Wednesday, January 30, 2013

One-Two Punch

If Israel has to fight Hezbollah, they would rather not face whatever it is they shot up coming into Lebanon from Syria.

I wonder what was in this convoy that the Israeli air force struck?

Israeli forces attacked a convoy on the Syrian-Lebanese border overnight, a Western diplomat and regional security sources said on Wednesday, as concern has grown in the Jewish state over the fate of Syrian chemical and advanced conventional weapons.

The sources, four in total, all of whom declined to be named because of the sensitivity of the issue, had no further information about what the vehicles may have been carrying, what forces were used or where precisely the attack happened.

The convoy wouldn't even need to have chemical weapons to draw Israeli attention. Longer-range rockets or anti-tank or anti-aircraft weapons would also be something the Israelis would prefer to deny Hezbollah.

I'll guess that the Israelis wouldn't want to strike Hezbollah while Assad is still viable to reduce the chance that Assad might do something really nuts in response.

But once Assad's forces break and run, I wouldn't be shocked to see the Israelis drive on Baalbek to really tear up Hezbollah while they are reeling from the loss of their Syrian rear area before they can adapt to the loss of Syrian support.

UPDATE: Another good reason for Israel to strike Hezbollah when Assad falls:

Militarily and politically, Hezbollah has much at stake in the Syrian conflict, but it is risking even more by attempting to save a pariah regime that may not be savable. The group has incurred hundreds of losses against Syrian rebels, including its valued special forces. Hezbollah cannot outmatch rebel manpower, and will need to commit its best fighters and most sophisticated equipment to cut rebel supply lines in the hopes of hindering a Damascus invasion force from gaining traction.

Hezbollah's best fighters may be left dead in Syria. Which means that the rockets that Hezbollah counts on to wage war on Israel can be overrun by an Israeli invasion that faces less effective opposition.