Little Frog. Big Pond

When speaking of French intervention in Mali, it is important to remember that the forces involved are pretty small, especially when you consider the vast space of Mali.

This is the force involved:

200 French troops from Chad (including, I believe, a Foreign Legion light armored recon platoon) plus a company of marines from France (I earlier read that another company is on the way). I think the total on the ground is under 600.

A small number of special forces attack helicopters (they have 12 total, and lost 1, so no more than 11 and probably much fewer).

Four Mirage fighters and 4 Rafale fighters, plus 2 Mirage recon aircraft. Shock and awe, it ain't.

Plus transport planes.

That's it.

There are also a small number of transport planes from French allies helping out.

The Mali army garrisons towns and bases until the jihadis attack, and then they run. I assume they abandon their equipment as they go.

Burkino Faso, Niger, and Senegal will each send 500-man battalions to Mali. One can hope they arrive before the jihadis are in the suburbs of Bamako. Nigeria, the "regional power," seems to assume that its troops can't hope to match the fighting spirit of the Mali army, and so have backed away from plans to send troops to lead their fellow West African states into Mali.

We've offered some drones plus our logistics and intelligence support.

And eventually, the British, Germans, and the EU will send trainers to whip the Mali troops in shape. Perhaps after an intensive training program, the Mali troops will bring their equipment as they run.

That's it. This is why I've long suggested a French Foreign Legion regiment as the core of an intervention force. The French have some good troops. The Foreign Legion and the marines will not run when they face the jihadis.

Send that regiment-sized force and the French can lead an attack north that will route the massed jihadis and allow the Burkino Faso, Niger, and Senegal battalions to follow to garrison cities in the north and allow the shaky Mali forces to move in and handle the remnants of the jihadis. It would be helpful to have an autonomy deal with the Tuaregs to gain their help against al Qaeda.

Don't do that and remain on defense, and the jihadis seem capable of shattering the Mali army in its present state.

UPDATE: France intends to commit 2,500 troops to the fight. Which seems a little light if you consider that some will be support personnel for the army and air force. The French still assume ECOWAS commits 3,300, although Nigeria just doesn't look like it could step up faster than the fall time line assumed.