Wait. What?
Turkey has asked the U.S. to deploy two Patriot missile-defense batteries on its southern border to free it to punish any future attacks by Russian-backed Syrian troops, according to a senior Turkish official in Ankara. ...
Turkey doesn’t see the Patriot request -- made to a NATO ally at a difficult time for the country -- as requiring any concessions on its part, the official said.
Naturally Erdogan doesn't see any need for concessions. Nice work if you can get it. But as Erdogan has found Russia has overcharged for Russia's limited cooperation, Erdogan will find he has overloaded our patience with his behavior.
And Turkey doesn't want to wait for their S-400 system bought from Russia that they tested at the end of last year to be set up? Spring deployment isn't far away. Would NATO really decide to help and deploy before then?
It's almost as if Turkey doesn't trust that the S-400 isn't compromised by Russia. Fancy that.
And now Turkey finds it has to define the re-reset:
The Turkey-Russia relationship is in the midst of a major reset. The outbreak of hostilities in Syria's Idlib province has left 13 Turkish soldiers dead and seven Turkish military posts under siege by Russian-backed Syrian government forces. Prior policy convergences between Turkey and Russia had raised speculation about the prospect of a Turkish-Russian strategic partnership dominating the security architecture on Europe's southern borders. However, Ankara seems to have overplayed its hand in what is fundamentally a transactional relationship with Moscow. A total rupture in Turkish-Russian cooperation is unlikely, even in the event of a Turkish counter-offensive.
And hey, why does Russia need Turkey now? Turkey is reliant on Russian energy exports, Russia defended their client Assad in Syria, Russia got Turkey to take the Trojan Horse S-400 which killed F-35's in Turkish hands on Russia's southern flank, and Crimea is annexed and safely in the rear view mirror.
Mission accomplished as far as Putin is concerned. Does Turkey provide Russia with any advantage now that is worth the price Russia would need to pay? Perhaps not.
So here we are with Erdogan setting a red line in Syria with Assad, the Russians, and Iran on the other side of that line and edging across every day.
We should try to get NATO to help Turkey. A problem child ally is better than an enemy. And given the long history of Russian-Turkish wars, it shouldn't be terribly hard to pull Turkey back--even before Erdogan is gone.
But there should be Erdogan concessions. Does Erdogan really believe that Trump of all people will hand Ergodan a gift under the circumstances?
Like Turkey looking the other way while we evacuate our nuclear bombs from Incirlik air base. And other things that stop the increasing authoritarianism that is crushing rule of law to make up for Erdogan's failed alliance with Russia.
We do have leverage for good behavior.
*In case you've forgotten that gem of Smart Diplomacy.
UPDATE: Frenemy Mine:
The current Turkish government is Islamic and backs Islamic political movements like the Moslem Brotherhood and will tolerate some Islamic terror groups. The Russians don’t agree with this tolerance towards Islamic political and militant groups. Historically the Turks and Russians were always rivals and often at war with each other. Although the Russian and Turk empires dissolved a century ago, the ancient animosities did not. Now Turkish and Russian forces are fight[ing] each other in Syria and Libya. ...
Undeterred the Turks are openly calling on the Russians to decide if they are a friend of Turkey or not. The Russians don’t want to make an open declaration, at least not yet.
A match made in Hell.
Also, Turkey is sending normal and not jihadi Syrian fighters to fight for Turkey's side in Libya. I had earlier speculated that Turkey might want to kill off jihadis from Syria in Libya while fighting Turkey's enemies there. I guess not.
