Sunday, September 16, 2012

Authorization to Use Force

China is stoking anti-Japanese demonstrations. What happens when Peking can't turn off the rage when it becomes inconvenient to the Communist Party? What happens if a faction in the party decides that a glorious little war is just what they need to gain power?

The controlled (for now) rage continues in China:

A six-deep cordon of anti-riot police guarded the Japanese embassy in Beijing as demonstrators resumed their protest on Sunday, screaming slogans and insults as they passed by and throwing plastic bottles full of water.

"If Japan does not back down we must go to war. The Chinese people are not afraid," said 19-year-old-student Shao Jingru.

Dissident artist Ai Weiwei, who walked by Sunday's protest in Beijing, told Reuters he believed the demonstrations were sanctioned by the government and the police.

"Chinese citizens need to thank the Japanese government because for the first time, they can mount a large protest on their own land," Ai said. "In China, there are no protests organised by the people."

And America is a target, too:

Police headed off a crowd of at least 2,000 protesters who were trying to charge the U.S. consulate in the southwestern city of Chengdu. Protesters said they wanted the United States "to listen to their voices".

The Chinese think this is an easy way to burn off anger in their people. Focus them on a hated foreign devil so the autocrats near them don't seem so bad. And turn it off before it gets out of hand.

But what happens if the Chinese people decide that the Chinese Communist Party is betraying China by failing to stand up for China?

"Do you realise what the Japanese are doing? Why are you beating your fellow Chinese?" Chengdu protesters shouted at the police after some of their number were roughed up.

What happens if a faction within China's party and military decide that running to the head of the riot is an easy way to gain popular support and bolster their bureaucratic position?

What happens if China starts a small crisis with Japan and Japan resists? Could China back down in the face of anger like this that holds Chinese officials responsible for not forcing Japan to back down over what China itself claims is a core interest?

We keep reassuring ourselves that it would make no sense for China to decide on war. I don't think we fully grasp what could make sense to them in their system.