I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of
2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.
In case you missed it on Substack: Size Matters
In case you missed it on Substack: The Decline of European Global Relevance
In case you missed it on Substack: Upgrading the Armored Forces
In case you missed it on Substack:
I was right to be suspicious of the British Diego Garcia transfer. Britain signed it in the dead of night and must tell pro-China Mauritius about military operations from the island, Russia gets "marine research" access in another deal, and Britain retreated under an "advisory" opinion with no teeth. Kneel Britannia!
Strategypage looks kindly at Britain't Chilcot Report about the Iraq War. Eric has critical thoughts about the report. I think discussing the lead up to the war would be helped if everyone admitted we won the war.
Is the duct tape holding together Putin's war machine about to rip apart?
Kim has detained four officials for that catastrophic destroyer launch? Detained? And only four?
Saudi Arabia will lift alcohol bans at 600 tourist locations to encourage World Cup tourism. I fear that Islamist fanatics will murder the man most responsible for trying to turn a jihadi-inspiring religion into one that is willing to play well with others.
Well: "The U.S. military is backing off its usual talk of good governance and countering insurgencies' underlying causes, instead leaning into a message that its fragile allies in Africa must be ready to stand more on their own." This could be a problem.
You expect European Union royalty to not act like they pulled Excalibur from the stone? "From fraud to nepotism to revolving doors between the public sector and industry, the stench of impunity is pervasive."
Top French ministers met "to devise a strategy to counter the growing expansion in France of the Muslim Brotherhood." It's about time. But the British are worse off than the French.
Huh: "Israel aims to take control of 75% of the Gaza Strip and move its 2 million inhabitants into three designated areas as part of a new military offensive in the coastal strip." There's an opportunity, no? Three areas for red, yellow, or green Gazans depending on threat reviews.
Does China's economy have feet of clay? I want it to be true. Doesn't mean it is true.
The Germans say the West has lifted its range limit on Ukraine using Western missiles inside Russia. This responds to Russia's escalating bombardment of Ukraine's cities.
The U.S. has 500 military trainers in Taiwan.
Wait. What? "Despite being a central part of the U.S. military’s strategy in the Pacific, there still isn’t a clear strategy for maintaining the missile defense systems on Guam."
Poland and Romania are leaning forward on drone production and use.
Europe is "plagued" by too many naval shipyards? Lease some for expanding the U.S. Navy!
Can China deter America from resisting an attack on Taiwan by posing "risks to the U.S. homeland, such as cyber attacks on power grids and telecommunications networks and even the specter of nuclear escalation[?" I raised such options to delay America some time ago. Full series here. Related angle.
Israel is not violating international law in Gaza. The charge of genocide is farcical. Ef the UN for going along. Hamas could stop hiding behind civilians, stop stealing food, or surrender. It's leaders refuse. The clearest violation of international law was the October 7, 2023 rape and murder invasion by Hamas.
Israel intercepted a rocket that the Houthi fired at Israel.
The Air Force is testing the F-15E with a load of 42 APKWS II 70mm rockets for drone interception.
The Netherlands has dispatched the last of the 24 F-16s it pledged for Ukraine.
The rest of the world is vulnerable because of reliance on Chinese exports. But Chinese corruption means that the CCP has no idea where its production is going. China could succumb to a blockade in years. Could America enforce that for years? But if effective, would China respond with nukes?
Iran's drive-by shooters: "Without aid from China and Russia, the Houthis would have been out of business long ago."
Are some Palestinian clans in the West Bank considering joining the Abraham Accords? Big if true. This mirrors rumors of Gaza clans getting out from underneath Hamas. Tip to Instapundit.
Ukraine says Russia is preparing a new offensive. Sure. But unless it is with a major reserve held back--and apparently there is no indication of such a thing--it will be more but persistent and costly grinding assaults. Also, does Ukraine have a strategic reserve?
If B-52 upgrades can be achieved, more B-21s will be needed to meet Air Force objectives.
Will Iran follow the South Korea or North Korea path as it nears a historic turning point? Wait. What? Iran is nearing a historic turning point? And if so, maybe the rump Persian Empire simply fragments. If so I'd bet on the North Korea model for the Persian core. Perhaps not even Islamic in nature.
Hmm: "The time has come for the United States to build a collective defense pact in Asia." Sure, China is a common enemy. But it's a broad front. I don't think we can herd the cats to a common battlefield.
China's links to anti-Israel fanatics in America. The usual suspect in any violent protest, ANSWER, makes an appearance.
Throwing panties at Ukraine's drones. But I want to address the charge that there is "flagging American support" for Ukraine. Rhetorically, sure. In the future? Perhaps? But right now American ammunition is flowing, pushed into the pipeline by Biden with no Trump reversal. And intelligence support continues.
In a repressive state, one never knows if economic grievances are the only problem: "Truck drivers across Iran have launched a nationwide strike over rising insurance and maintenance costs and worsening economic conditions."
Well, we're apparently giving it the old college try: "Syrian Transitional President Ahmed al Shara met with US Special Envoy to Syria and US Ambassador to Turkey Thomas Barrack in Istanbul on May 26."
Okay, this was funny initially, but has totally lost its humor value to become unnecessary friction.
Once, Nigeria seemed to have suppressed Boko Haram jihadis into a nuisance threat. Yeah, the murderers are coming back strong.
No worries! Take your time. It's not like Guam is a missile magnet, or anything.
To be fair, the Russians are complete evil bastards.
Where the national motto is "Thank God for the Democratic Republic of Congo!"
He previously ran the Constellation program: "The admiral overseeing the Navy’s unmanned surface platforms and small combatants was relieved Tuesday, the service announced in a statement." I'm sensing a pattern.
Peacetime repair is already strained: "The United States needs to prepare now for battle damage repair by investing in repair ships, and learning lessons from recent emergent repairs and the last major war it fought at sea." The small repair ships weren't even on my radar.
LOL! "Land forces tool up for potential Pacific conflict[.]" Land forces are absolutely not tooling up for potential Pacific land conflict.
Can Syria recover with just sanctions relief? What's this "Syria" you speak of?
I don't believe (see updates) that Trump will abandon Ukraine. Letting Putin win and make a mockery of Trump's diplomatic effort isn't a good look. Perhaps aid is cut--or disguised with that mineral deal. Or maybe Europe buys our weapons for Ukraine. And America intelligence sharing will continue.
This EU platform says Ukraine will collapse if it relies on Europe alone. Hogwash, one way or another, American aid will flow. The EU will resist aiding that flow because it wants a crisis to exploit for expanding EU power. And Ukraine be damned.
The British king reassures Canada it will never be an American state given that it is still a British colony--and you don't even own all your territory, you evil colonial settlers. King Charles III couldn't pull a dull knife from a warm slab of butter.
The Stinger SAM will get a new engine to extend its range.
Russian Shahed drones are diving bombing now. Oh really? Well, it's diving suicide runs. How long until they drop small bombs instead?
China attacked Czechoslovakia. But it wasn't kinetic so it doesn't count?
Until cheap drone defenses are deployed, "the future of autonomous light tanks now hangs in the balance as the Army reassesses whether combat vehicles that cost millions of dollars are too vulnerable to swarms of cheap drones." Even when facing artillery, direct fire, or [checks notes] grass, small UGVs seem weak.
China doesn't like the trade deal between America and Britain.
An Alibaba customer in Singapore returned to crawl TDR. Weird.
China's WiFi hardware Trojan Horse inside America. Deal with this potential cyber Pearl Harbor faster, please.
Putin's vodka-addled pet nuke monkey, Medvedev, threatens World War III after Trump expressed anger at Putin's continuing invasion of Ukraine. Is China really happy with its vassal trying to pull down everything China has built up in the last forty years?
The third and fourth navies practice: "Marine Corps and Army missile systems are set to deploy to a key chokepoint in the Philippine Island chains for anti-ship drills [.]"
Germany will help Ukraine build long-range missiles to take the war to Russia.
Asian navies look to drones to protect their undersea infrastructure from threats (coughChinacough).
I'm just happy that Canada wants airborne early warning and control planes.
The QuadStar candidate for a replacement for the Stinger shoulder-launched air defense missile.
Do Iranians want regime change now? "In the past week alone, Iran has witnessed an extraordinary wave of labor unrest and civil disobedience." I hate to get my hopes up. But I'd sure hate Trump to repeat Obama's stiff-arming of the Green Revolution.
Too little, too late to salvage the LCS? I believe the concept had promise. But execution followed recent shipbuilding tradition.
Time is on Ukraine's side? I think time is less on Russia's side for the war. Beware the math argument. But in the medium term, Ukraine is in a tough position.. As time goes on, even a Ukrainian victory stabs more deeply into Ukraine's future. Unless Ukraine defeats corruption. Also, I never trust the Quincy Institute.
China deploys H-6 bombers to the Philippines' Woody Island that China illegally occupies.
Israel hit the Houthi airport at Sanaa. Iran continues to aim its Arab proxies at Israel.
Will LLM-based AI cause more disruption on society and the economy than machines have had based on physical strength? How many men with shovels does one bulldozer replace? In the short run it could be quite disruptive--and I wouldn't want to start a white collar career now--but the long run will be fine, no?
Russia is reducing the scale of its September Zapad-2025 military exercises in Belarus--because it can't spare troops from the war against Ukraine. What the Hell is left should the People's Liberation Volunteer Army come across the border in the Far East?
The German elites still think the peasants are revolting.
I've said we have an Erdogan problem, so this should be good: "Turkey’s populist authoritarian leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is now fighting for his political survival." But has Erdogan been in power so long that he made it a Turkey problem?
The Army is retiring its turbo-prop ISR aircraft.
Oh? "The European Union has unveiled a sweeping security strategy for the
strategically vital Black Sea aimed at countering Russian threats in the
region." The EU doesn't care about Black Sea security. The EU cares about getting the power to have a Black Sea security strategy that also kills NATO.
Huh: "Russia partially financed its war in Ukraine via extensive Bitcoin creation, or mining. The energy requirements are so high that Russia has had to limit the use of electricity by industries and even some civilians." I believe Russian bravado is a bluff to get the West to give up before Russia has a crisis.
Hollowed out: "The need for manpower for fighting in Ukraine has depleted the number of police available, especially in remote rural areas." Strategypage needs to fix this longstanding text: "aid from NATO enabled the Ukrainians to stop the Russians and eventually expel them."
The Army is too light to defeat Russian or Chinese units. Singing to the TDR choir, he is. Some form of mobile, protected firepower is still needed.
But China has the hard power: "The Philippine foreign ministry said on Thursday that China has no right to object to or interfere with its lawful and routine activities in the South China Sea."
Oh no! Russia left secrets just hanging out there showing how freaking awesome their nuclear arsenal is!! I'm skeptical. If this information is used to target Russian nukes, I bet the targets are inert. Unless we see the Russians spend serious money moving stuff, I'm not buying this. Tip to Instapundit.
China is increasing drone sales to Ukraine while reducing sales to Ukraine and the West. I wonder if Chinese manufacturers are really reducing sales that reach Ukraine.
Russian recruits get very little training.
Making friends and influencing people: "The Iranian Quds force, which specializes in stirring up trouble outside Iran, has been looking for new hunting ground and found one in Nigeria."
Argentina poised to be a shale oil and natural gas power.
Nimitz defied China's claim of control in the South China Sea by conducting air operations there.
Axis of Steal update: "Iran continues to coordinate with China and Russia on nuclear and economic issues, which illustrates cooperation between major US adversaries."
Pakistan bans pro-Iran terrorists. Can they survive by rebranding themselves as anti-India? Because Pakistan is cool with that.
Welp, Canada caught fire again. Another summer of poor air quality here, I guess. Good luck, Canada. Sucks more for you.
Gaza clans are challenging the weakened Hamas.
Russia insists it must get even more Ukrainian territory. I still think this is bravado to obscure their growing problems.
A senior German military officer defended spending 3.5% of GDP on defense, but warned mere spending is not security: "It is about growing capabilities, reasonable equipment, 'combat-ready units and soldiers' who could be alerted at any time." But spending is a step.
