And Now For Something Completely Different

Meme me now, I wish you would. (Meme me now) Meme me back to life. (Meme me now) Meme me blind, somebody should (Meme me now) From hollow into light.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

An Unexpected Opportunity Knocks

Is Putin really sure Xi is his best friend? Or has Putin's war allowed China to see different opportunities or at least different timelines in its rise to power?

 

As the West alarmed by Chinese power and ambitions focused on China, China found it's path to superpower status much more difficult. Could a Russia that has insanely decided war in the west is smart provide China with an unexpected and easier path to announcing it has arrived as a global power?

Arguing the Western response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine pushes Russia closer to China is silly. One, what were we to do? Accept a Russian victory? 

And "closer" doesn't describe Russia's turn to China. Deepening Russia's vassal status under China is what Putin is achieving. You ride that tiger, Vladimir! 

If Putin thought a short and glorious war would cement a buffer zone in Belarus and Ukraine, allowing Russia to pivot to defend its Far East from China with a cowed and compliant NATO at its rear, he was disastrously wrong.

Why is it potentially disastrously wrong? A history of control that Putin doesn't like to think about:

In December 2019 Russian political scientist Andrei Kalachinski told the Estonian publication Diplomaatia: "If a large state (i.e. China) grows stronger, it is logical that it starts thinking whether it has handed over too many of its territories in the past two centuries. China has managed to get back nearly all the former colonies, such as Macao and Hong Kong. For China, Primorsky Krai (Vladivostok area) is a part of the former Manchuria... (China) may deliver an ultimatum to us at some point on any old pretext. The British, the Germans, the Portuguese -- all of them have left the former territory of China. Only the Russians have remained. It is good that we have remained, but the devil only knows (what may come of this)."

Russian stumbles in Ukraine perhaps amplify the immediacy of that history. Sure, a "war-ravaged Russia has no strategic value to China." But with NATO energized and Russia flailing, China's assumptions about its rise to power are derailed. Might China alter its plans as its assumptions change? A war-ravaged Russia is a strategic opportunity for China.

Indeed:

China will never treat Russian President Vladimir Putin as an equal and will prove "ruthless" in any business dealings after crippling sanctions and a drawn-out invasion have left Russia vulnerable, according to a former Russian diplomat. 

China may view Russia not as a junior ally and not even as something once great to strip for parts. But as a target that can finally be hit.

If China was counting on keeping America busy in Europe, this is surely true: 

The CIA's director said Tuesday he believes China leader Xi Jinping has been "unsettled" by Russia's difficulties in invading Ukraine, and by how the war has brought the United States and Europe closer.

Russia's flailing might also be opportunity knocking for China. China may find that a dramatic shift in its foreign policy once again makes sense. The West may not trust China, but a Chinese dramatic turn against a vulnerable Russia that has stripped its Far East of military power would at least be tolerated by the West now.

I think Russia and China are frenemies with benefits. Russia is foolish to think it is uniquely special in Chinese eyes. Maybe taking Russia's Far East is too much for China to openly attempt any time soon. But Central Asia, which Russia lost when the USSR splintered, is another thing altogether in the short run for a major effort to increase Chinese influence at the expense of Russia. 

So consider this:

Over the past four decades, China has repeatedly shown that it can change course before it courts disaster. The question now is whether it can do so again under Xi.

Has China wrung all the benefits out of Russia that it can? Has Russia actually accelerated that Chinese calculation? What kind of change of course might Xi consider in today's new environment?

Please adjust your pucker factor accordingly.

[NOTE: I provide war updates at this post.]

The Ukrainian Model

Despite the obvious mutual hostility between Russia and NATO exacerbated by Putin's invasion of Ukraine, will NATO's aid to non-NATO Ukraine convince non-NATO Russia it is safe to pivot to face China?

 

After the Cold War there were two arguments about NATO alienating Russia that seemed particularly wrong in the entire genre of believing Russian paranoia could be appeased reassured in some way. One was the argument that NATO shouldn't have accepted membership requests from former Soviet vassals. The other was that NATO should have invited Russia into the defense organization. 

I've argued against the idea that NATO expansion was a mistake. Let me focus on the Russia-in-NATO angle and a possible way forward in light of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. In my view, Russia could never have been a member of NATO:

So don't become confused and believe that concessions to Russia, like New START, have any effect on Russia's views of the West. They believe what they believe, and facts be damned. Any lessening of tensions is a tactical reset by Moscow to get more from the West while they can get it.

Not to worry, however. The real threat to Russia will eventually deprive the Russians of their fantasy-based fiction of their victimhood at the hands of the West. Then there may be a real strategic reset with the West.

Of course, by the time it is obvious to even the most paranoid NATO-focused Russian that they've been ignoring the real threat of China, nobody in NATO will want to let Russia join NATO and push the alliance's front line all the way to the Amur River. Shoot, a lot weren't all that happy about pushing it east of the Elbe. 

I find it foolish to even think that extending NATO defense guarantees to Russia against China on the Amur River was a good idea. Russia needs western Russia to be a safe rear area in order to pivot to Asia, where the real threat to Russian territory is. Russia thought it could impose its will on NATO to get that safe area with a combination of buffer states and a broken NATO. But what if a functioning NATO is the best bet for Russia?

By invading Ukraine, Russia has undermined that supposed buffer, invigorated NATO, and ruined the military reputation Putin has spent so much propaganda elevating. Russia clearly didn't think NATO would arm Ukraine or that it didn't matter. But NATO (and other democracies) are eagerly shipping arms to Ukraine despite Ukraine being outside of NATO. And despite Russia's nuclear weapons.

Is it possible with some time--under a successor to Putin--that the Russians will realize that if it embraces rather than demonizes NATO that the same kind of non-alliance help could allow Russia hold its Far East against a China not content with Russia merely kneeling before the Middle Kingdom like a proper vassal? Despite China's nuclear power?

I'm looking for a path out of pointless Russian hostility toward NATO. If Russia loses but doubles down on hostility to Ukraine and NATO, worse may come down the line. So take this not as anything remotely a prediction but as a stab at imagining something good coming out of this horror. 

Although obviously, prior diplomacy was not some deep plan to achieve this. But maybe Indian diplomacy to end the Winter War of 2022 could start the process of flipping Russia.

[NOTE: I provide war updates at this post.]

Red Storm Rising?

Russia is demonstrating that its army and air support are inadequate for offensive operations. The West should welcome Russia investing inadequate defense resources in a prestige navy.

I think this is a major waste of Russian money. And as long as Russia is stubbornly hostile to the West, I welcome Russia's focus on retaining large Soviet-era ships: 

Why spend all that money on five aging warships? First, it’s about prestige. Any of these five ships can make long range cruises and do port visits in countries Russia is trying to impress, or intimidate. Second; practicality. By installing new and improved weapons on these ships they can be sent on these long voyages with minimal escorts (usually one destroyer or frigate) plus one supply ship. Finally, the upgrades do produce some major warships that not only look impressive but have some real combat power.

Imagine if that money had gone to improve Russia's army and air force?

Russia's blue water ambitions are self destructive. Russia needs SSBNs for a survivable nuclear deterrent, ships and submarines to defend those SSBNs in bastions off of northwestern and eastern Russia, and a glorified and well armed coast guard.

Otherwise, Russia has long borders on the Arctic Sea, in the west, in the Caucasus, in Central Asia, and in the Far East that need defending with ground and/or air power.

I think we should be happy if Russia builds new aircraft carriers. I salivate at the thought of the army and air force investments that would not be made to put those missile magnets to sea.

Of course, if Russia finally ends its pointless hostility toward the West and instead pivots to face the threats from China, never mind.

[NOTE: I provide war updates at this post.]

Shield and What Sword?

Does Israel retain hope it can bombard its way to victory against Hezbollah's civilian-killing rocket strategy under a laser shield?

Israel hopes to have laser air defenses: 

In early 2022 Israel announced that it was going to deploy a “laser wall” air defense system and do it in less than two years.

This would correct the major weakness of the rocket-based Iron Dome:

No anti-missile umbrella can stop all the missiles from hitting the ground. All it can do is protect little footprints under their dome.

The system was intended only to defend military targets, but was pressed into service to defend civilians, too. Which is more ammunition intensive. It just can't reliably kill the rain. And even if it can, it can't do it for long.

But it can buy time while the ammunition lasts. I've speculated about a big ground raid to dig out the launching sites and push deep into Hezbollah's administrative rear area to tear apart the terror group. I think that is the best use for that time.

But the urge to win from the air still seems persistently strong.

Is the laser wall an effort to affordably kill the rain and lessen the need to go on offense on the ground? Or even from the air?

Can lasers kill the rain?

[NOTE: I provide war updates at this post.]

Springtime for Putin and the Winter War of 2022

The Winter War of 2022 has entered another season. I find it hard to believe that Russia's military is far worse than even I believed.

Russia screwed up. Russian leaders believed Ukraine was ripe for collapse if just pushed a bit. The Russian military organized a large military parade into Ukrainian cities and was shocked to find itself at war. Ukraine bought time and a reason for the West to supply and support Ukraine to resist more effectively.

The latest ISW update states:

Russian forces around Kyiv are increasingly establishing defensive positions and preparing to deploy further artillery and fire control assets. Ukrainian forces repelled continuing Russian efforts to seize the city of Izyum, southeast of Kharkiv, and Russian forces did not conduct any other offensive operations in northeast Ukraine. Russian forces continue to make slow but steady progress on Luhansk Oblast and around Mariupol, but did not conduct any offensive operations towards Mykolayiv or Kryvyi Rih.

And if true--it is reported by the Ukrainians--this is a serious problem for the Russians: "Russian forces face mounting casualties among officers and increasingly frequent desertion and insubordination."

This is in addition to Saturday's that stated:

The doctrinally sound Russian response to this situation would be to end this campaign, accept a possibly lengthy operational pause, develop the plan for a new campaign, build up resources for that new campaign, and launch it when the resources and other conditions are ready. The Russian military has not yet adopted this approach. It is instead continuing to feed small collections of reinforcements into an ongoing effort to keep the current campaign alive. We assess that that effort will fail.

Despite realizing that Russia's army was not as good as its propaganda told the world, I find it difficult to believe that Russia is locked into its disastrous initial course. I'd expect Russia to support the existing spearheads enough to keep some pressure on Ukraine's military to keep Ukraine's military busy and spread out. And to prevent Russian retreats.

But while doing that--as the ISW report says Russia is not doing--gather supplies and a reserve force to carry out a firepower-heavy offensive with one or two main axes of advance to finally break one section of Ukraine's front and inflict a decisive defeat on Ukraine's army by isolating and cutting off the Donbas front forces. That would allow a large advance at least on part of the front in the east. The win might be ugly. But it would be a win.

Yet I've hoped that as Russia's army on the front struggles, that Russian troops will become overstretched and vulnerable to a counteroffensive. I've hoped Ukraine has a strategic reserve of heavy forces that it can throw into the war for a significant and perhaps decisive blow on one section of the front.

Are my hope and worry based on what either can actually do? I don't know. I assume Western satellites and other reconnaissance have informed us, however. But Western countries may not be talking.

Or I'm wrong, and the Russians are as stubbornly bad as they seem. And the Ukrainians are committing everything they have to hold on, other than garrisons and territorial forces in the west that have to watch the Belarus border on that flank.

The war goes on.

UPDATE: Mariupol did not surrender. A Donbas "separatist" leader fighting for Russia said he expects the city to hold out for more than a week. 

UPDATE: I assumed this was going on: "Army Gen. Paul Nakasone, who heads both Cyber Command and the National Security Agency, said that “in my 35 years” he has never seen a better sharing of accurate, timely and actionable intelligence than what has transpired with Ukraine."

UPDATE: If Russia had spent the last three weeks building up a new force to resume a single offensive rather than feed in more troops to an already inadequately supplied broad offensive, this would not matter: "On day 25 of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the advance of the Russian forces has almost stalled on all fronts." 

UPDATE: Russian naval forces shelled Odessa. Apparently Ukraine has no coastal defense weapons capable of targeting the Russian fleet. 

UPDATE: Russian forces in Kherson have accepted that the people didn't need "liberation": "Russian troops have dispersed a demonstration in the occupied southern city of Kherson by firing on protesters, media reports say."

UPDATE: The volunteer logistics effort. 

UPDATE: Stalemate? "'If we’re not in a stalemate, we are rapidly approaching one,' said the NATO official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military assessments. 'The reality is that neither side has a superiority over the other.'" The front may not move much. So in that sense it could be a stalemate. But if Ukrainian troop morale remains high while NATO supplies Ukraine, Russia may be at a disadvantage in a war of attrition. Iraq ultimately won the war of attrition with Iran in the 1980s despite Iran having three times the people.

UPDATE: Putin may be in a position to insist. But will Belarusian soldiers die for Putin? "The [senior NATO intelligence] official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told The Guardian: "The Belarusian government is preparing the environment to justify a Belarusian offensive against Ukraine and the imminent deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus." "Imminent" nukes as in eventually, not tomorrow. Could a Lukashenko decision to go to war spark a revolt inside Belarus?

UPDATE: The latest ISW update. Basically, other than grinding down Mariupol, the Russians were either passive or unsuccessful in attacks on the rest of the fronts. The "low-quality reserves" being shoved into place just won't restore momentum.

Bombarding cities continues to be a Russian favorite, at the moment. Logistics continue to be inadequate. ISW speculates that the Russians will need to divert combat units to rear-area security.

ISW judges a Belarusian offensive into Ukraine is unlikely, and if done unlikely to succeed.

UPDATE (Tuesday): Ukraine recaptured some territory around Kiev even as Russia took some territory around the capital.

UPDATE: Russia released a fake video of Ukraine's nuclear ambitions. It only matters if enough Russians believe it. 

UPDATE: 

UPDATE: The U.S. is sending to Ukraine some of the Soviet-built longer-range air defense systems it acquired a long time ago to examine their capabilities. But won't they need to be updated by the Ukrainians to be of any use?

UPDATE: Why Mariupol matters so much. Is control of Mariupol really that critical now? I'm not saying it is irrelevant. But it may not be as demoralizing a loss for Ukrainians given the tough defense that has bled Russia. Ukrainians can be proud of that. And as the Institute for the Study of War has noted, taking the city may not free much Russian combat power for attacks elsewhere at this point. And even Russia can't fully exploit the value of taking the city. If this was a rescue mission, why did Russia have to reduce the city to rubble to do it?

UPDATE: A RUSI analyst says a Russian amphibious operation is unlikely. Russia is likely threatening to keep Ukrainians defending the port city. That sounds right. Russian ground forces aren't near the city and Russia seems to have landed naval infantry to reinforce ground operations.

UPDATE: Biden has warned Russia not to use chemical weapons. Would Russia really use them? Russia may not be any more prepared to operate in a chemical environment than the Ukrainians. And would Russian troop morale survive that frightening prospect? And given the horrific Western European experience with gas, would Europe ever forgive Russia?

UPDATE: Well: "For several reasons, it would be a mistake to read these initial disastrous Russian operations as a definitive predictor of the war’s result. ... [para] But Russia does not seem predisposed to the kinds of changes necessary to seize victory from the jaws of defeat." Continued failure could change their disposition, I imagine.

UPDATE: I assumed this was true: "Russia has paid a disproportionate cost among their VDV (Airborne), GRU (military intelligence) and Spetsnaz (special) forces." But new recruits and irregular mercenaries from the Middle East will make up for those losses? And could Russia--even if it can overcome the growing problem of spring mud--conduct maneuver warfare without those better troops? As I've said, firepower is generally the solution to getting poor quality troops to advance. But can Russian logistics be fixed to do that?

UPDATE: As I wrote yesterday, a stalemated front could be to Ukraine's advantage: "The Ukrainians are fighting for the existence of their country, and recent polling suggests Ukrainian resolve to fight on has only solidified with more Russian attacks against civilians. The Russians, however, are racing against a clock that will run out when they can no longer supply their forces, mobilize fighting formations, or when the domestic population or security apparatus is no longer willing to support the human and material costs of continuing the war."

UPDATE: Russia has increased their sortie rate to 300 per day. But I'll bet Russia is measuring their air power effort by inputs and not effects.

UPDATE: I heard that the Russian shelling of Odessa consisted of 6 shells. Which sounds like a demonstration and quick withdrawal before Ukraine could move in anti-ship weapons. We'll see if Ukraine can manage to ambush another raid like this.

UPDATE: Yeah, it might have been a "leak" more than a "hack": "The figure of 10,000 Russian soldiers killed during the war in Ukraine is a 'reasonable estimate', a Western official has said." Putin is breaking his ground forces by asking the good portions to do too much--and do it stupidly. Strategery.

UPDATE: That's been my impression: "U.S. has indications that Ukraine is now 'able and willing' to take back territory overtaken by the Russian military." I've noted local counter-attacks that Ukraine frequently conducts. And Ukraine took back some key territory west of Kiev. My question has been can Ukraine launch a counter-offensive against a culminated Russian offensive with multiple brigades to seriously break Russian ground units and take back big chunks of territory. Heck, if it comes soon in the south, it might save Mariupol.

UPDATE: The ISW update. This is different. Read it all. If Russia's offensive has culminated, a stalemate is looming. And if a stalemate continues, the West needs to shift from supporting Ukraine's military to supporting Ukraine as a country so it can sustain the war without collapsing. I've started to worry about Ukraine's ability to feed its cities and that is just part of what the ISW is talking about.

And what will China do? Will it subsidize Russia to keep their war effort going in the face of Western resistance? Does China want a client state that drains Chinese resources and alienates the world? How did that work out for Germany in World War II when it had to rescue Italy?

UPDATE: Linking Ukraine to Europe's electricity grid instead of Russia's was a big step to enabling Ukraine to fight on for the long term. The Baltic states should have a sense of urgency in breaking free of Russia's grid.

And while China might find supporting Russia in a long war a bit too much for a frenemy not providing a benefit, what must it be like for Russia? Having started a glorious war for Putin's glory, Putin must now beg the once-backward client of the USSR to keep Putin from dangling from a lamp post because his armed forces weren't as good as Putin thought.

UPDATE: If the West is bolstering Ukraine's economy to sustain a long war, America will need to work hard now to replace Russian energy for Europe.

UPDATE: If the war drags on, Russia may find it has trouble holding its new post-Anschluss satellite state in line: "According to the Jerusalem Post, Belarus faces an organized sabotage campaign aimed at railroad lines carrying Russian troops and supplies into Ukraine." I mentioned cyber-sabotage earlier. This is way more significant as a sign of resistance.

UPDATE: This is interesting: "Much of the Russian movement, including at sea, is happening in 'silos,' leading to some of the Russian struggles, he said." Is there really no overall Russian commander for the invasion? Which means Russia's invasion could get better simply by putting one general in charge.

UPDATE: If this does become a long war, recall my warning: "Is the future of war hypersonic weapons, space warfare, and cyberattacks? Maybe for the first week until the fancy missiles run out and the enemy is thrown back to 20th- or 19th-century capabilities." For both sides, of course.

UPDATE: If the war drags on, Western states supplying Ukraine's military with weapons will need to ramp up weapon production to supply Ukraine and replenish Western stockpiles. 

UPDATE: I warned that Putin could take Russia along as a passenger on his Viking funeral ride. Will Russians rid the Motherland of this glory hound before he makes it even worse? #WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings

UPDATE (Wednesday): Per the DOD:

"We have seen indications that the Ukrainians are going a bit more on the offensive now," he said.

"We have seen them now in places, particularly in the south near Kherson, [where] they have tried to regain territory." 

This could telegraph a bigger attack at some point. I assume mud sets in later in the south.

UPDATE: Yet this still worries me: "The UK Ministry of Defence's latest intelligence update says Russian troops are moving in from the north and south to 'envelop Ukrainian forces in the east of the country'. Troops were advancing from Kharkiv and Mariupol."

UPDATE: Russia and Ukraine have conducted two prisoner exchanges. 

UPDATE: Fingers crossed: "The failures in Ukraine have started to create fissures within Russian leadership, according to Andrei Soldatov, an author and expert on Russia’s military and security services." Putin is wrecking Russia's military, economy, and standing in the world. And he'll punish others for that record. So there is reason for fissures.

UPDATE: I think Pentagon claims that Russia's invasion force has been reduced by 10% grossly underestimates the reduction in Russian military power at the front. I imagine it is based on formulas that quantify weapons and then add them up. So a soldier with a rifle is weighted much lower than a tank or artillery piece. Losing lots of infantry is trivial with that method. But the whole is more than just the sum of its parts. Over-reliance on quantitative measures is a problem.

UPDATE: What's up with that? "Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu has not appeared in public since March 11, Russian media has reported."

UPDATE: Russia has even effed up their communications. As a former Signal Corps soldier, that's just personally offensive. Tip to Instapundit.

UPDATE: It would be interesting if Belarusian units that join Putin's war on Ukraine simply turn around and defect once inside Ukraine. And even if the unit leaders stay loyal, I have to believe Ukrainian propaganda might get a lot of troops to defect or desert. Is Lukashenko sure he wants to let his army get into a position to escape?

UPDATE: That's interesting: "'There is a realistic possibility that Ukrainian forces are now able to encircle Russian units in Bucha and Irpin,' assesses the [British] MoD." Because of Russian supply and morale problems.

UPDATE: The latest ISW update and map. Russians are largely going over to defense while trying to push forward in Mariupol; while Ukrainians are beginning to conduct more local counter-attacks. 

UPDATE (Thursday): The Ukrainians claim to have sunk a Russian amphibious warfare ship in the Sea of Azov port, Berdyansk.

UPDATE: NATO estimates that 7,000 to 15,000 Russian soldiers have died in a month of war. So you should add an estimated 21,000 to 45,000 wounded. I'm not sure how many of those would be wounded too seriously to keep fighting. If Russia needs to send in new conscripts and mobilized reservists, civilians could start to get pretty upset.

UPDATE: Ukraine said it located the ship it sunk from a Moscow propaganda video. I would not be surprised if that story conceals the real source of information on the location of the ship.

UPDATE: Has Russia failed to seize control of Ukrainian air space simply because it has no doctrine for it on the assumption that it cannot win such a campaign against NATO--so doesn't have the capacity to even try? That is beyond simply relying on artillery because it assumes it won't be able to use air power for close air support. And it calls into question America's Air Force resistance to providing ground forces with close air support.

UPDATE: Western sanctions on Russia are hurting the economy but won't directly be able to prevent Russia from waging war on Ukraine.

UPDATE: Don't under-estimate Russian counter-insurgency skills. They are brutal and determined. I mentioned that Russia/USSR has managed to pacify Ukraine before, in the last data dump.

UPDATE: We really need to ramp up production of the weapons we are sending to Ukraine. Which I mentioned earlier.

UPDATE:

UPDATE: The latest ISW update. Russia is grinding into Mariupol and pushing slowly on the Donbas front. Ukraine seems to have the initiative around Kiev.

UPDATE (Friday): Good Lord, is Russia really taking huge numbers of Ukrainians to Russia to serve as hostages? Russia says they went voluntarily. Maybe to avoid war. But do they want to remain in Russia?

UPDATE: Good: "The US will work to supply 15 billion cubic metres (bcm) of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to European Union markets this year[.]" Now open our spigots for more production. More on the deal. It's a start and not the solution.

UPDATE: Turkey's Erdogan says "'As is known, there is almost a consensus regarding such issues as NATO, disarmament, collective security and using Russian as official language in the technical infrastructure works during the ongoing process in Belarus,' the Turkish president added. 'However, there is the issue of Crimea and Donbass, which is impossible for Ukraine to consent to.'"

UPDATE: Interesting: "Ukraine's military has been able to re-occupy towns and defensive positions east of Kyiv through counterattacks and and Russian Forces falling back on overextended supply lines, the U.K. Defense Ministry said in a Friday morning update." 

UPDATE: Russian strategery is really on display in Turkey where even Erdogan has to end his bromance with Putin over Putin's invasion of Ukraine. 

UPDATE: Russia allowed a drone gap develop with Ukraine.

UPDATE: Yes, the fog of war still exists despite the flood of "information" coming out of the war. Even the good guys--and yes, despite its corruption, Ukraine is still the good guy in this war--spin the truth, hide the truth, and lie to try to win. The Budapest Memorandum and the UN Charter itself establish that Putin is the bad guy.

UPDATE: FFS, what more do the Russian elites need to get rid of Putin? "Russian President Vladimir Putin has accused the West of 'trying to cancel' Russia, as he cited the backlash against British author JK Rowling." Jesus, this is more embarrassing for Russia than Spinal Tap taking lower billing than a puppet show. Putin is a real morale builder for Russia.

UPDATE: Scaling back the invasion objectives? "The chief of the Russian army says Russia will now focus its main war effort on the 'complete liberation' of the eastern Ukrainian Donbas region."

UPDATE: The Polish president's plane had to make an emergency landing on a trip to meet President Biden. What if the plane had crashed? What if the assumption was that Russia shot it down? Russia--via Medvedev--has already verbally slammed Poland for helping Ukraine. This war is dangerous if it goes on. Putin thought a quick and glorious war would increase Russian security. A bloody war that drags on is a threat to Russian security. If Putin had the sense of a mossy rock, he'd stop his war on Ukraine.

UPDATE: Ukraine says the Snake Island sailors were returned in a prisoner swap with Russia. Good!

UPDATE: The first stage of effing up royally has been successfully achieved. So Russia can move to the second stage of actually achieving the war objective: "Russia says the 'first stage' of what it calls its 'special military operation' has been mostly accomplished and that it will now concentrate on 'the liberation of the Donbas'." 

Good luck with this: "As many as 10 new battalion tactical groups are being generated and put into Russia’s operations, especially in the Donbas." Whether new from brigades at their bases or reconstructed from the shattered remnants of those that fought in Ukraine, they won't be as good. 

Still, this worries me, too: "Western officials have been concerned for some time that Russia will attempt to encircle and envelop Ukraine’s best fighting units, which are stationed along the line of contact." I may mock the Russians for their first month of war. But Russia could still win. Or at least score a win on the battlefield. We'll see who successfully strikes first.

UPDATE: Ukrainian troops have counter-attacked successfully around Kiev. And I see mention of a Ukrainian mechanized brigade. I've long said I don't hear of Ukraine's heavy forces and wondered where they are. Because they'd be useful for attacking. But perhaps the units weren't committed until now. Perhaps the news is just mentioning them now. I don't know which.

UPDATE: The Pentagon says Kherson is now a "contested" city. Not that Russia doesn't still control it. Russia does. But Ukraine apparently has the capacity to change that. Which is an interesting thing to say about a city still controlled by Russia and not apparently under attack by Ukraine. This is where I've hoped a big Ukrainian counter-offensive could take place.

UPDATE: The apparent decision by Russia to attack on a narrow Donbas front is a good sign. It means Russia has decided to match means to objective by lowering the objective. Given the difficulty of matching conventional means to taking Ukraine from the Belarus border to the Black Sea, nukes would have been the only way to match means to the objective.

UPDATE: The latest ISW update. They say that Russia's claim to be focused on the Donbas is a complete lie directed solely at Russians at home who were told the war was about saving the region from Nazis. Russia's lack of advances on the broad front, except at Mariupol, is because Russia can't attack now. Although the Russians have made small attacks at other points on the front that were largely unsuccessful. Ukraine has successfully counter-attacked both west and east of Kiev. Russia continues to shell Kharkiv.

UPDATE (Saturday): Telegraphing or concealing? "An adviser to the Ukrainian ministry of defence, Markian Lubkivskyi, predicted troops could on Saturday take back Kherson, the first major city that the Kremlin's forces seized."

UPDATE: Interesting: "As we reported earlier, the [senior US defence] official - who briefed reporters [in Warsaw] on condition of anonymity - argued that Ukrainian forces could retake Kherson, the southern city captured by Russia in the first days of the war."

UPDATE: Russia has lost an unusually large number of senior officers. I wonder how many lower level officers have been lost. Seriously, Russia could be breaking its ground forces in this war. 

UPDATE: Well, sure, who didn't expect this? "Russia is running out of precision guided munitions and it is more likely to rely on so-called dumb bombs and artillery, a senior Pentagon official said on Thursday."

UPDATE: Putin is calling in his favor: "Georgia's breakaway region of South Ossetia has sent troops to Ukraine to 'help protect Russia', its leader said on Saturday, as Moscow's military campaign in the neighbouring country entered its 31st day." Sucks to be in debt to Moscow.

UPDATE: This is housekeeping. I've added a "Winter War of 2022" tag for these updated posts on the war. This doesn't included all posted material on the war, because of separate single-topic posts or war-related posts in the "Weekend Data Dumps". Or even memes in "And Now For Something Completely Different" posts.

UPDATE: Biden's speech in Poland on Saturday was poorly delivered. The sound system didn't help. Its significance is that it was made. A call to resist Putin's invasion of Ukraine was great. But I think it was a horrible mistake to say Putin cannot remain in power. 

One, Biden doesn't mean to make good on his threat of regime change any more than Obama meant it when he said Assad had to go. And two, Putin might believe it and decide that he must pursue total victory or death. I'm hoping Biden didn't make a costly mistake.

UPDATE: Clean up in aisle 7:

Joe Biden's speech in Poland sparked chaos this evening after the US president appeared to call for regime change in Russia. ...

But just minutes later, the White House issued a statement denying that he had been calling for the Russian President to be removed from the Kremlin.

I guess that line wasn't on the TelePrompter.

UPDATE: The latest ISW update. Notwithstanding Russian claims to be making the Donbas their main effort, lack of Russian movement on the rest of the front is from inability and not strategy. Russia is carrying out ground attacks in the Donbas region. The Russians will likely split the Ukrainian defenders of Mariupol within days. Ukraine continues to carry out effective local counter-attacks. Russia is finding it must garrison Kherson to avoid losing it--to local armed civilians? It is unclear. The Russians appear to be struggling to replace losses.

UPDATE (Sunday): A new iron curtain? "Russia is trying to split Ukraine in two to create a Moscow-controlled region after failing to take over the whole country, the head of Ukraine's military intelligence has said." Russia may have given up on conquest of all of Ukraine, but it has apparently not decided to withdraw. Ukraine will start guerilla warfare in occupied territory. We'll see if Ukraine can make that lesser goal unachievable. Depends, in part, on whether the West helps Ukraine.

UPDATE: I heard that Russian casualties include a lot of non-ethnic Russians. Is that true? If so, Russia can fight longer before casualties become a political problem for Putin.

UPDATE:

UPDATE: The latest ISW update: Russia continues to attack Mariupol, and in the Donbas where non-Russian units (Chechens, local pro-Russian Ukrainian, and mercenaries) can take some of the losses. Russia is trying to rebuild units to attack Kiev and is pushing logistics units in to solve that problem. Ukrainian partisans are active in the Kherson region, fighting Russian National Guard (Putin's "personally loyal" army) units that were sent to secure the rear areas. Ukrainian local counter-attacks take place but don't seem to change much the last day.

NOTE: This post is closed for updates. War coverage continues here.

Weekend Data Dump

I continue war updates in this post.

Germany will buy up to 35 F-35s to replace their old Tornado aircraft. I believe this is for the purpose of continuing the German air force mission of carrying out its nuclear mission, using American nuclear bombs.

Remember that Russia has a lot more tactical nuclear weapons than America because America could replace the nukes with precision conventional weapons for the missions the nukes once were needed for.

Again, people should be careful because this path led to internment camps for Japanese-Americans: "Think twice before you punish a ‘Russian’ over Putin’s horrible war[.]" Via Instapundit. Not that I expect Biden to go full FDR on Russian-Americans. But it can get ugly for people before that step. Cancel culture is already up and running with leftist approval. Who knows where it will turn? I will post my prophetic meme again:

Starlink goes to war. Musk challenged Putin to a duel. Remember that if Russia goes after Starlink, Musk may go after Russia's satellites. All those Starlink satellites are potential anti-satellite weapons.

Democracy in Russia dies in Western-approved darkness. Nothing could get in the way of Obama's "reset" with Russia. Not that NPR even mentioned that motive. Via Instapundit.

Will Western sanctions on Russia lead China to rethink its aggressive policies lest it suffer the same thing? Or will China conclude that the West wouldn't dare do to rising China what it is doing to the declining Russian peasants?

Oh? "How did we end up here? We all thought Putin's modernized Russian army was ten feet tall and led by a General who, in military thinking circles, is a veritable rock star. What gives?" Who's this "we", Kemosabe?

Bernie Sanders was as much of a reaction to the real divisions in America as Donald Trump was.

Cold Response: "Several thousand U.S. Marines and sailors are among the roughly 30,000 troops from 27 NATO and partner countries taking part in Norway’s largest military exercise since the end of the Cold War." In my view, this is a staging area for the Baltic littorals.

It is technically illegal for Americans to fight against a country not at war with America. But the 1794 law is almost never used.

Did Russia think it had a "blank check" from China? "On Feb. 4, weeks before the Russian invasion began, Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that their nations’ ties had 'no limits,' and that Russia is its 'most important strategic partner.'" Limits seem to exist, after all. Tip to Instapundit.

Brady can't get out of the NFL and Kaepernick can't get back in. Maybe 2022 will be okay, after all.

Please don't. Our allies are frightened enough of Russia right now: "Senior White House officials are discussing the possibility of Joe Biden travelling to Europe in the coming weeks to discuss the war in Ukraine with Allies[.]" I'm not trying to be partisan. FFS, Democrats were afraid to let Biden appear before American voters during the election. Keep him in the basement for this war.

In the short run this lockdown fever in China even against Omicron hurts America and the world, in addition to harming China. But in the long run, it helps decoupling from China's economy. Which results in America and the world not losing while China continues to lose. We assumed the Xi Jinping Flu would harm America more than China. Are we correct in the long run? And don't ask me to define "short" or "long" run.

The rest of America finds your terms acceptable.

If Putin goes through with the threat of expropriating leased aircraft in Russia, Russia will have essentially extended the Western embargo indefinitely as no company will want to accept that risk even after the war ends. Tip to Instapundit.

Actual resistance to actual tyranny. May God help her.

From the "What the Fuck Did You Expect to Happen When You Backed the Taliban" files: "The security situation inside Pakistan is getting worse and Pakistan blames this on the growing chaos in Afghanistan plus foreign (Indian) support for some terror groups in Pakistan."

Iran digs deeper. Doesn't that just mean the Iranians will never retrieve the bodies? 

Ukraine is as corrupt as Russia. I've worried about how that would affect Ukraine's ability to resist Russia. One thing I should have factored in is this obvious (now that I read it) difference: "The fundamental difference between Ukraine and Russia today is that Ukrainians have become citizens of their own country, while Russians remain subjects of their ruler." 

The Pacific Air Force is eager to gete F-15EX aircraft.

Finally: "The Russian invasion of Ukraine, however, demonstrates that 'hybridity' did not transform the character of war, and kinetic force retains its primacy." Western obsession with it was driving me batty.

I don't trust an EU mission: "Leaders of Poland, Czech Republic and Slovenia are traveling to Kyiv on a European Union mission Tuesday to show support for Ukraine." Never let a crisis go to waste to promote the EU.

Putin's useful green idiots.

I've resisted statins (via Instapundit): "Statins lower cholesterol, but not necessarily heart attack risk, study finds[.]" I refused statins, feeling there was an odd fixation on the numbers rather than my underlying health. Eventually I changed my diet enough and increased exercise to lower my bad cholesterol barely enough to end the advice to take them. I've worried in recent years that doctors treat numbers and not patients.

We should have hung these 9/11 sons of bitches long ago. Justice delayed was justice denied. It's pity the victims of 9/11 couldn't use American lawyers to delay their deaths twenty years--and now to their natural ends.

Nigeria has failed to reach its potential. Can Nigerians decide to do better? Can they?

Upgrading the BMP-1. 

What is causing Saudi Arabia's sudden embrace of China? I'd guess it is a shot across the bow for Democrats' odd unrequited love for mullah-run Iran and its hostility toward the Saudis. Biden is finding that if you keep pushing someone away, eventually they may go away.

China and Russia are expanding their influence in Africa. "'A few troops and a few bucks can go a long way' in Africa, [the AFRICOM commander] added." AFRICOM is an economy-of-force theater. But some forces are still needed. And I think a modularized auxiliary cruiser, what I dubbed The AFRICOM Queen, could be a force multiplier.

Is Xi Jinping "in trouble" over foreign policy decisions that have spurred more foreign resistance and opposition to China's rise, once seen as inevitable? And what does that mean when Xi has gathered so much power in his hands? I worry "we" are in trouble if Xi's insular bubble is as strong as his control of China appears to be. Please adjust your pucker factor accordingly.

Did Putin's invasion of Ukraine throw off Xi's plans to invade Taiwan in the fall for a victory to cement his power? I have no idea. But a smaller victory at Pratas Island might do the trick. And avoid biting off more than the PLA can chew, as Putin seems to have done.

As I assumed, a German buy of F-35s is to continue Germany's nuclear deterrent mission in NATO. Which suddenly seems wise.

If Russian efforts to get an Iran loophole to evade sanctions derails a new Iran nuclear deal that could be worse than the original, I'll offer grudging but sincere thanks to the Russians.

So what's up in China? "Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong had their worst day since the global financial crisis, as concerns over Beijing’s close relationship with Russia and renewed regulatory risks sparked panic selling." We may know by the time this post publishes.

Not that the guns do anything, but it certainly simplifies the additions: "There’s enough space and weight margin aboard the Zumwalt-class destroyers to install two tubes for hypersonic missiles without removing the ship’s 155mm gun mounts[.]" The class is a test-bed with secondary combat capabilities. [Never mind. The guns have to go.]

I'm not going to lie. I thought the threat of sanctions against a large country like Russia were overblown: "The economic cost of Russia's assault on Ukraine was further exposed on Wednesday as the sanctions-hit country teetered on the brink of its first default on international debt since the Bolshevik revolution."

I will never get woke language rules. You can't call somebody "handicapped" because it supposedly defines them by their disability. But you can totally call women "bleeders". Because woke reasons. 

If Democrats have a raging hate-on for Putin's Russia now, wait until they find out what Xi's China does!

Ukraine has turned to the west in one basic function because of the war--connecting to Europe's electric grid instead of Russia and Belarus.

Let them eat woke.

Good question: "Forcing loyalty oaths out of people is the sort of thing Putin does. If I don’t think it’s good when Putin does it, why would I think it’s good when it’s done to oppose him? Why are you people behaving like the guy you want to stop?" The simple answer is because they like power as much as the guy they want to stop. Related news: "Vladimir Putin issued a warning to Russians he described as traitors and said the West wanted to try to use them as a 'fifth column' to destroy the country." Remember, that's Putin. Not any random MSNBC host.

It was a mistake for Biden to call Putin a war criminal. If Russia's invasion of Ukraine is to end with diplomacy rather than a battlefield victory by one or the other, the world will have to deal with Putin. Let others call Putin a war criminal. Biden did not have to. Putin may conclude Biden has decided that the war must end with Putin hanged or imprisoned. Russia has nuclear weapons, BTW. [Later: Someone with similar thoughts.] [And later: Biden's statement does not constitute American policy, per his press secretary.]

If there are people in Russia who want to overthrow Putin, there is a basis in law for doing so: "Russia's parliament earlier this month passed a law making public actions aimed at 'discrediting' Russia's army illegal and banning the spread of fake news." Putin has discredited the army by throwing it into combat with a parade ground strategy. Just saying.

I think we can all agree that when a wealthy and privileged man is released from jail without having to pay bail even after being convicted of organizing a racist and homophobic attack, that America surely is an institutionally racist and hetero-fascist state. Deny it, you hater.

When I speak of Western countries siding with Ukraine against Russia, I of course include Japan. Say, is Russia regretting not giving back those islands the USSR captured from Japan in 1945?

We really need to smooth out the glitches in the F-35 program. It really is the only game in town. And seems to work really well--when it is working. Really.

That's the one I got and I haven't been sick: "Roughly 17 million Americans received the Johnson & Johnson Covid vaccine, only to be told later that it was the least protective of the options available in the United States. But new data suggest that the vaccine is now preventing infections, hospitalizations and deaths at least as well as the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines." And to the extent allowed by law, I've been out and about without a mask for a year now. Your mileage may vary. Tip to Instapundit.

Oh? "Vladimir Putin, in a speech to Cabinet members and regional leaders, warned against attempts by the West to use Russians who oppose his rule to bring about the 'destruction of Russia'." Please. Putin is doing fine all by himself.

Could the defeat of Russia start in Belarus?

Is it just me or does Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov look like a total douchebag? The man has a water bed, I'm sure.

A good reminder that Putin will be stopped by Westerners who join the military, build the weapons, and produce the energy--and not TikTok influencers. Tip to Instapundit. My old advice holds.

Russia's geography sucks for them. But they clearly should have chosen an easier target.

The American intelligence bureaucracy continues to get in the way of commercial satellite imagery that grows in quantity and quality.

The updated Stinger still stings.

Well, naturally: "NATO military planners have begun weighing options for beefing up the defensive capabilities of vulnerable alliance members following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Wednesday."

Perhaps: "Unfortunately for the Russians, they face the worst of circumstances for an occupying power. Historical cases of occupation and counterinsurgency suggest an impending disaster. There is almost no chance that Russia will successfully occupy Ukraine." Russia controlled Ukraine for centuries, including reoccupying it after losing it during World War I and World War II. So I can't say there is "almost no chance" of winning. It will hinge on whether NATO supports the resistance.

Journalism delayed is journalism denied. Two years ago that would have been journalism. Now? Just ef our garbage media hive mind.

And it gets worse. Not only does a no-fly zone over Ukraine require NATO planes to shoot down Russian planes--some deep inside Russia or Belarus--but it also requires NATO planes or missiles to attack Russian air defense systems that might threaten our planes. Tip to Instapundit.

There are 100,000 American troops in Europe. That hasn't been the case in a long time. But I assume a sizable fraction is afloat on Navy ships in the region. Which makes it less impressive.

So? "A Chinese aircraft carrier sailed through the sensitive Taiwan Strait on Friday, Taiwan's Defence Ministry said, just hours before the Chinese and U.S. presidents were due to talk." China is confused. Unlike China, America doesn't claim the Taiwan Strait as its territorial water. So China can have a ball sailing in international waters.

The Philippines remains in China's sights. 

Would Putin destroy himself if he orders the use of nukes to save himself? "As was demonstrated during the 1980s, there are Russians in that bureaucracy that will not automatically carry out orders to use nukes. Russians at all levels are talking about this, most of them openly. Those closer to Putin must be discreet to survive. They want to survive and most Russians agree with that and Putin has become one of the obstacles to Russian security rather than a trusted guardian of that security."

If memory serves me, before Reagan was elected there was talk about dethroning the dollar as the universally accepted currency for oil sales by replacing it with a "basket" of multiple currencies, including the dollar. Here we go again. 

I'm just not worried about India buying Russian oil. Indeed, it can help. Let's not be stupid about this.

Israel can't believe Biden might remove Iran's terrorist Revolutionary Guards from the terrorism list. I can.

It is darkly humorous that the Russians invaded another country while threatening nuclear weapons. And at the same time say others are reacting to them in a Russophobic manner. I'd say that Russia under Putin has earned some fear. And loathing.

Okay, this is clever:

China apparently has a new coastal defense sub designed for export. Taiwan, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia would love some, I bet.

Maybe: "Stalled Russian forces across a number of fronts in Ukraine “should give pause” to Chinese military planners looking across more than 100 miles of water at Taiwan as an amphibious invasion target, Gen. David Berger, Marine Corps commandant, said Wednesday." But China can win if it gets ashore and can get a ceasefire. I explored this in Military Review.

I doubt Ukraine would still be fighting the conventional phase of the war, at least in the east, if Ukraine wasn't getting shipments of Western arms and ammunition. The tangible sign of support is a morale booster in addition to the material help. Imagine what could have been different in Afghanistan if our local allies had felt supported rather than abandoned?

These cosmonauts may want to hitch a ride back to Earth on a Elon Musk spaceship. [The men in question deny a political statement. But who knows what the story will be when they return to Earth?]

No! Way! "The U.S. is gathering over-the-horizon intelligence on terrorist activities in Afghanistan but hasn’t made a strike against ISIS-K and al Qaeda, the head of U.S. Central Command told a Senate panel said." It's almost as if that is predictable.

The Marines are practicing shooting at ships with their 155mm guns: "The North Carolina exercise was a step toward proving the M777′s worth in the future small, dispersed littoral fight the Corps is prepping for." I think the littorals these Atlantic Marines should prepare for are in the Baltic Sea to combat Russian operations there.

Lying partisan bastards. But none dare call it "fake news." Tip to Instapundit.

You can hardly blame jihadis for thinking God is on their side. Tip to Instapundit.

Macron has used the war to push for a European Union army: "Emmanuel Macron’s proposal for an EU army risks destabilising Europe, Poland’s deputy prime minister has warned, describing the military assistance of the US and UK as 'more important'." Never waste a crisis for your goals, eh Macron?

Accused jihadis deserve legal counsel. But not Trump, January 6th clients, or Russians. Got it. Morality is simple, really. 

Pursuing a space plane.

The Navy will test using an amphibious carrier as a light carrier with Marine F-35Bs: "Early this coming April, United States Marine Corps F-35Bs from three squadrons will converge aboard the USS Tripoli (LHA-7) to fully test the 'Lightning Carrier' concept." This is not the first test. But it is a full-size test with 20 planes. And this has been coming a long time. Still, this is a secondary capability for a primarily amphibious warfare ship. It makes little sense to deliberately build small carriers.

I'm just going to step out on the branch say that "no", the Winter War of 2022 does not mean the end of operational level offensives. In the long history of warfare, I do not think I am living through the end of this military ability. The faults of the Russian offensive reflect poor Russian choices and capabilities plus Ukrainian resistance and not some universal change in warfare. I'll admit I didn't bother to read it based on my objection. Your mileage may vary.

Speaking Russian is not a proxy indicator for being in favor of Russia controlling you. Putin says a lot of things that aren't true. This is one more.