Monday, January 21, 2013

The Algerian Expedition

As I suggested, al Qaeda's attack on Algeria from their Mali haven was a strategic mistake. They made the classic mistake of striking a country offering a little help to an enemy and providing that country with a reason to become a full enemy.

Al Qaeda struck Algeria because Algeria--already reluctant to work with France (remember that France waged a brutal war against Algerian independence half a century ago)--allowed French planes to use Algerian air space. Rather than enduring that limited help to France, al Qaeda in Mali may have brought Algeria more fully into the French efforts to defeat al Qaeda in the region:

The attack has also pushed France and Algeria — two nations with fraught relations due to bloody colonial ties — closer together over the need to combat these groups.

Prior to the attack, Algeria had long publicly opposed France's call for armed intervention to deal with the rise of extremist groups in northern Mali, citing the threat to regional stability and the chances of the crisis spilling over into its own desert regions.

Now, with the fight brought to Algeria's doorstep, al-Qaida-linked groups will be facing their old implacable enemy once more.

Unlike other Western nations, French officials refused to criticize Algeria for its strong-fisted handling of the Ain Amenas hostage ordeal.

Algeria fought a brutal war against Islamists in the 1990s. This is not an enemy al Qaeda wanted to bring into the fight. And it isn't a country likely to be intimidated by a dose of the ultra violence.

France has been cautious in its intervention, thus far. Algeria charged in more interested in killing jihadis than in rescuing hostages. May al Qaeda in Mali enjoy their Algerian Expedition.