This is new:
As tensions between China and Japan escalate, China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has been told to prepare for war in a training directive issued by the General Staff Headquarters, which oversees the entire PLA. ...
“What has attracted attention is that the directive has called on Chinese forces to be prepared to fight using a particular Chinese term,” said Taylor Fravel, an expert on Chinese foreign policy and security at MIT.
The term, according to a report in the South China Morning Post, is dazhang, which means “fighting wars.” The phrase did not appear in last year’s directive.
While the official directive does not mention Japan, a commentary about the directive also appearing in the People’s Liberation Army Daily makes clear that Japan is the would-be adversary.
Regardless of what China intends with this directive, this language--and the response of the Chinese military to this directive--makes it more likely that we could be a radar lock away from a war.
I think Japan would win a war with China, but it would not be good news for anyone to fight a war.
And it risks widening in ways nobody can imagine right now. We could help in ways that keep us off the firing line, but who knows how China might lash out in frustration to attack our forces anyway?
Indeed, we are updating our understanding with Japan on how we would help each other fight in a war:
The revision to the guidelines, which set rules on how Japanese and U.S. forces work together in or near Japan, comes after a hawkish Abe led his Liberal Democratic Party to power in an election last month.
"We would like to discuss Japanese Self Defence Forces' role and U.S. forces role with eyes on the next five, 10, 15 years and on the security environment during those periods," a Defence Ministry official told reporters, without elaborating.
Dazhang is a two-edged sword.
I know it doesn't make sense for China to start a war over the Senkaku Islands. But people do stupid things. Especially when dazhang is on their to-do list.
