The Chinese are rattling their sabres:
Six Chinese surveillance ships entered waters near disputed islands claimed by Tokyo and Beijing on Friday, raising the stakes in a long-running territorial row between Asia's two biggest economies.
China's foreign ministry said that the ships entered the disputed waters to carry out maritime surveillance and that for the first time China was carrying out a mission of "law enforcement over its maritime rights".
The Japanese warned them to leave, but only two complied. The Chinese military has been vaguely told to be ready for combat, without referencing the Senkakus.
China could decide to exploit a foreign crisis they believe is containable to navigate either their succession or their economic difficulties.
And who knows what agency could act too aggressively and trigger a war? If one of those agencies lands armed men and occupies the Senkakus, will China disavow that action and compel a retreat? Would China's new rulers want to admit that they lack full control of their own armed forces?
Or will China deploy their armed forces for combat to defend the islands that China claims are their own--and a core interest, too?
For us, we would be in a difficult position. We hardly want to go to war over the Senkakus. But we can hardly stand by while China simply takes them from our ally.
So we'd need to take steps to assist Japan in fighting for the islands without putting our forces in the line of fire.
Our military assistance should be focused on two major areas: freeing Japanese units to deploy against the Chinese; and limiting the scope of the war.
We could deploy ships and aircraft to watch North Korea and Russia, allowing Japanese assets to deploy south.
We could escort shipping to and from Japan by taking over aerial reconnaissance and naval patrols around Japan, freeing Japanese assets.
We could put up combat air patrols over Japan to defend Japanese air space in order to keep China from escalating the war to attacks on Japan proper.
Reinforcing Okinawa and defending that air space to make sure the island is a secure staging area for Japanese forces would be very important.
We could beef up our forces in Guam and get our nuclear subs lost at sea to make China look over their shoulder a bit and worry about what we could do if China escalates.
We could move prepositioned equipment for Marine forces to Japan as a sign of support and to get them closer to North Korea just in case.
We could use our reconnaissance assets to keep track of what China is doing.
And we'd need to airlift and ship needed military supplies to Japan so Japan can fight.
Fortunately, Japan is capable of defeating the Chinese in the air and at sea. The land component would be very small, given the size of the islands, thus minimizing China's ground strength advantage. With training and technology, Japan would actually have an edge in this aspect of the fighting. And we don't need to risk a bigger war in order to support Japan.
As a matter of intelligence, it would certainly be interesting to see if China could manage a battle that far out to sea.
The nuclear angle of a China-Japan confrontation would be problematic for Peking. If China even vaguely rattles a nuclear sabre should China lose the battle, what will Japan do? If we remind China that Japan remains under our nuclear umbrella, China risks escalation to nuclear war--over islets.
And if we don't step up to this nuclear guarantee and China wins the Battle for the Senkakus because Japan is afraid of getting nuked (again, I'll add), Japan would likely go nuclear to make sure they don't have to rely on uncertain American guarantees.
Which raises another point. If this comes to a fight with China starting the crisis in possession of the islands, Japan needs to retake the islands quickly before China can work up the nerve to threaten the use of nuclear weapons. We'd be operating under Cold War rules where fights must be settled in weeks rather than months our of fear of nuclear escalation.
Finally, a Chinese strike to take the islands would put every Asian state on notice that they'd better occupy and fortify the islands they claim in the South China Sea before China's growing power projection capabilities tempt China to grab those islands and dare them to take them back.
China would risk a lot to fight a battle over the Senkakus--whether China wins or loses. But they still might fight that battle because of domestic factors that rate higher. And "China" might not be the actor that starts the war.
UPDATE: A timely reminder that Chinese-Japanese tensions are our problem, too (tip to Mad Minerva).
UPDATE: Thanks to Mad Minerva for a mention.
I'd like to clarify that I only go into the things we can do to help Japan without direct intervention because I think Japan can handle China without our forces fighting at their side. One day, we may need to be involved directly from day one. But this is not that day.
