In truth, Iran cannot afford either to escalate (and risk crippling air strikes) or back down (and experience loss of face and prestige throughout the Islamic and terrorist worlds). Nor can it continue with the status quo of sanctions and falling oil prices (and thus slowly return to a pre-modern economy). The regime will not liberalize, but it will lose its national infrastructure and wealth if it starts killing Americans. Iran certainly cannot create a self-sufficient economy.
In short, never in our long, checkered 40-year shared history with Iran has the U.S. been relatively stronger and Iran abjectly weaker.
Hard for me to say.
I'm just happy they are under sustained pressure rather than courted as friends we haven't made yet.
But I do worry that rather than just quietly crumble, Iran will roll the dice with a radical response regardless of how likely it is to work. The Iranians might actually believe the Chinese-led propaganda that America is responsible for the Wuhan Flu plague sweeping Iran.
This isn't promising in regard to their state of mind:
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said the country’s coronavirus outbreak could be part of a biological attack on the Islamic Republic, as he called on the armed forces to bolster the government’s fight against the disease, according to a statement published by the semi-official Fars News agency.
And our Congress just might be giving Iran a reason to believe they can get away with rolling the dice by hitting America hard:
The US Congress on Wednesday gave its final approval to a bid to restrain President Donald Trump from attacking Iran, a sign of lawmakers' alarm after soaring tensions.
Thanks Congress!
Two U.S. service members and a troop from a coalition partner nation were killed in a rocket attack in Iraq, a Defense Department official told Military Times Wednesday.
The official said that there were also about a dozen people were injured in a volley of 18 rockets that hit Iraq’s Camp Taji base.
A British soldier was the coalition partner casualty. And a pro-Iran militia is the likely suspect.
And to be fair, I won't actually say that Iran did this because of our Congress. This is what Iran does. But I can't help but feel that Congress isn't helping keep Iran calm by their symbolic action.
This is the time to point out that getting rid of the mullah-run regime that rules Iran would cut the Gordian Knot of a lot of our foreign policy problems.
UPDATE: Are the Arab Shia that Iran wants to control because of common religion getting tired of being dominated by Iran?
The Shia Crescent, which Iran has been investing in for decades, is finally turning against the Iranian regime and its proxies. From Beirut to Baghdad, all the way to Tehran, Iran is facing its most complicated adversary in years – the Shia protestors. For Iran, the enemy is also within, and it’s one that cannot be contained without a drastic upheaval in Iran’s own strategies and political alliances across the region.
Is this tiring of Iran's imperial ambitions going to bring down the mullah regime as multiple pressure points attack the regime? And is Iran's imperial effort a vector for spreading the Wuhan Flu in the Arab world?
Which makes me wonder again about the effects of China's One Belt One Road project. Brace yourselves for epidemic in the New Silk Road.
UPDATE: Are the Shias in the Arab world getting tired of their cannon fodder role for Iran's ambitions?
