Turkey under "Sultan" Ergodan seems like it wants to rebuild the Ottoman caliphate at least in terms of influence. But the use of his military power to achieve that is problematic.
Does Erdogan think this will work?
In its approach to Syria, Cyprus, and Libya, as well as the United States and perhaps even Russia, Ankara has gambled on assertive policies to advance a range of interests in concrete ways. So far, this strategy has achieved some important short-term results, but it carries serious long-term risks. Specifically, it risks becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy, whereby Turkey’s aggressive response to perceived enemies and threats turns them into a reality.
One reality is that Turks don't want to die for a new caliphate:
In the northwest (Idlib province) two more Turkish soldiers were killed, and two others wounded, by a Russian air strike. So far this month about twenty Turkish troops have died in Syria. The Turks seek to avoid these casualties because they are very unpopular with Turkish voters who, in general, do not support getting involved in Arab civil wars or rebellions. For centuries, before the Turkish Ottoman Empire was dissolved in 1918, the Turks tried to use local forces to keep the peace in the many Arab provinces of their empire.
This is a recent severe blow to that preference:
Turkish officials said at least 33 of its military personnel were killed in the attack on Thursday night, and more than 30 others injured.
The strike could have been by the Syrians or the Russians, but that is a distinction without a difference at this point.
And this precision strike is just one part of a trend that puts Turkey in a real bind:
Aaron Stein, director of the Middle East program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Philadelphia, said, “Ankara is in a bind. They have to do something, but doing something means tangling with a more powerful adversary, Russia.” Aaron told Al-Monitor, “They must be thinking they can try and calibrate a response to try and keep Russia out of it. They also must be thinking this many not be possible, so we are going to need help from our allies.”
Yet Erdogan picks on an easier target to drag NATO into the fight against Russia:
NATO envoys held emergency talks at the request of Turkey, a NATO member, and scores of migrants began converging on Turkey's border with Greece seeking entry into Europe after Turkey said it was “no longer able to hold refugees.” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose country already hosts more than 3.5 million Syrian refugees, has long threatened to “open the gates” for millions of refugees eager to flee to Europe unless more international support was provided.
How neighborly. And ally-like.This is going to work just swell for Erdogan, no doubt.
Without NATO help to perform the delicate task of removing Erdogan's crown jewels from the vice he built and tightened, if the Turks have any hope of limiting their casualties in their foreign imperial ventures, proxies are necessary:
Turkey has already used Syrian proxies to fight in northwest Syria in Idlib and for their Kurdish incursion in the east. But at least those Syrians are fighting in their own country. Being sent abroad to Libya as some sort of Turkish Janissary Corps to fight for the GNA against the LNA in that civil war is rather new.
Can Turkey really mimic Iran's policy of fighting its enemies to the last dead Arab?
Not if Turkey keeps doing this:
Turkish reprisals killed 20 Syrian soldiers in the battleground northwestern province of Idlib on Friday after a bombardment Ankara blamed on Damascus killed 33 Turkish soldiers, a monitor said.
Refusing to respond would cause problems, too. But why would Syria restrict its retaliation to Turkish proxies?
Turkey may be counting on a quick UN declaration to freeze the conflict for now:
The U.N. Security Council has scheduled an emergency meeting on the escalating conflict in Syria’s northwest Idlib region, the last major opposition stronghold in the conflict-torn country.
This is all pretty amazing. With the enemies Erdogan is creating with a militarized foreign policy, can Turkey really afford to alienate America and NATO?
As I noted in a January data dump:
Erdogan is alienating NATO ally America in favor of promoting friendship with long-time enemy Russia. And outside of Erdogan's fantasy world, Russia backs Syria's attacks in northwest Syria over Turkish objections--which continues to make progress in Idlib province--while Russia and Turkey are on opposite sides in the Libyan civil war. Brilliant!
I wonder if Turkey will find it needs the good will of its NATO allies that Erdogan is peeing on by cozying up to Putin's Russia?
Yeah, Turkey finds it has that need.
The whole foreign policy is kind of confusing. If Erdogan worries about a coup by his much-purged military, having it fight abroad against an easy target to keep it too busy to overthrow him makes sense. But Erdogan isn't doing that. He's trying to fight by proxies. And taking on Russia at the same time. Again:
Erdogan hasn't earned our help to salvage his imperial ambitions. All we owe our Turkish NATO ally is help to deter a Russian attack on Turkey itself.
Our policy should be to cauterize the Erdogan wound that harms American-Turkish relations until Turkey recovers.
UPDATE: More:
One of the more threadbare aphorisms in foreign-policy circles is that Pakistan negotiates with the West by pointing a gun at its own head. Under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey has updated this unique bargaining technique by contriving to aim one pistol at the West even as it presses another to its own temple.
Ultimately we do need to stand with our problem-child Erdogan-run NATO ally if the Russians go after Turkey.
UPDATE: The Turks are at the Gates of Vienna again:
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Saturday that his country's borders with Europe were open, as thousands of refugees gathered at the frontier with Greece.
Migrants played a cat-and-mouse game with Greek border patrols throughout the night and into Saturday, with some cutting holes in the fence only to be turned back by tear gas and stun grenades. Greek authorities also fired tear gas to repulse attempts by the crowd to push through the border.
The move by Turkey to open its border, first announced Thursday, was seen in Greece as a deliberate attempt to pressure European countries.
Remember that the NATO alliance doesn't have to help Turkey with a full armed response. The alliance is only obligated to provide help to a member under attack as each nation in the alliance sees fit to provide.
So how will this Erdogan decision affect that assessment if the Turks need help?
UPDATE: Will Russia and Turkey go to war over Syria?
Over the days before the strikes, Russian military circles and associated pundits have discussed various quasi-military scenarios vis-à-vis Turkey, a menacing signal of where the situation may be heading.
“Should there be a massive military incursion of the Turkish army into Syria, things may spin out of control. The risk of a large-scale military regional conflict is high,” Ret. Col. Mikhail Khodarenok wrote on Feb. 21.
Well, it would be an air and naval war, with Turkey blocking air and sea shipments from Russia to Syria. Turkey has the edge. So if there is a war I don't see Russia starting it. Unless you think Russia would use nukes against Turkey to win.
