Closing the Barn Door After the Strong Horse Escapes

After skedaddling from Afghanistan with nary a NATO consultation, the Biden administration is seeking alliance cooperation to cope with the fallout of the defeat. After failing to fight the jihadis "over there" we find we have to fight them "over here." 

So maybe remaining in Afghanistan to help our local allies fight and die (7,000 per year) to keep Afghanistan from being a terror having would have been a good idea:

Against the backdrop of the troop withdrawal from Afghanistan, the top U.S. military officer is meeting in Greece with NATO counterparts this weekend, hoping to forge more basing, intelligence sharing and other agreements to prevent terrorist groups from regrouping and threatening America and the region.

Army Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the meeting of NATO defense chiefs will focus in part on the way ahead now that all alliance troops have pulled out of Afghanistan and the Taliban are in control.

Milley, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and American intelligence officials have warned that al-Qaida or the Islamic State group could regenerate in Afghanistan and pose a threat to the United States in one year to two years.

Maybe--now stick with me because I'm just spitballing here--but maybe the Biden skedaddle debacle isn't the brilliant success that the Biden administration has tried to portray it.

The jihadi over-the-horizon threat to Europe is apparently far more potent than America's over-the-horizon threat to jihadis:

The Afghan man who was killed in a U.S. drone strike last month was an enthusiastic and beloved longtime employee at an American humanitarian organization, his colleagues say, painting a stark contrast to the Pentagon’s claims that he was an Islamic State group militant about to carry out an attack on American troops.  

I'm sure our NATO allies are thrilled that NATO has to make a greater effort in Europe to defend Europe from Islamist terrorism.

Whatevs. Who could have guessed that killing jihadis without local intelligence would be difficult?

Embrace the Chaos

I've long worried that the Army is too focused on top-down micro-managed control of a battle. We got away with that in the rapid armored offensive in Desert Storm against an inferior enemy and during slower paced counter-insurgency campaigns of the last two decades. In an era of great power conventional warfare, America can't afford that weakness. If we don't fix it, American forces could be defeated even as our senior leaders view PowerPoint presentations on how we will surely win.

The lawyers have too much power over American use of firepower. But that's just a symptom of the centralized warfighting America has gotten used to. Our doctrine calls for "mission command"--where junior officers understand the mission and the commanders intent, and have the authority to act to achieve both without direct orders. But we don't practice it. 

Instead of mission command we have, as the article is primarily focused on, an overly centralized decision-making process that evolved during the slow-paced COIN and counter-terrorism campaigns over the last two decades. Yes, I agree that it goes back farther than that. But to me it seems much worse now than during the Cold War. That tendency must be fought:

There is no shortage of talent in the US military. However – even the majority of officers who exemplify the boldness and aggression expected of our profession, are subsumed by a culture that encourages them to follow procedures and the letter of the law rather than their own experiential judgment, professional ethics, and a sound understanding of the balance between mission and risk.

Until the institution rewards behavior that aligns with its own doctrine, and sanctions that which does not, mission command will never gain traction in the US military. And that should matter a great deal to all of us – not just the doctrinal purists. But it will require a complete overhaul of selection, training, and personnel management to close the current gap. It will take cultural transformation.

While attending a conference in Quantico shortly before my retirement, I came across a rhetorical question scrawled on a white board. The author was anonymous, but his words continue to resonate: “Has there ever been a military leadership philosophy that has been so loudly lauded, so convincingly defined, so battle proven and so routinely unapplied as mission command?” Now is the time to reverse this trend.

The practice of denying lower-level commanders freedom of action within the concept of the operation and the commander's intent will lead to disaster against an enemy that doesn't cripple its own troops with that kind of control. 

Once upon a time we counted on that kind of centralized control by Soviet higher commands to allow our Army to fight and win outnumbered. Can our enemies today rely on our forces being crippled by the same thing?

This is separate from the decimation we need to inflict on our senior military leadership. But the decimation would help.

Do read it all.

Who Can Be Against Virtue and For Vice?

We begin to see the difference between not winning the Afghanistan war and losing the Afghanistan war. At least--so far--for people living in Afghanistan.

So, it's Taliban 1.0 after all:

Afghanistan's new Taliban rulers set up a ministry for the “propagation of virtue and the prevention of vice" in the building that once housed the Women's Affairs Ministry, escorting out World Bank staffers Saturday as part of the forced move.

It's the latest troubling sign that the Taliban are restricting women's rights as they settle into government, just a month since they overran the capital of Kabul. In their first period of rule in the 1990s, the Taliban had denied girls and women the right to education and barred them from public life.

Somebody should notify the Biden administration.

Explain to me again why American feminists aren't the most vicious, hard core anti-jihadis.

Like those Afghan women don't need help with virtue and vice, eh?

UPDATE: No! Way!

The Taliban hanged a dead body from a crane parked in a city square in Afghanistan on Saturday in a gruesome display that signaled the hard-line movement’s return to some of its brutal tactics of the past.

Probably just rogue elements of the new and improved Taliban. I mean, just "some" of their past brutal tactics are evident so far.

Seriously, Royal Navy?

The British see a future networked navy that does not rely on individual platforms? Have they looked at their existing navy?

I can't say I disagree with this:

The U.K. Royal Navy wants a future fleet with its sensors and weapons disaggregated and its ships flexible enough to change missions as needed, as the service acknowledges that traditional technology superiority may not be possible in the coming decades. ...

Rear Adm. James Parkin, Director Develop of the Royal Navy, said the “Navy of the Next” will derive its operational advantage from a system-of-systems approach that nets together disaggregated sensors, thinkers and shooters in a way that creates more persistent effects and less vulnerability to attack.

I wrote about that idea of shifting from platform-centric naval warfare to network-centric warfare a long time ago:

The end of the Cold War presents the United States with the opportunity and obligation to re-evaluate both strategy and forces. The debate over what the post-Cold War world means for American security and foreign policy has been vigorous. So too has the debate over the potential of the developing Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA). Adopting and implementing the naval application of the RMA, network-centric warfare (NCW), is a "fundamental shift from what we call platform-centric warfare[.]" Both the Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) and National Defense Panel (NDP) final report of 1997 endorsed NCW as the proper path for the Navy. Victory in warfare dominated by networks will in large measure depend on making strategic choices that fit with the new and changing system. 

The carrier, I wrote, needed to be phased out for sea control missions.

The British have actually focused even more on big carriers than America does:

If Britain is focusing their navy on supporting a single carrier strike group, and having problems even with that limited goal, is the Royal Navy vulnerable to being taken down with one good hit on the carrier at sea? 

 And the British carriers are just at the beginning of their service life.

This method of achieving disaggregated fighting, from that initial article, is interesting:

To do that, the Royal Navy will begin buying and testing Persistent Operational Deployment Systems (PODS), a similar idea to the U.S. Navy’s mission package concept.

“PODS are interchangeable modules that can be fitted to the surface fleet. Similar in design to a shipping container, the PODS create the idea of a ‘plug and play’ warship and will enable Royal Navy ships of all sizes to be more adaptable and versatile when deployed,” reads a Sept. 12 Royal Navy news release.

This is how I wanted to create modularized auxiliary cruisers, as I explored for the Army in "The AFRICOM Queen" in Military Review a number of years ago. As I noted, the concept can be broader for more traditional naval missions. 

PODS and not large carriers are the path to disaggregated naval warfare.

A Novel National Defense Strategy

Hot on the heels of losing a war with Azerbaijan badly, Armenia has decided to sue Azerbaijan.

Huh:

Armenia is taking its decades long territorial dispute with neighboring Azerbaijan — that erupted into armed conflict again last year — to the United Nations’ highest court.

Armenia filed a case at the International Court of Justice alleging breaches by Azerbaijan of an international convention that aims to eliminate racial discrimination, the court announced late Thursday.

Fingers crossed. If this works maybe Biden can drop papers on the Taliban.

 

Will Biden Save the Iranian Mullah Regime?

Will America save the mullah regime in Iran from its many troubles?

The Taliban victory in Afghanistan opens a new front against Iran. Iran is already busy in Yemen, Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq, where Iran supports fellow Shias. And now the prospect of the fanatical Sunni Taliban going to war against Afghanistan's Shia could stretch Iran's resources even more. 

Which is a problem: 

Economic conditions for most Iranians continue to get worse. Last month the (12-month average) inflation rate hit 45 percent and is a little worse in rural areas, where most of the religious dictatorship supporters live. The American trade and financial sanctions mean there are a lot fewer dollars in Iran and these are essential to pay for imports. The Iranian currency has been at record lows versus the U.S. dollar. ... The unemployment rate is twelve percent but the underemployment rate, because of firms shut down by quarantines, is much higher. Over half the population is visibly living below the poverty line. For more than a year a growing number of senior officials expressed fear this will spark another round of violent anti-government protests. Even government-controlled media is openly discussing this prospect.

Fortunately for the mullahs, the rigged election system put more fanatics in parliament. This makes it far less likely that the parliament will do something that requires the mullahs to veto bills that might be viewed as anti-mullah. Which angers all those people unhappy with mullah rule.

Still, the anger and unhappiness remains. And the economic problems remain unresolved.

Still, it buys time for the mullahs. Allah's protection for the mullahs might yet emerge given Democrats' unnatural love of the mullahs. 

UPDATE: Well of course he is willing:

Speaking at the [U.N.'s] headquarters in New York City, Mr Biden said that the US would return to “full compliance” with the deal negotiated during his previous stint in the White House, under former President Barack Obama.

You don't turn your back on your true love's most fervent desires. Don't forget how bad the deal is.

Is China Willing to Escalate at Sea?

Will China provoke an American defense of our territorial waters in order to pretend that is precedent for China defending its faux territorial waters in the South China Sea?

That could be interesting:

China threatened to send warships into U.S. territorial waters (within 22 kilometers of land) because an American destroyer conducted another FONOP (freedom of navigation operations) in the South China Sea today near an artificial island China insists is now part of China. On September 1^st China declared that its March 2021 law on access to the South China Sea was now in effect. The new law mandates foreign ships must register with China and obtain a permit before they enter the South China Sea. Those who fail to register would be subject to unspecified punishment.

American Coast Guard vessels and aircraft should prepare a warm welcome. The Navy and Air Force should be close at hand.

And close to China, American ships conducting FONOPs should have plenty of muscular overwatch. 

In case the Chinese try to pretend America defending territorial waters recognized by international law is the same as China defending its illegal claims to the majority of the South China Sea.

Quantity Has a Quality All It's Own

Is the Russia-Belarus relationship just more of the same?

I thought Russia managed to embrace Belarus more closely--perhaps decisively--earlier this year. 

But this author thinks it is more of the same and in fact Russia is too busy to try for more than the status quo:

Russia’s plate as concerns the post-Soviet space, in particular, is already full. The costs of its conflicts with the West and Ukraine are significant. Pro-Russian forces have difficulties recovering from continuous electoral defeats in Ukraine and Moldova. The Caucasus and Central Asia are increasingly turning into zones of instability. The U.S. withdrawal from and the expansion of the Taliban’s control in Afghanistan threaten the stability of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, while the domestic situation in Kyrgyzstan is troubling. The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is de-frozen and requires permanent involvement. In this situation, the Kremlin must tread carefully when considering whether to open yet another “front” in Belarus. Moscow should realize that any miscalculated move can stir a new crisis in the neighboring country with unpredictable consequences. Sticking to the status quo in such circumstances appears to be a much more rational strategy.

The list of concerns Russia faces certainly calls into question Putin's reputation as a master chess player. So good call on that. I'm not in awe of Putin's achievements.

The "too busy to achieve control of Belarus" angle is interesting. If NATO is truly the lethal threat Putin claims it is--SPOILER ALERT, NATO isn't although Russia needs to pretend it is--why would Russia let the stability of Tajikistan stay their hand in securing Belarus, which is quite possibly the most important territory in Europe today, if Russia got the opportunity?

But if this is an accurate sense of Russia's priorities, does it indicate that Putin wants to pivot to the east?

Still, just narrowly on Belarus, at what point does "just" more of the same kinds of links between weak Belarus and stronger Russia cross over into decisive control?

Undermining Norms and Institutions

Just who is undermining norms and institutions in America these days?

I'm not willing to assume General Milley actually called a Chinese general in the manner it has been described.

Mind you, I'm on record as saying Milley--and others--should be fired over the Afghanistan skedaddle debacle alone. 

If more is shown, we can talk court martial. But Bob Woodward is not a reliable source. I want corroboration. 

But Milley's protests that all is normal doesn't ring true.

Remember, members of the military have an obligation to obey only lawful orders. Ordering a war against China out of the blue--even if our military could launch a war from a standing start, which it can't--does not sound like a lawful order. Our officers could simply refuse to obey, saying they need proof of the lawful nature of the order. If that request results in "do it anyway", the officers could publicly resign over the issue rather than carry out the order. 

Which is why I was never worried about the unhinged Pelosi fear (unless it was just staged for political effect) that Trump might order a nuclear strike in his last days. That's not how it works. Or how it should work. 

Nor did Trump establish a record for wanting to wage war during his term of office. 

What's that reason often given for removing a commander even without a crime? "Loss of confidence in" in the officer's ability to lead. That's it. I've lost my confidence in Milley's ability to lead.

What is more worrisome about the Milley Affair is the continuing demonization of conservatives--whose major demand is to be left alone--as a threat to American democracy. The evidence points to the left with its addiction to coercive federal power as the guilty power. 

Democrats are defending what Milley did. For God's sake people, just who is destroying our norms and institutions?!

Have We Reached Rock Bottom?

If the Afghanistan skedaddle debacle doesn't convince America to forge a real military with real leaders, what scale of defeat is necessary?

 We should be very worried about our military (tip to Instapundit):

[Americans] are subjected to stories about how the military is making “diversity” rather than military effectiveness its primary goal. Or stressing “climate change.” They rightly wonder if there might be some connection between the Pentagon’s focus on such fads and the lack of military success in recent years. Does the Pentagon even care about military success? If it doesn’t, it should. Success on the battlefield is the only justification for a military. ...

The U.S. military is at a crossroads. Its leadership must validate the trust and respect in which it is held by the American people. It must confirm that it is the profession that it claims to be, rather than just another self-interested bureaucracy. It must demonstrate that it is an organization committed to success on the battlefield and not a laboratory for social change.  

So far our troops our fine. But our senior military leadership has become indistinguishable from its civilian woke counterparts, save for chests full of mostly bullshit medals.

But our enlisted troops and maneuver unit commanders will not continue to make the sacrifices they make for long if this keeps up.

What defeat will shake us from our woke stupor?

Have a super sparkly day.

Weekend Data Dump

Russia tries to build heavy urban combat robots. The Russians are including robots in their Zapad-2021 military exercises that loom over the Baltic NATO states.

I did not fly my American flag on 9/11. I never flew it at half-staff in remembrance as the day requires. I flew it full-staff as a reminder that we are at war with barbarian jihadi scum. Our completely unnecessary defeat in Afghanistan ended our war. So I won't fly it on 9/11 any more. I may fly it on a to-be-determined date in the future when the jihadis hit us again at home and revive our will to resist and win.

Fun with numbers: "EU (European Union) aid for the West Bank Palestinians is again in danger of being cut because the Palestinian government again tried to deceive EU donors that their $150 million donation was going to general welfare, not to reward and encourage Palestinians to carry out terrorist attacks against Israelis." The EU noticed a fund. The Palestinians eliminated the line item in their budget. But moved the money elsewhere. The EU noticed that, too. But I'm reasonably sure the EU is willing to pretend their demand is being met if the Palestinians would simply pretend more believably. And the money will continue to pay for terrorist attacks on Israelis.

A new engine option for the F-35 A and C models.

I supported Bush 43 through two terms of war against jihadis despite my horror at his domestic policies. I have the blogging receipts on that. When even his party turned on him. And then he craps all over those supporters by siding with the woke narrative of who is dividing America. Hey, I fucked up. I trusted him. I'm sure it's all on me. Tip to Instapundit.

Why yes, totally shocking: "The United Nations' human rights chief criticised on Monday the Taliban's human rights record since seizing power in Afghanistan, noting that stated commitments did not match realities on the ground such as the status of women."

Our meat sack president has lost his patience with the American people he is burdened with ruling: "Imagine if Trump had said his patience with the American people was wearing thin. Or if he’d threatened Democrat governors. (And by the way, what is Dementia Joe planning to do about the states with panic problems that have Democrat governors – Louisiana, North Carolina, Oregon?)" Via Instapundit.

In theory this is true: "Americans should build U.S. Navy ships in the United States[.]" The same was true of automobiles in the 1970s. Yet today's shipbuilders like 1970s automakers proved they could not build their products with enough quality and affordability to satisfy their customers. Americans needed cars. Japanese automakers did it better. And to compete American automakers had to greatly improve their quality. My hope is that foreign shipbuilding competition will have a similar effect on American shipbuilders who have proven that they can't build quality products under budget. Because the customers of the shipbuilders--ultimately all Americans--need high-quality products. The ships that protect us. And then there is the problem of Navy leadership.

I was mercifully free of Biden while I was on vacation. As I caught up, I lost any reservations of the inept but at least lucid Kamala Harris sitting at the Oval Office desk. Biden must go. I'll risk the fire.

Biden's woke purge of America's service academies. This will not end well for America or countries that rely on our military power.

What is with the constantly changing view? Is it trying to disorient us in order to distract us from the editing that made this pre-recorded Biden speech seem less like a hostage video? Tip to Legal Insurrection.

Dien Bien Phu and other people's money. And given that the French Foreign Legion had a lot of ex-German soldiers, other people's young men, too. I'm just relieved the Kabul airport perimeter didn't become Dien Bien Phu II.

I've noted that counter-terrorist strikes are difficult without boots on the ground to figure who to hit. We weren't even all the way out when we effed up big on the "figure out who to hit" part: (tip to Jim Treacher) "The final act of the U.S. war in Afghanistan was a drone strike in Kabul that killed 10 people. Our latest investigation shows how a man the military saw as an "imminent threat" and "ISIS facilitator" was actually an aid worker returning to his family[.]" How much worse will it get as time goes by? Assume pretty bad: "In every country where the U.S. has deployed elements of an over-the-horizon strategy, like in Yemen, Somalia, or Iraq and Syria, it's had an intelligence network, a nearby air base and some form of local partner on the ground." Tip to Instapundit.

Armenia, which has Russian troops on its soil for protection, is reaching out to Turkey and Georgia after losing big in a war with Azerbaijan. Well, Russia failed to protect Armenia. So perhaps this makes sense. Outreach to Georgia is an indirect outreach to America. After witnessing the Afghanistan skedaddle debacle, Armenia must be desperate. Does Russia try to retain Armenia as a client by upping its support against Azerbaijan? Or does Russia try to flip to Azerbaijan? Would Azerbaijan want a Russia patron given their success already without Russia?

Oh those wacky Iranian mullahs and their unique negotiating style! "The U.S. military struck down two Iranian drones attacking the Erbil airport in Kurdish-held Iraq on Saturday, defense officials said."

Some are more equal than others, comrades!

Ford sent me a survey four weeks after I took my car in for a blown transmission. It is under warranty so that's good. But the global chip shortage means it is still at the dealer waiting for one of those chips. The dealer has no idea when they might come in. And I'll have some other needed work done while the car is there. So I'm not mad at Ford for this. Stuff happens. Stuff that China causes happens. But having a survey sent to me oblivious that they still have my car annoyed me. It would be counter-productive to rate them highly under the circumstances, no? So I mentioned that in the survey after rating them low. I don't really rate them low, but maybe this gets their attention, eh? 

Turkey under pressure from refugees, Russia, and their own policies.

Twenty years ago the French said "we are all Americans, now" in response to the horrific 9/11 attacks. Now Americans aren't all Americans. And too many of us hate us.

Accidental LEMUR orbital reflectometry GPS jamming detection. Also, do cubesats make anti-satellite weapons pointless? When swarms can be launched, can anti-satellite weapons be affordably launched in the numbers needed to disable the cubesats? And even if that can be done, won't it just deny space access to everyone because of the debris?

Apparently Belarus is going to buy $1 billion worth of Russian weapons, featuring the S-400 air defense system. Air defense would enable a Russian road march across Belarus to reach NATO territory without being destroyed by a NATO aerial onslaught. In that post I noted Russia needed mobile air defenses to cross Belarus. But since the Anschluss I guess Russia can trust Belarus to shoot west rather than east.

One thing the Chinese and Russians might value from all the weapons we left in Afghanistan is the Apache helicopter [and sorry, but I completely brain locked and didn't link the article]. But the aircraft design is very old. I assume our foes have information on them already. Surely we didn't equip Afghanistan with the most modern versions that might have sensitive equipment that can be usefully examined. Am I right to assume that?

Will Biden face terror attacks on his watch because of his Afghanistan skedaddle debacle? And perhaps worse, will foreign states think they have a window of opportunity to exploit America's shaky reputation because of the debacle? I've mentioned that angle, in particular: "Our enemies see our Afghanistan retreat and defeat as a sign that America won't fight. Dangerous miscalculations can flow from that."

Old-style racists said that African Americans were inferior and incapable of competing with white people. It continues to astound me that the modern "educated" leftist woke say the same thing except that they blame white people for that inferiority. For God's sake, when is our culture going to realize this is just as racist? And perhaps more so because it has the nerve to claim it is pro-Black??!

Bachelor's degrees from most colleges and universities went from indicators that you think to mere credentials that falsely claim you can think. Some called the bachelor's degree the equivalent of a high school degree from decades ago, from the employer perspective--the minimum education to be considered. But things have gotten worse. The bachelor's degree may actually subtract value from the degree holder from the perspective of employers. That's effed up. And what happens when employers act on the latest trend? What happens to the many people who have faux credentials gained with massive student debt? That sounds like an ideal Antifa recruiting pool, to me. Tip to Instapundit.

What is Biden's major malfunction? Tip to The Morning Briefing.

Whistleblowers are only celebrated and given a media platform if they conform to liberal doctrine: "'Currently available evidence does not show the need for widespread use of booster vaccination," the pair, along with colleagues, conclude in the article. Even if there are benefits from boosters, the shots still carry risks, and any benefits "will not outweigh the benefits of providing initial protection to the unvaccinated,' [Gruber and Krause, with 16 international colleagues] write." Tip to Instapundit.

Well, as another repulsive Democratic hack once said, today that attitude of "They can call it whatever they want. Trump didn't win did he?" lives on.

I'm perfectly happy at the items our woke nutballs put in a new time capsule at the site of a removed Robert E. Lee statue. Future historians will marvel that new racists intent on ripping apart America replaced the old racists intent on ripping apart America. But at least Lee at his defeat decided that ripping America apart was no longer worth it. When do our woke come to that conclusion?

Well of course they do (via Instapundit): "It’s a tight race among “defund the police” Democrats in this year’s chutzpah Olympics, but New York representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and other House members of “the Squad” are well-positioned to take home the gold. Fully embracing the politics of “good for thee, but not for me,” AOC, Minnesota’s Ilhan Omar, Massachusetts’s Ayanna Pressley, and the newest Squad member, Missouri’s Cori Bush, are among the most vocal advocates for defunding — while also being, according to Federal Election Commission reports, among the biggest spenders on personal security."

 

I am totally against partitioning America. Not just "no"--"Hell no!" Our enemies would welcome it. And the red state versus blue state model is not descriptive of the reality on the ground within the states. The ethnic political cleansing as people moved to "their" part of America would be ugly and massive. We remained united when invaded in the War of 1812, we remained united despite southern secession, and we remained united despite the much greater urban political violence across America in the late 1960s and early 1970s than we experience today, Antifa and BLM notwithstanding. We'll get through this, too. Stop trying to make our enemies' job easier! As for America being  ungovernable because of its size? Only if you try to govern from Washington, D.C. Let the 50 states plus other territories do the heavy lifting for their people while the federal government sticks to truly national and foreign affairs. And restore U.S. senators to their roles as representatives of the states to enforce that division of responsibilities. Then we'd be perfectly governable with states returned to the laboratories of democracy model.

If we need Virginia-class subs in the enclosed Mediterranean to defeat the pathetic Russian squadron there, we're in deep trouble. NATO countries Spain, France, Italy, Greece, and (if we're lucky) Turkey should be able to handle the Russians without a single American asset. After reading about how awesome these subs are, I really don't get why we should need even one in the Mediterranean Sea.

Is Iran emboldened enough to strike Iranian Kurd rebels who shelter inside Iraq?

Russia won't risk the people voting the wrong way: "In the months before Sunday's parliamentary election in Russia, authorities unleashed an unprecedented crackdown on the opposition, making sure that the best-known and loudest Kremlin critics didn’t run."

I'm not going to jump on General Milley over some RUMINT despite my negative view of him now. If true, he deserves being busted to E-3 and a long stay at Hotel Leavenworth. Charges of treason cannot stick given that China is not a nation we are at war with. But I'll wait to see if the damning accusations gets any credible corroboration. That said, Milley deserves to be fired even if this accusation is false. I guess I've given up on him resigning to display some sense of honor and responsibility. His recent actions have permanently stained his record of past service. TDS tallies another victim.

China tried to strip Italy for parts but got caught. How long before much of the world finds the collateral damage is too high to justify trading with China?

Two American B-2 bombers trained with Norwegian F-35s. Which can't make Russia sleep well at night.

Thanks Biden! "Russia’s state-controlled gas giant said Friday it has completed the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to Germany, a contentious project that Ukraine and the United States have strongly opposed." Ah, our media. The United States strongly opposed the pipeline until Biden cleared the path to completion. 

This is not a scandal: "Up to one-half of the $14 trillion in Pentagon spending since the start of the global war on terror in 2001 has gone to defense contractors, according to a report released Monday." So about $70 billion per year was spent to sustain the war effort in the field. By spending money on contractors for logistics and some base support America avoided the long-term expense of expanding the military to carry out the needed functions. And once the fighting ends it avoids the problem of having excess troops that can risk hollowing out the military to support as Congress reduces funding. Obviously, like all federal spending, there is corruption involved. But the practice was necessary.

Stu from Australia sent me this link to a John Anderson interview with an Australian senator who is a former major general. I think America would defend Australia notwithstanding the Afghanistan disaster. The risk is that the Chinese will be convinced that America won't. Let's see if Australia increases their defense capabilities to cope with that risk. Although I think Molan is too pessimistic about Australia's current capabilities despite real problems with the navy and the small size of the army. The vitally important point that we should all have the damn confidence in our own worth is spot on. All the weapons in the world are worthless if we lack the confidence to use them in our defense. For God's sake, why do so many in the West fail to appreciate what we've made--especially in contrast to the non-West? Why do we hate us?!!

Taiwan held military exercises that included a simulated Chinese biochemical attack on a Taiwanese city.

I respect this analyst. But as I've mentioned before he has a devotion to aircraft carriers that I cannot fathom. The usefulness is real in power projection missions against weak powers unable to threaten the carriers. But defenders often conflate that mission with the sea control mission where the carrier is vulnerable. The huge carrier may indeed be hard to sink. But a mission kill is another issue altogether. I just don't think that super carriers--the ultimate weapon in platform-centric operations--have a sea control future in a network-centric world. The carriers would only have a role in sea control during a "pursuit phase" when the enemy fleet is broken; and in subsequent power projection missions. Is that worth the expense of building and defending carriers for their offensive punch? Maybe. But I'm sure that at some point the answer will be a clear "no".

Who am I to complain that California voters want to stick with Newsom and his woke policies? Enjoy! Exit question: Will African Americans really be fine with Democrats demonizing a Black man as an agent of white supremacy simply because Elder strayed from the Democratic plantation?

Well that's a new development, eh? "Four Chinese navy vessels were recently spotted operating in waters near Alaska's Aleutian Islands, the US Coast Guard said in a statement Monday."

I've long been annoyed with the strange insistence that Russia has created this diabolically clever new style of "hybrid" warfare: "Anything other than recognizing that Russia is simply pushing against weakness is just PowerPoint fodder and pointless articles about the subtle genius of Putin and his security apparatus that amounts to analysis paralysis." While that panty-flinging in the West seems to have mercifully abated, we can see the total debasement of the "hybrid" term to mean anything Russia does that we don't like: "The European Union will stand up to a 'hybrid attack' by Belarus using migration, the bloc's chief executive said, but stressed the union would remain vulnerable for as long as its 27 member countries remain divided on the hot-button issue." Ah, as long as the EU countries "remain divided" on the issue. That's the bloody giveaway about what the EU really values--control of Europe.

Reports of infighting (including actual brawling) among the Taliban victors is nothing to celebrate unless we begin the rollback to exploit the divisions while they matter. There was a lot of infighting and suffering in Russia after the Bolshevik revolution. Eventually the worst and most brutal faction won that free-for-all.

North Korea's missile sabre rattling is losing its power to intimidate as South Korea responds in kind. North Korea can't be confident. When massive human wave assaults supported by massive artillery was the threat, North Korea had some confidence. But in high-tech weaponry? Advantage: South Korea. North Korean elites shouldn't stand near windows if they start a war.

Irony alert: "The European Union's chief executive on Wednesday vowed no let-up in battles with Poland and Hungary over democratic standards, threatening to take more legal action and block off funds." The proto-imperial EU eager to erase the prefix has no credibility in fighting for democracy.

This should be interesting: "Full of merchant traffic and security threats, the densely packed waterways of the Red Sea, Arabian Sea and the Persian Gulf will be a testing ground for the Navy’s push to make unmanned systems a practical part of the fleet, service leaders said on Wednesday." How does an unmanned ship react to an Iranian boarding party? The unmanned vessels should have the ability to detonate. Perhaps Iran losing a boarding party will deter future efforts to take one of them.

The Biden administration continues to reward Iran for attacking an ally: "The U.S. has removed its most advanced missile defense system and Patriot batteries from Saudi Arabia in recent weeks, even as the kingdom faced continued air attacks from Yemen’s Houthi rebels, satellite photos analyzed by The Associated Press show." Why do Democrats love Iran's mullahs so much?

The strangely opaque origins of the Xi Jinping Flu Covid-19 virus that began in Wuhan, China, which by sheer happenstance has a Chinese biological agents laboratory that America helped fund.

Newsom won his recall election handily. Pity. Still, it is nice that California's very woke voters demonstrated that you can vote against a Black candidate on policy reasons. A lot of Republicans were accused of being deplorable racists for doing exactly that in 2008 and 2012, no?

 

Sure, for the moment: "Terror threats emanating from Somalia, Yemen, Syria and Iraq -- in particular ISIS -- pose a greater danger than those that might emerge from Afghanistan, Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines told the annual Intelligence and National Security Summit." After Biden lost the Afghanistan campaign, it will take some time for Afghanistan to regenerate terror threats. I mean, isn't that statement an admission that we in fact achieved our mission in Afghanistan until the skedaddle debacle?

An unmanned Navy ship fired a missile. Ranger seems like an unmanned version of the LCS which was also supposed to have modular payloads. Let's hope the concept is working better now. And let's hope the communications link is secure enough to work in combat.

Obama administration officials defend their Afghanistan skedaddle debacle clusterfuck in Congress.

The European Union does not give one single damn about having the military power to have strategic autonomy. Consider that when you read that the Biden Afghanistan skedaddle debacle has prompted such thinking: "The West's disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan has intensified in Europe a sense of insecurity regarding the future of NATO, and the transatlantic relationship more broadly. But whether anxiety will spur action remains far from certain." The EU doesn't give a damn about having military power. The only thing the EU wants is the authority to have strategic autonomy along with the ejection of America from Europe by defunding NATO. If the EU can do that, they go a long way toward erasing the prefix from their proto-imperial project.

Well, blaming the problem on global warming is certainly convenient: "'Rather than put forest management on war-time footing, Newsom in 2019 actually cut the budget for forest fire prevention, which resulted in a full halving of the forest area treated for fire in 2020, all while accusing his political opponents of climate denial, and suggesting that the deployment of weather-dependent renewable energy will somehow address the state’s high-intensity forest fires.' Extensive fires have also played a significant role in the state’s rolling blackouts." And if the people believe your false claim that you are helpless to combat the problem, making the fire problem worse makes people believe you even more.

I don't want to hear fantasies about magical abilities to fight terrorists in Afghanistan from over the horizon given the record already: "The Afghan man who was killed in a U.S. drone strike last month was an enthusiastic and beloved longtime employee at an American humanitarian organization, his colleagues say, painting a stark contrast to the Pentagon’s claims that he was an Islamic State group militant about to carry out an attack on American troops."

Do we know how the Xi Jinping Flu has affected China?

Iran is becoming odd man out in Syria: "In southern Syria (Daraa province) there was a little noticed (by Iranian media) incident t where Iranian forces were forced to leave the border area because of Russian and Syrian pressure. Russia and Syria have been seeking to get Iranian forces (Arab Shia wearing Syrian army uniforms) away from the Israeli border." Assad and Russia don't want Iran in Syria now that Assad is secure from the rebellion and jihadi invasion. Israel has long tolerated Assad as long as the Golan border is quiet. Israel has focused its air raids on Iranian targets in Syria. This is a big deal and could eventually lead to Assad being strong enough to eject Iran. Assad can see what Iran has done to Lebanon by having its own military force, Hezbollah, there. If Iran goes, how does America hold its position in eastern Syria? Especially if the Kurds then cut a deal with Assad? 

Hmmm: "According to Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon their Iranian sponsors believe now is the time for an all-out joint attack on Israel." If Iran pulls the trigger on its Arab cannon fodder, I'd expect a multi-division Israeli drive to the Bekaa Valley, especially since the Lebanese may be desperate enough to tolerate and perhaps welcome such an Israeli operation.

The blue lockdowns for the Xi Jinping Flu may inflict long-lasting collateral damage on blue cities: "Business Travel, Conventions, Office Occupancy Stuck in Collapse: Been so Long, People Forgot What Old Normal Was."

So the FBI ignored young women and girls being sexually abused--and actually shielded the rapist--in order to prove non-existent Trump-Russia collusion. America clearly needs to carry out a decimation of the ranks over there. But since the rulers agree with the priorities that isn't going to happen. 

I've read that Democrats in Colorado and New York will gerrymander Republicans into oblivion with their power to redistrict. It's funny that the media only call this power "gerrymandering" when Republicans have the power. And it is only when Republicans do it that the media calls for "reform".

I don't imagine North Korea has enough rail line or rail traffic to hide these rail-carried ballistic missiles long enough to really matter.

The Russians have dug their claws into Belarus a little deeper by the development of a "Russian-Belarusian joint military training center in Baranovichi airfield, near the capital of Minsk. The site is slated to focus on joint training of anti-aircraft and air-force units of both forces." This will help Russian ground force run the gauntlet of NATO air power during a Russian lunge west.

The Biden administration campaigned on the idea that Trump could not defeat the Xi Jinping Flu Covid-19 pandemic. Biden promised he would shut the virus down and not the economy. Given the failure of their big, adult, Science!-worshiping brains to do that, should we contemplate whether the Biden administration wants to defeat the pandemic?

Sneaky nukes? Maybe. But there are ways to compensate for detecting cruise missiles, especially in a small country like North Korea. And they are slower and easier to shoot down than ballistic missiles.

The "party of science" is killing science: "Science is dying; superstition disguised as morality is returning. And we’ll all soon become poorer, angrier and more divided." Funny that people willing to look back to 1619 as the faux origin of America lack any interest in looking back to 2019 for the origin of the pandemic we currently face. 

Well, I've certainly written a lot about Air Force efforts to kill the A-10: "You can’t have a superhero without a nemesis, and the beloved A-10 Thunderbolt II attack plane, which has saved the bacon of countless ground troops over its 45-year career, is no exception. The thing is, the A-10’s nemesis is the Air Force itself, and a new report reveals how hard the service has been working behind the scenes to starve the aircraft of replacement parts over the past 14 years." It isn't even the A-10 itself. The Air Force has a point that against peer enemies the plane has more problems after 40 years of air defense improvements. To me, the issue is whether the Army can trust the Air Force to prioritize close air support.

Chinese coast guard ships threw some elbows in the waters around Japan's Senkaku Islands.

The F-35 should be the foundation of our air power for a long time. Although I'm not convinced that having an alternate engine supplier is a bad idea.

The Global Posture Review and National Defense Strategy will come out to frame how our military should prepare to fight. My pucker factor is redlining. I fear global warming and "equity" will matter more for designing our military than strategy on how to fight actual enemies. We'll see if I'm way too pessimistic.

Sacrificial lamb or first link up the food chain? Tip to Instapundit.

The Chinese Communist Party is feeling confident abroad and anxious at home--over "sissy boys"? Let's hope the CCP doesn't travel to the intersection of irresistible force and immovable object.

More private space flight, please.

The Marines are moving forward with anti-ship missiles to directly assist the Navy. Now all the Marines need are the means to move small anti-ship units around the Pacific.

The Chinese are pressuring the North Koreans to bend the knee: "North Korean leader Kim Jong Un now appears to be following advice from China, although China has not resumed all aid shipments, especially desperately needed food. Until recently China regularly and often openly criticized Kim for not adopting economic and political policies that have worked in China. Kim is no longer denouncing or simply ignoring Chinese advice that would lead to a more open and free economy as well as a more rational spending policy." The North Koreans still want nukes. And when North Korea has nukes I assume some will be pointed at China.

If only America's enemies hated themselves as much as too many of our elites hate America. 

Media coverage of border mayhem drops 94% under Biden. Tip to Instapundit.

American forces in eastern Syria had an unauthorized close encounter with pro-Syrian forces a little over a year ago: "After the incident, Nicoson ordered two soldiers to delete video recordings of the unit’s actions at the checkpoint in an attempt to cover up any potential wrongdoing, the charge sheets said." Which raises the issue of how American troops can fight in a pervasive surveillance environment without unjust war crimes accusations. Whether this incident was good or bad is irrelevant to the question the incident raises. And there is the bigger question of what America is fighting for there.

Japan's ground forces are based with a focus on defending northern territory from Russians. Now that China rather than the USSR is the main threat, moving troops to southern islands, such as the Senkaku Islands, is important: "The Japan Ground Self-Defense Force on Wednesday started nationwide exercises involving all units for the first time in about 30 years in an attempt to boost deterrence and strengthen its capabilities amid China's ramped-up regional assertiveness."

China is a growing power but it has few friends and allies, making it difficult to claim a real global presence. China's "team of rivals" is a weak counterpart to America's many bonds of common interests.

Still Upper Volta with nukes. Maybe.

Attack in a Box. It's like an anti-tank airstrike the infantry can carry.

Send this Australian television commentator this device, stat!

The Axis of Weasels gets a new member: "Iran joined a rapidly expanding central Asian security body led by Russia and China on Friday, calling on the countries in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation to help it form a mechanism to avert sanctions imposed by the West." I give India a pass because it allows them to keep an eye on China and possibly split Russia from China.

This is a new arena for joint Israeli-Saudi operations given Iranian interest in Yemen and disrupting oil export routes in the Red Sea: "Israel’s navy has stepped up its activities in the Red Sea “exponentially” in the face of growing Iranian threats to Israeli shipping, the country’s just-retired navy commander said in an interview."

I don't understand the left-wing rage against the unvaccinated. I got vaccinated as soon as I could. But because I'm vaccinated I don't worry if people want to risk getting the Xi Jinping Flu. Why should I? The vaccines work. Is the left-wing rage at the unvaccinated based on the apparent inability of the left to accept that recovering from Covid-19 is even better protection than a vaccine? With a variant raging that is more contagious but far less deadly, isn't this just a different path to immunity? Why make this another point of division in America unless division is what you want? Related?

The Chinese will kill the planet if they aren't allowed to kill the Uighurs. Apparently the Chinese Communist Party sees Uighurs as a bigger threat than climate change. Why aren't gullible Westerners concluding that the far-sighted Chinese must not see global warming as an existential threat.

New strategy reading material for the American service academies revealed. Tip to Instapundit.

World aircraft carrier developments. I can't shake the feeling that such discussions are like discussing pre-dreadnought developments in 1914. At least for sea control in the near future.

The Chinese and French are quite mad about the America-Britain-Australia submarine pact. The French should be careful about how loudly they protest. After all, the Chinese are upset that Australia will have much better submarines than the French were going to provide. France might not want to highlight that.

The Army's 6.8mm Next Generation Squad Weapon. Complete with Dumb But Controlled firing: "No breakthrough new weapon is complete without including a computer. In the last few years computerized rifle scopes that could be used on any rifle to give troops or snipers a first round kill became available from an Israeli firm." I explored the implication in a USNI Blog post.

Yes:

The French say canceling the Australian sub purchase from France is a huge mistake: "Paris recalled its ambassadors to Australia and the United States on Friday to protest a deal among the United States, Australia and Britain to supply Australia with a fleet of at least eight nuclear-power submarines." France is all about business, as their willingness to trade with Saddam Hussein in the "oil for food" scandal showed. But I'm really not sure what the French are complaining about. I mean, no mean tweets!

The multi-war in Syria is simmering but not over: "An attack with explosive devices laid along a natural gas pipeline southeast of Syria's capital knocked out power in parts of the country before it was quickly restored, the electricity minister said Saturday."

The Ukrainians are disappointed that NATO is not eager to admit Ukraine any time soon. There are good reasons for this as painful as it is to say. Ukraine has not defeated corruption to make Ukraine able to stand up to Russia more effectively. And in a bigger picture, NATO membership is supposed to provide collective security. Yet Ukraine at war with Russia automatically becomes a pure consumer rather than a provider of alliance security. I don't think many in NATO are eager to risk war with Russia. But NATO needs to at least give Ukraine hope that it can eject Russia from the eastern Donbas as a first step to getting Crimea back. This is good: "Roughly 300 U.S. soldiers will join approximately 6,000 troops from 12 nations participating in an annual multinational training exercise in Ukraine later this month." It is a peacekeeping exercise, but this is useful if Ukraine retakes eastern Donbas.

Britain shouldn't have "snubbed" France with the Australian submarine+ deal? I see this as a little bonus British payback for France's role in making life Hell for Britain after the Brexit vote. And on policy, it promotes Global Britain.

Russia is beginning to deploy the new S-500 air defense system. It comes without the hyperbolic Putin statements, so I assume this weapon is real.

Disengaging from Somalia was a mistake. Pity this isn't among the many Trump decisions that Biden wants to reverse. Being there helped us kill more jihadis. Somalia has already shown us that over-the-horizon counter-terrorism without boots on the ground is very difficult. But we didn't apply that lesson to Afghanistan.

The 9-month battle for Mosul should dissuade the United States from clinging to mega-city infatuation. Cities should be avoided--not embraced.

And yet somehow Hillary Clinton isn't in prison: "It was only last October, for instance, that we learned that then-President Obama was briefed by his CIA director, John Brennan, on an intelligence report that Clinton planned to tie then-candidate Trump to Russia as 'a means of distracting the public from her use of a private email server.' That was on July 28, 2016 — three days before the Russia investigation was initiated." Tip to Instapundit.

This unattended artillery battalion doesn't speak well of Russia's ability to sustain a major military operation even just across their border: "The seemingly abandoned artillery battalion is probably one of the many victims of a shortage of Russian railroad flatcars. This shortage is made worse when the government carries out one of these mobilization exercises because the railroads are state-owned and run by a paramilitary organization that exists to follow orders instantly and without question. That does not always work, especially in peacetime when such mobilizations hurt the economy. Russia depends on the railroads because there are few highways."

Mission accomplished: "President Joe Biden goes before the United Nations this week eager to make the case for the world to act with haste against the coronavirus, climate change and human rights abuses." After his Afghanistan skedaddle debacle, I guess the threat of Islamist jihadi terror is going to be ignored. Until it can't be ignored, of course. And no worries about China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, I guess. Until we can't avoid worrying, naturally. Remember, when you retreat from enemies you can mistake the lack of enemy action as "peace" rather than the enemy just following and resetting to attack again.

Masturbation: international community version: "The United Nations Security Council on Friday authorized a six-month extension of the UN's political mission in Afghanistan." Well that's futile.

Run away! "President Joe Biden has fled Washington DC to hole up at his Delaware mansion for an extended weekend, even as multiple crises engulf his administration." As a point of order, it is America that is being engulfed by multiple crises. Biden will be just fine in his mansion.

Well, that's why we have a Space Force, I guess.

To be fair, Biden is well past his "Best by" date. For Pete's sake, America should be sniffing him to see if he's safe. Tip to Instapundit.

If this is a good idea, a great idea would be to simply get France to sell them to Taiwan. Tip to Instapundit.

I don't feel as focused in my TDR writing lately. A part is going on vacation and returning from it. That requires posting ahead more than I usually do. And getting out of the "krill flow" of news interrupts the process of gathering news and making sense of it. But it isn't just that. I've dealt with that many times over the years. I don't know what it is exactly this time. But I almost feel like I'm going through the motions. Yes, this summer has been ... eventful, I suppose you could say ... with many transitions. That hasn't helped. But I can cope and I will cope. That's what I do. A big part of it is that I feel let down by our military leadership. It isn't just losing the Afghanistan War, even though that hurts deeply. I expected more from our military leaders collectively. And they've let America down. Add that to our civilian ruling class that is governing like a clusterfuck is the planned outcome. And the pandemic with the refusal to see the Chinese Communist Party's authorship and the insane pandemic panic porn that Democrats are producing and consuming non-stop. The problems from abroad and inside are multiplying and I have little confidence our leaders can handle what we have to deal with now let alone what else might happen. I'm hoping it is just me. But maybe I just smell a grenade. I'm confident that in the long run America will recover. I just don't know if my life span--which I assume has many decades to go--reaches the long run. It is tough to write in my lanes when that kind of noise is going on around us. Let's see how it goes. Fingers crossed. And in the meantime, I'll see about focusing. Hopefully things will tighten up as new  posts go into the queue.

And Now For Something Completely Different

I say we take off and meme them from orbit. It's the only way to be sure.