An online journal of commentary, analysis, and dignified rants on national security issues. Other posts on home life, annoying things, and a vast 'other' are clearly marked.
I live and write in Ann Arbor, Michigan. University of Michigan AB and MA from Eastern Michigan University. One term in the Michigan Army National Guard. Former American history instructor and retired nonpartisan research analyst. I write on Blogger and Substack. Various military and private journals have published my occasional articles on military subjects. See "My Published Works" on the TDR web version or under the mobile version drop-down menu for citations and links.
I have finally salvaged my pre-Blogger TDR archives and added them into Blogger. They are almost totally in the form of one giant post for each month. And the formatting strayed from the originals. Sorry.
But historians everywhere can rejoice that this treasure trove of my thoughts is restored to the world.
And for your own safety, don't click on any old Geocities links or any of their similar variations in my posts. Those sites have been taken over by bad and/or dangerous sites. Hover over links first!
How ruthless are the Chinese Communist Party rulers? And does that mean the world need to monitor disease eruption and spread within China much more intensively, whether China's rulers cooperate or not?
Lots of disease comes out of China. That has long been the norm. Lots of people and lots of animals living very close provide many opportunities for animal viruses to mutate and leap to people.
The Wuhan Flu makes me wonder if the Chinese Communist Party would ever consider using this transmission route as a way to wage biological warfare on the world if the CCP thought its grip on China was slipping?
I don't believe this virus is deliberate, to be clear. I'm just wondering whether a CCP only interested in its control of China would sacrifice a whole lot of their own people to use them as the means to attack rivals and enemies abroad. Human wave attacks in a biological war, so to speak.
Or even to suppress domestic unrest. Hong Kong is certainly quieter during the Wuhan Flu.
If the CCP thought the people were rising up, a nice epidemic would nip that in the bud. And if it spreads abroad, what enemy could exploit the epidemic within China? The well connected and loyal CCP people could be protected.
Just an accidental "normal" epidemic combined with CCP secrecy means we need to monitor China much more thoroughly than we have up to now. The chance that disease could be weaponized makes it more important, no?
The report’s section on “China (Includes Hong Kong, Macau, and Tibet,” as its title reads, offers an effective “cold list” of trespasses committed by the CCP-led regime in its executive summary: arbitrary or unlawful killings, forced disappearances, torture, arbitrary detention, harsh and life-threatening prison and detention conditions, arbitrary interference with privacy, physical attacks on and criminal prosecution of journalists, lawyers, writers, bloggers, dissidents, petitioners, and others as well as their family members; censorship and site blocking; interference with the rights of peaceful assembly and freedom of association including overly restrictive laws that apply to foreign and domestic NGOs; severe restrictions of religious freedom; substantial restrictions on freedom of travel within the country and overseas; refoulement of asylum seekers to North Korea (where they have a well-founded fear of persecution). The Report notes substantial problems with the independence of the judiciary, totally dominated by the CCP, which controls the appointment of all judges and even sometimes directly dictates courts’ rulings, and the widespread corruption that plagues the country. It also underlines the coercive birth-limitation policy that in some cases included forced sterilization or abortion, trafficking in persons, severe restrictions on labor rights, and child labor.
Is that all?
No, don't forget the concentration camps for minorities:
One key point is the mass detention of members of Muslim minority groups in the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region (which Uyghurs prefer to call East Turkestan) under the false accusations of terrorism, separatism, and extremism. In the detention camps in Xinjiang Turkic people are abused, tortured, and killed: mainly Uighurs, but also ethnic Kazakhs, Kyrgyz, and others. This situation, the Report notes, is paralleled by the repression of Tibetans in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) and other Tibetan areas.
UPDATE: And honestly, anybody could attack the world this way if they smuggle the virus into China and plant it in the wet markets.
Shouldn't the CCP shut down the wet markets as a self-protection method to reduce their role as a weapon that anybody can point at the world--and be blamed for it?
Not as long as Iran has resources for Assad, Hezbollah, Gaza jihadis, the militias in Iraq, factions in Afghanistan, the Houthis, South American outposts, and their nuclear and missile programs.
The architects of the Obama administration's self-described pro-Iran echo chamber have used the coronavirus outbreak to argue that U.S. sanctions are to blame for the virus's aggressive spread across the Islamic Republic—a line the Iranian government is also peddling. ...
"The United States has and continues to offer humanitarian assistance to the Iranian people for their response to the coronavirus outbreak," a State Department official told the Washington Free Beacon. "It is unfortunate for the Iranian people that their government has rejected this offer to date. The media should know better than to believe Chinese and Russian propaganda that misleads the public into believing U.S. sanctions are to blame." ...
"U.S. sanctions are not preventing aid from getting to Iran," a State Department official told the Free Beacon. "The United States maintains broad authorizations that allow for the sale of food, agricultural commodities, medicine, and medical devices by U.S. persons or from the United States to Iran."
We can provide some help to Iran, of course, for humanitarian reasons and self interest. But if money is the problem, Iran can find some all on their own by prioritizing their own health over stirring up trouble abroad.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced Wednesday new sanctions against Iran after suspected Tehran-supported militias fired rockets at U.S. military forces in neighboring Iraq.
The Pentagon said Sunday rocket attacks on Camp Taji base, north of Baghdad, killed two U.S. service members. The facility houses coalition forces who are fighting Islamic State militants.
The United States responded by firing at targets believed to be in control of Kataeb Hezbollah militia members. The militias have continued their attacks since, shooting rockets near Baghdad's Green Zone and another nearby training base where NATO trainers and coalition soldiers live.
What a glorious opportunity to dial down tensions, eh?
Or China and Russia can pour money into Iran if they care that much about the mullah-run regime.
We simply cannot care more about the Iranian people than the mullah rulers--or their allies--do.
And we sure don't owe the "Death to America!" mullah regime a lifeline. If we're dead to them, we owe them nothing.
Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s "fabrications" about the coronavirus are dangerous and put the lives of Iranians and people around the world at greater risk, the U.S. State Department said Monday. The comment came after Khamenei characterized the U.S. offer to help Iran fight coronavirus as strange, describing U.S. leaders as “charlatans and liars."
The Iranians apparently believe the Chinese propaganda that America is responsible for the Wuhan Flu.
Even according to official figures, the coronavirus epidemic has killed over 1,800 people in Iran, prompting unprecedented measures that have included closing holy Shiite shrines.
But could the authorities in the Islamic republic be underplaying the severity of the COVID-19 epidemic and the challenge in fighting it?
But the mullahs would rather gather people to yell "Death to America!"
The Washington Free Beacon’s Adam Kredo reports that the nations of the European Union contributed €1 billion in humanitarian aid to help the Iranian people buy sorely needed medical supplies to fight the Chinese virus which has devastated the country. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced on Monday that the regime has stolen it.
The top general of the National Guard has recommended that the president not federalize control of Guard troops so that they can continue to be available to assist state and local governments with law enforcement duties amid the widespread coronavirus outbreak.
Air Force Gen. Joseph Lengyel said that if the federal government assumes control of the Guard, those troops, like active duty U.S. military members, would be forbidden from engaging in domestic law enforcement by the 1878 Posse Comitatus Act.
The dual nature of the National Guard as the primary reserve combat force for the Army and Air Force and the state-level military force is highlighted here. Anything in the Guard mobilized for war leaves little for internal defense under control of the states.
The Reserves are federal-only forces.
In theory, the often elderly, mostly ill-trained, and fairly uniformly ill-funded state defense forces (which includes territories)--where they exist--can fill in when the Guard is in federal service and sent elsewhere.
The key is blurry. Red Green means states with active forces. Green Red means states with forces on paper. Gray is unknown or non-existent. Although I imagine that for a lot of the interior states, a simple call for armed volunteers would do the trick in the short run. [Sorry for the key flub. Doh!]
U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper has hinted at the possibility that the U.S. will reduce its military presence in Africa, suggesting recently that European partners could “offset” changes to the U.S. posture. Such a shift would be part of a rebalancing effort to compete globally with Russia and China while reducing U.S. resource commitments to the counterterrorism fight.
It is a mistake. In terms of bang for the buck, America’s small military footprint in Africa buys more than just security from terrorism threats, it buys American influence on the fastest-growing continent, and does so cheaply. ...
The U.S. military spends close to $2 billion — only 0.3 percent — of its more than $700 billion budget to sustain its African operations: funding U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) headquarters in Germany, intelligence support, operations on the continent, and security assistance programs for U.S. partners. It supports about 6,000 personnel on the entire continent, including 3,000 based in Djibouti, 800-1,000 in West Africa, and 500 special operations forces in Somalia.
We need to be careful in allocating combat resources to our unified commands. With the small numbers involved, will reductions in AFRICOM in favor of EUCOM or INDOPACOM provide significant reinforcements to the latter two regions?
Or will those transfers simply cripple AFRICOM's ability to defend our interests and prevent big problems from emerging in Africa?
The Republican chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee warned Wednesday that any drawdown of U.S. military forces in West Africa would have “real and lasting negative consequences” after visiting the continent.
“The takeaway from our meetings over the past few days was clear: any reduction in U.S. military presence in West Africa would have real and lasting negative consequences for our African partners,” Sen. James Inhofe (R-Okla.) said in a statement. “At each meeting, they reiterated how helpful the U.S. presence has been to building their own capacities to defeat the growing radical Islamic terrorist threat in West Africa.”
In a crisis or in order to carry out a specific mission, reinforcements could quietly stage through that modularized auxiliary cruiser equipped for a power projection mission.
AFRICOM is already an economy-of-force front. Further reductions risk making it an ineffective front. And it gets worse than just our reduced capabilities, as I warned in a data dump about this urge to withdraw:
The United States is thinking about reducing our small military commitment in West Africa. Be careful. Yes, this is an economy of force front. We have bigger problems elsewhere in Europe and Asia. But AFRICOM is trying to prevent potential big problems from developing. And keeping the French actively killing jihadis there is a good mission to keep. We have a small footprint to do that. Don't risk bigger problems in a shortsighted move to deploy relatively small forces to higher priority fronts.
I mean seriously, are we going to live in Bizarro World where SOUTHCOM's unofficial motto going to be "Thank God for AFRICOM!"?
UPDATE: I'm sure this decision is about freeing up special forces as well as combat brigades for missions in higher priority regions:
As part of this review and in order to better compete with China and Russia in Africa, the Secretary is directing the deployment of elements of the Army's 1st Security Force Assistance Brigade (SFAB) to the continent to conduct train, advise, and assist missions in spotlight African countries. This is the first of many decisions regarding AFRICOM's mission.
Freeing up special forces is the basic mission of an SFAB. The news is old (12 FEB 20) and I've meant to link to it. But it seems appropriate here. We'll see if the SFAB can replace special forces in their training roles. Will enough operators be left to conduct offensive missions against jihadis?
The Department of Health and Human Services experienced suspicious cyberactivity Sunday night related to its coronavirus response, administration sources confirmed to ABC News Monday.
The suspicious activity HHS was not a hack but it may have been a distributed denial of service -- or DDOS -- attack, according to multiple sources.
The DDOS attack was not successful. If this was an attempt to interfere with our response to the Wuhan Flu this was kind of like a biological warfare attack.
In the past I've noted that we can't get so caught up in the mystique of cyber-warfare that we forget that a JDAM dropped on an office building filled with enemy hackers is probably a more straightforward way of dealing with their offensive efforts than equivalent hacking back at them.
Two important military developments recently should give China pause for thought. The first one is the announcement by Prime Minister Scott Morrison of a $1.1 billion upgrade to the Royal Australian Air Force base at Tindal, which is about 300 kilometres south of Darwin, to lengthen the runway so that U.S. B-52 strategic bombers as well as our own KC-30 air-to-air refuelling aircraft can operate from there.
The second development is the announcement by the U.S. State Department that Australia has been cleared, at a cost of about $1.4 billion, to purchase 200 AGM-158C long-range anti-ship missiles (LRASM), which can be fired from our F/A-18 Super Hornets and the F-35s when they are delivered.
Australia is a low-population island democracy far from traditional and new "Western" states. It needs submarines and air power as the primary means of keeping enemies away from the continent. That and a small but good ground force capable of working with allies who can reach them are needed to leverage foreign--especially American--help. That's basically what I noted over ten years ago[.]
And of course, being able to keep China away from Australia, especially to the east, allows American reinforcements to arrive--such as at Tindal--without having to fight our way through Chinese forces.
The Royal Australian Navy (RAN) has further validated its ability to conduct mid-intensity, high-end warfighting operations with the completion of Fleet Certification Period 2020 (FCP20) on 6 March.
The naval drills were conducted over three weeks off the coasts of Victoria and Tasmania, and tested the service’s ability to conduct warfighting operations that are centred around its Canberra-class amphibious assault ships.
Chronically underfunded and under-resourced U.S. Southern Command will finally be getting more ships and other assets on a rotational basis to counter high-seas drug trafficking and the growing influence of Russia and China in Latin America, the head of the command said Wednesday.
There will be an "enhanced presence of ships" and an overall increase in forces in the SOUTHCOM area of responsibility, which covers the Caribbean to Antarctica, Adm. Craig Faller said.
As America pivots to face China and Russia, with CENTCOM and AFRICOM under pressure to lose assets for an era of great power competition, I assumed SOUTHCOM would be in even worse shape, with the only hope being The SOUTHCOM Queen modularized auxiliary cruiser.
Hezbollah understands that the 2006 July war was the last war with Israel that the Shia community was willing to endure and that the Syria war has exhausted them. Therefore, Hezbollah has moved the fight against Israel from the field to speeches and stone statues [erected in honor of Soleimani].
Maybe Israel is happy to have a respite from the threat that costs Israel little to enjoy. And maybe Iran is failing anyway as the article discusses, making it a mistake to get in the way of an enemy's failure.
Or maybe domestic political volatility is preventing Israel from making a unified decision on something as big as a war.
I assumed our special forces would hold the line against jihadi terrorists as our forces supporting Afghan security troops are withdrawn. That is the intent:
The commander of U.S. Central Command confirmed that American special operators would serve as the main security force to combat terrorists and militants across Afghanistan as U.S. troops begin to draw down.
But losing American (and other NATO) forces is a problem:
[Marine Gen. Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr., the commander of CENTCOM] explained that the principle driver to maintaining a smaller counterterrorism posture below 8,600 was a “far lower level” of violence across the country — something the Taliban has failed to deliver on despite their signed commitment with the U.S. to do so. ...
McKenzie explained that U.S. special operators in Afghanistan operate in a “conventional force structure.”
That means they require support from enablers like logistics, air power, intelligence and strike capabilities from both U.S. conventional troops and host nation partner forces.
[There] seems to be stubborn thinking in our government that counter-terrorism is a job separate from counter-insurgency, so we can wage war with special forces and drones against terrorists who target us without paying attention to a wider war.
This is a mistake because counter-terrorism relies on counter-insurgency if we want more than a strategy of drive-by dronings, even though the special forces may kill disproportionately despite their small size compared to total forces involved[.]
I still think that is true. A change in administration doesn't change that reality. Our military clearly understands this. Do their civilian bosses?
Can the Afghan forces with reduced NATO help provide that support to the special forces?
But is the Saudi effort really deradicalizing individual terrorists? I'm
not sure that is the metric. Those fanatics might be better treated with
guns and prison.
I want the deradicalization to stop the pipeline at the
beginning with the young people who are recruited to terrorism. Things could always be worse, can't they? MBS is no prize by Western standards, but by Saudi standards he's a good start.
Nobody should want endless shooting wars. The only way to avoid that is to help the Islamic world win its civil war.
How is it possible for people to fight so hard to control Afghanistan, of all places? Our only interest is a negative one--we don't want jihadi killers to use it as a base to attack the West.
Abdullah Abdullah, the loser in the September presidential election insists he is the legitimate president and is issuing orders to government officials who are caught in the middle of a power struggle between the election winner, the Taliban and the United States.
There is much more on the divisions within Afghanistan, and our friends the Pakistanis.
The end result in Afghanistan, if all goes well, will be a nominal national government that controls the capital region and reigns but does not rule local tribes and which actually helps the locals a bit rather than sucking resources from the locals, who in turn do not make trouble for the central government or allow their areas to be used by jihadis to plan attacks on the West.
Yet we persist in thinking the Westphalian system applies to Afghanistan. And our frenemies the Pakistanis are an obstacle, of course. Let's remember why we went there while we try to leave.
The United States will keep two carriers in the Persian Gulf region in case Iran really acts up. As long as the "region" doesn't mean in the Persian Gulf itself, that's fine.
The Pentagon said Friday it would keep two aircraft carrier task forces in the Gulf region after carrying out strikes in Iraq on five depots for Iran-supplied rockets.
Central Command chief General Kenneth McKenzie said the carrier groups would be staying for a sustained period following a series of attacks on US positions in Iraq by Iranian-backed groups that have ratcheted up tensions with Tehran. ...
"There are no access, basing and overflight issues associated with an aircraft carrier. It's a floating piece of American sovereignty," he said.
The problem is that those carriers are floating pieces of American sovereignty, and setting one ablaze--even if it is just briefly without inflicting a critical hit as long as it is filmed--would be a powerful visual to bolster the mullahs (although one can't rule out that it would backfire if it scared the Hell out of Iranians fearful of provoking a war).
Don't rule out that Iran is baiting our carriers into the Gulf with their proxy attacks on our bases in Iraq in order to strike a big blow against our carriers. Don't think they aren't thinking of that:
I recently mentioned that Iran had built and attacked (while filming it) a mock-up of a Nimitz-class carrier. I guess the Iranians are hauling it out again to beat it with sticks. Or something. Perhaps the Iranians decided that if they are going to lie again about inflicting damage on the American military they want some plausible footage. But as I warned in that post, putting our carriers in the Persian Gulf is insane. On the bright side, perhaps hauling out that replica means the Iranians don't think we will be cooperative enough to provide a real target conveniently close by.
A joint exercise launched March 8 and 9 in the Persian Gulf involving the Cyclone-class Monsoon and [Special Operations AC-130W Stinger II gunship with the Navy’s P-8A Poseidon recon plane] was designed to see how well a surface patrol ship and a long-range spy plane could select targets in the Persian Gulf for a Special Operations Command Central gunship to blast to bits.
The scenario envisioned the U.S. forces providing maritime security, such as during convoy operations, in contested waters.
I'm fine with the Cyclone-class ships and smaller types in there, supported by aircraft and land-based missiles (and better employed). Just keep the big ships (and the less robust LCS) out.
According to the left, the darkness of ethnic hatred and mass expulsions is always about to descend on America, but always seems to fall elsewhere.
It's always good to know what the scum of the Earth think, in my opinion. The professor should move to Burma where his attitudes would be better appreciated by those in power (see previous data dump story). Tip to Instapundit.
The Italians discover that the European Union isn't about helping member states: "EU countries have so far refused Italy's plea for help fighting coronavirus, as national capitals worry that they may need to stockpile face masks and other medical gear to help their own citizens, officials and diplomats said." It's all about strengthening the proto-imperial body until they can strip away the prefix. My guess is that the EU apparatchiki will use this Wuhan Flu crisis to gain some new powers. My hope is that the nation-states that are a part of it will head for the exits like Britain did before it is too late. The EU should be a free trade region and nothing more.
Why aren't these dangerous college crybullies already on double secret probation waiting to be expelled? If those dimwits don't want a college education, I don't know why they should be free to disrupt the students who do want an education. Hell, put it is their "permanent record" to follow them to whatever school they apply to. Admissions staff should know who wants to get their system. Tip to Instapundit.
Reasons for optimism about the Wuhan Flu (even as we should treat it seriously and prepare). Panic never helps solve a crisis. But prepare for the coverage that will make panic seem rational. The media will work overtime on this epidemic because Orange Man Bad, of course. Whether the problem is better or worse than the last epidemic. And regardless of whether our response is better or worse than the last epidemic. Just work the problem, as I say. This crisis will one day be in the rear view mirror. Hopefully sooner than we think. And recall that forty years ago HIV would kill us all and yet here we are now (tip to Instapundit): wow!
I wasn't misled by news of Biden supposedly "endorsing" Trump in his confusion. In part it seemed like he was merely explaining that he, Biden, couldn't be "reelected" because only Trump can be "reelected." This was in response to Biden's mis-statement of seeking reelection. I still think Biden is too addled to be president, but this wasn't evidence of that, I figured.
We lost two troops to enemy action in Iraq while accompanying Iraqi forces going after ISIL jihadis. We say we know who did it. So we should do less threatening and more killing. And as it turns out, that statement telegraphed our attack (which one early report I saw said we led, so it may have included the British) against weapons depots and command and control. I hate that we say it was "proportional" which I think is a stupid doctrine as commonly used rather than as the laws of war require. Or maybe we really do mean that it was proportional to achieving the objective rather than being proportional to the enemy attack that prompted our response. I hope our military means that actual definition rather than the leftist definition that is only intended to hobble our response to enemy attacks. I may just be overly sensitive on this issue.
Russia's high-profile advanced weapons are all smoke and mirrors. I believe I've noted that on many occasions. The Soviet Union was a Third World country with nukes and advanced weapons. Russia is a bit better than a Third World country with some nukes that work and prototypes of advanced weapons. Being lying bastards is one point of continuity between the two, of course.
I'm not seeing many signs of panic about the Wuhan Flu. My local store had no hand sanitizer or Ramen noodles but other than that there was plenty of stuff on Thursday and Friday. Although I admit I did not check the toilet paper shelves. And given the disconnect we've seen between the tiny Twitteratti segment of the population and actual voters, do we just have a Twitter panic? I mean, so far this doesn't rise to the levels of Black Friday shopping frenzies.
I watch The Walking Dead, but it is in part habit by now. I can't watch the spinoffs which are awful. And The Talking Dead no longer has any appeal. But even the original TWD threatens to lose me whenever they have a battle scene. One, I don't think that America would be out of usable guns and ammo in their time frame. And two, have they not independently discovered ditch and rampart systems--with a nice abatis if they have time--to fight even hordes of zombies? The Romans could throw those up in a day. Instead of the wasted effort on an electric fence that failed in less than a minute, why can't these classic defenses be built in the path of a horde--they are easy to direct, it seems--to inflict attrition from successive positions that are used and abandoned to fall back to the next one? Or just put ditches and obstacles in front of their settlement walls with fighting positions, using fire and crossbows to kill the zombies at a distance? Don't let the zombies approach the wall to shove it down with their weight. Nearly all of the people in the settlements should be able to man wall positions like that or just shuttle flammables and bolts to the wall defenders. The small trained militia with shields and spears (and use your shield walls as intended for God's sake! Hold the line and thrust!) should be for countering any penetrations of the walls or to sortie out and kill off particularly dangerous clumps or to finish off the remnant of the attackers. These battles are supposed to be the high point of the seasons but they just annoy me. Is it just me? Am I wrong to be that picky?
I don't understand why people get all bent out of shape when Service A or Product X goes up in price by more than the rate of inflation. The rate of inflation is not the measure of what is proper or improper. Inflation rates are in theory (in practice it is defined by only certain stuff) the average price change for all things and services. So some go up more than the inflation rate and others go up my less--and some actually decline in price. Mind you, if the something is what you like, you are free to be upset. And of course, inflation doesn't consider changes in the quality of products. It's just one measuring stick so stop treating it like some marker of gouging.
I don't know if Trump can win Michigan in 2020. Michigan has been blue between 1988 and 2016, and I don't know if the factors that led to the narrow 2016 win can be repeated this year. But I had no clue Michigan would go red in 2016, so what do I know? Either way, poli sci PhD students will have plenty of material to work with for years to come, eh?
"For Trump, Coronavirus Proves to Be an Enemy He Can't Tweet Away" says the headline. For too many in the media and the loyal opposition, the enemy of their enemy is their friend. And you don't have to think Trump has made no errors in actions or words to see that. Honestly, I'm hard pressed to judge whether Trump is responding correctly or not. His Oval Office speech wasn't that good, but I fear for our country if we panic or fail to panic based on a speech. Not once have I ever needed the comfort of a presidential speech by any president. Failure in policy is not obvious to me, but this is out of my lane. Would I recognize it if I saw it? But I do know that I can't trust the judgment of (via Instapundit) the Democrats and their media allies who shift their story to suit their needs. The story of the boy who cried Russia "wolf" may apply. Or the critics are again full of it--again. I guess we'll see.
Yeah, things seem fine until all of a sudden they aren't. Despite my confidence that we will get through the Wuhan Flu the first reports of confirmed coronavirus in Michigan reminds me of the beginnings of a disaster movie when the first hints of the coming disaster pop up while we are too busy with our lives to pay much attention.
Wow. Just twelve years ago Democrats said he was a homophobic, misogynistic, dog-abusing, one percenter who had a strange Cold War obsession with the Russians:
Sure they do, yes we can, and don't forget to count allies in the mix--which we have and China doesn't (not counting North Korea).
Yes, despite my long history of despising the man, Trump's policies are something I like about his administration. Conservatives should like the policies, no? And so yeah, despite not voting for Trump in 2016, I prefer him to enduring 8 years of a man with crisp pants creases and policies I despised. Also, the insane Democratic turn-it-to-11 relentless attacks on Trump and especially his supporters--I grew up in Deplorableville--makes me very anti-anti-Trump. I'm funny that way.
I just don't see Russia coming out of the oil price war with Saudi Arabia in better shape. And Iran must be panicked. And while this could shut down frackers in the short run, in the short run lower energy prices are a considerable stimulus to the world psychologically reeling under the Wuhan Flu, isn't it?
After Bernie's come-from-behind-the-polls win over Hillary Clinton in 2016, Michigan has seemed like a Bernie Sanders bastion--notwithstanding the narrow Trump win over Hillary in the general election. This year Biden trounced Bernie here in Michigan without much effort. Which makes 2016 look like an anti-Hillary vote rather than a pro-Bernie vote. Which makes me ask, is 2020 a vote against Bernie rather than a pro-Biden vote? And what does that mean for November? As an aside, the commercials before our election made it seem like Obama was running against Obama--both Bernie and Biden ran clips of Obama speaking!
Why would Bernie drop out of the race when one super embarrassing public performance by Biden soon enough could create a second reversal of momentum in favor of whoever is left in the primary race?
I hear that there is a divide politically between Republicans and Democrats over the Wuhan Flu. Namely that Republicans minimize the danger while Democrats inflate the danger. I suspect the difference is related to the near-hysteria of the media in describing the Wuhan Flu in contrast to their soothing words over past epidemics that didn't involve a Republican president. I worry. I'm not panicking. But I'm prepared. And I'm hoping for the best. And I recognize the political motives for the way the Wuhan Flu is covered. One thing that helps is that I watch few opinion shows these days. When you avoid most of the asininity over politics the bonus avoidance of epidemic asininity is nice.
I continue to hang on to what the stock market rebound will look like when that happens. 😣
There is so little actual racism in America that the demand continues to exceed supply. While the woman is a disgusting person for perpetrating the hoax, I draw comfort from the fact that haters like her find they must fabricate the hate they claim is everywhere.
Oh good grief. The federal government has responsibility for the borders. States and local governments can take the lead on community spread of the Wuhan Flu. Don Lemon makes Joe Biden sound like a very stable genius.
Does the Wuhan Flu mean we don't need to worry about climate change destroying us all? Or is that stupid to worry about given that the end of Net Neutrality already killed us?
Mines are an underappreciated weapon. Russia's new mine countermeasures vessels are the right call rather than super carriers--which to be fair are just periodic announcements with no chance of being built (darn it). And more to the point, Iran could try to mine the Strait of Hormuz and shut off oil exports, but they'd be hard pressed to overcome the opposition to that.
Is the Democratic contest over already? Is Biden assured of victory because the parallels to the 2016 Republican contest are invalid? To be fair, I suspect Bernie doesn't really want to win because it would taint his "movement" with the horrible need to compromise and govern. Which is actually similar to Trump because I honestly don't think he intended to win either the primary contest or the election, which came as a complete surprise to him (and me). Tip to Instapundit.
We need some social distancing from the cloth grocery bag-using plague carriers. For the children ... bring back safe hygienic plastic grocery bags! Tip to Instapundit.
Well, maybe. But how do humans who do need to rest wage such a relentless war? And how do you sustain such a relentless war with logistics and replacement of losses, both human and machine? How do you keep up the pace when the network goes down even for a little bit from failure or enemy action? I don't know, but this idea that there will be "not timeout" in a future war just seems like a high-tech explanation for the latest iteration of why future war will be short and decisive.
I'm not going to say (tip to Instapundit) that Rick Wilson and his evil hope represents many on the left. I don't believe many on either side are that evil and hate-filled. But he should be careful what he wishes for considering that densely populated blue cities--especially with policies like this (Seriously, are NYC schools open around the clock, because health workers aren't just needed during daytime school hours. And aren't health workers exposed even more if their children get it? I'm just a history major, to be sure. So maybe I'm missing something that the NYC brain trust has thought of. But that policy is the opposite of "social distancing," isn't it?)--will be more at risk for the Wuhan Flu epidemic than less densely populated red areas. There's a Chinese curse (purportedly/ maybe?) on that--if it isn't racist to say that.
I assumed that charges that Trump disbanded a National Security Council pandemic unit were BS. And so it proves to be: "A senior administration official said Friday that the NSC's global health security directorate was absorbed into another division where similar responsibilities still exist, but under different titles. The work of coordinating policy and making sure that decisions made by Trump's coronavirus task force are implemented is still the job of the NSC." The pandemic people are all there. You have to get to paragraph 17 to find that out after the misleading headline. But because the people don't have their own letterhead they can't do their job? Do you wonder why I don't trust the news media? They have a lot of work to do just to get to a "trust but verify" level of respect.
No. The Mali army can't grow fast enough to defeat the Islamist terrorists in the north. Next question. And the eagerness of men to enlist in that extremely corrupt country's army should tell you that--they want to loot the money and equipment (to sell) that is intended to grow the army. And even if the recruits are motivated to fight, the civilians and officers above them will loot so much that nothing much will reach the soldiers.
This criticism on "strategy" grounds did not age well. Our killing of Soleimani did not unify Iranians around their mullah rulers. I count it a strategic success that when enemies practice "gray zone" deniable aggression that we might not go along with the fiction that the enemy is not committing aggression. And then enemies blow up. The man is getting his PhD in Echelon above Reality, I guess.
Let's see if the British still have that famous stiff upper lip. Tip to Instapundit.
We're back to common sense on the F-15EX: "The Air Force’s planned purchase of the F-15EX to replace aging fighters is needed to maintain the homeland defense mission as aging F-15Cs continue to see reliability issues, the head of U.S. Northern Command told lawmakers." I was confused in an earlier data dump when I noted that the argument was that the F-15EX could be a missile truck for F-35s. Continental air defense to release F-35s for air combat against higher threats seemed like the mission that made the most sense to me. And I was confused that it wasn't mentioned in the earlier story that I had I noted.
If that man really needs his 8-month supply of food and a winter's worth of fuel I hope he has a 9-month supply of ammunition, because advertising his "prepper" stockpile is kind of dumb. This is something you should boast in the media about after the crisis is over, no? Just sayin'.
Man, I don't know what it is but people and countries were just really annoying me this last week. I thought I had several years before I got "cranky."
Now that the number of new people infected with the coronavirus in China is slowing down, the country's Communist Party is ratcheting up threats against the West, with a particularly nasty warning about access to life-saving drugs aimed at the United States.
Chinese official suggests U.S. Army to blame for outbreak[.]
If America did this to China, why didn't the CCP declare war on America rather than being meek little sick wussies and taking it? I mean, China is saying over 3,000 of their people were killed by America. Yet they are just going to hint that we might have done it?
Won't this propaganda just make the Chinese Communist Party look like cowards to Chinese nationalists that the CCP has fed a diet of aggressive nationalism to in order to make up for the decline in Communist purity that the CCP used to rely on for control and support?
Won't the Chinese people see through this and blame the Chinese Coronavirus Party for the entire mess?
Why won't China declare war on America? Because we didn't create the Wuhan Flu and we didn't do this to the Chinese. Being evil, lying bastards is job one over there in Peking.
In truth, Iran cannot afford either to escalate (and risk crippling air strikes) or back down (and experience loss of face and prestige throughout the Islamic and terrorist worlds). Nor can it continue with the status quo of sanctions and falling oil prices (and thus slowly return to a pre-modern economy). The regime will not liberalize, but it will lose its national infrastructure and wealth if it starts killing Americans. Iran certainly cannot create a self-sufficient economy.
In short, never in our long, checkered 40-year shared history with Iran has the U.S. been relatively stronger and Iran abjectly weaker.
Hard for me to say.
I'm just happy they are under sustained pressure rather than courted as friends we haven't made yet.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said the country’s coronavirus outbreak could be part of a biological attack on the Islamic Republic, as he called on the armed forces to bolster the government’s fight against the disease, according to a statement published by the semi-official Fars News agency.
The US Congress on Wednesday gave its final approval to a bid to restrain President Donald Trump from attacking Iran, a sign of lawmakers' alarm after soaring tensions.
Two U.S. service members and a troop from a coalition partner nation were killed in a rocket attack in Iraq, a Defense Department official told Military Times Wednesday.
The official said that there were also about a dozen people were injured in a volley of 18 rockets that hit Iraq’s Camp Taji base.
A British soldier was the coalition partner casualty. And a pro-Iran militia is the likely suspect.
And to be fair, I won't actually say that Iran did this because of our Congress. This is what Iran does. But I can't help but feel that Congress isn't helping keep Iran calm by their symbolic action.
The Shia Crescent, which Iran has been investing in for decades, is finally turning against the Iranian regime and its proxies. From Beirut to Baghdad, all the way to Tehran, Iran is facing its most complicated adversary in years – the Shia protestors. For Iran, the enemy is also within, and it’s one that cannot be contained without a drastic upheaval in Iran’s own strategies and political alliances across the region.
Russian President Vladimir Putin laid out a path Tuesday to staying in power beyond 2024, as lawmakers approved sweeping reforms to the constitution.
In a surprise address to the lower house State Duma, Putin said there could be a presidential "reset" allowing him to run after his current term expires.
"This would be possible... if the constitutional court rules such an amendment would not go against (the constitution)," he said.
I'm going out on a limb to say that the Russian constitutional court won't object.
Russia's parliamentary head told lawmakers on Thursday to rally behind Vladimir Putin against what he said was a foreign campaign to discredit constitutional reforms that could allow the president to stay in power until 2036.
So there you go. Just "reset" term limits. It's so simple it is obvious in retrospect, no? That does make it far less dramatic than some scenarios.
Amid a coronavirus pandemic and looming global economic crisis, Russian President Vladimir Putin has suddenly revealed how he intends to remain in power beyond 2024, when what should be his final term in office ends. In doing so, Putin seems to have bet – not incorrectly – that there is simply no one who can stop him.
Nobody and no document will stop Putin from ruling the country he is wrecking.
When enough people notice how much Putin is effing up royally, maybe Putin can be stopped short of peacefully dying of old age in his bed at night in the Kremlin.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has formally asked the country's constitutional court if it is legal for him to change the constitution, the Kremlin said on Saturday, a move that could allow him to remain in power until 2036.
Again, I'm not seeing any chance of a negative answer to that question.
Russia's Constitutional Court on Monday approved a law on constitutional amendments that could allow Vladimir Putin to remain in power for another 16 years.
The law still must be approved in a national referendum that has been scheduled for April 22. The court's approval came just two days after Putin signed the law.
Oh how will that vote work out? The suspense is killing me.
[The Russian parliament] unanimously approved Putin's constitutional amendment that somehow makes Putin's current two terms null and void. The Constitutional Court approved the measure, and the people will vote Da on it overwhelmingly in a totes free & fair election next month. I feel very confident about predicting the outcome, if not the actual "free & fair" part.
What that means is, Putin will be eligible for re-re-reelection as the incumbent for an office he never held.
I'm assured this makes more sense in the original Russian.
The Army wants a Bradley Fighting Vehicle replacement to be optionally manned. What about partially optionally manned on the way to manned combat/control vehicles and unmanned armed "wingmen" UGVs?
Army modernization leaders faced tough questions Thursday from lawmakers who worry that the decision to restart the Optionally Manned Fighting Vehicle (OMFV) effort has destroyed the trust of defense firms that have already invested millions in the Bradley fighting vehicle replacement.
Army officials announced in late January that the service would restart the high-priority OMFV effort after receiving only one valid bid for the $45 billion program.
The idea was to preserve the infantry when they are just cargo against catastrophic hits on the IFV. With RMS machine guns the IFV could support the moving tanks with mounted firepower. Only when dismounted combat is foreseen would the infantry travel in the IFV.
And then other soldiers could operate the IFV-mounted RMS to support the dismounts.
This manned/unmanned hybrid would not only be a glide path to a fully unmanned IFV but would be a one-vehicle test of a manned vehicle commanding armed UGVs away from the vehicle.
I incorporated the Guinta Cavalry Vehicle (scout version of an IFV) with this concept as well as the Legion main battle tandems for the manned/unmanned teams in this failed entry into an Army future warfare writing contest.
The British national strategy--and my impression is enhanced by Brexit--seems to be like British strategy in the Napoleonic era of supporting allies in Europe from the sea without getting deeply involved in ground combat until the enemy is weakened.
The thinking underpinning British maritime strategy is articulated in the current fifth edition of British maritime doctrine, UK Maritime Power. UK Maritime Power describes maritime power as an ‘inherently broad concept’, encompassing ‘economic, political, military and influence elements – realised through the ability of a state to use the sea’. In military terms, this is defined as ‘the ability to apply maritime military capabilities at and from the sea to influence the behaviour of actors and the course of events’. UK Maritime Power articulates ‘the enduring utility of maritime power’, in the following terms: ‘Maritime forces provide a national global presence through three classical roles – war fighting, maritime security…and Defence Engagement. The unique attributes of the maritime environment allow maritime forces to provide a persistent and versatile military capability, free of the liability of extensive host-nation support’.
The British of course need diplomacy to have allies on a continent to support with a small but proficient military. And the diplomacy will need to be good because the British ability to finance continental allies is no longer possible.
Remember that Britain has long wanted to prevent Europe from being controlled by a hostile power. Which should mean that Britain works actively against the European Union proto-imperial project becoming a full empire. Britain should want the EU to return to an economic free trade area without the political infrastructure.
Or Britain could work alongside America, as Britain long has done, in regions where Britain has national interests. In regard to Europe. America has
long--but not as long as Britain--had the same objective of preventing a single hostile power from taking control of Europe. And given how the EU has treated Britain since it voted for Brexit, can you doubt European hostility toward Britain?
Given Russia’s lack of a developed highway system (see EDM, October 6, 2015) and its increasing difficulties with the use of rivers for transport (Ritmeurasia.org, October 22, 2019), Moscow not only relies more heavily on the country’s long-haul railway network but counts on it to allow Russia to play a key role in trade between China and Europe. However, because of Moscow’s failure to invest in the maintenance and development of that network, Beijing is increasingly skeptical that Russia can be such a land route. Consequently, China is looking to send its goods either by sea or by routes that bypass the Russian Federation entirely. So what might seem to be a domestic problem is rapidly becoming an international one for Moscow.
Chinese national interests will follow trade (the flag follows trade). Russia will have the biggest problem from this natural sequence.
Invaders will need Russia's railroads to supply the logistics of invasion. There's a reason Russia uses a different railroad width than Europe to the west of them. It slows down invaders who have to adjust the rails in the wake of an advance.
Although ideally for Russian defense needs the Trans-Siberian stretch should be in good shape to allow rapid Russian reinforcement (air reinforcement has limits) with only the lines going into China falling apart.
Kratos thinks the XQ-58A, rocket boosters, and launcher rail could all fit inside a shipping container. In the event of a crisis with China, the Air Force could deploy the shipping containers to small islands in the Pacific, either by ship or C-130J Super Hercules transport. A small number of Air Force personnel would also deploy with the containers.
The XQ-58A Valkyrie is one of a new generation of drones with near-fighter jet capabilities. The drone is 30 feet long with a 27 foot wingspan, has a top speed of Mach .95, and can carry up to two 250 pound GBU-39 Small Diameter Bombs.
In case of war, the idea would be to ship them off to islands for a network of strike assets.
The Navy is desperate for numbers. Traditionally the answer to that problem was auxiliary cruisers. With weapons and systems in standard shipping containers mounted on container ships, we have the ability to create lethal modularized auxiliary cruisers.
Heck, with a better market for containerized missiles, maybe the Navy's floating facepalm LCS will benefit from new and cheaper modules and be real contributors to sea control missions.
