The Winter War of 2022 Finds Out the Alternative to An Offer You Can't Refuse

Trump was patient with Putin and I believe attempted to ease his worries by being openly hostile to Zelensky. Putin has refused to accept a deal to end the war short of complete victory. And now he will find out what happens when you reject an offer you can't refuse.

Russia appears to be preparing for another Big Push. 

In the face of Putin's escalating war on Ukraine and refusal to seriously talk peace, Trump had been edging away from diplomacy to arming Ukraine to do what it can to defeat Russia. His announcement with NATO's Rutte last week was a turning point:

President Trump threatened Monday to increase economic pressure on Moscow if there is no peace deal with Ukraine in 50 days, underscoring his growing anger with Russian President Vladimir Putin as he outlined a deal to send weapons to Ukraine. ...

“We’ve made a deal today where we are going to be sending them weapons and they’re going to be paying for them,” Trump said, sitting next to NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte in the Oval Office. “We’re not buying it, but we will manufacture it, and they’re going to be paying for it.” 

Putin might have accepted such a deal at the end of 2022. But heavy losses since then may require Putin to demand more territory and better terms to justify those losses. And the second best option is continuing to fight so that the failure to gain enough to justify the losses is not ratified--which could be fatal to Putin's rule if not life. So a new deadline likely won't lead to a carrot-filled deal. But it will justify an American pivot to compelling Russia to end the war with sticks.

But we'll see if Putin gets the entire 50 days for anything but the added economic pressure. 

Despite all the panic about America abandoning Ukraine in 2025, I was not one of them despite wanting to defeat the Russians. As I wrote after the 2024 American election:

I firmly believe "ending" the Winter War of 2022 should not mean that Ukraine loses the war. The problem is whether preventing Ukraine from losing now with a deal actually secures Ukraine or simply provides a decent interval before Russia resumes the war in a better military position than Ukraine.

Basically, does Trump let Putin get away with pretending the war is ended without any withdrawal; or does Trump react by arming Ukraine to the teeth?

The former risks Russia resuming the war sooner rather than later, possibly against a Ukraine demoralized by the losses it suffered without reclaiming any land it has lost since 2014.

And if the latter, how is the aid structured to be transactional and beneficial to America as well as to Ukraine? By using frozen Russian assets in the West? By deals that are paid with loans (and let future leaders decide if and how the loans are repaid)? By deals paid for by Europeans unable to increase their own defense industry to replace some of our weapons and munitions? By getting percentages of economic assets or strategic materials inside Ukraine as payment for arms that Ukraine says it must have to win?

Face it, a lot of ways exist for arms to flow to Ukraine without it being "aid" on our financial ledger. Including a peace deal that "sells" Crimea to Russia--plus back rent--and uses frozen Russian assets to pay Ukraine a high price for the lost territory that Ukraine can use to rebuild Ukraine. 

Putin was unwilling to pretend a ceasefire-to reload was peace. Too many of his more militant and vocal supporters would have been too blind to see that reality. Which would have given Putin's rivals potential justification for taking action against Putin. So Putin has painted himself into a corner. Will Trump offer a way out to get peace sooner? Will Putin refuse to be rescued and compel Trump to pursue peace through Ukrainian victory?

We'll see what Ukraine can do if it gets an American license to kill. I have thoughts, to be sure. 

UPDATE (Monday): Related thoughts. 

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.  

In case you missed it on Substack: New Means for an Old Threat

In case you missed it on Substack: Apples, Oranges, and Mythical Damage Resilience

In case you missed it on Substack: The Nexus of Evil

In case you missed it on Substack: Arrogance 2.0

Up: "The U.S. Space Force is currently carrying out its largest exercise since being established, with a service-specific operation meant to see how it can handle complex conflicts in space." It isn't "complex" until SMOD is integrated. 

A British drone killed a jihadi leader in northwest Syria. Nice that their war on Islamist terrorists is still overseas.

Good: "Australia, Japan and the United States today signed an agreement to further enhance logistics interoperability among their maritime forces[.]" 

U.S. Pacific Fleet commander: "China has failed to intimidate rival claimant states into surrendering their sovereign interests in the disputed South China Sea despite its intensifying “bullying tactics[.]” 

The Navy received the last ship of the SINKEX class to be built. 

Iran's "token" missile attack on the American base in Qatar inflicted some damage on a secure communications system. Seems like a point of vulnerability we should address if an attack we expected did some damage.

Sure he has an option: "Russian leader Vladimir Putin remains defiant but he has few options when his troops run out of ammunition and replacement armored vehicles." His option is to accept land front lulls until his troops build up weapons, ammunition, and troops to launch a Big Push.  

BOOM: "China recently tested a 2 kg thermobaric explosive device. This weapon created a 1,000 degree Celsius fireball that lasted two seconds." 

Greece and Italy: "Don’t focus so much on Ukraine that you miss the severe threats to European security brewing in Libya." Sure, Russia is attacking Europe with migrants. And Turkey is a problem. But securing their southern border only requires the EU to keep the migrants out. See America's southern border. 

Sh*t got real: "A Philippine Coast Guard cutter intercepted a Chinese Navy spy ship within Manila’s western exclusive economic zone over the weekend." A PLAN warship escorted the spy ship. 

Interesting. But what kind of range and payload can a mosquito-sized drone possess?  Tip to Instapundit.

From the "Well, Duh" files: "[Pro-Iran 'widespread outcry'] was stoked by three radical organizations deeply connected to foreign regimes: the National Iranian-American Council or NIAC, the ANSWER Coalition, and — in the case of the protest in Washington, D.C. — the Manassas Mosque." 

I don't worry that the Aspen Institute doesn't reflect military values. But as long as the officers and officials sent to speak there embody military values, why not let DOD people speak there? Preaching to the choir is more fun but less useful.

Sh*t got real: "Casualty evacuation, frequently referred to as CASEVAC, is one of the most physically and mentally grueling tasks faced by military personnel." In the Guard, I was loaned for an Army Reserve medical unit's exercise with a local hospital. To this day I've never ridden inside a helicopter. 

Resistance is not futile: "The U.S. plans to fund and build a facility capable of hosting watercraft and assault boats on the western coast of Palawan in support of Manila’s operations into the disputed waters of the South China Sea, according to new documents." China wages a subliminal war there.

A bridge from Sicily to the "boot" may count toward NATO defense because: "Of the 5% percent of GDP target, NATO members agreed that 3.5% should be true defense spending while the remaining 1.5% could be made up of strategic infrastructure programs to strengthen national economies." See also Germany.

A whole lot as gone wrong if Taiwanese troops need to use the Taipei subways to maneuver. But that's the way to think about their problem.

A Mission from God: "Al-Shabab insurgents have seized the town of Tardo in Somalia's central Hiiran region, according to a military official." 

Clearly an Iranian OSHA violation.

Baby steps: "India recently ordered 26 French Rafale jets to use on their two aircraft carriers." Take your time. No rush.

The enemy of my enemy. Embracing Iranian nutballs is a dangerous security strategy to deal with Azerbaijan. 

Some supporters of Ukraine complain Trump's eventual decision to arm Ukraine took too long and harms Ukraine. I don't see that. Trump allowed arms approved by Biden right before leaving office to keep flowing to Ukraine. As far as I can see, Trump has not interrupted arms. Nor has he stopped intelligence. 

Defense of Japan 2025: "The paper pointed to Russia, China and North Korea as primary regional security threats."

The 25th Infantry Division is trading volume of fires to have longer range and precision. Hmmm.

Interesting: "Ukraine’s fleet of unmanned surface vessels is expanding with the emergence of a new, smaller type dedicated to riverine warfare for countering Russian presence in key waterways." Controlling a river might be useful.  

I've said a number of times that American military aid to Ukraine quietly flowed in 2025 under Trump. That is the case. Is it a coincidence that just as previously ordered aid is dwindling, Trump has resumed it in another form? Trump tried to use the aid inertia to convince Putin to trust us. Putin would not.

As Putin destroyed Russia's ground forces, weakened the air force, and abandoned the navy, his ability to defend Russia has been reduced to his winning personality and threatening nuclear war. Well at least there are nukes. Oh. 

Turkey's regional power push. It's a big region that is targeted. But what "power vacuum" is the author talking about? Has he not noticed American diplomatic and military actions?

If the EU agrees to higher tariffs with America than Britain negotiated, "it will be hard to argue that European unity has been a source of strength." Fascinating. The issue isn't economic but EU authority? Yes. Power to address a problem is always more important to the EU than solving the problem.

Interesting that Russia has alienated Armenia and Azerbaijan.  

Certainly suspicious. 

Israel also struck Damascus targets: "As of Wednesday afternoon, the IDF had undertaken 160 aerial attacks on Syrian regime forces in and around the vicinity of Sweida in southern Syria, where Israel says the regime's forces are slaughtering Syrian-Druze."

Commander of U.S. Army Europe and Africa: "'So if we look out for an air defense system or a long-range fires system, we want it to be one system, optionally manned,' Donahue said. 'We want to be able to take munitions from any country and shoot through that.”'"

Huh: "The German government this week notified Pentagon leaders of an interest to buy the U.S. Army’s Typhon missile launcher system, which can fire missiles with a range of 2,000 kilometers[.]" 

NATO's first regional defense plan, the Eastern Flank Deterrence Line, is for the priority Baltic states front. The article highlights taking down Kaliningrad and its A2/AD assets. Heartily endorsed.

The socialist bureaucrats prefer to skim money: "In 2014 India elected a new reform-minded government that was obsessed with making India less dependent on imported military technology. Increased efforts to develop domestic weapons development and production capability consistently failed."  

Maybe America can't impose democracy by gunpoint--not even Patton's Third Army. Well, it had a good run. Via Instapundit.

Eritrea seems to be undermining Ethiopia. No mention of any Egyptian involvement. Pomeranian grenadiers were unavailable for comment.

People are wrong to say Trump admires Putin. What I see is someone who wants to reduce tensions with a country whose only ample resources are nukes, paranoia, and a willingness to suffer enormous casualties. We're saying "good doggie" while reaching for a stick. But I worry we might give away too much. 

This is way out of my lane: "European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde declared that 'the dominant role of the US dollar… is no longer certain' and that it was time to launch the euro as a truly global currency." But I suspect this is EU wishcasting and not forecasting.

The U.S. is trying to spur shipbuilding competition to China. Tip to Instapundit.

 PANAMAX-Alpha Phase I.

The U.S. strike on Iran's nuke facilities only destroyed Fordow. CENTCOM wanted a several-week campaign. Well.

Not yet ... : "Ursula von der Leyen is, in effect, the uncrowned queen of the European Union. ... More than any other political figure, von der Leyen personifies the EU’s imperial ambitions and authoritarian instincts." The proto-empire has a proto-empress. Who knows who takes the crown?

Power: "In February, South Korea’s navy took a significant step, inaugurating a task fleet command at its Jeju naval base." It's been a long South Korean march to the seas.

Singapore special forces and a US Air Force RC-135W Rivet Joint debuted at Talisman Sabre exercises hosted by Australia. 

Fortunately, Switzerland is surrounded by NATO: "U.S. officials have told the Swiss government that Patriot air defense systems in the production pipeline for the alpine country would be diverted to help defend Ukraine[.]"

Bored Army National Guard and Marine troops in Los Angeles aren't bored because they weren't needed. They are bored because their presence worked. A lot were already released.

The Navy's next new warship--now with energy weapons!--is always outstanding in the planning phase. Then the F**k-Up Fairy gets to work.

Shooting down drones with a tank's main cannon? Well, Beehive rounds were used to counter the first generation Sagger anti-tank missiles (by throwing off the shooter's aim) that had to be flown into the target. Maybe a shell with a proximity fuse. It's a start.

I for one would like to punish the government officials who did Putin's dirty work to further divide Americans. Tip to Instapundit. 

And railroads: "A frequent target of Ukrainian attacks are bridges vital to the Russian movement of troops and supplies." Get back to me when the Ukrainians drop the Kerch Strait bridge. 

And this isn't an act of war ... how? Tip to Instapundit.

This validates the less-than-decisive results of our one-off raid on Iran: "President Trump, while preferring a diplomatic solution, did not object to Israel’s readiness to launch further strikes." 

Mark 48 heavy torpedo in a box. It would fit on small USVs and small warships. Come on! Take the next step and build ASuROC!

Maybe--I'm just spitballing here--admirals deserve to be fired given the Navy shipbuilding record: "This would remove experts intimately involved in designing, developing and acquiring new ships and submarines at a time when all of the service’s shipbuilding programs are facing significant delays."

True: "US warships fighting around the Middle East have been leaning hard on its best ballistic missile interceptors. That won't be sustainable in high-tempo combat operations that can fast consume key munitions, a top Navy admiral cautioned." Cheap incoming drones can be defeated by precise mass. 

It would be nice if China's military purges mean the PLA is less ready for war. Unless purging those officers got rid of obstacles to getting ready for war. And as the author notes, not being ready is no obstacle to going to war.

What power does Europe have? The problem is that Europe has the demographic, scientific, and economic potential to build a lot of military power under rulers so inclined. So Europe is an objective to prevent it from being a threat. We'd like it as an ally. But we cannot have it as an enemy.

Good: "Cuba is experiencing a national catastrophe, and the Cuban people are growing increasingly desperate." But the "international community" is more likely to try to save the regime. Stand back and let it die. 

It's a darn shame "cheese-eating surrender monkeys" went out of style. 

New Italian 120mm L55 tank gun. Does this have enough velocity to reduce the pressure to go to 130mm or 140mm? 

Preventing China from getting a technology edge relies less on obstructing their research than on keeping them from stealing our research. 

India came out the loser in the air battle as China's J-10 fighter (thanks Israel--were we dumb enough to approve that?) in Pakistani hands worked and Russia's S-400 in India's hands did not. No hurry, India. Take your time. 

Putin gave anxious Russians an adequately comfortable oasis of submissive stability along with the facade of Russian power that holds the West at bay to maintain that. The war with Ukraine risks the foundation of that stability. Did Russian misplaced faith that Trump would save them risk demoralizing Russians?

Interesting: "Israel and Syria have agreed to a ceasefire, the U.S. envoy to Turkey said on Friday, after days of bloodshed in the predominantly Druze area that has killed over 300 people." Israel has too many loyal Druze to do nothing yet is busy dealing with Iran (and Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthi).

If the Sunni Islamist government of Syria isn't slaughtering minorities as policy, it is at least unwilling to risk jihadi anger by restraining the murderers. 

Taiwan's military exercises to counter a Chinese invasion are much more realistic these days. But Taiwanese people don't really expect that to happen. The shock of an invasion could shatter their will, I fear. 

Preparing with wargames for an enemy that votes on the outcome of battle. 

Hope and Regime Change: the insurrection from within. That was neither democracy, rule of law, nor peaceful transfer of power. No Kings, indeed. Tip to Instapundit.

Has Putin Been Hit With Neptune's Clue Bat?

A grueling land war with Ukraine may have finally sunk Russia's last carrier. But maybe if Ukraine struck Kuznetsov with a couple long-range drones and did a victory dance over the success, Putin would reflexively pour money into the hulk. 

Noooooooooooooo!!!!!!!

A report in the pro-Kremlin media suggests that the troubled effort to return the Russian Navy’s sole aircraft carrier, Admiral Kuznetsov, to operational service will be terminated. Overhaul and modernization work on the Cold War-era flattop began almost eight years ago but has apparently been abandoned some time ago. 

I've been thrilled with Russia's refusal to grapple with naval reality by rejecting the gift from God who tried to lift the burden of that wreck with a flight deck up on cement blocks called Kuznestsov:

Will Russia waste even more money to fix this smoking tenement with a flight deck despite God reaching out his hand against that POS white elephant?

God, I hope so! Fixing that ship is such a waste of resources that I can't believe Russians bother with the ship. 

But truth be told, the ship was put on a death watch a while ago. The carrier lost its planes to the land war. And then its sailors.

But as long as the hull sits there I dare to have hope. Save that symbol of past Soviet greatness! Hell, build bigger ones and build more! Putin deserves them to lead Russia back to a globally feared navy! 

And he'd look fabulous standing next to one! Putin, let the fleet flow through you! 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to. 

NOTE: Photo from the article.

The MDTF Finds Its True Home

The Army seems to believe the gods of jointness help those who help themselves. 

This makes sense: 

The 56th Artillery Command and 2nd Multi-Domain Task Force, both under U.S. Army Europe and Africa, are being combined, Gen. Christopher Donahue said Wednesday.

Artillery is good. MDTFs seem like Navy-friendly units to leverage funding for long range ground fire if the Air Force is too busy to support the Army in combat. I concede coastal defense artillery has a long history in the Army. But this from the article shows how long-range ground fires can hit the Russians before the Air Force is ready to intervene:

For U.S. and NATO ground forces, the heart of deterrence efforts centers around the Baltics, he said. Donahue said allies face “arguably the best A2-AD bubble in the world” there, referring to Russian anti-access and area denial capabilities in its exclave of Kaliningrad. 

Indeed. Long-range Army fires will be able to hit the air defenses and anti-ship missiles in Kaliningrad to help the other services dogpile on the isolated but dangerous Russians. And yeah, the Baltic region is NATO's main front.

Meanwhile in the Pacific, the Army will establish Multi-Domain Commands under a major general to control Multi-Domain Task Forces in INDOPACOM. Two other commands--in Europe and a reserve--will follow.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to. 

NOTE: Photograph from the article.

The Stealth Fleet Gets a Marketing Slogan

A Navy-Marine operating concept seems more like a hedge against Force Design changes rather than something emerging from that radical force change. Here come the [turning down the light and squinting] light carriers!

Marines supported by air power for island hopping in the Pacific:

As the U.S. military prepares for the possibility of a conflict in the Pacific, the Navy and Marine Corps are working on a new way to project airpower, and they’re calling it the Lightning Carrier.

The concept, which the Corps began testing in 2016, turns amphibious assault ships, like the Navy’s America-class USS America, which is both easy to remember and ultra patriotic in a “Team America” kind of way, into small, agile flat-top carriers bristling with F-35B Lightning II aircraft and about 1,800 Marines. With the F-35B vertical take-off and landing capability, they can fit up to 20 on the deck that can support Marines as they secure or defend remote outposts through the Pacific.

I discussed this new light carrier usage for the new America-class amphibious warfare ship in 2014, but cautioned that the ship is not optimized to be an aircraft carrier.

Notwithstanding the initial article, this concept seemingly predates Force Design. I discussed the uses for still-unnamed ship back in 2007. But I concede the "Lightning Carrier" terminology could be new and improved. Or refinements, of course.

Say, is this concept an admission that moving Marines around in Barges With Pretensions is a suicide mission?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to. 

NOTE: Navy photo from the article. 

The Close Air Support Mission Will Die With the A-10

The A-10 has hung on despite longstanding Air Force efforts to rid itself of that troublesome and unwanted close air support plane. It's final days are in sight. 

The Air Force has been trying to kill the A-10 since it first rolled off the production line. The A-10 may be gone by 2027:

The US Air Force (USAF) hopes to dramatically accelerate retirements of its Fairchild Republic A-10 attack fighters, with fiscal year 2026 budget plans calling for the entire fleet to be phased out by 2027. 

Let's hope the plane lingers on in the Bone Yard in case it is needed when the high-tech stuff runs out in a large-scale conventional war.  

The Air Force was eventually going to be right about the value of the aging plane. But the issue was always trust about the mission. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

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Is Russia an Anchor? What Kind?

Has China changed its view on Russia as its junior Axis of Steal partner? Xi Jinping and his defense minister seemed to play good cop/bad cop with Putin.

This article's title sees the China-Russia partnership as an "anchor of stability". But the text of what China's Defence Minister Dong Jun conveys something very different:

China says the Russia-friendly states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) must be an "anchor of stability" in times of international unrest.

That sounds more like a condition of the partnership that Russia and other members of the SCO must fulfill rather than a description of the relationships. Shut up and obey.

And Putin in that BRICS summit meeting photo above sure looks like he knows his flailing war in Ukraine had called into question Russia's promotion of stability. Xi may have green lit the short and glorious war of conquest Putin promised, but that was almost 40 months ago.

I've long called Russia and China frenemies with benefits. And Xi's comment fully supports my suspicion that China won't let Russia be an anchor that drags it down. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to. 

NOTE: Photo from the article. 

The Winter War of 2022 Switches From Carrots to Sticks

America's attempt to negotiate with Russia to end their invasion of Ukraine and hostility toward America has foundered on Putin's refusal to talk. In the past I've worried about talking to enemies because their intransigence often resulted in our leaders offering more concessions. But not this time. We offered as good a deal as Russia can get. Now Russia will get more pain.

The American government is unhappy with Russia's escalating bombardment of Ukraine's cities and unwillingness to seek a real end to the war:

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed frustration following a June 10 meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov about Russia's lack of progress towards ending the war in Ukraine. Rubio stated after the meeting with Lavrov that he conveyed US President Donald Trump's frustration with Russia's insufficient "flexibility" to end the war.

While Russian troops die in large numbers for mere meters, Russia has escalated its war on Ukraine's cities:

Russia's strike tactics, coupled with the increased scale and concentrated targeting of Russia's recent strike packages, aim to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses and are resulting in significant damage.

Trump overruled what the Pentagon thought was a routine evaluation of American stockpile needs by suspending some arms shipments to Ukraine. Trump said Ukraine needs air defenses to protect its people, and has followed up:

The United States will supply weapons to Ukraine with NATO footing the bill, President Donald Trump announced on the heels of discussions with the leader of the 32-nation defense bloc.

What additional consequences will flow from Russia's brutality? I'm assuming that will include support for knocking out Russia's drone factories that are fueling the aerial bombardment of Ukraine.

UPDATE (Monday) Trump announces that Europeans will buy Patriot systems and missiles for Ukraine:

The commander in chief plans on meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte to discuss Ukraine along with other pressing issues this week.“We basically are going to send them various pieces of very sophisticated military equipment. They are going to pay us 100% for that, and that’s the way we want it,” Trump said. 

Systems that defend cities could also defend bridgeheads across the Dnipro River. Just saying. 

Also, I've long argued Trump would find alternatives to simple "aid" for arming Ukraine. 

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.  

In case you missed it on Substack: Crouching Dragon, Hidden Siberian Tiger

In case you missed it on Substack: The Navy Needs Sloops-of-War

In case you missed it on Substack: Has Erdogan Decided To Go Fully Rogue?

In case you missed it on Substack: Building a Marine Expeditionary Battle Force

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European officials expressed concern "that Iran may be able to build a weapon in secret unless a nuclear agreement enables the IAEA to resume inspections." I'm concerned there already is a secret location. So the IAEA is irrelevant. And maybe our B-2 strikes, too, for at least the initial Iranian nukes.

The Houthi appear to have severely damaged a commercial ship in the Red Sea, with explosives-packed drone vessels.

Collateral damage: "The military is full of young men who are drawn to risky behaviors, a demographic that experts say has the greatest probability for developing gambling addictions." They will be targets for foreign intelligence agents.

The military is setting up an inter-service task force for developing equipment and tactics to counter drones. No rush. Take your time.

While it may seem unseemly for Trump administration officials and foreign leaders to praise Trump so much, consider that in his first administration officials and foreign leaders actively undermined the president. So the pendulum is naturally swinging past the seemly center in the opposite direction. 

Huh: "The U.S. Coast Guard will receive a nearly $25 billion investment, marking the largest single commitment of funding in Service history." 

Opposing China's subliminal offensives: "A Newsweek map shows the United States conducting Coast Guard missions with allies—the Philippines, South Korea, Japan, Australia and India—in waters near China since May." 

Will Germany have the troops to man them? German is thinking about buying "up to 2,500 GTK Boxer infantry fighting vehicles and as many as 1,000 Leopard 2 main battle tanks." Of course, "up to" and "as many as" do a lot of work. 

Speeding up B-21 production.

Honey! I shrunk the aircraft carrier! "Ukraine is now using bomber drones launched from unmanned surface vessels (USVs aka drone boats) to attack targets in Crimea."

Poland will increase 155mm ammunition production. 

France has stopped pretending to believe Russia isn't behind clandestine cyber and real world attacks. That's the necessary first step.

India will equip its home-grown fighter with Israeli electronics. 

Russia's war on NATO: "[Russia's] GRU recruits a large number of operatives while not revealing that Russian intelligence services are paying for it. Anyone who needs some quick cash, including drug addicts and the mentally unstable, are hired. Russia wants to cause chaos[.]" We pretend it isn't a war.

Mass deportations amidst security concerns. But don't worry, it isn't evil. 

Huh: "We are getting our first full look at China’s wing-in-ground effect (WIG) craft." Add another means to move grains of sand across the Taiwan Strait.

Has the Viking funeral ride under Hamas led Palestinians to express a desire to get off the burning funeral pyre?

South Korea cancelled an order for Apache attack helicopters as it wonders if they can survive over a modern battlefield. Excellent question. Can they survive near enough to the battlefield to provide fire support? But even if they can, could other weapon systems provide the capability more inexpensively?

As I've long noted, Russia remains NATO's best recruiter. Nothing can soothe Russian paranoia.

Chinese and Taiwanese corruption. And a nice summary of Chinese military forces.

Despite politically convenient panic, the most recent NATO summit "injected new energy into transatlantic relations. It reinvigorated the alliance, evincing the complete failure of Russia’s plans to dismantle NATO from within." Ditto on NATO support for Ukraine.

This comparison of Germany's "far right" strategy for "seizing power" (i.e., getting elected) to American domestic politics ignores the original sin of the left falsely accusing the right of being literally Nazis. Both here and--I suspect--in Europe, too. I'm offended as a political science and history major.

A border dispute between a long-time U.S. ally and one of China's few friends: "In February, a brief altercation broke out between Thai [and Cambodian] forces after Cambodian personnel and their family members entered an ancient temple along the border and sang the Cambodian national anthem." 

Aggressive protests against legal immigrants because they change the character of the country and harm local people. But don't worry, it's surely the opposite of racist. Tip to Instapundit.

If Palestinians are rewarded with a state after their murder and rape invasion of Israel, we will encourage more terrorism. Stop trying to make Hamas the Queen of the Victim Prom. Even Arabs are over them. Any future must be innovately limited or highly supervised.

Is Britain headed for economic catastrophe?

I think last week I mentioned a new military containerized rocket launcher. It's the "Palletized Field Artillery Launcher (PFAL) project that is said to currently belong to U.S. Special Operations Command (SOCOM)." 

Seeking small, cheap American drone dominance. 

The pattern is China is asshole: "German Surveillance Plane Targeted By Chinese Warship’s Laser In Red Sea Points To Disturbing Pattern[.]"

The EU says the Russians are a threat to European states, wrongly saying it's a threat to the EU when actually it's a threat to NATO. The EU is shameless in exploiting a crisis to increase its power.

The world's pro-Hamas leftists/anti-Semites continue to insist Israeli women were dressed slutty and asking for it. Why feminists aren't the most stalwart anti-Islamists is beyond me. But no, keep cosplaying oppression in your Hand Maiden costumes. Tip to Instapundit.

Russia adapts it tactics to its losses as Ukraine uses small suicide drones to keep killing Russians with neither the training nor equipment to survive long on the front. Unless it is just a case that the Russians suck more than the FPV drones suck.

Russia is the Sick Man of Eurasia that China may pounce on if Russia doesn't pull its head out of its Putin. Preaching to the TDR choir, he is. How Russians sleep at night is beyond me. How Putin avoids falling out a Kremlin window is also beyond me.

Small drone defenses continue to be developed. 

Still doesn't seem like a lot: "The U.S. Army’s Fiscal Year 2026 budget request includes the acquisition of 233 PAC-3 Missile Segment Enhancement (MSE) interceptors, scaling up PAC-3 MSE procurement by a factor of four[.]" Crawl, walk, run, I guess.

In fact, Ukraine is helping America focus on China: "With China dropping any pretense of neutrality in the Russia/Ukraine conflict (note they want it to continue as it keeps us from focusing on them), and Russia not able to close the deal on their own (so to speak), things could get interesting indeed." 

The notion that contingency plans for occupying Greenland would be triggered by anything other than China making good its farcical "near-Arctic state" claim either overtly or insidiously is ridiculous. And tossing in American military threats to Canadian islands is just deranged.

America has an opportunity to reduce Russian influence by inserting itself into the Armenia-Azerbaijan territorial dispute? What, the Israel-Palestinian and Russia-Ukraine disputes aren't enough fun? 

Via Instapundit, AI gets pretty twisted when the large language model is corrupted with hideous language. I imagine any military AI will be targets of similar corruption with bad data. 

An American Los Angeles-class nuclear-powered attack submarine visited Iceland for the first time to signal Arctic interests. 

Is there a new plan to finally destroy Hamas and end the war? 

Preaching to the TDR choir: "Offensive drones have had a brief window of domination. But it was only a matter of time before effective counter-drone capabilities emerged." Seriously.

Forget the crisis of the day, consider the grave and gathering global demographic crisis. 

The 25th Infantry Division is practicing territorial defense in the Philippines. Holding that territory would be needed to project Army and Marine units to Taiwan.

Corrupt builders in Kursk installing "dragons teeth" "caused the concrete barriers to crumble and fail if an armored vehicle rammed them. Russian authorities apprehended and prosecuted the contractors." I had hoped the 2023 Surovikin Line would suffer from this.

Hezbollah ordered hundreds of leaders to escape Lebanon and they headed for South America. Not Qatar?America said stop that. Or Iran? That's no sanctuary now. But why South America, you may ask. 

The B-1 is getting new external pylons able to hold hypersonic missiles, partly as a hedge in B-21 delays.

The Houthi are back in the Red Sea interdiction mission.

DARPA research proved a heavy seaplane able to land and take off in rough waters is possible. And now the project is over. 

Urging somebody to herd the cats in the Pacific.

This comparison of the situation in Syria to the Iraq War and aftermath is the dumbest thing I've read so far this year. And really, we can only wish history repeats itself in Syria!

Huzzah? "'While our adversaries have produced millions of cheap drones, before us we were mired in bureaucratic red tape,' he said in the video, which he posted from his official X account. 'Not anymore.'" Well, we'll need them even when past their "best before" date.

Sure, the MOPs might not have reached planned depth before detonating. And sure some enriched uranium could be buried. But hopefully everything that survived is buried beyond the ability to reach and restore or salvage. I've always said striking can only buy time.

Air defense: "The U.S. Air Force has transferred upgraded F-16 Fighting Falcons from Japan to South Korea, reinforcing its fighter capabilities on the Korean Peninsula amid ongoing efforts to deter airborne threats." That enables power projection.

Europeans are still working on a "stabilization force" for post-war Ukraine. I think such a token force can only work if Russia pulls its head out of its Putin. 

The original FPV suicide drones. 

Yes, don't cheapen campaign decorations by recognizing an individual strike as a campaign. If individuals or units deserve citations, there are means to recognize extraordinary effort. 

The Navy is working on layered defenses against Chinese anti-ship ballistic missiles with missiles, electronic warfare, and anti-satellite weapons. If you follow the kill chain, there are places to break it. One bright side is that China's missiles are expensive and not swarm systems.

Gulp: "The U.S. Navy is no longer able to maintain or repair its ships." I suppose we could make China share that problem.

Europeans are going to be better able to defend Europe within a revitalized NATO now. The EU royalty-in-waiting hardest hit--not Russia, if it tries rubbing a couple of brain cells together.

Huh: "The Islamic Republic of Iran holds significant animosity toward its northern neighbor, Azerbaijan. ... Khamenei is responsible for the intense animosity directed at Azerbaijan[.]" I had wondered if Azerbaijan would help Israel strike Iran.

Georgia goes authoritarian, making resistance to Russia seem kind of pointless: "The government calls it combating hate speech. The reality is that it is criminalizing dissent, one fine at a time." Hey, we tried. 

They're back: "Houthi militia from Yemen have sunk the merchant ship Eternity C in the Red Sea, the EU military operation in the region said on Wednesday, the second such incident in four days." 

Ukraine's strategic warfare continues and Russia's ground forces get shaky.

Trouble in Mozambique, and jihadis to make it all much worse.

It's a tad early to be unfurling the Mission Unaccomplished banner. Also, 1.5 points of the 5%  of GDP NATO defense spending commitment is for related security spending. And Europe needs to spend more than America to catch up a bit to consistent superior American effort.

Will China risk chaos? "Xi has failed to achieve the 'national rejuvenation' and 'common prosperity' goals he set, and his approach to the U.S. has neither intimidated it into submission nor charmed it into cooperation. Economic problems are widespread ... The rise of an opposing faction is a direct response[.]" 

Your time in the box at the National Training Center is a gift that will hurt you--use it to be better when physics and not referees are determining your casualties. 

While rumors of peace for our time in Gaza swirl around, the necessary work of killing jihadis continues.

Sh*t got real in Europe.  

Israel's armored robotic bulldozer. It is usefulness despite being unarmed. I think so far robots--or remotely controlled vehicles seem very useful for urban warfare (or point security) but are not ready for the big stage. 

North Korea can only dream of being Upper Volta with missiles. If Russia supplies North Korea with nukes, that pretty much signals Russia-North Korea resistance to China's dominance.

I do not understand why I have gotten so many hits from Vietnam over the last four weeks. It's really odd. 

Mission Accomplished On European Rearmament!

It is reputed to be a Chinese curse to get what you wish for. America has finally convinced Europe to arm itself against the revived Russian threat. There's a dark lining to that silver cloud.

America and Russia got Europe to rearm. Russian threats to invade and American threats to watch Russia invade worked.

But ... :

Growing European power means the era of comfortable U.S. leadership is over. Now that it provides more for itself, Europe will feel less pressure to defer to Washington’s interests.

That's the thing, as I've warned about repeatedly. You can't lead real power from behind:

Please tell me our foreign policy isn't to have the Europeans arm up and expect them to fight to defend America. That didn't work out so well in the first half of the 20th century. It was folly when Obama proposed it. And it is folly now. ...

Europe could defend itself. With time. By design it doesn't without America to knit together atomized European capabilities. We should of course want stronger European--but not EU--military power within America-led NATO. We must not indulge in a reboot of "leading from behind" that pretends other countries will fight for American interests without consequences[.]

And with Europeans agreeing to defense spending targets and Trump joining America's NATO allies in reaffirming Article V,  it doesn't look like America will walk away. The risk of Europeans using their new military power for their objectives and not American objectives is still there. But with America in NATO, there is less chance of surprises.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to. 

NOTE: I made the image with Bing. Which is not letting me make new images that I can access. But some old ones can still be mined. Fingers crossed.

Threat Perception Moves Pretty Fast. If You Don't Stop and Look Around Once in a While, You Could Miss It.

Defense reviews are risky business. They freeze a moment in time and justify force planning to match the review. Britain's post-Brexit and post-Cold War global defense strategy ran right into a renewed Russian threat in Europe. A military built for the former is in a tough spot.

The British are getting reminded by a podcast of their vulnerability to a direct Russian attack on Britain:

The Wargame records a real-life simulation played by former members of the British political and security establishment, focused around an attack by Russia on the UK. It is gripping listening and quite alarming, if depressingly familiar to anyone who has worked in British defence.

That post discusses Britain's defense shortcomings posed by the podcast in light of real world events. So this seems about one Russian invasion of Ukraine ago relevant: 

The U.K.’s first Carrier Strike Group will operate for four months in the Indo-Pacific to complete the full operational capability milestone for the Royal Navy’s carrier strike group concept.

But before Russia made Europe the main battlefield again, a Pacific cruise made sense. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to. 

NOTE: Royal Navy photo of HMS Prince of Wales.

Air Base Defense 101

As everyone flips out about deploying new, advanced weapons to defend air bases from small drone attacks, maybe get the basics down first.

Small drones aren't needed to cripple Britain's air force at home:

A security review has been launched across UK military bases after pro-Palestinian activists broke into RAF Brize Norton and sprayed two military planes with red paint.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer condemned the action as "disgraceful", saying it was an "act of vandalism".

How easily vandalism with red paint could have been sabotage with explosives, eh? So maybe first put armed and alert guards on duty. Defending fences and barriers. And of course hardened aircraft shelters will protect planes from paint or explosives.

Then get those fancy small drone counter-measures, by all means.

UPDATE: Members of Congress are skipping right to the fancy stuff. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to. 

NOTE: Image from the article. 

A Car Can't Be All Tail Fins, Chrome and Marketing

If everybody's job is to bombard from a distance, everyone will bombard from a distance.

Infantry with drones: 

What distinguishes drone-enabled infantry is the fusion of sensor and shooter into a single, remotely operated platform. Crucially, the infantry soldier or forward observer no longer needs to be physically near the weapon or the target area, shifting not just engagement geometry but also the risk calculus and tactical flexibility of infantry formations. Drone-enabled infantry has extended the range of contact well beyond visual range. This new sight capability, which can easily extend to 20-kilometer ranges, has decentralized the kill chain and altered the relationship between tactical maneuver forces and fires.

Squads and platoons can now scout and initiate attacks across vast distances. Once reserved for higher headquarters, the ability to see and strike is now organic at the lowest tactical levels.

Sounds impressive. Who closes with and destroys the enemy? 

Because I can see infantry organized for this leading to longer drone bombardments stalling the eventual order to close with and destroy the enemy. 

Because just a little more drone bombardment will improve the odds, eh? That's how World War I "preparatory" artillery barrages got bigger and longer in an effort to help the infantry survive the advance across No-Man's Land.

This Fall 2024 Air Force article was cited by the authors for raising the topic of the "air littoral" regarding small drones. Just to preempt the charge I don't appreciate the capabilities of small drones, I raised this threat and called that air littoral "the brown skies" in a 2018 Army article. Just saying. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to. 

NOTE: Image by Tech. Sgt. Francisco V. Govea II/ Air Force.