Sunday, February 02, 2020

Weekend Data Dump

A pro-Iranian government (if not actually affiliated with Iran's mullahs) lobbying group, the National Iranian American Council, is back in action to defend Iran and recruit Americans to their banner. No doubt, given that the Iran nuclear deal Echo Chamber Band already got back together. And as that first article notes, the two worked together to get the awful Iran nuclear deal in 2015. Tip to Instapundit.

Wow! Kudos to that pilot for getting the plane down safely. Tip to Instapundit.

Iranian nutball president Rouhani is right that the Guardian Council's decision to bar candidates for office in Iran is a threat to democracy. But that kind of screening of candidates is business as usual in Iran, which observes the form of democracy without actually having democracy. If that horrifies Rouhani, wait until he finds out what other powers the Guardian Council has! Isn't it odd how thug rulers go to great lengths to appear to have Western-style democracy?

Have no doubt, the New York Times "1619 Project" is pure BS. It isn't history. It's propaganda. Anti-American propaganda. The Russians probably figure they don't need to interfere in the 2020 election with that abomination doing their work for them.

An interesting book review in the "why (post-World War II) America loses all its wars" genre. You know my view on that genre. Heck, I addressed that book twice, I see.

Yeah, support for Ukraine in America is just fine. As it should be.

I suspect the latest media declaration of a "bombshell" from John Bolton against Trump will, like all the others, be a dud or actually inflict collateral damage on the Democrats. It's like toddlers playing with firecrackers and matches.

I am disgusted with Europe's reaction to the just killing of the Iranian terror mastermind Soleimani, but I don't think that means Europe is useless to the Western alliance. America was late to World War I and World War II. We were still useful to the Western world. Let's not go overboard on complaining about our allies. They seem more cooperative than a lot of the modern Democratic Party, truth be told.

Fiscal shortfalls are crippling India's naval expansion plans. But don't forget their dysfunctional defense industry for a share of the blame.

Poland will buy F-35s.

Well that's just all kinds of stupid.

Last week I noted that American forces halted a Russian convoy heading for oil fields we protect in eastern Syria. Apparently that was the fourth time Russia has tried that.

My opinion is that every day that people think that Hillary Clinton might run for president and somehow return to a position of influence is another day that she can cash a check from people hedging their bets that she might win and take vengeance on those who abandoned her.

I noted that if Trump is impeached and removed from office for apparently reading his mind about why he is carrying out a foreign policy objective, no president can carry out their duties in the face of a hostile Congress. President Trump unveiled a Palestinian-Israel peace plan. How did AP frame that? "Trump looks to boost 2020 bid with peace plan, Jersey rally[.]" So the peace plan is about benefiting him and his reelection campaign? It's no different than his New Jersey rally? No doubt achieving peace will help Trump, but really? This isn't a foreign policy objective that has long been pursued by past presidents? What success isn't a help and what failure isn't a drag on reelection? And for God's sake, please let this be Peak Stupid in this insane line of thinking.

Can ATR-MCAS with enough data and processing power predict enemy battlefield intentions?

The precarious position of modern Mongolia. I find it amusing that the Mongol blood-filled history of rampaging across Europe and Asia is called "a proud cultural history dating to the founding of the Mongol Empire (1206-1368)." In 600 years will people be speaking of Germany's proud cultural history dating to the founding of the Third Reich?

I find it hilariously illustrative that only Von der Leyen has her face concealed in the group photo.

"Unanticipated" collateral damage. "We're from the government and we're here to help" really should scare if you if didn't ask for help. On the bright side, maybe one result is that China stole a lot of crap from us. Tip to Instapundit.

Last week I observed, "Democrats have dialed their frothy Resistance up to 11 since before the 2016 election. Impeachment puts it to 12. What will they be like in October?" Perhaps I worry too much. Is impeachment Peak TDS? Remember, you can dislike and/or oppose Trump without being deranged.

Keep in mind that the House Democrats picked their best case against Trump in their impeachment articles and claimed it was overwhelming. But they insist they need a fishing expedition of witnesses to make the case in the Senate. Okaay.

When that fails there will be a Coronavirus buyback program. Tip to Instapundit.

Despite claiming that Trump's delay of anti-tank missiles going to Ukraine (where they went into storage in western Ukraine) was a grievous harm to American national interests, three of the House impeachment managers voted against that military aid. Fancy that.

This practice caucus reveals that Bernie supporters are unclear on the concept of "persuading your party allies." That attitude will go over well during the real thing, eh? Treating fellow(?) Democrats as deplorables isn't the path to success. Tip to Instapundit.

This is small progress that hopefully indicates a trend. I have never liked civil forfeiture laws which target the poorest. That state power should be reduced, and until then the revenue should go to state general funds to reduce the incentive of police agencies to pursue civil forfeiture. Tip to Instapundit.

"Tactical" nuclear warheads have gone to sea on our Trident missiles. I don't like that. Not because it makes nuclear war more likely because it looks like we are ready to fight a small-scale nuclear war. If our enemies have the capability and we don't, a one-sided nuclear war is more likely. If Russia grabbed NATO territory and then threatened to use nuclear weapons to deter a NATO mobilization and counter-attack, what would we do? We have to be able to match an enemy to deter them. I oppose tactical nukes on our SSBNs in part because enemies might see a launch from the ocean and assume it is a full-size nuke, and then make a bad decision to use their own large nuke rather than wait to see if it is "tactical" or "strategic."

The Palestinians are angry at the US proposal for a two-state solution alongside Israel? One, they're always angry about something.  And two, the deal might be something that Israel can just unilaterally do. This may be more about dumping the Palestinians as too much bother to govern. If the Palestinians reject the deal the only thing they might be rejecting practically speaking is $50 billion in aid, a UN seat, and cooperation with Israel to help make things better for the Palestinians. Is Iran going to bail the Palestinians out? Even if Iran under sanctions could afford that, are the Palestinians unaware of the way Arab deals with Iran work? (After I wrote this I see that Scott Adams recognized the same aspect of not requiring the Palestinians to carry this out.)

China is going to get their student nationals expelled from America if they keep up this "thousand grain of sand" and campus Confucius Institute espionage hubs approach to espionage against America.

The United States has asked Iraq for permission to put Patriot missiles in Iraq to guard against a repeat of the Iran missile barrage that hit our bases and injured some of our troops from the blast concussion effects.

This article looks at Iran's network of proxies and allied groups. To be fair to Iran, they don't just want to fight Israel to the last Arab--Iran will happily sacrifice Afghanis and Pakistanis, too, in order to achieve the mullahs' objectives.

I think the question is too passively generic to be useful. Better for Moslems to ask what did they do to themselves. And calling pre-revolution Iran and Saudi Arabia "friendly rivals" is ridiculous. You can say that the rivalry was constrained because America was a friend of both Saudi Arabia and Iran under the shah. But who would say that Greek-Turkish relationship was anything but constrained for being NATO allies?

American and Iraqi forces have resumed joint anti-ISIL operations. So much for the brief post-Soleimani expulsion panic, I guess.

Is it just me seeing this or are a lot of pro-impeachment people grossly misinterpreting one particular Dershowitz defense of Trump's actions in the Ukraine phone call? I heard it and did not take it as a defense of doing anything that might help the president's reelection if the president thinks his reelection is good for the country. That is indeed a really bad standard. My reading of the defense is that if you are going to--as the Democrats have done--charge that an otherwise legal action is illegal because you somehow know the president's motive is purely political, you have to abandon that charge because a lot of things are perfectly legitimate as a matter of policy and will also benefit the president politically without reducing the policy legitimacy. That's it. Which does not seem like a bad standard at all. Indeed, convicting contrary to that standard is what seems like a really bad standard to me.

The F-35 gains fans.

The LCS is not as cheap as it was intended to be (shocking, I know), but I'd still rather have these less capable ships forward showing the flag just in case they are also the first targets of an enemy bolt-from-the-blue surprise attack. So, good: "Currently the plan is to have six LCS ships based in the Western Pacific, including three at Singapore. Another seven will be based in the Persian Gulf (Bahrain)." If the modules ever work, the good-on-paper LCS will be a flexible ship despite the higher cost. And on the bright side, that whole "brown" and "green" water deployment nonsense is apparently over.

In regard to Putin's plans to jumble the Russian government to let him stay in power, Putin says he will "give voters a say" on the issue. I believe him. Putin will absolutely give to the voters exactly what to say on that question.

The Wuhan Flu coronavirus may be nothing, but we need someone in charge of our response just in case. Here are some factors involved in the virus. Tips to Instapundit. Also, the virus is not a bioweapon that escaped into the wild.

I have no problem with the House of Representatives trying to claw back war-making powers from the president. Practically speaking, however, I think it is all about politics and trying to score points against the current president. Which doesn't make the effort illegal, of course. But really, this issue only gained urgency as Democrats bizarrely reacted to the fully justified and fully just killing of Iran's terror master Soleimani. The issue of war authority is complicated even apart from politics.

Why should Afghanistan be  a place that is an exception to Iran's efforts to kill Americans?

AFRICOM says that Iran is seeking to kill Americans in Africa. I admit I was suspicious of the Kenya attack recently: "Al Shabab's aggressive language and expansive threats to America after their attack on a joint US-Kenyan airfield in Kenya makes me wonder if the Iranians have pushed the Somali terror group to go after America."

We keep passing their deadlines for saving the planet. Shouldn't we either just give up and enjoy ourselves because it is too late or question their doomsday credibility? But as long as the fear merchants' fans continue to accept the "never minds" and new doomsday predictions, their gravy trains will continue showing up. Tip to Instapundit.

I wish Democrats were as doggedly determined to defeat our enemies abroad as they are to get rid of Trump without bothering with an election in November 2020.

And I want PETA replaced by AI, so neither of us will get what we want.

A number of countries are willing to work with the American proposal for an Israel-Palestinian peace plan. Look, trying to split the difference between destroying Israel and not destroying Israel has proven to be difficult to negotiate between the Palestinian leadership and Israel for many decades now. Maybe that game has to end to have any hope for moving on.

So ... there aren't enough Virus Americans involved to keep the perspective of the coronavirus front and center?

They've got to be effing kidding.

I've long been conflicted about General Michael Flynn. I did not know enough about him to have a solid opinion. If he lied to his bosses that was bad, but it seemed like he was being railroaded just to have a Trump scalp as a trophy. I began to suspect he really was given a raw deal about a year ago. And not it seems clear that my belated suspicion was right as were a lot of his supporters all along.

I've already heard about problems with the F-35 gun. It's still a problem. I'm not too worried because the plane isn't really designed to dogfight and I never expect the plane to strafe ground troops. Still, it would be nice if it worked as a last resort in self defense or to knock down non-combat warplanes without wasting a missile.

The United States will loosen up our restrictions on using landmines. Good. Before this we only reserved the right to use them to defend South Korea. Despite the widespread ban by a lot of countries that don't have or need landmines or don't misuse them in ways that kill civilians, bad actors still use them. That's the problem with the international agreement. And while our restrictions could be excused in the post-Cold War era, in the era of great power competition I'd like the ability to use manually placed or artillery- and air-delivered scatterable mines to halt or at least slow and degrade massed Russian armor and infantry.

Yes, Burkina Faso is playing with fire by training and arming civilian local defense groups to defeat jihadis. But that's a long-term problem that would be moot if the jihadis collapse the country because its military is unable to defeat the threat. That said, the local defense groups will need to be disarmed when the crisis passes and the military can handle the reduced threat. Once the threat recedes such armed groups can become private armies or gangs that pose a threat to the government and people. But one problem at a time.

Democrats have been trying to nullify Trump's election, starting with trying to get Trump Electoral College delegates to refuse to vote for him; and continuing with various impeachments charges or other ploys since he took office. What will they do after their actual flimsy impeachment case is rejected by the Senate despite their bizarre insistence that they overwhelming proved it (and by the way they want more witnesses than they interviewed secretly in the House to make their overwhelmingly proven case even more overwhel--wait. What?)? Their more unhinged followers could get out of hand.

I'd tighten security around the president. Because some of his opponents are seriously unhinged.

Given that the Treaty of Paris ending the American Revolution actually named the several states as the parties Britain was recognizing as independent as part of America (and even Americans didn't start thinking of America as the United States instead of these United States until after the Civil War), could Britain have pulled a slick move and declared war only on certain American states in 1812 in order to split apart an America divided on war with Britain? That never occurred to me until now.

English is a veritable rainbow of languages already, so I don't want to here another disparaging word about how Americans don't bother to learn other languages. Tip to Instapundit.

The global economy is taking a hit on fears of China's isolation from the global supply chain. But consider that while each country takes a hit from losing trade with China, China loses trade with everyone. That's gotta hurt. That might accelerate the industrial flight from China to other low-cost producers. And while Hong Kong protesters may not want to gather because of the coronavirus, harming the protests, maybe cutting off the mainland (tip to Instapundit) is kind of a virus-based declaration of independence, eh?

I've noted before that the 2016 election featured a formerly Democratic brand new Republican taking over the Republican Party and a never Democratic actual Socialist almost taking over the Democratic Party. And now we see Sanders the Socialist who seems to hate the Democratic Party (with justification considering the party rigging needed to heave the desiccated political carcass of Hillary Clinton across the primary finish line in 2016) seemingly having control of the Democratic Party within his grasp. This article isn't about that but does mention it. Still, given that commie-loving Bernie would push hard to be an autocrat "to save the planet" I hope the Democrat Party succeeds in a new round of "stop Bernie."

I don't know why this ship's mission is called a Freedom of Navigation Operation by the article author when the Navy clearly called it Innocent Passage. They are different and it is complicated as to what should be done.

It looks like we nailed the top scumbag in charge of Yemen's branch of al Qaeda. One more good jihadi, I hope.

Leadership has a point that special operations needs to police its own given some recent issues with behavior. But the special operators have a point that their job is to be mean and to kill our enemies. Stopping the special forces from being effective killers is dumb in wartime when results are more valued--and when the operators are more focused on the mission of killing--than satisfying Miss Manners. The effort may simply reflect that the leadership in Washington thinks we are effectively at peace and not at war. On the bright side, maybe we're getting closer to seeing the struggle as the Global Troubles. Just balance the behavior and the results, okay?

I don't believe Hillary Clinton would run as the vice president with Biden. Biden would not run the risk of "committing suicide" in his third week in office with a very sad note left behind about the pressures of the office being too much for him.

It is kind of funny that Brexit and the election of Trump have both been described as revolts against the elites. And Brexit Day and Trump's acquittal in the impeachment take place within days of each other.

Iran is boasting about their expensive underground ballistic missile "hangers" to protect missiles from air attack. Strategypage notes, as I have, that the entrances (and air vents) are still vulnerable to destruction by precision weapons. As I've asked, aren't these just tombs waiting to seal in the personnel manning them? They better have tunnel digging equipment inside with local power and oxygen. ISIL thugs apparently got a boost to their belief that Allah was protecting them when fuses to our penetrating bombs failed to work. We hope new versions work better. But if jihadis thought Allah protected them, why not build above ground? Just asking.

Heh:


Juan Guaido is still trying to get international support for getting the thug dictator Maduro out of office and hopefully end the slow-motion destruction of Venezuela.

Bravo, Professor Andrew Parker, simply magnificent.

People on the left like to (wrongly) say that Republicans are racist and puppets of the rich. Never mind that when candidate Obama spoke in 2008 of "bitter clingers" who might be uncomfortable with an African America as president he was speaking of Democratic primary voters. The Democratic debate stage has become rather white, based on voter preference in polls. The Democratic Party would not change the rules to achieve diversity. And now it is getting richer as the Democratic Party has changed the rules to allow another white billionaire, Bloomberg, to be on the next stage. Huh. The party elders really don't want socialist Bernie Sanders to stage a hostile takeover of the party, do they? I don't blame them. But how will Bernie's supporters take that?

Iraq has a new prime minister. The protesters who reject corruption and Iranian influence have a scalp. We shall see if he is any better at combating corruption and Iranian influence that is wrecking Iraq's chances for prosperity and stability.

Learning to live with GPS jamming and spoofing.

The French government continues to quietly ignore and beat anti-government protesters that persist in coming out to demand better opportunities.

I assume nothing on the Senate impeachment vote considering that leftists have attacked legislators before in recent history. Will some lunatic think he or she is acting to save democracy as so many on the left seem to bizarrely believe?

On the other hand, I have some hope that if Wednesday arrives and the vote for acquittal still looks solid that a good number of Democratic senators will join the almost if not totally uniform bloc of Republican senators in dismissing the charges. It would be a good signal in defense of some future Democratic president that partisan impeachments on trumped up charges are out of bounds as far as the Senate is concerned. That would be a fine tribute to the world's greatest deliberative body, I think.

I don't know if it is an iron-clad rule, but it sure seems as if the more city governments waste time on issues outside of their authority the worse they do on issues actually under their authority. Tip to Instapundit.

I used to like Bill Kristol. I can understand disliking Trump. I certainly have a history of that. I can understand wondering if his inner liberal will come out at some point. I worry about that (but the Democratic insane opposition has pushed Trump to be more conservative than he otherwise would have been, I believe). But I cannot understand the idea that Democrats and their policies are better than what a suspect and somewhat dick-like Trump has actually been doing on policy. I may think that Jonah Goldberg gets some of his criticisms of Trump wrong, but I do believe Goldberg at least is trying to call balls and strikes. He is worth reading and hearing. I'm not sure what Kristol is doing, and I just don't care. Tip to Instapundit.

(Misplaced) guilt, cowardice, and virtue-signaling