Thursday, September 20, 2012

Not Everything is About Iran

Israeli troops staged an exercise to demonstrate their ability to quickly reinforce the Golan Heights. Such a deployment doesn't suggest an offensive into Syria as much as it suggests a hard shoulder to protect the eastern flank of a drive north into Hezbollah-held southern Lebanon.

Given Israel's post-2006 commitment to regaining their conventional edge, this is a good sign:

In the early hours of the morning, reservists were summoned from their homes by telephone after the end of the two-day Jewish New Year's holiday and told to report for duty.

Along with units of conscript soldiers, the troops were to be flown by helicopter from central Israel to the Golan Heights bordering Syria for a live-fire exercise, due to end later in the day and overseen by the chief artillery officer.

Israel Radio said the drill simulated a sudden outbreak of hostilities on Golan Heights that would require swift troop deployment.

Although the article implies the maneuvers are a signal to Iran over the nuclear question, what I find more significant is this information:

Israel Radio said large contingents were involved. Military sources said an even bigger exercise, which was announced in advance, was held for several days along the border with Lebanon two weeks ago.

That's the real focus. Or should be. Golan is a shield for the sword aimed at Hezbollah.

Israel's Iron Dome defenses against rocket attacks are nice, but with 40,000 rockets deployed up north, real air defenses consist of standing on the ground where the rockets are launched with your own troops:

I think that Israel goes north in a deep penetration to really tear up Hezbollah's infrastructure and to kill or capture their leaders and important personnel. The Israelis won't stop until they hold Baalbek.

Iron Dome will be more effective if the Hezbollah rocketeers are wetting their pants wondering how long they have to fire before they need to bug out and avoid being killed.

UPDATE: Why Israel might have some urgency in planning for a rapid and deep military operation to destroy Hezbollah in southern Lebanon:

Former Syrian general turned defector, Major-General Adnan Sillu, said that aside from plans to transfer weapons to Hezbollah, Syria had planned to use chemical weapons on the Syrian people, “as a last resort,” a report on the Israeli online edition of Haaretz said, quoting the Times.

I'm guessing Assad's definition of "last resort" is different from our use of the same term when talking about Iran's nuclear program.