Sunday, March 22, 2020

Weekend Data Dump

Back in black, in Thailand, where the forms of democracy don't provide actual democracy (and rule of law).

Biden didn't implode in last Sunday's debate and Sanders didn't make a serious effort to score a decisive hit on Biden before it is too late to catch up in the delegate race. I will ask again whether Bernie even wants to win the Democratic nomination or whether he is simply trying to build a "movement" he can lead without the burden of actually doing something.

The CDC really should be focused on disease control.

This is funny but it is NOT medical advice:


I think the New York governor overrode the NYC decision to keep schools open.

Pelosi didn't want to waste a Wuhan Flu crisis.

I don't know enough to be in either Wuhan Flu camp but I'm prepared for problems. With my consumption of television opinion very low these days, I lack the certainty of the "downplayers" and "doomsayers." And I'm hoping that in a couple months we will have the luxury of looking back and saying we over-reacted to a "minor" threat. Seriously, I knew someone who said the collapse of the Soviet Union was proof that the Cold War was unnecessary ...

This AP "fact check" on the Sunday night debate last week was extremely pro-Biden.  Just saying I find it hard to believe that Biden didn't also say things that seriously screwed up. I mean come on, Biden touched his face and coughed into his hand during the debate showed he didn't actually follow Wuhan Flu guidelines for avoiding it? That's a fact check?

African states are reacting to the Wuhan Flu threat.

The atrocious, anti-American, and slanderous New York Times 1619 Project: Never mind. The premise of the project is wrong--as it is admitted. All that is left is the anti-Americanism. So don't expect the project to be ended.

Defender-Europe 2020, the exercise to see how America can do sending forces to Europe from the continental United States, is being scaled back in regard to the US troops moving there in reaction to the Wuhan Flu. From my AUSA email updates.

I continue to avoid television news opinion shows to avoid Wuhan Flu hype and panic. Yes, it is serious and I take it seriously. But it doesn't help to dwell on the issue and worry as long as you are working the problem.

Thoughts on the geopolitical implications of the Wuhan Flu. Maybe I'm missing something, but is China really poised to gain advantage over America because of this? But yeah, the European Union proto-empire could take a body blow. And here's an opinion contrary to the China ascendant take.

The British had second thoughts about the price of counting on mass infection to provide "herd immunity."

God may help those who help themselves; but God positively screws over people defiantly stupid.

Is this the last nail in the coffin of the pointless, well-financed, and overly ... ah ... enthusiastic Mueller probe?

Apparently, Iran's proxies in Iraq want to keep shooting rockets at coalition forces.

Germany decided to shut some of its borders to fight the Wuhan Flu. I don't get that "some" part.

People are not as awful in the Wuhan Flu crisis as the people in the media and on social media--as I suspected in the last data dump. Tip to Instapundit.

Your annoying virtue signals (plus some other issues I wasn't worried about until now) are a public health threat. Thanks!

Can the Army convince Congress that the Army learned its lesson from the FCS fiasco and fund the Bradley replacement? Hey, I tried my best to help back in 2002 in Military Review (starting on page 28). And I more recently again urged a more modest past for achieving the "gee-whiz" stuff.

Al Qaeda praised the Taliban "peace" agreement as a great jihadi victory. Of course they'd say that. If people believe it is true it might help make it true. So it is up to us to make sure that it isn't true. I worry we won't have the tools.

Kenya's Somalia problems. Maybe Kenya should ask China to build a Great Wall on the border as part of the Belt and Road project, eh?

Japan is helping Indonesia hold the line against Chinese poaching. This "Cod War" could be a little more kinetic. Perhaps the Japanese upgrades could include net cutters.

I suspect Los Angeles will get more of the Wuhan Flu plus a bonus crime wave.

It seems as if Bernie Sanders supporters are disgusted with the media bias against Bernie in order to support Biden. Welcome to the party bros. I mean, good Lord, Bernie has even gotten the Democratic Party "do what we want or people will DIE!" treatment. While the bias has been open and proud in the age of Trump, this is something that has existed all my adult life as a bias for Democrats and against Republicans. But the Bernie fans will get over it. Just after Biden is formally nominated and most of the Bernie supporters switch to Biden, these Democrats will be perfectly happy the way the media favors their team. Because NAZIS!

The media was most unhappy about Trump calling the coronavirus epidemic the "Chinese Virus." I don't care. As I said in the last data dump, I'm committed to calling the epidemic the "Wuhan Flu." You can certainly call me anti-communist for that, but racist is rather silly given the CCP threats and propaganda to blame America and actions that helped spread the epidemic abroad--on top of the turn-the-dial-to-11 ridiculousness of attacking the totally normal shorthand of referring to viruses based on their point of origin.

I have to relearn the extreme care the Army drilled into me about operating in a contaminated environment of chemical and biological warfare.

Strategypage looks at the Crypto AG intelligence coup during the Cold War. I mentioned this German-American success in a data dump last month.

The earliest mention I can find on the China Wuhan Flu in TDR is in this January 26th data dump mention about a SARS-like virus. I was just curious.

I am worried that the Wuhan Flu is an excuse for Trump to embrace his inner liberalism and go on a bipartisan spending spree with the Democrats, unrelated to combating the epidemic. I'll hold my praise for uniting against a threat until the solution isn't spending gobs of money. Seriously, how else to explain this odd development (via Instapundit)? Remember that the Obama stimulus in 2009 was basically a Democratic wish list of spending on favored constituencies pulled together under the title of "stimulus." I've long said that the Democrats made a mistake in turning the Resistance dial to 11 and could have appealed to Trump's liberal background to get Democratic spending over core conservative Republican opposition.  And it didn't work in 2009. Will we do better now? Not that some actions to support the economy aren't justified. If we don't take action both the economic and health results could follow the worst-case projections. But can we quickly do a better job of figuring out what that something is in time to matter economically? And couldn't we do better now--and be better able to afford even a shotgun approach that wastes money--if we'd spent the last decade reducing our deficit during an expanding economy?

I'm skeptical that Russia's Arctic military efforts are anywhere near as good as they pretend: "Russian military actions in this remote region have followed a much more solid, complex, and result-oriented path." The Soviets weren't very good at operating in Arctic conditions--I believe the Norwegians called the Soviet "over-snow" vehicle a joke.

I'd noted a Houthi win in Yemen recently, which indicated that the slow Saudi advance had been stopped. This is part of a trend in the pro-government Saudi-backed side losing forces, including the UAE (which I knew about) and Sudan (which I did not know).

I wrote that I thought Russia was at a disadvantage in a war with Turkey given the geography. This author writes about the relative weakness of Russian technology and warfighting revealed in the recent military clashes. Which makes a Russian air and naval attack on Turkey less promising for Putin.

So we are on "war footing" over the Wuhan Flu? I don't know about you, but I've felt America is on war footing since about September 11, 2001.

Hopefully the American people can separate enough for fifteen days to slow the spread of the Wuhan Flu and make it easier for the federal government to spend money to overcome the economic effects of the epidemic.

I will never again mock some television show or movie that involves a character kicking a piece of faulty equipment in frustration and getting it to work. Tip to Instapundit.

Egypt is winning its fight against ISIL in Sinai. Although Egypt doesn't want accurate information out there about how the fight is going.

I was going to donate some old coats and jackets to free up closet space, but they've been sitting around all winter as I've forgotten to drop them off at those bins around town for clothes. Now winter is almost over. But it occurred to me after I left my coat in my car when I visited my mother last week to avoid bringing in a coat potentially covered in the Wuhan Flu and then left it untouched in car for two days that since the Wuhan Flu virus can live on hard surfaces up to three days, that I can take advantage of that. Why not put my coat (or jacket) in a plastic bag, seal it up, put a tag with the date on it, and toss it in my car for 4 days? I have enough coats and jackets to do that and wear a fresh coat outside every time I go out, using the car trunk as a safe storage area. My plan is the same for N95 masks if that seems needed. If I go out, put it in a ziplock bag when I'm back home, put the date on the bag, and wear a new one for the next time. In theory, four would let you leave every day once if you want to trust the "95" level of filtering. I may be off on my knowledge, but that seems to make sense if the virus really does last just 3 days on surfaces.

Sweden will send 150 special forces to Mali to fight jihadis. That's nice. But the Swedes might want to save them for use in Malmo, as I have suggested might be a growing problem Sweden (from this data dump): "'Gangs' of unknown membership in Malmo have been violent--including a car bomb. Swedish authorities are creating a task force to combat the mysterious problem. Well they should given that it is a totally new thing to have 100 explosions in a yearThe Danes are tightening border controls to avoid spill-over. I'm so old I remember when the problem was mere 'youths.' Now they're organized. I stand by my prediction at the end of this post. Am I wrong?"

The United States is siding with Turkey in their clashes with Russia in Syria. It was certainly good for America not to have a total break in relations with Turkey until they get over their Erdogan problem. We'll see if Erdogan does enough to get more than our sympathy about their nuts being in a vice.

Here's hoping a Wuhan Flu-sparked recession is sharp but short. Tip to Instapundit.

Our military reacts to natural disasters around the world. It is pitching in here at home within its limits.

I think the woman made a huge mistake to shelter in place with her two boyfriends. The men will find they can play video games together, don't whine when fresh fruits and veggies run out, and that they don't go through toilet paper and soap as fast as she does. Plus she is kind of bossy, right? She'll be out looking for another place to shelter in before too long.

The CCP Virus (tip to Instapundit)? That's reasonable. I still go with the Wuhan Flu, but I renamed what CCP stands for.

China threatened--through a proxy--an electromagnetic attack on our Navy ship operating lawfully in the South China Sea. China illegally claims the vast majority of that international waterway. The threat came in response to a Navy exercise there.

Yes, those two senators should resign or be expelled if they won't go--and be prosecuted if it is actually illegal rather than frowned upon. But I'll wait for this to go past an accusation.

The Defense Production Act--with a bonus attack on Trump that has nothing to do with explaining the act. Who is Reed kidding? If Trump had jumped on this authority earlier, the Resistance would have considered it proof that the Trumptatorship was finally here as they've predicted all along!

After the Idlib clashes and the ceasefire in Syria, Turkey sees their choices as moving toward America and Israel, sticking with Russia and Iran, or trying to balance between the choices (and, I'll add, just pissing everyone off). I think the real choice is based on how Turkey can wage war on Assad without dragging in Russia on Assad's side.

Russia isn't (belatedly) acting as if they have the Wuhan Flu under complete control, notwithstanding their quick closing of their border with China. The Russian people are wary of believing any government assurances that all is well.

The narco-subs head for Europe.

I'd wondered about the Chinese nationals caught photographing sensitive sites here. There were more than I noticed in the media and China appears to be behind it, taking advantage of low punishments for getting caught. China doesn't play well with others. Although the targets of their espionage--including America--has all too many willing participants.

Will the Wuhan Flu lead to a harder and faster Brexit than planned to keep the virus out of Great Britain?

Yes, bringing pharmaceutical production back from China to America would clearly be a good idea. More decoupling will follow. China's crude propaganda to deflect blame for the Wuhan Flu to America will accelerate that rather than encourage us to get back to business-in-China as usual.

I'm amazed (tip to Instapundit) the media can devote so much effort to attacking the fake news obscure source mote when the figurative beam in their own "reporting" obscures their sight so much. Okay, I'm not amazed. I'm just amazed that more people haven't been suspicious of the judgment of our media all along, as I note in my sources and methods page.

ACK! really is a moron. She thinks Ann Arbor suppressed voters in the primary election? Good Lord, I stood in a looong line in 1980 to vote for Reagan. Suck it up and do your damned duty, eh?And maybe if the students this year had planned ahead to register they wouldn't have had to wait in such long lines. Argggh.

I went to the store for perhaps the last time on Thursday for some vegetables and miscellaneous stuff as long as I was there. I have been balancing between replenishing food while I can and staying locked down. (How long are our evenings going to be ordinary but concerned?) Not very crowded. Still no Ramen or toilet paper (I didn't look for disinfectant). I walked there for some fresh air and tried to be friendly and upbeat to the people I saw. And I thanked a young man working at the store for keeping the food flowing. And sh*t got serious as the local mall closed before the two polo shirts I ordered could arrive for pick up! One project of mine for quarantine status is cleaning out old clothes to free up space. I had more old polo shirts than I'll ever wear. So why not get a few new ones to supplement my more recent ones and dump the old ones? I may treat the dozen I identified as disposable shirts to wear and toss rather than have to do laundry during quarantine.

Russia is trying to undermine European confidence in their governments' ability to deal with the Wuhan Flu. Well of course the a-holes are doing that.

One thing I did after going to the store was a practice for every time I have to go out during this crisis. When I returned I washed my hands, removed objects from pockets with right hand, took off coat with right hand, and put it in a plastic bag with a tag dated today. I washed my hands again and then sealed the bag up and put it away. I have other coats to wear and in four days I can use the coat again if the virus does die on surfaces in three days. I washed hand again and tossed all clothes in the washing machine, then took a hot shower. Then I bleached the door knobs inside and out. I very carefully pulled out groceries with lots of hand washing and threw the plastic bags in the trash rather than save them--I have lots accumulated. And then hand washing again. Old anal retentive MOPP gear procedures are coming back. Hopefully my forays out are limited.

And this Saturday was the last game night, with two friends coming over. We tested a skype connection for a fourth and that may be a basis for virtual game hosting that we are discussing for future game nights for the duration.

Are we overreacting to the Wuhan Flu on thin data? Beats me. If we are artificially hobbling our economy to fight the covid 19 virus I hope the economy will roar back when the reaction is eased and lifted. But I have no basis to judge as apparently smart people disagree on the severity.

So last year Putin tried to engineer the return of the Khadaffi dynasty in Libya. Effing a-holes. And what's the bloody point of a weak already overstretched Russia having an outpost in Libya? I swear to God, they need the attention, don't they? And remember that the NATO drive-by in 2011 was supposed to "learn" from Iraq by demonstrating the wisdom of knocking out a dictator and keeping America out in the post-war so the locals can quickly work out their differences without America's terrible influence. Right.

Good Lord, the media questions in the Friday Wuhan Flu press conference for a while that focused on how they are being treated by the president for their crappy coverage of the crisis sounded like a bunch of self-centered 8th graders pouting about how someone didn't invite them to a sleep over. Eventually they gave up after wasting time on their damned feelings. Do a better job and they won't get accurately described. Also, the repeated demands that the president hold the hands of those afraid of the virus was just pathetic. People are tougher than the press corps gives us credit for. As I've said before, I don't need the president to offer me soothing words of comfort to work the problem. And honestly, if the president did offer soothing words of comfort he'd be accused of sugar-coating a crisis. No win there, eh? I'm not the only one to feel this way.

When it comes to the Wuhan Flu, no news is not good news in war-destroyed Syria. I'm sure Russia and Iran will step up quickly to help their client state. Or will Assad see this as an opportunity to really kill off his enemies--and perhaps his two-edged allies, too--if only he can weaponize this whole crisis?

South Africa to put up fence on border with Zimbabwe to stop Wuhan Flu carriers. The epidemic is expected to get worse in Africa.

Italy is compelled to clamp down more from their increasing Wuhan Flu death toll. But is their data accurately identifying cause of death?

Keeping our trucks moving is the logistics side of our response to the Wuhan Flu and rather than shutting the facilities down, we should do what it takes to keep the infrastructure running to keep the drivers on the road.

Oh FFS, Trump was joking when he said that!

Taliban forces hit an Afghan base and, with the help of infiltrators, killed a number of Afghan troops and made off with their weapons and ammunition. As long as American and NATO forces aren't leaving as quickly as we'd like because of the Wuhan Flu, perhaps we can do some more useful killing the enemy while we remain. Force protection is taking on a whole new meaning at American bases in the United States as commanders need to quarantine troops rotating home so they don't spread the coronavirus to healthy troops--and to the civilian world, of course. The attack hit a security checkpoint.

Let's hope that the Russian arms industry is the only victim of China's Western-patterned arms development and training practices.

It's not good that Wuhan Flu cases are doubling very quickly in America. But it is good that we are finally testing to discover the existing fact. We've been told we would see a dramatic increase from more testing. So this is what is happening, right?

Strategypage could use more subscribers. As I've long said, if you read only one source it should be Strategypage.

This author says that using the Navy's hospital ships to help cope with the Wuhan Flu in New York City is a mistake because they are geared to combat trauma cases and not viruses, so an infected patient who gets onboard could quickly spread the Wuhan Flu across the ship. Also, the ships are fully staffed by reservists so the ships will pull from the civilian health system. He makes a compelling case although I admit this is outside my usual lanes.

I got nothing:
 

That's neat. I'm shocked the Russians aren't pressing it into navy service.

Huh? If put into service, an SR-72 would not be a Mach 6 bomber based on the designation alone, right? The headline implies more than the story that basically says that if this recon plane works it could be scaled up to allow a payload eventually.

I watched that exchange live and I don't think it reaches the level of "sparring" as much as the media desperately wants to portray it that way to harm Trump. We have unknowns and opinions involved. I'd bet on Fauci, but let's see, and it doesn't even matter who is right at this point.

China's propaganda offensive to deflect blame for the Wuhan Flu is reinforced by high profile shipments of medical supplies and experts abroad. If the epidemic isn't actually under control at home, this could backfire on the Chinese Communist Party as people get angry that needed supplies are going overseas, no?

Yes, shutting down our economy could inflict lasting damage if it goes on too long. Economic shutdowns need to be used to figure out how to operate in a Wuhan Flu environment and not to simply go on until the virus is defeated. Tip to Instapundit.

Locusts.

I mentioned this in Congo (former Zaire) two weeks ago. I do worry that with multiple serious problems like locusts and Wuhan Flu that war suddenly seems to somebody less dramatic and damaging by comparison.

Again, while God helps those who help themselves, I think God is fairly intolerant of the stupidly defiant.

A tour of non-Australian air forces around the Indian Ocean.

This story about supposed lack of response by Trump and Congress to intelligence warnings about the Wuhan Flu sounds like the intelligence bureaucracy striking "back" (that is, defending their turf) at Trump. So you are telling me that Congress responded to the Wuhan Flu warnings by wasting time on impeachment? Oh, wait, this is really just about Trump. Never mind. Intelligence is never terribly clear. So this line of attack seems unlikely. Fire up the Wayback Machine, too, to remember the cries of racism when Trump cut off travel from China in January. Maybe that action was rationally based on the intelligence, eh? And of course, Senator Schumer warned about the power of the intelligence bureaucracy to stick it to Trump. I'm taking this "news" with a grain of salt salt tablet.

Does Russia still need Belarus? Need? No. Want? You bet. And for NATO, Belarus may be the most important territory in modern Europe.

Screw the 1619 Project:


Japan, which seemed to have a handle on the Wuhan Flu, doesn't seem to have a handle on it any more.

So the strategic reserve of N95 masks was drawn down in 2009-10 and not restocked. Huh. Obama should answer for why that wasn't done for the next 6 years. But Trump should answer for why it wasn't done the last 3, of course. Just because Obama effed up doesn't excuse continuing the error after he left office. And yeah, I figured N95 masks work despite the conflicting claims and actual usage. But I did not lose faith in what I hear from government officials. As I recommend with any news, evaluate it based on the sources, their motives, and your knowledge of the subject. The people giving you words to hear or read are almost entirely incapable of spoon-feeding you the news. You have to sift it out, with greater or lesser degrees of difficulty based on the circumstances.