Mali forces are back in Konna after chasing the jihadis out, securing the staging area of Mopti and the nearby airfield at Severe (or Sevare) which appeared shaky enough after receiving the panicked defenders of Konna. Clearly, the French were crucial:
French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius confirmed that in Mali, France had carried out airstrikes. He refused to give details for security reasons.
France is operating helicopter gunships in Mali, two diplomats told The Associated Press. They spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the operation publicly. French special forces, who have been operating in the region recently, are also believed to be taking part in the military operation, one diplomat said.
The French lost one of their helicopters in the strikes. The cause is not clear.
The jihadis had an estimated 800-900 fighters in the strike. This is amusing:
Why the Islamists provoked a military strike by capturing the village of Konna on Thursday, a possible prelude to attacking bigger towns on their way to the capital, more than 300 miles away, remained unclear. They were not facing a military intervention for many months, and even then it was not expected to include Western forces.
It is amusing because somehow it makes no sense for al Qaeda to have taken the initiative to perhaps beat the awesome plan slowly unfolding before them. It is "unclear" why the jihadis didn't just enjoy their 9 months of security to enjoy the fruits of their jihad and be content to whip young girls and destroy cultural artifacts until the counter-attack begins in the autumn.
Now that the French have checked the jihadi advance, what does France do? The Malians are no more effective than they were when they ran from Konna. And the 3,000-strong ECOWAS forces that were authorized to move into Mali as soon as they can are not a cohesive force.
And what will al Qaeda do?
“Was this a move by A.Q.I.M. toward Bamako? Were they making a move to simply strengthen negotiating position, to gain a little more territory?” General Ham said. “The real question is, now what?” he said, adding that discussions were now under way among Washington, Paris and African governments in the region.
The big prize the Islamists evidently sought — capturing the major Malian government airfield nearby in Sévaré, which is vital for any military intervention in the north of Mali — seemed to be outside their grasp on Friday.
French special forces failed in a related rescue effort in Somalia to free one of their intelligence agents. What happens to a handful of French hostages held in West Africa by al Qaeda who appeared to be the only thing standing between French intervention in Mali is unclear. There was no rescue attempt for them, it seems.
Can French air strikes and special forces bolster the Mali defenders to hold the line at Konna? Will the original plan then continue? Or will the French need to send in conventional forces (hello Foreign Legion!) to bolster the Malians? Once in, will the French revise the plan to use their more capable forces to push north sooner than the autumn?
If jihadis are pushing south, have they stripped too many forces from controlling the population centers in the north? Are the Tuaregs, who have experienced buyer's remorse about their jihadi "allies," capable of an uprising in the north? Is the Mali government capable of making concessions on some autonomy that could persuade the Tuaregs to take that risk? That might make a better objective for French special forces.
Certainly, if I was in charge of the jihadis, I'd try to take Severe and the airport there, as well as capture Mopti. Do that and the jumping off point for the great counter-offensive north is pushed south considerably. Smash up the Mali army some more in the process, and maybe the plan is revised to push the great counter-offensive into 2014. And then maybe the French get tired of the costs of the expedition.
First, the jihadis need to retake Konna. Infiltrate past the small city to interdict the road south which will frighten the Mali defenders and perhaps harass the defenders of the Severe air base, and then hit the Konna defenders to hope that the French special forces aren't enough to keep the Mali troops steady on the line.
