Checks paid for with borrowed money will help bridge the unemployment gap but cannot be a replacement for an economy based on work. We're not at the point where the robots can do the work for us, regardless of whether that is good or bad. And I hate to break it to you, but just printing money or minting super-expensive coins is not the answer for long.
So again, what are the conditions that let us re-start the economy? And can we just "re-start" the economy at our choice, like it is a mere machine under our control? What can the government do to make sure too many businesses don't hang back and risk going broke by starting up before there are customers?
And how long will Americans shut down? We're an unruly lot. And I say that with some pride. And we'll start to get used to the crisis as a new normal.
To be clear, right now we don't have a choice between fighting a health problem or fighting an economic problem. Failing to shut down to stop a health problem would cause an economic problem as too many people fall sick--and our health system will be overwhelmed--to keep the economy going.
Plus, keep in mind that it is better to stick with an adequate plan than to skip about looking for the perfect plan.
The hope is that with the current plan--whether it is perfect or adequate--stopping (or just slowing, so we can cope with our capacity to treat the sick and to hopefully see the virus mutate into a less lethal version) the health problem first will only cause an economic dip before we re-engage the economy. I hope we're right. I hope this guy is right.
And I hope we can make the right decisions to get through the dip. But I do have a nagging worry that we've over-reacted on early data that overstated the threat. Although I'm not advocating changing plans, because we started this one. And it at least seems adequate.
But again, this is out of my lane. So I have trouble evaluating.
UPDATE: Good:
The Trump administration is planning to issue guidelines categorizing counties across the nation as high-risk, medium-risk or low-risk to help state and local authorities decide whether to bolster or relax social distancing measures intended to combat the novel coronavirus.
We have a road map. Who knows when triggers can be pulled on this but the path forward is there.
I'm able to ride this Wuhan Flu out with minimal financial disruption or risk in the short term (long-term inflation risks are another matter altogether). I know that most of the country doesn't have that luxury. My worries are for those who can't work.
I'm hoping that we can do that sooner rather than later. And no, that is not a statement in defiance of "science."
UPDATE: There are trade offs even if we don't understand them.
UPDATE: Thinking about what a road map back from lockdown could look like.
