Sunday, February 16, 2020

Weekend Data Dump

How woke do you have to be to believe this? I swear, they just pass out PhDs to anybody these days, don't they? Tip to Instapundit.

Russia claimed to have detected six American F-35s flying along the Iran-Iraq border during Iran's missile barrage at two of our bases in Iraq post-Soleimani strike. Maybe. But remember that stealth isn't just about being undetected. The planes aren't invisible. Stealth also makes the planes harder to track and keep a lock on it for firing at the stealth plane.

The Wuhan Flu coronavirus has prompted plenty of articles speculating about whether this will cripple the Chinese Communist Party control of China. My less direct contribution is here. But I realize that hopes rush ahead of facts. I'd rather have a prosperous and friendly China. But when the choice looks like it is between a prosperous and aggressive China or a collapsed China incapable of being aggressive, I'll take the latter. Of course, the problem is that the CCP might decide that the prospect of collapse requires aggressiveness abroad to prevent the coming collapse. Even losing a war will seem like an acceptable price to pay if it keeps the CCP in charge.

You know life is good when you think you are out of beer and you happen to find four cans in a cold storage pantry.

Nothing bad will happen to the Democratic partisans masquerading as whistleblowers, as Democrats allege these days. That sort of thing was reserved for whistleblowers in the prior administration.

I've been mentioning India's inability to even try to match China's rising military power effectively. India's navy isn't going to gain any ground on China any time soon. Heck, China might not even need to deploy their navy to hit India's fleet pretty hard, the way I see it.

There are a lot of panicky stories about the coronavirus out there and I have no idea if they are true and we should be worried, potentially true and the stories are designed to prompt a reaction to prevent the worse from happening, or just a means by authors and media outlets to generate eyeballs on their stories.

The counter-offensive is late but needed.

This is a good and proper move, but a Democratic president would have done it in three days--to the cheers of the media. Tip to Instapundit.

Why do I get the feeling that Bernie Sanders is taking notes about what Maduro is doing in Venezuela for exactly how much free market he'll need to allow to keep the teetering corpse of socialism he wants to foist on America intact for his term of office? I really hope his popularity is a narrow base of ignorant young people magnified by Twitter and not reflective of the Democratic Party.

Biden keeps emphasizing that he'll get a primary win when African-American voters are finally in play. But maybe not. Am I too cynical to assume this story and this story were floated by Biden people to hurt those candidates also in the so-called moderate lane? And who was digging into the ancestors of Buttigieg for this woke kill shot (ancestry is character embedded in your DNA, they say, unlike gender ...).

If you paid attention you never thought the Syrian civil war was "simple." You may note that I started calling it a "multi-war" at one point because it was too complex to be called a "civil war" as if it was a simple tale of government versus rebels.

I understand why some Republicans loathe Trump. Hello! Long history of despising Trump as a clown and liberal here! But I don't understand why, after seeing his policies and seeing what the Democrats offer as an alternative, that there are Republicans trying to defeat his reelection. That option is for primaries and it failed in 2016 and is still-born this year. So get over it. Seriously, Biden is the Great Never Trump Hope?! Again, I understand the basic feeling. Been there, done that. I just don't understand the response of working against him when we can see what the alternative is. Seriously, if Bernie is the Democratic nominee they fear most, would Bernie's victory in the primaries be enough to get those people to vote for Trump in the fall?  I won't miss Trump when he leaves the political scene, but I hope that is in January 2025.

This gets to the point of my oft-repeated warning that trying to control the expanding federal bureaucracy is a fool's game for Republicans. The only solution is to shrink it. Pity this correct proposal for one slice of that problem will die in the House.

General Flynn was screwed by our prosecution bureaucracy, although I think failing to level with his bosses was grounds for firing. I don't understand why he didn't report honestly to Pence way back when.

We need the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court to protect our country from terrorists and other foreign threats at home. But we need to make sure Americans trust the court to focus on actual enemies. The abuse of the courts to target political enemies and undermine domestic liberties must be punished and safeguards put in place to rebuild trust in the court. Do that or Americans will demand its dismantling to the detriment to our security.

Okay, this joint American-German intelligence coup was impressive. We only had indirect intelligence on the Soviets and Chinese, but still. Bravo. I've long assumed (hoped?) that our CIA was better than the publicized failures indicated. But God almighty it is not "unsettling" that we might have done nothing "about countries that used Crypto machines while engaged in assassination plots, ethnic cleansing campaigns and human rights abuses." Ask Churchill (although this author rejects the conventional history of that issue). The balancing issue is accurate even if the example isn't true in part or in whole.

Judging the rise of China's military is difficult because the shiny new weapons are less effective than technical specifications because of personnel and "softer" issues that are needed to exploit the capabilities of those weapons.

For over three years people on the left have delighted in saying that Trump could shoot somebody on Fifth Avenue and his fans wouldn't reject him. This is meant to belittle Trump's fans (and we'll skip by the Obama worship for this point). Today that might actually happen. Not because Trump's fans are fanatically blind. But because his fans have seen the media accusing Trump of various ridiculous crimes for three years and likely wouldn't believe the news of a shooting until verified by more trusted sources.

The Army is again going to try to get a design for an infantry fighting vehicle to replace the Bradley. The Army wants it optionally manned. My Infantry magazine article on this angle for a "virtual" squad gets the Army closer to that unmanned option.

American forces clashed with Syrian forces in eastern Syria. There are reasons to stay in Syria. But there is a price to pay despite those horrified that Trump might order a withdrawal. As I've been saying, we need to figure out what we are willing to fight and die for in eastern Syria.

While I am concerned that our Trump-era economy is sustained by unsustainable federal spending deficits, I'm more concerned about the deficits themselves. Keep in mind that those deficits didn't sustain our economy during the Obama years.

American warplanes staged a show of support for Taiwan after China staged a show of threat to Taiwan.

Mass murderer? Mass destroyer of everything that any of us might love or cherish in the whole [world]? Murdering brown people for profit?  Are Roger Waters and the people applauding him literally insane from Trump Hysteria Condition? I can understand opposing Trump' policies, or disliking Trump, or even despising Trump personally. But this is loony toons level of gibbering nonsense. Say, speaking of a record of bombing brown people.

I've been reading things about the J-20 China stealth plane that seem to imply that the plane is fully stealth from all aspects and not stealthy from the front only, as I thought. This CSIS report on the plane talks a lot about the plane until conceding late that the plane has an "emphasis on frontal stealth". So we've got that going for us. As I note in my post, dispersing friendly radars could prevent China from having a corridor that keeps their frontal stealth facing our detection systems. Maybe stealthy long-endurance American UAVS could be a picket line to detect J-20s as they pass our line of drones to detect the J-20s from the rear or flank.

Once more, with feeling.

Comparisons to Trump in 2016 of Bernie Sanders winning the Democratic nomination this year by having a committed minority behind him plus a divided field against him who can't gather the majority anti-Sanders vote ignores that the 2016 Republican contest was basically winner takes all in each state while the Democratic contest is proportional delegate allocation, meaning losers keep going and winners don't win decisively. The Republican process is designed to get a winner. The Democratic process is designed to give out participation ribbons--until the "super delegates" (or whatever they are called now) of party insiders weigh in to get a winner. That system amuses me every time a Democrat complains about the Electoral College.

I'm just a little amused about Bernie Sanders supporters being called "digital brown shirts." Brown Shirts is a dog whistle for Nazis, although I doubt that is literally what the comment meant in practice. Still, Bernie's campaign complained bitterly about the association. Nazism. It's not just for baselessly accusing Republicans of being.

The Marines are getting into the ship-killing business. Good. Supporting the fleet is in their lane.

That's different. Because reasons. You do remember Obama speaking about Hillary's illegal and unsafe private email server, right? I don't like any of that command influence stuff. So I'm not defending Trump for saying something even though he is right on the merits. But now it is a Constitutional crisis? Related memories back when this was business as usual for our media rather than a Constitutional crisis.

The Navy plans a buying spree for anti-ship missiles. That seems prudent.

It may seem outrageous that we built F-35s that can't really fight, but we did need to train pilots and ground crews to operate the fighting F-35s, no? So using those early F-35s for an aggressor squadron to help our pilots face Chinese or Russian stealth planes seems like a no-brainer good idea. Apparently Congress disagrees. For the moment, at least, to be charitable. Tip to Instapundit.

The French have developed a second-generation fuel cell air-independent propulsion system.

The National Guard wants a Space Force National Guard. There is no Navy Guard and no Coast Guard Guard. I'm not inclined to think this request should be granted. Although I'm willing to listen to the arguments, I suppose.

Russia is a regional power with defense needs spanning Europe and Asia that they can't afford now. If Russia wants to pay the money needed to gain influence in Africa, I say have a ball. What objective is that "advance" going to achieve? Destabilizing Africa? Are African governments really cooperating with that? If they do, how can we counter that through AFRICOM? I say every ruble spent in Africa is one less spent in Europe. I'm really just not impressed with Putin's grasp of strategery. He pokes and prods and when people notice, he puffs up his chest and boasts "I did that." Whatever.

Congress is free to wrestle with the president on war powers. It is complicated. Not that Congress could override a Trump veto on the resolution preventing him from taking "any military action against Iran without Congressional approval. That is too broad to be sustained by the courts, I think, given the president's role as commander in chief of the military. And I think it is shameful to assert that Congressional right in defense of Iran, making the legislation Iran's first line of defense. But that's just me I guess. On the other hand, maybe it isn't so harmful if--and given Iran's threats is that realistic?--it encourages Iran to keep their military options dormant lest they do something that not even this Congress will ignore. Since economic squeezing is our main effort to defeat Iran, that would not be a bad effect, eh?

Strategypage explains concussion (TBI, or traumatic brain injury) and PTSD injuries. The information is good but as with many posts of this nature, it is recycled as can be seen by the comment that for troops coping with the injury, "with the shape the economy is in, quitting your job is not a good option." Even trusted sources have to be watched.

Poland chooses the F-35A, and related discussion.

Remember, the Left thinks you are a Nazi because you are conservative even if you hate Trump as much as they do. I really don't get why conservatives--no matter how much you despise Trump--can hope the current socialist-friendly Democratic Party will win the presidency and Congress in the 2020 election. Tip to Instapundit.

The U.S. offered to help North Korea deal with the coronavirus spreading from China. I bet South Korea is glad to have the DMZ.

As we watch Assad continue to make gains against the remnant of opposition to his continued rule, let's not forget how the Kerry-Lavrov deal on Assad's chemical weapons paved the way for Assad's win by abandoning the rebels and inviting Russian involvement in Syria that eventually became direct intervention in 2015 and Russian-Iranian-Turkish cooperation. Are we still calling that Smart Diplomacy?

When the Russians persist in acting like aggressive a-holes they lose the right to complain when the targets of their aggressive a-holery react, as we and the Norwegians did.

Whose side are Moqtada al Sadr's "blue hat" supporters on? Sadr's side. My only shock is that they don't wear brown shirts. Next stupid question. We may yet live to regret letting that 3-time insurrectionist live. To be fair the article is a good one. The stupidity comment is for Iraqis who follow Sadr.

NATO will take a larger role in helping Iraq stabilize. America and Britain took the largest foreign role in winning the kinetic phases of the Iraq War early on, and I've long wanted allies to take on a bigger role in the stabilization mission. This is especially helpful as our military resets to deter Russia and China in conventional warfare. We'll see how this Phase IX ultimately looks like, I guess, with NATO help.

I'm not hopeful that there can be a real peace with the Taliban in Afghanistan despite the not-quite-an-actual-ceasefire. Even a sincere desire for peace by the Taliban--if it even exists now--will be undermined by Pakistan as it seeks to restore the alignment of the group it started to preserve Pakistan's influence in Afghanistan via those Islamist nutballs.

As the coronavirus Wuhan Flu looks worse every day as perhaps months of Chinese cover ups are exposed, China attempts a dramatic reboot of their effort to contain and reverse the epidemic. Let's hope it works and let's hope the rest of the world is braced to cope with the spread that took place while China was covering up the scale of the virus. And I really hope the concerns of worst case speculation are overblown. I still have no idea if I should be rationally concerned.

The United States military is working up efforts to contain the Wuhan Flu coronavirus within its ranks should it get hit with the virus, as a force protection measure. If the military is to carry out its missions, it needs to have sufficient personnel healthy enough to do their jobs. Which could included supporting civilian agencies cope with the Wuhan Flu if it spreads here. But no word on that contingency.

I wish Trump didn't use Defense Department funds for Mexican border barriers, but if Democrats won't provide the money directly what choice is there for this important government border security responsibility? And the idea that Democrats are putting out there that this could harm the ability of the military to react to a foreign or domestic emergency is nonsense. Would Congress really refuse to spend even more borrowed money in a crisis to replace that transferred money--or as much as needed above that? Please.

Yeah, tell me again that Trump supporters are deplorable.

He is not representative of the vast majority of Democrats, I readily concede. But the media silence on these violence-prone people is representative of the media's sympathies, no?

California's public pension system is run by a man with ties to the Chinese Communist Party? Why the ef not given all the odd actions Californians demand their government take--or not take. Just bounce the freaking California rubble. I'm inclined to just let the Democrats have the place--good and hard.

Snopes has gone full Trump Hysteria Condition nuts, but to be fair they dutifully serve their nutso readers.

I know I've mentioned this issue before, but relying on fines and penalties is a disgraceful way to raise money and this "taxation by citation" smacks of tax farming granted by the states to local governments on the backs of poor and working people. Government should be financed by direct taxes. The federal court system should be used to break this as arguably a civil rights violation.

Sri Lanka does not need high performance jets and so it is not a shock that bribery is involved in an old purchase from Ukraine.

Perhaps not wanting to let a coronavirus crisis go to waste, China has appointed a hardliner associated with oppressing religious believers to run the top political "advisory" body in Hong Kong.

Had I known that this kind of language to a superior can be technically legal if actually requested or ordered, I still would not have handled this suggested verbiage from my drill sergeant when speaking to the senior drill sergeant in basic training.any differently.

The United States Navy intercepted Iranian weapons bound for their Yemen Houthi allies. At least Iran is willing to supply weapons when asking Arabs to die for Iranian interests.

As a rule I want America to beat China in the technology race. But as China has started to catch up with us I kept reading articles about how China had an advantage of following the first developers which made their efforts cheaper than the cost of those who first invent something. But now China will reap the rewards of developing 5G phone technology first? Maybe that is so, but our being first in 4G didn't stop Chinese cyber-espionage using that technology against us, did it? So I'm concerned that China can beat us in a technology. But I don't know if it really matters unless China holds that capability as a monopoly for years or decades.

What is Duterte's major malfunction? Does he really think he doesn't need America to resist Chinese territorial claims on the Philippines in the South China Sea?

No prosecution of McCabe for lying to investigators. "Scooter" Libby--who didn't commit the underlying act that Armitage committed--was unavailable for comment. Totally fair, no doubt.

Belarusian dictator says Russia wants more integration with Belarus--that is, virtual annexation. I've long worried about an Anschluss like that, which makes more sense--for now--than challenging NATO member states that used to be part of the Soviet system. Belarus is a potential launching pad to hit the Baltic former Soviet but now NATO states.

"Bombshell" has been mis-used for so long by Democrats that I won't assume it is real when Republicans use it about the Obama administration involvement in the Russian conclusion nonsense. And yes, Russia interfered in 2016 at some low spending level--as Russians/Soviets have long done in our domestic politics--but there is no indication of Russian-Trump collusion.

I'm thinking that Iran's claim that our killing of Soleimani has made Iraqis eager to eject American troops from Iran is just Iranian spin in the ongoing Phase IX in Iraq over Iranian influence. If we screwed up, Iran would be quietly taking advantage of it instead of loudly trying to make people believe the claim is true. We are putting pressure on Iraq to reject the Iranians. Iran has influence in Iraq from fear, corruption, and waning admiration for Iran. We need to help and push Iraq's government to reject Iran's destructive influence.

Sure, our European allies say they are too focused on Russia to help with China. That's fine, they are far from China and more than symbolic European deployments to Asia aren't cost effective for them. But their credibility on their so-called focus would be higher if they made more of an effort to oppose Russia at the eastern borders of NATO.

Don't buy the Iranian nutball's assertion that Trump pushed America and Iran to the brink of war. This is just another example of the Iranians working with the pro-Iran Echo Chamber here in America to save Iran.

Iranians who hope for a better future have little faith in elections likely to "return" "conservative" to control in parliament. The myth of moderates who we can support to lessen Iran's nutballery versus conservatives who kill people at home and abroad amuses me in a "we're so screwed" sort of way. When the very nutball mullahs screen every candidate for office, Iranian so-called moderates are simply religious conservatives who wear suits and are able to avoid screaming "Death to America and Israel" in English, on camera, with visible spittle flying.

Is the coronavirus a "black swan" that threatens the Chinese Communist Party? My thoughts.

Not to dismiss this, but I'd think as the largest economy that we'd be able to have the largest absolute reductions in carbon emissions. The point is we don't get credit because we don't panic in the same way as other countries pretend to panic over climate change. It might be a little more impressive given that we are not the largest industrial country. We're behind China. I don't know if it is fair to say we are behind the European Union given that it is so far a collection of states and not a single political entity.

It looks like the Russians want to gently sabotage or take control of satellites and not just kill them with lots of debris the result. I guess Space Force gets no pause to think about uniforms and what to call their troopers.

Good news--if true. But can we trust coronavirus news from China?