The president of Belarus said Thursday that his country is "being forced into integration” with Russia and insisted that real integration of the two countries' economies implied “sovereignty and independence” for Belarus.
“We remain committed, as always, to real integration without being forced into integration,” President Alexander Lukashenko said at a meeting with Mikhail Myasnikovich, chair of the Eurasian Economic Commission. ...
Merging with Belarus is seen by many as a strategy for Russian President Vladimir Putin to stay in power well past the legally mandated end of his presidential term in 2024 by becoming the head of a new state.
Does Putin think this will be more like the near-bloodless takeover of Crimea rather than the stalemate of the Donbas?
I honestly have no idea if Belarus would resist a Russian takeover attempt. Belarus is a lot bigger than Crimea. Or would Putin just need to seize control of Minsk to effectively take over the entire country?
But don't think this is about extending Putin's tenure despite formal term limits. Because Putin does not need to take over Belarus to stay in power as some have speculated:
Putin has options from taking Belarus and becoming the ruler of the entity that would be formed from Russia and Belarus to simply transferring his powers to whatever office he happens to hold.
He could be the postmaster general of Russia--or Hell, rub his absolute power in and take that office in some tiny seaside resort--if he has the authority to run Russia moved there.
And as long as Putin has a personally loyal military force at his back, who's going to object?
Still, Putin counts on his people not noticing that he is effing up royally. If that happens, other people with power might challenge Putin.
And is there a breaking point for Putin's support in Russia if he starts another foreign adventure that further isolates Russia from the West and pushes Russia deeper into vassal status under China?
Seriously, how many hollow victories in Europe can Putin shove before the Russians before they catch on that it is all about concealing Russian appeasement of China in Asia?
Putin seems insanely paranoid about the West and NATO. Perhaps it is very rational for him to pretend NATO is a threat to hide the groveling to China.
There is some brave actual resistance to Putin in Russia:
Thousands rallied in central Moscow on Saturday to call on President Vladimir Putin not to stay in power indefinitely, in the first major protest by the Russian opposition since the Kremlin chief announced controversial plans to change the constitution.
Are they enough? Are the protesters just the tip of the iceberg? Is Putin's personal army really loyal to him? Would the regular military stand by and let Putin do this?
If Putin goes after Belarus it is because he wants to get back as much of the former USSR as he can, and not because he wants to extend his rule.
America and NATO should care very much if Russia tries to take over Belarus.
The bright side is that there is a good chance he'll ef it up royally.
#WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings
UPDATE: Very related:
Belarus began holding joint military drills with 28 British Marines at a training ground in the north of the country this week at a time when relations with its traditional ally Russia are under strain.
The Belarus defence ministry has stated that the drills, which will run from March 2-14, are similar to events that have been held regularly with Britain for the past two years.
But they come as President Alexander Lukashenko has accused Moscow of trying to bully his country into merging with Russia by using oil supplies, loans and subsidies as leverage.
We don't have to like Lukashenko to like Belarus remaining free of Russian control.
