat as a spectacular success.

And I too was eager for accountability:

Our flag officers who seemingly blow with the left-wing political winds need to be purged after the Afghanistan debacle with an old fashioned Roman "decimation". There is hope from the ranks of the military leaders who actually fight.

Yet even three years later, defeat is still an opportunity for profit. 

Don't expect a mere commission to provide senior leadership accountability. Accountability is for the little people standing guard around an airport perimeter at the ass end of nowhere.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: I'm now on Substack, with The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

The Hits to the Navy Keep Coming

Our Navy has problems. Add one more to the list.

US Navy Photo

One of our Navy's strengths is sustaining naval power abroad. Wait. What? 

Military Sealift Command has drafted a plan to remove the crews from 17 Navy support ships due to a lack of qualified mariners to operate the vessels across the Navy, USNI News learned.

The MSC “force generation reset” identified two Lewis and Clark replenishment ships, one fleet oiler, a dozen Spearhead-class Expeditionary Fast Transports (EPF) and two forward-deployed Navy expeditionary sea bases that would enter an “extended maintenance” period and have their crews retasked to other ships in the fleet, three people familiar with the plan told USNI News Thursday.

A "reset". On the bright side, our inability to expand the Navy or maintain what we have is moot if we can't sustain ships overseas.

Bye USS Herschel “Woody” Williams (ESB-4).

Maybe the Army needs to build its own ship, The AFRICOM Queen, as I explored in Military Review, to maintain a presence around Africa's littorals. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: I'm now on Substack, with The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

The Winter War of 2022 Loses Momentum

It just seems like we're waiting for something significant to happen in the war.

What will happen in Ukraine's Kursk salient created from their August 6th incursion? Will Russia's drive at their own slowly expanding Avdiivka salient culminate short of Ukrainian-held Pokrovsk? Will Ukraine decisively counter-attack there?

Ukraine's commander defends the Kursk incursion:

The commander in chief of the Ukrainian military, Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, said Thursday that the Kursk offensive has been effective and the “strategy is working” to block Russian forces from taking more territory in eastern Ukraine.

Syrskyi told CNN’s Christiane Amanpour that the Kursk operation “reduced the threat of an enemy offensive” and prevented a Russian attack, saying Moscow had amassed tens of thousands of troops in the region, including experienced airborne ones.

I did read that Russia was gathering forces to threaten Ukraine's Sumy province. I speculated that one reason for the incursion could be a spoiling attack to delay a Russian offensive. It may have done that. Yet  until Russia does something on the Kursk front, Ukraine is under no pressure to finish the raid and retreat to prepared defensive positions. It seems unlikely this front will be decisive militarily despite rival claims of shaking the foundation of the Russian state or the doomed folly of Ukraine's salient.

Can either side achieve a significant result in their air wars to affect the land fight? Does it matter that Russia can't use the western Black Sea? Can Ukraine drop the Kerch Strait bridge? And will it matter so late in the war as Russia builds land lines of supply across the northern shore of the Sea of Azov? Can Russia sustain its high losses in men and materiel?

Heck, can anything happen on the Kherson front?

Something will end the stalemate. 

UPDATE (Monday): Strategypage describes the railroad, communications, and natural gas problems Ukraine has caused Russia in the Kursk salient.

I guess I don't understand why Ukraine needs to control any pumping station inside Russia when it controls the pipelines going through Ukraine. And the rail problem is bizarre. You'd think Russia could route around the disruption. But their shortages prevent that fully.

UPFATE (Thursday): Russia counter-attacked the Kursk salient:

The size, scale, and potential prospects of the September 11 Russian counterattacks in Kursk Oblast are unclear and the situation remains fluid as of this report. It is premature to draw conclusions about Russia’s new counterattacks and ISW will continue following the situation.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: I'm now on Substack, with The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

I also post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Give in to the Dark Side and subscribe. Hell, share links! I continue posting here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. So read here, too.

Remember how so many say we must abandon Europe and the Middle East to focus on Asia to confront China? Never mind. Why even try to oppose China? China is close and we're far away (ignoring that strong allies are close to China). My prophecy unfolds.  

The rise of the drones. I still suspect the power of the drones in Ukraine is enabled by lack of counter-measures, artillery shell shortages, and the largely static frontline. And a discussion of  "victory through airpower."

Can we count on this forever? "Xi has openly complained about corruption, poor work habits and lack of discipline. Xi ordered a purge of military personnel responsible for these problems and demanded that officials in charge of military combat and support operations make the changes, or else." Purges continue.

Interesting: "'If you go into any elite circle, pushing back against Russia is obvious, and Israel is complicated. If you go outside elite circles, it’s exactly the opposite.'" Grew up in Detroit. Live in Ann Arbor. I blend that! Stopping Russia seems obvious. And supporting Israel is equally obvious.

Not nearly as subliminal as the offensive was before: "The Philippines has expressed its 'displeasure' to China after their ships collided again in the South China Sea on Saturday, according to its top envoy."

Doctor Strangelove warned us about the vill of AI: "To put it bluntly, whereas human wargames and war itself entail the deliberate use of force to compel an enemy to our will, AI is not bound to the core of human instincts, self-preservation." I worry more when AI gains a sense of self-preservation, honestly.

Is Erdogan finally killing off rule of law after his election close call a couple (?) years ago?   Our "break" needs to last longer. And for God's sake, we've removed or disabled our nukes at Incirlik, right? Right?

Not sure if this is a new attack: "Chinese forces surrounded and rammed the flagship of the Philippine Coast Guard today at Escoda Shoal in the seventh scuffle this month between Beijing and Manila in the South China Sea." We need a better strategy. I say Berlin Airlift: East.

In related news about doing something else: "Both the United States and the Philippines are agonizing over their ability to deter China as confrontations between an under-resourced Manila and an expansionist Beijing increase."

Also, in related news, the Navy sent the America "light carrier" with F-35s to support the Philippines symbolically. Remember, America is not a carrier. But it can do some things a real carrier can. Precision and stealth help a lot, too.

A replacement for the SR-71--the SR-72, with strike capability--is in production? Huh.

In my view, the Army's leaders chose the left side of the divide. And oddly enough, the left isn't joyfully joining and the right stopped wanting to: "Selling America: The Army’s fight to find recruits in a mistrustful, divided nation[.]"

Once again, Trump wants a stronger NATO. 

JASSM to get real-world testing: "The U.S. is close to an agreement to give Ukraine long-range cruise missiles that could reach deep into Russia, but Kyiv would need to wait several months as the U.S. works through technical issues ahead of any shipment, U.S. officials said." I'm sure China will thank Russia.

The Army thinks that it needs to train to deploy its floating pier system in more realistic conditions. Also, prohibiting soldiers from going ashore as at Gaza hurt employment. More lessons may follow.

Well, that's good I suppose: "The United States has captured an ISIS leader who helped members of the terror group after they escaped from a detention facility in Syria, according to U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM)." Better not to have let him lead a prison break.

Medal of Honor determination.

I'm not taking advice from peace activists who probably side with our enemies on whether cluster munitions should be legal. And their point about unexploded bomblets from our strikes interfering with our advancing troops is an issue of tactical usage rather than proof they aren't useful to win.

This writer (tip to Instapundit) thinks Russia's losses defy Biden administration observations that "Russia is surging ahead" in men and materiel. That's what I wrote about here and here recently.

Getting into space.

Russia prioritizes armored vehicles for scarce ball bearings: "Russian railroads are at the point of collapse. This process began before Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. This process was underway before Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. The covid-19 pandemic disrupted ball bearing production worldwide." Huh.

Good! "Converting Ukrainian rail lines from Russian to European gauge is not only necessary economically, but also militarily to deter the Russians from invading again, or cripple their logistics if they do." I've long wanted Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania to do that, too.

A call to wage legal sabotage of China's defense industrial base. 

To deter China convince the Chinese that a war for Taiwan will be long. Hmmm. I say, as I argued in Military Review, convince the Chinese the war will end with the PLA driven into the sea. 

Brexit was Britain cutting the anchor of Europe loose.

I remember being a bit disappointed in Musk at the time. Why didn't the news tell me he had to deny Ukraine's request to stay within U.S. law? "Starlink was barred from turning on satellite beams in Crimea at the time, because doing so would violate US sanctions against Russia!" Tip to Instapundit.

If South Korea gets nukes it would have to gut its conventional military to pay for it? Quitting the non-proliferation treaty would make South Korea a rogue state? America would punish South Korea? Really? North Korea builds nukes. America abandoned Afghanistan. Iran gets rewarded! Ah, Smart Diplomacy!®

Stalemate in Ukraine on the ground pushes emphasis on an air war to seek advantage: "As in WWII, air power in Ukraine cannot and will not be the key to victory."

Do Iran's ballistic missiles work? I've noted that its large April attack on Israel demonstrated many flaws in the missiles. Without the missiles, nuclear warheads are less than useful. Of course, flaws in the Iran nuclear deal are the reason Iran can try to make its missiles work.

What would the wartime mission be? "The U.S. Marine Corps and South Korea joined for Exercise Ssang Yong 24 on Monday along the coastal area of Songra-myeon, Pohang, South Korea with four big-deck amphibious ships — two U.S. and two Korean."

To be seen is to be hit: "the Army is studying to change its tactics and incorporate technology into its formations faster to keep up with the changing face of warfare where sensing capabilities are prolific and unmanned aerial systems, UAS, or drones overhead can easily pinpoint targets." Shoot first. Keep moving.

From the same exercise above, cheap electronic decoys to lure the enemy into revealing its assets. 

What kind of training makes the best vehicle gunners?

Is the fifth column useful idiots or on the other side? "The Post’s Isabel Vincent reported exclusively Friday that Iran is funding anti-Israel, pro-Hamas groups and campus protests via a network of activist groups whose names bear no sign of Tehran’s ties." Approved collusion, of course. Tip to Instapundit.

Feel the Joy! Or else! "Christmas will start next month in Venezuela, authoritarian leader Nicolas Maduro has decreed – even as thousands of Venezuelans look set to pass the holidays behind bars amid his government’s crackdown on political unrest." Tip to Instapundit. 

Reaper's replacement will be a jet-powered drone. This is Big Drone and not the cheap, disposable stuff.

So how good is our weather intelligence to identify weather conditions conducive to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan? Although if China destroys our weather satellites--or cuts off China weather station data--I think that is warning enough. But could we detect data distortions to deceive in time to react?

Will AI-equipped air defenses nullify stealth aircraft? Stealth provides very low signature--not zero signature. Can AI detect that weak evidence? And some interesting aircraft production angles.

More push-back over the Marine Force Design radical redesign. I have concerns and the "rally 'round the Force Design flag" response to concerns does not increase my confidence in the changes.

How close is Iran to nukes? "Some worry Iran could use the Middle East’s instability, and the war in Gaza, as a pretext to further expand its nuclear capabilities—if not make a dash for a bomb." Indeed. Iran's mullahs are nutballs--not stupid:

Maybe we need more training in not being stupid by traveling to hostile countries: "A U.S. Navy sailor has been detained in Venezuela after traveling there unauthorized on personal business, the Pentagon said Wednesday." Does everybody want American hostages these days? The question was rhetorical.

Get there first with the most information: "The U.S. military should learn from the Ukrainian experience, which put a premium on the value of loose coordination to ensure speed in countering Russian propaganda[.]" Your host has an indirect role in highlighting crippling fear of information war errors.

Would Russia gain more of a propaganda advantage by downing a F-16 than Ukraine would gain by using the planes close to or across the border with Russia? In a war of mass and mass losses, it seems so odd that a single plane could provide that much of a propaganda edge for Russia.

Russia would like Africa to export fewer raw materials and more illegal migrants to Europe: "As of this year, Russia has increased its efforts to influence operations in Africa that cause political and economic problems for NATO countries." Is Mali really going to use Russian help to restore democracy?

Senior NCOs on  on"USS Manchester decided they should have real WiFi while the sailors could throw messages in a bottle overboard. Senior leadership lets this happen. The pressure to keep 75 surface warships available must be high. And stresses the fleet, exacerbating our failure to build enough ships.

The U.S. reacted to a lack of American merchant ships in both world wars to build up its transport fleet. We could not translate that wartime success into peacetime commercial success. I doubt America could repeat its ship recovery in the next war. It's an interesting tale of structurally high labor and steel costs.

Remember when Turkey issues Assad an ultimatum to just stop? Thirteen years later, never mind. For all the talk of the need for perfect plans and exit strategies, sometimes just not giving up works well enough. For Assad and his omelet cronies, of course--not Syria's millions of eggs. 

For the Russian Arctic garden party, a couple stealth fighters play the role of the skunk: "On Sept. 4, 2024, two F-35A jets belonging to the 495th Fighter Squadron of the 48th Fighter Wing operated out of a road strip in Finland for the first time."

The EU in action: "Two months after pledging to shape a legal framework that would give Ukraine the interest earned on frozen Russian assets, the EU still hasn’t taken the necessary steps to make this a reality. And time is running out on Ukraine’s finances." The EU wants the power to act--action is not a priority.

Fortunately, Ukraine is better at drones: "FPV drones are precision weapons and now account for most of the Russian casualties." Is this data is current or is it based on Ukrainian artillery ammunition shortages. FPV drones are useful. I'm just not flinging panties at them. Also, a discussion of fuel-air explosives.

The importance of experience for troop effectiveness; and how to train experience into the troops. I was surprised that Ukraine didn't use experienced troops to equip their new brigades for the 2023 counteroffensive.

War with Iran is the "last thing" America should want? "U.S. military force against Iran will have first and second-order effects, all of them negative." Mullahs with nukes are actually the last thing America should want. First- and second-order effects of that would be much worse. A revolution would be least bad.

Give China an inch in the South China Sea and they'll take a mile: "The Philippines and like-minded states should not buttress or in any other way legitimize China’s actions by negotiating rights that China has no legal claim to. Doing so undermined the global rules-based order."

Xi and Kim delay a crisis: "Russian regimes have been toppled by revolutions on three occasions—1905, 1917, and in 1990—each time due to the state trying to sustain a war or a military buildup for which it lacked resources. [Russian losses] increased speculation the Ukraine war could make this a fourth time."

Small units need anti-drone defenses. What should that look like? The article focuses on ground vehicles. I say small units need fighter drones in the "brown skies" above them, as I wrote in Army magazine.

Diversity is not the Navy's strength. Yeah, woke lips sink ships. Preparing to fight clearly isn't the highest priority. Diversity should mean assimilating every person without prejudice into a Navy warfighting melting pot--not downgrading warfighting to promote demographic tribalism.

Good: "Seven NATO countries completed an Iceland-based exercise aimed at defending vital underwater lines of communication and sea routes against conventional military threats and acts of sabotage." Russia's naval interdiction capabilities in the GIUK gap are weak. But it's best not to tempt them.

The Chinese have many targets: "Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said Thursday that Malaysia will not bow to demands by China to stop its oil and gas exploration in the South China Sea as the activities are within the country’s waters."

In addition to ammunition and whatnot, the latest American military aid package to Ukraine includes Bradley Fighting Vehicles, M113 armored personnel carriers, and MRAPs. I've been wondering about the absence of armored fighting vehicles in the packages.

LOL (tip to Instapundit). A writer of my own heart. 

A thousand grains of sand: "For the second time this year, Chinese students studying in neighboring countries were arrested for espionage activities in South Korea and Japan. This is nothing new as China has been expanding its espionage activities for some time." 

Good news for Israel. Bad news for Ukraine: "US and European officials reported that Iran delivered hundreds of short-range ballistic missiles to Russia to support Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine." But what is Iran getting in return for sacrificing capabilities to attack Israel?

Russia's revived threat has revived American concerns for the Arctic, especially missile attacks: "Now the Americans are reviving their Arctic military bases and over-the-horizon radars." How long before we have POLARCOM? Arctic warfare has unique challenges just to survive--let alone fight.

Bastards: "Russian forces are increasingly executing surrendering Ukrainian soldiers throughout the frontline likely in part because Russian commanders appear to be endorsing the proliferation of such war crimes." It's usually a bad idea to surrender in battle.

That's a relief. Now bring the crew home: "The landing was long-delayed, coming more than three months into an orbital mission originally expected to last about 10 days. And, while Starliner launched with two NASA astronauts aboard — Williams and Butch Wilmore — nobody rode it home." Tip to Instapundit.

Ouch. Michigan was not ready to play Texas on Saturday. I knew our offense needed work, but I expected our defense to keep the game close. Maybe if we see them in the playoffs we'll be ready. But bigger problems of being ready for the rest of our games in this season have to be corrected before that.

The Sinkin' Project

Don't get too wrapped up in fixing narrow problems in our naval power. There might be a root cause.

But other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?

Even if Congress appropriated more funds the shipbuilding industry does not have the capacity to provide more ships, faster. Ships are late in delivery and beset with problems.  We have advanced weaponry that works well as proved by recent use in the middle east, but far too few to last in a sustained conflict. Our enemies overseas see weakness and become bolder. As good as our missiles are, ships carry limited numbers. Experts warn that we will run out of missiles far sooner than we will run out of targets. A third of our ships at any given time are not ready for sea due to maintenance issues.

But hey, those are big, complicated issues! At least the little, routine stuff is well within their--wait. What?

The Navy is dealing with what could be called a sartorial crisis: The sea service has run out of pants. And it may not get more for months.

Huh.

The wide-ranging problems plaguing the Navy obscure that the common thread is poor Navy leadership. Maybe I shouldn't get my hopes up over individual apparent successes.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: I'm now on Substack, with The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

The Journey to Erase the Century of Humiliation Starts With the First Nine Miles

China is starting to demand territorial concessions from Russia. Easy Chinese access to the Sea of Japan will allow China to put more pressure on Russia's Pacific coast.

 

China wants regular access from the river to the sea: 

China will enter into talks with Russia and North Korea on securing greater access to a Northeast Asia river that runs into the Sea of Japan.

An increase in Chinese commercial activity in the area is likely to see Chinese maritime forces get a boost. That could leave Japan to feel compelled to do the same, stretching its forces in an area disputed by both countries, according to one analyst.

The 324-mile Tumen River flows from northeast China to North Korea and, toward its end, Russia, ceded to the Russian Empire by China's Qing Dynasty in the 1860s. Chinese vessels must get permission from the two neighbors if they hope to sail past China's Jilin province and down the final 9 miles to reach the Sea of Japan.

China seems to be pushing while Russia is busy in Europe. Although technically Putin established the precedent of turning over territory to China back in 2005.

Russia has little choice but to bow even lower. The sky's the limit for Xi. Will North Korea save Russia from such a difficult position by rejecting China's proposal? Russia would owe North Korea big time.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: I'm now on Substack, with The Dignified Rant: Evolved.