Forward Defense: Down Under Edition

Australia has a lot of countries between it and an aggressive China. But that is no reason for Australia to assume that buffer, if left on its own, will shield Australia as a favor--even if it is within the buffer's capabilities.

This seems like a wise policy for Australia in a dangerous neighborhood in an uncertain world:

Instead of sliding and hedging, our message in the capitals of Asia and the Pacific should be a confident one of strategic solidarity. We should declare that we will stand with our neighbours in the face of Chinese aggression and coercion. This Australian pledge of solidarity should be extended to the following: Indonesia, Malaysia, The Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia and Brunei in Southeast Asia; farther afield to Japan, South Korea, India, Sri Lanka, Maldives, New Zealand and East Timor; the sovereign nations of the Pacific Islands Forum; and possibly others in the Indo-Pacific region. In a carefully couched and suitably adapted form that recognised current Australian policy on its status, the pledge even could be extended to Taiwan.

Although this proposal doesn't include alliance levels of solidarity, it is a web of concern at least. This is very much in line for why I want America to support allies and friends abroad in Europe and Asia:

America tries to keep overseas threats from developing to the point of threatening America at home. ...

So we try to keep Russia as far east as possible where it can't harness the resources of Europe. And we try to keep China penned inside the first island chain by supporting allies there, preventing China from organizing the resources of the western Pacific.

Achieving both objectives prevents powers in control of Europe or Asia from threatening North America.

And in many ways, this diplomatic security proposal complements Australian rearmament as a means to being lunge worthy when America decides whether to fight. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it.

NOTE: Map from Owlcation.

A Thousand Grains of Beachhead

How much of a variety of options "not enough" to invade Taiwan adds up to enough for China to defeat Taiwan? 

An author I respect is not impressed with China's civilian amphibious lift options for invading Taiwan. He's not wrong in his assessment of sea-based lift. But with a "thousand grains of sand" approach, "too little" capability in any single means across sea, air, and pre-war infiltration method can add up to sufficient lift to win. Especially if you define "win" differently than we in the West do:

I think China holding a significant bridgehead regardless of the trend signifies a Chinese victory. Eventually a ceasefire will take hold, whether or not it is official. And then China will build up its forces on Taiwan for months or years until it can resume the invasion. Or until the threat of a resumed overland invasion undermines Taiwan's resolve to resist their giant neighbor.

I think China can throw troops across the strait with amphibious warfare ships, military-compliant civilian transports, old coast guard warships, paratroopers, airlift by planes, airlift by helicopters and other air transport, and pre-war infiltration. 

Taiwan needs to get its small active army ready and sent to fight at the Chinese beachheads and airheads. But a good number will need to be held in reserve in case initial landings are diversions. Just as the Germans did not employ their early numerical advantage in France to defeat the D-Day landings when the invasion force was small and vulnerable.

And I suspect most Taiwan reservists are useful only for rear area garrisons with perhaps some good enough to replace losses in the active forces.

And when you add up the rate of putting Chinese troops on Taiwan and compare it to the number of active duty troops Taiwan can deploy, Taiwan is not safe from China building up a reasonable superiority in the north to drive on Taipei, the capital. 

And if Taiwan prevents China from capturing Taipei, even that may be insufficient to deny China a victory. If China establishes bridgeheads and airheads, the proper calculation of relative combat power is whether Taiwan has enough troops to drive the invaders into the sea. That, as I argued in Military Review, is the key to defeating China.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it.

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Documenting the Seduction by the F**k-Up Fairy

With an official report in, we can officially state that America officially effed up in Afghanistan.

There was no coherent U.S. Afghanistan strategy:

As the special inspector general for Afghanistan reconstruction since 2012, I, with my staff, have audited and investigated U.S. programs and spending to rebuild Afghanistan — a mission that, it was hoped, would turn the theocratic, tribal-based “Graveyard of Empires” into a modern liberal democracy.

In hundreds of reports over the last 12 years, we have detailed a long list of systemic problems: The U.S. government struggled to carry out a coherent strategy, fostered overly ambitious expectations, started unsustainable projects and did not understand the country or its people. American agencies measured success not by what they accomplished, but by dollars spent or checklists of completed tasks.

I advised a different path for what we could achieve with more troops when the Afghanistan surge was just a figurative gleam in the not-yet-sworn-in Obama administration's eye:

The end result in Afghanistan, if all goes well, will be a nominal national government that controls the capital region and reigns but does not rule local tribes and which actually helps the locals a bit rather than sucking resources from the locals, who in turn do not make trouble for the central government or allow their areas to be used by jihadis to plan attacks on the West. We press for reasonable economic opportunities, with bribes all around (I mean, foreign aid), to keep a fragile peace.

And we stick around this time, unlike after the Soviets left Afghanistan when we ignored the place, for a generation or two to see if we can move Afghanistan into the 19th century (hey, let's not get ahead of ourselves).

The sad thing is, even with our faulty strategy based on pretending that having a UN seat meant you were a real country, if we hadn't botched it by totally withdrawing from Afghanistan in the worst possible way, we could have avoided the fall of the Afghanistan government and security forces. Then we might have gotten to that decentralized version of Afghanistan eventually. The need to help the locals govern and oppose the Taliban absent a sufficiently capable central government could have pushed us in that direction.

But instead, Afghanistan is a jihadi sanctuary again. What could possibly go wrong?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it.

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Don't Lose Europe!

Our efforts over nearly a century from World War I to today gave us a Europe free from significant military threats and allowed America to mostly withdraw our troops from Europe after the Cold War. We left the skeleton of the NATO alliance as a national security insurance policy that could be fleshed out in case a new threat arises. If we leave as the threat begins to arise in Russia, we cancel the insurance policy and encourage catastrophe.

Abandoning Europe would be a strategic mistake for America:

Historically America’s commitment to Europe has been about the fundamentals of geopolitics. The United States is a quintessentially naval power situated in a hemisphere separated from the Eurasian landmass by two oceans.  Since the early twentieth century it has been a given that accessing secure maritime routes across the Atlantic – and in a national emergency, controlling them – is in the country’s irreducible national interest. The ability to do so has ensured the security of the American homeland and the Western hemisphere, and equally importantly, the nation’s prosperity and economic growth.  

And while the Pacific has grown in importance over the last three decades, Europe remains America’s gateway to Eurasia, the source of its bedrock alliances, and ultimately the cradle of its national and cultural heritage. Suffice it to say that during the last two global conflicts, the United States went to war to prevent one power from dominating Europe and Eurasia. After the Second World War it remained in Europe to ensure that the Soviet Union, its erstwhile World War II ally, did not achieve what German imperialism had sought to accomplish in the first half of the twentieth century.

Indeed.

I've written (see pp. 15-20) about the value of American forces defending Europe both for the deterrent value to keep Europe in our camp and for allowing America to project power into the arc of crisis across North Africa all the way to Central Asia.

Our military footprint in Europe was drastically decreased from Cold War levels to devote more resources to face China, bring troops home, or disband units. Even with the Israel-Iran (and proxy) war straining American naval power, the large American military presence fighting wars in the CENTCOM region is long in the rear view mirror. But we still have national security reasons to keep both regions from being too hostile or dangerous. And when Soviet armies were parked in central Europe through a divided Germany, that was damned near (by about the 100 miles to the Rhine River) too hostile.

Saying we must turn the Asia pivot dial to 11 by abandoning both those regions is retreat disguised as strategy. Don't let the Atlantic Ocean be our eastern first line of defense. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it.

NOTE: The 1987 Cold War era map is from NATO. It reflects France out of the unified military command (but still part of the alliance) and shows Spain as a new member of NATO (in 1982). I guess the map notation simply shows Spain isn't an original NATO member.

The Winter War of 2022 Gets a Path to Ukrainian Victory

Does Ukraine have the edge in the war to defeat Russia's invasion? Is Russia's war effort less sustainable than Putin claims it is?

The war goes on. Although Russia's advances seem to have slowed down lately. Is it weather? Running out of steam from losses or logistics? Shifting forces to emphasize another area of the front? It's hard to say because the death and destruction along the front are dull roars that have become background noise. But time has not been kind to Putin's plans.

From the "Be careful what you wish for: Moscow file" comes this:

Instead of giving Putin the golden keys to the Ukrainian kingdom, Trump issued an ultimatum to the Kremlin: Cut a deal to end the war or, as he posted Wednesday on Truth Social, “It is only going to get worse [for Russia].”

This is a good point:

Western public discourse is increasingly dominated by the idea that Ukraine is losing the war and should pursue a peace deal to avoid further losses. This perception likely arises from a disproportionate focus on visible land domain operations, which tend to dominate media coverage and are easier to follow.

Yet wars are won with strategies, not tactics. And in this area, Ukraine can demonstrate a clear path to holding Russia on the battlefield while inflicting what will ultimately prove to be unbearable losses. If that sounds questionable, remember that 12 days before Bashar al-Assad’s fall his regime looked absolutely secure.

Early on I noted that a war can seem stalemated but that the outcome can be on the knife's edge until it tilts and then rushes to one side. 

I've stated I think Putin is putting up a Potemkin Village facade of confidence about Russia's ability to continue to lose whatever it takes in men and materiel to bulldoze Ukraine. 

ISW recently addressed the economic side of this propaganda effort:

The Kremlin has launched an information operation that seeks to create the false impression that the Russian economy is performing well despite numerous continued indicators of macroeconomic distress.

Is Trump's assessment of Russia wrecking itself piercing the facade of inevitable Russian victory in the West?

The American president made some of the most critical comments he’s ever made about Mr. Putin, declaring that the Russian leader is “destroying Russia” by waging war in Ukraine.

And I've certainly noted that my nervousness about Ukraine's long but slow retreat in the Donbas region may be misplaced. I've long--since the original invasion--encouraged Ukraine to preserve their ground forces by trading space for time:

If Putin does escalate to openly waged warfare against Ukraine to take eastern Ukraine, Ukraine needs to do three things: preserve the Ukrainian army; wage irregular warfare in eastern Ukraine to stress Russia's still-inadequate ground forces; and strike Sevastopol.

Trading space for time to preserve their ground forces also inflicts heavier casualties on the Russians, which in the long run is more important than holding one more destroyed village.

But I can't tell if the slow retreat is a sign of crumbling Ukrainian morale and capabilities or if it is a sign that Ukraine is doing exactly what I advised--but I can't see the effects on Russia's troops or home front through the fog of war as easily as I can see map changes.

The author of that good point made in the early link makes the case for Ukraine winning. She points to Ukraine's fight in other domains as advantages. And rightly points to the fact that smaller countries can win and have won, especially with outside support, as I addressed early.

UPDATE (Monday): Ukraine transferred the commander of the Donetsk portion of the Donbas front:

Russian forces have been slowly but steadily advancing in eastern Ukraine for more than a year in relentless ground combat that has caused massive military losses on both sides.

Does this mean Ukraine hasn't been trading space for time in order to kill more Russians? Or is it a reflection that Ukraine is ending the policy? Or is it a reaction to public pressure to hold ground, reflecting my admitted reaction to seeing the territory losses but not the benefits except in theory?

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I continue posting here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.  

While Russia tries to freeze Ukrainians by bombing their electric grid, Russians begin to freeze in the dark because electricity (in some areas) and central heating plants are breaking down. Sanctions hurt. 

Killing Ukrainians is neither fun nor easy: "By 2024 Russia allows men as old as 70 to enlist and receive the cash payments. Many of these men were grandfathers and admitted they did it to provide for their orphaned grandchildren. The fathers had died in the war ..."

A gray hull line in the sea: "The Philippines and the United States carried out joint maritime exercises for a fifth time in the South China Sea, Manila’s armed forces said on Sunday, in a move that would likely irk China. "

Shadow war: "In late 2024 Shin Bet, the Israeli security agency reported that it had arrested seven Israelis who had been operating as Iranian spies since the October 2023 Hamas uprising in southern Israel. The seven spies had operated from 2022 t0 2024, [conducting recon useful for strikes.]"

Assuming the war is actually over, Hamas emerges from the rubble they ensured by using Gaza as a human shield to claim victory. How many more such victories could they endure? 

Sweden's prime minister warned of the Russian hybrid war threat to the region: "The Swedish Armed Forces statement, titled “Hybrid operations harm Sweden,” quoted Swedish Chief of Defense Force Gen. Leif Michael Claesson." It's a form of war, of course. But one easy to ignore if you choose.

CRS report to Congress on the Ford-class carrier.

I suspect this author is just being wrongly fixated on a word that is irrelevant to the goal of prioritizing preparations to fight and win. Remember the Land Warrior project? But sure, we need soldiers and not warriors. Warriors fight as individuals. Soldiers fight as a team. Soldiers beat warriors.

Has China's growth over the last two or three years slumped to 2% notwithstanding robust growth officially reported? I wouldn't be surprised. I've long droned on about the limits to China's rapid growth.

Is Russia hiding excessive, banned nuclear strength? "A newly released U.S. State Department report highlights mounting concerns over Russia’s failure to comply with key verification provisions of the New START Treaty." Or hiding nuclear weakness?

Poland received the first 28 of 250 M1A2 Abrams tanks ordered: "Poland has its first batch of the United States’ most modern battle tank, taking delivery of more than two dozen of them amid a broader military buildup in conjunction with its growing role in hosting American personnel."

This is what civilian control means: "Coast Guard Commandant Adm. Linda Lee Fagan was abruptly fired Monday by the new acting head of the Department of Homeland Security, precipitating a leadership shakeup for the force." She wasn't on my radar as a problem. But we need every service in the fight.

Why wasn't this done a week ago? "Prosecutors in New York City accused a leader of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC, and three of his followers of trying to organize an assassination of a government critic in 2022." Maybe because Iran has long had a hall pass to murder foes here.

Israel has problems in Lebanon if it hopes the Lebanese army can provide security against Hezbollah re-establishing itself in southern Lebanon. Will Israel need to establish friendly Lebanese militias there (again)? And don't even try to claim the UN will do the job.

Lockheed Martin (I have a small number of their shares, FYI) offers a AGM-179 JAGM alternative to Harpoon anti-ship missiles installed on Navy Burke destroyers.

It is true that Ukraine has shown more skill at combined arms operations than the Russians have. But until Ukraine can do that with at least multi-brigade operations, the advantage is not significant.

Our gun barrel liners are better than Russian liners, but we can still only produce 30 per month: "The U.S. Army is moving to establish a second production source for barrels for 155mm M777 towed howitzers in response to what it calls 'unprecedented demand' from Ukraine."

When counter-measures deny cheap FPV suicide drones free rein over the battlefield, will this replace them? "The U.S. Army is looking to give its still-in-development anti-armor guided 155mm artillery shells the ability to ‘collaborate’ with each other to help find their targets and otherwise be more effective." 

The Abrams tank is surely good--for now, with additional protection added. I'm certainly happy we didn't lose it. But it is an old design with limits on modernization. And we don't actually build new tanks. Further, the Army Science Board doesn't see it being a first-line vehicle by 2040. What comes next?

Russia is lying about the health of its economy. Of course it is.

NATO--and perhaps China, as well--pales as a threat to Russia compared to demographics: "Russia's economy has a dire demographic problem on its hands, and the nation could see its population slashed in half by the end of the century, an Atlantic Council report says." Waging war doesn't help.

Can HTS "bring together a patchwork of former rebel groups, each with their own leaders and ideology"? Southern non-HTS rebels declined to show restraint when outside powers tried to include Assad (and save him?) in talks. The Syrian multi-war seems to be evolving rather than ending after the fall of Assad.

I assume we consume these faster than me make them: "The U.S. Navy’s use of expendable Nulka decoys in combat has highlighted the need to expand the ability of its ships to launch off-board decoying electronic attacks, including ones lasting tens of minutes or more."

Even if South Korean President Yoon's reasons for declaring martial law were illegal, has the opposition illegally escalated the dispute to a crisis, justifying his concern even if martial law was not justified? I've been hesitant to make a firm judgment on this crisis. Perhaps justifiably. Who are the insurrectionists?

If Israelis define victory over Hamas as getting their (surviving) hostages back, Israel guarantees every rabid jihadi enemy will take even more hostages. 

Russia has a lot of problems but seems to want to do or die trying to conquer Ukraine. Strategersky.

America's and China's geography intersect at naval power (which included air power). As I've long said, whatever our problems are with geography and the tyranny of distance, I wouldn't trade places with China. Time has eroded our military advantage since I wrote that. But the geography remains the same.

Surge of support: "DoD will begin augmenting its forces at the southwest border with an additional ~1500 ground personnel, as well as helicopters with associated crews, and intelligence analysts to support increased detection and monitoring efforts."

Right now our interests have good overlap: "Boosting India’s naval capabilities is one of the best ways the United States can counter Beijing’s rising power in the Indian Ocean, an expert in South Asian security said Wednesday." India definitely needs better naval capabilities for its own defense needs.

The Army could get hammered: "The strategy targets both the Army’s active-duty cohort and the National Guard and calls for deactivation of four Stryker brigades, six infantry brigades and two aviation brigades." In 1997, with similar thoughts in the air, I wrote this paper. Add in this, this, this, and this, too. Sigh.

The facade is flimsy: "President Vladimir Putin has grown increasingly concerned about distortions in Russia's wartime economy, just as Donald Trump pushes for an end to the Ukraine conflict, five sources with knowledge of the situation told Reuters."

Make it so: "On Wednesday, Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, reintroduced the Protecting Military Installations and Ranges Act, which requires a review by federal authorities before entities linked to China, Russia, Iran or North Korea can purchase land within 100 miles of an armed forces installation."

Pirate vessels should be sunk on sight: "The Somali pirates are back in action. It’s been eleven years since the last outbreak of piracy in the Red Sea. Violence against commercial shipping in the Red Sea region began in 2010 when it had reached levels of activity not seen in over a century."

Holding the initiative papers over this problem: "As Russian conscripts and newly acquired contract soldiers continued to suffer casualties in Ukraine, the quality of those troops and their willingness to fight declined. This was accelerated by the even greater decline in the number of combat officers available." 

The Quad (Australia, India, Japan, and the United States) eases into defense cooperation. 

Ukraine says North Korea will send short-range ballistic missiles, artillery, and ammunition to Russia this year.

It is unclear if survivors of the first wave will go home: "North Korea will reportedly deploy new military personnel to Russia by mid-March 2025, likely to maintain the current pace and intensity of attritional, infantry-led assaults in Kursk Oblast." Does Kim want "infected" troops who saw the outside world back?

The jihad takes many forms. Sometimes it is flying planes into our buildings. Sometimes it is driving around little girls to be gang-r*ped. Sadly, too many Westerners feel too fashionably guilty to object to any of it. Asking again, why do we hate us? Tip to Instapundit.

Russia is running out of troops. I've been suspicious of Russia's claim of an ever-expanding horde.

Make Haiti less of a Hell hole again. The expert for Haiti appointed by the U.N. called Haiti "apocalyptic." What would we do without U.N. experts? Maybe the U.N. should give Singapore a 20-year contract to set up an economy and government there.

No! Way! "Israeli hostages released as part of the recent ceasefire with Hamas have claimed they were held in a U.N. camp in Gaza."

I ignore ProPublica, but our new icebreaker saga rings true: "it has a type of propulsion system susceptible to failure in ice. Its waste and discharge systems weren’t designed to meet polar code, its helicopter pad is in the wrong place to launch rescue operations and its rear deck is easily swamped by big waves." Sigh.

So the ef what? "Europe considers sending troops to Ukraine if there's a ceasefire. But would Russia accept?" Ukraine and any donating states are sovereign and not bound by what Russia would accept. Russia should not be granted a veto on Western security steps.

Something new: "Ukraine is carrying out more attacks on targets deep inside Russia using a new generation of long-range drones. Ukraine is also producing over 100,000 drones a month, including more new types, especially those for attacking targets thousands of kilometers away"

Talk to him rather than Hegseth? "U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will visit Panama during his first overseas trip in the post, a source told Reuters on Thursday, as President Donald Trump makes a push for the United States to take back the Panama Canal that has angered the Central American country." 

A Ukrainian Leopard I up-armored with reactive armor and added engine protection endured a lot of hits before being knocked out, although the crew survived and the extent of the damage is unclear.

Collective defense: "Two Bundeswehr Patriot systems are set to protect a strategically important airport near Rzeszow in south-east Poland that is key to supplying war-torn Ukraine for the next six months."

That's a mobile war crime: "A North Korean multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) designed to be disguised as a common truck looks to have appeared in Russia’s Kursk region." It puts civilian vehicles at risk because an enemy can't distinguish civilian from military vehicles. 

Without stealth, Ukrainian pilots are using low-level flying tactics to avoid being targeted by air defense systems until they pop up to execute their mission. In the Cold War, this was something American pilots practiced Persian Gulf War experience led us to abandon that approach. Helicopters flew low, too.

LOL: "A senior Russian official has said that Moscow will counter any moves by Western military alliance NATO to dominate the Baltic Sea."  

Bouncing the legal rubble: "The Philippines will soon decide on an international platform to sue China for alleged damage to the marine environment, its justice minister said, as it pursues a second highdoesn't need no stinkin' rulings. 

It's only legal under China's "law": "China's coast guard said the Philippines on Friday sent a civilian vessel to deliver provisions to its warship 'illegally grounded' at Second Thomas Shoal, a disputed atoll in the South China Sea." It's the Asian outpost of freedom (sorry Hong Kong).

Decision dominance: "Senior Army leaders established and iterated data-centric policy from as far back as 2021 for the Army to move directly toward rapidly enabling commander decisions with live data to achieve overmatch of our adversaries on future battlefields." Just don't sink to data-overload paralysis.

I hope this is just the opening position for negotiations on terms: "President Donald Trump wants to withdraw 20,000 U.S. troops from Europe and demand a subsidy from allies to pay for the remaining American military presence on the Continent, Italy’s leading news agency reported this week."

An essay on "the Panama Canal's physical and political vulnerabilities, to include 'criminal, enemy saboteur, sea drone and air drone threats' to the canal and as well as 'U.S. hemispheric maritime commerce and infrastructure.'" Obviously, China is a problem. Let the diplomacy begin.

Honestly, with all the propaganda about the F-35 (buyers and pilots love them), I assume we prioritized aircraft production over spare parts: "All three variants of the relatively new F-35 Joint Strike Fighter have failed to hit readiness targets entirely. " With F-35s in U.S. and allied arsenals, readiness will improve.

Russia wages war on NATO in the electronic spectrum: "In late 2024, northern Finland once more suffered electronic jamming problems against GPS and the commercial GNSS system used by commercial shipping." It's not kinetics, but it's war. And could kill. Most targets won't admit Russia is attacking.

Is the party over? "China continues trying to make the best of a bad situation they cannot seem to control; a shrinking population, a workforce that is shrinking even faster and markets for its exports leveling off." The CCP has based the legitimacy of its monopoly on political power on economic growth.

Russia is used to foreigners believing its BS: "Russian President Vladimir Putin is once again attempting to obfuscate his unwillingness to participate in good-faith negotiations to end the war by blaming Ukraine for defending itself against Russia's invasion and illegal annexation of Ukrainian territory."

Putin says Ukraine must be eliminated because of the dread Nazi threat. He could declare America must be de-Nazified just by citing our own media. Tip to Instapundit.

Foreign peacekeepers may come and go, but the Haiti gangs abide: "The reality is that the large criminal gang militias have become private armies that do what they want."

Island hopping in the west Pacific: "Japan continues to expand its navy by adding some amphibious and transport ships. These will be used to supply troops stationed on small islands in the Ryukus, a chain of islands between Japan and Taiwan." 

Still not completely sure who is pure in this drama: "South Korea's prosecutors indicted President Yoon Suk Yeol on Sunday on charges of leading an insurrection with his short-lived imposition of martial law on Dec. 3, the main opposition party said." 

It's not safe to withdraw if Hezbollah can return: "Tensions erupted in southern Lebanon on Sunday after the deadline expired for Israeli troops to withdraw as part of a ceasefire deal reached between Israel and the Iranian-allied Lebanese Hezbollah movement." 

Well if China is offering reassurances ... : "China has tried to reassure India over its plans for a mega dam in the Tibetan Plateau, which has prompted fears it will cause water shortages and damage the environment, by saying it will not try to benefit at the 'expense of its neighbours'." 

Lukashenko has been the self-described dictator of Belarus since independence. He will be "re-elected" this month (funny how autocrats pay tribute to democracy with fake elections). Will he take Belarus full circle back to part of Russia? Are Belarusians doomed to being led into the larger gulag?

Whether it is incompetence or "malicious compliance" (much like slashing a public library's hours rather than lay off an administrator when a library get a budget increase less than desired), the military needs a good Roman decimation. Tip to Instapundit.

I'm ending updates to this post on the Last Hamas War. Any notable developments will either be posted in Weekend Data Dumps or posts here; or on Substack.

Unfinished Business in Iraq

Iran's collapse in Syria brings America opportunity in Iraq.

Iraq lives in a rough neighborhood. Iraq has asked the Iranians to rein in their PMF militias inside Iraq because they may attract American attention:

Sudani’s visit to Tehran comes after Iraqi media reports that the United States has pressured the Iraqi federal government to dissolve the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). Iraqi National Wisdom Movement head Ammar al Hakim stated on January 4 that the incoming Trump administration has warned the Iraqi federal government that it will “target” Iranian-backed Iraqi militias.

Because America unwisely abandoned Iraq in 2011, Iraqi fear of Iran without Americans around to help led Iraq's leadership to prioritize loyalty over military capabilities. And without Americans on the ground to monitor the situation, we were blinded to that deterioration. 

So when ISIL rose up, Iraqi security forces collapsed in the north. Iran exploited that opportunity to set up  PMF militias. After Iraq defeated ISIL in Iraq by recapturing the territory the "caliphate" held, many PMF units have looked to Iran for orders. We need to demobilize or bring under Iraqi control the PMF. 

ISW noted post-Assad developments in Iraq:

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani and Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reportedly agreed to preserve the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). The PMF is an Iraqi state security service that includes many Iranian-backed Iraqi militias. Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba, Kataib Hezbollah, and Kataib Sayyid al Shuhada all control brigades in the PMF. Khamenei opposes dissolving the PMF outright but may support the integration of the PMF into the Iraqi armed forces. The Iraqi federal government could reflag PMF brigades as new units, which would largely retain the units’ composition and structure. Integrating the PMF and Iranian-backed Iraqi militias into the Iraqi security establishment would more entrench the militias into the Iraqi security sector more thoroughly, which would enable deeper Iranian infiltration.

Is Iraq is confident that it can finish this job now that Iran is weakened by multiple defeats of its proxies fighting Israel and the loss of its Syria satrapy? Will America help Iraq purge pro-Iran elements? This is potentially good:

Iraq is trying to convince powerful armed factions in the country that have fought U.S. forces and fired rockets and drones at Israel to lay down their weapons or join official security forces, Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein said.

But absorbing pro-Iran militia units is risky. Iraq needs time without open conflict with Iran to shift unit loyalties to Iraq.

This news from ISW is comforting, too, indicating Iraq will resist any Iranian effort to re-open the jihadi "ratlines" through Syria to aim ISIL at Iraq if ISIL revives inside Syria:

The Anbar Province Police Command will reportedly assume responsibility for security in Anbar Province, Iraq, from Iranian-backed Iraqi militias.

We've never made enough progress on the PMF problem. But perhaps the pressure from Biden and the Trump warning means we will wage the Phase IX campaign in Iraq against Iran as part of a maximum pressure campaign against the nuke-seeking, mullah-run Iran that stokes regional mayhem.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it.

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Flickers of War in the Baltic Sea Region

The United States never recognized the Soviet conquest of the Baltic States. When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, those states were welcomed back as independent states. Russia has applied pressure on these NATO states that is a low-level war. Russia could ratchet that up in the future.

 A CRS report on the Baltic States, Russia's hybrid threat, and U.S. relations with those NATO allies:

Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine has intensified U.S. and NATO concerns about the potential threat of Russian military action against the Baltic states. The Baltic states have strongly supported Ukraine, including by providing military assistance and imposing sanctions against Russia that go beyond those adopted by the EU. The Baltic states have been increasing their defense spending and seeking to build up their military capabilities, although their defense planning continues to rely heavily on their NATO membership. The Baltic states exceed NATO’s target for member states to spend at least 2% of gross domestic product on defense.

The Baltic states have experienced various hybrid warfare attacks, attributed predominantly to Russia but also to China. Hybrid threats to the Baltic states include disinformation campaigns, cyberattacks, sabotage, and weaponized migration. The Baltic states have sought to strengthen their societal resilience to hybrid threats, and NATO leaders have sought to increase member countries’ cooperation on countering hybrid warfare tactics.

I think the Baltic region is the area NATO should focus on--as long as Ukraine stands and shields the NATO states west of Ukraine. I have specific thoughts on the security of Narva, Estonia, against a high-end form of so-called hybrid warfare in the latest Army magazine. I expanded on that in Substack. 

The Baltic State members of NATO organized a summit in Helsinki focused on defeating sabotage in the Baltic Sea. NATO forces have been committed to the defense of undersea infrastructure from such attacks.

And as long as I'm in the neighborhood, hybrid war is simply aggression that Russia denies--and the West goes along with that fiction. Until now.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it.

Averting Our Eyes From Islamist Supremacists

The New Orleans New Year's Day terror attack reminded America that ISIL (or ISIS, or simply the Islamic State as it once existed before Iraq War 2.0 defeated it) is still out their organizing and inspiring mass murder. When only one side "ends" a war, the other side gets a free shot to kill in a war that never really ended.

Killers gotta kill: "The jihadist worldview exemplified by ISIS has not been vanquished. On the contrary: It is resurgent." 

We fled Afghanistan, think about doing that (again) in Iraq, and otherwise do not seem to prioritize mowing the jihadi grass until the Islamic world resolves its jihadi problem. That initial author rightly concludes:

I am not arguing that we re-invade Afghanistan tomorrow. Nor am I saying that a more assertive U.S. foreign policy would end every threat to the homeland. My argument is that the way to reduce the ISIS threat, foreign and domestic, is to take the fight to the evildoers. Don't pretend jihadists can be left to their own devices. Put them on the defensive. Thin out their ranks, dry up their finances, keep them on the run. Then ISIS's ability to inspire will wane. And justice will be done for the people of New Orleans.

And the jihadis of course have opportunities in Syria:

The United States does not need to engage in nation-building but must continue its support for the Syrian Democratic Forces. This support is essential to prevent a resurgence of the Islamic State group and to monitor the HTS-led government, discouraging it from developing into an extremist regime akin to the Taliban.

I have low confidence that "tame" HTS jihadis are an actual thing who can restrict the glorious caliphate to a national border, even if HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa is sincere in his claims he is one:

Despite his successful charm offensive in recent weeks, the question remains whether Sharaa will construct a moderate Islamist regime that acts as a responsible state actor or an extremist regime that terrorizes the ethnic and religious minorities in Syria and provides support to the global jihadist cause.

We can't count on a kinder and gentler Jihad 2.0 any more than Taliban 2.0 was a thing. Fight back against jihadis with LeadOps, I say.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it.

Rewarding Persistent Enemies

Bush 43 won the Iraq War, defeating a series of enemies. Obama lost and then began Iraq War 2.0 against ISIL. Trump won Iraq War 2.0. And Biden has negotiated another premature departure. Will Trump complete that, including a withdrawal from Syria, and risk either losing Iraq or creating Iraq War 3.0?*

The United States has troops inside eastern Syria in the SDF area to help our Kurdish-led allies fight ISIL remnants, hold ISIL prisoners, and screen Iraq from infiltration from Syria, which was deadly during the Iraq War. American troops are also stationed at the Syria-Jordan-Iraq border to fight infiltration in the Al Tanf Deconfliction Zone. The total is about 2,000. There was a kerfuffle when the figure was learned to be double that. But it was mostly a fake issue given that we traditionally don't say where our special forces are.

I'm sympathetic to calls to get out of Syria:

For the sake of argument, I'll pretend to be agnostic on the issue of whether American forces belong in Syria, and I invite you to join me in being momentarily open-minded. In our tabula rasa state, if there's a case for being in Syria... let the President of the United States — or, more likely, one of his minions — MAKE THE CASE.

And I fully want our leaders to make the case. And the case includes preventing ISIL from regenerating inside Syria. ISIL is a threat from Syria to Iraq to New Orleans.

If our departure allows the 40,000 ISIL members (including fighters and their families) to escape their imprisonment by the Kurds in eastern Syria prison camps, Iraq could again be under threat from jihadis which will risk losing our still-fragile victory in Iraq to Iranian influence. The Iranian ability to undermine Iraq from Syria is obviously crippled. But that victory would be nullified by letting ISIL become a major threat again. That would be a direct threat , obviously. But it would also enable Iran to strengthen its hold on Iraqis who will need help to defeat the jihadis--the same threat that enabled Iran to create pro-Iran militias in Iraq after Iraq's security forces in the north collapsed in 2014 in the face of the original ISIL uprising/invasion.

Already, we found we had to respond to the threat: 

F-16s and F-15s carried out airstrikes against ISIS fighters operating in Iraq’s Hamrin Mountains. U.S. Air Force A-10s, which were called in to support ground forces, were successful in killing Islamic State militants fighting in the cave, [CENTCOM] said.

Ceding eastern Syria to ISIL won't help our national security if ISIL revives and Iran exploits Iraqi Shia fear of Sunni Arab terrorism. Will fellow jihadis in HTS really fight ISIL for us? And ultimately, ceding Iraq to Iran whicht can exploit ISIL advances inside Iraq is no way to exert maximum pressure on Iran, if that is our future policy toward mullah-run Iran.

And yes, we won the Iraq War. 

*You can make the case that the 1990-1991 Persian Gulf War the first Iraq War. I tend not to because the objective was more narrow--liberating Kuwait from Saddam and containing Iraq--rather than eliminating Iraq as a threat. And it seemed more like the end of the Cold War, a symbolic victory over the USSR by smashing Iraq's Soviet arsenal.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it.

Did I Feel the Vibe Shift Coming?

Was my decision to refrain from domestic issues commentary on TDR back in the spring a reflection of the so-called vibe shift in American society that rejects woke politics? I think the ease of staying in my lanes was bolstered by a subconscious conclusion that America had finally reached Peak Stupid. Yet facts don't care about my feelings. So we'll have to see how things unfold. But I'm now optimistic in the near term rather than just in the long term as I've felt for a decade and a half.

Back in April I vowed to stop commenting on domestic political issues. My lanes are national security and defense issues. And I wanted to return to my roots. Plenty of other people take on politics. Why do I need to do it, too? Even if I really think I have a massively clever observation or meme to contribute? It's been easier than I thought it would be. And I've tried and failed before to stop, scale back, or limit the scope of out-of-lane commentary. So why was this easy?

When I started blogging it was easy to stay in my lanes. I worked for the state legislature as a non-partisan research analyst. So it was easy to not offer my opinion on things within the state legislature's scope of responsibility. Staff from both parties trusted me and many of both parties seemed to assume I was with them. And I really was with them. I was with all of them. My job was to provide information. Nobody elected me and if I ever got the notion I knew more or had more right to guide policy, I could damn well leave my office and run for political office.

And practically speaking, I was an at-will employee. My hiring had been confirmed by a joint committee of the legislature and I could be fired for any reason whatever with no notice required for longer than it would be required to fill a box with my personal stuff. I had children to take care of. There were really high curbs for my lane. Even after the election of President Obama. That's when the woke partisan anger was really born. And after I retired early in his presidency it was easy to drive over the curbs.

Why do that? Well, it was hard not to comment on what seemed like insanity. Or perhaps dishonesty. Unfair insanity/dishonesty. Rage-fueled, unfair insanity/dishonesty. Punitive, unfair, rage-fueled insanity/dishonesty. Punitive, unfair, media-sustained, rage-fueled insanity/dishonesty that was undermining our basic freedoms. I was outraged at this. In a dignified sort of way, naturally.

I'm only human!

So for several years I commented on politics and other issues, in addition to national security and defense issues. A series of decisions to reduce my number of posts did help to contain that urge. And the election of President Trump in 2016 fed my sense of outrage at the unfairness of it all. The attacks on him--and more importantly, on his supporters--seemed so unfair and unjustified that it drove me to comment even more outside my lanes. But eventually the Weekend Data Dump provided an outlet for that with no limits. As I eventually began to write, "You think you hate and distrust the media enough. You do not." 

And consider that I started out despising Trump as a typical big-spending New York City liberal masquerading as a Republican! There was plenty for me to criticize! Couldn't his foes stick to what he did? Why make stuff up or turn the outrage dial to eleven over every banal issue?! The simple fact that he was treated so unfairly allowed me to judge him more rationally. I don't do hero worship. Ever. So that didn't--and won't--happen.

So that was my mode for four years. And the election of President Biden didn't ease the sources of my outrage. I was ready to move on from Trump but the left just couldn't quit him. The unfairness was turned to 11. And a constellation of woke activists seemed to take control behind the facade of a centrist politician. The media mocked and demonized any expression of the bloody obvious that questioned woke orthodoxy in many areas. So my ratio of dignified-to-rant remained lower than I was comfortable with. Not true-believer level or even close. But over the line by my standards. I remained uncomfortable straying outside my lanes even as I tried to fence off political commentaries away from national security and defense issues. 

To be clear, I remained very consistent within my lanes across presidential administrations. But I worried I might turn off some readers by my political commentary. I hadn't let my beliefs interfere with my career responsibilities. Yet I gave my bosses no reason to doubt me because my work spoke for itself without my commentary on irrelevant issues undermining it. So in the spring, April 28, 2024 to be specific, I swore off swerving out of my lanes:

I'm having another bout of "Jesus, I hate commenting on politics." Despite my concerns over rule of law, media bias, freedom of speech, global warming hysteria, free markets, and woke Peak Stupid issues, I resolve to let others take those on and stay in my national security lanes in Weekend Data Dumps.🤞

I obviously feared I'd fall off the wagon all too easily--as I had before. Although I don't know if I ever put my resolve down on "paper" ahead of time until last year.

A week later, I observed:

I've avoided political--or even just interesting non-security--news and issues this week. It's difficult. And some issues span the firewall. Which makes this tougher than expected. A work in progress.

Yet I have not faltered. Two assassination attempts and a palace coup shortly after I made my vow did not shake my resolve. Sure, there have been some Weekend Data Dump entries that touched on political issues, but I've been very good. I know I made one meme that touched on politics, but I thought it was humorous more than anything. Really, I've been extremely good through a very tough campaign where the things that could outrage my sense of fairness truly were turned to 11.

And perhaps part of my decision to start writing on Substack, too (The Dignified Rant: Evolved--go ahead and subscribe, eh?), was wanting a clean slate for national security and defense issues without the baggage of TDR archives.

Since Trump won the 2024 election, the publicly proclaimed rage and Resistance of 2016 did not reappear. So-called Hitler was basically accepted. Woke trends began to slide in reverse and it really did seem like we'd reached Peak Stupid at long last. People began to comment on this "vibe shift" on a broad front of issues.

Had I felt that so-called vibe shift in April? I had been confident that Trump would win. My confidence may have slackened a bit initially when Harris became the Democratic candidate who the media lifted on their wings. But my concern didn't last. And before the election I had written down in a note on my phone--which still retains its pre-election date stamp--that I thought Trump would get 316 electoral votes. I was wrong only on New Hampshire.

I think that confidence sustained my resolve to stay in my lanes because I felt the source of my outrage was dissipating and could weaken to the point of irrelevancy to the wider society.

Now, who knows what the next four years will bring? This is no mission accomplished moment on my part. We are at the end of the beginning and not the beginning of the end. But the woke ratchet of insanity relentlessly climbing up Mount Stupid is at least checked. It doesn't mean that I won't disagree with Trump policies in some or many areas. I don't expect "my" side to be perfect in ends or means. I just expect it to be 60%. And it doesn't mean the woke will stop fighting for their Red Guard activities from their bastions in the federal bureaucracy, non-profits, universities, and media. 

But as long as I stay in my lanes, that's probably a good sign that things are progressing within the boundaries of normal politics subject to rule of law and public audit by credible elections.

Boy, I really am an optimist.

I now resume regular broadcasting.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it.

The Winter War of 2022 Relives 1918

The war goes on. However much Russia is being bled during its slow, grinding offensives, it is still advancing. Ukraine has not demonstrated any ability to launch counter-attacks to punish Russian advances in salients that should be vulnerable. Russian troops in newly captured territory lack fortifications and protective minefields. Yet Ukraine can't manage more than small local counter-attacks. How do you judge who is winning in these conditions?

Russia continues to batter forward in the Donbas while throwing North Koreans at Ukraine's Kursk Salient inside Russia. Meanwhile, Ukraine expands its strategic warfare targeting Russian logistics and command-and-control.

ISW has noted several times that Russia seems to be advancing not for a particular geographic objective but to gain acreage for how that looks and the presumed effect of seeing the front line move in Russia's advantage:

Russian forces are currently attempting to envelop Pokrovsk from the south and northeast but have thus far failed to make significant recent progress in this effort. Russian forces may also at least temporarily be shifting their focus from the envelopment of Pokrovsk to making opportunistic advances due west towards the Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border during a critical moment of Russia's ongoing efforts to undermine Western support for Ukraine. 

Is Russia's increased conquests in 2024 compared to 2023 the result of this possible explanation on a wider front?

If so, this may reflect the German 1918 offensives on the Western Front that looked spectacular and threatening by acreage captured but which lacked any real decisive geographic objective, as a Bundewehr official historian wrote in 2016 (In The Generals' War, p. 193):

There was no clear operational line connecting the offensive at all. Depending on their success, OHL allowed successful attacks to continue instead of focusing on clear operational objectives. Consequently, Operation MICHAEL and all the follow-on offensives got lost in an eccentric operational void. In the end, the German forces won engagements, but no battles that were decisive for the outcome of the war. One cannot help thinking that the German Staff in the person of Ludendorf focused exclusively on the tactical challenges of trench warfare, while completely forgetting the operational skills.

Is the person of Putin doing the same thing now?

Of course, if Russia's ground forces culminate and lose their will to fight, Ukraine doesn't seem to have the men and materiel that the Western Allies had to exploit the exhaustion of the German army. If that's the case, then all Ukraine gets is a respite while Russia rebuilds men and materiel reserves to resume the offensive. That's one lesson of the Iran-Iraq War in an era when conventional war was believed to be inherently brief.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War and the related Syria events in this post.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I continue posting here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.  

All for one and one for all: "Sweden will contribute up to three warships to a NATO effort to increase the alliance's presence in the Baltic Sea as it tries to guard against sabotage of underwater infrastructure, the government said Sunday."Plus coast guard vessels and some aircraft.

But will it be decisive? "The army in Sudan says it has captured a key city in the country's east, one of its biggest gains yet in an almost two-year-long war against rebel forces." All I know for sure is that abandoning colonial borders and splitting off South Sudan didn't end conflict.

Yeah: "While Iranian offensive capabilities have been neutralized, they have not been eliminated. Iran can rebuild. There can be no peace in the Middle East as long as Iranian interference continues. ... interference stems from Iranian internal problems as well as Iranian efforts to dominate the region." Cut the knot.

A growing pile of dead North Korean soldiers isn't changing the basic situation in the Winter War of 2022: "Unlike World War II, the Russians invaded Ukraine and are losing. Russia’s ability to continue the war is clearly less than Ukraine’s provided NATO and US support continues." Probably "less than".

There seems to be something wrong with our bloody flag officers today. The design for the Navy's next destroyer lacks even a single still-vital dual purpose 5" gun as well as adequate windows for the Mark I eyeballs as the situational awareness of last resort.

Well that's a positive change: "The Army is already nearly halfway to meeting its ambitious goal of recruiting 61,000 active-duty soldiers during this fiscal year, according to internal data reviewed by Military.com." Pre-boot camp training is given the credit.

The California National Guard is needed to cope with Los Angeles fires.

Oops: "The Polish defense minister dismissed a high-ranking general who is allegedly responsible for losing anti-tank mines eventually found in IKEA warehouse, Polish news outlet Onet reports." Sadly, nobody could reassemble the mines.

I worry our bureaucracy takes a cheap weapon and makes it a needlessly expensive one: "The Army is scouring industry for unmanned aircraft systems to launch from medium- or high-altitude platforms that would perform tasks like intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance[.]"

As I often say, the soldier is the weapon--not what the soldier carries, even a spoon.

The proto-empress is fine! Mind your own business, peasants! "The European Commission denied on Monday that it had tried to cover up the state of health of its president, Ursula von der Leyen, after the head of the EU’s executive branch was hospitalized with severe pneumonia." She'll go back to work soon.

I think this is a fair evaluation of Ukraine's Kursk incursion. Could Ukraine withdraw if it saw the costs exceeding the benefits? Or is holding the ground the end rather than the means at this point?

Spilling oil rather than blood: "Ukraine’s battlefield experience reflects a shift toward unmanned systems that augment or attempt to replace human operators in the most dangerous missions, and against an enemy willing to send more and more manpower into large-scale frontal assaults."

Yeah, calling it "hybrid war" obscures the "war" part: "When Russia targets other European neighbors, though, the West resorts to its own euphemisms to avoid directly acknowledging what Putin is doing." Basically, Russia attacks a country while denying it is doing so. And the West goes along with that lie.

Via Instapundit, a "former" Russian mercenary apparently from Kazaksstan was caught crossing into America illegally across the Mexico border carrying a drone. That's odd. Why bring in a drone when he could buy one here? And it is unclear if he was released or not.

Well, it's preparation of a sort: "American troops recently joined a 12-nation parachute drill near Tokyo to hone skills needed to recapture remote islands." It's not even as good as racing China to an island to get there first.

Denmark's "peace dividend" became a vulnerability debt. Tip to Instapundit.

Decoys: " Italian defense firm Leonardo recently developed BriteStorm, a more capable disposable air-launched decoy to protect aircraft from enemy aerial and ground based air defenses."

Listening to senators who oppose Hegseth as DOD secretary wrongly--or dishonestly--claim his opposition to lax standards for the small percentage of combat arms that allow more women to qualify means he opposes women in the rest of the military. It is frustrating to watch this disinformation.

Russia's war on Ukraine is wrecking Russia's ability to project power around its borders. Which also mean to defend Russia's long borders, I judge.

I'm never sure if these are tests are just using expiring missiles for propaganda: "North Korea fired several suspected short-range ballistic missiles off its eastern coast Tuesday morning in its second day of testing so far this year, according to the South’s Joint Chiefs of Staff."

Go Blue. Go away Red: "The University of Michigan will no longer partner with a Chinese university whose former students face federal charges after they were allegedly caught photographing a military base." 

I cited the non-NATO Joint Expeditionary Force, which is made up of NATO members, as having a role in defeating a Russian "little green men" invasion of Estonia that takes the border city of Narva in this Army article. Here's more on JEF. It's basically a framework for a British-led coalition of the willing.

Singing to the TDR choir: "The EU is a far bigger threat to democracy than Musk[.]" Seriously. 

Oh? "Peace seems to have broken out between India and China." It's a ceasefire. China took a step back. Perhaps to reload. Perhaps to focus on the western Pacific where the Philippines feels pushed "to the wall." But peace? No.

Weird: "The Idaho National Guard deployed 10 UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters and more than 80 soldiers to Ft. Belvoir, Va., on Jan. 10 and 11 in support of the Joint Emergency Evacuation Plan mission in the National Capital Region." Why the Guard? It's good training. But it isn't a defense or disaster mission.

The Navy is pondering how to arm its next destroyer class. And it needs a lot electrical power. Which has a lot of uses for future warships. Please include guns.

The Navy has fired over 400 missiles and shells for air defense missions in the Red Sea region: "120 SM-2 missiles, 80 SM-6 missiles, 160 rounds from destroyers and cruisers’ five-inch main guns, as well as a combined 20 Evolved Sea Sparrow Missiles (ESSM) and SM-3 missiles."

Germany will provide Ukraine with RCH 155 self-propelled howitzers and Boxer infantry fighting vehicles, both wheeled and based on the same chassis. Germany has stepped up to aid Ukraine. But it needs much more if it is to field more than three army divisions.

So-called "hybrid war" is nothing new: "A lot of what is proclaimed as new is just another case of old wine in new bottles. If you want solutions, look to the ones that worked in the past. Many still work or will with a few tweaks to account for new technology." Hybrid war isn't magic--it's denials all around.

Russia beefs of defenses in far-north Murmansk because: "Ukrainian drones are increasingly reaching their targets deep inside Russia. That means Russian economic and military facilities far from Ukraine are suddenly under attack."

The Marines gutted their close combat capabilities to field sea mobile anti-ship units. The Marines don't have the missiles or ships to do that. But at least those close combat capabilities are gutted! As I wondered about the Marines, "Don't sink. Don't shoot. What do you do?"

I do not deny that drones haven't had a large impact on the war in Ukraine. But I believe their success is in part driven by lack of counter-measures. Russian failures add to that but I don't know the scale of that. When counter-measures are developed, more expensive drones will be part of the combined arms effort.  

The latest CRS report to Congress on the Marine Littoral Regiment created under Force Design.

Yeah: "The geopolitical consequences of Ukraine’s defeat would reverberate across the global system in disastrous ways for U.S. security." Russia strengthened; enemies encouraged; allies discouraged; the need for much more defense spending; and nuclear proliferation, for example.

Developments is South Korea's political drama. Weird martial law coup attempt, political dispute run amok, pre-civil war, or ... what? It could damage South Korea's democracy if not addressed and resolved. Rule of law is valuable and fragile, people. Tip to Instapundit.

Russia's isolated outpost in the Balkans--Serbia--doesn't think fellow Slav Russia is its protector: "As international sanctions continue to pressure Moscow, Belgrade is now shopping for military gear in other countries, such as Israel and China, but also in the West."

SM-3 production capacity will be increased.

Israel has cleared a path to strike Iran from the air through Syria. With an assist of the collapse of the Assad regime and Iran's retreat from Syria. Further, de-fanging Hezbollah eliminates Iran's primary retaliation option.

Sure: "Japan and the Philippines will convey to President-elect Donald Trump the urgent need for the U.S. to remain committed to help uphold the rule of law in an Asian region where security concerns have become 'increasingly severe,' Japan’s top diplomat said Wednesday."

Good: " Britain’s government confirmed Wednesday that it will not finalize a deal to hand over sovereignty of the contested Chagos Islands to Mauritius until President-elect Donald Trump’s administration is consulted." We need that base. If Britain needs backing, provide it.

Good: "India’s navy on Wednesday simultaneously launched a submarine, a destroyer and a frigate built at a state-run shipyard, underscoring the importance of protecting the Indian Ocean region through which 95% of the country’s trade moves amid a strong Chinese presence." A lot of China's trade sails there, too.

The Navy wants more affordable commercial ships than the LAW/LSM could provide to move Marines around the Pacific. Our heavily protected warships need to be careful in that contested environment. So good luck Marines at the ass end of nowhere.

Good experience for facing off against Chinese aggression in the South China Sea: "The United States Coast Guard arrested human smugglers who crashed into their patrol boat during a getaway attempt and attacked them, according to court documents."

This complaint is BS: "Reported Trump ‘loyalty tests’ for national-security officials draw criticism[.]" The issue is staff loyalty to the Constitution and following lawful orders of the president. The problem was that too many were loyal to those out of power who opposed Trump the last term. I managed this in my career.

Yes: "Islamic terrorism is more of a threat to Moslems than anyone else, including the United States and Israel." This is why I've often described the West's war with Islamists as basically collateral damage in an Islamic Civil War to decide if normal people--who need our help--or bloody fanatics define Islam. 

Via Instapundit, Putin's Potemkin Steamroller: "The most important thing Russian President Vladimir Putin tries to impress on Ukraine’s western friends is that he has time on his side, so the only way to end the war is to accommodate his wishes." His economy is not as resilient or successful as he pretends it is.

Canada must become an Arctic superpower. Endorsed! 

The West is using the interest from Russian deposits frozen in the West  to help Ukraine resist Russia's invasion. Given that Russia is selling wheat harvested from Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory, couldn't the West identify that trade and subtract the value of that from the principle to send it   to Ukraine?

How Putin betrayed American hope for change. Putin is one of many suit-wearing thugs who Westerners see reflecting their own fantasies of cultivating a man "we can do business with" and turn a foe into a friend. That never turns out well.

A call to exploit China's ASW weaknesses and sea trade routes by using undersea weapons, including mines, to operate close to China with less risk than air or surface assets to deter China. There are no silver bullets. But exploiting our advantages and enemy weaknesses is surely a good way to start. 

This article notes that in the former Soviet "stans" of Central Asia, China has greater economic interests while Russia has greater security ties. Sure, Russia is not weakened as much as the West would like. But I believe this asymmetrical balance gives China the advantage because the flag will follow trade.

Another former imperial state with centuries of being a colonial ruler seeks to restore its Ottoman era imperial glory: "The Mediterranean has always been a theater of rivalries, shifting alliances, and calculated gambles, and Turkey has once again thrown its dice."

Sort it out, ROK! "The South Korean authorities discovered a 164-foot tall and wide steel framework installed by the PRC within the Provisional Measures Zones (PMZ) of the Yellow Sea in December 2024. This installation is part of the PRC’s ongoing efforts to assert territorial control over the disputed [sea.]" 

As Russia continues its war on Ukraine, sanity, and needed good relations with NATO, let's go back a dozen years to my frustration with the path Russia had embarked on to reach this era of (hopefully) Peak Strategersky.

Ottoman glories beckon! "The Turkish navy is wrapping up the weeklong Mavi Vatan 2025 exercise this week, a large-scale operation meant to showcase Ankara’s strategic maritime ambitions in the region and beyond." Ambitions for influence or dominance in former realms.

Rising sun: "While Japan’s Cabinet has approved a record defense budget for 2025, the 13th growth year in a row, Tokyo’s military posture vis-à-vis regional threats remains a work on progress, according a U.S. analyst." China shot itself in the foot regarding Japan.

American warships in the Red Sea are gone for weeks to reload. It's a "challenge" there. Against China, every swinging hull in the fight would matter every day.

The 100-year pact between Britain and Ukraine isn't a mutual defense treaty. But it is a very wide-ranging pact for cooperation that strengthens Ukraine.

Germany's plan that I mentioned before to create a reserve internal security army division.

Patriot air defense batteries are combat proven and many nations--including Ukraine--have them. The replacement will need to be mobile to survive new threats. With a digression (because they can!) into sanctions-related potential unrest in Russia.

As Secretary of Defense Austin ends his uninspiring tenure, I must say that I have massive and enduring respect for his command of Third Infantry Division, which set the Middle East land speed record during the Iraq War invasion. Best of wishes.

Tension: "The Philippine navy said on Friday its ships were holding drills near a contested shoal in the South China Sea, a day after Manila and Beijing agreed to seek common ground and find ways to cooperate despite ongoing disputes." 

A Navy ship's helicopter--a first for the Navy--shot down a Houthi drone in the Red Sea. Was it a machine gun, guided 70mm rocket, or a Hellfire missile--or something else? I recall that in the Falklands War, helicopters were the last-ditch passive defense for British warships. Egad, eh?

The UAE is likely building an airfield on Abd al-Kuri Island at the southern outlet of the Red Sea off of Yemen.

A Russian S-400 air defense system locked on to a French maritime patrol craft flying over international waters in the Baltic Sea. Russia counts on a plane crew not being worried enough to fire off an anti-radiation missile to take out the radar.

Britain designed and built with Danish financial assistance the "FrankenSAM" Gravehawk mobile air defense system for Ukraine that can use existing Ukrainian air-to-air missiles.

Good: "The U.S. Navy carried out a crash program last year to enable Freedom class littoral combat ships (LCS) armed with radar-guided AGM-114L Longbow Hellfire missiles to fire those weapons against uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) — in other words, drones." But now offensive missions take the back seat.

The Battle for the Red Sea drags on.

Drones versus warships. Ukraine is certainly effective in using them as anti-access/area denial weapons. But they rely on NATO recon and targeting data. Anti-ship missiles would be much more effective with that data. It seems Russia pulled back because the cost wasn't worth the benefit of challenging the threat.

The Axis of Countries Getting Their Asses Kicked forms: "Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed the Russia-Iran Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement on January 17." Does China want these anchors pulling it down? They are alerting--not distracting--the West.

Well, the best Detroit Lions regular season ever ended prematurely. One can say our injury-ravaged defense finally caught up with us. But we've coped up to now. The sad fact is that we turned the ball over too many times. The Commanders voted too, and defeated us.

For some class of Westerners, the primary worry is always the backlash rather than the actual lash.

Industrialized Taiwan can't feed itself. Taiwan has prepared for a blockade by China: "Currently Taiwan has stockpiles of food that can feed the population for about seven months." And I noted the "dead-man's switch" Taiwan holds to get help before the food runs out.

Strategypage again notes the rise of drones in the Winter War of 2022, but also notes what I've long noted, that it was accelerated by a shortage of artillery. Ukraine ran low on artillery ammo and Russia ran out of gun barrels. When things settle down, small drones will be a valued part of combined arms operations.