And Now For Something Completely Different

With great meming comes great responsibility. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The God of War Demands an Offering

The God of War is angry with America's loss of faith in the power of the big guns.

The Army realizes it needs artillery again:

The end of the Cold War hastened the decline. From 218 artillery battalions in 1989, the number of Regular Army, Reserve and National Guard units shrank to 141 by 1999. In the 2003 Iraq War, well-trained artillery crews were being used as infantry. 

However, the U.S. Army has belatedly realized that it needs its big guns. First, while Russia and China were upgrading their artillery, the U.S. spent the 2000s focused on counterinsurgency (COIN) against poorly-armed militants rather than a conflict against well-armed major powers.

Without air support, fire support would be scarce. The Air Force faces opposition in the air now, and never liked close air support anyway:

I'd be happy if the Army could spend money on other things. But the Army understands that the Air Force won't necessarily be where the Army needs it, when it needs it. Hence long-range fires. ...

[With] a return to great power threats and the elevation of conventional warfare, Air Force priorities are changing and the Army has little choice unless it wants to do without the missions the Air Force won't prioritize.

Seriously, the Air Force will float any BS notion to avoid providing close air support:

"I can’t predict the future, but I would bet the non-kinetic effects will reign supreme," [the Air Force chief of staff] said during the Dubai International Air Chiefs Conference. "Now we’re somewhere stuck in the thinking that mass needs to be physical. What if we did not have to produce sorties to achieve the same effect? What if a future small diameter bomb looks like ones and zeros?"

How long did the the Air Force chief of staff have to practice in the mirror to avoid peeing his pants with laughter as he presented that notion?

The other Army artillery problem is what the Russian guns can do.

Please adjust your pucker factor accordingly.

The Biggest Lie in a Forest of Lies?

Russia lies a lot. Quantity certainly has a quality all its own. But is Russia slipping in a really big nuclear lie in that forest of lies?

The Russians talk big. But reality isn't as impressive.

Russia has big plans to upgrade their ICBM force:

You see in the media multiple types of conventional war scenarios between Russia and Ukraine, so it is easy to forget that Russia has the latest nuclear-equipped intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM). These ICBMs back up anything Russia does militarily and are part of Vladimir Putin’s dream team of strategic weapons. The Kremlin continues to modernize its ICBMs. The fearsome RS-28 Sarmat is coming online and the increasingly lethal RS-24 Yars is already operational.

Russia announces lots of big plans. 

Super carriers.  

Stealth fighters.  

A super tank.  

But nothing much comes of them after the press releases or leaks fade. 

Understanding these conventional weapon boasts as misinformation explains why Russia relies on nukes. 

But what about their nukes? The Russians even boasted about a friggin' Kraken nuclear torpedo.

Are Russia's "big plans" for nukes another Potemkin project? 

[Russia's problems developing their long-range nuclear missiles] bolstered my impression that the Russians can't afford to maintain their huge nuclear arsenal. Honestly, that's been my impression given the state of the Russian military that has pockets of excellence and a slice of adequate military power resting on top of a far larger portion of their military that shouldn't be sent to control a Pussy Riot concert let alone combat.

The Russians have lied massively about their nukes (quoting a book's text):

At one point Khrushchev said that we built missiles like sausages. I said then, "How can you say that, since we have only two or three?" He said, "the important thing is to make the Americans believe that. And that way we prevent an attack." And on those grounds our entire policy was based. We threatened with missiles we didn't have. That happened in the Suez crisis, and the Iraqi crisis.

So loud strategic nuclear weapons boasts are suspect. I worry more about what Russia is completely silent on.

Russia does have a broader problem on truth. Is their nuclear arsenal really an isolated pocket of military excellence?

Allah Works in Mysterious Ways

Iran's mullah regime is having problems paying for its imperial ambitions. Will the Biden administration revive Iran's power?

The Axis of Resistance running on empty. Lack of money from sanctions, discontent at home, and the lack of a competent replacement for Soleimani have been massive road blocks for Iran's campaigns in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Gaza, Afghanistan, and Yemen, among other targets.

The bottom line?

All this does not mean the regime has abandoned or archived its hopes of a Shia empire in the Middle East. The strategy is alive in the minds of its leaders, especially the paramount leader, Ali Khamenei. For now, the regime must watch its steps. Its hope of reviving the dream of a Shia empire depends on another pact with the West — and an indulgent one that will impose no restrictions on its regional and ballistic policies.

The mullahs are well aware that the Democrats are eager to save Iran. They just need to wait for the Biden administration to up the bribes enough for Iran to pretend to renounce nuclear missiles:

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi said Tuesday an agreement with the United States over its nuclear deal with world powers is possible if sanctions on Iran are lifted, state TV reported.

Say, here's one gift to the mullahs:

The Treasury Department on January 6 issued a special license to authorize the South Korean government to pay $63 million that it owed to the Entekhab Group, an Iranian consumer electronics company. However, a closer look at the Iranian counterparty shows potential connections to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a military force that Washington has sanctioned due to its terrorism, human rights abuses, and nuclear proliferation.

Oh.

And Iran will count on the Revolutionary Guards to keep their people in line until economic relief arrives.

Why on Earth is Biden so eager to revive the absolutely horrible 2015 nuclear deal? Does he literally forget the details? Surely, you remember the optimistic hope that Obama had (quoting an article)? 

President Barack Obama has spoken of his ambition to bring Iran in from the cold, saying the long-time US foe could be “a very successful regional power” if it agrees to a deal over its nuclear programme. ...

“There's incredible talent and resources and sophistication inside of Iran, and it would be a very successful regional power that was also abiding by international norms and international rules, and that would be good for everybody,” Mr Obama said.

And what it led America to ignore?

No wonder the Iranians are ready to talk directly to the Americans. Question: if the 2015 deal stopped Iran's nuclear weapons drive--which Iran denies ever having--how is Iran now "fast-tracking its advance toward becoming a possessor of nuclear weapons"?

Do not become confused. The 2015 deal protected Iran's path to nuclear weapons:

I will say that it annoys me that Democrats claim that the awful Iran nuclear deal prevented Iran from going nuclear and that pulling out of the deal allows Iran to go nuclear. 

In fact, the deal expired in stages and after 15 years of shielding Iran from attack, enabling Iranian cheating by giving Iran benefits up front and caving in to Iranian threats to leave the deal if called on their cheating. The incentives to ignore cheating was clear. And the deal actually helped Iran with basic nuclear technology, as I noted when I first looked at the nuclear deal[.]

The mullahs believe Allah is on their side. I don't know about that. But Democrats sure are.

Cyberbooters Just Got Serious

A man's cyberattack on North Korea is kind of funny. And absolutely scary.

Well that's awkward:

[In late January], observers of North Korea's strange and tightly restricted corner of the internet began to notice that the country seemed to be dealing with some serious connectivity problems. On several different days, practically all of its websites—the notoriously isolated nation only has a few dozen—intermittently dropped offline en masse, from the booking site for its Air Koryo airline to Naenara, a page that serves as the official portal for dictator Kim Jong-un's government. At least one of the central routers that allow access to the country's networks appeared at one point to be paralyzed, crippling the Hermit Kingdom's digital connections to the outside world. 

And what state's cyber warriors took down North Korea's Internet?

But responsibility for North Korea's ongoing internet outages doesn't lie with US Cyber Command or any other state-sponsored hacking agency. In fact, it was the work of one American man in a T-shirt, pajama pants, and slippers, sitting in his living room night after night, watching Alien movies and eating spicy corn snacks—and periodically walking over to his home office to check on the progress of the programs he was running to disrupt the internet of an entire country.

Huh. 

As I wrote in 2006:

I have noted that the many private individuals who have hacker skills could in effect conduct their own foreign adventures while in their pajamas. These cyberbooters could attack nations they identify as enemies for fun or profit much like 19th century freebooters played in Central America or in the manner that the Irish in America plotted to take over British Canada.

I figured we'd get more of this as time passes.

But could this ability actually drag countries into war?

When the target is our enemy like Serbia was in 1999, it is no big deal. Nor is it vital to address when the attacks were merely cyber spray painting as it was in 1999. But as networks become more vital to economies and militaries, as tools to damage those networks get better and actually replicate the effects of conventional attack, and as civilians gain the skill and tools to actually damage networks seriously, what does our government do?

Will these computer users be a cyber militia to help defend our nation? Or will they be cyber freebooters carrying out independent foreign policies and even waging a kind of war contrary to US foreign policy?  

Back to the hacker in the original article:

And what's the final goal of his cyberattacks on that totalitarian government's internet infrastructure? When will he end them? 

“Regime change. No, I'm just kidding,” P4x says with a laugh. “I just want to prove a point. I want that point to be very squarely proven before I stop.”

Kidding. For now.

When will private entities organize their own kinetic foreign policy via the Internet? I've complained that "ending" a war is futile if the enemy doesn't cooperate. How much more hollow is that belief if enough of your own people disagree?

How many governments could be vulnerable to a crowd-funded private war?

UPDATE: Of course, North Korea can always go kinetic on the man if it finds out where he lives. 

I'm just saying P4x didn't kill himself.

We Don't Even Notice the Crazy Any More

It's a strange world we live in. 

Of an unspecified virus of unknown origin, two years long and still going.

Of terror attacks by mysteriously undefined people who for some reason yell "Allahu Akbar!" 

Of an insurrection without firearms. 

Of mostly peaceful protests that leave more than a score dead and billions of dollars in property damage. 

Of acting as if Twitter reflects more than the views of a tiny minority of the most extreme Americans.

Of anti-racists who say minorities are forever incapable of success and who must be segregated with their own kind for their own good. 

Of believing enforcing criminal laws creates criminals. 

Of dog whistles signaling the start of concentration camps. 

Of thinking securing our voting right is the same as suppressing voters.

Of calling concerned parents domestic terrorists. 

Of identifying as whatever you want and insisting others must go along and affirm you. 

Of comedians who work for clapter instead of laughter. 

Of bending to tiny but vocal minorities who are offended--or pretend to be offended.

Of mocking questioning science, as if that isn't the process that defines it. 

Of American flag officers believing that wokeness is a substitute for victory.

Of actually believing milk is murder. 

Of woke M & Ms.

It's madness. And I can't explain it. Unless it is all a plot to drive us to the Metaverse.

But neither will I go along with it.

Weekend Data Dump

Are several thousand Chinese precision ballistic missiles decisive against Taiwan when you consider that America dropped nearly 20,000 precision weapons during the overland invasion of Iraq in 2003?

Westerners are volunteering to fight for Ukraine against the Russian threat. Westerners went to Finland to fight Russia. And before Pearl Harbor, Americans went to Canada to enlist to fight Hitler.

By then, NASA will still be rooting out hate from its staff and shirt selections: "China, Russia to start building lunar research station by 2026[.]"

Lavrov ran rings around Secretary of State Kerry, so I know he's not this dense: "Russia's foreign minister claims that NATO wants to pull Ukraine into the alliance[.]" For 8 years, Russia has been pushing a once-reluctant Ukraine into NATO's arms. Strategery. 

Iran's air defenses suck.

I have zero sympathy for Russian complaints that NATO could be a few hundred miles from Moscow if Ukraine joins the alliance. During the Cold War, massed Soviet armor in East Germany was a hundred miles from the Rhine River.

Liberals have let the woke drag them to the crazy left. The woke made "fiscally conservative but socially liberal" obsolete. That latter ship of tolerance for differences sailed. Just say you are "conservative" if you value tolerance. Or perhaps "fiscally conservative and socially libertarian."

FFS, what is wrong with the left and their media allies (via Instapundit)? Now they see Nazis in the Canadian trucker protest.

Ah, the sainted international community: "The United Nations' Conference on Disarmament will turn the reigns over to the Democratic People's Republic of Korea for four weeks in 2022 – listing them as an upcoming rotational chair for the forum."

I don't think taxes should be spent on bike paths or other "green" so-called transportation projects until every bridge is safely maintained. Unless we require hefty bike registration fees to build and maintain that waste of road space and money that bike paths represent.

A reminder of what the left did in 2020 to elect Biden.

Booger. 😢

During the Ukraine crisis, Macron pushes for an EU army. How convenient for him.

Israel struck at Iran's weapons pipeline in Syria that feeds Iran's proxy Hezbollah.

Guam is going to be quite the missile magnet, isn't it? "North Korea on Monday confirmed that it test-launched an intermediate-range ballistic missile on Sunday that is capable of reaching Guam."

Exactly: "Calls for a neutral Ukraine typically invoke the theory of 'realism' in international affairs. However, it is simply not realistic to believe that neutrality would appease Putin or prevent further Russian aggression against Ukraine and beyond." Russian paranoia won't be reduced no matter how far west Russia pushes its border.

Tar. Feathers. Rabid hungry dogs. Fire ants. Anything else appropriate? How long will Seattle voters approve of this nonsense?

LOL!

Raw politics disguised as racial wokeness. Content of character be damned. Tips to Instapundit.

In defense of the Marine LAW concept. The scale of Marines to be moved and their mission is fine for the Pacific. But the actual LAW proposal is bad. I have a much better approach. With a salvage option to achieve that. And an addition.

Exactly: "There is no credible Ukrainian threat towards Russia or its auxiliaries in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region. Nor is there any plausible NATO threat to Russia. Instead, Moscow’s complaints about supposed security threats are wholly mendacious and spurious." Putin lied. People have died. And will.

Via Instapundit: "American liberals are obsessed with finding ways to silence and censor their adversaries." These people worry me. It is a crime against language to think "liberal minded" is a synonym for "open minded." Will real liberals defeat the woke coup that speaks in their name?

When barbarians roam the countryside, trade is crippled. When one party considers the barbarians to be their street muscle, even giants like Amazon can't survive that. Tip to Instapundit.

I'd worry that corrupt interests will one day try to foist her on America as president. Mercifully, she got her dad's looks and her mom's political instincts.

Dungeon Devices, Inc.: Making the Agony of Defeat Affordable! Proud sponsor of the 2022 China Winter Olympics.

I'm worried: "A senior US official said Monday that time was running out for nuclear negotiations with Iran and urged Tehran to agree to direct talks to help forge a deal." Because the original was so good?

Those damned Chinese kids, these days. Don't get your hopes up: "I stopped worrying about younger generations years ago after I read complaints by the World War I veterans that the youngsters who we now call 'the greatest generation' couldn't possibly have the guts and hardiness to fight Hitler. Seriously people, your lawn will be just fine." On the other hand, China's young people have reasons to resist.

Couldn't happen to a more--as the kids say--"problematic" army with a UN seat country.

Iran certainly can produce ballistic missiles.

Analyzing the options for a Russia-Ukraine war.

A view from Ukraine: Ukraine is the least of Russia's problems. And Putin's focus on Ukraine could be his undoing. That's certainly my view. A major, sustained war will expose how much Putin is bluffing. To be fair, the Fuck-Up Fairy does live in Russia now.

So much for Putin's constant whining: "NATO activity in the Black Sea region has become less frequent since Moscow’s takeover of the Crimean Peninsula nearly eight years ago[.]" I'm not bothered. The ships will come after the land-based turkey shoot.

A microcosm of Russia's counter-productive threats "designed" to attract Ukraine. How Westerners see genius when they look at the wreckage of Putin's policy to promote Russian security in the west is beyond me. Putin's appeasement of China inflicted quite the collateral damage.

FFS. A battlefield internet that is not robust and secure is worse than no battlefield internet at all.

I saw a video about Ukrainian school kids being prepared in case Russia invades. Including mine awareness. Meanwhile, American kids are told that "wrong" pronouns are a threat.

Remember, just because Russia has troops massed from Belarus to Crimea around Ukraine's borders doesn't mean all of them invade. Most may be for defensive purposes or to pin the Ukrainian troops in place while the main effort goes in on a narrow front.

How Idiocracy starts.  Morons churning out more morons. Tip to Instapundit.

No! Way!

One problem we see again and again that has fractured our country is the ability of people to assume one sin is the forgivable exception to the character of a friend--but the damning tip of the sinful iceberg of a foe. All people are complicated. 

We're doomed, aren't we? Tip to Insanity Wrap.

When the leftist media approves of you, violence is just part of "fiery but mostly peaceful protests." If not, your actually peaceful protest has "non-violent dangers." A variation of the leftist obsession with "tomorrow's potential Islamophobia after today's bloody jihadi attack" thing.

Friends in need: "The Israeli Navy will take part in a massive American-led naval exercise [IMX], which kicked off on Monday, alongside dozens of other nations, [including Arab states.]" Well, if Iran wants to block Red Sea oil traffic from positions in Yemen, some practice is needed.

#WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings. Well, until Russians decide Putin is the source of their misery.

Putin tried to draw to an inside straight with his threats to Ukraine, but came up empty. What now? For Russia and for Putin.

Welp. Russia has the presidency of the UN Security Council for February. The sainted international community will be even more useless for protecting Ukraine. But I bet the Russians still bitch that a conspiracy gave them the shortest month.

Wait. This is so confusing. Jews and Asians, who excel in America, are "white-adjacent" according to the woke. So they are now part of the white supremacy class? I wonder what racial and religious group will be the last to get "promoted?" Sure looks like an open-door policy to me. Worst. racists. ever.

The woke horrified that the workers of the world have united--against them. Tip to Instapundit.

Situation Nigeria All F*cked Up.

Good plane. Bad salesman.

Sigh: "President Vladimir Putin accused the West of trying to draw Russia into a war[.]" Just. Stop: "What? No, no. You are mistaken. We are not invading anyone. Why would you say that? Don't you like us? Are you plotting against us? In fact, you are invading. Why are you invading!?"

Americans are losing confidence in our officers: "The military needs to make the necessary course corrections to address this situation or be prepared to endure the consequences."  Indeed.

An American destroyer, along with other NATO ships, is sailing for the Mediterranean Sea with a French carrier task force.

An American show of support for the UAE in the face of Iran's proxy war on the UAE.

At the intersection of collusion and corruption.

Laser air defense for Israel (tip to Instapundit). Well that solves the major Iron Dome weakness.

The presence of a Confederate flag--if true and if brought by an actual protester--invalidates the Canadian truckers vaccine mandate protest? But the presence of actual communist organizers for anti-Iraq War and Occupy Wall Street protests didn't invalidate those? Now I understand the rules.

But I'm told that this problem is "transitory."

Still hoping justice delayed won't be justice denied.

Is firing Whoopi Goldberg the right response to her admittedly nutty statements? No. But until the cancel torpedo circles back to sink more of the left's standard bearers we won't get consensus on how stupid and evil cancel culture is.

Let's go, Justin!

Anatomy of a clusterfuck (via Treacher). And then the Biden administration tried to conceal its failure by scooping up random nearby Afghans to pad the numbers and claim mission accomplished.

A generation of retro nuts in Russia need to pass from the scene before Russia has a chance of joining the West.

Coups in Africa shouldn't be the result of people's loss of faith in democracy to cope with jihadi terrorism, but of corruption's inability to cope.

A small number of American troops will deploy to eastern NATO countries to reassure our allies during the Ukraine crisis. Most significant is the deployment of elements of the XVIII Airborne Corps' headquarters. V Corps forward elements are already in Poland. That's the command and control for a warfighting force.

Canada's trucker protest seems to be having a good effect. Via Instapundit.

We'll see if the Russians stay: "Russia has de facto 'occupied' its neighbour Belarus, MEPs have warned, even as the world's attention focuses on Ukraine." The Anschluss already seems complete.

Let's go, Justin. I used to think Prime Minister Zoolander was a joke. But he actually despises his own people.

China won't collapse but it might stagnate. Indeed, because of demographics their economy might stagnate before surpassing America as I've expected. And the CCP might not survive that. Could China fragment? China's internal future is unclear, but China clearly threatens the West and freedom.

Much like the continued production of F-15s, I'm happy to have F-16s that continue to be produced and older ones put in storage in case we need to replace losses in a major war.

Hmmm: "The [Russian] redeployments and military exercises that are taking place today are intended mostly to work out the logistics between various military districts located in different parts of the country, as well as to deploy and manage the troops in case of a major military campaign on the continent." Is the real exercise the return of forces to the Far East rather than the movement to western Russia that everyone focuses on? But I admit that I'm predisposed to seeing things this way.

Biden didn't think Afghanistan would collapse. My early mistake in thinking the Afghanistan government and military might survive our withdrawal was my belief that given what happened between 2011 and 2014 in Iraq that it was inconceivable that Biden would fail to support Afghanistan. The inconceivable happened. My sparse hopes faded as it became clear we chose defeat.

The amazing things that "China's influence, infiltration and espionage operations" can buy in America.

Modernizing the Russian military, incomplete as it is, requires money that Russia may not have to maintain and modernize it. Which will strain the financial resources of Russia. And interestingly, Russia's leaders fear that higher quality officers pose a threat to the government. 

Recalling the Obama-era 2009-2014 "reset" with Russia. Democrats had a long history of appeasing the Soviets. So that was natural. What was unnatural was the sudden conversion of Democrats to hating Russia and seeing fantasy "Russian collusion" under every Republican bed.

I will concede it is better than Hunter's "art". Tip to The Morning Briefing.

The war on terror isn't over: "The leader of the violent Islamic State group was killed, blowing himself and members of his family up, during an overnight raid carried out by U.S. special operations forces in northwestern Syria[.]" Good. But I remember when killing a terrorist leader outraged Democrats.

No! Way! Tip to Instapundit.

I miss the days when we mocked the creaking pre-corpses that led the Soviet Union. Tip to Instapundit.

Israel and Bahrain link arms to oppose Iran. 

It was bad enough when leftists had to fake right-wing hate crimes. Now they import aliens to do the job Americans won't do: "A man arrested last week for vandalizing Washington's Union Station with swastika symbols is a Mexican citizen with a 15-year criminal history who has been deported twice but still does not meet Biden administration standards for arrest or removal." Via Treacher.

For more regular illegal migrant border movements, KamalaLax! Don't let irregular migration slow you down.

I found John Kirby insufferable as a State Department spokesman. I've been pleasantly surprised with him at DOD. All I'm saying is that Ned Price might not be the lying moron he appears to be.

The U. S. Air Force wants pooled African airlift to lift the duties from the Air Force. 

Hopefully the Army won't discharge soldiers for wearing their fleece jacket improperly.

Well, the Turks realize that they like having Russia farther from their border.

Details on the American raid that killed ISIL leader Abu Ibrahim al Hashimi al Qurayshi. It's a good day when there is another good jihadi. Delta Force carried out the raid. I assumed that. Syria seems to be their area of responsibility.

Reset to appeal to Gulf Arab states already warming ties with Israel? "Turkey’s and Israel’s foreign ministers spoke to one another over the phone for the first time in 13 years. The subject of the icebreaking call? The Turkish Foreign Minister learned the Israeli Foreign Minister had contracted Covid-19, so he called and told him to get well soon. Stay tuned."

An America "Speaker" told Americans to shut up while in China. She at least admits the CCP is "ruthless," so why let Americans go there?

Battling Iranian smugglers.

Earth has a trailer. Neat. Via Instapundit.

I'm no expert, but it seems as if general lockdowns can work to slow the spread of a virus. The real question is whether the collateral damage makes any gains worthwhile. For me, a short one to "bend the curve" was defensible. After that? Nope.

The SM-6 could intercept hypersonic missiles. 

China has not given Russia a "blank check" for its threats against Ukraine. Nor has China prepared to invade Taiwan. I wouldn't rule out Pratas Island as a target.

To be fair, AOC has the intellectual heft of a mossy rock. 

The Demomediacrat Party.

To be fair, the Biden administration could be lying as well as the Russians who will make stuff up. I am saddened that the right has adopted the "we were lied into the Iraq war" lie. You want to talk lies? Fine. We had many reasons to defeat Saddam.

Democrats don't even like blue collar people. Democrats just want them to be props to be saved by upper class woke policies from what the left sees as their evil nature.

I am shocked. I assumed Democrats would shovel taxpayer money at them. I paid my loans and worked to minimize them. I saved for my children. Rescuing all those morons from 6-figure college debts is a giant middle finger responsible people. That should have ruled it out from the start. Tip to Instapundit.

The Navy wants to build at least two of the proven Burke-class destroyers per year while it hopefully doesn't ef up the design of a replacement.

Army prepositioned stocks in Europe. No details. But it is a shadow of its Cold War status. We need a robust REFORPOL now. We've only made a start.

France to sell Romania four corvettes and update two frigates.

Mini proxy arms race in the Balkans. Serbia has chosen ... poorly.

If Russia ultimately backs down over Ukraine because its military options are poor for what would result, will--as I wondered a couple months ago--this be the opportunity to bring Russia in from the cold?

A pageant rather than a deployment for Ford's first trip outside the barn?

The January jobs report is good. Full stop. I'm happy Americans are getting back to work. Calling in sick has no effect on that.

I'm skeptical of Germany's commitment to NATO collective defense. But is it possible that Germany has a useful role of "good cop" in dealing with Russia? 

I think I love her:

Worse than a crime--a blunder.

Fueling two conflict regions: "Providing mercenaries in Libya's internal conflict has become the main source of revenue for armed groups from Sudan's own war-torn Darfur region[.]"

Say, I'm just wondering why Western leftist activists who profess to love "peace" aren't flocking to Ukraine to be human shields against Russian aggression? They've had plenty of time to organize and get there. I mean, they were really active before the Iraq War. I wonder what is different?

Appeasement 2.0 begins: "President Joe Biden's administration on Friday restored sanctions waivers to Iran to allow international nuclear cooperation projects, as indirect American-Iranian talks on reviving the 2015 international nuclear deal with Tehran enter the final stretch." Iran expects much more.

Fuck the China Olympics. People going there or broadcasting this propaganda exercise should be ashamed. Nothing to see. Move along.

Trudeau seems eager to go to war against his own people. What is wrong with Canada?

Hahahaha!

Another group exposing itself as a "Victim Class" Auxiliary of the Democratic Party.

How close are the Russians and Chinese?  I say each wants the other to go to war with America. And ultimately Russia has far more to worry about from China than from NATO.

It doesn't make sense for Putin to risk war with NATO. But Lord knows what Putin, isolated in his bubble, will decide. But is Putin really immune to consequences from effing up from the criminal oligarch coalition he presides over?

Why Germany is meek in the face of Russian aggression: "Seen from Lower Saxony or Bavaria, military force is not just evil, it’s also useless." Allow me to apply the clue bat.

Could Russia launch an attack--for a small objective--on Ukraine during the Olympics; China refuses to let people attending the Olympics leave China "for their safety"; and China invades Taiwan's Pratas Island behind those hostages?

Chinese special forces and commandos. How much chaos would they create on Taiwan as China invades? 

THAAD.

If interest rises, our debt will skyrocket. Have a super sparkly day. Tip to Instapundit.

Strategypage discusses Russian threats to Ukraine and the Baltic region. Russia will not invade and Ukrainian ability to resist is good. Also, the Russian army isn't as good as it looks.

Scam. Via Instapundit. But those who donated only donated to feel good about themselves. Mission accomplished. Black Props Matter.

Russia began the crisis with NATO. So LOL: "Russia is labeling a U.S. assessment of a possible invasion of Ukraine as 'scaremongering,' as the Biden administration moves to bolster NATO forces in the region." That's an admission of failure.

Actual violence at Canadian trucker protest. So the totally peaceful protest is now "mostly peaceful". Trudeau and a compliant media put the figurative target on the protesters, right? That's how that works, I'm told. Tip to Instapundit.

Russia adds battalion tactical groups on Ukraine's borders. But don't over-hype the BTG. Although they are probably good for a punitive mission that destroys and withdraws.

I spent a career working with people from both parties. Democrats were as reasonable as others. I was feeling bad for speaking harshly of liberals and Democrats on TDR. At one time I spoke of "the Left" to distinguish the totalitarians from liberals or Democrats. My guilt for broadening my complaints is misplaced. The Left took control of liberals and the Democratic Party. It's not me. It's them.

And Now For Something Completely Different

I like big memes. And I can not lie. I’m hooked and I can’t stop meming.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The LCS is Dead. Long Live the APD

The Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) has failed. I believe it was a good concept as a reconfigurable ship. But the execution failed. The ships don't have the mission modules while the basic ship is prone to breakdowns and too expensive even without the added modules. What to do? I say have them move the Marines around the Pacific.

It's time to let the LCS go as a warship:

Surface navy leaders are turning to fleet commanders for ideas about how they want to use littoral combat ships, as the U.S. Navy tries to refine its operational concepts for these ships.

Figuring out what to do with the LCS is difficult given its many flaws in usage concept, design, and construction.

As the LCS is pushed aside, the Navy has proposed a Light Amphibious Warship (LAW) to move around small Marine teams armed with anti-ship missiles and other capabilities to battle the Chinese navy.

I'm not happy with the LAW concept:

I'm really not happy with how the proposed LAW ship class is unfolding. How is it possible to think a slow and unarmed vessel can survive, let alone complete their missions? If the threat environment is low enough to do both, the Navy (and Air Force) has already won control of the seas--or it is peacetime still.

So this proposal from the initial article is welcome:

Kitchener said he envisions a scenario where Marines might be moving about the First Island Chain in the Pacific in their future light amphibious warships (LAW), a platform still in the concept design phase, using their organic sensors and Naval Strike Missiles to take out enemy targets and then hurrying to a new location before they can be found.

This mission has been raised before. But now the Marines are getting farther along in being moved around.

I've long advocated an armed amphibious transport (APD) converted from warships. I modeled the proposal on the World War II use of old destroyers and destroyer escorts converted on a large scale to move company-sized ground elements around the Pacific. In Proceedings I advocated using old Perry-class frigates to test the concept prior to building purpose-built ships. But since then, we lost our supply of retired frigates, if memory serves me.

But the demise of the LCS is an opportunity not to completely waste the money already plowed into the ship class. Rather than simply mothball or scrap them, why not equip them to move the Marines around?

And supplement APDs with amphibious planes, while I'm at it.

The LCS failed as a warship. Let's make it an APD to excel for sea control in a completely different fashion. 

UPDATE: LOL!

The Marine Corps needs both the new Light Amphibious Warship and larger amphibious ships to achieve the future missions outlined in its new vision of expeditionary warfare, the Marine Corps Commandant said today.

It is just delusional to think there is enough money for that.

An Emperor Needs an Empire

Macron wants the European Union (EU) to have a role in the Ukraine crisis. How convenient.

No surprise here:

French President Emmanuel Macron called Wednesday on the European Union to quickly draw up a new security plan containing proposals to help ease tensions with Russia, as concern mounts that Russian President Vladimir Putin is planning an invasion of Ukraine.

The EU must in coming weeks “complete a European proposal building a new security and stability order," Macron said. "We should build it among Europeans, then share it with our allies in the framework of NATO, and then propose it for negotiation to Russia.”

France has the current term of rotating EU leadership.

Macron clearly wants the musical chairs game to end with him. Yet other Europeans are not on board:

[France] is willing to invest in its military and conduct combat operations in defense of its interests. But it also does little to engender trust with many of its fellow dual EU-NATO member allies who believe France’s goal is to be the leader of a unified European autonomous strategic arm, rather than a mere partner.

Yet the EU apparatchiki never want a crisis to go to waste if it can increase the EU's power. The EU is a proto-imperial power that dreams of getting rid of the prefix. If it screws America? Well that's a feature and not a bug:

For Macron, strategic autonomy means a Europe with its own place in the world and its own ability to shape world events, even if it that means pursuing a security pact with Russia as the U.S. pushes for sanctions.

But this is wrong:

Some proposals seem contradictory, such as the desire for a France that possesses “the ability to rank and have influence among other nations,” a country in which the French would be the “master of our own destiny,” yet also a country in which “our independent decision-making is fully compatible with our unwavering solidarity with our European partners.”

There is no contradiction. France's ambition for rank and influence requires "unwavering solidarity" from European provinces in an empire France runs. That is, "unquestioning obedience." Hence the lack of trust in the future provinces.

This ambition for a strong EU poses a threat to America if realized. 

Of course, Macron needs a compliant team of German oxen for his ambitions:

France believes that a Germany crippled by its obsession with not looking like panzer-armed Nazis will support France in dominating the European Union. Guilt-ridden Germany's economic brawn will be directed by France's cynical and nuanced intellect.

German economic muscle could overcome resistance to an imperial EU.

That initial article bolsters the case for the EU with this "success":

France and Germany’s efforts in 2015 helped end large-scale hostilities in eastern Ukraine but the conflict, which has left around 14,000 dead, has simmered.

That duo's efforts worked out great, eh?

Resolving the Ukraine crisis simply isn't Macron's objective. He'll crown himself Emperor of Europe--Macrown?--if he can. Or at least start the process for a future French emperor, which could be himself if reelected.

Russia's Major Malfunction

Russia does seem like it fears being ignored more than it fears foreign threats. Otherwise it wouldn't create foreign threats out of states--once in fear of the USSR--happy to ignore and leave Russia alone.

 

Russia's foreign minister, Lavrov: 

We do not want wars, but we will not allow our interests to be rudely attacked, we will not allow our interests to be ignored.

That's not crazy at all!

It is unfortunate that a country's self esteem issue becomes a European war crisis. The Russians truly fear being ignored:

The West would have been happy to ignore Russia and go on with our lives if Putin hadn't revived conflict in Europe.

And I suppose that is what really bothers Putin. He'd rather be feared than ignored. And if we hate him too? Well that's bonus ego stroking from his crazy train point of view.

Is Europe about to find its pet bunny boiling on the stove?

Or will this national pathology--or at least leadership malfunction--destroy Putin or Russia itself first?

Honestly, this level of crisis that Putin is stoking might just provoke enough powerful and ordinary Russians to wonder if Putin himself is the foreign plot to destroy Russia. Could Putin end up hanging from a lamp post by his heels before this is over?

I really feel sorry for Russians.

How many Russians want to be in the history book footnote describing how many Russians died during Putin's quest in Ukraine to earn that "the Great" modifier?

#WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings

UPDATE: Legacy building:

“If we have war with Ukraine and fratricidal death, then that will be all that [Putin] will be remembered for,” Remchukov, the [Moscow] newspaper editor, said. “He can’t not understand what a sin that would be.”

Focused Like a Laser On the Real Problems

What is the major malfunction of our senior Navy leadership?

Truly, I have lost confidence in the leadership abilities of our senior officers.

 

Our crews aren't trained to handle their ships at sea.

Our crews can't handle damage control in port.

Our shipbuilding industry can't build ships.

Our maintenance can't put ships back into the fight.

With all those problems, I have no idea if our Navy is capable of defending control of the seas:

Is the U.S. Navy ready for war? A new report prepared by Marine Lt. Gen. Robert Schmidle and Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery, both retired, for members of Congress paints a portrait of the Navy as an institution adrift. The report, reviewed exclusively by the Journal, concludes that the surface Navy is not focused on preparing for war and is weathering a crisis in leadership and culture.

But thank God our Navy leadership finally realizes there is a problem in the Navy, and is acting:

The US Navy said it was expanding it's eight-week boot camp program to include two more weeks of classes focusing on suicide prevention, sexual assault, hazing and racism. 

The change, the first major overhaul in nearly 20 years, comes as the Navy grapples with major shipboard issues over the years that include failures to address sexual assaults, fires and deadly collisions and the rise of extremism within the ranks. 

Wait. What?

What extremism in the ranks? It surely exists. Limit it. Punish it when acted on. Maintaining discipline and unit cohesion requires that. But don't make that the mission rather than one of many things needed to carry out the mission--fighting for sea control. The Union military that ended slavery in America had some extremists on racial issues in it, no? Fighting is the military's job. It is not a woke finishing school. That's what we have colleges for.

But I digress.

The Navy is crippling morale and effectiveness by making a small problem the crisis of the day to fix. I'm not saying those problems shouldn't be addressed. But it should not be the top priority while actual operational combat effectiveness has cratered even as China's naval power rises:

There is no sign that the armed services, or the defense establishment more broadly, are intellectually prepared for a Sino–American clash. 

A military organization’s first peacetime task is preparing for combat. Americans could be forgiven for forgetting this fact, given the state of our contemporary political debate, some of which has drawn the military into the political fray. ...

The U.S. military today is focused on budget battles, procurement issues, social engineering, and the permanent quest of large central military staffs to increase their hold on everything from strategy to force architecture. As important as these are, they distract from warfighting. The understanding that the U.S. is in an interwar period does not exist. The notion that the military’s first task is to defeat our increasingly powerful adversaries is a relic from the unexamined past. If it animated the U.S. high command, there would be unrelenting emphasis on selecting officers more like Grant than McClellan for promotion at all ranks.

What we should do but won't is revamp selection and training for our senior officers to reduce the climate of stupidity that cripples American warfighting abilities. 

Somehow our flag officers are convinced that there are many substitutes for victory. But the truth is that woke lips sink ships.

But no worries. A Navy with fewer suicides, sexual assaults, hazing, extremism (all extremism?), and racism (all racism?) will hold its head high as its woke sailors burn and drown in distant oceans as enemies crush them in battle.

That will count for something, right?

UPDATE: Fine:

The United States today suffers from a critical deficit in strategic thinking about the most consequential challenge of the current era: the rise of China and the threat it poses to U.S. interests in the western Pacific and beyond. Addressing that deficit is a matter of the utmost importance and urgency.

But without a fleet that can fight, the Navy is putting the cart in front of the horse.