Uh oh:
Syria’s official news agency said two of its warplane were shot down by Turkish forces inside northwest Syria, amid a military escalation there that's led to growing direct clashes between Turkish and Syrian forces.
SANA says the jets were targeted over the Idlib region, and that the four pilots ejected with parachutes and landed safely.
Turkey's Defense Ministry said it had shot down two SU-24 aircraft and destroyed air defense systems after one of its aerial drones was downed. Earlier, Syrian military-run media said it had downed a drone inside northwest Syria, and was closing its airspace for any flights or drones across the country's northwestern region. It said any aircraft that penetrates Syrian airspace will be treated as hostile and shot down. ...
Turkish Defense Minsiter Hulusi Akar, speaking from military headquarters near the Syrian border, said Turkey aimed to confront Syrian government forces rather than Russian troops. He called on Moscow to persuade Syrian President Bashar Assad to withdraw to 2018 cease-fire lines on the edges of Idlib.
Turkey claims it has "neutralized" a lot of Syrian troops and weaponry. If true, and depending on what that term means, this puts Russia in a difficult position. Putin thought this would be a cheap intervention against rebels with no external support of note and with America's coalition taking on the tough job of destroying ISIL.
Now Russia finds it might have to defend that victory against a strong regional military power between Russia and Syria.
The Turks can no doubt defeat Syria's exhausted and skeletal zombie military if Turkey can make the effort.
And Russia runs the risk of taking on NATO if it battles Turkey in a general war for Assad.
Then there is the practical problem that Russia would have a problem of fighting Turkey just in Syria given that Turkey blocks Russian sea lines of supply from Crimea to Syria. And Turkey's military could no doubt block logistics efforts that bypass the Turkish straits or that attempt to fly in supplies and personnel. As I noted about a potential Russian-Turkish war in the last update in this post:
Well, it would be an air and naval war, with Turkey blocking air and sea shipments from Russia to Syria. Turkey has the edge. So if there is a war I don't see Russia starting it. Unless you think Russia would use nukes against Turkey to win.
But Russia has a lot of reputation riding on defending allied tyrants. Can Russia afford to refrain from supporting Assad? Or can Putin get Assad to give up trying to retake Idlib to avoid making Russia escalate their involvement on behalf of Assad?
Turkey doesn't want war. Russia doesn't want war. Assad can't fight a war against Turkey without Russia at his side. Will there be a war anyway?
UPDATE: Turkey wants to pocket their pummeling of Assad's troops and spare Russia the need to defend Assad:
Turkey's president said he hopes to broker a cease-fire later this week in Moscow when he meets with his Russian counterpart, after growing alarm over direct clashes between Turkish troops and Russian-backed Syrian forces in northern Syria.
Let's see how much Assad wants all of Idlib back sooner rather than later.
UPDATE: A late update noting that Turkish forces really hammered the fragile Syria ground forces.
